Country Advice

Tanzania – TZA38321 – Revolutionary State Party (CCM) – (CUF) – Election violence in – Ongoing risk of violence in Zanzibar 15 March 2011

1. Please provide a background of the major political parties in Tanzania focusing on the party in power and the CUF.

The United Republic of Tanzania was formed in 1964 as a union between mainland and the islands of and Pemba, which together comprise Zanzibar. Since 1977, it has been ruled by the Revolutionary State Party ( or CCM). In 1992 the government legislated for multiparty democracy, and the country is now a presidential democratic republic with a multiparty system. The first multiparty national elections were held in 1995, and concurrent presidential and parliamentary elections have since been held every 5 years. The CCM has won all elections to date. The CUF, founded in 1991, constituted the main opposition party following the 1995 multiparty elections.1

At the most recent elections in October 2010, the CCM‟s Jakaua Kikwete was re-elected President with 61.7% of the vote (as compared to 80% of the vote in 2005) and the CCM secured almost 80% of the seats. Most of the opposition votes went to the party, which displaced the Civic United Front (CUF) for the first time as the official opposition. The opposition leader is Chadema‟s Chairman, Freeman Mbowe. Chadema‟s presidential candidate, Willibrod Slaa, took 27% of the vote, while CUF‟s received 8%.2

Notwithstanding the CCM‟s election success, the BBC reports that Kikwete‟s “political legitimacy has been seen by some to have been somewhat dented in the 2010 elections”, given the decline in his percent of the vote, and a total election turnout of only 42%, down from 72% in 2005. The opposition Chadema party “rejected the outcome, alleging fraud”.3 Observers noted that “experts and politicians cited low turnout of voters during the polling day as the major setback towards the growth for democracy in the country.”4

A Reuters article from January 2011 similarly noted that President Kikwete‟s re-election in October 2010 was “marred by a record low turnout and claims of rigging” and that Kikwete faces mounting opposition demands for electoral reform, and reports that “Kikwete‟s main rival in the elections, Willibrod Slaa of the Chadema party, rejected the election outcome and

1 „Tanzania‟ 2010, in Political Handbook of the World Online Edition, CQ Press Electronic Library, pp.1426- 1435 – Attachment 1. 2US Department of State 2010, Background Note: Tanzania, 13 December http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2843.htm – Accessed 11 March 2011 – Attachment 2. 3 „Country profile: Tanzania‟ 2011, BBC News, 13 January http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/country_profiles/1072330.stm – Accessed 11 March 2011 – Attachment 3. 4 Lugongo, B. 2010, „Year to Be Remembered for Opposition Upsurge‟, AllAfrica Global Media, source: The Citizen, 30 December – Attachment 4.

Page 1 of 11 demanded an independent inquiry, electoral reform and a new constitution before the next election in 2015”. The Chadema party had also petitioned against some results of the parliamentary elections, and if court action is successful and by-elections are held, the opposition party stands to make further gains in parliament.5

In an opinion piece in The Citizen in February 2011, Dr Lwaitama, a senior lecturer at the University of commented that “[t]here is every reason to believe that if there had been free and fair counting of the votes in the last election in 2010, CCM may have had to hand over political power to its political rival on Mainland Tanzania, Chadema”. Lwaitama noted that “CCM has lost much of its left-wing credentials” and Chadema has “warmed itself into the hearts and minds of most disaffected youth in many urban and peri-urban areas”.6

Whilst the political situation in Tanzania in recent decades has been characterised by the dominance of the presidency and parliament by the CCM, the situation differs in Zanzibar. Under the Union Agreement, Zanzibar has extensive autonomy within Tanzania and has its own separate president, legislature and bureaucracy.7 By contrast to the rest of Tanzania, the CUF has come close to defeating the CCM and remains the main opposition party in Zanzibar.8 Following a referendum on 31 July 2010, a power-sharing agreement was reached between the ruling party and the opposition which provided for the opposition to have one of two vice presidents and for ministerial positions to be in proportion to the seats held in Zanzibar‟s House of Representatives. 9 In the elections on 31 October 2010, the CCM candidate for the Zanzibar presidency, , won with 50.1% of the vote and the CUF candidate, , received 49.1%. Shein selected Hamad as his First Vice President.10

