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Alliance Politics in Hybrid Regimes: Political Stability and Instability Since World War II

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Alliance Politics in Hybrid Regimes: Political Stability and Instability Since World War II Université de Montréal Alliance Politics in Hybrid Regimes: Political Stability and Instability since World War II par Jean-François Gagné Département de science politique, Faculté des arts et des sciences Thèse présentée à la Faculté des études supérieures et postdoctorales en vue de l’obtention du grade de Ph.D. en science politique août 2012 © Jean-François Gagné, 2012 Université de Montréal Faculté des études supérieures et postdoctorales Cette thèse intitulée : Alliance Politics in Hybrid Regimes: Political Stability and Instability since World War II Présentée par : Jean-François Gagné A été évaluée par un jury composé des personnes suivantes : Magdalena Dembinska présidente-rapporteuse Diane Éthier directrice de recherche Graciela Ducatenzeiler membre du jury Leonardo Morlino examinateur externe Pierre Bonnechere représentant du doyen ii Remerciements Je tiens à remercier en premier lieu ma directrice de thèse Diane Éthier qui, pendant les cinq dernières années, a vu grandir ce formidable projet. Ses conseils judicieux et sa confiance à toute épreuve en mes recherches ont été une source d’inspiration et de motivation exceptionnelle. En raison de sa rigueur, sa générosité, sa curiosité et son ouverture intellectuelle, sa contribution à l’avancement de mes travaux a été inestimable. Diane, je vous en serai éternellement reconnaissant. Je voudrais également remercier la professeure Graciela Ducatenzeiler et les étudiants et étudiantes du séminaire de synthèse en politique comparée, ceux et celles du séminaire sur les théories et les processus de démocratisation donné par la professeure Diane Éthier et enfin le professeur Richard Nadeau de même que les étudiants et étudiantes de son séminaire de thèse. Dans le contexte de ces trois séminaires, j’ai pu échanger sur de nombreuses thématiques liées à ma thèse et présenter l’évolution de ma réflexion. Je souhaite particulièrement remercier ma mère, Diane Vermette, qui grâce à ses nombreux voyages à l’étranger et ses expériences professionnelles à travers le monde a su jeter un regard réaliste, critique et perspicace sur mes travaux. Plus largement, ma famille et mes amis ont été une source inépuisable d’encouragement, de soutien affectif et d’appui moral. Je pense à Diane Vermette, Pierre Gagné, Louis-Philippe Gagné, Monique Renaud-Gagné, Réal Lalande, Raphaël Gagné, Justin Laramée, Christine Bérubé, Olivier Sirois, Mélanie Cambrezy, Olivier Schmitt, et à tous les autres. Merci! Mes remerciements vont aussi à mes collègues du bureau des doctorants du département de science politique. Au cours des années, il y a eu roulement; mais les irréductibles Maxime Boucher, Julien Morency-Laflamme et Nordin Lazreg sont restés. iii Je souhaite enfin remercier les organismes suivants pour leur soutien financier : le Conseil de recherches en sciences humaines du Canada (CRSH), la Faculté des études supérieures et postdoctorales de l’Université de Montréal et le Département de science politique de l’Université de Montréal. Enfin, je remercie les patients relecteurs de ce travail : Diane Vermette et Willy Blomme. iv Résumé Cette thèse étudie la stabilité et l’instabilité politique des régimes hybrides. Elle pose la question suivante : dans quelles conditions l’autorité des élites au pouvoir est-elle reconnue ou contestée? Notre réponse s’articule en lien avec le caractère inclusif ou exclusif de la coalition dirigeante : c’est-à-dire, l’alliance stratégique des élites dirigeantes avec les groupes sociaux dominants. L’inclusion de ces derniers favorise le consentement et la stabilité; leur exclusion entraîne l’affrontement et l’instabilité politique. Sa composition dépend (i) du degré de violence organisée extra-légale et (ii) du degré de pénétration de l’État sur le territoire et dans l’économie. La première variable permet d’identifier quel groupe social au sein de l’État (militaires) ou du régime (partis d’opposition) est dominant et influence les formes de communication politique avec les élites dirigeantes. La deuxième variable permet d’identifier quel groupe social au sein de l’État (fonctionnaires) ou de la société (chefs locaux) est dominant et oriente les rapports entre les régions et le pouvoir central. L’apport de la recherche est d’approfondir notre compréhension des institutions politiques dans les régimes hybrides en mettant l’accent sur l’identité des groupes sociaux dominants dans un contexte donné. La thèse propose un modèle simple, flexible et original permettant d’appréhender des relations causales autrement contre-intuitives. En ce sens, la stabilité politique est également possible dans un pays où