2017 Provisional Population Projections for Virginia
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2017 Provisional Population Projections for Virginia Input/Challenges from Data Users and Responses from the Demographics Research Group March 3, 2017 Table of Contents Department of Social Services ................................................................................. 1-3 Input submitted by the state agency and response from the Demographics Research Group City of Virginia Beach ................................................................................................ 4-7 Input and attachment submitted by the City and response from the Demographics Research Group Fairfax County ........................................................................................................... 8-21 Input and attachments submitted by the County and response from the Demographics Research Group City of Hampton .................................................................................................... 22-25 Challenge letter and accompanying documents submitted by the City and response from the Demographics Research Group County of Arlington .............................................................................................. 26-46 Challenge letter and accompanying documents submitted by the County and response from the Demographics Research Group City of Danville ........................................................................................................ 47-51 Challenge letter submitted by the City and response from the Demographics Research Group City of Alexandria .................................................................................................. 52-56 Challenge letter submitted by the City and response from the Demographics Research Group Prince William County ......................................................................................... 57-66 Challenge letter, accompanying documents, and corrected documents submitted by the County and response from the Demographics Research Group Department of Social Services Input submitted by the state agency and response from the Demographics Research Group From: "Jennings, Gail (VDSS)" <[email protected]> Date: Friday, February 10, 2017 at 9:31 AM To: "Gunter, Meredith Strohm (msg4g)" <[email protected]> Cc: "Witherspoon, Ida (VDSS)" <[email protected]>, "Price, Jeff (VDSS)" <[email protected]> Subject: RE: Provisional Population Projections Now Open for Review and Comment Meredith, I have no questions or concerns about your methodology. The input comments from the localities were informative, and you provided a reasonable response to their concerns and questions. The attached “Understanding Population Projections”, particularly the last paragraph regarding error around the estimates, is very helpful to readers. Just a suggestion: It may be helpful to users to also see your data inputs ‐‐ the 2000 Census total, 2010 Census total and the 2015 estimate ‐‐ in columns to the left of your 2020‐2040 projections in the output (Excel or PDF) tables. I’m looking forward to getting the projections by race/ethnicity, 5‐year age group, and sex. When will these projections be released? Thank you for the work that your organization put into this! ‐‐Gail Jennings Gail C. Jennings, Ph.D. Research Associate Sr., Office of Research and Planning Virginia Department of Social Services 801 East Main Street, Richmond VA 23219‐2901 (804) 726‐7490 (PHONE); (804) 726‐7906 (FAX)www.dss.virginia.gov From: "Gunter, Meredith Strohm (msg4g)" <[email protected]> Date: Friday, February 10, 2017 at 11:10 AM To: "Jennings, Gail (VDSS)" <[email protected]> Cc: "Witherspoon, Ida (VDSS)" <[email protected]>, "Price, Jeff (VDSS)" <[email protected]> Subject: Re: Provisional Population Projections Now Open for Review and Comment Gail, How nice to hear from you – and how kind of you to respond. We appreciate your suggestion regarding the inclusion of input data. We are working on that right now, and should have said data on the website today. Assuming we are able to finalize these control total projections by the end of March (including time to secure approval of DPB), we should be in a position to release the detailed projections by the end of June. Let us know if we can help you in any way. Warm regards, Meredith Meredith Gunter Interim Director [email protected] 434.982.5585 City of Virginia Beach Input and attachment submitted by the City and response from the Demographics Research Group From: Sen, Shonel (ss4xr) Sent: Monday, February 13, 2017 3:17 PM To: Muldoon, Amy J. (ajm6u) Subject: Followup on VA Beach Paul Harris Attachments: Reconciling WCC Pop Projections.xlsx Follow up on VA Beach with Paul Harris – 13 Feb 2017 phone conversation He asked if our methodology document mentioned the top‐down