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Tanzania: a Political Economy Analysis

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Tanzania: A Political Economy Analysis Stein Sundstøl Eriksen Report commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Publisher: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Copyright: © Norwegian Institute of International Affairs 2018 ISSN: 1894-650X The report has been commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Any views expressed in this publication are those of the author. They should not be interpreted as reflecting the views, official policy or position of the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. The text may not be printed in part or in full without the permission of the author. Visiting address: C.J. Hambros plass 2d Address: P.O. Box 8159 Dep. NO-0033 Oslo, Norway Internet: www.nupi.no E-mail: [email protected] Tel: [+ 47] 22 99 40 00 Tanzania: A Political-Economy Analysis Stein Sundstøl Eriksen Report commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs March 2018 Contents Map of Tanzania ................................................................................................................... V About the report .................................................................................................................. VI 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 Report Structure .......................................................................................................... 2 2. Historical background ................................................................................................. 3 Forging a ruling coalition – 1961 to 1992 ................................................................... 3 Economic and political reforms .................................................................................. 4 Reset postponed? ........................................................................................................ 5 3. Political and state institutions ................................................................................... 6 Chama Cha Mapinduzi ................................................................................................ 6 Public service administration ..................................................................................... 9 Political opposition ...................................................................................................... 10 Constitutional Reform .................................................................................................. 12 Anti-corruption ............................................................................................................. 13 Key risks and opportunities ........................................................................................ 14 4. Zanzibar ........................................................................................................................ 15 Zanzibar in the Union – constitutional and popular legitimacy ............................... 15 Zanzibar in the Union – political and economic dimensions ................................... 16 Key risk areas ............................................................................................................... 17 5. State–private sector relations .................................................................................... 18 Energy ........................................................................................................................... 18 Extractive Industries .................................................................................................... 19 Agriculture .................................................................................................................... 23 Key risks and opportunities ........................................................................................ 26 6. Civil Society ................................................................................................................. 27 Key risks and opportunities ........................................................................................ 29 7. International relations ................................................................................................ 30 Financing and investment ........................................................................................... 30 Relations with the donor community ......................................................................... 30 Regional relations ........................................................................................................ 31 Violent Extremism and organized crime .................................................................... 31 Key risk areas ............................................................................................................... 32 8. Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 34 References ............................................................................................................................ 36 Map of Tanzania UGANDA 30 32 Lake 34 36 38 ° L. ° ° °The boundaries and names shown° and the designations used Rushwa Bukoba Victoria Mar on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance Buoen a by the United Nations. U Musoma kar A Uker a RWANDA ewe I. R I. MARA o I. 2 E nd 2 bo me I KENYA ° u aiso . ° G R M Lake A SERENGETI Natron Mwanza UNITED REP. Ngara K Biharamulo Game Res. NAT. PARK OF Geita MT. KILIMANJARO TANZANIA yu Ngorongoro NAT. PARK Sim i Kilimanjaro MWANZA Maswa Conservation 5895 m Game Area BURUNDI Res. Arusha Kibondo SHINYANGA i M L. Eyasi sh Mo P o Lake a y Kahama Shinyanga n o Manyara g w TARANGIRE a KILIMANJARO n 4 o 4 i s NAT. PARK Mkomazi ° i Nzega Babati ° KIGOMA L. Kitangiri Same Game Res. be ARUSHA om I Kasulu G go Masai m Steppe Kigoma be Iwembere Steppe Mkomazi Kondoa INDIAN a Singida Ujiji Tobora ar A Tanga Wete aw L Kaliua h D M Korogwe Pemba a I a l U a G A k W G ga N Handeni Pangani e lla Ugalla River I Manyoni N S T A ZANZIBAR Game Zanzibar Res. TABORA 6 ba 6 ° m Dodoma ° Li Sadani Zanzibar Sham Mpanda a Mpwapwa T K is a RUKWA ig Kibaha o Wami DAR ES SALAAM n KATAVI DODOMA Morogoro g N.P. Rungwa Dar es a n a Game e y gw P b Salaam i un it Reserve m Gre R i jo a MIKUMI k N RUAHA t a N.P. O DEMOCRATIC NAT. PARK Ru OCEAN ah PWANI REPUBLIC a a R OF THE ah Mafia I. Lake Ru Iringa R CONGO Rukwa O ufiji 8 Utete 8 Sumbawanga G ° MBEYA t ji ° a fi Mpui re O u Mohoro Chunya G IRINGA R R Selous Game Mbeya O Kilwa ZAMBIA Reserve du M tan Kivinje o u a r d M Tunduma Njombe e n b a Tukuyu m g K lo gu n I i e a UNITED REPUBLIC P K uw r E L a LINDI R N b A M u OF N G ur E k G em E R b 10 E M Lindi 10 ° TANZANIA L ° National capital M a Nachingwea Mtwara k Songea e Provincial capital A Masasi Town, village Newala L MTWARA RUVUMA Airport N Tunduru uma A uv International boundary y R a W E Provincial boundary s Q U a B I Main road I A M 12° M O Z 12° Secondary road 0 100 200 300 km Railroad 0 100 200 mi 30° 32° 34° 36° 38° Map No. 3667 Rev. 6 UNITED NATIONS Department of Peacekeeping Operations January 2006 Tanzania, Map No. 3667 Rev.6, January 2006, UNITEDCartographic NATIONS Section V About the report In June 2016, the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Comprehensive Terms of Reference (ToR) Affairs (MFA) commissioned NUPI to provide were developed to serve as a general template for political economy analyses of eleven countries all eleven country analyses. The country-specific (Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Haiti, Malawi, Mali, ToR and scope of these analyses were further Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Somalia, South determined in meetings between the MFA, the Sudan and Tanzania) deemed important to Nor- Norwegian embassies, NUPI and the individual wegian development cooperation. The intention researchers responsible for the country studies. was to consolidate and enhance expertise on these NUPI has also provided administrative support countries, so as to improve the quality of the and quality assurance of the overall process. MFA’s future country-specific involvement and In some cases, NUPI has commissioned part- strategy development. Such political economy ner institutions to write the political economy analyses focus on how political and economic analyses. power is constituted, exercised and contested. VI 1. Introduction It is now more than two years since President stitutional provision that guaranteed joint rule by John Pombe Magufuli was elected President of the two major parties. Tanzania. Significant efforts have been made at Parallel to these politically driven domestic addressing corruption, reforming public service events, important regional and international practice, and maximizing public revenues – developments should be taken into consideration accompanied by a return to an increasingly statist any analysis of the country’s political economy. approach to economic management and business The threat of Al Shabaab and affiliated groups, development in which actions have not always although low compared with the case in Kenya followed due process. In view of the country’s or Somalia, is significant. As regards diplomatic significant offshore petroleum resources, and its affairs, the Magufuli government has become growing onshore sector, the new political turn more involved in regional affairs, and thereby has significant and wide-ranging implications. more open to regional and opportunities risks. This reforming
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