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Election Violence in Zanzibar – Ongoing Risk of Violence in Zanzibar 15 March 2011

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Election Violence in Zanzibar – Ongoing Risk of Violence in Zanzibar 15 March 2011 Country Advice Tanzania Tanzania – TZA38321 – Revolutionary State Party (CCM) – Civic United Front (CUF) – Election violence in Zanzibar – Ongoing risk of violence in Zanzibar 15 March 2011 1. Please provide a background of the major political parties in Tanzania focusing on the party in power and the CUF. The United Republic of Tanzania was formed in 1964 as a union between mainland Tanganyika and the islands of Unguja and Pemba, which together comprise Zanzibar. Since 1977, it has been ruled by the Revolutionary State Party (Chama Cha Mapinduzi or CCM). In 1992 the government legislated for multiparty democracy, and the country is now a presidential democratic republic with a multiparty system. The first multiparty national elections were held in 1995, and concurrent presidential and parliamentary elections have since been held every 5 years. The CCM has won all elections to date. The CUF, founded in 1991, constituted the main opposition party following the 1995 multiparty elections.1 At the most recent elections in October 2010, the CCM‟s Jakaua Kikwete was re-elected President with 61.7% of the vote (as compared to 80% of the vote in 2005) and the CCM secured almost 80% of the seats. Most of the opposition votes went to the Chadema party, which displaced the Civic United Front (CUF) for the first time as the official opposition. The opposition leader is Chadema‟s Chairman, Freeman Mbowe. Chadema‟s presidential candidate, Willibrod Slaa, took 27% of the vote, while CUF‟s Ibrahim Lipumba received 8%.2 Notwithstanding the CCM‟s election success, the BBC reports that Kikwete‟s “political legitimacy has been seen by some to have been somewhat dented in the 2010 elections”, given the decline in his percent of the vote, and a total election turnout of only 42%, down from 72% in 2005. The opposition Chadema party “rejected the outcome, alleging fraud”.3 Observers noted that “experts and politicians cited low turnout of voters during the polling day as the major setback towards the growth for democracy in the country.”4 A Reuters article from January 2011 similarly noted that President Kikwete‟s re-election in October 2010 was “marred by a record low turnout and claims of rigging” and that Kikwete faces mounting opposition demands for electoral reform, and reports that “Kikwete‟s main rival in the elections, Willibrod Slaa of the Chadema party, rejected the election outcome and 1 „Tanzania‟ 2010, in Political Handbook of the World Online Edition, CQ Press Electronic Library, pp.1426- 1435 – Attachment 1. 2US Department of State 2010, Background Note: Tanzania, 13 December http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2843.htm – Accessed 11 March 2011 – Attachment 2. 3 „Country profile: Tanzania‟ 2011, BBC News, 13 January http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/country_profiles/1072330.stm – Accessed 11 March 2011 – Attachment 3. 4 Lugongo, B. 2010, „Year to Be Remembered for Opposition Upsurge‟, AllAfrica Global Media, source: The Citizen, 30 December – Attachment 4. Page 1 of 11 demanded an independent inquiry, electoral reform and a new constitution before the next election in 2015”. The Chadema party had also petitioned against some results of the parliamentary elections, and if court action is successful and by-elections are held, the opposition party stands to make further gains in parliament.5 In an opinion piece in The Citizen in February 2011, Dr Lwaitama, a senior lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam commented that “[t]here is every reason to believe that if there had been free and fair counting of the votes in the last election in 2010, CCM may have had to hand over political power to its political rival on Mainland Tanzania, Chadema”. Lwaitama noted that “CCM has lost much of its left-wing credentials” and Chadema has “warmed itself into the hearts and minds of most disaffected youth in many urban and peri-urban areas”.6 Whilst the political situation in Tanzania in recent decades has been characterised by the dominance of the presidency and parliament by the CCM, the situation differs in Zanzibar. Under the Union Agreement, Zanzibar has extensive autonomy within Tanzania and has its own separate president, legislature and bureaucracy.7 By contrast to the rest of Tanzania, the CUF has come close to defeating the CCM and remains the main opposition party in Zanzibar.8 Following a referendum on 31 July 2010, a power-sharing agreement was reached between the ruling party and the opposition which provided for the opposition to have one of two vice presidents and for ministerial positions to be in proportion to the seats held in Zanzibar‟s House of Representatives. 