China Radio International has observed that the referendum in July 2010 and the subsequent constitutional amendment in favour of the formation of a government of national unity had been instigated with the aim of preventing election-related violence in Zanzibar. Following the elections, and in line with expectations of greater cooperation between the main parties, “Hamad conceded the results and promised to work with Shein under the Government of National Unity. For his part, Shein said that he will work with Hamad who becomes the first vice- under the principles of Zanzibar Constitution amendment for the betterment of Zanzibar people”.11

In January 2011, observers noted that the “CCM and the opposition Civic United Front are sharing power after the archipelago‟s first ever peaceful vote”, ending decades of bitter politics.12 In February 2011, former Zanzibar President and CCM member Amani Abeid

5 Ng‟wanakilala, F. 2011, „FACTBOX – Key political risks to watch in Tanzania 2010‟, Reuters, 4 January – Attachment 5. 6 „CCM‟s Sell-By Date Cannot Be Extended‟ 2011, AllAfrica Global Media, source: The Citizen, 16 February – Attachment 6. 7 „Tanzania‟ 2010, in Political Handbook of the World Online Edition, CQ Press Electronic Library, pp.1426- 1435 – Attachment 1. 8 See, for example, „CCM‟s Sell-By Date Cannot Be Extended‟ 2011, AllAfrica Global Media, source: The Citizen, 16 February – Attachment 6. 9 In the referendum held in July 2010, all 18 constituencies in Pemba voted “yes”, for a coalition, but in Unguja 8 out of 32 constituencies voted “no”: Mgaya, G. 2010, „What an Eventful Year It Has Been! [analysis]‟, AllAfrica Global Media, source: Tanzania , 29 December – Attachment 7. 10 US Department of State 2010, Background Note: Tanzania, 13 December http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2843.htm – Accessed 11 March 2011 – Attachment 2. 11 „Tanzanian ruling party CCM wins Zanzibar presidential election‟ 2010, China Radio International, 2 November – Attachment 8. 12 Ng‟wanakilala, F. 2011, „FACTBOX – Key political risks to watch in Tanzania 2010‟, Reuters, 4 January –

Page 2 of 11 Karume, one of the architects of the national unity government, was reported to have said that the ruling party had adopted a “decent political model” by engaging the leading opposition party in the government and that the 2010 elections were held peacefully because of the new structure. The retired president suggested, nevertheless, that “CCM members should not relax; we need to get prepared and work for a landslide victory in the next elections.” Current Zanzibar President Shein dismissed as misleading the widespread perception that the national unity government had united the CCM and the CUF as a single political party, reportedly stating that the current constitution obliges the CCM and CUF to “form a national unity government to serve all Zanzibaris... but each party is free to organize, conduct its own political and related activities without being hemmed in by the current government structure”13

2. Please provide an analysis of the violence in Zanzibar that has occurred as a result of Presidential .

The US Department of State has reported that self-governing Zanzibar “has long been the tempestuous exception to mainland Tanzania‟s peaceful politics”, with serious irregularities and sporadic violence having marred every election in Zanzibar since Tanzania was formed in 1964.14 The 2010 elections departed from the pattern of the earlier multiparty elections of 1995, 2000 and 2005 elections, however. An outline of each of these elections follows.

1995 elections

Following the elections in October and November of 1995, the first multiparty elections since the United Republic of Tanzania amended its Constitution in 1992, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) continued to control the Union Government, winning 186 of the 232 seats in Parliament, and the CCM presidential candidate won 61.8 percent of the vote. The CCM also won closely contested elections for the Zanzibar President and House of Representatives, although international observers noted serious discrepancies during the vote-counting process and called into question the re-election of CCM incumbent, Dr Juma, as Zanzibar‟s President.15

Reportedly, the CCM had retained huge advantages over opposition parties in access to resources and the government had “employed tactics to restrict or delay activities of opposition parties during the campaign”. Despite these problems, voting took place “without violence or major disruption, although two people were killed in incidents that may have been campaign related”.16 According to the US Department of State:

