AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP
PROJECT: ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAMME
COUNTRY: SOMALIA
PROJECT APPRAISAL REPORT
Public Disclosure Authorized Disclosure Public
Authorized
Public Disclosure Disclosure Public
RDGE/PICU July 2019
Table of contents Currency Equivalents ...... i Fiscal Year ...... i Weights and Measures ...... i Acronyms and Abbreviations...... ii Grant Information ...... iii Project Summary ...... iv Results-Based Logical Framework ...... vi Project Timeframe...... viii
1. STRATEGIC THRUST & RATIONALE ...... 1 1.1 Project Linkages with Country Strategy and Objectives ...... 1 1.2 Rationale for Bank’s involvement ...... 1 1.3 Donors Coordination ...... 2
2. PROJECT DESCRIPTION ...... 3 2.1 Project Objectives ...... 3 2.2 Project Components ...... 4 2.4 Project Type ...... 5 2.5 Project Cost and Financing Arrangements...... 5 2.6 Project’s Target Area and Beneficiaries ...... 7 2.7 Participatory Process for Project Identification, Design and Implementation ...... 7 2.8 Bank Group Experiences and Lessons Reflected in Project Design ...... 8 2.9 Key Performance Indicators...... 8
3. PROJECT FEASIBILITY 3.1 Economic and Financial Performance ...... 9 3.2 Environmental and Social Impacts ...... 9
4. IMPLEMENTATION...... 12 4.1 Implementation Arrangements ...... 12 4.2 Procurement…………………………………………………………………………………………….13 4.3 Financial Management and Disbursement Arrangements…………………………………….13 4.4 Monitoring ...... 14 4.5 Governance ...... 15 4.6 Sustainability ...... 16 4.7 Risk Management ...... 16 4.8 Knowledge Building ...... 18
5. LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY ...... 18 5.1 Legal Instrument ...... 18 5.2 Conditions Associated with Bank’s Intervention...... 18 5.3 Compliance with Bank Policies ...... 19
6. RECOMMENDATION ...... 20
Appendix I: Country’s Comparative Socio-Economic Indicators ...... I Appendix II: Bank’s Ongoing Operations in Somalia ...... II Appendix III: Fragility Context in Somalia ...... III Appendix IV: Detailed project costs ...... V Appendix V : Project Map ...... VI i
Currency Equivalents As of May 2019 1 Unit of Account (UA) = 1 SDR 1 Unit of Account (UA) = 1.388 United States Dollars (USD) 1 Unit of Account (UA) = 1.236 European Euro (EURO) 1 Unit of Account (UA) = 809.93 Somalian Shilling (SOS)
Fiscal Year Somalia: January 1 – December 31
Weights and Measures 1 metric tonne (t) = 2,205 lbs. 1 kilogram (kg) = 2.205 lbs. 1 meter (m) = 3.281 ft 1 millimeter (mm) = 0.03937 inch (“) 1 kilometer (km) = 0.62 mile 1 hectare (ha) = 2.471 acres
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Acronyms and Abbreviations
ADF African Development Fund AfDB African Development Bank AWP&Bs Annual Work Plans and Budgets BPMP Bank Procurement Methods and Procedures CB Country Brief CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment CPPR Country Portfolio Performance Review CSP Country Strategy Paper CT Country Team DINA Drought Impact Needs Assessment DP Direct Payment EA Executing Agency EDF European Development Fund EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessment ESMP Environmental and Social Management Plan EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FGS Federal Government of Somalia FM Financial Management FMS Federal Member State GBV Gender-based Violence GDP Gross Domestic Product GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit HIV/AIDS Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome IDP Internally Displaced Persons INA Infrastructure Needs Assessments MoF Ministry of Finance MOPIED Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development MPWR&H Ministry of Public Works, Reconstruction and Housing MTP Medium Term Plan NDP National Development Plan NGO Non-Governmental Organization NHRC National Human Rights Commission NPS New Partnership for Somalia NPV Net Present Value PAP Project Affected Person PCN Project/Programme Concept Note PBA Performance Based Allocation PIU Project Implementation Unit PMT Project Management Team PFMS Public Financial Management System PWG Pillar Working Group RAP Resettlement Action Plan RMCs Regional Member Countries RoW Right of Way RRF Recovery and Resilience Framework SA Special Account SC Steering Committee SDRF Somalia Development and Reconstruction Facility SIF Somalia Infrastructure Fund STI Sexually Transmitted Infection STRERP Short-Term Regional Emergency Response Project TSF Transition Support Facility TSNAIP Somalia Transport Sector Needs Assessment and Investment Programme TST Triple Surface Treatment UA Unit of Account UNDP United Nations Development Programme
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Grant Information
GRANT RECIPIENT: FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF SOMALIA EXECUTING AGENCY: MINISTRY OF PUBLIC WORKS, RECONSTRUCTION AND HOUSING (MPWR&H)
Financing plan
Source Amount (UA) Amount (EUR) Instrument TSF Pillar I1 4.630 million 5.722 million Grant ADF 14 PBA (50%) 7.500 million 9.268 million Grant European Commission Contribution (11th EDF) 33.535 million 41.450 million Grant Federal Government of Somalia 2.830 million 3.500 million Counterpart TOTAL COST 48.495 million 59.940 million
NPV (baseline scenario) USD 0.79-77.99.million EIRR (baseline scenario) 13-23%
Timeframe - Main Milestones (expected)
Concept Note Approval February 2019 Project Approval July 2019 Effectiveness September 2019 Completion Date December 2024 Closing Date December 2025
1 Includes EUR3.255million (UA2.630million) contribution by the Government of Italy iii
PROJECT SUMMARY
Project Overview: The Road Infrastructure Programme aims to improve management of the road sector at the national level and improve transport connectivity for road users in the targeted road corridors for rehabilitation while reinforcing the capacities of federal and regional institutions that manage road infrastructure. The programme entails: (i) rehabilitation and surface dressing of 82km (BeledWeyne-Kalabeyr 22km; and Dhusamareb-Qaradhi 60km) of the existing 327km, 7.3m wide BeledWeyne-Galkayo paved road; (ii) rehabilitation and surface dressing of 85 km (Galkayo-Faratoyo) of the existing 240km, 7.3m wide Galkayo-Garowe paved road; (iii) rehabilitation and construction of the existing 80km, 7.3m wide Luuq, Ganane-Dolow earth road to gravel road standard; and (iv) new construction of 100 km, 7.3m wide Galkayo-Elgula (part of 241km Galkayo-Hobyo feeder road) to compacted gravel standard and Feasibility study, environmental and social impact assessment and detailed engineering design of 280km Lowyaddo-Farddaha-Borama road.
In addition, this programme includes technical assistance and capacity building activities which will result in reinforced policies, laws and regulations, institutions, and ability to guide planning, design, building, maintenance and monitoring of roads, and deliver road transportation services that are gender-responsive, environmental friendly, and climate resilient at federal and regional levels. The programme, with estimated cost of EUR59.940million, will be implemented in the states of Puntland, Jubaland, Galmudug, Hirshabelle, South West and Somaliland, over a 55-month period, from 2019 to 2023, including the defects liability period. The programme will significantly benefit Somalia in targeted sub-regions of Jubaland, Puntland, Galmudug, , Hirshabelle and Somali land by enhancing the incomes of those living in proximity to the construction sites. Good road infrastructure will improve the environment for the private sector to increase its participation in the economy, through higher trade flows, movement of people, goods and services, which is bound to raise the living standards of local communities. The programme will offer direct construction jobs to the Somali youth who live in proximity to the roads that will be rehabilitated. The technical assistance and capacity-building component will benefit the Federal Government of Somalia’s (FGS’) MPWRH and infrastructure agencies in all the Federal Member States (FMS) of Puntland, Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Jubaland, South West States and Somaliland.
Needs Assessment: The Somali transport sector has suffered from a lack of maintenance of infrastructure, leading to its near disappearance (especially roads), weakening of institutions hence the need to repair, rebuild, and re-create institutional frameworks. Restoring and enhancing connectivity is vital for both economic revitalization and political integration. The total length of the primary/main roads is 4,124 km, of which 2,860 km are paved and 1,264 km are unpaved or a gravel surface. The condition of the paved roads can be classified as poor since more than 90% of the roads that have deteriorated are beyond their design life. The total length of secondary, feeder and coastal roads is about 7,310 km. These roads are mostly a gravel or earthen surface and in very poor condition. These translate to extended journey times and much higher costs of public and private transport, leading to high fares and operating costs resulting in higher cost of goods and services. In this regard, urgent intervention to improve travel times and reduce vehicle operating costs among other economic benefits is highly required. Sections of the roads proposed for repairs in this project are in very poor conditions and difficult to traverse, leading to lack of economic growth through poor access, and high vehicle operating costs. The FGS is determined to repair poor infrastructure in the FMS to drive economic growth, thus providing many peace dividends through visibility and improved conditions for the population in the regions. Through the NDP 2017-19, the FGS recognises the importance of infrastructure in attracting investment and developing a competitive and prosperous private sector led economy.
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Bank’s Value Added: The AfDB has over the years played a key role in supporting infrastructure development and promoting regional integration in the Horn of Africa and in its Regional Member Countries (RMCs) in general. The Bank has 12 ongoing projects in Somalia with a total commitment of UA81.06million in agriculture, water and sanitation, multi and social sectors.
The Bank Group Ten Year Strategy (2013-2022) emphasises infrastructure development and this programme will particularly contribute to the High 5 priorities of “Integrate Africa” (via connectivity of corridors and transport facilitation), “Feed Africa” (via transportation of agricultural products and livestock) and “Improve the quality of life of the people of Africa” (via wealth creation, poverty eradication, access to social amenities and infrastructure facilities. Also, the project is aligned with the Bank’s Strategy for Addressing Fragility and Building Resilience in Africa. The proposed project provides an opportunity for the Bank to consolidate its contribution in the transport and infrastructure development sector and fostering regional integration.
Knowledge Management:
The proposed intervention draws on the Somalia Transport Sector Needs Assessment Studies of October 2016 which recommended integrated investment in infrastructure and key transport corridors. The Bank’s financing of numerous projects in the region and partnership with the government of Somalia and other development partners active in Somalia has meant that the Bank has acquired extensive depth and breadth of knowledge in designing, financing, implementing, monitoring and supervising infrastructure and transport projects.
As the Bank’s core mandate is to finance development projects in its RMCs, operations knowledge constitutes the foundation for the Bank Group’s knowledge resources. Operations knowledge that will be gained from the project will be disseminated and this will in turn guide the design and implementation of future projects in fragile states.
