Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive
Theses and Dissertations Compilations of Thesis Abstracts, from 2005
2010-06 Compilation of thesis abstracts, June 2010
http://hdl.handle.net/10945/27521
Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, California 93943–5138
NPS-04-10-006
Compilation of
Thesis Abstracts
June 2010
Office of the Vice President and Dean of Research Naval Postgraduate School
PREFACE
This publication contains abstracts of unrestricted or unclassified theses submitted for the degrees doctor of philosophy, master of business administration, master of science, and master of arts for the June 2010 graduation.
This compilation of abstracts of theses is published in order that those interested in the fields represented may have an opportunity to become acquainted with the nature and substance of the student research that has been undertaken. Copies of theses are available for those wishing more detailed information. The procedure for obtaining copies is outlined on the last page of this volume.
For additional information on programs, or for a catalog, from the Naval Postgraduate School, contact the director of admissions.
Director of Admissions Code 01B3 Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943–5100 Phone: (831) 656–3093 Fax: (831) 656–3093 The World Wide Web edition of the school’s catalog is at: http://www.nps.edu/Admissions/index.html
For further information about student and faculty research at the school, contact the associate provost and dean of research.
Vice President and Dean of Research Code 09 Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943–5138 Phone: (831) 656–2099 Fax: (831) 656–2038 Email: [email protected]
The Compilation of Theses Abstracts (unrestricted) can be found online at http://www.nps.edu/Research/MoreThesisAbst.html .
Summary of Research, an annual compilation of research projects and publications, is also available online, at http://www.nps.edu/Research/SummaryRes.html.
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INTRODUCTION
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Mission The Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) was established to serve the advanced educational needs of the Navy. The broad responsibility of the school is reflected in its stated mission:
Increase the combat effectiveness of U.S. and allied armed forces and enhance the security of the United States of America through advanced education and research programs focused on the technical, analytical, and managerial tools needed to confront defense–related challenges of the future.
To fulfill its mission, the Naval Postgraduate School strives to sustain excellence in the quality of its instructional programs, to be responsive to technological change and innovation in the Navy, and to prepare officers to introduce and utilize future technologies. The research program at NPS exists to support the primary mission of graduate education. Research at NPS: • maintains upper–division course content and programs at cutting edge; • challenges students with creative problem solving experiences on DoD–relevant issues; • advances DoN/DoD technology; • solves warfare problems; and • attracts and retains quality faculty.
Academic Programs To meet its educational requirements, the Navy has developed a unique academic institution at the Naval Postgraduate School through the use of specially tailored academic programs, and a distinctive organization tying academic disciplines to naval and joint warfighting applications. The Naval Postgraduate School has aligned its education and supporting research programs to achieve three major goals: 1) academic programs that are nationally recognized and support the current and future operations of the Navy and Marine Corps, our sister services, and our allies; 2) institutes that focus on the integration of teaching and research in direct support of the four pillars of Joint Visions 2010 and 2020 and their enabling technologies; and, 3) executive and continuing education programs that support continuous intellectual innovation and growth throughout an officer’s career.
iii INTRODUCTION
Programs of graduate studies at NPS are grouped as follows:
Graduate School of Operational and Information Sciences • Computer Science • Joint C4I Systems • Computer Technology • Joint Information Operations • Electronic Warfare Systems • Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation • Human Systems Integration • Operations Analysis • Information Sciences • Operational Logistics, Joint • Information Systems and Operations • Software Engineering • Information Systems and Technology • Special Operations and Irregular Warfare • Information Warfare • Systems Analysis
Graduate School of Engineering and Applied Sciences • Applied Mathematics • Reactors–Mechanical Engineering/Electrical • Combat Systems Science and Technology Engineering • Electronic Systems Engineering • Space Systems Engineering • Meteorology • Space Systems Operations • Meteorology and Oceanography • Systems Engineering • Naval/Mechanical Engineering • Systems Engineering Management • Oceanography • Undersea Warfare • Operational Oceanography • Underwater Acoustic Systems
Graduate School of Business and Public Policy • Acquisition and Contract Management • Material Logistics Support • Contract Management • Manpower Systems Analysis • Defense Business Management • Program Management • Defense Systems Analysis • Resource Planning and Management for • Defense Systems Management, International International Defense • Executive Management • Supply Chain Management • Executive Master of Business Administration • Systems Acquisition Management • Financial Management • Transportation Management • Information Systems Management
School of International Graduate Studies • Civil–Military Relations • National Security and Intelligence: • Combating Terrorism: Policy, Strategy – Middle East, South Asia, Sub–Saharan • Defense Decision Making and Planning Africa • Homeland Defense and Security – Far East, Southeast Asia, Pacific • Homeland Security and Defense – Europe and Eurasia • Security Studies – Western Hemisphere • Stabilization and Reconstruction
Students The student body consists of U.S. officers from all branches of the uniformed services, civilian employees of the federal government, and military officers and government civilian employees of other countries. The resident degree/subspecialty student population for June 2010 is shown in Figure 1 on the following page.
iv INTRODUCTION
*Army Reserve, Army Reserve National Guard, Coast Guard, National Oceanographic and Aeronautics Administration
Figure 1: Resident Degrees/Subspecialty Student Population for June 2010
Academic Degrees Curricula meet defense requirements within the traditional degree framework. All curricula lead to a master’s; additional study may yield an engineer’s or doctoral degree. Below is a listing of the degrees offered at NPS:
Master of Arts Degrees Physics National Security Affairs Product Development Security Studies Program Management Software Engineering Master of Business Administration Space Systems Operations Systems Analysis Master of Science Degrees Systems Engineering Applied Mathematics Systems Engineering Analysis Applied Physics Systems Engineering Management Applied Science Systems Technology Astronautical Engineering Combat Systems Technology Engineer Degrees Computer Science Astronautical Engineer Computing Technology Electrical Engineer Contract Management Mechanical Engineer Defense Analysis Electrical Engineering Doctor of Philosophy Electronic Warfare Systems Engineering Applied Mathematics Engineering Acoustics Applied Physics Engineering Science Astronautical Engineering Human Systems Integration Computer Science Information Operations Electrical Engineering Information Systems and Operations Engineering Acoustics Information Technology Management Information Sciences Information Warfare Systems Engineering Mechanical Engineering Management Meteorology Materials Science and Engineering Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation Mechanical Engineering Operations Research Meteorology Physical Oceanography Meteorology and Physical Oceanography Physics Modeling, Virtual Environments, and Simulation Security Studies Operations Research Software Engineering Physical Oceanography
v INTRODUCTION
In June 2010, 159 degrees were conferred. Figure 2 indicates distribution by type, Figure 3 by degree area.
Figure 2. Distribution by Degree Type (159 Degrees Conferred)
*Advanced degrees (doctorate): Security studies, Applied mathematics, Meteorology, Physical oceanography, Software engineering (2), Mechanical engineering **Other master's degrees: Electrical engineering (1), Human systems integration (1), Information operations (1), Management (1), Meteorology and physical oceanography (1), Physics (1) Systems engineering management (1), Applied mathematics (2), Engineering acoustics (2), Contract management (3), Mechanical engineering (3), Systems technology (4)
Figure 3. Degrees Conferred in June 2010 (159 Degrees Conferred)
vi INTRODUCTION
Theses The thesis is the capstone of the student’s academic endeavor at NPS. Thesis topics address issues ranging from the current needs of the fleet and joint forces to the science and technology that is required to sustain long–term superiority of the Navy/DoD. Aided by their faculty advisors, NPS students represent a vital resource within the DoD for addressing warfighting problems, one especially important at present, when technology in general, and information operations in particular, is changing rapidly. Our officers think innovatively and possess the knowledge and skill to apply nascent technologies in the commercial and military sectors. Their first–hand grasp of operations, when combined with a challenging thesis project that requires them to apply their focused graduate education, is one of the most effective elements in solving fleet/joint–force problems. NPS graduate education encourages a lifelong capacity for applying basic principles to the creative solution of complex problems. NPS is unique in its ability to conduct classified research. Restricted theses are available on the NPS SIPRNET.
Figure 4. Classification of Theses (159 Degrees Conferred)
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viii TABLE OF CONTENTS
ADVANCED DEGREES
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Air-Sea Enthalpy and Momentum Exchange at Major Hurricane Wind Speeds...... 3 Deepening Democracy: Explaining Variations in the Levels of Democracy...... 3 Unstructured, High-Order Galerkin-Temporal-Boundary Methods for the Klein-Gordon Equation with Non-Reflecting Boundary Conditions ...... 4 Rip Channels, Megacusps, and Shoreline Change: Measurements and Modeling...... 4 MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
Contingency Contracting Officer Proficiency Assessment Test Development...... 9 The Impact of Logistics on Readiness and Lifecycle Cost: A Total Lifecycle Management Approach...... 9 Logistics and Maintenance Options to Support the P-8A Poseidon’s Expeditionary Mission...... 10 An Analysis of Maritime Support Vessels and Acquisition Methods Utilized to Support Maritime Irregular Warfare ...... 10 An Analysis of the Effectiveness of the U.S. Navy’s Strategic Sourcing Policy for Service Contracts ...... 11 ITEM Unique Identification Marking for a Littoral Combat Ship-Class Mission Module at the Mission Package Support Facility: Implementation Analysis and Development of Optimal Marking Procedures ...... 11 Strategic and Operational Considerations for the Implementation of Performance-Based Logistics within the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force...... 11 Batteries on the Battlefield: Developing a Methodology to Estimate the Fully Burdened Cost of Batteries in the Department of Defense ...... 12 Predicting the Impact of Full Body Scanners on Air Travel and Passenger Safety ...... 12 Ethos and Senior Leader Communication: Examining Responses to a Policy Change Memo...... 13 An Economic Analysis of Investment in the United States Shipbuilding Industry...... 13 Managing Disaster in the Ionian Sea: Planning and Optimizing Logistics for Disaster-Relief Operations for the Island of Kefalonia...... 14 Cost Management in a Tactical Environment: A Case Study of the 316th Expeditionary Support Command in Iraq, 2007–2008...... 14 Analysis of Implementing Lifetime Energy Cost, Including Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel and Energy Footprints of Contractors, as Mandatory Decision Factors in Navy Acquisition...... 15 An Analysis of the Return-on-Investment of the Consolidated Afloat Networks and Enterprise Services Program...... 15 An Analysis of Government Accountability Office and Department of Defense Inspector General Reports and Commercial Sources on Service Contracts...... 16 Estimating the Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel for a Naval Aviation Fixed-Wing Platform ...... 16 MASTER OF SCIENCE
APPLIED MATHEMATICS Trajectory Optimization for Helicopter Unmanned Aerial Vehicles...... 19 Safer Ski Jumps: The Design of Landing Surfaces and Clothoidal In-Run Transitions ...... 19
APPLIED PHYSICS The Utility of Satellite Lidar Waveform Data in Shallow Water ...... 21 Environmental Acoustic Considerations for Passive Detection of Maritime Targets by Hydrophones in a Deep-Ocean Trench...... 21 100Determination of Shock Properties of Ceramic Corbit 98: 98% Alumina ...... 22 A Numerical Simulation of the Ground Coupling of Low-Yield Nuclear Detonation...... 22 A Systematic Cathode Test Stand – Activation of the EIMAC Y-845 Thermionic Cathode and the University of Maryland Dispenser Photocathode...... 23 Lithium Gadolinium Borate in Plastic Scintillator as an Antineutrino Detection Material...... 23
ix TABLE OF CONTENTS
COMPUTER SCIENCE A Least Privilege Separation Kernel Storage-Hierarchy Prototype for the Trusted Computing Exemplar Project...... 25 An Analysis of Two Layers of Encryption to Protect Network Traffic ...... 25
CONTRACT MANAGEMENT Paperless Contract Folder’s (PCF) DoD 5015.2 Certification...... 27
DEFENSE ANALYSIS Power and Energy: Geopolitical Aspects of the Transnational Natural Gas Pipelines from the Caspian Sea Basin to Europe...... 29 Army Special Operations Forces Professional Military Education for the Future ...... 29 Control Over the Nile: Implications Across Nations...... 30 Applying the Theory and Techniques of Situational Criminology to Counterinsurgency Operations: Reducing Insurgency through Situational Prevention ...... 30 Increasing the Effectiveness of Army Pre-Deployment Training...... 31 An Abacus of Frozen Conflicts...... 31 Fixing the Whole-of-Government Approach in Failed States—A Model for Security Force Assistance...... 32 Organizing Police Expeditionary Capacities: Insights into a Wicked Problem Territory with Mathematical Modeling...... 32 A Social Movement Theory Typology of Gang Violence...... 33 The Nature of Insurgency in Afghanistan and the Regional Politics...... 33 The Lost Caravan: The Rise and Fall of Al Qaeda in Iraq, 2003-2007...... 34 Strategic Utilization of Norwegian Special Operations Forces ...... 34 Terrorist Networks, Money Laundering Schemes, and Nation Stability...... 35 Structuring Naval Special Warfare’s Lead Chief Petty Officer’s Combat Leadership Course...... 35
ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING Modeling and Demonstrating Regenerative Braking of a Squirrel-Cage Induction Motor with Various Deceleration Rates using V by F Control...... 37
ENGINEERING ACOUSTICS Event-Driven Simulation and Analysis of an Underwater, Acoustic Local Area Network ...... 39
