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Norwegian Caveats in Afghanistan 2001 - 2008

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Norwegian Caveats in Afghanistan 2001 - 2008 Otto Trønnes Mapping and explaining Norwegian caveats in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2008 Master’s thesis in Political Science Trondheim, spring 2012 Faculty of social sciences and technology management Department of sociology and political science July 2012 1 Preface I started working academically with caveats in 2006. Since then I have written several different term papers, and was to finish this final thesis in 2009. This obviously did not happen, and it took a few more years before I had enough time to finish it. Throughout the period there were many people who have helped med and deserve to be mentioned and thanked for their support. First and foremost – Gunnar Fermann for giving very good advice targeting the weakest sides of the thesis. Steve Saideman for being an interesting partner in electronic discussions. Per Marius Frost-Nielsen has contributed much through discussions and a good perspective on the Norwegian angles. Trude Midtgård was an invaluable support at various points. In addition – I would like to thank Ida for support and encouragement, and my classmates in class 17 for all the fun and social gatherings. Thank you for keeping my head up! Otto Trønnes Trondheim, 2012-07-11 2 Table of Contents PREFACE ..................................................................................................................................................................... 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................................... 3 TABLES AND FIGURES .................................................................................................................................................. 5 ABBREVIATIONS .......................................................................................................................................................... 6 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................................... 7 1.1. DEFINING THE PROJECT .................................................................................................................................................. 8 1.2. THE STRUCTURE OF THE THESIS ....................................................................................................................................... 9 1.3. METHODS FOR COLLECTING DATA .................................................................................................................................. 10 1.3.1. The lack of interviews .................................................................................................................................... 12 1.3.2. Methodological problems during data collection .......................................................................................... 12 1.4. METHODS FOR ANALYSING DATA .................................................................................................................................... 14 1.4.1. Case studies ................................................................................................................................................... 14 1.4.2. The comparative method .............................................................................................................................. 15 1.4.3. Cross-tabulations and csQCA ........................................................................................................................ 16 1.4.4. Reliability and validity ................................................................................................................................... 17 2. DEFINING CAVEATS – AS CONCEPT AND PHENOMENON ........................................................................................19 2.1. PLANNING THE MISSION IN NATO ................................................................................................................................. 20 2.1.1. Rules of Engagement ..................................................................................................................................... 21 2.2. RED CARD HOLDERS ................................................................................................................................................... 23 2.3. STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES ............................................................................................................................. 24 2.4. IN EXTREMIS ............................................................................................................................................................. 24 2.5. CAVEATS ................................................................................................................................................................... 25 2.6. CLASSIFICATION OF CAVEATS ......................................................................................................................................... 27 2.6.1. Public information ......................................................................................................................................... 28 2.6.2. Information to NATO ..................................................................................................................................... 28 2.6.3. Caveat severity .............................................................................................................................................. 28 2.6.4. Caveat types .................................................................................................................................................. 29 2.6.5. Impact of caveat ............................................................................................................................................ 30 2.6.6. Classification overview .................................................................................................................................. 31 3. THEORETICAL APPROACHES EXPLAINING THE USE OF CAVEATS .............................................................................33 3.1. ANALYSING FOREIGN POLICY – DECISIONS WITHIN THE REALM OF “HIGH POLITICS” .................................................................. 33 3.2. OUTSIDE – IN: THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT .................................................................................................................. 36 3.2.1. Realism – gaining power and avoiding failure .............................................................................................. 37 3.2.2. Neo-liberal institutionalism – organisations facilitating cooperation ........................................................... 40 3.3. INSIDE – OUT I: THE INTERNAL ENVIRONMENT OF THE STATE ............................................................................................... 41 3.3.1. Group interests in liberalism .......................................................................................................................... 41 3.3.2. Constructivism – further exploration of identity ............................................................................................ 42 3.3.3. Government by coalition ............................................................................................................................... 44 3.4. INSIDE – OUT II: PROPERTIES OF THE GOVERNING BODIES .................................................................................................. 46 3.4.1. Governmental politics model ......................................................................................................................... 47 3.4.2. Principal-agent theory and civil-military theory ............................................................................................ 48 3.5. SUMMARY OF HYPOTHESES .......................................................................................................................................... 50 4. SETTING THE STAGE: A BACKGROUND ON NORWAY AND ISAF ...............................................................................52 4.1. BACKGROUND – NORWAY'S SECURITY CHALLENGES ........................................................................................................... 52 4.2. THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE ........................................................................................................................................... 54 4.3. THE CABINETS. ........................................................................................................................................................... 55 4.3.1. The parties of the Bondevik II-cabinet ........................................................................................................... 55 4.3.2. The parties of the Stoltenberg II-cabinet. ...................................................................................................... 57 4.3.3. Other parties ................................................................................................................................................. 58 3 4.4. THE POLITICAL-MILITARY SYSTEM OF NORWAY .................................................................................................................. 59 4.4.1. The political-military process of sending forces to a NATO-mission .............................................................. 60 4.5. NATO, ISAF AND OEF ..............................................................................................................................................
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