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Results-Based Logical Framework
Project name: Road Infrastructure Programme Purpose of the project: To improve economic growth, strengthen institutional capacity, enhance connectivity, accessibility and to promote social development and stability in Somalia Performance indicators Results chain Means of verification Assumptions/Risks/mitigation measures Indicator (including CSI) Baseline 2019 Target 2025
Impact: 1. Economic growth rate 1. GDP at 2.5% 1. GDP growth to 5.5% National, regional and Contribute to economic growth, 2. Volume of exports 2. 16% of GDP 2. 25% of GDP international reports and improved livelihood, peace and economic surveys.
Impact stability.
Outcome 1 1. Annual average daily traffic 1. 274 vehicles/day 1. 327 MPWR&H reports, and Risks: Inadequate skills and project management Improved mobility, accessibility and 2. Average speed on rehabilitated 2. 30km/h 2. 60km/h programme progress capacity of MPWR&H to effectively manage connectivity roads 3. 3Hours 20minutes 3. 1Hour 40 minutes reports project. Short-lived benefits from inadequate 3. Average travel time (100km) 4. Not available (reduction by 50% maintenance to ensure sustainability. Higher than expected growth of urban traffic. 4. Average vehicle operating cost 4. reduction by 30% Mitigating Measures: Training of MPWR&H Outcome 2 1. No. of staff whose skills have 1. 0 1. (200) staff on project management skills by project. TA Capacity of public works authority been enhanced provided on road management /contracting
Outcomes staff enhanced (skilled staff in road methodologies. construction industry) Outcome 3 1. No. of jobs created 1. 0 1. 300 (40% women) Local jobs opportunities Component 1: Civil Works: 1.1. Length of upgraded paved 1.1. 0 km 1.1. 175 km Programme progress, Risks: Delays in compensation payment and 1.1 Rehabilitation of roads roads with surface dressing (TST) 1.2. 0 km 1.2. 180 km reports and MPWR&H resettlement, cost overrun 1.2 upgrading of roads to grave 1.2. Length of roads rehabilitated to 1.3. No ESMP to 1.3. Full compliance to reports, supervision reports Mitigating Measures standards gravel standards implement and ESMP and 2500 trees and Project completion 3.1 Extensive consultation between the Bank, MPWR&H and collaboration among all parties to 1.3 1.2. ESMP and forestation 1.3. Execution of the ESMP and tree no.trees panted report ensure compensation and resettlement issues are planting finalise prior to start of civil works construction. Apply adequate contingencies in cost estimates and effective Technical Assistance service
Outputs Risk: Fragility, insecurity, political instability in Somalia, which can lead to delays in project implementation. Also, disagreements between the FGS, FMS, NGOs, public, etc. Mitigation: Continuous assurances that FGS will take necessary precautions and also provide necessary security during/after implementation
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Component 2: Capacity Building 2.1. No. of local staff recruited 2.1. 0 2.1. 30 Baseline assessment and Risk: Adequacy of political commitment of and Technical Assistance 2.2. No. of TAs recruited 2.2. 0 2.2. 6 subsequent programme federal and state infrastructure agencies to create progress/ performance partnerships to strengthen the institutions and reports performance of the road transport sector Mitigation: Sustainability of the policies by the FGS and States to invest in the road transport sector as top priority. Commitment by FGS and States to enhance their policies of private sector participation in road transport sector. FGS and the concerned states will identify suitable counterparts for training Component 3: Consultancy 3.1. Completed designs/reports N/A 3.1. Completed Programme progress Risk: Delay in procuring consultancy services; Services 3.2. Audit reports designs/reports reports recruitment of incompetent consultants 3.3. No. of sensitization events and 3.2. Audit reports Mitigation: Advance procurement; transparency in procurement processes road safety campaigns 3.3. 5 3.4 ESMP implementation 3.4. ESMP implementation completed Component 4: Project 4.1. No. of specialists procured 5.2 0 5.1. 3
Management 4.2. Communication and visibility 5.3 0 5.2. N/A Component 5: Compensation and 5.1. No. of PAPs compensated 4.1. 0 4.1.102 Risk: FGS failure to disburse counterpart funds. Resettlement 5.2. No. of social amenities built 4.2. 0 4.2 3 Mitigation – ensure commitment by the FGS by
5.1 Compensation of PAPs budgeting for this. 5.2. provisions of social amenities
Component 1. Civil Works Costs - million EUROS and UA: Sources of financing (million EUROS and UA) i) Rehabilitation and construction of a) 82km: BeledWeyne-Kalabeyr(22km) & Dhusamareb-Qaradhi(60km); b) 85km Galkayo-Faratoyo (of Galkayo-Garowe), c) EUR UA EUR UA % 100km Galkayo-Elgula (of Hobyo-Galkayo), and d) Luuq Ganane- Dolow including Civil works 38.690 31.303 TSF Pillar I 5.722 4.630 9.55 ESMP and tree planting Capacity building & TA 3.370 2.727 ADF 14 PBA (50%) 9.268 7.500 15.46 Component 2. Capacity Building and Technical Assistance Consultancy services 6.244 5.052 European Commission 41.450 33.535 69.15 (i) Recruitment of TA experts and local staff who will become civil servants Project management 3.699 2.993 Contribution (11th EDF) (ii) Training Compensation/resettlement 3.500 2.832 Federal Government of 3.500 2.830 5.84 (iii) Training Needs Assessment Somalia Component 3. Consultancy Services Base Costs 55.503 44.905 Total 59.940 48.495 100.00 (i) Preliminary designs and detailed engineering designs Physical Contingencies 3.251 2.632 (ii) Feasibility study of 280km Lowyaddo-Farddaha-Borama road Price Contingencies 1.186 0.958 (iii) Construction supervision services Total Project Costs 59.940 48.495 (iv) Technical/financial audits, road safety audit. sensitization: community awareness-raising on HIV/AIDS and human trafficking. Component 4: Project Management (i) Recruitment of procurement, Financial Management and monitoring and evaluation consultants (ii) Communication and visibility Component 5. Compensation and Resettlement (i) Compensation of PAPs and provision of social infrastructure
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Project Timeframe
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SOMALIA
REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE MANAGEMENT TO THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS ON THE PROPOSED ADF/TSF/EU- EDF GRANTS TO SOMALIA FOR THE ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAMME
Management submits the following report and recommendation on a proposed ADF 14 PBA (50%) Grant of UA7.5 million, TSF Pillar 1 Grant of UA4.63 million, and the European Commission contribution of EUR41.45million to the Road Infrastructure Programme .
1. STRATEGIC THRUST & RATIONALE
1.1 Project Linkages with Country Strategy and Objectives 1.1.1 Despite decades of war and conflict that have impacted significantly on the economy of Somalia, the country has taken decisive steps on the political front to rebuild itself. The decades of civil war have resulted in insecurity which has undermined the legitimacy of the State, thus creating vulnerabilities particularly among the youth. Also, a dysfunctional governance systems and dilapidated infrastructure have continued to give rise to extreme poverty. Somalia is showing promising signs of increased stabilisation through formation of recognized state institutions, fostering a country-owned and led approach to transition from fragility. The Authorities hope that enhancing security, reinforcing institutional capabilities, and rebuilding strategic infrastructure will deliver on its socio- economic development aspirations, as defined in the country’s National Development Plan (NDP) 2017- 2019. The Road Infrastructure Programme is aligned to the NDP which emphasises the need to eliminate constraints including poor infrastructure, bad governance, weak human resource capacity, and ineffective public service delivery that hinder the private sector from playing its pivotal role of enhancing growth in key sectors such as agriculture (crops and livestock), services, and natural resources.
1.1.2 The Programme is within the context of the Bank’s Country Brief (CB) 2017-20 that is aligned to Somalia’s NDP 17-19 as it aims to directly support the Plan’s pillars associated with effective and efficient institutions, restoring strategic infrastructure, and building resilience. The CB’s overarching objective is to build longer term resilience in Somalia, through targeted support to the development of relevant infrastructure, institutional capacity, and skills, and is anchored on two main pillars: (i) Rebuilding key infrastructure to enhance resilience and diversify livelihoods; and (ii) Institutional capacity building and skills development for improved governance and job creation. The project cuts across the two pillars given its focus on hard and soft infrastructure. The request for utilization of the 50% of the grant component of the PBA allocation for Somalia (equivalent to UA7.5 million) was approved under the Short-Term Regional Emergency Response Project (STRERP) 21st July 2017. However, STRERP financing eventually came from the TSF unallocated reserve. Therefore, the grant component of the ADF PBA allocation for Somalia is proposed to be utilized for financing the project.
1.2 Rationale for Bank’s involvement 1.2.1 Transport infrastructure in Somalia has suffered from years of neglect, and conditions have deteriorated due to the challenges of carrying out maintenance and improvement works in the prevailing difficult institutional and security environment. Somalia is the fifth poorest country in the world, with an estimated per capita income of USD 435 based on IMF study. Poor roads, expensive electricity and inefficient ports, among other infrastructure problems, increase the cost of doing business and reduce the industrial competitiveness in the country. Rehabilitation of feeder roads and some connections to key locations within Somalia (urban areas and/or ports) and the country’s neighbors to
1 improve access to domestic, regional, and international markets have been identified as one of the comprehensive solutions for upgrading of the livestock and crop sectors’ value chains. The FGS acknowledges the importance of infrastructure in attracting investment and developing a competitive and prosperous private sector led economy through the NDP 2017-19. To this end, the FGS requested the Bank to support infrastructure planning and development, which is the basis for the Bank’s establishment of the AfDB Multi-Partner Somali Infrastructure Fund (SIF). Within the context of the Bank’s Strategy for Addressing Fragility and Building Resilience in Africa, the Fund’s goal is to support and accelerate Somalia’s inclusive and sustainable economic recovery, peace and state building. The Fund will achieve this through efficient and effective intermediation of development assistance targeted towards the rehabilitation and development of Somalia’s transport Infrastructure as well as related institutional capacity building. Prior to the establishment of the SIF, the Bank, in collaboration with the FGS and development partners, undertook Infrastructure Needs Assessments (INA) for the Energy, Water & Sanitation, Transport and ICT sectors. Priority projects were identified through the INAs and consolidated in an initial (five-year) pipeline of projects (of about US$ 360 million) to be financed through the SIF. The SIF Pipeline of projects forms the core of projects under the Infrastructure Pillar of Somalia’s NDP 2017-19. In the transport sector, Somalia’s NDP 2017-2019 incorporates the SIF’s pipeline of road transport investment projects to the tune of US$ 137 million. Somalia, expects these projects to be externally grant-funded, as the country has insufficient finances.
