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A Case Study of the Victorian Surf Coast Region

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A Case Study of the Victorian Surf Coast Region Linking Climate Change, Tourist Destination Adaptation and Tourist Attitudes: A Case Study of the Victorian Surf Coast Region RYAN JOPP Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Centre for Tourism and Services Research Victoria University Melbourne, Australia February 2012 Declaration I, Ryan Jopp, declare that the PhD thesis entitled Linking Climate Change, Tourist Destination Adaptation and Tourist Attitudes: A Case Study of the Victorian Surf Coast Region is no more than 100,000 words in length including quotes and exclusive of tables, figures, appendices, bibliography, references and footnotes. This thesis contains no material that has been submitted previously, in whole or in part, for the award of any other academic degree or diploma. Except where otherwise indicated, this thesis is my own work. Signature Date i Acknowledgements My PhD journey has been both challenging and rewarding. I have grown significantly over this period, both professionally and personally. However, this project would not have been possible without the support of my family, friends and colleagues. First and foremost, I would like to thank my supervisors. To my principle supervisor, Professor Terry DeLacy, thank-you for your ongoing support throughout this project, your constructive advice and links to industry were essential to the success of this project. To my associate supervisor, Dr Judith Mair, thank-you for being so generous with your time and for responding to my countless questions, I am eternally grateful. To my associate supervisor, Dr Martin Fluker, I would like to extent my gratitude for both your ongoing support during the PhD process and your friendship throughout our time teaching together. Special thanks also to all members of the Centre of Tourism and Services Research, in particular thanks to my colleagues in the adjoining room, Dr Colin Drake, Dr Tulsi Bisht and Louise Klint. It was great to always have someone to bounce ideas off! I would also like to thank all the people involved in the field research for this project, including Tulsi once more, and my beautiful fiancé Bree. Further thanks to Paul Beames and his staff at Wildlife Tours Australia and the friendly staff of the Lorne and Torquay Visitor Information Centres. Finally, I am grateful to all the members of the Delphi study, you know who you are. Last, but certainly not least, I would like to give a big thank-you to my fiancé Bree, and my parents Keith and Wendy. Without your love and support I would not have made it to this point. ii Abstract The global tourism industry is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to its strong link to climate and natural ecosystems. Impacts such as warmer temperatures, increasingly frequent and intense storms, and sea level rise present a range of implications for tourism destinations from altered seasonality and increased risk of fire, to loss of beaches and erosion of coastal areas. Both destination infrastructure and ecosystems will be impacted and the ability to adapt to these impacts will ultimately influence destination’s long-term sustainability. A review of tourism sector adaptation frameworks found that none of the existing models focused on regional tourism destinations. This was deemed important as adaptation is best applied at the local level. The role of the tourist was also largely neglected, which was of some surprise given that tourism is a consumer driven industry, and it is the tourist who has the greatest adaptive capacity in terms of choosing when and where they go on holiday and the activities they engage in whilst they are there. Finally, the existing models tended to take a risk science approach and therefore did not fully consider the opportunities made possible by climate change. This thesis proposes a regional tourism adaptation framework (RTAF) model. The aim of the model is to provide a holistic representation of the steps involved in assessing a destination’s vulnerability and resilience, and developing an appropriate adaptation action plan. The RTAF model was applied to Victoria’s Surf Coast region as a single case study and a number of climate change impacts and adaptation options were identified. The study incorporated three research phases: a model development stage, a Delphi study and a tourist survey. The Delphi study involved two rounds of communication with experts on climate change, destination management and the Surf Coast region. Panel members were asked to identify the major climate change risks and opportunities for the Surf Coast region, as well as appropriate adaptation options. The adaptation options identified included the further development of early warning systems for extreme events, the construction of sea walls and the need for greater awareness and education throughout the tourism system. Potential opportunities identified included the ability to capitalise on the emergence of the so called “green” consumer and the potential to decrease seasonality and extend the peak summer season as regional temperatures increase. iii The Delphi study proved a valuable means of identifying and prioritising potential adaptation options. These options were then tested with consumers by administering tourist surveys throughout the Surf Coast region. The aim being to determine different market segments’ perceptions of the adaptation options identified in the Delphi study. Participants were asked to rate various adaptation options across a range of criteria. Also, in order to allow further statistical analysis information on participants ‘environmental worldview’ was collected using the New Ecological Paradigm (NEP). Overall, the sample responded positively towards the adaptation option to develop early warning systems for extreme events. These events could be fires, floods, or severe storms, or indeed any other form of man-made or natural disaster. Data analysis also showed that prior visitation, age, education, nationality and NEP score all played a role in determining respondent’s opinions of the different adaptation options presented. The case study analysis demonstrated that the RTAF model can play a role in identifying effective climate change adaptation strategies for regional tourism destinations. It gives all stakeholders greater insight into how a range of different climate change impacts are likely to impact on tourism at a regional destination level. In doing so it enables the identification of both potentially positive and negative climate change impacts and allows destination managers and policy-makers to make appropriate decisions regarding adaptation to both minimise potentially negative impacts and capitalise on potential opportunities. iv Publications Associated with this Thesis Refereed Journal articles: Jopp, R., De Lacy, T and Mair, J (2010) ‘Developing a Framework for Regional Destination Adaptation to Climate Change’ Current Issues in Tourism 13(6) pp 591-605 Jopp, R., Mair, J., DeLacy, T., & Fluker, M. (2012). ‘Using a Regional Tourism Adaptation Framework to Determine Climate Change Adaptation Options for Victoria's Surf Coast’ Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research (iFirst). Conference Papers: Jopp, R., DeLacy, T, Fluker, M & Mair, J (2011) “Towards an understanding of tourist responses to destination adaptation to climate change” Refereed working paper presented at CAUTHE February 2011 Adelaide, Australia. Jopp, R., De Lacy, T. and Mair, J. (2010) “Using the Delphi approach to determine climate change adaptation strategies for Victoria’s Surf Coast” Refereed working paper presented at CAUTHE February 2010 Hobart, Australia. Calgaro, E., DeLacy, T., Jiang, M., & Jopp, R. (2010) “Moving beyond impacts: Placing adaptation and resilience at the forefront of tourism development strategies” Paper presented at the Climate Change Adaptation Futures Conference, NCCARF 2010, Gold Coast, Australia. v Contents Declaration......................................................................................................................... i Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................... ii Publications Associated with this Thesis.......................................................................... v Contents ......................................................................................................................... vi List of Tables .................................................................................................................... x List of Figures .................................................................................................................. xi List of Acronyms ........................................................................................................... xiii Chapter 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Background to the Research ................................................................................... 1 1.2.1 Climate Change ............................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 Tourism ............................................................................................................ 3 1.2.3 The Tourist .....................................................................................................
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