Observers raised serious doubts about the accuracy of the outcome of the presidential election on Zanzibar. This contest between CCM incumbent Dr. Salim Amour Juma and Seif Sharif Hamad of the opposition CUF was particularly close and contentious. CCM intimidated and harassed the opposition, and did not allow opposition rallies until 2 months prior to elections. Government-owned radio and television on Zanzibar were biased in favor of CCM... Also,

Attachment 5. 13 Tarimo, J. 2011, „Zanzibar leader says CUF, CCM remain separate parties under unity government‟, BBC Monitoring Africa, source: The Guardian, 27 February – Attachment 9. 14 US Department of State 2010, Background Note: Tanzania, 13 December http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2843.htm – Accessed 11 March 2011 – Attachment 2. 15 US Department of State 1996, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 1995 – Tanzania, March, Introduction – Attachment 10. 16 US Department of State 1996, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 1995 – Tanzania, March, Section 3 – Attachment 10.

Page 3 of 11 voter registration was limited to individuals who had maintained the same residence for 5 years, which disenfranchised many voters. CUF members were also detained by police when they attempted to campaign in rural areas...

After efforts by the international community to reconcile discrepancies in the vote counting, observers concluded that the official results may have been inaccurate. Although these discrepancies were brought to the attention of Union President Mwinyi, he took no action before Dr. Amour was inaugurated as President of Zanzibar for a new 5-year term.

Following the announcement of the CCM victory, there were credible reports that government security forces and CCM gangs harassed and intimidated CUF members on both of the two main Zanzibar islands, Pemba and Ugunja. Because CUF won all 20 Zanzibar seats in Pemba, Pembans living on Ugunja were regarded as CUF supporters and as a result were harassed. CUF members accused police of detaining dozens of its members including several local leaders. Some CUF supporters on Ugunja felt threatened and reportedly moved their families to Pemba or the mainland.17

In the period between the 1995 and 2000 elections, police in Zanzibar, and particularly on the island of Pemba, regularly detained, arrested or harassed CUF members and suspected supporters. In 1997 and 1998, police arrested 18 CUF officials, including members of parliament, and charged them with treason for attempting to overthrow the Zanzibar Government. In January 2000, the Zanzibar High Court began trial proceedings against the CUF officials who had been held without bail since their arrests, however, following the October elections, the case was dismissed on instructions from incoming President Karume and the defendants were released.18

2000 elections

International observers concluded that the October 2000 elections on the mainland were free and fair and conducted peacefully. The incumbent President was re-elected with 71 percent of the vote, and the ruling CCM party made significant gains in its majority in Parliament. The presidential and parliamentary elections in Zanzibar, however, were “marred by irregularities, voter intimidation, and politically-motivated violence”. In 16 constituencies, voting was cancelled and subsequently held on 5 November, although the CUF “boycotted the revotes in protest.” 19 The CUF refused to recognise the election results in Zanzibar and CUF elected representatives boycotted the union and Zanzibar parliaments.20

In Zanzibar, the police harassed and intimidated members and supporters of the political opposition before and after the October elections. Police use of torture, notably on the island of Pemba, was reported, but no action was taken by either the Zanzibar or the Union Government against those responsible for the abuses.21

17 US Department of State 1996, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 1995 – Tanzania, March, Section 3 – Attachment 10. 18 US Department of State 2001, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2000 – Tanzania, February, Section 3 – Attachment 11. 19 US Department of State 2001, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2000 – Tanzania, February, Introduction – Attachment 11. 20 US Department of State 2001, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2000 – Tanzania, February, Section 3 – Attachment 11. 21 US Department of State 2001, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2000 – Tanzania, February, Section 1c – Attachment 11.