1.2.2 The programme is addressing constraints related to poor road infrastructure and the lack of sufficient regulatory and technical capacity to oversee reconstruction and maintain road infrastructure. All these elements were identified through the Somalia Transport Sector Needs Assessment and Investment Programme (TSNAIP) that was supported jointly by the EU and AfDB, and are part of the SIF pipeline and NDP 2017-19. The TSNAIP is a comprehensive pre-feasibility study that includes road transport demand and supply analysis and forecasts of traffic connections on all main and feeder roads in Somalia. This programme will contribute towards the achievement of the Bank’s High Five priorities within the context of the Ten Year Strategy. In particular, the planned interventions will enable the Bank to tangibly deliver on the Feed Africa Strategy for Agricultural Transformation in Africa 2016-2025 by improving infrastructure to facilitate transportation of agricultural goods. Other High Fives that will be advanced through this programme include “Integrate Africa” and “Improve the quality of life of the people of Africa”. Moreover, the project is aligned to the Bank’s Private Sector Development Strategy, which, among other objectives, seeks to improve Africa’s investment and business climate. The programme is also aligned with the Bank’s Regional Integration Strategy 2018-2025 that aims to create the next global market in Africa, by promoting hub ports and road corridors that open landlocked countries to international trade.
1.3 Donors Coordination
1.3.1 During the London Conference on Somalia held in May 2017, the FGS and international community agreed on a New Partnership for Somalia (NPS) to facilitate implementation of the NDP 2017-19. The NPS commits Somalia to an ambitious set of much-needed reforms on economic recovery, security, governance and public financial management, in return for sustained international support to the NDP. The current aid architecture builds on and reinforces the mechanisms and frameworks that were set up for implementing the COMPACT2 (in particular Somalia Development Reconstruction Facility
2 The New Deal is a fresh way of approaching a country’s transition out of fragility. Recognizing that a shift was needed in how international assistance is provided, the “New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States” was developed to better manage risks, increase the use of country systems, and increase the predictability of aid. Donors committed to helping fragile and conflict-affected states improve their ability to govern and to make development more responsive to the needs and concerns of citizens, by strengthening national capacities and improving transparency and accountability. The President of Somalia in late
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(SDRF) aid coordination bodies and funding mechanisms). The Somalia Partnership Forum serves as the highest platform for dialogue and policy discussions. The SDRF Steering Committee (SC) provides strategic oversight and guidance for the SDRF funds, while Pillar Working Groups (PWG) are the technical forums for sectoral policy dialogue, formulation, planning and programmatic co-ordination. The current coordination arrangement is effective with development partners, the FGS Ministers and FGS Ministries as well as Ministries of the FMS meeting regularly in Somalia and Nairobi. A performance and milestones-based “Mutual Accountability Framework” has since been developed to better measure implementation progress.
1.3.2 The Bank’s Multi-Partner Somalia Infrastructure Fund (SIF) is one of the SDRF Funds. The programme will be delivered within the SIF framework. As such, decision-making processes for the project will follow a dual track. Within the Bank, these processes will be consistent with standard Bank procedures applicable for TSF. Under the SDRF arrangement, the programme concept and appraisal report were endorsed by the SDRF SC. The programme also underwent technical discussions withi²²n the infrastructure Pillar Working Group (PWG). The Bank actively engages in the infrastructure PWG and currently co-chairs the Transport and ICT sub-working group. The infrastructure PWG draws its membership from different stakeholders including government representatives from both the Federal and State levels, development partners and private sector representatives. The PWG also provides a platform for monitoring progress of the project and discussing solutions on common challenges. Furthermore, the SIF hosts quarterly forums with participants as SIF current and potential donors. The forums provide platforms for discussing and addressing issues related to SIF operations, including pipeline of future activities and reviewing reports on SIF financed activities.
1.3.3 To date, the AfDB, the World Bank , EU, NIS foundation, Turkish Government, USAID and Italy Cooperation are actively participating in the transport sector. The portfolio of other donors is generally featured in humanitarian, security, agriculture, health, capacity building and education sectors.
2. PROJECT DESCRIPTION
2.1 Project Objectives 2.1.1 The project’s overall development objective is to support and improve Somalia’s economic growth by providing enhanced transport facilities that are reliable and cost effective, with a view to improving accessibility to services and transportation of persons and goods which will support economic and social development, as well as improving the stability of the country.
2.1.2 The specific objectives are to:: i) improve the management of the road sector at the national level, and in the states of Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Jubaland, Puntland and South West regions of Somalia, and ii) conduct Feasibility study, detailed engineering design and environmental and social impact assessment for the proposed Lowyaddo (Boarder with Djibout) –Farddaha – Borama Road (iii) enhance transport connectivity for road users in targeted road corridors in Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Jubaland and Puntland. The roads identified for intervention are: BeledWeyne-Galkayo road (BeledWeyne – Kalabeyr-(22km) and Dhusamareb-Qarathi –(60km) sections), Galkayo-Garowe road (Galkayo – Faratoyo -85km section),
2012 committed to implementing the New Deal process and principles in Somalia, and towards establishing a single overarching framework (COMPACT) for all international donor and partner engagement with the country. Through the COMPACT the Somalis and the international community agreed on the most important priorities in five areas called the Peace and State building Goals (PSGs): (1) inclusive politics; (2) security; (3) justice; (4) economic foundations; and (5) revenue and services.
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Galkayo-Hobyo gravel feeder road (Galkayo – Elgula-100km section), and Luuq, Ganane-Dolow earth road (80km).
2.1.3 The key outcomes include improved road connectivity and access to health and education services and markets for neighbouring communities; reduced travel times and costs; increased economic productivity, employment opportunities, regional integration and enhanced institutional capacity.
2.2 Project Components The project components are summarised in Table 2.1 below
Table 2.1: Project components and description Components Cost Cost UA EUR (million) (million) 1. Civil Works: this component involves rehabilitation and construction: 38.690 31.303 i) BeledWeyne-Galkayo existing 327 km, 7.3 m wide paved road [proposed intervention: rehabilitation and paving with surface dressing. 82 km selected stretches BeledWeyne- Kalabeyr (22km); & Dhusamareb-Qaradhi,(60km)]; ii) Galkayo-Garowe existing 240 km, 7.3 m wide paved road (proposed intervention: rehabilitation and paving with surface dressing. 85 km selected stretch: Galkayo- Faratoyo); iii) Galkayo-Hobyo 241 km, 7.3 m wide feeder road (proposed intervention: new construction of 100 km compacted gravel road Galkayo-Elgula); and iv) Luuq, Ganane-Dolow existing 80 km, 7.3 m wide earth road (proposed intervention: rehabilitation and construction of the entire 80km to compacted gravel road standard). 2. Capacity Building and Technical Assistance for the FGS MPWR&H and 3.37 2.727 Infrastructure Ministries in the FMSs of Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Jubaland, Puntland and South West States. The component includes: • Recruitment in the 5 FMS of local staff/experts who will eventually become permanent staff • Recruitment in the MPWR&H of: i) local staff/experts who will eventually become permanent civil servants ; ii) short-term specialised expertise for research, analysis and training purposes and iii) long-term senior expert advisors (one technical and one financial/economic) • Training and training materials 3. Consultancy services: This component covers: 6.244 5.052 a) Preliminary and detailed engineering design of the four priority roads b) Feasibility study of 280km Lowyaddo-Farddaha-Borama road c) Supervision of Civil Works (Component 1); d) Technical and financial audits, road safety audit and sensitization: community awareness-raising on HIV/AIDS; human trafficking sensitization and ESMP implementation 4. Project Management: This includes consultancy project management, communication 3.699 2.993 and visibility, baseline data collection and periodic monitoring of socio-economic development impact, monitoring and evaluation and operations costs. 5. Compensation and Resettlement: This includes compensation and resettlement of 3.500 2.832 Project Affected Persons and provision of social infrastructure. Base Costs 55.503 44.905 Physical contingencies (7%) 3.251 2.632 Price contingencies (3%) 1.186 0.958 Total 59.940 48.495
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2.3 Technical Solution Retained and Other Alternatives Explored
Alignment design considered two Options. Option 1 was to follow the existing alignment, minimizing land and property acquisition while Option 2 aimed at minimizing horizontal and vertical curvature in line with design requirements. Option 2 was achieved with minimum land and property take. Furthermore, three alternatives were considered for pavement design, namely (i) Triple Surface Treatment (TST); (ii) Asphalt Concrete (AC); and (iii) engineered gravel upgrade. The retained option comprises a TST over a existing carriageway width of 7.3m and on the shoulders (1.5–2.0 m on either side). The retained solutions took cognisance of the in-situ subgrade strengths and the current traffic loading.
Table 2.2: Project alternatives considered and reasons for rejection
Alternative Description Reasons for rejection Asphaltic concrete and surface This option aimed at following the ▪ Expensive and lower economic rate of dressing/treatment for upgrading existing alignment, minimizing returns due to less traffic as compared existing earth roads land and property take to compacted engineered gravel road. Asphalt concrete for rehabilitation 50 mm asphalt concrete surfacing ▪ Less economically viable when of existing paved roads on 150mm GCS base layer on 125- compared with TST, giving lower 150mm modified/ stabilized economic rate of return at higher cost. natural gravel sub-base
2.4 Project Type 2.4.1. The project is a stand-alone operation in support of the priorities identified by the Government. The modality of operation suits the type of works typical of civil works contracts for road projects. The project approach would guarantee that the funds are targeted to the areas identified by the Government. The AfDB financing via grant will cater for some design, rehabilitation and construction of the proposed intervention. The project will benefit from additional fund (UA1,010, 623) from approved Pillar III Strengthening Institutions for Economic Policy Management and Infrastructure Development Project (SIEPMID) to finance feasibility study of 280km Lowyaddo-Farddaha-Borama road.
2.5 Project Cost and Financing Arrangements 2.5.1. Project Cost. The overall estimated project cost (net of taxes) is UA 48.495 million (EUR59.940 million) which is made up of UA 38.796 million (80%) in foreign cost and UA9.699million (20%) in local cost. The project cost includes the base cost, physical contingencies of 7% and price escalation of 3% for the foreign exchange (FE) and 7% for local currency (LC). The project costs estimated by components and by category of expenditures are set out in the Tables below.
