Electoral Democratisation in Post-Civil War Guinea-Bissau 1999–2008

Electoral Democratisation in Post-Civil War Guinea-Bissau 1999–2008 DISCUSSION PAPER 66 ELECTORAL DEMOCRATISATION IN POST-CIVIL WAR GUINEA-BISSAU 1999–2008 LARS RUDEBECK NORDISKA AFRIKAINSTITUTET, UPPSALA 2011 Indexing terms: Guinea-Bissau Post-conflict reconstruction Democratization Elections Political parties Political participation Democracy Political conditions Economic conditions The opinions expressed in this volume are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Nordiska Afrikainstitutet. Language checking: Peter Colenbrander ISSN 1104-8417 ISBN 978-91-7106-706-7 © The author and Nordiska Afrikainstitutet 2011 Production: Byrå4 Print on demand, Lightning Source UK Ltd. Electoral Democratisation in Post-Civil War Guinea-Bissau 1999–2008 Contents Foreword .............................................................................................................................................................5 Acronyms ...........................................................................................................................................................6 Electoral democratisation: an introductory overview ........................................................................7 Democracy, democratisation and development ..................................................................................7 Breakdown and subsequent ‘normality’ in Guinea-Bissau, 1998–2006 .......................................9 War, transition and return to constitutional democracy, 1998–2000 .......................................9 Democracy without development ........................................................................................................9 Military putsch, September 2003 ........................................................................................................10 Second post-civil war parliamentary election March 2004 .......................................................10 Second post-civil war presidential election 2005 ..........................................................................10 Paradoxical outcome of presidential election, June-July-October 2005 ..............................11 Shifting coalitions and continuing instability .................................................................................12 What can be learnt? ..................................................................................................................................13 The elections ....................................................................................................................................................14 Never-arriving development ......................................................................................................................16 Democracy, democratisation and development – in the concrete .............................................17 Private and public in politics .................................................................................................................17 Democratisation and control over developmental resources ..................................................18 Democratisation and women’s representation ..............................................................................18 Power, culture and politics .....................................................................................................................19 A note on the international context ...................................................................................................21 The ‘solution’ ...............................................................................................................................................21 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................................... 22 References ...................................................................................................................................................... 23 Literature, reports, documents............................................................................................................ 23 Newspapers .................................................................................................................................................24 Appendix .......................................................................................................................................................... 25 Tables of general elections held in Guinea-Bissau, 1999–2005 ............................................... 25 Lars Rudebeck 4 Electoral Democratisation in Post-Civil War Guinea-Bissau 1999–2008 Foreword This Discussion Paper provides a theoretical exploration of the challenges facing democracy and development in Africa, drawing on the case of Guinea-Bissau, recently recovering from a decade of violent conflict and political instability. In critically examining a phenomenon the paper conceptualises as ‘democracy without development,’ the author demonstrates the ‘limitations of democratic constitutionalism, epitomised by general multiparty elections.’ It is argued that democratic constitutionalism weakly rooted in the political, economic and cultural structures of societies is most likely to result in instability and underde- velopment. This implies that liberal democracy fails to deliver equality in prac- tice in societies characterised by mass poverty and wide inequalities. This is the backdrop to the case study of the attempts at post-conflict democratisation in Guinea-Bissau between 1998 and 2009. By analysing the cycle of military intervention, political assassination and instability, the paper demonstrates the inability of electoral democracy to address the everyday survival challenges that the people face, and their aspirations. The author also explores the role of the international aid, noting that it has fuelled dependence and undermined Guin- ea-Bissau’s autonomy. In seeking ways to resolve the dilemma of ‘democracy without development,’ the author notes that the real challenge lies in making ‘needs’ and ‘resources’ meet, a process that would require political, economic and cultural transformation. This Discussion Paper provides its readers with a profound theoretical and empirical background for understanding the challenges of democratisation and development in one of West Africa’s most fragile post-conflict countries. Cyril Obi Senior Researcher The Nordic Africa Institute 5 Lars Rudebeck Acronyms AD Acção Democrática/Democratic action APU Aliança Popular Unida/Popular united alliance FCG-SD Fórum Cívico Guineense – Social Democracia/Guinean civic forum – social democracy FDS Frente Democrática Social/Democratic social front FLING Frente da Libertacão Nacional da Guiné/Guinea’s national liberation front HDI Human Development Index LIPE Liga Guinense de Protecção e Desenvolvimento Ecológico/Guinean league for ecological protection and development MDG Movimento Democrático Guineense/Guinean Democratic Movement PAIGC Partido Africano da Independência da Guiné e Cabo Verde/African party for the independence of Guinea and Cape Verde PDSG Partido Democrático Socialista Guineense/Guinean democratic socialist party PMP Partido do Manifesto do Povo/Party of the people’s manifesto PND Partido da Nova Democracia/Party of the new democracy PRID Partido Republicano da Independência e do Desenvolvimento/Republi- can party for independence and development PRP Partido da Renovação e Progresso/Party for renewal and progress PRS Partido da Renovação Social/Party for social renewal PSD Partido Social Democrata/Social democratic party PS Partido Socialista/Socialist party PU Plataforma Unida/United platform PT Partido do Trabalho/Party of labour PUN Partido da União Nacional/Party of national union PUSD Partido Unido Social Democrata/United social democratic party RGB Resistência da Guiné-Bissau/Guinea-Bissau’s resistance RGB/MB Resistência da Guiné-Bissau - Movimento Bâ-Fatá /Guinea-Bissau’s resistance – Bâ-Fatá-movement UE União Eleitoral/Electoral union UM União para a Mudança/Union for change UNDP União Nacional para o Desenvolvimento e Progresso/National union for development and progress 6 Electoral Democratisation in Post-Civil War Guinea-Bissau 1999–2008 Electoral democratisation: an introductory overview Viewed in broad historical perspective (Rudebeck 2002 and 2003) constitutionalism, as rule by law, without democracy, has existed for centuries in the so- called Western historical experience. But what I like to call ‘the democratisation of constitutionalism’ (2001:20; 2002(a):175) in the ‘West’ (or ‘North’) through universal suffrage and civil rights for all is a recent outcome of growing popular influence and power in society. Nowhere does it date further back at the national level than to the second half of the 19th century. In the even more recent processes of democratisation in the postcolonial ‘South,’ beginning in the late 1980s, democratic constitutionalism – epitomised most vividly by general multiparty elections – has tended to come as a ready-made package, largely from the outside and above, straight into societies marked by quite limited popular sovereignty or citizen autonomy. Consequently, democratisation, although welcomed by the people, is still often weakly rooted in the institutional structure of the societies concerned, as illustrated not least by recent ‘post-conflict’ situations.1 Electoral democratisation alone does not ensure democracy.

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