TerrorismFederation Analysis Report 1 of June 2011 American Scientists Terrorism Analysis Report No. 1 June 2011 Anatomizing Non-State Threats to Pakistan’s Nuclear Infrastructure: The Pakistani Neo-Taliban By CHARLES P. BLAIR Federation of American Scientists Terrorism Analysis Report 1 June 2011 Federation of American Scientists www.FAS.org Terrorism Analysis Report 1 June 2011 Anatomizing Non-State Threats to Pakistan’s Nuclear Infrastructure: The Pakistani Neo-Taliban Federation of American Scientists Terrorism Analysis Report 1 June 2011 About the Report The Federation of American Scientists’s Terrorism Analysis Project (TAP) is con- ducting a multi-year study of nuclear weapon and fissile material security in South Asia. The researchers’ intention is to highlight specific elements of the nuclear fuel-cycles and nuclear weapon infrastructures of both Pakistan and India that warrant the international community’s greatest concern. TAP’s over- arching methodological approach involves quantitative analyses of the specific violent non-state actors most likely to exploit nuclear weapons-related opportu- nities in Pakistan and India. Thus, while TAP researchers accept that the issue of nuclear security is partially a “supply-side” problem, they strive to identify and assess the “demand-side” of the situation as well. “After all,” terrorism expert Jeffrey Bale has rightly noted, “if violence-prone extremist groups had no inter- est in acquiring or employing such materials, it would not matter, insofar as ter- rorism is concerned, whether those materials were accessible or whether the groups in question had sufficient technical capabilities to be able to deploy them.”* The greatest threat to Pakistan’s nuclear infrastructure emanates from jihadists both inside Pakistan and South and Central Asia, generally. While there is a broad appreciation of this danger, there are few substantive studies that identify and explore specific groups motivated and potentially capable of acquiring and employing Pakistani nuclear weapons and/or fissile materials. This report fills that gap by exploring the Pakistani Neo-Taliban (PNT) and the dozens of groups that compositely fill its ranks. Originally this report was to be a section of TAP’s South Asian Nuclear Security Report—scheduled for release by FAS in winter 2011-2012. However, when Usama bin Laden was killed in Pakistan on May 2, 2011, and with ongoing concerns about Pakistan’s links to jihadist organizations targeting the U.S. and her interests, FAS decided to immediately release the section that explores the PNT as well as its constituent groups and allies. * Jeffrey M. Bale et al. Anatomizing Radiological and Nuclear Non-State Adversaries: Identifying the Adversary. Report prepared for the Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, grant number N00140510629 (College Park, MD: Na- tional Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, 2009), p. 13. i Federation of American Scientists Terrorism Analysis Report 1 June 2011 About the Author Charles P. Blair joined FAS in June 2010 as director of the Terrorism Analy- sis Project. An expert in radiological and nuclear weapons and specializing in terrorism, Blair's work focuses on the nexus of violent non-state actors and weapons of mass destruction (WMD). He is also an instructor at Johns Hopkins University where he teaches graduate students the technologies underlying WMD. Before joining FAS, he was a research associate with the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terror- ism where, among other projects, he managed the Global Terrorism Data- base, the largest open-source compilation of terrorist events in the world. Since 2005, Blair has co-directed the research organization Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies. CETIS studies terrorist targeting and decision making as they relate to critical infrastructure vulnerability. U.S. governmental agencies rely on this group’s pioneering research. Previ- ously, Blair worked with the National Nuclear Security Administration's (NNSA) Nuclear Cities Initiative and has served as a research associate at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies’ (CNS) Monterey Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism Research Program. Subsequently, he was an inves- tigative researcher for the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) where he researched and interacted with a variety of domestic extremist groups, including components of the so-called “militia” movement, white supremacists, neo-Nazis, millenarian Christian Identity adherents, and radical environmental and ecological activists. ii Federation of American Scientists www.FAS.org Terrorism Analysis Report 1 June 2011 Acknowledgements The author thanks Jeffrey M. Bale for his feedback on a draft of this report, Monica Amarelo for her work formatting the report, and Dena Nishek for her assistance in its final editing. The author