Page 4 of 11 The US Department of State noted incidents reported to have taken place in Zanzibar in relation to the election on 29 October 2000, including the following:

 On 11 October, police shot and injured six CUF supporters at a CUF-sponsored election rally at a party office in Zanzibar, and the police had not investigated the incident nor punished the responsible officers by year‟s end.  On 29 October, police injured several persons whom they arrested at a CUF office in Pemba.  On 30 October, police used excessive force and beat demonstrators and bystanders during rallies and demonstrations in Stone Town in Zanzibar, resulting in a number of injuries and arrests. Police used tear gas, rubber bullets, and live ammunition against CUF opposition activists in Zanzibar, injuring six persons.  There also were reports that police beat with truncheons and rifle butts at least 15 persons whom they had forcibly removed from shops.  Police reportedly beat persons for violating a 7 p.m. curfew imposed in Wete, Pemba.  On November 1, a group of CCM members reportedly beat several CUF officials in Stone Town in Zanzibar as police watched without intervening.  There were reports of beatings and assault by police officers and army units in areas around roadblocks in Pemba.  During repeat elections in some constituencies on 5 November, police beat and reportedly tortured opposition officials in Zanzibar.22

There were reports that at least 150 CUF members were arrested in the aftermath of the 2000 elections, all of whom were released after the new Zanzibar President, Amani Karume, took office. There were numerous arrests on the island of Pemba, and police on the mainland reportedly arrested Pembans without charge and forcibly returned them to Pemba under police custody.23

The most egregious violence related to the 2000 elections, however, took place in Zanzibar in January 2001 when political demonstrations called to protest irregularities in the elections and to call for constitutional reform were violently suppressed by the security forces – primarily the police, aided by the coastguard and the army. The CUF had called for countrywide protests to take place on 27 January 2001 and these were broadly supported by other opposition parties and were generally peaceful, except in Zanzibar where the response of the authorities indicated a concerted effort to target the CUF where it had most widespread support. According to Human Rights Watch, the security forces “opened fire and assaulted thousands of unarmed demonstrators and others. In the following days, the security forces, joined by ruling party officials and militia, went on a rampage, indiscriminately arresting, beating, and sexually abusing island residents. Human Rights Watch estimates that at least thirty-five people were killed, and over 600 injured. Some two thousand Zanzibaris fled to

22 US Department of State 2001, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2000 – Tanzania, February, Section 1c – Attachment 11. 23 US Department of State 2001, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2000 – Tanzania, February, Section 1d – Attachment 11.

Page 5 of 11 nearby Kenya.” Demonstrators in the towns of Wete, Micheweni, and Chake Chake, and the capital, Zanzibar Town on Unguja Island, were amongst those targeted.24

2005 elections

In 2005, Tanzania‟s presidential and legislative elections took place on 14 December, after being postponed from 30 October due to the death of a vice-presidential candidate. The CCM‟s was elected as president of the union and the ruling CCM party made further gains in the National Assembly.25 According to the US Department of State, “[o]bservers considered the union elections to be freer and fairer than previous elections, despite irregularities and politically motivated violence, mostly on Zanzibar”.26 The US Department of State further reported that:

Prior to the Zanzabari [sic] elections, authorities on Zanzibar denied opposition parties access to the Donge constituency of Unguja island‟s Kaskazini region, as well as to Unguja‟s Ukuu constituency of Kusini region. In October the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) rejected a CUF request to hold a campaign meeting in Donge constituency. During the confrontation in Mahonda that resulted from this denial, police fired tear gas and live bullets at CUF supporters, seriously injuring five persons.27

Elections for the Zanzibar president and House of Representatives took place on 30 October, as originally scheduled. The CCM candidate and incumbent president, Amani Karume, won the Zanzibari presidency with 53 percent of the vote and the CUF presidential candidate, Seif Sharif Hamad, won 46 percent of the vote. In Zanzibar‟s 50-seat House of Representatives, the CCM won 30 seats while the CUF won 19. International observers of the Zanzibari elections noted improvements in the election process compared to previous years, however “some international observers called for an independent investigation, citing serious irregularities, including the failure of the ZEC to release the permanent voters register (PVR) until the day before the polling day; inaccuracies in the PVR; incidents of underage and multiple voting; incidents of registered voters being turned away from the polls; and the cancellation of election results for the Dole voting district due to a shortage of ballot papers”. CUF leaders also called for an investigation, claiming there had been intimidation, fraud, and mismanagement at the polls.28

The US Department of State reports that:

In Zanzibar both the Zanzabari [sic] and the national elections were marred by violence. At some registration sites, there were violent confrontations between paramilitary forces and citizens, one of which resulted in death... In addition, during the December 14 union elections, approximately 20 persons were injured, some seriously, in violence in Zanzibar. There also were instances of violence near polling centers between locally registered voters and non- locals who were allegedly trying to cast votes where they were not registered to vote. For