HUMAN SYSTEMS INTEGRATION The Development and Initial Evaluation of the Human Readiness Level Framework ...... 41
INFORMATION OPERATIONS Strategic Utilization of Norwegian Special Operations Forces ...... 43
MANAGEMENT Batteries on the Battlefield: Developing a Methodology to Estimate the Fully Burdened Cost of Batteries in the Department of Defense ...... 45
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING A Hydrostatic and Hydrodynamic Analysis of a Lengthened DDG-51 Destroyer Modified Repeat ...... 47
METEOROLOGY AND PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY Incorporating Ensemble-Based Probabilistic Forecasts into a Campaign Simulation in the Weather Impact Assessment Tool...... 49
OPERATIONS RESEARCH A Survivability Assessment of the Transformable Craft in an Operational Environment ...... 51 A Dynamic Model for Political Stakeholders: Forecasting the Actions and Relationships of Lebanese Hizbullah with Markov Decision Processes...... 51 Using Experimental Design and Data Analysis to Study the Enlisted Specialty Model for the U.S. Army G1 ...... 52 Modeling Decision-Making Logic: A Case Study of Lebanese Hezbollah...... 52 Supporting Marine Corps Enhanced Company Operations: A Quantitative Analysis...... 53
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F/A-18(A-D) Wing Root Fatigue Life Expended (FLE) Prediction without the Use of Strain Gage Data ...... 53 An Assessment of the Operational Requirements for the Transformable Craft in Seabasing Missions ...... 54 A Study of Transportation and Its Planning Resources in the German Joint Support Service...... 54 A Two-Person, Zero-Sum, Network-Interdiction Game with Multiple Inspector Types...... 54 Robust Parameter Design for Agent-Based Simulation Models with Application in a Cultural Geography Model...... 55
PHYSICS High Terahertz Absorbing Nanoscale Metal Films for Fabrication of Micromechanical Bi-Material THz Sensors...... 57
PROGRAM MANAGEMENT The National Security Personnel System (NSPS): An Analysis of Key Stakeholders’ Perceptions during the Department of Defense’s Implementation of NSPS...... 59 A Test Plan Framework for Cross-Domain Solution Devices...... 59 The United States Army Land Mobile Radio Communication System: Impacts of Information Assurance on Commercial, Off-the-Shelf Systems...... 60 An Analysis of Technology Transition within the Department of Defense ...... 60
SPACE SYSTEMS OPERATIONS Modeling Laser Effects on Multi-Junction Solar Cells using Silvaco Atlas Software for Spacecraft Power Beaming Applications ...... 61
SYSTEMS ENGINEERING The Systems Integration of Autonomous Behavior Analysis to Create a “Maritime Smart Environment” for the Enhancement of Maritime Domain Awareness...... 63 The Applicability of DoDAF to the Conversion of a Crane Ship to Host a Ballistic Missile Defense Test Radar and Telemetry System...... 63
SYSTEMS ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT Using Kill-Chain Analysis to Develop Surface Ship CONOPS to Defend against Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles ...... 65
MASTER OF ARTS
SECURITY STUDIES American Higher Education in the Arabian Gulf – A Force for Liberalization ...... 69 Theatre and Cultural Diplomacy: The Role of the Performing Arts in How Nations Deal with Each Other ...... 69 The Macroeconomic Consequences of Job Discrimination against Women in Russia...... 70 Prostitution as a Possible Funding Mechanism for Terrorism...... 70 USCG Diversity: Moving Beyond “Training, Rules, and Regulations” ...... 71 Regulating Nation-State Cyber Attacks in Counterterrorism Operations...... 71 Defying Predictions? Chilean Civil–military Relations Since 1990...... 72 Strategic Planning for Comprehensive Security in the European Union’s Military Operations: EUFOR RD Congo, EUFOR TCHAD/RCA, and EUNAVFOR Somalia...... 72 Deliberalization in Jordan: The Roles of Islamists and U.S.–E.U. Assistance in Stalled Democratization...... 73 The Exploitation of a Weak State: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen ...... 73 The Ideals of Today’s Modernizing People’s Liberation Army...... 74 Democratization in Albania: The OSCE, NATO, and the European Union ...... 74 The President Has No Clothes: The Case for Broader Application of Red Teaming within Homeland Security...... 75 Civil–military Relations in the European Union and “Innere Fuehrung”...... 75 Limited War under the Nuclear Umbrella: An Analysis of India’s Cold Start Doctrine and Its Implications for Stability on the Subcontinent ...... 76 Zimbabwe: Internally or Externally Driven Meltdown? ...... 76 The Homeland Security Advisory System: An Assessment of Its Ability to Formulate a Risk Message ...... 77 Militarization of Energy Resources: Turkey as a Case Study ...... 77 Enhancing the European Union’s Development Strategy in Afghanistan...... 78 The Implications of the Rise of China’s Military for Mongolian Security...... 78
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Turkey as an Emerging Energy Hub...... 79
STUDENT INDEX...... 81
ADVISOR INDEX ...... 83
INFORMATION FOR OBTAINING A COPY OF A THESIS OR OTHER NPS REPORTS...... 85
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ADVANCED DEGREES
Doctor of Philosophy
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DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
AIR–SEA ENTHALPY AND MOMENTUM EXCHANGE AT MAJOR HURRICANE WIND SPEEDS Michael M. Bell–DoD Civilian B.A., University of Florida, 1996 B.S., Metropolitan State College of Denver, 2001 M.S., Colorado State University, 2006 Doctor of Philosophy in Meteorology–June 2010 Advisor: Michael T. Montgomery, Department of Meteorology Committee Members: Kerry Emanuel, Department of Meteorology Russell Elsberry, Department of Meteorology Patrick Harr, Department of Meteorology Qing Wang, Department of Meteorology Francis Giraldo, Department of Applied Mathematics
Air–sea exchanges of heat and momentum are important elements in understanding and skillfully predicting tropical cyclone intensity, but the magnitude of the corresponding wind-speed-dependent, bulk-exchange coefficients is largely unknown at major hurricane wind speeds greater than 50 m s-1. Since direct turbulent-flux measurements in these conditions are extremely difficult, the momentum and enthalpy fluxes are alternatively deduced via axisymmetric angular momentum and total energy budgets. A comprehensive error analysis is performed using both idealized numerical simulations to quantify and mitigate potentially significant uncertainties resulting from unresolved budget terms and observational errors. An analysis of six missions from the 2003 CBLAST field program in major hurricanes Fabian and Isabel is conducted using a new variational technique. This analysis indicates a near-surface mean drag coefficient (CD) of 2.4x10-3 with a 46% standard deviation and a mean enthalpy coefficient (CK) of 1.0x10-3 with a 40% standard deviation for wind speeds between 52 and 72 m s-1. These are the first known estimates of CK and the ratio of enthalpy to drag coefficient (CK/CD) in major hurricanes. The results suggest that there is no significant change in the magnitude of the bulk exchange coefficients estimated at minimal hurricane wind speeds, and the ratio CK/CD is likely less than 0.75 for wind speeds greater than 50 m s-1.
KEYWORDS: Tropical Cyclones, Major Hurricanes, Air-Sea Interaction, Drag Coefficient, Enthalpy Exchange Coefficient, CBLAST, Isabel, Fabian
DEEPENING DEMOCRACY: EXPLAINING VARIATIONS IN THE LEVELS OF DEMOCRACY Michael W. Fowler–Lieutenant Colonel, United States Air Force B.S., United States Air Force Academy, 1993 M.B.A., Western International University, 1999 M.S., Troy State University, 2006 Doctor of Philosophy in Security Studies–June 2010 Supervisor: Harold Trinkunas, Department of National Security Affairs Committee Members: Maria Rasmussen, Department of National Security Affairs Tom Bruneau, Department of National Security Affairs Robert Springborg, Department of National Security Affairs Robert M. McNab, Defense Resources Management Institute
This dissertation identifies the determinants of a country’s level of democracy. In 1996, President Clinton incorporated democracy promotion as a key element in the U.S. National Security Strategy. Experience since the Cold War has demonstrated that the implementation of reforms does not necessarily result in a western-style democracy. The selection and accountability of a country’s leaders reside on a political spectrum ranging from no democracy (i.e., fully autocratic) to full democracy, with many variations in between.
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Using a multi-method approach, including econometric, computational, and case study analysis, on Mexico, the Philippines, and Senegal, this study proposes and tests a model of democratic change based upon the interaction between a country’s socio-economic conditions, its actors, and its level of democracy. The analysis determines that no one factor could definitively predict a change in democracy. Each factor affects the preferences of key actors whose interaction results in changes in democracy. Violence and poverty provide a centripetal effect on polity, while economic crisis and the loss of an interstate war have a centrifugal effect that pushes polities towards the extremes of the polity spectrum. Although economic income and development contribute to the potential for democracy, neither factor affects the timing of changes in democracy.
KEYWORDS: Democracy, Democratization, Consolidation, Transition, Economic Development, Industrialization, Insurgency, Violence, Diffusion, Democratic Norms, Philippines, Mexico, Senegal, Quantitative Econometric Computational Model, Supply Demand Structural Actors, Agency, Institution, Autocracy
UNSTRUCTURED, HIGH-ORDER, GALERKIN, TEMPORAL-BOUNDARY METHODS FOR THE KLEIN-GORDON EQUATION WITH NONREFLECTING BOUNDARY CONDITIONS Joseph M. Lindquist–Major, United States Army B.S., Milwaukee School of Engineering, 1995 M.S., Naval Postgraduate School, 2004 Doctor of Philosophy in Applied Mathematics–June 2010 Advisors: Francis Giraldo, Department of Applied Mathematics Beny Neta, Department of Applied Mathematics
A reduced shallow-water model under constant, nonzero advection in infinite domains is considered. High-order Givoli-Neta (G-N) and Hagstrom-Hariharan (H-H) nonreflecting boundary conditions (NRBCs) are introduced to create a finite computational space and solved using a spectral element formulation with high-order time integration. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the synergy of using high-order spatial, time, and boundary discretizations. Several alternatives are also presented for solving open domain problems. These alternatives include adjustments to the G-N NRBC based on physical arguments, as well as formulating the boundary condition for arbitrary domains using unstructured grids. The H-H polar NRBC is also formulated in an unstructured grid setting and extended to include dispersive effects. Results show that by balancing all numerical errors involved, high-order accuracy can be achieved for unbounded channel problems. Further, the adjustments to the G-N and H-H NRBCs to operate in an unstructured grid setting are shown to significantly reduce errors over first-order, nonreflecting boundary schemes when operating in an open domain configuration.
KEYWORDS: Non-Reflecting Boundary, Spectral Elements, Runge-Kutta, High-Order, Klein-Gordon, Shallow Water Equations
RIP CHANNELS, MEGACUSPS, AND SHORELINE CHANGE: MEASUREMENTS AND MODELING Mark D. Orzech–DoD Civilian B.S., Harvey Mudd College, 1988 M.C.E., University of Delaware, 1997 Doctor of Philosophy in Physical Oceanography–June 2010 Advisor: Edward B. Thornton, Department of Oceanography
To investigate the relationship between alongshore rip-channel migration rates and alongshore sediment-transport rates, multiyear surf-zone video and wave datasets are examined at three sites along Monterey Bay, on the coast of California. Time-averaged, rectified video images are used to estimate daily rip migration rates, and the CERC formula is used to compute concurrent bulk alongshore sediment-transport rates. Correlation coefficients between daily rates of transport and migration are low, but they improve with frequency-based filtering. While higher frequency migration events (on time scales shorter than eight days) are often obscured below the “noise floor,” longer-period oscillations (spring/neap tidal and seasonal cycles) show up more clearly. Cumulatively summed mean rip migration distance and net alongshore sediment transport correlate well (with correlation coefficient r = 0.76 – 0.94), indicating that an approximately linear relationship exists at longer timescales.
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To examine the nature of megacusp formation on rip-channel bathymetries and identify dominant sediment- transport components, five years of surf-zone video and ADCP wave data are analyzed and the XBeach 2DH nearshore model is applied in a series of simulations over realistic bathymetries. XBeach is shown to hindcast measured shoreline change with moderate skill for lower wave energies. A process-based analysis is used to identify significant forcing terms at mean, infragravity, and very low-frequency timescales. Observations and model results both suggest that megacusps can form shoreward of either rip channels or shoals, depending on forcing conditions. In all model simulations, mean advective sediment transport plays the most important role in the creation of megacusps.
KEYWORDS: Rip Channels, Megacusps, Alongshore Sediment Transport, Morphodynamics, XBeach, Surf-Zone Video, Correlations, Infragravity, VLF
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MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
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MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
CONTINGENCY CONTRACTING OFFICER PROFICIENCY ASSESSMENT TEST DEVELOPMENT Juan Arzu–Major, United States Army Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Beire Castro–Major, United States Army Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Brian Mack–Major, United States Army Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Advisors: Rene G. Rendon, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy E. Cory Yoder, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
The establishment and standardization of training tasks by the Expeditionary Contracting Command (ECC) for Contingency Contracting Officers (CCOs) in the MOS 51C SMCT, in accordance with Army training doctrine, has helped subordinate units and individual CCOs within the ECC to focus their training efforts prior to deployment. This body of knowledge is a significant step in standardizing the pre-deployment training for CCOs and preparing them for their mission once deployed. To supplement this training, an appropriate performance-assessment tool is needed to measure performance of these thirty-six tasks. Currently, the ECC lacks a standardized method for measuring individual skill and task proficiency in its CCOs. This research developed the questions for a written proficiency test based on the 36 tasks listed in the SMCT in accordance with conditions, standards, and performance steps for each of the 36 tasks in the SMCT. The research team vetted each of the scenarios and accompanying questions through experienced CCO focus groups within the ECC. Upon completion of the test, the research team provided a written Contracting Officer Proficiency-Assessment Test, encompassing over 1,100 questions covering each of the 36 tasks listed in the SMCT, to the Expeditionary Contracting Command.