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Table 2.3 : Project Cost Estimates by Component (Net of Taxes)
No. Component EUR (million) UA (million) % Foreign Local Total Foreign Local Total Foreign Cost Cost Cost Cost 1 Civil works 30.952 7.738 38.690 25.042 6.261 31.303 80 2 Capacity Building and Technical 0.337 3.033 3.370 0.273 2.454 2.727 10 Assistance 3 Consultancy Services 4.995 1.249 6.244 4.042 1.010 5.052 80 4 Project Management 2.959 0.740 3.699 2.394 0.599 2.993 80 5 Compensation/Resettlement 0.000 3.500 3.500 0.000 2.832 2.832 0 Base Cost 39.243 16.260 55.503 31.751 13.155 44.906 70.71 Physical contingencies 2.601 0.650 3.251 2.105 0.526 2.631 80 Price contingencies[(3%FC,7%LC] 0.949 0.237 1.186 0.766 0.192 0.958 80 TOTAL 42.793 17.147 59.940 34.622 13.873 48.495 71.39
Table 2.4 : Project Cost by Category of Expenditures (EUR and UA million)
No Category EUR (million) UA (million) Foreign Local Total Foreign Local Total % of Cost Cost Cost Cost Foreign A Works 30.952 7.738 38.690 25.042 6.261 31.303 80 B Services 3.844 2.400 6.244 3.111 1.942 5.052 62 C Project Management & Operating Cost 4.241 2.828 7.069 3.432 2.288 5.719 60 D Compensation and Resettlement 0.000 3.500 3.500 - 2.832 2.832 0 Base Cost 39.038 16.465 55.503 31.584 13.322 44.906 70.33 Contingencies 3.550 0.887 4.437 2.871 0.718 3.589 80 TOTAL 42.587 17.353 59.940 34.456 14.040 48.495 71.05
2.5.2. Financing Plan. The project will be jointly financed by the Bank, the European Commission, and the Government of Somalia as follows: TSF Pillar 1 UA4.630million (this includes EUR3.255million contribution by the Government of Italy), ADF 14 PBA (50%) UA7.500million (EUR9.268million), European Commission EUR41.450million (UA33.535million) and the Federal Government of Somalia EUR3.500million (UA2.830million). The financing plan is presented below.
Table 2.5 : Sources of Financing (EUR and UA million net of taxes)
Source of Financing EUR (million) UA (million) % of Foreign Local Total Foreign Local Total Total Cost Cost Cost Cost TSF Pillar I 4.578 1.144 5.722 3.704 0.926 4.630 9.55 ADF 14 PBA (50%) 7.414 1.854 9.268 6.000 1.500 7.500 15.46 European Commission Contribution (11th EDF) 33.160 8.290 41.450 26.828 6.707 33.535 69.15 Federal Government of Somalia 0.000 3.500 3.500 0.000 2.831 2.831 5.84 Total Project Cost 45.152 14.788 59.940 36.532 11.964 48.495 100.00
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Table 2.6a : Expenditure Schedule by Component (UA million)
No. Component 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Total 1 Civil Works 0.000 6.440 20.930 3.220 1.288 0.322 32.200 2 Capacity Building and Technical 0.544 1.631 1.268 0.181 0.000 0.000 3.624 Assistance 3 Consultancy Services 0.773 1.190 3.570 0.297 0.089 0.030 5.949 4 Project Management 0.389 0.973 1.751 0.584 0.156 0.039 3.890 5 Compensation/Resettlement 0.991 1.841 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2.832 TOTAL 2.697 12.074 27.518 4.282 1.533 0.391 48.495
Table 2.6b : Expenditure Schedule by Component (EUR million)
No. Component 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Total 1 Civil Works 0.000 7.960 25.870 3.980 1.592 0.398 39.799 2 Capacity Building and Technical 0.672 2.016 1.568 0.224 0.000 0.000 4.479 Assistance 3 Consultancy Services 0.956 1.471 4.412 0.368 0.110 0.037 7.353 4 Project Management 0.481 1.202 2.164 0.721 0.192 0.048 4.808 5 Compensation/Resettlement 1.225 2.275 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 3.500 TOTAL 3.334 14.923 34.013 5.293 1.895 0.483 59.940
Detailed sources of financing by financing instruments are tabled in appendix IV.
2.6 Project’s Target Area and Beneficiaries 2.6.1 The proposed road project traverses the regions of Jubaland, Hirshabelle, Puntland and Galmudug. BeledWeyne-Galkayo road which is part of the North-South Corridor passes through Hiran-Middle Shabelle and Galmugud regions. BeledWeyne connects Ethiopia via BeledWeyne-Feer feer. BeledWeyne Galkayo together with the Mogadishu link serves an estimated population of 2,167,700 persons. Galkayo- Hobyo road is a feeder road passing through the Galmudug region and serves an estimated population of 66,300 persons. Hobyo is a future sea port. Luuq-Dolow road traverses Jubaland region and links Dolow town which is in Ethiopia.
2.6.2 Direct beneficiaries of the project include communities, road users, businesses, exporter, importers, traders, farmers, transporters and regional governments in the target areas . The communities and the country as a whole will benefit from connectivity, reduced travel time and transport costs and better quality of life. The project will provide employment opportunities for women and youth and the project communities will benefit indirectly from improved environment and economic activities. Capacity building and strengthening of the FGS MPWR&H and the infrastructure Ministries in the five FMSs (Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Jubaland, Puntland and South West) will lead to skills acquisition and enhanced performance. Finally, the technical assistance for Somaliland through preparation of Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA), Resettlement Action Plan (RAP), and feasibility study, preliminary and detailed engineering designs for the Lowyaddo – Farddaha- Borama road will contribute to readiness and easy implementation of the project when funds become available.
2.7 Participatory Process for Project Identification, Design and Implementation 2.7.1 Project preparation, appraisal and environmental and social impact assessments all followed a participatory approach. The Bank undertook consultations with government departments, agencies and other stakeholders including Development Partners. Project Affected Persons (PAPs) were identified and relevant consultations made by the MPWR&H. The FGS and all FMS were involved in the process along
7 with public consultations carried out at local communities including women and youth, from project identification to appraisal. Consultations were also made in the infrastructure PWG and SDRF. Stakeholders involvement will continue throughout the implementation of the project.
2.7.2 The programme draws heavily on three key documents that were informed by an extensive consultation process with local and regional partners and other stakeholders: theTSNAIP for Somalia, the SIF – Pipeline of Projects, and the AfDB’s Somalia’s 2017-2020 Country Brief (CB). The pipeline of projects proposed for multi-partner financing through the SIF, underwent broad based consultations that culminated in their approval by the SDRF Steering Committee in November 2016.
2.8 Bank Group Experiences and Lessons Reflected in Project Design 2.8.1 The Bank has 12 ongoing portfolio of projects in Somalia with a total commitment of UA81.06million. The sectors include agriculture, water and sanitation, multi-sector and social sector. These projects financed by the Bank Group have made significant positive impacts in the country. Generally, the performance of the Bank financed portfolio in Somalia is rated as satisfactory.
2.8.2 Lessons learnt from implementation of previous and ongoing roads sub-sector interventions have been taken into account in the preparation and design of the project. These include: i) the country context and fragility which requires relatively higher resources for project management and oversights, ii) weak capacity of institutions resulting in delays in project start-up and implementation, iii) the need to explore approaches such as phased implementation of project and packaging consultancy services and civil works in lots, iv) adapting procurement plans and procedures to simplified models that support the fragile situation of the country and its systems; v) procurement of services via advance contracting so as to fast- track procurement and implementation; and procurement of civil works via open competitive bidding, vi) poor performance of some contractors that needs intensive and appropriate supervision; vii) inadequate designs and price escalations mitigated through improved and quality designs; viii) inadequate resources hence leveraging resources from other donors; ix) early compensation and resettlement of project affected persons to mitigate disruption to project implementation; x) setting up steering committees and project management committees; and xi) capacity building for government staff to ensure better monitoring of works and effective maintenance of roads after project completion and handing over.
2.9 Key Performance Indicators 2.9.1 The key performance indicators that will be used to measure the outputs and outcomes are set out in the result-based logical framework. These include, reduced travel time and vehicle operating cost, increased mobility, and increase in the number of jobs created. The outputs of the project will be, rehabilitation of 175 existing paved roads and upgrading 180 km of earth roads to engineered gravel roads standard; implementation of cross-cutting issues comprising sensitization on HIV/AIDS, STI (Sexually Transmitted Infection), road safety, gender and ESMP; PAP compensation /resettlement; and road sector support staff trained. While some baseline data for these indicators are indicated in the results based logical framework, additional data will be collected early in the project and later. The project budget provides for collection and analysis of survey data to monitor the various project indicators and also for monitoring and evaluation of consultancy services.
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3. PROJECT FEASIBILITY
3.1 Economic and Financial Performance The methodology for the economic analysis is based on cost benefit analysis (CBA) comparing the “with” and “without” project scenarios over a period of 20 years, using the Road Economic Decision (RED) model. A discount rate of 12%, and upgrading period of 3.5 years (42 months) starting January 2020 are adopted. The economic costs consist of (i) the capital investment costs and (ii) the routine and periodic maintenance expenses. The benefits consist of savings in (i) vehicle operating costs; (ii) motorized traffic travel time for passengers and cargo; and (iii) non-motorized transport traffic travel and operation. The current (2019) Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) on the different Project road sections range from 181 to789 and 19 to 28 vehicles per day for the paved sections and gravel sections respectively. It is noted that traffic on all project road sections is suppressed, implying that traffic volumes will increase significantly once the roads are upgraded. It is noted that the design consultant will update economic analysis results at the beginning of project implementation. The measures used for assessing project viability are the Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) and Net Present Value (NPV). The traffic and economic analysis results are presented in Annex B7. The summary of the economic analysis is presented in Table 3.1.
Table 3.1: Summary of the Economic Analysis
Road Name Length Base Results Sensitivity Results (Km) (+20 Costs & -20 Benefits) NPV EIRR NPV EIRR (US $ (%) (US $ (%) Million) Million Beledweyne - Galkayo Road 90 75.99 23 65.38 22 Galkayo - Garowe Road 85 6.04 14 2.42 13 Galkayo – Hobyo Road 100 0.79 13 0.08 12.3 Luuq – Dolow Road 80 3.16 18 2.72 17.2
3.2 Environmental and Social Impacts
3.2.1 Environment Key Impacts: The positive impacts of the project will include access to improved road infrastructure that will facilitate trade; improved access to community services like hospitals, schools and markets; increased income and employment to workers and input suppliers; reduction in vehicle repair costs; and improved revenue collection to the government from taxes. The expected negative impacts will include impacts on water resources, dust and noise during construction, also, impacts on vegetation, disruption on grazing activities, community health and safety.
