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From the Editor EDITORIAL STAFF From the Editor ELIZABETH SKINNER Editor Happy New Year, everyone. As I write this, we’re a few weeks into 2021 and there ELIZABETH ROBINSON Copy Editor are sparkles of hope here and there that this year may be an improvement over SALLY BAHO Copy Editor the seemingly endless disasters of the last one. Vaccines are finally being deployed against the coronavirus, although how fast and for whom remain big sticky questions. The United States seems to have survived a political crisis that brought EDITORIAL REVIEW BOARD its system of democratic government to the edge of chaos. The endless conflicts VICTOR ASAL in Syria, Libya, Yemen, Iraq, and Afghanistan aren’t over by any means, but they have evolved—devolved?—once again into chronic civil agony instead of multi- University of Albany, SUNY national warfare. CHRISTOPHER C. HARMON 2021 is also the tenth anniversary of the Arab Spring, a moment when the world Marine Corps University held its breath while citizens of countries across North Africa and the Arab Middle East rose up against corrupt authoritarian governments in a bid to end TROELS HENNINGSEN chronic poverty, oppression, and inequality. However, despite the initial burst of Royal Danish Defence College change and hope that swept so many countries, we still see entrenched strong-arm rule, calcified political structures, and stagnant stratified economies. PETER MCCABE And where have all the terrorists gone? Not far, that’s for sure, even if the pan- Joint Special Operations University demic has kept many of them off the streets lately. Closed borders and city-wide curfews may have helped limit the operational scope of ISIS, Lashkar-e-Taiba, IAN RICE al-Qaeda, and the like for the time being, but we know the teeming refugee camps US Army (Ret.) of Syria are busy producing the next generation of violent ideological extremists. Meanwhile, other groups such as al Shabaab and Boko Haram have continued ANNA SIMONS their depredations, and random bomb attacks by the Taliban—in the midst of US Naval Postgraduate School “peace negotiations”—are making life in the city of Kabul increasingly perilous for residents and visitors alike. SHYAM TEKWANI Asia-Pacific Center for So, the endless work of trying to make the world a better place amid hope and Security Studies fear continues. This issue ofCTX begins with an analysis by Command Sergeant Major Thomas CRAIG WHITESIDE Myers. He tackles Irregular War theory and the confusion that can arise when US Naval War College we misuse terminology to describe and understand the kinds of conflicts that are being fought today. His contention is that a common frame of reference is Layout and Design Provided by: Graduate Education Advancement Center, Naval Postgraduate School Spring 2021 1 required for military theory to be useful to the operator, and that this frame of reference needs to be grounded in doctrine. Next is a look at how SOF can use its unique skillsets to support both defensive and offensive cyber operations in contemporary hybrid conflict and counterter- rorism operations. Using the Netherlands’ efforts to create a SOF-cyber unit as his example, Major Jonas van Hooren describes three possible configurations at the organizational level, and also warns about some of the obstacles and pitfalls that might cause such efforts to fail. Our third feature is an unusual study of radicalization as it has unfolded in recent years in Pakistan. In a series of interviews conducted by a Pakistani national over about a year’s time, a broad selection of respondents from throughout Pakistani society discuss what they believe to be the foundations of radical sectarianism and “jihadi culture” in their country. With just a few light analytical touches, Dr. David Belt lets the interviewees speak for themselves. Both the interviewees and the interviewer remain anonymous to protect them from possible repercussions. For the Ethics and Insights column, George Lober continues his ruminations “On Truth, Lies, and Loyalty,” which he began in the previous issue of CTX (vol. 10, no. 2, Summer 2020). Lober first distinguishes between ethical and moral choices; then, using the 2015 Danish filmA War as the basis for his discussion, shows how difficult it can be to make moral and ethical judgements about deci- sions taken in battle. When a choice has to be made, whose lives will matter the most? We have two book reviews for you in this issue. First, Chief Warrant Officer Rick Manley reviews How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns by Audrey Kurth Cronin. Cronin uses a framework of actors and interests to evaluate contemporary approaches to counterterrorism and, as Manley points out, makes a compelling case that strategies of compellence rather than leverage are doomed to fail over the long run. Then, Major George W. Bailey reviews Blood in the Fields: Ten Years Inside California’s Nuestra Familia Gang by Julia Reynolds. Bailey recommends the book for its descriptions of prison