KEYWORDS: Contingency Contracting, Proficiency Assessment Test, SMCT, 51C, Soldier’s Manual of Common Tasks, Contracting, Individual Assessment, Training
THE IMPACT OF LOGISTICS ON READINESS AND LIFECYCLE COST: A TOTAL LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT APPROACH Andreas Balafas–Major, Hellenic Air Force Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Stavros Krimizas–Major, Hellenic Air Force Master of Business Administration–June 2010 John Stage–Lieutenant, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Advisors: Keebom Kang, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy E. Cory Yoder, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
Operational commanders are concerned with maintaining an optimal operational availability (Ao) for their weapons systems, while balancing readiness risk (probability of not achieving a threshold Ao) and cost. Ao has been integrated in the acquisition process (Department of Defense, 2009), affecting decision making to a great extent. In the early phase of an acquisition, an initial Ao threshold is created to support mission requirements. The initial Ao threshold is used in performance-based contracts in order to reduce the buyers’ risk and the total life-cycle cost (TLCC). Utilizing logistics modeling, cost analysis, and a test platform, the Light Armored Vehicle equipped with a 25mm gun system (LAV-25), currently employed by the United States Marine Corps (USMC), researchers determine the effects of logistics on Ao and TLCC utilizing specific critical factors, such as mean time between maintenance, mean down time, and operational tempo. This research provides which of the Ao’s
9 MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION synthetic parameters are more sensitive to maintaining specific levels of Ao and readiness risk in conjunction with the cost. Suggested alternatives for achieving Ao and readiness risk thresholds under specific cost constraints are provided.
KEYWORDS: Operational Availability, Readiness Risk, Total lifecycle Cost, Performance-Based Logistics, Reliability, Maintainability, Operational Tempo
LOGISTICS AND MAINTENANCE OPTIONS TO SUPPORT THE P-8A POSEIDON’S EXPEDITIONARY MISSION Bernard F. Calamug–Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 James A. Trout–Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Advisor: Keenan D. Yoho, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Second Reader: CDR Richard Nalwasky, USN, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
The purpose of this research is to identify the maintenance and logistics support structure needed to support the P- 8A’s anti-submarine warfare, anti-surface warfare, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions, while operating away from permanent deployment sites in austere operating areas, and to provide a set of possible support recommendations for these missions. This study focuses on the existing maintenance and logistics support structures currently utilized for missions being performed by the P-3 Orion, and proposes organizational and operational recommendations to better support the agile, flexible, and responsive missions requirement of the P-8A. The result will provide feasible alternatives for decision-makers regarding organizational design, as well as logistics and maintenance requirements to support overseas deployments to remote, forward-operating locations.
KEYWORDS: Anti-Submarine Warfare, ASW, Anti-Surface Warfare, ASUW, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance, ISR, P-8A Poseidon, Expeditionary, Forward Operating Location, FOL, Logistics, Maintenance, JOPES
AN ANALYSIS OF MARITIME SUPPORT VESSELS AND ACQUISITION METHODS UTILIZED TO SUPPORT MARITIME IRREGULAR WARFARE William J. Clark–Major, United States Army Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Christopher S. Kelley–Lieutenant, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Justin M. Bummara–Lieutenant, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Advisors: Keenan D. Yoho, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy James B. Greene, DoD Contractor
As the U.S. military continuously aligns the appropriate platforms to conduct maritime irregular warfare (MIW), the Special Operations Command (SOCOM) has leased/chartered civilian ships to provide the appropriate vessels needed to support operations in Operation Enduring Freedom–Philippines (OEF–P). The framework of this study showcases three specific vessels, with their corresponding capabilities, on a cost per day basis. Findings and analyses may aid commanders in determining the most appropriate vessel and the most cost-effective acquisition method to accomplish specific MIW missions not only in OEF-P, but also in other MIW environments. Based on the analysis and recommendations presented in this project, decision makers in this arena will have a mechanism from which to make a more informed decision regarding the acquisition of vessels supporting MIW. Decision makers will be able to evaluate various potential MIW scenarios, identify specific vessel capabilities to meet their operational requirements, and acquire vessels more cost-effectively based on total daily-rate costs.
KEYWORDS: Maritime Support Vessel, Maritime Irregular Warfare, Naval Special Warfare, Leasing, Chartering, USSOCOM, Operation Enduring Freedom-Philippines, SOF, SEALs, HSV, LCS, Military Sealift Command
10 MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE U.S. NAVY’S STRATEGIC SOURCING POLICY FOR SERVICE CONTRACTS Eric Dieges–Lieutenant, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 John R. Meyer–Lieutenant, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Matthew S. Shaw–Lieutenant, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Advisors: Rene G. Rendon, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Aruna Apte, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
Recent research conducted at the Naval Postgraduate School has proven that applying a pricing optimization model to Base Operations Support Services contracts on U.S. Air Force installations results in both significant cost savings and optimization of contracting resources. This project shows that similar improvements can be made by applying the same model to installation service contracts for use by the Naval Facilities Engineering Command.
KEYWORDS: Strategic Sourcing, Services, Contracting, NAVFAC, Pricing Optimization
ITEM UNIQUE IDENTIFICATION MARKING FOR A LITTORAL COMBAT SHIP-CLASS MISSION MODULE AT THE MISSION PACKAGE SUPPORT FACILITY: IMPLEMENTATION, ANALYSIS, AND DEVELOPMENT OF OPTIMAL MARKING PROCEDURES William K. Goodman–Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Isaia Benette E. Infante–Lieutenant, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Roland G. Rodriguez–Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Advisors: Geraldo Ferrer, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Douglas E. Brinkley, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
The purpose of this MBA project is to implement an effective solution to the Department of Defense’s mandatory January 2004 IUID policy for LCS MPs at the Port Hueneme MPSF. The methodology used is to analyze the item marking process to determine the optimal marking procedure for items that bypass the MPSF. Logical Decisions for Windows is used to determine the best course of action with regard to cost, crew burden, compliance achievement, and reduced mistakes. It is determined that, among five possible courses of action, waiting for a maintenance availability is the optimal solution.
KEYWORDS: Item Unique Identification, Littoral Combat Ship, Mission Package Support Facility, Unique Identification, Unique Item Identifier
STRATEGIC AND OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF PERFORMANCE-BASED LOGISTICS WITHIN THE JAPANESE MARITIME SELF-DEFENSE FORCE Gaku Harada–Lieutenant, Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Advisor: Keenan D. Yoho, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Second Reader: Bryan J. Hudgens, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
The Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) will initiate its first performance-based logistics (PBL) contract in fiscal year 2010. This first contract is an experiment in contracting with private firms to provide direct support for military forces. Performance-based logistics is a very new concept for the Japanese Self-Defense Force, and many policy issues remain unaddressed. The purpose of this research is to explore the critical strategic and operational risks and benefits that the JMSDF should consider concerning outsourcing public functions. This project identifies aspects of the experiences of the United States with performance-based logistics and how the JMSDF
11 MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION might learn from these experiences in order to emulate successes where conditions allow and avoid critical mistakes and failures. This study analyzes publicly available literature and documentation on performance-based logistics contracting, as well as contractor logistics support contracting, to develop a summary of the U.S. experience with PBL. The authors analyze 37 articles to summarize their findings and claims with regard to cost, performance, performance measurement, risk, information systems, appropriateness of a particular weapon system for PBL implementation, and organizational capability to evaluate, implement, and manage a PBL contract.
KEYWORDS: Performance-Based Logistics, Contractor Logistics Support, Outsourcing, Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force
BATTERIES ON THE BATTLEFIELD: DEVELOPING A METHODOLOGY TO ESTIMATE THE FULLY BURDENED COST OF BATTERIES IN THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Anthony E. Hughley–Major, United States Army Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Mark R. McClellan–Major, United States Army Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Troy O. Kiper–Major, United States Marine Corps Master of Science in Management–June 2010 Advisors: Daniel A. Nussbaum, Department of Operations Research Bryan J. Hudgens, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Keenan D. Yoho, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
According to Department of Defense (DoD) and Secretary of the Navy (SECNAV) instructions, acquisition decisions should be based on analysis that considers both the costs and benefits of different courses of action. A recent change to DoD Instruction 5000.02, the DoD’s regulations on the acquisition of new systems, specifically calls for its agencies to consider the fully burdened energy costs in all trade-offs involving costs and benefits. Defense ground, air, and maritime platforms, as well as communications and network systems, all use a variety of renewable and disposable energy sources. Past analyses conducted by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Cost and Economics (ODASA-CE) and the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics (OUSD(AT&L)) have developed methodologies to calculate the fully burdened cost of fuel as delivered energy in defense systems. Whereas these previous studies did not consider other energy sources, such as batteries, this thesis contributes to the DoD area of knowledge in estimating the lifecycle costs of systems by developing a methodology to estimate the fully burdened cost of batteries.
KEYWORDS: Lifecycle Cost Estimating, Battery Acquisition, Delivered Energy, Fully Burdened Costs, Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel, Fully Burdened Cost of Water, Fully Burdened Cost of Batteries, Analysis of Alternatives, Tradespace, Capability Development Document, Battery
PREDICTING THE IMPACT OF FULL BODY SCANNERS ON AIR TRAVEL AND PASSENGER SAFETY Mary Elaine Kessler–Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Brett Seeley–Lieutenant, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Advisors: David R. Henderson, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Phil Candreva, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
Good decisions can be made only by looking at the full picture and accounting for what is seen and what is not seen. Air-travel security measures aim to create more safety for the passenger; this is what is seen. What is not seen is the impact increased security measures create when passengers decide to substitute driving for flying. Traveling on a short-haul (under 500 miles) flight is significantly safer than driving that same distance in a vehicle. However, air- travel security measures have led to more passengers choosing to substitute driving for flying due to longer wait times, greater inconvenience, and, in particular, invasion of privacy.
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This study forecasts the impact full-body scanners will have on air travel and passenger safety. Full-body scanners invade privacy and, as a result, negatively affect those passengers who place a high value on securing and maintaining their privacy. Passengers who substitute driving for flying will increase their risk level and increase the number of highway driving fatalities. The findings are that full-body scanner usage at airports will increase annual highway driving fatalities from as few as 11 additional deaths to as many as 275.
KEYWORDS: Privacy, Elasticity, Safety
ETHOS AND SENIOR LEADER COMMUNICATION: EXAMINING RESPONSES TO A POLICY-CHANGE MEMO Sarah E. Martin–DoD Civilian Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Advisor: Cynthia L. King, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Second Reader: Cary Simon, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
Senior leaders use persuasive messages to achieve a variety of outcomes in the organizations they lead. Previous studies have examined discourse in senior leader messages to draw conclusions about leader communication, but little has been done to explicate the nature of the assumptions and judgments that emerge in both the intent and reception of these messages. This paper examines the relationship between senior leader intent and audience reception of a policy change memo in a large government agency. Using a think-aloud protocol, 24 qualitative interviews were conducted—one with the director and 23 with employees from field level through senior management. Rhetorical and thematic analysis of interview transcripts indicates that Aristotle’s three components of ethos—good sense, good character, and goodwill—emerge as primary themes in both the director’s intent behind the memo and in the way that it was received by participants in the study. Findings illustrate the manner in which ethos can operate in senior leader messages. This study concludes that ethos is an important rhetorical appeal in leadership messages and is an important basis of reader judgments. Implications for the relevance of ethos to business communication are discussed.
KEYWORDS: Leader Communication, Senior Leader Communication, Business Communication, Reception Study, Ethos, Persuasive Messages, Credibility
AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT IN THE UNITED STATES SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRY Nicholas A. Meyers–Lieutenant, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Advisors: Daniel A. Nussbaum, Department of Operations Research Joseph G. San Miguel, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
Amidst the global economic recession and sizeable injections of federal stimulus packages, the U.S. Navy’s budget for ship construction has experienced only modest real growth. While the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review has reaffirmed a fleet size goal of 313 ships, some suggest that $20 billion or more per year is needed to attain this level of strategic resources. This research analyzes the United States’ shipbuilding industry as a potential source of economic stimulus using measures applied in the United Kingdom by economists at Oxford Economics. First, monetary impacts from the shipbuilding and -repairing sector are analyzed using U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) input/output data and the Leontief inversion process modeled at Carnegie Mellon University. This sector is compared with five alternative investments. Second, the benefits of the shipyard-related labor market are analyzed using data from the BEA and the Naval Sea Systems Command. Measures of capital intensity and capacity are then applied to companies representing five industries. The results suggest that U.S. shipbuilding generates monetary benefits comparable to alternatives, while supporting more labor than other sectors. Finally, excess capacity shows a clear ability to absorb an increase in demand, providing prompt and positive impact on sustainable economic recovery.
KEYWORDS: Shipbuilding, Economics, Economic Recovery, Stimulus, Economic Return, Benefit, Ship Construction, Funding Ships, Submarine Construction, Shipbuilding Trends, Navy Fleet Size
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MANAGING DISASTER IN THE IONIAN SEA: PLANNING AND OPTIMIZING LOGISTICS FOR DISASTER-RELIEF OPERATIONS FOR THE ISLAND OF KEFALONIA Adamantios Mitsotakis–Major, Hellenic Air Force Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Georgios Kassaras–Captain, Hellenic Air Force Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Advisors: Aruna Apte, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Geraldo Ferrer, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
The increasing complexity and magnitude of global emergency-relief operations create a critical need for effective and efficient disaster-relief logistics. The irregular demand patterns and unusual constraints inherent in large-scale emergencies present unique challenges to logistic systems. Indeed, the logistical needs frequently surpass the capabilities of current emergency-response approaches. Greece is one of the most seismically active areas in the world. Furthermore, the topography of Greece, with its mountainous terrain and multiple islands, presents challenges in implementing disaster-relief operations, especially if one occurs on an island. This project examines the use of linear programming techniques for optimizing earthquake disaster-relief operations in an insular environment. Furthermore, it should be noted that such problems have direct application to the military environment because assets (personnel, equipment, etc.) of the armed forces are often utilized in disaster-relief operations.