Categorization: In line with the Bank’s environmental and social assessment procedures, the project is classified category 1. The justification of the category is based on the scope of the planned interventions that includes construction of over 100km of road spread over four locations in Somalia. An ESIA study was undertaken by the borrower and a RAP developed to outline mitigation to counter any negative
9 impacts identified during the project preparation. The summaries were disclosed on the 15th March 2019. Also, the full ESIA and RAP documents were disclosed on the 27th June 20193.
Capacity to Implement Environmental and Social Mitigation Measures: The implementing agency is the Ministry of Public Works, Reconstruction and Housing, which will primarily take the lead in ensuring that the project implementation phase complies with all relevant national environmental laws and policies as well as the safeguard policies of the African Development Bank. The project intends to recruit a safeguards specialist to ensure effective management of environmental and social concerns throughout the project cycle from the planning, detailed design, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation. Further, until the establishment of the Ministry of Environment and Disaster Management in 2005, Somalia lacked any central body responsible for these matters. Instead, a National Environmental Committee, with representatives from 13 Ministries/Agencies, served as the co-ordination body for environmental governance. At the time, most environmental issues were referred to two organizations within the Ministry of Livestock, Forestry and Range, these being the National Range Agency and the Central Rangelands Development Project. However, these structures are not functional due to low capacity. The project therefore will support the Project Implementation Unit (PIU) in developing guidelines for mainstreaming environmental and social risk management with the aim of capacity building and strengthening of relevant competencies on environmental and social management at both federal and regional states levels.
As part of contractual requirements, the Works contractor will be required to develop site-specific ESMPs detailing how the management actions contained in this ESMP will be implemented. The contractors will also be required to develop environmental and social management programs as it relate to their construction and operational activities. Such management programs shall include plan for waste management, spill prevention and emergency response, traffic management, erosion control, integrated vegetation management, occupational health and safety, security, and labour and employment.
3.2.2 Social Aspects
The World Bank and the UN estimate Somalia’s total population at 14.7 million4 for 2017. At least 70 per cent of Somalia’s population is under the age of 305. Poverty levels in the country is very alarming. UNDP, in its 2014 report, mentioned that the country has a poverty rate of 73%, a life expectancy of 55 years, adult literacy of 31.8%, about 70% of the population is below the age of 30, and a youth unemployment rate of 67%. In its 2012 report, UNDP Somalia mentioned that the country had one of the lowest human development index in the world with a value of 0.285. Inequality is high driven by the difference in poverty incidence in urban settings (close to 60% in Mogadishu) and rural settings (52.3%) with Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) settlements (71.0%).
Somalia at large frequently experiences many shocks and its economic stability is constantly at risk. Poorer groups /vulnerable people find themselves most threatened by disruptions to their economy, as they barely meet minimum food requirements during a normal year and have fewer options for coping with shocks thus leading to unsustainable utilization of natural resources. The food security situation has been worsened by the impact of past civil war and statelessness, and the recurrent droughts, as farmers have lost access to agricultural inputs and services formerly provided by the state. The private sector
3 https://esa.afdb.org/document/environmental-and-social-impact-assessment-32
4 https://data.worldbank.org/country/somalia; https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/ 5 https://www.unicef.org/somalia/education.html
10 has responded to a degree, but the lack of regulation might have led to misuse, and poor quality control. While industry can provide an increasingly important contribution to economic growth, it will be, for the foreseeable future, second to pastoralism and agriculture.
Prior to the civil war Somalis enjoyed free public education. However, since the collapse of the state only 30% of the children are in school and fewer than 50 % of girls attend primary school6. Madrasas play a key role in providing education for young children. These Islamic schools which are abundant and easily accessible in nearly all parts of the country offer young children the opportunity to be literate. Somalia’s healthcare provision is dominated by the private sector save for mother and child health centres funded by donors. Along the corridors nearly all the small settlements lack health care facilities and people are forced to travel to nearby urban areas to seek medical treatment. Given the social context of the communities in the project area, a number of complimentary interventions are proposed in addition to the mitigation and enhancement measures to ensure the intended goals of this programme are achieved. General complimentary activities to be considered of high value include building health clinics and primary schools along parts of the corridors. According to the ESIA, on the Galkayo-Hobyo section severe water scarcity continues to harshly affect the local communities. Families have resorted to harvesting water from the road runoff. Providing boreholes for these communities will alleviate the suffering caused by water scarcity especially in the parts where herdsmen travel 100 km to get water. Particular areas where boreholes will be placed are between the villages of Ceelguula and Afgaduud. The justification is based on the current socio-economic situation of the communities of whom at least 70 per cent are under the age of 30 in the project area, whose priority need is the access to water for domestic and livelihood use. Currently, livestock husbandry and farming are adapted to this climatic regime, with herds being concentrated around water sources. The total budget included for sustainable livelihoods restoration and construction of solar powered water systems for pastrolists and communities is USD 680,000.
3.2.3 Involuntary Resettlement
According to the RAP, the reconstruction and proposed projects are likely to affect about 102 households especially in Luuq-Dolow and also involuntary separation for some along Galkayo-Garowe. Consultations conducted with households during the resettlement process included the participation of women to ensure their voices were heard and gender issues are adequately addressed in the RAP. Compensation is estimated at USD 1,344,560 (USD 544,560 for 102 affected households, USD 350,000 for procurement of land for construction of gender-sensitive community markets and USD 450,000 as material/ input costs for constructing the markets that will be decided upon by local communities themselves. As part of this project, EUR 1 million of the EU grant is allocated to these tasks but any contingencies arising, will be paid by the FGS. Emphasis will be made on the timely settlement of compensation payments.
3.2.4 Climate Change With respect to the vulnerability of the long term integrity of the road project to climate change impacts, the final technical design of the road will ensure specific consideration of particular areas along the road alignment that may be prone to problems of soil erosion and flooding which may be exacerbated due to changes in climate in the near and long term.
6 https://www.unicef.org/somalia/education.html
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The programme will support Somalia’s actions in this area to ensure that practical risk management and climate change adaptation measures are integrated into the programme activities and implementation plans, including improving the drainage systems along the highways to check soil erosion and environmental degradation.
3.2.5 Gender
The 2012 human development report for Somalia indicated that the country’s gender inequality index was the fourth highest globally at 0.776, with high maternal mortality, child marriage and violence against women and girls (UNDP 2014). Current national estimates of maternal mortality indicate that there are an estimated 732 deaths per 100,000 live births and women’s literacy remains extremely low at 26 percent compared to 36 percent for men (UNDP 2012). Early marriage is the norm with an estimated 45 percent of young women marrying by 18 years leading to high rates of school dropout among girls. Female genital mutilation is nearly universal at 98 percent. All these factors pose significant barriers to women’s emancipation leading to high rates of poverty. The continued insecurity and internal displacement has exacerbated incidence of violence against women. Lack of access to formal justice provides little recourse to survivors of gender-based violence (GBV). With continued instability and volatility, IDP settlements in Mogadishu have been described by UNDP (2014) as ‘dire’ with GBV reported to be ‘endemic’. Women have poor access to basic services and limited participation in the formal economy. Women are mostly involved in the informal economy, and in rural areas they typically manage the sale of livestock products. Over a third of women are also involved in wage labour in the non-farm sector (UNDP 2014). Unemployment is higher among women, at 74 percent compared to 61 percent for men (UNDP 2012).
The project is expected to impact positively on gender equality in the targeted areas by improving women’s access to basic social services such as health and education. Geographical access to health facilities is a major challenge for women seeking health services during pregnancy and childbirth, especially during obstetric emergencies, as women have to travel long distances over poor roads to seek care. Construction of road networks will improve women’s access to health care and reduce travel time to health facilities. Uptake of routine health care such as immunization is also expected to improve as health workers will have better access to deliver services to rural communities. Girls face barriers in accessing schools due to poor road connectivity. Improved road infrastructure will encourage higher rates of enrolment and retention of girls in schools thus having a transformative impact on their lives. Better access to education among girls is known to delay marriage and childbearing. Furthermore, investments in road infrastructure will improve interconnectivity between markets and feeder roads, better security, access to goods and services and will thereby improve economic opportunities for women working in agriculture and the informal sector.
4. IMPLEMENTATION
4.1 Implementation Arrangements 4.1.1 Executing Agency: The Executing Agency (EA) of the programme will be the FGS MPWR&H which has benefited from the Bank’s funded Somalia Strengthening Institutions for Public Works Projects.
4.1.2 The Executing Agency will appoint a Programme Management Team (PMT) to undertake and implement the technical and procurement functions. The PMT will be supported by technical teams drawn
12 from the Ministries in-charge of public works in the FMS . The FGS will also designate the Project Implementation Unit (PIU) in the Ministry of Finance to carry out the financial management and disbursement functions and controls under the Programme including preparation and submission of interim quarterly financial reports, and annual audit reports of the Programme t to the Fund. The PIU will (i) establish and manage sound budgeting, accounting and internal control and financial reporting systems for the Programme and ensure that all expenditures and related supporting documents are properly and physically archived for review and auditing purposes by independent auditors; (ii) ensure the efficient and effective management of the Programme resources including opening a dedicated Programme Special Account;(iii) produce Interim quarterly Financial Reports (IFR) to monitor and manage spending against budget, for submission to the Recipient and the Fund; and (iv) submit annual audit reports of the Programme to the Fund.
4.1.3 The AfDB will intensely monitor activities and evaluate outcomes in line with the results-based framework that will be developed as part of the appraisal process of this operation, to ensure that the programme delivers on its objectives.
4.1.4 A Steering Committee headed by MPWR&H and composed of stakeholders from the FGS Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development, Ministry of Women’s Rights, Chamber of commerce, Ministries’ in charge of public works at the FMS level, and representatives of the Civil Society. The AfDB, European Union and Italy will be observer members of the Steering Committee of the SC.
4.2 Procurement
Procurement of goods (including non-consultancy services), works and the acquisition of consulting services, financed by the Bank for the project, will be carried out in accordance with the Procurement Policy for Bank Group Funded Operations, dated October 2015 and following the provisions stated in the Financing Agreement. Specifically, procurement will be carried out following Bank procurement methods and procedures, using the relevant Bank standard or model solicitation documents.
Procurement Risks and Capacity Development: the assessment of procurement risks at the country, sector, and project levels and procurement capacity at the EA were undertaken for the project and the output have informed the decisions on the procurement regimes (Bank or third party) being used for specific transactions or groups of similar transactions under the project. The appropriate mitigation measures and costs have been included in the procurement capacity development action plan under the project.