l’État est faible et/ou aux prises avec des mouvements de rébellion; et l’instabilité dans un contexte inverse. Tout dépend de la composition de la coalition dirigeante. Afin d’illustrer les liens logiques formulés et d’exposer les nuances de notre théorie, nous employons une analyse historique comparative de la coalition dirigeante en Malaisie (1957- 2010), en Indonésie (1945-1998), au Sénégal (1960-2010) et au Paraguay (1945-2008). La principale conclusion est que les deux variables sont incontournables. L’une sans l’autre offre nécessairement une explication incomplète des alliances politiques qui forgent les conditions de stabilité et d'instabilité dans les régimes hybrides. Mots-clés : régime hybride, stabilité politique, instabilité politique, coalition dirigeante, militaires, partis d’opposition, fonctionnaires, chefs locaux, violence organisée extra-légale, pénétration de l’État. v Abstract The thesis studies stability and instability in hybrid regimes. The research question is: under which conditions the authority of the elites in power is recognized or contested? Our answer rests on the inclusive or exclusive dimension of the ruling coalition: that is, the strategic alliance between the ruling elites and dominant social groups. Inclusion favors consent and stability whereas exclusion favors contention and instability. The composition of the ruling coalition depends on (i) the degree of extra-legal organized violence and (ii) the degree of state penetration over the territory and in the economy. The first variable identifies which social group in the state (military officers) or in the regime (opposition parties) is dominant and influences the forms of political communication with the ruling elites. The second variable identifies which social group in the state (bureaucrats) or in society (local leaders) is dominant and shapes the relation between regions and the center. The thesis contribution is to deepen our understanding of political institutions in hybrid regimes by focusing on the identity of dominant social groups according to a given context. It offers a simple, flexible and original model that allow us to grasp causal relations that would otherwise be counter-intuitive. Hence, political stability is also possible in a country where the state is weak and/or rebellion movements exist; and instability in the opposite context. It all comes down to the composition of the ruling coalition. In order to illustrate the line of reasoning and unfold the richness of our framework, a comparative historical analysis of the ruling coalition in Malaysia (1957-2010), Indonesia (1945-1998), Senegal (1960-2010) and Paraguay (1945-2008) is used. The main conclusion is that the two variables are key. One without the other necessarily amounts to an incomplete explanation of political alliances at stake when dealing with conditions of stability and instability in hybrid regimes. Key words: hybrid regime, political stability, political instability, ruling coalition, military officers, opposition parties, bureaucrats, local leaders, extra-legal organized violence, state penetration. vi Table of Contents Remerciements ........................................................................................................... iii Résumé ......................................................................................................................... v Abstract ....................................................................................................................... vi Table of Contents ...................................................................................................... vii List of Tables .............................................................................................................. xi List of Figures ............................................................................................................ xii List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................... xiii Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 1 – What We Know and What We Do Not Know about Hybrid Regime Stability ................................................................................ 16 1.1. Political Regimes: Concepts and Typologies ...................................................... 17 1.1.1. Democratic and Autocratic Regimes ................................................................ 18 1.1.2. Types of Hybrid Regimes ................................................................................. 21 1.1.3. Typologies of Hybrid Regimes ......................................................................... 24 1.2. Approaches to Hybrid Regime Stability .............................................................. 33 1.2.1. The Economic Approach .................................................................................
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