KEYWORDS: Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Assistance, Military Operations Other than War, MOOTW, Operational Research, Earthquakes, Greece, Ionian Islands, Kefalonia
COST MANAGEMENT IN A TACTICAL ENVIRONMENT: A CASE STUDY OF THE 316TH EXPEDITIONARY SUPPORT COMMAND IN IRAQ, 2007–2008 Matthew B. Mixa–Major, United States Marine Corps Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Michael J. Williams–Major, United States Army Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Advisors: Dale R. Geiger, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Lawrence R. Jones, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
This project investigates the distinction between cost-benefit analysis and cost management. Although there exist several precedents in which elements of the Department of Defense have practiced cost management, examples of applied cost management in a theater of combat are nowhere to be found. This project provides a case study of the 316th Expeditionary Sustainment Command (ESC), which may begin to fill that void. The 316th ESC’s staff forecasted future consumption, supervised the execution of operational missions, measured the consumption of resources, and reviewed variances between what was planned and what actually happened. These steps raised questions that fed continuous improvement. Of the many projects initiated by the 316th ESC, the two that best exemplified the cost-management process were the institution of supply referrals and the reductions of “meal, ready- to-eat” (MRE) inventories. Supply referrals significantly reduced inventories, lowered transportation costs, and improved customer wait time. The reduction of MRE inventories saved over $4.8 million in direct costs, and saved soldiers’ lives by reducing supply convoys. By planning, executing, measuring, and reviewing the consumption of resources, the 316th ESC was able to target inefficiency and overconsumption, while providing better service to their customers. They accomplished their mission at the right cost.
KEYWORDS: 316th Expeditionary Sustainment Command, Cost Management, Case Study, Deployed, Cost Control, Iraq
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ANALYSIS OF IMPLEMENTING LIFETIME ENERGY COST, INCLUDING FULLY BURDENED COST OF FUEL AND ENERGY FOOTPRINTS OF CONTRACTORS, AS MANDATORY DECISION FACTORS IN NAVY ACQUISITION Doug Murphy–Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Chris Wilson–Lieutenant, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Advisors: Max Kidalov, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy E. Cory Yoder, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
The Secretary of the Navy (SECNAV), the honorable Ray Mabus, in an address to the Navy Energy Forum, announced as a new acquisition policy that the “lifetime energy cost of a building or a system, and the fully burdened cost of fuel in powering those, will be a mandatory evaluation factor used when awarding contracts.” Secretary Mabus went on to say, “we will also use the overall energy efficiency and the energy footprint of a competing company as an additional factor in acquisition decisions” (Mabus, 2009). Secretary Mabus made this announcement and shared three other green and efficiency goals for the Department of the Navy. His address now puts the onus on the Navy acquisition community to implement the broad policy goals that he outlined. A challenge to the community will be how to implement these goals with a uniform, objective, and definable standard that is able to withstand the scrutiny of Congress, which requires full and open competition, the business models of the defense industry, and the legal challenges that are sure to follow as a result of competition. This project analyzes the challenges of implementing Secretary Mabus’s announcement. This analysis further defines the problem, offers recommendations for proceeding, and suggests areas for further study. Specifically, a literature review is conducted in the areas of total ownership cost (including the fully burdened cost of fuel) and measuring energy efficiency. A methodology is then laid out for examining the issues associated with the implementation of the SECNAV’s announcement. Next, the researchers survey and analyze available private-industry practices in the areas of green procurement or managing energy efficiencies, looking for possible implications for the Department of the Navy. The issues involved with the implementation of the SECNAV’s policy are explored by defining the elements of total ownership cost, delving deeper into the fully burdened cost of fuel, and examining the difficulties with quantifying the energy efficiencies of competing companies. The project concludes with detailed recommendations for proceeding and suggestions for further study.
KEYWORDS: Total Ownership Cost, Lifetime Energy Cost, Lifecycle Energy Cost, Lifecycle Cost, Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel, Fully Burdened Cost of Energy, Energy Efficiency, Energy Footprint, Mandatory Evaluation Factors, Navy Acquisition, Energy Management Systems, Corporate Social Responsibility
AN ANALYSIS OF THE RETURN-ON-INVESTMENT OF THE CONSOLIDATED AFLOAT NETWORKS AND ENTERPRISE SERVICES PROGRAM Aleron B. Rognlie–Lieutenant, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Advisors: Kenneth Euske, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Douglas E. Brinkley, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
The purpose of this thesis is to calculate a value for the return-on-investment (ROI) of the Consolidated Afloat Networks and Enterprise Services (CANES). The research examines previous work performed by the CANES team in the development of a business case for CANES. This thesis also discusses some of the intangible benefits of CANES and the difference between cost savings and cost avoidance. The thesis focuses on quantifying the possible benefits of upgrading the current shipboard network system to the CANES system, and determining whether those benefits are likely to be realized in actual operations. A CANES ROI of 73% is calculated. A sensitivity analysis is performed to examine how ignoring cost avoidance affects the calculated value of ROI, along with how much other input factors would have to change in order to make the CANES investment unattractive.
KEYWORDS: Consolidated Afloat Networks and Enterprise Services, CANES, Shipboard Network, C4I, ROI, ISNS, Network Consolidation, SOA
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AN ANALYSIS OF GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY OFFICE AND DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE INSPECTOR GENERAL REPORTS AND COMMERCIAL SOURCES ON SERVICE CONTRACTS Anthony J. Seifert–Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Ilia K. Ermoshkin–Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Advisors: Uday M. Apte, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Rene G. Rendon, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
The purpose of this MBA project is to investigate and provide a comprehensive analysis of data based on government service contracts during the six phases of the government contract process. Primary deficiencies and best practices in contracting are identified for each government report, and an analysis is conducted to identify trends within and across the above categories. Specifically, this research identifies common deficiencies and best practices in contracting based on GAO reports, Department of Defense IG reports, and articles based on services acquisition in the commercial sector. This will provide the basis for further study of the subject, as well as material for improvement of DoD contracting practices as compared to commercial best practices in contracting.
KEYWORDS: Accountability, Benchmarking, Best Practices, Building Information Modeling, Contract Administration, Contract Closeout, Contract Termination, Contracting Officer Representative, GAO Reports, Government Contracts, IG Reports, Price Growth, Program Growth, Procurement, Service Contracts, Solicitation, Source Selection, Total Ownership Cost
ESTIMATING THE FULLY BURDENED COST OF FUEL FOR A NAVAL AVIATION FIXED-WING PLATFORM Daniel R. Truckenbrod–Commander, United States Navy Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Advisors: Daniel A. Nussbaum, Department of Operations Research Joseph G. San Miguel, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
This thesis provides the background and motivation for furthering the fully burdened cost of fuel (FBCF) cost- estimating methodology and calculations in the context of a Naval aviation fixed-wing platform. The FBCF contribution to total ownership cost in the analysis of alternatives for major defense-acquisition programs requires steady advancement to meet an October 2011 implementation deadline. Applying OSD guidance and a calculator mathematical process facilitates comparison of the additional costs to deliver and protect fuel demanded by the F/A-18E/F aircraft with those added costs for a ship platform. Total costs throughout a realistic operation and support lifecycle and applying a notional scenario to the newest calculator demonstrate a range of cost estimating methods. The conclusions support previous analysis that air refueling contributes significantly to logistics support costs and that investment in fuel conservation technologies and platform endurance can be a strategic opportunity for the Department of Defense and the Department of the Navy. The aircraft FBCF is multiple times higher than the fuel commodity price as compared to the FBCF for ships, which is only fractionally higher than the fuel commodity price. The assured delivery price of supplied fuel calculations is complicated for platforms that require multiple refueling support assets.
KEYWORDS: Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel, FBCF, Analysis of Alternatives, AOA, Defense Acquisition, Acquisition, Life-Cycle Costs, LCC, Cost Reporting
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MASTER OF SCIENCE
Applied Mathematics Applied Physics Computer Science Contract Management Defense Analysis Electrical Engineering Engineering Acoustics Human Systems Integration Information Operations Management Mechanical Engineering Meteorology Operations Research Physics Program Management Space Systems Operations Systems Engineering Systems Engineering Management
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MASTER OF SCIENCE IN APPLIED MATHEMATICS
TRAJECTORY OPTIMIZATION FOR HELICOPTER UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES Benjamin T. Gatzke–Major, United States Army B.S., United States Military Academy, 1999 Master of Science in Applied Mathematics–June 2010 Advisor: Wei Kang, Department of Applied Mathematics Second Reader: Hong Zhou, Department of Applied Mathematics
This thesis explores the numerical methods and software development for optimal trajectories of a specific model of a helicopter unmanned, aerial vehicle (UAV) in an obstacle-rich environment. This particular model is adopted from the UAV Laboratory of the National University of Singapore, who built and simulated flights for an X-Cell 60 small-scale UAV helicopter. The code, which allows the team to simulate flights, is a complex system of nonlinear differential equations—fifteen state variables and four control variables—used to maneuver the state trajectories. This non-linear model is incorporated into a separate optimization algorithm code, which allows the user to set initial and final time conditions together with various constraints, and, using the same variable scheme, optimize a trajectory. The optimal trajectory is defined by using a cost function—the performance measure—and the system is subject to a set of constraints (such as mechanical limitations and physical three-dimensional obstacles). Simulations conclude that solutions are readily obtained; however, it is still very difficult to derive trajectories that are truly optimal, and this work calls for future research in computational programs for optimal trajectory planning. All simulations in this thesis are modeled using the MATLAB program.
KEYWORDS: Nonlinear Model, Trajectory Optimization, State and Control Variables, Cost Function
SAFER SKI JUMPS: THE DESIGN OF LANDING SURFACES AND CLOTHOIDAL IN-RUN TRANSITIONS Andrew D. Swedberg–Major, United States Army B.S., United States Military Academy, 2000 Master of Science in Applied Mathematics–June 2010 Advisors: Mont Hubbard, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of California-Davis Arthur J. Krener, Department of Applied Mathematics
This thesis explores the recent rise of skiing and snowboarding injuries from jumps fabricated with no scientific design process. It summarizes a previous method to develop a first-order ordinary-differential equation (ODE) for the landing-surface shape, based on kinematics and dynamics, which limits the equivalent fall height (EFH) on landing. These are compared with theoretical expressions for EFH in tabletop jumps, which are shown to have linearly increasing and possibly large EFH values near the ends of the tabletop and linear landing-slope portions. This research explores methods for finding solutions to the ODE, with heavy emphasis on determining the singular point where the ODE numerical integration can begin. Analysis is conducted to determine the best way to design a curved in-run transition portion of the jump that limits the additional centripetal acceleration on a particle undergoing the required velocity change of direction of a given amount. This turn can be accomplished using a unique curve known as a clothoid, which minimizes jerk along the path. The final topics include a plan for providing maintenance for safe terrain park ski jumps and an algorithm that will assist a manager in planning where and how to build a jump.
KEYWORDS: Skiing, Snowboarding, Terrain Park, Injuries, Singular Point, Clothoid
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MASTER OF SCIENCE IN APPLIED PHYSICS
THE UTILITY OF SATELLITE LIDAR WAVEFORM DATA IN SHALLOW WATER Neal Battaglia–DoD Civilian B.S., Santa Clara University, 2007 Master of Science in Applied Physics–June 2010 Advisor: Richard C. Olsen, Department of Physics Second Reader: David M. Trask, Measurement and Signature Intelligence (MASINT) Chair Professor
In this thesis, full waveform lidar data from the CALIPSO satellite are analyzed for their ability to provide information about water depth. The CALIPSO lidar operates at 532 and 1064-nm. The 532-nm sensor measures both total power and the perpendicularly polarized intensity. Transects are studied from three geographic areas; the Kure Atoll (near Midway), the Bahamas, and the Sequoia National Forest. Differences in the data for two wavelengths and polarization for the 532-nm light are examined. The cross-polarized return at 532-nm is found to be strongly related to water depth. Results are compared with depth information determined by the brightness in Landsat imagery. Shallow water areas are seen to have a specific LIDAR signature based upon the ratios of backscattered light.
KEYWORDS: Lidar Waveforms, Underwater Lidar Signature, Spaceborne Lidar
ENVIRONMENTAL ACOUSTIC CONSIDERATIONS FOR PASSIVE DETECTION OF MARITIME TARGETS BY HYDROPHONES IN A DEEP-OCEAN TRENCH Jeremy S. Biediger–Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., Tulane University, 2001 Master of Science in Applied Physics–June 2010 Advisor: Joseph A. Rice, Department of Physics
This thesis explores the potential advantage of deep-ocean trench placement of an acoustic sensor network. The hypothesis is that a hydrophone deployed in a deep-ocean trench will operate in an environment of reduced ambient noise such that passive maritime surveillance may be performed with a relatively high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Barrier or “tripwire” coverage along the oceanic trench is made possible by virtue of networked acoustic communication among widely spaced hydrophones. Physics-based, hydro-acoustic propagation modeling supports analysis of target-to-sensor propagation and networked acoustic communication links in representative trench environments.