4.3 Financial Management and Disbursement Arrangements
4.3.1 The Project will make partial use of the Country Systems, as the Country’s Public Financial Management (PFM) system continues to experience significant weaknesses in the areas of staffing, treasury management and external audit. The provisions in the PFM Act 2015 shall apply to the Project and shall be augmented by the Bank’s policies and procedures.
4.3.2 The fiduciary responsibility will rest with the Director General of the MPWR&H. The Director General of the MPWR&H will be responsible for arranging SC meetings and will carry out other tasks as required by the SC. Such tasks will be clearly stated in the terms of reference of the SC. The Project SC will provide strategic, policy and implementation oversight including the review and approval of the project annual work plans and budgets (AWP&Bs) prior to submission to the Bank for final clearance. The PMT will be responsible for the preparation of the AWP&Bs, ensuring that the FGS’s planning cycle is followed and also carried out through a consultative process involving the five FMS.
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4.3.3 The project will benefit from the FM capacity existing within the PIU in the FGS MoF to execute the FM functions, namely funds flow, banking arrangements, accounting, financial reporting, and coordination of the external audits. The PIU has proven experience in Bank’s FM policies and procedures gained from the management of other Bank-funded operations including the EFGISP (I&II). The accountant in the PIU will work closely with the Director of finance in the PMT of the MPWR&H to discharge the day-to-day financial management operations of the project under the overall oversight of the Accountant General.
4.3.4 The External Assistance Fiduciary Procedures Manual will apply to the Project. The payment system for the project will be centralised at the PIU. Duly approved documentation for the activities to be executed at the MPWR&H and the five FMS shall be submitted to the PIU through the PMT for quality assurance and completion of the payment process as provided for in FGS system for release of funds. The PIU will ensure that separate records and ledger accounts by components, financing sources and disbursement categories in respect of the project transactions are maintained on the Somalia financial management and information system platform. All payments and approval of payments should be timely so as to ensure smooth running of the project.
4.3.5 The PIU will prepare the project’s quarterly interim financial reports. In addition, the PIU will prepare annual project financial statements in accordance with International Public Sector Accounting Standards. The Project will be subject to independent audits, on an annual basis, using competitively recruited private auditors.
4.3.6 The project will utilize the Bank’s special account (SA) and the direct payment (DP) methods as provided for in the Bank’s Disbursement Handbook. The FGS will open for each financing instrument, a project special account at the Central Bank of Somalia denominated in foreign currency to facilitate the drawdown of resources using the SA method. The funds on the SAs will mainly be used to pay for capacity building expenses including workshops and training while the DP method will used to effect payments to contractors and consultants. The opening of the project special accounts will be one of the other conditions for the financing. The Project funds will be tax exempt and the EA will secure the necessary tax exemptions or use Government counterpart funding when making tax payments. The Bank will issue a disbursement letter, which will provide specific guidelines on key disbursement procedures and practices that will apply to the project.
4.4 Monitoring 4.4.1 The various components of the project are detailed in Section 2.2 above. The day-to-day monitoring and supervision of the civil works will be carried out by the Supervision Consultants. The MPWR&H and concerned FMSs will also carry out monitoring of the project.
4.4.2 The Bank will field supervision missions and conduct mid-term reviews to assess performance of the project. The Bank will also report project progress to the infrastructure PWG. The project will be implemented over a 55-month period including the defects liability period of 12 months. The implementation monitoring timeframe is presented in Table 4.1 below.
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Table 4.1 : Implementation Monitoring Timeframe
Monitoring process / Timeframe Milestone feedback loop Q3 – 2019 Project Launching Supervision and Progress Report Q4 – 2019 Procurement of Design Consultants Completed Procurement Plan/Progress Report Q2 – 2020 Engineering designs of the 4 roads completed Validation Workshops & Progress Report Q2 – 2020 Procurement of Supervision Consultants completed Procurement Plan/Progress Report Q4 – 2020 Procurement of Civil Works Contractors completed Procurement Plan/Progress Report Q4 – 2020 Contractors mobilization and start of works Supervision and Progress Report Q3 – 2021 About 40% of Civil Works completed. Mid-term Review Mid-term Review and Progress Report Q2 – 2022 Substantial completion of civil works Supervision and Progress Report Q2 – 2023 End of Defects Liability period Supervision and Progress Report Q3 – 2023 Project Completion Project Completion Report
4.5 Governance
4.5.1 Somalia has achieved mixed governance results, attaining a score of 7 on a scale of 0 - 100 ( 100 being the best score) and is ranked lowest on the Africa Property Rights index. It also ranks last (54) in Africa on the 2017 overall Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance rankings and Property Rights. Similarly, Somalia’s ranking in the Bank Group‘s overall Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) has remained at 37 out of 37 countries for the past five years. Somalia’s ranking in governance and the CPIA masks significant improvements that the country has made. Its CPIA score in 2018 rose by 0.43 points, the highest increase for all ADF countries, resulting in an overall score of 1.6 out of a possible maximum of 6 in 2018 compared to 1.16 in 2016.
4.5.2 Under the governance arrangements, the MPWR&H is led by the Honourable Minister who is supported by State Minister, Deputy Minister, Director General and other officials of the various departments (e.g., Infrastructure, Finance & Administration, Housing, Urban Development and Land Use, etc.). The Ministers and other government officials have defined role and responsibilities. There is delegation of power and authority.
4.5.3 There are weaknesses in the government ability to undertake research and manage the transport sectors more effectively due to lack of adequate policies, legislation and regulations and data collection and policy design. There are acute shortages of capable technical expertise. The capacity building component also includes appropriate sensitization on routine and annual road maintenance works and enactment of harmonized axle load legislation and enforcement actions. The project through the capacity building component will help in strengthening the institutional framework in the transport sector and address sector governance issues.
4.5.4 At project level, this project will be implemented by MPWR&H partially using the Country’s PFM systems along with stipulated Bank’s system. Hence it will adopt all the governance and anti- corruption policies and guidelines of the Country. The Bank will provide some oversight especially during supervision missions and follow up meetings. All the anti-corruption measures that pertain to the Government will apply to this project.
4.5.5 In the procurement process for international competitive bidding, governance risk will be mitigated through strict application of the Bank’s standard rules and procedures. The Bank’s supervision missions
15 and financial audits will ensure conformity between the terms of reference, services provided, works done, disbursements made and loan agreement
4.5.6 The specific governance risk mitigation measures of the project include: (i) the appointment of an independent auditor to ensure that funds are used efficiently and for the intended purposes; and (ii) Bank prior review and approval of all project procurement activities.
4.6 Sustainability
4.6.1 FGS has identified transport infrastructure development as one of the priority focus areas to attain the objectives of the NDP. To that effect the road sub-sector is undergoing reforms that include the establishment of Roads Authority as well as strengthening institutional capacity of the MPWR&H which is mandated with the management of the national road network, with financing for maintenance from the FGS budget. As stated under the need assessment section of the Project Summary page, the total length of the primary/main roads is 4,124 km, of which 2,860 km are paved and 1,264 km are unpaved or of gravel surface. The condition of the paved roads can be classified as poor since more than 90% of the roads that have deteriorated are beyond their design life. The total length of secondary, feeder and coastal roads is about 7,310 km.
4.6.2 MPWR&H will be responsible for putting in place a framework to ensure appropriate periodic and routine maintenance of the roads. In the medium term (3 years), the routine maintenance will be increased to 90% and the role of force account units of MPWR&H will be limited to emergency response only. MPWR&H will be enforcing axle load control to protect the investment.
4.6.3 With respect to the project roads, maintenance of the completed sections of the roads will be the responsibility of the contractor during the construction phase. After completion, MPWR&H will be responsible for maintenance of the roads through financing from FGS Budget. The impact of the project maintenance costs on FGS recurrent costs will not be significant in the immediate. The FGS is committed to ensuring budget availability for both periodic and routine maintenance. They will consider additional sources of revenues, in order to mobilize sufficient funds and close the general road maintenance funding when needed. The sustainability of the project will depend largely on the ability of FGS to provide financing and MPWR&H to implement timely maintenance and exercise effective axle-load-control on the project roads. From the foregoing, it is evident that implementation of the measures above will ensure sustainability of the road-sub-sector.
4.7 Risk Management The Table below summarises potential risks and mitigation measure based on lessons learnt in implementation of projects.
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Risks Risk Mitigation Measures Rating Sustainability: Risk of insufficient financing to M Setting up road maintenance fund by the FGS, ensuring cover routine and periodic maintenance of roads. budgetary allocation in the annual appropriation and future provisions and projections. Structured training under capacity building. Political risks and insecurity (including charging H (i) Build local ownership through community participation of passage fees from proliferation of check points) and visible improvements on the ground; (ii) continuous could undermine implementation. assurances that FGS will provide necessary security for construction workers and road users along the road corridors targeted for civil works both during and after implementation. Financial risks due to weak public financial H Putting in place adequate systems. AfDB will review all management and public procurement systems. procurement processes and issue “no objection” to ensure compliance with the Bank’s procurement rules and policies. PIU already set up in the MoF will also be used. Encroachment of communities on the existing M Defining in ESIA/RAP actions required (and following up road reserves and other negative social impacts actions) to mitigate the projects’ negative social and (e.g. influx of workers, potential increase of environmental impacts. FGS will address encroachment insecurity and spread of HIV/AIDS and STI at the risks after ESIA/RAP study project corridor and in campsites). Institutional and human capacity constraints and H Provision of technical assistance and low quality or insufficient technical designs for building/strengthening the capacity of federal and regional civil works, could delay activity implementation. ministries to manage infrastructure projects. Risk of Child labour. L National and international labour standards will be respected and no child labour will be contracted. Increased risk of human trafficking due to M Sensitisation and awareness campaign on trafficking risks improved road corridors. through print and electronic media, billboards, etc. Demand/supply factors (scarcity of local H MPWR&H will closely monitor developments in the road contractors and limited supply of foreign ones) sector to ensure cost effectiveness and effective contract could cause sharp price rises for civil works when management that guarantee best and competitive pricing. bids are launched. Lack of awareness of the importance of routine H Appropriate sensitization and capacity building regarding road maintenance and lack of axle load control routine and annual road maintenance works by FGS, FMS could curtail the sustainability and the expected and the enactment of harmonized axle load legislation and socio-economic results. enforcement actions (e.g., weigh bridges). Project cost: possible cost overrun. M Firming up cost estimates during design based on prevailing rates for labour, plant/equipment, materials; allowing reasonable contingencies in the cost estimates. Risk of project delays due to poor performance of M Only Contractors and Consultants with proven record of Contractors and Consultants. Also start-up delays working in Somalia and have the required resources in arising from lack of detailed designs. plant/equipment, facilities, etc., will be considered. Advance contracting will fast-track procurement of design consultants Difficulty in supervising and monitoring project H Independent local consultants will be recruited to provide activities in some areas due to insecurity supervision support as the case may be.