alone, however, is responsible for any mistakes and, unless otherwise indicated, all opinions are his. Elements of this report previously appeared in Anatomizing Radiological and Nuclear Non-State Adversaries: Identifying the Adversary, report prepared for the Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, grant number N00140510629. iii Federation of American Scientists www.FAS.org Terrorism Analysis Report 1 June 2011 About FAS Founded in 1945 by many of the scientists who built the first atomic bombs, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) is devoted to the belief that scientists, engineers, and other technically trained people have the ethical obligation to ensure that the technological fruits of their intellect and labor are applied to the benefit of humankind. The founding mission was to prevent nuclear war. While nuclear security remains a major objective of FAS today, the organization has expanded its critical work to issues at the intersection of applied science and security. FAS Terrorism Analysis Reports are produced to increase the understanding of policymakers, the public, and the press about threats to national and interna- tional security from terrorist groups and other violent non-state actors. The reports are written by individual authors—who may be FAS staff or acknowl- edged experts from outside the institution. These reports do not represent an FAS institutional position on policy issues. All statements of fact and expres- sions of opinion contained in this and other FAS-published reports are the sole responsibility of the author or authors. For more information about FAS or this Terrorism Analysis Report, please call TEL 202-546-3300, email [email protected] or visit the website at www.FAS.org. Copyright © 2011 by the Federation of American Scientists. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. iv Federation of American Scientists www.FAS.org Terrorism Analysis Report 1 June 2011 Glossary and Abbreviations FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas GTD Global Terrorism Database HuJI Harakat ul-Jihad al-Islami (Movement of Islamic Holy War) HuM Harakat ul-Mujahidin (The Movement of the Mujahidin) HuMA Harkat-ul-Mujahidin-al-Alami (The International Movement of the Mujahidin) ISI Pakistan’s Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence JeM Jaysh-e-Muhammed (Army of Muhammed) JI Jamaat-e-Islami JUI Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam JUI-F Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazlur Rehman) JUI-S Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Sami ul-Haq) IMU Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa The province of north-western Pakistan formerly known as the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) LeJ Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (Army of Jhang) LeT Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (Army of the Pure) MMA Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (United Council of Action) OEF Operation Enduring Freedom PA Political Agents (of the Pakistani Government) PNT Pakistani Neo-Taliban SSP Sipah-e-Sahaba (Army of the Companions of the Prophet) TNSM Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shāri‘a t-e-Mohammadi (Movement for the Enforcement of Islamic Shāri‘a) TTP Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (Movement of the Pakistani Taliban). WITS World Incidents Tracking System v Federation of American Scientists www.FAS.org Terrorism Analysis Report 1 June 2011 Table of Contents i About this Report ii About the Author iii Acknowledgements iv About FAS v Glossary and Abbreviations 1 Preface 3 Executive Summary 12 Introduction 15 Defining the Pakistani Neo-Taliban 17 Historical Evolution of the Pakistani Neo-Taliban 18 Late 2001– Mid-2004 40 Late 2004 – Late-2007 45 Late 2007 – Mid-2011 68 Behavioral Elements of the Pakistani Neo-Taliban 69 Ideology 79 Organization Structure 90 Relations with other Groups 118 General Resources and Capabilities 132 Decision Making 134 Appendix I: Summary of Notable PNT-Related Attacks LIST OF FIGURES 12 Figure 1: Incidents of Reported Terrorism in Pakistan 2001-2010 14 Figure 2: Taliban Related Attacks in Pakistan 2001-2010 43 Figure 3: FATA’s Terrorism Related Deaths 2005-2010 47 Figure 4: Suicide Attacks in Pakistan 2004-2010 74 Figure 5: Suicide Attacks in Afghanistan 1970-2010 90 Figure 6: Groups Linked to or Part of the PNT 100 Figure 7: Conceptualizing Harakat Groups: HIIA, HuJI, HuM, HuA and HuMA 111 Figure 8: LeJ Confirmed Attacks in Pakistan by Administrative Unit 2004-2010 vi Federation of American Scientists www.FAS.org Terrorism Analysis Report 1 June 2011 LIST OF BOXES 22 Box 1: Maliks, Mullahs, and Political Agents: Changing Roles amid FATA’s Tumult 33 Box 2: Nek Mohammad Wazir: Pashtun Paragon of the PNT 34 Box 3: Agreements between Pakistan and Wazari-Based Elements of the PNT 42 Box 4: Sufi Mohammad and TNSM 121 Box 5: Pakistan’s