KEYWORDS: Underwater Acoustics, Seaweb, Deep Seaweb, Undersea Noise Calculation, Ocean Trenches, Surveillance, Anti-Submarine Warfare, Maritime Domain Awareness, Passive Detection, Reliable Acoustic Path, Sensor Network
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100DETERMINATION OF SHOCK PROPERTIES OF CERAMIC CORBIT 98: 98% ALUMINA Jeffrey R. Denzel–Ensign, United States Navy B.S., United States Naval Academy, 2009 Master of Science in Applied Physics–June 2010 Advisors: Robert S. Hixson, Department of Physics José Sinibaldi, Department of Physics
The shock properties of Bitossi Corbit 98 are investigated. This ceramic material—98% Al2O3—is selected as the first component in a new layered-armor design, which requires knowledge of the information discussed. The design encompasses an extremely hard first layer to deform the projectile, an orthotropic second layer to slow down the shock wave propagation, a third porous layer to absorb the shock wave energy through PV-work, and a fourth layer to provide confinement for the porous medium. Shock properties are determined by parallel-plate-impact experiments done at various velocities: 200-800m/s. The impactor material for asymmetric experiments is sapphire or aluminum. A single-stage three-inch bore gas gun is used to accelerate the projectile for experiments at the Naval Postgraduate School. The Los Alamos National Laboratory used a higher performance gun to obtain higher impact speeds. A velocity interferometer is used to determine shock velocity in combination with time-of-arrival pins. These results confirmed previous work at higher pressures. Through this study, improved data for this ceramic were obtained, which will allow higher fidelity numeric simulations of overall armor system performance to be done.
KEYWORDS: Shock Physics, Hugoniot Equation of State, Ceramic, Corbit 98, Armor, VISAR, Spall, Elastic Limit
A NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE GROUND COUPLING OF LOW-YIELD NUCLEAR DETONATION Brian C. Holloway–Captain, United States Army B.S., Morgan State University, 2001 Master of Science in Applied Physics–June 2010 Advisor: Craig F. Smith, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Second Reader: Lew A. Glenn, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Without nuclear testing, advanced simulation and experimental facilities, such as the National Ignition Facility (NIF), are essential to assuring safety, reliability, and effectiveness of the nuclear force; these capabilities are invaluable to the nation’s Stockpile Stewardship Program. A significant information gap exists in the hydrodynamic response to nuclear detonations that occur near the earth’s surface. Numerical simulation methods are used to evaluate the hydrodynamic response of earth-like materials and to develop the energy coupling/partitioning curve for low-yield nuclear detonations close to the earth’s surface. Using LLNL’s supercomputers and GEODYN hydrodynamic code, the properties of stress, pressure, and energy are evaluated for twelve simulated 2.5kT detonations; six above the surface and six below the surface. The results indicate stronger air blasts for detonations above or near the surface and that energy coupling into the ground changes rapidly with detonation location over a very small range between the above-ground and below-ground interface. This work serves to provide a baseline model to evaluate stress, pressure, and energy in relation to nuclear yield close to the earth’s surface. The results support a better understanding of the physics of near-surface detonations and also assist in planning future experimental work at NIF.
KEYWORDS: National Ignition Facility, GEODYN, Ground Coupling, Coupling Curve, Surface Nuclear Detonation
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A SYSTEMATIC CATHODE TEST STAND: ACTIVATION OF THE EIMAC Y- 845 THERMIONIC CATHODE AND THE UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND DISPENSER PHOTOCATHODE Justin C. Jimenez–Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., United States Naval Academy, 2004 Master of Science in Applied Physics–June 2010 Advisor: John W. Lewellen, Department of Physics Second Reader: John R. Harris, Department of Physics
The free-electron laser (FEL) is one of the Navy’s “future weapons” undergoing research and testing for future implementation on naval vessels. The Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) is joining in the Navy’s FEL effort by constructing a scaled-down version of the Naval system – the NPS FEL. The first goal of this research is to better understand the current thermionic cathode used in the NPS FEL system, the EIMAC Y845. This thesis explores the outgassing of these cathodes, as well as chart voltage versus temperature, an important factor for understanding the operational regime the cathode will be in (primarily photoemission, or thermionic, or both). Additionally, researchers examine a new type of cesium cavity reservoir dispenser photocathode currently being built by the University of Maryland. Dispenser photocathodes are a promising technology in that they may have much longer lifetimes than other types of high quantum-efficiency photocathodes. The concern with this new style of cathode relates to cesium contamination that may take place during processing. The aim of this project is to ascertain the degree of contamination that users may experience if utilizing these cathodes. This data will help determine whether or not this is a viable technology.
KEYWORDS: Thermionic Cathode, Dispenser Photocathode, Activation, Vacuum Contamination, Cesium, Work Function, Enhancement
LITHIUM GADOLINIUM BORATE IN PLASTIC SCINTILLATOR AS AN ANTINEUTRINO DETECTION MATERIAL Peter C. Nelson–Major, United States Army B.S., United States Military Academy, 1999 Master of Science in Applied Physics–June 2010 Advisor: Craig F. Smith, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Second Reader: Nathaniel S. Bowden, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Experiments and simulations are conducted to assess the use of lithium gadolinium-borate (LGB) crystals to identify neutron capture in a detector system intended to detect nuclear-reactor antineutrinos. The experiments use two prototype detectors comprised of crushed LGB crystal mixed with plastic scintillator. Both detectors are 127 mm diameter cylinders, with heights of 123 mm and 348 mm. Each contains 1% by weight LGB crystal, but different LGB particle sizes. The experiments determine neutron capture efficiencies, interevent timing, and scintillation light attenuation of the prototype detectors. Indications of neutron captures on 10B are also evident, but accurate efficiency measurements are hampered by contamination from non-neutron capture events. Computer simulations using the GEANT4 toolkit are conducted to analyze detector performance. Comparisons between experiment and simulations are made to validate the detector modeling. Simulations of detector performance at inverse beta decay neutron energies are conducted to determine neutron detection efficiency in an antineutrino detection role. Variation of isotope content, LGB loading, and LGB particle size are modeled to explore possible improvements in neutron capture efficiency at neutron energies associated with inverse beta decay.
KEYWORDS: Antineutrino Detection, Inverse Betad Decay, Neutron Capture, Lithium Gadolinium Borate
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MASTER OF SCIENCE IN COMPUTER SCIENCE
A LEAST-PRIVILEGE SEPARATION KERNEL, STORAGE-HIERARCHY PROTOTYPE FOR THE TRUSTED COMPUTING-EXEMPLAR PROJECT Jonathan M. Guillen–DoD Civilian B.S., Western Oregon University, 2010 Master of Science in Computer Science–June 2010 Advisors: Cynthia E. Irvine, Department of Computer Science Paul C. Clark, Department of Computer Science Peter J. Denning, Department of Computer Science
The least-privilege separation kernel (LPSK) is part of the Trusted Computing Exemplar (TCX) project. Separation kernels may be used to partition resources in support of the enforcement of mandatory security policies. The LPSK provides services that allow each subject to access resources configured as part of its domain. To ensure permanence of information, the LPSK requires a storage hierarchy for its data resources. This thesis describes the design for an LPSK storage hierarchy based on existing LPSK requirements. The design is implemented in a Linux environment to produce a storage-hierarchy prototype. Implementation of the prototype proceeds in keeping with principles for developmental security, which include minimization, modularity, and hierarchical dependencies. The LPSK storage-hierarchy external interfaces belong in three distinct categories: the configuration interfaces are used to construct the storage hierarchy and its contents in a non-LPSK context; initialization interfaces associate data segment handles with data segments that are exported to LPSK subjects; and runtime interfaces support the reading and writing to secondary-storage data segments exported to non-LPSK subjects. Testing shows that storage-hierarchy interfaces behave according to specification. It is shown that a storage-hierarchy prototype can be designed and implemented based on the LPSK functional specification.
KEYWORDS: Trustworthy Systems, Separation Kernels, Secondary Storage, Storage Hierarchy
AN ANALYSIS OF TWO LAYERS OF ENCRYPTION TO PROTECT NETWORK TRAFFIC Ryan Ware–DoD Civilian B.S., New Mexico Tech, 2007 Master of Science in Computer Science–June 2010 Advisor: George Dinolt, Department of Computer Science Second Reader: Jennifer Guild, SPAWAR Systems Center Atlantic
In this thesis, researchers analyze the effectiveness of defense-in-depth mechanisms. As an example of defense in depth, researchers study two layers of encryption to protect network traffic. At a quick glance, two layers of encryption appear to provide some strong security benefits, including increased host- and network-level security, increased cryptographic strength, and a backup layer of encryption. However, intuition and quick glances should not be relied upon in the field of information assurance. The intent of this thesis is to quantitatively show the increase in security the extra layer of encryption provides and to compare this information with the cost of the extra security. This thesis proposes two architectures with one layer of encryption and several architectures with two layers of encryption. It quickly compares these architectures and then starts a more in-depth analysis of the best two-layer architecture using fault-tree analysis. The thesis presents the results from the study, provides some recommendations based on the results, and discusses future work in this field.
KEYWORDS: Encryption, Computer Security, Network Security, Architecture, Fault Tree Analysis, Defense-in- Depth
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MASTER OF SCIENCE IN CONTRACT MANAGEMENT
PAPERLESS CONTRACT FOLDER (PCF) DOD 5015.2 CERTIFICATION Kimberly C. Flynn–DoD Civilian B.S., Monmouth University, 2002 M.B.A., Monmouth University, 2004 Master of Science in Contract Management–June 2010 Colleen E. Grasso– DoD Civilian B.S., Monmouth University, 2002 M.B.A., Monmouth University, 2004 Master of Science in Contract Management–June 2010 Eric W. Boorom– DoD Civilian B.S., Caldwell College, 2003 M.B.A, Caldwell College, 2007 Master of Science in Contract Management–June 2010 Advisor: Michael C. Doelling, U.S. Army Communications–Electronic Command (CECOM) Acquisition Center Second Reader: Douglas E. Brinkley, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
The objective of this project is to conduct an analysis of the CECOM contracting center’s paperless contracting folder program in regards to maintaining its Department of Defense (DoD) 5015.2 certification. The desired outcome is the creation of a file plan and user guide to assist with DoD 5015.2 certification.
KEYWORDS: Paperless Contract Folder, PCF, Department of Defense, DoD, 5015.2 Certification, Records Management Applications, RMA, File Plan, User Guide
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MASTER OF SCIENCE IN DEFENSE ANALYSIS
POWER AND ENERGY: GEOPOLITICAL ASPECTS OF THE TRANSNATIONAL NATURAL- GAS PIPELINES FROM THE CASPIAN SEA BASIN TO EUROPE Ildiko Benke−Civilian, Hungarian Republic B.A., Eotvos Lorand University, 1983 Master of Science in Defense Analysis−June 2010 Advisor: Mikhail Tsypkin, Department of National Security Affairs Second Reader: George Lober, Department of Defense Analysis
This study examines the geopolitical rivalry over control of the Caspian Sea basin’s natural-gas resources and the transportation routes among four world powers: Russia, the European Union, the United States, and China. The author assesses the risks posed by instability in the Caspian Sea states to the realization of proposed natural-gas pipeline projects in the region. Russia’s role and strategy as a key player in the Caspian Sea region is analyzed, with a focus on its natural gas reserves and pipeline transportation system, which it is using not only for economic reasons but for political purposes to regain its lost status on the international scene. The study also evaluates the impact of individual states’ conflicts of interest on the choice of natural gas transportation routes to Europe.
KEYWORDS: Natural Gas, Transportation Routes, Pipelines, Power Rivalry, Energy Demand, Energy Resources, Energy Policy, Energy Security, Post-Cold War Era, Caspian Sea Basin, Russian Periphery, Geopolitical, Littoral States, Political Instability
ARMY SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES PROFESSIONAL MILITARY EDUCATION FOR THE FUTURE Bradford M. Burris–Major, United States Army B.A., Carson-Newman College, 1996 Master of Science in Defense Analysis–June 2010 Advisor: Anna Simons, Department of Defense Analysis Second Reader: Dayne Nix, Naval War College
One way to educate United States Army special operators is by allowing organizational design and individual competencies to form the nucleus of a professional military-education curriculum routinely evaluated against assessment variables, such as the emerging strategic context, the requests of Theater Special Operations Commands or other customer units, and the feedback of deployed operators and teams. This thesis recommends an Army Special Operations Command-focused educational-development process applicable to the career-long education and utilization of Special Forces, civil affairs, and psychological operations professionals. To make these recommendations, the thesis considers why the organizational structure of the Army Special Operations Forces (ARSOF) should differ from that of their general purpose forces counterparts and identifies the expected ARSOF mission-set for the next twenty years, as well as the professional competencies required to execute this expected mission-set. A series of suggestions is offered for how the recommended changes could be implemented.
KEYWORDS: Military Education, Special Operations Education, Army Education, ARSOF Leader Development, Special Forces, Psychological Operations, Civil Affairs, Professional Military Education
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CONTROL OVER THE NILE: IMPLICATIONS ACROSS NATIONS David K. Chesire−Major, Kenyan Army B.A., Kenyatta University, 1994 Master of Science in Defense Analysis−June 2010 Advisor: Douglas A. Borer, Department of Defense Analysis Second Reader: Anna Simons, Department of Defense analysis
Worldwide, shared water resources continue to attract attention owing to the nature of utilization, which often leads to either conflict or cooperation among and between countries. This study evaluates the issue of water scarcity among the Nile basin countries, the legitimacy of contested water agreements, and their impact on interstate relations. Among the major findings of the study are that several agreements entered into between Egypt, Sudan, and Britain (as a colonial power in the region) have served as sources of conflict over the use of Nile waters; and Egypt continues to monopolize utilization of Nile waters despite increasing efforts by other riparian states towards a cooperative framework for equitable utilization. Moreover, water scarcity in the region results from over- consumption of Nile water by Egypt and Sudan, rising populations, and environmental changes. Further, the international community, notably the African Union and the United Nations, has not played a significant role in resolving water disputes in the Nile basin. The author argues that the downstream states currently exercising influence in the basin should recognize the imperative to accept a water regime in line with the interests of the whole basin, given the geographical configuration of the basin and the changing geopolitics. The author also highlights the conflicting international water laws/principles that have contributed to the difficulty in resolving the Nile dispute. It is recommended that, alongside pursuing renegotiation of Nile water agreements, riparian states need to consider exploring alternative water sources and address rising populations. In addition, the international community needs to take a more proactive role in resolving the Nile water dispute. It is the author’s assertion that presenting the Nile water dispute to the African Union for arbitration could add impetus to the negotiations. An assessment of regional factor endowments to facilitate sub-basin projects based on comparative advantages could also create interdependence and promote the attainment of a workable solution in pursuit of equitable utilization.