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Risks Risk Mitigation Measures Rating Risk of climate proofing and adaptation M Provision of adequate drainage structures and raising the levels of the road in low lying or flat terrains; erosion control measures and tree planting Government not paying its own share of the M Government will be required to confirm fund availability amount pledged Delayed implementation of the project due to M Project Steering Committee and Project Management disagreements on some project sites Committees with high-level representation from stakeholders will be set up to support implementation of the project. H = High, M = Medium, L = Low
4.8 Knowledge Building 4.8.1 The proposed project is aligned with needs of the FGS and the recommendations in the TSNAIP study that identified the need to invest in transport infrastructure and strengthen the capacity of Ministries at federal and regional levels.
Knowledge will be built in MPWR&H both at FGS and FMS levels through the implementation of the capacity building component of the project and counterpart training offered by the supervision and technical assistance consultants for the project. The effectiveness in knowledge building will be captured through quarterly reports, supervision missions and project completion report which will be shared with MPWR&H and other DPs.
4.8.2 Implementation of the various components of the project will provide further knowledge, experience and lessons regarding the transport sector and this will in turn help to guide and shape the design and implementation of other transport sector projects in the future.
5 LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY
5.1 Legal Instruments
5.1.1 The instruments governing the financing will be an ADF and TSF (Pillar 1) Protocols of Agreements.
5.2 Conditions Associated with Bank’s Intervention
5.2.1 The Grant shall be subject to the following conditions:
A. Conditions Precedent to Entry into Force: The Agreements shall enter into force upon signature by the Fund and the Federal Republic of Somalia (the “Recipient”).
B. Conditions Precedent to First Disbursement: The obligation of the Fund to make the first disbursement of the Grants shall be conditional upon the entry into force of the respective Agreements.
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C. Condition Precedent to Disbursements for Works Involving Resettlement Subject to the fulfilment of the Entry into Force and Conditions Precedent to First Disbursement, the obligation of the Fund to disburse the Grant for works that involve resettlement shall be subject to the fulfilment by the Recipient of the following additional conditions:
(a) Submission of a works and compensation schedule prepared in accordance with the Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) and the Fund’s Safeguards Policies in form and substance satisfactory to the Fund detailing: (i) each lot of civil works under the Project, and (ii) the time frame for compensation and/or resettlement of all Project affected persons (“PAPs”) in respect of each lot; and
(b) Submission of satisfactory evidence that all Project affected persons (“PAPs”) in respect of civil works in a given lot have been compensated and/or resettled in accordance with the Environmental and Social Management Plan (“ESMP”), the Resettlement Action Plan (“RAP”) and/ or the agreed works and compensation schedule and the Fund’s Safeguards Policies, prior to the commencement of civil works in such lot and in any case before the PAPs’ actual move and/or taking of land and related assets; or
(c) In lieu of paragraphs (a) and(b) above, submission of satisfactory evidence indicating that the resources allocated for the compensation and/or resettlement of PAPs have been deposited in a dedicated account in a bank acceptable to the Fund or remitted to a trusted third party acceptable to the Fund, where the Recipient can prove, to the satisfaction of the Fund that, compensation and /or resettlement of PAPs in accordance with paragraphs (a) and (b) above could not be undertaken fully or partially, because of the following reasons: (i) the identification of the PAPs by Recipient is not feasible or possible; (ii) ongoing litigation involving the PAPs and / or affecting the compensation and/or resettlement exercise; or (iii) any other reason beyond the control of the Recipient, as discussed and agreed with the Fund.
D. Other Conditions: The Recipient shall:
(i) open a Special Account denominated in foreign currency at the Central Bank of Somalia;
(ii) provide to the Fund, no later than three (3) months after the Entry into Force of this Agreement, evidence of the (a) establishment of a Programme Management Team and recruitment of a Programme Coordinator; a Procurement Specialist; Monitoring and Evaluation Specialist; an Infrastructure Specialist; and a Safeguards Specialist each with terms of reference, skills, qualifications acceptable to the Fund; and (b) designation of the Project Implementation Unit in the Ministry of Finance to carry out the financial management and disbursement functions under the Programme .
5.3 Compliance with Bank Policies
This project complies with all applicable Bank policies.
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6 RECOMMENDATION
Recalling that the Boards of Directors approved in 2017, Somalia’s exceptional eligibility of the TSF Pillar I resources under ADF-14 cycle (UA 15 million), and 50% of the grant component of PBA under ADF-14 (7.5 million), for partial utilization by Somalia in the Multinational Say No to Famine - Short-Term Regional Emergency Response Project in Somalia And South Sudan ( STRERP).
Recalling further that STRERP was financed partly using TSF Pillar 1 unallocated reserves, hence the TSF Pillar 1 resources that had been set aside for the financing of STRERP are available.
Management proposes to submit an Addendum at a later date for the proposed award of a grant of Euro 41.45 million from the European Commission 11th EDF resources for the co-financing of the Programme.
Management recommends that the Boards of Directors:
i. Approve the unutilized TSF Pillar 1 resources, that had been set aside for financing STRERP, to be utilized for the financing of this Programme; and
ii. Award to the Republic of Somalia the proposed ADF grant of an amount not exceeding the equivalent of Seven Million Five Hundred Thousand Units of Account (UA 7,500,000 ) and TSF Pillar 1 grant of an amount not exceeding the equivalent of Four Million Six Hundred Thirty Thousand Units of Account (UA 4,630,000) for the financing of the Road Infrastructure Programme subject to the conditions stipulated in this report.
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Appendix I: Country’s Comparative Socio-Economic Indicators
Somalia COMPARATIVE SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Develo- Develo- Year Somalia Africa ping ped Countries Countries Basic Indicators GNI Per Capita US $ Area ( '000 Km²) 2018 638 30,067 92,017 40,008 Total Population (millions) 2018 15.2 1,286.2 6,432.7 1,197.2 2500 Urban Population (% of Total) 2018 45.0 42.5 50.4 81.5 2000
Population Density (per Km²) 2018 18.7 43.8 71.9 31.6 1500 GNI per Capita (US $) 2017 263 1 767 4 456 40 142 1000 Labor Force Participation *- Total (%) 2018 54.5 65.9 62.1 60.1 Labor Force Participation **- Female (%) 2018 33.6 55.5 47.6 52.2 500 Sex Ratio (per 100 female) 0 2018 99.3 99.8 102.3 99.3 2014 2015 2016 2017 Human Dev elop. Index (Rank among 189 countries) 2017 ...... … … Popul. Liv ing Below $ 1.90 a Day (% of Population) 2007-2017 ...... 11.9 0.7
Somal ia Africa Demographic Indicators Population Grow th Rate - Total (%) 2018 3.0 2.5 1.2 0.5 Population Grow th Rate - Urban (%) 2018 4.3 3.6 2.3 0.7 Population < 15 y ears (%) 2018 46.3 40.6 27.5 16.5 Population Growth Rate (%) Population 15-24 y ears (%) 2018 20.1 19.2 16.3 11.7 4.0 Population >= 65 y ears (%) 2018 2.7 3.5 7.2 18.0 3.5 Dependency Ratio (%) 2018 96.8 79.2 53.2 52.8 3.0 Female Population 15-49 y ears (% of total population) 2018 22.6 24.1 25.4 22.2 2.5 Life Ex pectancy at Birth - Total (y ears) 2018 57.1 63.1 67.1 81.3 2.0 Life Ex pectancy at Birth - Female (y ears) 2018 58.9 64.9 69.2 83.8 1.5 Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 1.0 2018 42.7 33.4 26.4 10.9 0.5 Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) 2018 10.9 8.3 7.7 8.8 0.0 Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000) 2017 79.7 47.7 32.0 4.6 2000 2007 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Child Mortality Rate (per 1,000) 2017 127.2 68.6 42.8 5.4 Total Fertility Rate (per w oman) 2018 6.1 4.4 3.5 1.7 Somali a Africa Maternal Mortality Rate (per 100,000) 2015 732.0 444.1 237.0 10.0 Women Using Contraception (%) 2018 29.4 38.3 61.8 …
Health & Nutrition Indicators Phy sicians (per 100,000 people) 2010-2016 2.9 33.6 117.8 300.8 Life Expectancy at Birth Nurses and midw iv es (per 100,000 people) 2010-2016 7.8 123.3 232.6 868.4 (years) Births attended by Trained Health Personnel (%) 2010-2017 ... 61.7 78.3 99.0 80 Access to Safe Water (% of Population) 2011 31.7 71.6 89.4 99.5 70 60 Access to Sanitation (% of Population) 2011 23.5 39.4 61.5 99.4 50 Percent. of Adults (aged 15-49) Liv ing w ith HIV/AIDS 40 2017 0.1 3.4 1.1 … 30 Incidence of Tuberculosis (per 100,000) 2016 270.0 221.7 163.0 12.0 20 Child Immunization Against Tuberculosis (%) 10 2017 37.0 82.1 84.9 95.8 0 Child Immunization Against Measles (%) 2017 46.0 74.4 84.0 93.7 2000 2007 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Underw eight Children (% of children under 5 y ears) 2010-2016 ... 17.5 15.0 0.9
Prev alence of stunding 2010-2016 ... 34.0 24.6 2.5 Somal ia Africa Prev alence of undernourishment (% of pop.) 2016 ... 18.5 12.4 2.7 Public Ex penditure on Health (as % of GDP) 2010 ... 2.6 3.0 7.7
Education Indicators Gross Enrolment Ratio (%) Primary School - Total 2010-2017 ... 99.5 102.8 102.6 Primary School - Female 2010-2017 ... 97.4 102.0 102.5 Infant Mortality Rate Secondary School - Total 2010-2017 ... 51.9 59.5 108.5 ( Per 1000 ) Secondary School - Female 2010-2017 ... 49.5 57.9 108.3 120 Primary School Female Teaching Staff (% of Total) 2010-2017 ... 48.7 53.0 81.5 100 Adult literacy Rate - Total (%) 2010-2017 ... 65.5 73.1 ... 80 Adult literacy Rate - Male (%) 2010-2017 ... 77.0 79.1 ... 60 Adult literacy Rate - Female (%) 2010-2017 ... 62.6 67.2 ... 40 Percentage of GDP Spent on Education 2010-2015 ... 4.9 4.1 5.2 20 0 Environmental Indicators 2000 2007 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Land Use (Arable Land as % of Total Land Area) 2016 1.8 8.0 11.3 10.4 Agricultural Land (as % of land area) 2016 70.3 38.2 37.8 36.5 Forest (As % of Land Area) 2016 10.0 22.0 32.6 27.6 Somal ia Africa Per Capita CO2 Emissions (metric tons) 2014 0.05 1.1 3.5 11.0