24 Human Rights Watch 2002, Tanzania: “The Bullets Were Raining” – The January 2001 Attack on Peaceful Demonstrators in Zanzibar, April, Section I – Attachment 12. 25 US Department of State 2006, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2005 – Tanzania, March, Section 3 – Attachment 13. 26 US Department of State 2006, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2005 – Tanzania, March, Introduction – Attachment 13. 27 US Department of State 2006, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2005 – Tanzania, March, Section 2b – Attachment 13. 28 US Department of State 2006, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2005 – Tanzania, March, Section 3 – Attachment 13.

Page 6 of 11 example a member of the Janjaweed, an allegedly progovernment gang, stabbed a man in Stone Town who was trying to prevent voting and election interference by non-locals.

After polling day for union elections, Zanzibar police accused supporters of the CUF of instigating the violence and arrested at least 46 individuals.29

2010 elections

By contrast to previous elections, the presidential and legislative elections on 31 October 2010 reportedly “passed off without any major incidents”.30 The generally peaceful elections in Zanzibar were seen to be a result of the power-sharing agreement that was the outcome of the July 2010 referendum in Zanzibar.31

Immediately prior to the elections, campaign rallies held by the CCM and CUF in Unguja Island reportedly were calm “after adversary CCM and CUF leaders promised co-operation to stop acts of violence that have featured in past elections in the Isles”.32 Although some residents had feared a resurgence of violence,33 in the first election since the two main parties agreed to share power on the islands, “[v]oting passed off peacefully”.34

The CCM won 26 seats and the CUF won 22 seats in the House of Representatives, including all seats on Pemba Islands.35 The CCM‟s Dr Ali Mohamed Shein became the first Zanzibar President from Pemba since the formation of Tanzania. Reports indicated that the Pemba and other CUF strongholds “were peaceful as members and fans of CCM and CUF were engaged in joint celebrations”.36

A report by the Electoral Institute for the Sustainability of Democracy in Africa (EISA), released on 2 November, 2010 included the following observations of the elections in Zanzibar:

The Mission noted that there has been a significant improvement in levels of political tolerance since the last elections held in Zanzibar in 2005. The agreement between President Amane , leader of Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) in Zanzibar and Seif Sharif Hamad, leader of Civic United Front (CUF) contributed significantly to this observable change in political tolerance. The mission noted that beyond the agreement reached, the people of Zanzibar demonstrated a commitment to peaceful, orderly political activities and elections. This was reflected in the manner in which the political campaign and polling process took place which was without major incidences of political violence and intimidation. ...

29 US Department of State 2006, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2005 – Tanzania, March Section 3 – Attachment 13. 30 Selassie, G. 2010, „Election 2010: Ruling Party Wins Zanzibar Presidency, Opposition Parties Gain in Tanzania‟, IHS Global Insight, 2 November – Attachment 14. 31 US Department of State 2010, Background Note: Tanzania, 13 December http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2843.htm – Accessed 11 March 2011 – Attachment 2. 32 Mushi, D. 2010, „Zanzibaris Go to Polls Relaxed‟, AllAfrica Global Media, source: Tanzania Daily News, 31 October – Attachment 15. 33 Kulekana, J. 2010, „Tanzanians vote as ruling party predicts landslide win‟, Agence France Presse, 1 November – Attachment 16. 34 „Tanzanians protest at delay announcing election results‟ 2010, BBC, 1 November – Attachment 17. 35 „House of Reps Expected to Convene Tuesday‟ 2010, AllAfrica Global Media, source: Tanzania Daily News, 5 November – Attachment 18. 36 Yusuf, I. 2010, „Nation Upbeat Ahead of Shein‟s Swearing-in‟, AllAfrica Global Media, source: Tanzania Daily News, 4 November – Attachment 19.