KEYWORDS: Upstream States, Downstream States, Sovereign Territory, Equitable Utilization, National Security, Conflict, Water Scarcity, Nile River Basin, Hegemony, Control, Legitimacy, Absolute Territorial Sovereignty, Natural Rights, Absolute Integrity, Acquired Rights, Negotiations, Contentious Agreements, Prior Appropriation, Virtual Water, Interstate Relations, Competitive Exploitation, Political Stability/Instability, Compromise, Cooperation, Unilateralism, Food Security, Regional Security, Strategic Interests, Sustainable Exploitation, Riparian Co-Dependence, Limited Territorial Sovereignty, Limited Integrity, Arbitration, Asymmetry
APPLYING THE THEORY AND TECHNIQUES OF SITUATIONAL CRIMINOLOGY TO COUNTERINSURGENCY OPERATIONS: REDUCING INSURGENCY THROUGH SITUATIONAL PREVENTION Stephen Gibbs–Major, United States Army B.S., Excelsior University, 2002 Master of Science in Defense Analysis–June 2010 Advisor: Hy Rothstein, Department of Defense Analysis Second Reader: Michael E. Freeman, Department of Defense Analysis
This research introduces and adapts the twenty-five techniques of situational crime prevention for use in counterinsurgency operations. These techniques are based on a set of powerful theories within the fields of environmental and situational criminology. Situational prevention is a strategy that addresses specific crimes, or insurgent activity, by managing, designing, and manipulating the environment in a manner that seeks to increase the risk to the insurgent, while reducing the insurgent’s potential reward for committing the act. The twenty-five techniques offer a practical means to apply these theories to the reality of counterinsurgency operations. Use of the twenty-five techniques would expand the repertoire of preventive countermeasures, and enable a security force to intervene in the causal chain events to prevent or reduce the occurrence of insurgent violence and crime. These techniques originate from five core principles: increasing effort, increasing risk, reducing rewards, removing excuses, and reducing provocations.
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KEYWORDS: Situational Prevention, Criminology, Environmental Criminology, Counterinsurgency, Counterinsurgency Operations, Deterrence, Crime Prevention through Environmental Design, CPTED, Security Fence, Israeli Security Fence, Operation Cul-de-Sac, OCDS, Opportunity Theory, Opportunity Structure, Targets, Tools, Weapons, Facilitating Conditions
INCREASING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ARMY PRE-DEPLOYMENT TRAINING Paul M. Grant–Major, United States Army B.S., United States Military Academy, 1999 Master of Science in Defense Analysis–June 2010 Advisor: Frank R. Giordano, Department Defense Analysis Second Reader: COL Gregory R. Wilson, USA, Department of Defense Analysis
Currently, commanders must ensure that soldiers are proficient in hundreds of core and directed mission-essential tasks prior to deployment. However, pre-deployment training is constrained by limitations on available resources. As a result, commanders must decide whether to attempt to train everything to a limited level of proficiency or focus on certain tasks. Attempting to train everything is nearly impossible, as there is competition between units for finite training resources (land, ammunition, etc.), and even if resources were infinite, there is not enough time. Soldiers may become “jacks of all trades, masters of none,” and upon encountering an unfamiliar task during deployment, a lack of proficiency can have critical effects. If a commander instead attempts to focus on a limited number of tasks and train those to levels of mastery, Soldiers will be well prepared to deal with situations involving those tasks, but when presented with situations not involving those tasks, unfamiliarity may produce catastrophic results. The result is that commanders often make decisions to prioritize training and allocate effort based upon higher guidance, intuition, or in the worst case, on what training is available. Overall, the decisions are, at best, guesses as to what may occur later during deployment. This research attempts to identify what primarily influences decisions when training, and proposes a methodology for making more optimal decisions.
KEYWORDS: Pre-Deployment, Training, Optimization, CMETL, DMETL, Individual Skills, Afghanistan, Mission Essential, Influence
AN ABACUS OF FROZEN CONFLICTS Reshad A. Karimov– Center for Strategic Studies, Azerbaijan M.A., Azerbaijan State University, 2001 Master of Science in Defense Analysis–June 2010 Advisor: Michael E. Freeman, Department of Defense Analysis Second Reader: Frank R. Giordano, Department of Defense Analysis
One of the central topics of international relations study is the function of military threats as a means of deterring international crises and war. Rational choice models provide the groundwork for theorizing circumstances under which conventional deterrence is likely to thrive or fail. According to Paul Huth, rational deterrence theorists have focused on four sets of variables: the balance of military forces, costly signaling and bargaining behavior, reputations, and interests at stake. By using the case of the Russian–Georgian War of August 2008, one can argue that an actor’s perception, in addition to signaling, is another essential variable for successful deterrence.
KEYWORDS: Russian-Georgian War of August of 2008, Deterrence Theory, Security Dilemma, Perception, Accidental War, Spiral Model, Game Theory, Game of Chicken, USSR, Fall of the Soviet Union, Republic of Georgia, Russia, South Ossetian Conflict, Abkhaz Conflict, Frozen Conflicts, Frozen Peace Processes
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FIXING THE WHOLE-OF-GOVERNMENT APPROACH IN FAILED STATES: A MODEL FOR SECURITY FORCE ASSISTANCE James C. Keller–Major, United States Army B.A., King College, 1996 Master of Science in Defense Analysis–June 2010 Advisor: Anna Simons, Department of Defense Analysis Second Reader: Kalev I. Sepp, Department of Defense Analysis
This thesis proposes an organizational and operational model for developing partner-nation special-operations forces (SOF) in failed states and under-governed spaces. The partner nation SOF would be designed to improve and expand sovereignty throughout the country. Accordingly, the model organization would provide the basic functions of governance, while supporting the development of social capital and national civic identity. To achieve this, the authors propose a security-force assistance framework for U.S. forces to develop the partner nation program. Within this framework, U.S. involvement would be reduced to the minimum; advisors would guide and direct the partner nation in the development and employment of their SOF. This thesis uses the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) as a potential partner nation; specific recommendations are made for application of this model to the DRC. Finally, suggestions are made regarding adapting this model to other failed states and under-governed areas.
KEYWORDS: Failed States, Under-Governed Spaces, Security Force Assistance, Sovereignty, Africa, Special Operations Command–Africa, Oil-Spot, Counterinsurgency, Special Operations Forces, Whole-of-Government, Building Partner Capacity
ORGANIZING POLICE EXPEDITIONARY CAPACITIES: INSIGHTS INTO A WICKED PROBLEM TERRITORY WITH MATHEMATICAL MODELING Miroslav Lipowski–Captain, Czech Armed Forces B.S., Hradec Kralove University, 1997 M.A., Jana Amose Komenskeho University-Prague, 2006 Master of Science in Defense Analysis–June 2010 Advisor: Erik Jansen, Department of Information Sciences Second Reader: Frank R. Giordano, Department Defense Analysis
Population-centric operations force modern Western, democratic states to deploy both police and military capacities. Globalization and under-governed states have transformed traditional security threats; now external security threats are generated by internal factors, and internal security threats are generated by external factors. Military organizations designed to address external security threats are ill suited to deal with internal security threats. Operations in Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq illustrate the need for police expeditionary capacities to fill in for indigenous institutions following regime overthrow. Modern state organizations do not produce the quality and quantity of deployable police needed in the time required. States have several options for addressing their police expeditionary capacities. This thesis assesses the basic options with mathematical modeling of the dynamics between military and police organizations. The thesis describes a hybrid option with best organizational practices, represented by gendarmerie-type organizations. Comparing their characteristics with the outcomes of the modeled game demonstrates that the hybrid option best captures the characteristics of the Nash point as the hypothetically optimal objective of the arbitration process; it thus represents a suitable and sustainable organizational solution. The outcomes of the modeled game also suggest an arbitration process to consider the hybrid option.
KEYWORDS: Police Expeditionary Capacities, Counterinsurgency, Gendarmeries, Paramilitary Organizations, Executive Policing, Population Centric Operations, Mathematical Modeling, Game Theory, Interagency Cooperation, Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations, Irregular Warfare, Security Force Assistance
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A SOCIAL-MOVEMENT THEORY TYPOLOGY OF GANG VIOLENCE Joseph E. Long–Major, United States Army B.S., United States Military Academy, 1997 Master of Science in Defense Analysis–June 2010 Advisor: Doowan Lee, Department of Defense Analysis Second Reader: Frank R. Giordano, Department Defense Analysis
This thesis uses social-movement theory to describe the formation of street gangs and to account for their high levels of violence. By understanding street gangs as a social movement contributing to the gang cycle, it is hoped that communities and law enforcement will be able to adopt better strategies for breaking the cycle. Likewise, the study of street gangs serves as a laboratory for counterinsurgency operations overseas. By understanding the potential effects of repression on a population, future counterinsurgent operators will better understand the complex environment in which they serve. As demonstrated by the case studies of Salinas and Oakland, continued coercive repression and negative channeling are recipes for creating isolation within a community, leading to fragmentation and increased violence.
KEYWORDS: Social Movement Theory, Repression, Coercion, Negative Channeling, Gang Violence, Outreach Programs
THE NATURE OF INSURGENCY IN AFGHANISTAN AND REGIONAL POLITICS Zahid Nawaz Mann−Lieutenant Colonel, Pakistani Army B.S., Pakistan Military Academy-Kakul, 1986 M.A., University of Baluchistan, 2005 Master of Science in Defense Analysis–June 2010 Advisor: Anna Simons, Department of Defense Analysis Second Reader: Feroz Hassan Khan, Department of National Security Affairs
This study explores the Afghan imbroglio from two angles: understanding the peculiar nature of the insurgency faced by the U.S. and NATO, and the ongoing power politics and conflicting interests of Afghanistan’s neighbors and other important actors in the conflict. After nine years of bloody Afghan conflict, which has also engulfed neighboring nuclear-armed Pakistan, the U.S. is far from achieving its desired objectives in Afghanistan and the region. The U.S. strategy employed so far reflects serious deficiencies that encourage the insurgents to regroup for an organized resistance against the world’s mightiest military coalition. Two important factors generally ignored by many analysts are the impact of outstanding regional disputes and politics on the war, and the willingness of important actors in the conflict to help achieve its resolution. Due to the region’s geostrategic significance, major powers have conflicting economic and political interests beyond just fighting al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. By developing a better understanding of the nature of insurgency in Afghanistan and of the broader regional politics, the international community may yet find a respectable solution to an extremely complex situation in Afghanistan, a country surrounded by nuclear-armed rivals.
KEYWORDS: Pashtun Nationalism, Pashtunwali, Durand Line, Afghan Jihad, Afghan Taliban, Al-Qaeda, Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, FATA, South Asian Conflicts, Indian Cold-Start Strategy, Kashmir Dispute, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, U.S. AFPAK Strategy, Troop Surge, Reconciliation with Taliban, Operation Enduring Freedom, U.S.−Pakistan Relations, Nuclear Weapons of Pakistan, Counterinsurgency Strategy of Pakistan, Tehrik- e-Taliban Pakistan, TTP, Operation Rah-e-Raast, Operation Rah-e-Nejat, Drone Attacks, Central Asian Republics, CARs, Oil and Gas, The New Great Game, Interests of Iran, India, China and Russia in Afghanistan, Gwadar Port
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THE LOST CARAVAN: THE RISE AND FALL OF AL QAEDA IN IRAQ, 2003–2007 Sean M. McClure–Major, United States Army B.S., Houghton College, 1998 M.S., Troy University, 2007 Master of Science in Defense Analysis–June 2010 Advisor: Gordon H. McCormick, Department of Defense Analysis Second Reader: Heather S. Gregg, Department of Defense Analysis
In 2006, a coalition intelligence report was writing off portions of Iraq as being lost to the control of the U.S.-led coalition and the government of Iraq. Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)—a local manifestation of a transnational movement— was at its peak, while the U.S.-led coalition was attempting to remove itself from the Hobbesian violence raging throughout the country in the forms of a civil war and an insurgency. Yet, within a year, AQI was a mere shadow of its former self, rejected by the Sunni population and on the run, hounded by coalition forces. This thesis analyzes the many factors that contributed to AQI’s demise. Beginning with the premise that Iraq’s Sunnis and AQI developed along two distinctly different paths, this thesis traces AQI’s demise to disparate cultural and ideological differences. With this rift in place, additional factors widened the gap between the Sunni and AQI, further accelerating the group’s decline. A theory on insurgent/popular alignment is developed, offering insights into how insurgents build support with the population and how the U.S. special forces community can build popular support for unconventional warfare efforts as a third party to an insurgency.
