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East African Scenarios Project Research Compendium

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East African Scenarios Project Research Compendium EAST AFRICAN SCENARIOS PROJECT RESEARCH COMPENDIUM The Society for International Development The Society for International Development (SID) is an international non-governmental network of individuals and organizations founded in 1957 to promote social justice and foster democratic participation. Through locally driven international programmes and activities, SID strengthens collective empowerment and facilitates dialogue and knowledge-sharing worldwide. In addressing issues from a multi-disciplinary perspective the Society emphasises systemic and long-term approaches with a central focus on institutional and social transformation. SID has over 55 chapters, 50 institutional and 3,000 members in 125 countries. Its secretariat is located in Rome, Italy and it operates a Regional Office for Eastern Africa based in Nairobi, Kenya. Published by: The Society for International Development Regional Office for Eastern Africa International Secretariat Britak House Via Panisperna 207 P.O. Box 2404 - 00100 Rome, 00184 Nairobi Kenya Italy Tel. +254-20-2737991 Tel. +39-064872172 Fax : +254-20-2737992 Fax. +39-064872170 E-Mail : [email protected] E-Mail: [email protected] Website: www.sidint.org ISBN: 978 - 9966 - 7026 - 8 - 5 © Society for International Development (SID) 2007 Permission should be sought from SID before any part of this book is reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means. Agreement will normally be given, provided that the source is acknowledged. This publication is one of the products of the East African Scenarios Project undertaken by the Society for International Development, with the support of the Governments of the Kingdom of the Netherlands and the Republic of Italy. The publication, however, remains the sole responsibility of the Society for International Development. Design and layout by: Marco Lovisatti Photos by: Paolo Robazza - Arthur Muliro - Barbara Heinzen Printed by: [to be inserted] ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This publication is one of the results of the East African Scenarios Project undertaken by the Society for International Development (SID) between 2005 and 2008. The project has been a broad collaborative effort of many individuals and institutions, and no single entity can take full credit for this work. The project benefited from the intellectual advice and guidance received from many East Africans in their roles as researchers, peer reviewers, members of the scenario-building team and experts. We would like to acknowledge the valuable contribution of the lead researchers: Jacob Akech, Dr. Godfrey Chesang, Don Deya, Professor A. Ginyera-Pincywa, Mburu J Gitau, James Kashangaki, Gertrude Mugizi, Dr. Musambayi Katumanga, Justice Kasanga Mulwa, Professor Godfrey Okoth, Dr. Adams Oloo, Samson Opolot, Kwame Owino and Dr. John Ruhangisa. Their selfless dedication to producing work of high quality is greatly appreciated. We gratefully acknowledge the role of Barbara Heinzen and Patrick Noack who identified, contacted and interviewed a diverse group of academic, analysts, business leaders and researchers, practitioners, analysts and commentators in the United Kingdom and the United States for the Northern Voices in this Compendium. We also acknowledge the important input from the group of reviewers who significantly enhanced the quality of the analysis contained in this report: Atuti Atunga, Professor Mwesiga Baregu, Professor Chachage Seithy Chachage (late), Ali Hersi, Magode Ikuya, Elsie Kanza, Godfrey Lwakatare, Betty Maina, Wachira Maina, Mwajuma Masaiganah, Sisule Musungu, Professor Owa-Mataze Nduhukhire (late), Joel Okao, Hulda Ouma, Abdu Simba, Katindi Sivi, and Muthoni Wanyeki. This publication benefited enormously from excellent copy editing by Neill Johnson. The research and logistical support from the following colleagues and volunteers is gratefully acknowledged: Irene Omari and Joshua Kikuvi (Nairobi), Gladys Kirungi (Kampala) and Elsie Eyakuze (Dar es Salaam). Finally, SID would especially like to thank the Governments of the Kingdom of the Netherlands (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) and of the Republic of Italy (Ministero degli Affari Esteri/DGCS) for their financial support to the East African Scenarios Project. On behalf of the Society for International Development, we coordinated this project and were honoured to work with such a dedicated group of East Africans in this effort to understand the nature and dynamics of the region. Aidan Eyakuze Editor and Contributor, East African Scenarios Project Research Compendium Programme Director, East African Scenarios Project Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Duncan Okello Director, Eastern Africa Regional Office Nairobi, Kenya Arthur Muliro