Page 7 of 11 Previous elections in Zanzibar have taken place against a background of incidences of politically motivated violence and intimidation. The mission noted with satisfaction that the present elections have not been marred by major acts of violence and political intimidation. ... The mission noted with satisfaction a strong participation of citizens in the elections in Zanzibar. The absence of violence and intimidation has contributed to the electorate being able to more freely exercise their right to vote. This was evidenced by a strong voter turnout in all constituencies and polling centres at which EISA observers were in attendance. ... The counting of ballot papers was conducted in an open manner in the presence of party agents and international observers who witnessed the counting process and verified the results at the polling stations where the votes were cast.37

3. Please provide an analysis of the violence in Zanzibar that is likely to occur as a result of Presidential elections in Tanzania.

Current indications are that election-related violence in Zanzibar is less likely to recur following constitutional changes in Zanzibar that provide for a “government of national unity”, the orderly and peaceable elections in October 2010, and the subsequent formation of a coalition government.

Under the accord between the CCM and the CUF, the CCM presidential candidate Ali Mohamed Shein became President and the CUF‟s Seif Sharif Hamad took the position of First Vice President. 38 Immediately following the October 2010 elections, Hamad reportedly congratulated Shein, and stated his belief that Shein “will have wise leadership and unify our country”. By contrast, Hamad had refused to accept the outcome and had made allegations of irregularities following the elections of 1995, 2000 and 2005. This “new-found political consensus between the CCM and the CUF” is the main change influencing the outlook for Zanzibar.39

According to IHS Global Insight:

Shein has become the seventh president in Zanzibar‟s independent history and the first from Pemba. The smaller of the two islets that make up Zanzibar, Pemba is a traditional stronghold of the CUF, with the CCM‟s support in Zanzibar historically limited to Unguja. His election, coupled with the recent power-sharing deal signed between the CCM and the CUF, is likely to help ease the long-standing tension between the inhabitants of the archipelago.40

In February 2011, The Citizen reported that, while it may be too early to give a conclusive assessment of the new government arrangement, most commentators see the relations between the CCM and CUF in Zanzibar to be “harmonious”:

37 „EISA observer mission to the 2010 Zanzibar elections‟ 2010, Electoral Institute for the Sustainability of Democracy in Africa (EISA), 2 November – Attachment 20. 38 Lugongo, B. and Said, S. 2011, „100 Days of GNU in Zanzibar On Spot‟, AllAfrica Global Media, source: The Citizen, 21 February – Attachment 21. 39 Selassie, G. 2010, „Election 2010: Ruling Party Wins Zanzibar Presidency, Opposition Parties Gain in Tanzania‟, IHS Global Insight, 2 November – Attachment 14. 40 Selassie, G. 2010, „Election 2010: Ruling Party Wins Zanzibar Presidency, Opposition Parties Gain in Tanzania‟, IHS Global Insight, 2 November – Attachment 14.

Page 8 of 11 With over 100 days now gone since the opening of the new political chapter, most commentators on both parts of the Union say that despite the inevitable challenges, implementation of the GNU has so far been successful. Those who spoke to The Citizen on Sunday for this report concurred that the political unity was unprecedented in Zanzibar‟s recent history, and recommended it should be cherished and safeguarded at any cost.

... Political scientist of the Dar es Salaam University, says the smooth formation of a cabinet that includes ministers from both CCM and CUF in Zanzibar is a testimony of the success of the new dispensation. ... According to Mr Ally, the peaceful campaigns were another testimony of the goodwill of both parties, and bore the signs for a bright future ahead.

However, he says the major challenge for the GNU is how to translate the sharing of political power into a way of solving fundamental problems of the Zanzibaris. Of foremost importance, he noted, was to pull the majority of the people from abject poverty. ... Another supporter of GNU, Mr Ismail Jussa of CUF, who is the party‟s Representative of Mji Mkongwe constituency, says since the accord Zanzibar has experienced calmness and tranquillity unparalleled in recent years. To him, nothing is more important than that. He says that not only the feuding between the rival parties is now history, but also for the first time in recent history, the government and political leaders are all in good terms.

He noted the debates in the House of Representatives were being conducted harmoniously on the basis of mutual understanding and respect, regardless of party affiliations or ideological inclinations. ... Prof Mwesiga Baregu, a political analyst and lecturer at Saint Augustine University (SAUT), also lauded what has so far been achieved in Zanzibar, singling out peace and harmony as the most important ones under the GNU.41

4. Please provide an analysis of the threat such violence would pose to a person who is a supporter of the CUF and a resident of Zanzibar.