gang culture, recruitment, and indoctrination, which he feels will help CT professionals better understand the internal dynamics of terrorist organizations. Check out the new book by Dr. Glenn Robinson, Global Jihad: A Brief History, on our publications page. You can also read an article based on a chapter of the book in the Summer 2020 issue of CTX (vol. 10, no. 2). Stay in touch with Global ECCO on Facebook. Send your article ideas and drafts to [email protected]. You, the professionals of the global CT com- munity, are what make CTX unique and valuable, and we rely on you to let us know how we’re doing. Meanwhile, stay healthy, and may we all enjoy a peaceful, happier spring. Elizabeth Skinner Editor, CTX 2 Inside LETTER FROM THE EDITOR Elizabeth Skinner 06 62 Irregular War is Revolutionary THE WRITTEN WORD CSM Thomas Myers, How Terrorism Ends: Understanding US Army the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns By Audrey Kurth Cronin Reviewed by CW3 Rick Manley, US Army 18 66 How Dutch Special THE WRITTEN WORD Operations Forces Can Blood in the Fields: Ten Years Inside Support Cyber Operations: California’s Nuestra Familia Gang A Symbiotic Relationship By Julia Reynolds MAJ Jonas van Hooren, Reviewed by MAJ George W. Bailey, Netherlands Marine Corps US Army 34 70 Causes of the Ongoing Mass PUBLICATIONS Radicalization of Islam in Pakistan: An Ethnography Dr. David D. Belt, National Intelligence University 58 ETHICS AND INSIGHTS On Truth, Lies, and Loyalty: Part Two George Lober ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS Major George W. Bailey is a US Army Civil Affairs Chief Warrant Officer 3 Rick Manley is a 16-year officer who has served in Afghanistan and deployed member of the US Army Special Forces Regiment. He has throughout the Middle East. He recently earned his had numerous operational deployments to the CENTCOM master’s degree in Defense Analysis (Irregular Warfare) and theater in support of contingency operations, as well as a Certificate in Middle Eastern Regional Security Studies significant operational time spent in or focused on the from the US Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), Monterey, USINDOPACOM region. He is currently pursuing a master California. He is currently pursuing a master’s degree in of science degree in Defense Analysis (Irregular Warfare) computer science at Johns Hopkins University. at NPS. Dr. David D. Belt is a professor at National Intelligence Command Sergeant Major Thomas Myers currently University, Washington, DC, where he specializes in the serves as the Senior Enlisted Leader for the US Army’s In- social analysis of strategic-level security issues emerging ternational Special Training Center, Pfullendorf, Germany. from global Islamist movements worldwide. Previously, Dr. He has served more than 20 years in the US Army Special Belt was an assistant professor of National Security Studies Forces. CSM Myers holds a master’s degree in intelligence at National Defense University, where he developed and studies and a certificate in ancient and classical history taught the university’s first national security professional from American Military University. certified course on countering violent extremism. He served 26 years in the US Navy’s Special Operations Officer community (non-SEAL) before retiring with the rank of captain. George Lober retired as a senior lecturer from the Defense Analysis department of NPS in 2016. Prior to his retirement, he initiated and instructed a course in Critical Thinking and Ethical Decision Making. Major Jonas van Hooren began his military career in 1998. After completing the Royal Marine Mountain Leader course in the UK and officer training in the Neth- erlands, he conducted combat tours in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan between 2003 and 2006. MAJ van Hooren was in charge of the Centre of Excellence Military Opera- tions for extreme conditions; he later commanded the international squadron of Maritime Special Operations Forces (MARSOF) and led a Combined Joint Special Operations Maritime Task Group. Currently, he is head of future plans at the MARSOF HQ in the Netherlands. He holds a BS degree in economics and an MS in Defense Analysis (Irregular Warfare) from NPS. 4 COVER PHOTO Ukrainian and Polish people protest against Russian military actions on the Crimean Peninsula during a pro-peace demonstration in front of the Russian Embassy, Warsaw, 2 March 2014. WOJTEK RADWANSKI/AFP via Getty Images DISCLAIMER This journal is not an official DoD publication. The views expressed or implied within are those of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any governmental or non-governmental organization or agency of the United States of America or any other country. TERMS OF COPYRIGHT Copyright © 2021 by the author(s), except where otherwise noted. TheCombating Terrorism Exchange journal (CTX) is a peer-reviewed, quarterly journal available free of charge to individuals and institutions.
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