EUCASS Krakow

PLENARY SESSION: LAUNCHERS PRESENT AND FUTURE

Jean-Marc ASTORG Director of Launchers

CONTEXT

 Ariane 5ECA is the first commercial launcher with 50% of the world market in 2014 and 65 success in a row.

 Competition is increasing with many initiatives with a never experienced dynamic.

 Ariane 6 is in development for a first flight in 2020 and a full operational capacity in 2023.

 Space in general attracts money and develops in all fileds: telecom, navigation, earth observation , science with spectacular inititiaves such as Mega Constellations,

What after Ariane 6 ?

2 EUCASS PLENARY SESSION LAUNCHERS: PRESENT AND FUTURE 1rst of July 2015 Situation awareness 2025 WHICH COMMERCIAL SPACE IN THE FUTURE ?

F9R GSLV Mk III H3 Angara A5 Steady future  Steady GEO satcom economy  Space Launch economy still dominated by GEO market  New launchers fielded by all usual suspects in an hyper- overcrowded sector  Moderate launch cost decrease (< 20% at gen N+1) F9 FHR CZ 6/7/5 ULA Atlas ISRO ULV 2020 2025 2030

Smallsat boom with non GEO HTS satcom economy economical models, new industry New GEO economical models, datacom rules, flexible payloads… Further vertical integration of the space economy Wild future  GEO satcom economy shake up  New space markets emergence  Disruptive new entrants with innovatives strategies Any other  Sharp launch cost cut economically viable 3 EUCASS PLENARY SESSION LAUNCHERS:Blue PRESENT Origin AND FUTURE 1rst of July 2015 F9M / F9MR reusable system Choosing a path to the future

A5, Vega, [N] Vega-C & [N+1] Vega-E & Souyz Ariane 6 Ariane 6 -E Beyond

[N+2] post A6

(

depending onsituation)

Incrementing Ariane… Reinventing Ariane Advanced concepts Staying within competition Get prepared for wild future Explore potential  Launch cost  by 20%  Further decrease on breakthroughs  A6 incremental approach in-orbit delivery  by 50%  New propulsion (e.g.  Improved modular design  New transport strategy, nuclear, magnetic sail…) to medium mission including in space TUG  New space missions,  Increased synergy  Reusability including exploration Vega/Ariane  Automation and 3D print  Disruptive launch concepts   design and prod cycles (e.g. stratoballoon…)

4 EUCASS PLENARY SESSION LAUNCHERS: PRESENT AND FUTURE 1rst of July 2015 5 EUCASS PLENARY SESSION LAUNCHERS: PRESENT AND FUTURE 1rst of July 2015 ROCKET ENGINES IN USE OR IN DEVELOPMENT

RS-68

M$ AR-1 ~14 M$ ? 50 M$ 2220 kN RD-180 3560 kN SC LOX/RP- 20 GG 1 LOX/LH2 ~ 7 M$ ? T/W= ? 110 kN Vulcain 2 T/W= 53 GG 10 ~12 M$ @ BE-4 LOX/LH2 7/y ~ 10 M$ ? 20 M$ T/W= 39 RL-10 1365kN 2400 kN 4150 kN 6 GG SC LOX/RP- LOX/LH2 LOX/CH4 1 T/W= 61 T/W= ? T/W= 78 Vinci 4 ~5.5 M$ @ 8/y 180kN Expander 3 LOX/LH2 Raptor T/W= 30 ~ 3 M$ ? BE-3 Viking 2300 kN XCOR ~ ? M$ ~1.1 M$ @ SC 2 LOX/CH4 ~ ? M$ 490 kN ?/y T/W=? 120kN LOX/LH2 750kN Expander T/W= ? N204/UDMH 1 LOX/RP-1 T/W= 90 NK-33 ~800 k$ T/W= ? 1,1 M$ 801kN 1638kN GG LOX/RP-1 0.8 Merlin 1D LOX/RP-1 T/W= 134 T/W= 150 kN 100 500 800 1000 2000 3000

6 EUCASS PLENARY SESSION LAUNCHERS: PRESENT AND FUTURE 1rst of July 2015 6 Under development Retired Active T/W: thrust to weight ratio Thématique A micro launcherLancement as a demonstratorpetits satellites ?

7 EUCASS PLENARY SESSION LAUNCHERS: PRESENT AND FUTURE 1rst of July 2015 CONCLUSIONS: LINE OF ACTIONS

 To consolidate the current launchers fleet exploitation until Ariane 6 / Vega-C:

 Increase of A5 GTO performance

 Competitiveness

 To develop Ariane 6 and VEGA-C as quickly as possible

 To actively prepare post A6 launchers with the pre-development of a future low-cost and potentially reusable engine:

 LOX/HC

 80-100 t Thrust

 Reusable

 Universal

8 EUCASS PLENARY SESSION LAUNCHERS: PRESENT AND FUTURE 1rst of July 2015