As noted in response to the previous question, current indications are that election-related violence in Zanzibar is less likely to recur in the future. In the current political climate in Zanzibar, a supporter of the CUF is unlikely to be at risk of adverse attention from the authorities or from supporters of the opposition party.

5. Please refer to any further information that is relevant to whether or not an ordinary member of the CUF living in Zanzibar would face persecution on the basis of his political opinion or any other Convention ground.

No further relevant information was found on whether a member of the CUF in Zanzibar would face harm on the basis of his political opinion or other Convention ground.

41 Lugongo, B. and Said, S. 2011, „100 Days of GNU in Zanzibar On Spot‟, AllAfrica Global Media, source: The Citizen, 21 February – Attachment 21.

Page 9 of 11 Attachments

1. „Tanzania‟ 2010, in Political Handbook of the World Online Edition, CQ Press Electronic Library, pp.1426-1435. 2. US Department of State 2010, Background Note: Tanzania, 13 December http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2843.htm – Accessed 11 March 2011.

3. „Country profile: Tanzania‟ 2011, BBC News, 13 January http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/country_profiles/1072330.stm – Accessed 11 March 2011.

4. Lugongo, B. 2010, „Year to Be Remembered for Opposition Upsurge‟, AllAfrica Global Media, source: The Citizen, 30 December. (FACTIVA)

5. Ng‟wanakilala, F. 2011, „FACTBOX – Key political risks to watch in Tanzania 2010‟, Reuters, 4 January. (FACTIVA)

6. „CCM‟s Sell-By Date Cannot Be Extended‟ 2011, AllAfrica Global Media, source: The Citizen, 16 February. (FACTIVA)

7. Mgaya, G. 2010, „What an Eventful Year It Has Been! [analysis]‟, AllAfrica Global Media, source: Tanzania Daily News, 29 December. (FACTIVA)

8. „Tanzanian ruling party CCM wins Zanzibar presidential election‟ 2010, China Radio International, 2 November. (CISNET Tanzania CX255133)

9. Tarimo, J. 2011, „Zanzibar leader says CUF, CCM remain separate parties under unity government‟, BBC Monitoring Africa, source: The Guardian, 27 February. (FACTIVA)

10. US Department of State 1996, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 1995 – Tanzania, March.

11. US Department of State 2001, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2000 – Tanzania, February.

12. Human Rights Watch 2002, Tanzania: “The Bullets Were Raining” – The January 2001 Attack on Peaceful Demonstrators in Zanzibar, April.

13. US Department of State 2006, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2005 – Tanzania, March.

14. Selassie, G. 2010, „Election 2010: Ruling Party Wins Zanzibar Presidency, Opposition Parties Gain in Tanzania‟, IHS Global Insight, 2 November. (FACTIVA)

15. Mushi, D. 2010, „Zanzibaris Go to Polls Relaxed‟, AllAfrica Global Media, source: Tanzania Daily News, 31 October. (FACTIVA)

16. Kulekana, J. 2010, „Tanzanians vote as ruling party predicts landslide win‟, Agence France Presse, 1 November. (FACTIVA)

17. „Tanzanians protest at delay announcing election results‟ 2010, BBC, 1 November. (CISNET Tanzania CX255117)

Page 10 of 11

18. „House of Reps Expected to Convene Tuesday‟ 2010, AllAfrica Global Media, source: Tanzania Daily News, 5 November. (FACTIVA)

19. Yusuf, I. 2010, „Nation Upbeat Ahead of Shein‟s Swearing-in‟, AllAfrica Global Media, source: Tanzania Daily News, 4 November. (FACTIVA)

20. „EISA observer mission to the 2010 Zanzibar elections‟ 2010, Electoral Institute for the Sustainability of Democracy in Africa (EISA), 2 November. (CISNET Tanzania CX255132)

21. Lugongo, B. and Said, S. 2011, „100 Days of GNU in Zanzibar On Spot‟, AllAfrica Global Media, source: The Citizen, 21 February. (FACTIVA)

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