KEYWORDS: Iraq War, Surge, Insurgency, AQI, Zarqawi, Baghdad, MNF-I, MNC-I, SOF, Islam, Tribalism, Sectarian Violence, Awakening, Sunni, Counterinsurgency, Insurgent, GWOT, Iraqi Freedom, Irregular Warfare, U.S. Army, Strategy, Repression, Terrorism, Legitimacy, ISI, Islam, Petraeus
STRATEGIC UTILIZATION OF NORWEGIAN SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES Kjetil Mellingen–Lieutenant Commander, Royal Norwegian Navy Master of Science in Defense Analysis–June 2010 Master of Science in Information Operations–June 2010 Advisor: Kalev I. Sepp, Department of Defense Analysis Second Reader: David C. Tucker, Department of Defense Analysis
Norwegian special-operations forces (NORSOF) are national strategic assets that require certain conditions in order to optimize their strategic utilization. Based on the 2008 NATO SOF Study, and case studies of “lessons learned” from the creation of the Canadian Polish special-operations commands, a “world-class SOF” for Norway requires a national-level joint SOF command. This command can provide coherent, long-term stewardship, authority, and direction over all aspects of Norwegian special operations. Evaluating governing documents and policy, Norway’s relationship with NATO, the security environment, and different types of national SOF leadership, this thesis recommends organizational changes to optimize the strategic utilization of NORSOF.
KEYWORDS: Norway, Norwegian, Special Operations, Special Operations Forces, SOF, Information Operations, Psychological Operations, PSYOP, PSYOPS, Computer Network Operations, CNO, Deception, MILDEC, NORSOF, Strategic Assets, Forsvarets Spesialkommando, FSK, Hærens Jegerkommando, HJK, NORASOC, Marinejegerkommandoen, MJK, NORNAVSOC, 137 Luftving, 137 Air Wing, Canada, CANSOF, CANSOFCOM, Poland, POLSOF, POLSOCOM, NATO SOF Study
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TERRORIST NETWORKS, MONEY LAUNDERING SCHEMES, AND NATION STABILITY Bryan Mott–Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., Old Dominion University, 2002 Master of Science in Defense Analysis–June 2010 Advisor: Doowan Lee, Department of Defense Analysis Second Reader: Marcos Berger, Department of Defense Analysis
The purpose of this thesis is to provide the audience with a perspective regarding the evolution of circumstances that lead to the formation of terrorist networks, organized crime, illicit activities, etc., and to present how these criminals utilize money-laundering schemes to further their positions in society from a socioeconomic perspective. This paper discusses how terrorists and organized crime utilize weak nation-state infrastructures to capitalize on money- laundering schemes; thereby using the debilitating effects of financial crimes to keep nation-state institutions in a perpetual condition of instability. The ultimate aim of these criminal/illicit behavior and activities is to create, refine, and execute more efficient ways to further their respective cause, placing themselves in positions that yield even greater power over the systems they continually exploit. If left unchallenged, these criminals will continue to exploit the weaknesses of the nation-state infrastructures to gain and maintain a decisive advantage over society at large.
KEYWORDS: Terrorist Networks, Organized Crime, Illicit Activities, Money Laundering, Financial Crimes, Nation-State, Exploit, Infrastructures
STRUCTURING NAVAL SPECIAL WARFARE’S LEAD CHIEF PETTY OFFICER’S COMBAT LEADERSHIP COURSE David F. Nash–Lieutenant, United States Navy B.A., Virginia Military Institute, 1998 Master of Science in Defense Analysis–June 2010 Advisor: Doowan Lee, Department of Defense Analysis Second Reader: Nancy Roberts, Department of Defense Analysis
Naval special warfare (NSW) does not currently have a professional military-education program for the enlisted community. There have been courses developed by the U.S. Navy, which all NSW enlisted members are required to attend in order to progress in rank, but there are no courses specifically designed to increase the tactical and operational effectiveness of the enlisted sea, air, and land (SEAL) community. Experience gained through the current wars shows few deficiencies in our way of battle, and there is an increasing interest in NSW to create programs designed for NSW by NSW in order to maximize the enlisted community’s professionalism and capabilities on the battlefield. With the current demands on the NSW community and the increased pressure to increase its ranks, the development of SEALs must be a priority, and it must be a continuous process in order to maintain the quality of the force. Through analysis of a survey of naval special warfare officers and enlisted, this thesis attempts to determine what educational topics are critical for SEAL chief petty officers. The results of this thesis will help determine the focus of the recently introduced lead chief petty officer’s combat-leadership course.
KEYWORDS: Naval Special Warfare, NSW, SEAL, Professional Military Education
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MASTER OF SCIENCE IN ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING
MODELING AND DEMONSTRATING REGENERATIVE BRAKING OF A SQUIRREL-CAGE INDUCTION MOTOR WITH VARIOUS DECELERATION RATES USING V BY F CONTROL Billy J. Nytko–Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., University of Nevada-Las Vegas, 2000 M.E.M., Old Dominion University, 2007 Master of Science in Electrical Engineering–June 2010 Advisors: Alexander Julian, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Roberto Cristi, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Currently, the world’s predicament regarding fuel shortages affects the daily activities of nations and directly affects national security. The concept of starving an aggressive nation of resources, in particular fuel, is a war tactic that is effective in preventing the aggressor from accomplishing objectives. This was proven in World War II. National security is affected because shortages leave nations defenseless against invaders. Warfare methodologies will change drastically to accommodate the inability to use fossil-fueled assets unless alternative energy sources are found. The focus of this research is to use computer software and electrical hardware available to the Naval Postgraduate School to model regenerative braking to support energy conservation technologies and to improve the efficiencies within the United States Navy (USN). The goal of this research is to demonstrate regenerative braking during the deceleration of an induction motor and analyze various aspects during the braking process. This will help in the further development of the “all electric ship” by exploring methods to increase its longevity, while improving the efficiency of energy recovery technology. The USN will realize a degree of freedom from fossil fuel and will be capable of employing future, more versatile energy-recovery systems for naval base infrastructure.
KEYWORDS: Regenerative Braking, Squirrel Cage Induction Motor, Theory of Induction Motors, Field Programmable Gated Array, FPGA
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MASTER OF SCIENCE IN ENGINEERING ACOUSTICS
EVENT-DRIVEN SIMULATION AND ANALYSIS OF AN UNDERWATER, ACOUSTIC LOCAL AREA NETWORK Meng Chong Goh–Senior Engineer, Republic of Singapore Navy B.S., University of London, 2003 Master of Science in Engineering Acoustics–June 2010 Advisor: Joseph A. Rice, Department of Physics
“Seastar” is an underwater local-area-network concept involving high-frequency acoustic modems sending large volumes of data from a distributed set of peripheral sensor nodes to a centralized node for data fusion. The notional operating range of the acoustic modems used is 500m. This research considers four candidate Seastar network protocols: Time division multiple access (TDMA) polling with and without selective automatic repeat request (SRQ), and TDMA token ring with and without SRQ. The number of peripheral nodes, the layout of the nodes, and the noise level of the environment are modeled and evaluated according to performance metrics, including data throughput, communications latency, and packet error rate. It is determined that in a low-noise environment, the token ring with SRQ protocol delivers the most data throughput with the minimum number of dropped packets, while in high-noise conditions, polling with SRQ is preferred. In addition, if data throughput is not a priority, polling with SRQ is advantageous. Therefore, it is recommended that a switch be implemented for adaptively selecting the network protocol depending on the prevailing noise conditions and the critical performance metrics.
KEYWORDS: Communications Network, Sensor Network, Acoustic Communications, Undersea Sensors, Simulation, Seastar, Seaweb
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MASTER OF SCIENCE IN HUMAN SYSTEMS INTEGRATION
THE DEVELOPMENT AND INITIAL EVALUATION OF THE HUMAN READINESS-LEVEL FRAMEWORK Eric L. Phillips–Major, United States Air Force B.S., University of Southern Mississippi, 2000 M.S., Mississippi State University, 2008 Master of Science in Human Systems Integration–June 2010 Advisors: LCDR Paul E. O’Connor, USN, Department of Operations Research Hector M. Acosta, DoD Civilian, United States Air Force Second Reader: Michael E. McCauley, Department of Operations Research
Proper measurement and management is necessary to effectively translate capability needs and technology opportunities into stable, affordable, and well-managed acquisition programs. The technology readiness level (TRL) has proven to be the tool and process of choice for assessing the maturity of developing technologies within the Department of Defense (DoD). Yet, the TRL has proven incapable of consistently capturing the human-related aspects of technology development and their association with technology readiness. This thesis describes the initial development and evaluation of the human readiness level (HRL). The purpose of the HRL framework is to complement TRLs in program risk-management structures within the Integrated Defense Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics (IDAT&L) lifecycle management system. Further development and evaluation of the HRL framework is required beyond what is carried out as part of this thesis. However, the initial framework takes that first step towards providing acquisition professionals with a comprehensive guide that ensures human-centric priorities are addressed throughout all phases and milestones of defense acquisition.
KEYWORDS: Human Systems Integration, Human Readiness Level, Technology Readiness Level, Human View, Defense Acquisition
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MASTER OF SCIENCE IN INFORMATION OPERATIONS
STRATEGIC UTILIZATION OF NORWEGIAN SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES Kjetil Mellingen–Lieutenant Commander, Royal Norwegian Navy Master of Science in Defense Analysis–June 2010 Master of Science in Information Operations–June 2010 Advisor: Kalev I. Sepp, Department of Defense Analysis Second Reader: David C. Tucker, Department of Defense Analysis
Norwegian Special Operations Forces (NORSOF) are national strategic assets that require certain conditions in order to optimize their strategic utilization. Based on the 2008 NATO SOF Study, and case studies of “lessons learned” from the creation of the Canadian Special Operations Forces Command and the Polish Special Operations Command, a “world-class SOF” for Norway requires a national-level joint SOF command. This command can provide coherent, long-term stewardship, authority, and direction over all aspects of Norwegian special operations. Evaluating governing documents and policy, Norway’s relationship with NATO, the security environment, and different types of national SOF leadership, this thesis recommends organizational changes to optimize the strategic utilization of NORSOF.
KEYWORDS: Norway, Norwegian, Special Operations, Special Operations Forces, SOF, Information Operations, Psychological Operations, PSYOP, PSYOPS, Computer Network Operations, CNO, Deception, MILDEC, NORSOF, Strategic Assets, Forsvarets Spesialkommando, FSK, Hærens Jegerkommando, HJK, NORASOC, Marinejegerkommandoen, MJK, NORNAVSOC, 137 Luftving, 137 Air Wing, Canada, CANSOF, CANSOFCOM, Poland, POLSOF, POLSOCOM, NATO SOF Study
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MASTER OF SCIENCE IN MANAGEMENT
BATTERIES ON THE BATTLEFIELD: DEVELOPING A METHODOLOGY TO ESTIMATE THE FULLY BURDENED COST OF BATTERIES IN THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Anthony E. Hughley–Major, United States Army B.S., United States Military Academy, 1998 Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Mark R. McClellan–Major, United States Army B.S., United States Military Academy, 2001 Master of Business Administration–June 2010 Troy O. Kiper–Major, United States Marine Corps B.A., Rice University, 1996 M.A., Central Michigan University, 2001 Master of Science in Management–June 2010 Advisors: Daniel A. Nussbaum, Department of Operations Research Bryan J. Hudgens, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Keenan D. Yoho, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
According to Department of Defense and Secretary of the Navy instructions, acquisition decisions should be based on analysis that considers both the costs and benefits of different courses of action. A recent change to DoD Instruction (DODI) 5000.02, the DoD’s regulations on the acquisition of new systems, specifically calls for its agencies to consider the fully burdened energy costs in all trade-offs involving costs and benefits. Defense ground, air, and maritime platforms, as well as communications and network systems, all use a variety of renewable and disposable energy sources. Past analyses conducted by the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Cost and Economics (ODASA-CE) and the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics (OUSD [AT&L]) have developed methodologies to calculate the fully burdened cost of fuel as delivered energy in defense systems. Whereas these previous studies did not consider other energy sources, such as batteries, this thesis contributes to the DoD area of knowledge in estimating the lifecycle costs of systems by developing a methodology to estimate the fully burdened cost of batteries.
KEYWORDS: Lifecycle Cost Estimating, Battery Acquisition, Delivered Energy, Fully Burdened Costs, Fully Burdened Cost of Fuel, Fully Burdened Cost of Water, Fully Burdened Cost of Batteries, Analysis of Alternatives, Tradespace, Capability Development Document, Battery
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MASTER OF SCIENCE IN MECHANICAL ENGINEERING
A HYDROSTATIC AND HYDRODYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF A LENGTHENED DDG-51 DESTROYER MODIFIED REPEAT Justin C. Hlavin–Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., Virginia Tech, 2003 Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering–June 2010 Advisors: Fotis Papoulias, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Clifford Whitcomb, Department of Systems Engineering
The purpose of this thesis is to determine the feasibility of lengthening the current DDG-51 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and the resulting effects to the hydrostatics and hydrodynamics. A modified repeat of a current, proven ship design would offer a more cost-effective solution for the acquisition of ships to reach the U.S. Navy goal of a 313-ship fleet in the thirty-year shipbuilding plan. An analysis is performed to determine a proposed length that would be added to the ship at the parallel midbody. The current DDG-51 hull form is compared to this lengthened version, and key hydrostatic and hydrodynamic characteristics are analyzed. The result is a ship that would be able to offer increased mission capability with increased weight and electrical power margins. This modified repeat would also offer potential cost savings as compared to designing a completely new surface combatant.