Sources : AfDB Statistics Department Databases; World Bank: World Development Indicators; last update : Febuary 2019 UNAIDS; UNSD; WHO, UNICEF, UNDP; Country Reports. Note : n.a. : Not Applicable ; … : Data Not Available. * Labor force participation rate, total (% of total population ages 15+) ** Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15+)
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Appendix II: Bank’s Ongoing Operations in Somalia
# Project name Funding Fin. App. Date Final Disb. Amt. Amt Disb. Status Inst. Date Approved Disb Ratio (MUA) .(MU A) 1 WATER INFRASTRUCTURE RWSSI Grant 17/06/2016 30/03/2020 2.4 1.6 66.6 % Ongoing DEVELOPMENT FOR RESILIENCE IN SOMALILAN 2 RURAL LIVELIHOODS? GEF Grant 15/12/2017 30/04/2021 7.2 0.4 5.0 % Ongoing ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE HORN 3 IMPROVING ACCESS TO ADF/TSF Grant 16/12/2016 30/06/2020 7.6 6.1 80.3% Ongoing WATER AND SANITATION IN RURAL SOMALIA 4 BUILDING RESILIENCE TO AWF Grant 01/10/2014 31/12/2019 2.4 1.7 72.1 % Ongoing WATER STRESS IN SOMALILAND 5 SOCIO-ECONOMIC RE- TSF Grant 22/01/2016 30/09/2019 3 3 100.0 % Ongoing INTEGRATION OF YOUTH AT RISK 6 STRENGTHENING ADF/TSF Grant 05/12/2016 31/03/2021 5.5 1.9 34.4 % Ongoing INSTITUTIONS FOR PUBLIC WORKS 7 EMERGENCY SFR Loan 11/09/2018 31/07/2019 0.7 0.7 100% Ongoing HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO CYCLONE AND FLOOD VICTI 8 ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL TSF Grant 15/12/2017 30/06/2021 5.5 0.3 6.1 % Ongoing GOVERNANCE INSTITUTION SUPPORT PROJEC 9 SOMALIA NATIONAL TSF Grant 13/10/2016 30/03/2020 1.2 0.9 71.9 % Ongoing STATISTICAL CAPACITY BUILDING PROJECT 10 SAY NO TO FAMINE-SHORT ADF/TSF Grant 21/07/2017 15/09/2020 25 4.6 18% Ongoing TERM REGIONAL EMERGENCY RESPONSE PROJ 11 SOMALIA-DRSLP II ADF/TSF Grant 26/11/2014 31/12/2020 15 1.7 11% Ongoing 12 WATER INFRASTRUCTURE TSF Grant 17/06/2016 30/03/2020 3 1.9 61.9 % Ongoing DEVELOPMENT FOR RESILIENCE IN SOMALILAN 78.5 24.8 32%
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Appendix III: Fragility Context in Somalia
Fragility Context in Somalia
This concise fragility and resilience assessment for the Road Infrastructure Programme builds on the Fragility and Resilience Assessment Report for Somalia. It also draws upon the latest information gathered throughout the Country Resilience and Fragility Assessment (CRFA) exercise, which is complementary to the CPIA. Whilst the CRFA is a continuous process of enhanced data collection and quantification, and hence iterated over time to reflect the latest developments, the initial findings across the 7 dimensions of Pressures and Capacities were valuable for the in-depth assessment of economic, social, political, environmental/climate change and regional drivers of fragility. Somalia has embarked on a path from fragility towards resilience, guided by the New Deal and now the New Partnership for Somalia (NPS) to facilitate implementation of the NDP 2017-19. The NPS commits Somalia to an ambitious set of much-needed reforms on economic recovery, security, governance and public financial management, in return for sustained international support to the NDP. Conflicts and instability are at the very core of state fragility in Somalia and the country has gone through enormous multi-dimensional political, economic, social and cultural changes over the last three decades. The fragility drivers are summarized as follows: • Somalia suffers from a low infrastructure and human capital base. Over the years, the Country’s infrastructure and human capital development has been severely constrained by war, violence, and wide spread poverty levels. The significant differences in the levels of economic development among the regions is partly driven by disparities in their infrastructure and human capital investments coupled with asymmetric distribution of resources, productive assets and access to economic activity. • Tensions between some clans and sub-clans. Grievances and tensions continue to exist among certain clans and sub-clans. Thus, the federal model of governance is critical so that regions are able to form their own political leaders and states, which would then be responsible for the rights and development of the clans in their areas. • Marginalization of the youth (who form the majority of Somalia’s population) combined with high unemployment rate puts youth at risk, especially in the context of insurgency and gang violence. Efforts are being made under the new leadership to address outstanding issues that were inherited from the previous government, which include political transition toward democratization, constitutional review, establishing effective, transparent and accountable government institutions and initiation of a wider reconciliation process. This transition process is not without its challenges as observed in the standoff between the Federal Member States and the FGS in September 2018, which has affected the political dialogue process. The politics of Somalia remain clan-based, and regional in nature. The Country Resilience and Fragility Assessment (CRFA) substantiates the above quantitatively through highlighting the capacities and pressures across the following 7 dimensions: Inclusive Politics, Security, Justice, Economic and Social Inclusiveness, Social Cohesion, Regional Spillover Effects and
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Climate/Environmental Impacts. The Road Infrastructure Programme takes these into account throughout a project design that enhances resilience as outlined below.
1. Fragility-responsive project design and approach
At the project-level, the design and implementation of the project (see activities and sub-activities) specifically targets some of the different drivers of fragility identified above. In applying the fragility-lens in this project, the proposed project-level interventions and activities are geared to address the identified pressures and build capacities. The underlying assumption in this approach is that by tailoring project interventions towards addressing project-level risks, the project ultimately contributes to remedy the major drivers of fragility. The project’s specific objectives are to improve: i) management of the road sector at the national level, and in the states of Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Jubaland, Puntland and South West, and ii) transport connectivity for road users in targeted road corridors in Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Jubaland, Puntland and South West regions of Somalia. The project also includes capacity development at institutional and direct beneficiary levels. The table below presents the risks emanating from the identified drivers of fragility related to this project, and how these shall be addressed. Table V.1: Building Resilience through a Fragility sensitive project design Drivers of Downside risks stemming from the Proposed Project interventions Fragility drivers of fragility Lack of • Social tensions and potential The programme entails: transport conflict among population infrastructure, resulting from shortage of (i) rehabilitation and surface dressing of 90 km of regional economic opportunities as a the existing BeledWeyne-Galkayo paved road; integration and result of limited public (ii) rehabilitation and surface dressing of 85 km of connectivity infrastructure the existing Galkayo-Garowe paved road; (iii) rehabilitation and construction of the existing 80km Luuq, Ganane-Dolow earth road to gravel road standard; and (iv) new construction of 100 km Galkayo-Elgula feeder road to compacted gravel standard Under • Uneven development across the • This programme includes technical assistance and development country and within states; capacity building activities which will result in and weak government not perceived as reinforced policies, laws and regulations, government present in rural areas, thereby institutions, and ability to plan, design, build, capacity eroding FGS and state- maintain and monitor roads, and deliver road government legitimacy; shortfall transportation services that are gender-responsive, in capacities to pro-actively environmental friendly, and climate resilient at provide public goods federal and regional levels
Un-employment • High number of youth engaged • Provision of job and training opportunities for (especially informal and sometime counter- youth, particularly young women among the productive activities due to lack of • Community awareness-raising on HIV/AIDS youth), high decent work opportunities. • Human trafficking sensitization and ESMP poverty rates • Lack of access to basic services implementation and exclusion
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Appendix IV: Detailed project costs
Table 1 : Project Cost by Category of Expenditures (EUR and UA million)
No Category EUR (million) UA (million) Foreign Local Total Foreign Local Total % of Cost Cost Cost Cost Foreign A Works 30.952 7.738 38.690 25.042 6.261 31.303 80 B Services 3.844 2.400 6.244 3.111 1.942 5.052 62 C Project Management & Operating Cost 4.241 2.828 7.069 3.432 2.288 5.719 60 D Compensation and Resettlement 0.000 3.500 3.500 0.000 2.832 2.832 0 Base Cost 39.038 16.465 55.503 31.584 13.322 44.906 70.33 Contingencies 3.550 0.887 4.437 2.871 0.718 3.589 80 TOTAL 42.587 17.353 59.940 34.456 14.039 48.495 70.86
Project cost by Financing instruments
Table 2: EDF /EU
No Category EUR (million) UA (million) Foreign Local Total Foreign Local Total % of Cost Cost Cost Cost Foreign A Works 25.305 6.326 31.631 20.473 5.118 25.591 80 B Services 1.724 1.076 2.800 1.395 0.870 2.265 62 C Project Management & Operating Cost 3.611 2.408 6.019 2.922 1.948 4.870 60 D Compensation and Resettlement 0.000 1.000 1.000 0.000 0.809 0.809 0 TOTAL 30.640 10.810 41.450 24.789 8.746 33.535 73.92
Table 3: ADF/PBA
No Category EUR (million) UA (million) Foreign Local Total Foreign Local Total % of Cost Cost Cost Cost Foreign A Works 4.240 1.060 5.300 3.430 0.858 4.288 80 B Services 1.798 1.122 2.919 1.454 0.908 2.362 62 C Project Management & Operating Cost 0.630 0.420 1.050 0.510 0.340 0.850 60 D Compensation and Resettlement 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 TOTAL 6.668 2.602 9.269 5.394 2.105 7.500 71.93
Table 4: TSF Pillar I (AfDB and Italy)
No Category EUR (million) UA (million) Foreign Local Total Foreign Local Total % of Cost Cost Cost Cost Foreign A Works 3.526 0.881 4.407 2.853 0.713 3.566 80 B Services 0.810 0.506 1.316 0.656 0.409 1.065 62 C Project Management & Operating Cost 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 D Compensation and Resettlement 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 TOTAL 4.336 1.387 5.723 3.508 1.122 4.630 75.76
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Appendix V : Project Map
Beledweyne-Galkayo, 327km. Rehabilitate and surface dressing 82km section Galkayo-Garowe, 240km. Rehabilitate and surface dressing 85km section Galkayo-Hobyo feeder road, 241km. Construct 100km compacted gravel standard Luuq-Dolow earth road, 80km. Construct entire 80km of compacted gravel
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