9 In the elections on 31 October 2010, the CCM candidate for the Zanzibar presidency, Ali Mohamed Shein, won with 50.1% of the vote and the CUF candidate, Seif Sharif Hamad, received 49.1%. Shein selected Hamad as his First Vice President.10 China Radio International has observed that the referendum in July 2010 and the subsequent constitutional amendment in favour of the formation of a government of national unity had been instigated with the aim of preventing election-related violence in Zanzibar. Following the elections, and in line with expectations of greater cooperation between the main parties, “Hamad conceded the results and promised to work with Shein under the Government of National Unity. For his part, Shein said that he will work with Hamad who becomes the first vice-president of Zanzibar under the principles of Zanzibar Constitution amendment for the betterment of Zanzibar people”.11 In January 2011, observers noted that the “CCM and the opposition Civic United Front are sharing power after the archipelago‟s first ever peaceful vote”, ending decades of bitter politics.12 In February 2011, former Zanzibar President and CCM member Amani Abeid 5 Ng‟wanakilala, F. 2011, „FACTBOX – Key political risks to watch in Tanzania 2010‟, Reuters, 4 January – Attachment 5. 6 „CCM‟s Sell-By Date Cannot Be Extended‟ 2011, AllAfrica Global Media, source: The Citizen, 16 February – Attachment 6. 7 „Tanzania‟ 2010, in Political Handbook of the World Online Edition, CQ Press Electronic Library, pp.1426- 1435 – Attachment 1. 8 See, for example, „CCM‟s Sell-By Date Cannot Be Extended‟ 2011, AllAfrica Global Media, source: The Citizen, 16 February – Attachment 6. 9 In the referendum held in July 2010, all 18 constituencies in Pemba voted “yes”, for a coalition, but in Unguja 8 out of 32 constituencies voted “no”: Mgaya, G. 2010, „What an Eventful Year It Has Been! [analysis]‟, AllAfrica Global Media, source: Tanzania Daily News, 29 December – Attachment 7. 10 US Department of State 2010, Background Note: Tanzania, 13 December http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2843.htm – Accessed 11 March 2011 – Attachment 2. 11 „Tanzanian ruling party CCM wins Zanzibar presidential election‟ 2010, China Radio International, 2 November – Attachment 8. 12 Ng‟wanakilala, F. 2011, „FACTBOX – Key political risks to watch in Tanzania 2010‟, Reuters, 4 January – Page 2 of 11 Karume, one of the architects of the national unity government, was reported to have said that the ruling party had adopted a “decent political model” by engaging the leading opposition party in the government and that the 2010 elections were held peacefully because of the new structure. The retired president suggested, nevertheless, that “CCM members should not relax; we need to get prepared and work for a landslide victory in the next elections.” Current Zanzibar President Shein dismissed as misleading the widespread perception that the national unity government had united the CCM and the CUF as a single political party, reportedly stating that the current constitution obliges the CCM and CUF to “form a national unity government to serve all Zanzibaris... but each party is free to organize, conduct its own political and related activities without being hemmed in by the current government structure”13 2. Please provide an analysis of the violence in Zanzibar that has occurred as a result of Presidential elections in Tanzania. The US Department of State has reported that self-governing Zanzibar “has long been the tempestuous exception to mainland Tanzania‟s peaceful politics”, with serious irregularities and sporadic violence having marred every election in Zanzibar since Tanzania was formed in 1964.14 The 2010 elections departed from the pattern of the earlier multiparty elections of 1995, 2000 and 2005 elections, however. An outline of each of these elections follows. 1995 elections Following the elections in October and November of 1995, the first multiparty elections since the United Republic of Tanzania amended its Constitution in 1992, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) continued to control the Union Government, winning 186 of the 232 seats in Parliament, and the CCM presidential candidate won 61.8 percent of the vote. The CCM also won closely contested elections for the Zanzibar President and House of Representatives, although international observers noted serious discrepancies during the vote-counting process and called into question the re-election of CCM incumbent, Dr Salmin Amour Juma, as Zanzibar‟s President.15 Reportedly, the CCM had retained huge advantages over opposition parties in access to resources and the government had “employed tactics to restrict or delay activities of opposition parties during the campaign”. Despite these problems, voting took place “without violence or major disruption, although two people were killed in incidents that may have been campaign related”.16 According to the US Department of State: Observers raised serious doubts about the accuracy of the outcome of the presidential election on Zanzibar. This contest between CCM incumbent Dr. Salim Amour Juma and Seif Sharif Hamad of the opposition CUF was particularly close and contentious. CCM intimidated and harassed the opposition, and did not allow opposition rallies until 2 months prior to elections.
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