Deputy Managing Director Rome, Italy October 2007 EAST AFRICAN SCENARIOS PROJECT RESEARCH COMPENDIUM TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE V Introduction and Overview THE PEOPLE OF EAST AFRICA PAGE 13 East Africa: One Identity or Multiple Identities? Adams Oloo PAGE 49 Migration in East Africa: Past, Present and Prognosis Godfrey Chesang INSTITUTIONS PAGE 81 The East African Community: Miracle or Mirage? Jacob A. Akech PAGE 107 An Institutional Analysis of the East African Community: Some Initial Reflections Donald Deya PAGE 145 Governance and Regional integration in East Africa A.G.G. Gingyera-Pinycwa ECONOMICS PAGE 177 Economic Policy and Performance in East Africa: a Survey of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda Aidan Eyakuze and M.J. Gitau PAGE 225 Public Finance in East Africa: an Examination of Regional Trends in Revenue Collection, Expenditure Management and Domestic and External Debt Dynamics James V.K. Kashangaki PAGE 257 Washington Consensus Meta-Narrative: What Next for East Africa? Gertrude Mugizi EAST AFRICA & THE WORLD PAGE 277 Multilateral Relations and the East African Community Kwame Owino PAGE 299 Geostrategic Implications of Shirikisho La Africa Mashariki Musambayi Katumanga RESEARCH COMPENDIUM INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW THE EAST AFRICAN SCENARIOS PROJECT The East African Scenarios Project is a response to the rapid political, economic and social changes taking place in East Africa and globally, which have created significant uncertainty for leaders, decision-makers and citizens. Initiated by the Society for International Development, the project takes advantage of the opportunities emerging as a result of economic liberalisation and the gradual expansion of political space in region to understand the forces shaping these changes and their implications for the future. The Project thus proposes new ways through which leaders and citizens can interrogate the past and present through the lens of the future. It will catalyse and promote dialogue between the decision-makers and the citizens about the future of their countries and the region, and what the roles of both might be in shaping or responding to these changes as they unfold. The East African Scenarios Project shall produce the following major outputs: a series of Annual State of East Africa Reports, this East African Scenarios Research Compendium containing 10 research papers unravelling the trends, patterns and driving forces in four thematic areas that were identified as being critical to understanding the region's future, and the East African Scenarios Stories describing the potential futures facing the region. These publications, and the conversations they shall catalyse, will inform and help politicians, technocrats, business, civil society leaders and citizens to think VII critically about the futures they might have to face, and to test how they would respond to situations that they might encounter. ABOUT THE RESEARCH COMPENDIUM This Compendium presents the output of a research process which started at the very beginning of the East African Scenarios Project in February 2005 when a group of 40 East Africans met to brainstorm, identify and discuss the major challenges and opportunities facing the region as it sought to consolidate and expand economic, social and ultimately political integration through the East African Community. It was quickly apparent that the diversity of histories, contexts, problems and experiences that individual East African countries had gone through were fundamental to an understanding of the motivation - official and popular - for regional integration. It was also clear that an understanding of the prospects for successful regional integration, and more broadly, the future welfare of East Africa's people required deeper research and reflection on the nature, status and underlying forces shaping the East African region. The following four major thematic areas emerged as a neat way to organise this reflection: EAST AFRICAN SCENARIOS PROJECT RESEARCH COMPENDIUM 1. The People of East Africa (origins and identities) 2. Institutions 3. The Regional Economy 4. East Africa and the World This Research Compendium compiles ten research papers commissioned by the Society for International Development and written by East Africans from academia, policy analysis and civil society. The papers went through two peer review sessions in Nairobi and Arusha and an iterative process of discussion and correspondence between the authors and project management team. An overview of each chapter is provided below. OVERVIEW OF THE CHAPTERS The People of East Africa In the opening chapter, East Africa: one identity or multiple identities? Adams Oloo argues that a meaningful political federation will require an East African identity to be developed and nurtured. He shows that East Africans' multiple identities,
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