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Flight Transportation Laboratory Report R-95-4 A

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Flight Transportation Laboratory Report R-95-4 A FLIGHT TRANSPORTATION LABORATORY REPORT R-95-4 A CRITICAL REVIEW OF WORLD JET TRANSPORT SAFETY ERIC D. ACHTMANN MAY 1995 ARCHNJES A Critical Review of World Jet Transport Safety by Eric D. Achtmann Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics on May 1, 1995, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Aeronautics and Astronautics Abstract This thesis is intended to serve as a comprehensive introduction to world jet transport safety and aviation fire safety. Divided into six sections, this thesis contains: 1) a statistical review of overall levels of safety and risk assessment in world jet transportation, 2) a statistical breakdown of jet accidents occurring between 1970 and 1992 by accident type and cause, 3) a case review of major jet accidents involving fire, 4) a review of fire prevention and fire hardening measures in jet transport aircraft, 5) a review of fire management practices in world jet transport aviation, and 6) a comprehensive chronological summary of all world jet transport accidents occurring between 1970 and 1992. Special emphasis is placed on fire safety, as statistics have shown that both in-flight and post-crash fires are among least survivable of all accident causes and are leaders in total fatalities. Included is an exhaustive review of aviation fire-fighting agents and equipment, as well as design parameters and equipment used for the fire hardening of jet aircraft. Finally, an economic analysis is included to illustrate the economic impact of fire safety measures. Thesis Supervisor: Robert W. Simpson, Ph.D. Title: Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics Director, MIT Flight Transportation Laboratory -2- Foreword This thesis is intended to shed some light on the basics of jet transport and aviation fire safety. It was inspired by two years of experience accumulated while participating in the development, testing, and demonstration of a line of advanced technology fire fighting and spill mitigation agents to local and federal authorities, defense establishments, and industry. Those wishing to proceed with research in the fire safety field should note that many ideas about fire safety and fire-fighting are based on highly empirical data and personal experiences, generated and passed by word-of- mouth from generation to generation. As a result, it is of paramount importance that the researcher be extremely critical of all information obtained through discussion or communications with seemingly experienced individuals. There is no substitute for seeing test results, and even then, the researcher must be aware of the reasoning behind and conditions of the test. It is the author's sincere hope that this thesis will serve to remove some of the guesswork for those trying to understand the basics of these areas and will help to provide a foundation for further work. - 3- Acknowledgments First and foremost, I wish to acknowledge and extend my deepest gratitude and respect to Professor Robert W. Simpson, Director of the M.I.T. Flight Transportation Laboratory, for his kindness, support, interest, and above all, for his open-mindedness in allowing me to pursue my many areas of interest. I would also like to thank the many excellent professors who offered the support, advice, and instruction from which I have benefited so greatly over the past two years, most notably Professors Arnold Barnett, Peter Belobaba, and Amedeo Odoni. Special thanks to Prof. Dr. -Ing. Gunter Kappler of the Technische Universitit Minchen and Prof. Franz Brugelmans of the von Karman Institute for Fluid Dynamics for their good example and support. Thanks to C. Y. Kimura for his contribution of the underlying data in this thesis. For their encouragement and support, I wish to thank my many friends and family, both at and outside M.I.T. Very special thanks to Alina Fyros and family, Rudi and Nini Kagerer, Sonny, and Gunter for their love, warmth, and good humor in times of happiness and support in times of need. Finally, I wish to thank those people who have served as such great examples to me, most notably Monsieur Georges Denjean and, in memory, Monsieur Pierre Strihl. -4- Table of Contents Abstract.................................................................................. 2 Foreword ......................................................................................... 3 Acknowledgments ............................................................................ 4 Table of Contents......................................................................... 5 List of Figures............................................................................... 9 List of Tables ............................................................................... 10 Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................ 12 1.1 Safety in World Jet Transportation........................................................ 12 1.2 Current Levels of Safety in World Jet Transportation and the Assessment of Risk.................................................................... 12 Chapter 2: Accidents in World Jet Transportation: 1970-1992................................................................17 2.1 World Jet Transportation Safety Statistics........................................... 17 2.2 Classification of Accidents and Risk in World Jet Transportation............................................................................................ 18 2.2.1 Accidents versus Incidents .......................................................... 18 2.2.2 Defining Scope of Operations and Aircraft Class.................... 19 2.2.3 Accidents by Stage of Flight ........................................................ 20 2.2.4 Accident Types............................................................................... 24 2.3 Bird Strikes.................................................................................................. 25 2.4 Collisions..................................................................................................... 26 2.4.1 Mid-Air Collisions......................................................................... 26 2.4.2 Collision with Man-Made Obstacles and Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT)....................................... 28 2.5 Dangerous Weather ................................................................................. 29 2.6 Decompression........................................................................................... 31 -5- 2.7 D itching......................................................... .------ ---- --- .... 32 2.8 Failed Take-Off or Landing..............................34 2.9 Fuel Exhaustion......................................................... - - - ........ 35 2.10 Ground Stationary Accidents................................................................... 36 2.11 Ground Taxiing Accidents...............................37 2.12 In-Flight Explosion............................................... ...38 2.13 In-Flight Fire........................................40 2.14 Major M echanical Failure.............................................................. .... 41 2.15 Post-Crash Fires......................................42 2.16 W ake-Vortex Upset....................................................................43 2.17 Summary and Ranking of Jet Transport Accident Survivability and Fatality Tolls.............................................................. 45 Chapter 3: Case Review of Major World Jet Transport Accidents Involving Fire: 1970 - 1992......................49 3.1 Overview...........................................................................------49 3.2 Cause of Death in Jet Aviation Accidents Since 1970 ........................ 49 3.3 Air Transport Fire Accident Case Studies ............................................ 51 3.3.1 Saudia In-Flight Cargo Compartment Fire (08/19/80)...................................................................53 3.3.2 Korean Air Lines (KAL) Post-Crash Fire (11/19/80).................................................................. .....-.. 54 3.3.3 Spantax Post-Crash Fire (10/13/82)............................................55 3.3.4 Air Canada In-Flight Lavatory Fire (06/02/83)..................56 3.3.5 Gulf Air In-Flight Cargo Compartment Fire (09/23/83)........................................................................................ 56 3.3.6 Union de Transport Ariennes (UTA) Ground Cargo Compartment Fire (03/16/85)..............................................57 3.3.7 British Air Tours Post-Crash Fire (08/22/85)...........................58 3.3.8 American Transport (ATA) Ground Cargo Compartment Fire (08/10/86)......................................................58 3.3.9 South African Airlines (SAA) In-Flight Cargo Fire (11/28/87)............................................................................ .. .. 59 3.3.10 Delta Airlines Post-Crash Fire (08/31/88).................................59 -6- 3.4 Conclusions................................................................... .......--- - 60 Chapter 4: Fire Prevention and Fire Hardening of Jet Transport Aircraft........................................ .. 61 4.1 Overview.....................................61 4.2 Designing for Fire ................................................................ ...61 4.2.1 General Approaches...............................................................61 4.2.2 Numerical Methods..............................62 4.3 Jet Transport Aircraft Interior
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