approach with the raking of the state‐control total in November/December 2016version, because he apparently missed it. I confirmed that the document is essentially the same, except the updates being dropping the references and the Hamilton Perry mention in the introduction (which will be relevant in the later stages). He commented on the numbers being different from his Compound annual growth rates (in attached excel sheet) but understood our consistent methodology. I specifically asked if he had alternative suggestions, and he declined, saying he just wanted to discuss the percentage change numbers. From: Paul Harris [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Friday, February 10, 2017 11:06 AM To: Sen, Shonel (ss4xr) <[email protected]> Subject: RE: Hi...Few Questions about Pop Projections... Hi Shonel, great…how about 2‐2:30; I wont need that long; by the way, did the methodology change from the original…the state control part? I don’t seem to remember that component, but have my original material in the office, and viewed again on line….could be faulty memory on my part….I mainly thought, for the 2030 and 2040, that exponential growth rate from 2000‐2015 was applied to the 2020 estimates to obtain 2030 and so forth for 2040. I obviously may be completely confused. I have attached a spreadsheet that shows population projections based on compound annual growth rates, no exponential—but these produce nearly the same results, and the implied compound annual growth rates from the WCC projections. I think it is easy to follow, but we can discuss on Monday…and so much appreciate it….what I am seeking to understand is the declining growth rate from 2020‐2030 and 2030‐2040…I understand as a pop base becomes larger, it would seem reasonable for the methodology (statistical, non‐case study) to assume a declining rate of growth….just need to understand….thanks so much, Shonel. Paul R. Harris Management and Budget Analyst Department of Budget and Management Services City of Virginia Beach Municipal Center, Building 1, Room 334 2401 Courthouse Drive Virginia Beach, VA 23456 Phone (direct): 757‐385‐8500 Phone (office): 757‐385‐8234 Fax: 757‐385‐1857 Email: [email protected] From: Sen, Shonel (ss4xr) [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Friday, February 10, 2017 10:47 AM To: Paul Harris <[email protected]> Subject: RE: Hi...Few Questions about Pop Projections... Good morning Paul I did get your voicemail, and will be glad to discuss the numbers with you. I have a couple of 30‐min windows on Monday between 11‐11.30 am or 2‐2.30 pm. Please let me know which one of these works better for you. Sincerely, Shonel -- Shonel Sen, Ph.D. Research and Policy Analyst Demographics Research Group | Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service | University of Virginia 2400 Old Ivy Rd, Charlottesville, VA | 434.982.5861 | [email protected] From: Paul Harris [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Thursday, February 09, 2017 4:11 PM To: Sen, Shonel (ss4xr) <[email protected]> Subject: RE: Hi...Few Questions about Pop Projections... Hi Shonel, hope have been doing well….now that you have released the projections, I was hoping I could chat with you; I am off tomorrow and Monday, but can try to call you; I do have plans parts of both days, but hopefully we can connect…thanks! City of Virginia Beach Population Estimates and Projections 2000 425,257 2010 437,994 0.30% 2011 441,246 0.74% 2012 447,489 1.41% 2013 449,628 0.48% 2014 451,672 0.45% 2015 453,500 0.40% Intevals (Years) for Computing Compound Annual Growth Rates Years April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2015 4/1/2000 7/1/2015 15.25753 April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2015 4/1/2010 7/1/2015 5.252055 July 1, 2015 to April 1, 2020 7/1/2010 4/1/2015 4.753425 Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2015 0.4223% April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2015 0.6646% Population Projections Based on CAGR WCC Population Projections (with calculated CAGRs) 2020 467,996 CAGR from 10‐15 467,134 0.6251% CAGR from 2015 to 2020 2030 488,141 CAGR from 00‐15 482,578 0.3258% CAGR from 2020 to 2030 2040 509,153 CAGR from 00‐16 491,054 0.1743% CAGR from 2030 to 2040 Fairfax County Input and attachments submitted by the County and response from the Demographics Research Group From: "Khaja, Fatima" <[email protected]> Date: Tuesday, February 14, 2017 at 4:40 PM To: "[email protected]" <[email protected]> Subject: Fairfax County Estimates and Projections Dear Dr. Cai, Thank you for giving us the opportunity to review and comment on your most recent projections. Your draft projections for Fairfax County are very close to our in‐house projections. Our most recent population forecast are the following: 2020 1,156,852 2030 1,256,916 2040 1,355,736 All