KEYWORDS: Hydrostatics, Hydrodynamics, DDG-51
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MASTER OF SCIENCE IN METEOROLOGY AND PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY
INCORPORATING ENSEMBLE-BASED PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS INTO A CAMPAIGN SIMULATION IN THE WEATHER IMPACT ASSESSMENT TOOL Jeffrey M. Palmer–Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., United States Naval Academy, 2001 Master of Science in Meteorology and Physical Oceanography–June 2010 Advisor: CDR Rebecca Stone, USN, Department of Oceanography Second Reader: Philip Durkee, Department of Meteorology
Stochastic (probabilistic) forecasting techniques give forecasters a means to transmit information about certainty and a range of forecast possibilities to operational decision-makers. Previous studies have shown value in probabilistic forecasting through a series of independent, hypothetical events or through comparative period forecasts. This thesis attempts to demonstrate the value of stochastic forecasting through a series of operational events in the context of a strike warfare campaign in the Weather Impact Assessment Tool (WIAT), a campaign simulator. Simulated ensemble members and probability files are created to study six weather parameters and their impacts on various strike warfare missions. Tests are run comparing deterministic and stochastic forecasts, incorporating varying levels of forecast error and sampled probability thresholds. Metrics within and external to WIAT are employed to analyze the results of the forecasting strategies. Constraints in WIAT’s structure and campaign modeling yield results that suggest, but do not definitively prove, enhanced campaign performance as a result of incorporating probabilistic forecasting. Programming adjustments to WIAT are recommended in order to provide a higher-quality test bed for future studies of both deterministic and stochastic forecasting techniques.
KEYWORDS: Stochastic Forecasting, Probabilistic Forecasting, Operational Simulation
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MASTER OF SCIENCE IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH
A SURVIVABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE TRANSFORMABLE CRAFT IN AN OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT Huntley J. Bodden–Major, United States Marine Corps B.S., University of Florida, 1998 M.S., University of Maryland University College, 2005 Master of Science in Operations Research–June 2010 Advisor: Gary E. Horne, Department of Operations Research Second Reader: Thomas W. Lucas, Department of Operations Research
Seabasing is developing as a dominant concept for military operations in the 21st century and will be at the core of joint operations abroad. To enable an effective seabase, the Office of Naval Research is leading an effort to design and develop a seabase connector known as the transformable craft (T-craft). The T-craft is intended to provide “game changing capabilities” for seabasing operations—substantially outperforming any seabase connector in the Navy’s current inventory. Through the use of simulation, state-of-the-art design of experiments, and advanced data analysis, over 430,000 seabasing missions are modeled and analyzed varying the number of T-craft, its capabilities (e.g., speed), the types of weapon systems it carries, its tactics, the escort mixes, and the threat level to determine what combinations obtain the highest survivability and throughput rate for the T-craft. As a result of the research and analysis, the following conclusions are drawn: 1) the presence of escorts (at least two LCSs in the scenarios examined) is critical when a threat exists; 2) the operating speed of the T-craft must be determined by the operating capabilities of the escorts; and 3) the shoreline threat remains a critical area in ensuring T-craft survivability.
KEYWORDS: Transformable Craft, T-Craft, Sea Base, Sea Base Connector
A DYNAMIC MODEL FOR POLITICAL STAKEHOLDERS: FORECASTING THE ACTIONS AND RELATIONSHIPS OF LEBANESE HIZBULLAH WITH MARKOV DECISION PROCESSES Aaron D. Burciaga–Captain, United States Marine Corps B.S., United States Naval Academy, 2003 Master of Science in Operations Research–June 2010 Advisors: Moshe Kress, Department of Operations Research Roberto Szechtman, Department of Operations Research Second Reader: Michael P. Atkinson, Department of Operations Research
This thesis develops a decision theoretic model rooted in Markov decision-process theory to provide military and diplomatic decision makers with insights regarding the interests and potential strategies of Lebanese Hizbullah. State trees are used to capture the interests and actions of Lebanese Hizbullah and other relevant countries, political organizations, or groups. These state trees are used to design an influence diagram that maps the interdependencies of all interests, actions, and players. A Visual Basic for Applications tool is developed for the user to generate the sets of data necessary to populate and solve the model’s influence diagram. The actions and interests of Lebanese Hizbullah, over time, in the influence diagram constitute a dynamic Bayesian network. At each stage of this dynamic process, Lebanese Hizbullah is characterized by a state and a set of feasible actions that, depending on the actions taken, determine the transition into a new state of the system. This dynamic dependency-bearing model identifies the most important interests, priorities, and capabilities of Lebanese Hizbullah. The resulting assessment of Lebanese Hizbullah’s influence, investment, capabilities, and actions reveal key cause-and-effect relationships. The utility of such insights may enable decision makers to determine material variables and best courses-of-action to enhance their strategic decision-making capabilities.
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KEYWORDS: Lebanese Hizbullah, Lebanese Diaspora, Lebanon, Markov Decision Process, Dynamic Bayesian Network, Hidden Markov Models, Decision Theory, State Tree, State Tree, Influence Diagram, GeNIe, Stakeholder, State Space, Rational Actor, Action, Interest, Distribution, Forecast
USING EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN AND DATA ANALYSIS TO STUDY THE ENLISTED SPECIALTY MODEL FOR THE U.S. ARMY G1 Robert W. Erdman–Major, United States Army B.S., University of Oregon, 2000 Master of Science in Operations Research–June 2010 Advisor: Rachel T. Johnson, Department of Operations Research Second Reader: Thomas W. Lucas, Department of Operations Research
Every month the U.S. Army G1 uses an Enlisted Specialty (ES) model consisting of a simulation and an optimization to forecast the Army’s enlisted manpower program by Military Occupational Specialty and grade. The model is responsible for operating a 30.64 billion-dollar manpower program that currently manages 460,000 enlisted Soldiers. The research in this thesis studies the objective function coefficients associated with decision variables in the ES optimization model. Experimental design and analysis techniques are used to study how changes in the coefficients affect the assignment of current enlisted Soldiers to vacant positions in the Army. Results of the thesis show that by adjusting eight of the coefficients in the optimization model, the deviation between authorizations and inventory can be reduced by 14%. This improves the U.S. Army’s force structure alignment and ensures that the Army is ready to fight the nation’s wars.
KEYWORDS: Experiments, Linear Programming, Plackett-Burman Design, D-Optimal Latin Hypercube
MODELING DECISION-MAKING LOGIC: A CASE STUDY OF LEBANESE HEZBOLLAH Ronald A. Garrick–Captain, United States Marine Corps B.S., Ohio State University, 2004 Master of Science in Operations Research–June 2010 Advisors: Roberto Szechtman, Department of Operations Research Michael P. Atkinson, Department of Operations Research Second Reader: Moshe Kress, Department of Operations Research
This research develops a methodology to analyze stakeholder decision logic in dynamic, multi-agent political systems. The backdrop for this study is Lebanese Hezbollah decision making in a system including Iran, Syria, Israel, and the U.S. A thorough historical review of the Middle East provides the foundation for accurate definition of each stakeholder’s interests and feasible actions. Additionally, the historical review provides the basis for specifying model relationships and initial, notional probability data to inform the model. A conceptual model is then developed representing the system using influence diagrams. This conceptual model is adapted to enable implementation of two models, one for each research question posed by the Unified Combatant Command. To solve these models, a Java application is developed and described in detail. The application provides the user with the capability to manipulate the model and inputs to suit their analytic needs and to evaluate the efficacy of model variables. User interface and convenient model diagnostics, together, provide the Unified Combatant Command with the desired decision-support complement to their current analytic techniques. Finally, several important insights are presented relating to modeling methodology and to the specific decision making logic of Hezbollah and other stakeholders in this system.
KEYWORDS: Decision Analysis, Systems Analysis, Influence Diagram, Multi Agent, MAID, Hezbollah, Hizbullah, Lebanese, Lebanon, Israel, Iran, Syria, Genie, Imad Mughniyah, Nuclear, Iran, Middle East, Temporal, Dynamic Programming, Backward Induction, Political Stakeholders, Political Actors, Decision Support, Decision Logic, Decision Forecast
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SUPPORTING MARINE CORPS ENHANCED COMPANY OPERATIONS: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS Daniel S. Hinkson–Captain, United States Marine Corps B.S., University of Arizona, 2003 Master of Science in Operations Research–June 2010 Advisor: Thomas W. Lucas, Department of Operations Research Second Reader: James A. Evans, Marine Corps Combat Development Command
This research explores the capability requirements for the employment of a Marine Rifle Company organized to conduct Enhanced Company Operations (ECO). It uses a simulation model, built in an agent-based simulation tool called MANA, to evaluate the logistical impact of ECO on a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU). ECO involves reorganizing and augmenting the traditional rifle company in a manner that contributes to “enhanced” command and control, intelligence, logistics, and fires capabilities. The end-state is to develop the company’s ability to become the base maneuver element of the Marine Air-Ground Task Force, a role traditionally held by the infantry battalion. This research uses a robust design-of-experiments method called the Nearly Orthogonal Latin Hypercube to vary a set of design factors in an efficient manner, culminating in over 5,460 simulated missions. Statistical results indicate that it is possible to support an enhanced company with current MEU assets, and that resupply responsiveness is more important than the unit’s distance to the seabase. This research also confirms the validity of investing in the MV-22, due to the increased capabilities it brings to the MEU commander.
KEYWORDS: Enhanced Company Operations, ECO, Distributed Operations, DO, Enhanced MAGTF Operations, EMO, MANA, Seabasing, Marine, Logistics, Agent-Based Model, Data Farming, Nearly Orthogonal Latin Hypercube, Simulation, Design of Experiments
F/A-18(A-D) WING ROOT FATIGUE LIFE EXPENDED (FLE) PREDICTION WITHOUT THE USE OF STRAIN GAGE DATA Jason M. Lindauer–Captain, United States Marine Corps B.S., University of Colorado-Boulder, 2004 Master of Science in Operations Research–June 2010 Advisor: Samuel E. Buttrey, Department of Operations Research Second Reader: Lyn R. Whitaker, Department of Operations Research
U.S. Navy and Marine Corps F/A-18 aircraft are subject to two life-limiting metrics – actual flight hours and fatigue life expended (FLE). While flight hours can be mitigated, fatigue on the airframe cannot. The fatigue expended per flight varies based on the mission; it is recorded by seven strain gages throughout the airframe. Because strain gages are unmonitored systems, they are subject to drift and/or failure. Consequently, Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) accumulates approximately one month of strain gage data for each Navy and Marine Corps F/A-18 before analyzing the data for such anomalies. This results in a latency period of roughly six weeks between the mission being flown and the squadron receiving the FLE for that mission. This research identifies regression models by which to predict the NAVAIR-reported FLE using real-time metrics stored by the aircraft during flight, thereby eliminating the latency issue and allowing squadrons to better manage their aircraft.
KEYWORDS: F/A-18, Fatigue Life Expended, FLE, Linear Regression, Naval Air Systems Command, NAVAIR, Prediction, S-Plus, Strain Gage, Wing Root Fatigue
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AN ASSESSMENT OF THE OPERATIONAL REQUIREMENTS FOR THE TRANSFORMABLE CRAFT IN SEABASING MISSIONS Sebastian Scheibe–Major, German Army M.S., Federal Armed Forces University-Munich, 2002 Master of Science in Operations Research–June 2010 Advisor: Paul J. Sanchez, Department of Operations Research Second Reader: Eugene P. Paulo, Department of Systems Engineering
In 2005, Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) #05-020 called for research and development efforts to design the Transformable Craft (T-Craft), a transport craft that will create a “game changing” capability for the U.S. Navy’s seabasing concept. The T-Craft is intended to advance the concepts of operational maneuver from the sea and ship- to-objective maneuver. In this thesis, various T-Craft operational and performance requirements are examined using discrete-event simulation modeling, statistical design of experiments, and robust analysis techniques. The model is used to investigate the rates at which the T-Craft/seabase system, as specified in BAA #05-020, can deliver materiel to shore. Robust analysis is used to evaluate the impact of both operational and performance design choices for the T-Craft across a spectrum of conflict conditions. The result is a set of design and policy recommendations that are targeted towards achieving mission success in a broad variety of used scenarios.
KEYWORDS: Discrete-Event Model, Arena, Simulation, Nearly Orthogonal Latin Hypercube, NOLH, Design of Experiments, Robust Analysis, Transformable Craft, Seabasing Missions
A STUDY OF TRANSPORTATION AND ITS PLANNING RESOURCES IN THE GERMAN JOINT SUPPORT SERVICE Carsten Schulz–Commander, German Navy Master of Science in Operations Research–June 2010 Advisor: Susan M. Sanchez, Department of Operations Research Second Reader: MAJ Francisco Baez, USA, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Center–Monterey
Modeling and simulation provide an effective means by which to gain insight into the operational impact of different strategies. This research employs modeling and simulation to identify the significant factors for managing and allocating transportation assets in a humanitarian assistance scenario involving the German Joint Support Service. The U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) Analysis Center’s prototype Logistics Battle Command (LBC) Model is used for the exploration. The study outlines a methodology that draws on efficient experimental design and statistical analysis to determine which factors have the greatest affect on the overall performance of logistics operations. Some shortcomings in the LBC model are uncovered, but this study is able to provide limited insights about force structure and address how capability gaps and model shortcomings may be overcome.
KEYWORDS: Transportation, Logistics Battle Command, LBC, Simulation Analysis, Design of Experiments, DOE
A TWO-PERSON, ZERO-SUM, NETWORK-INTERDICTION GAME WITH MULTIPLE INSPECTOR TYPES Omur Unsal–Captain, Turkish Army B.S., Turkish Land Force Academy, 2001 Master of Science in Operations Research–June 2010 Advisor: R. Kevin Wood, Department of Operations Research Second Reader: Javier Salmeron, Department of Operations Research
This thesis extends the game-theoretic network-interdiction model of Washburn and Wood (1995) to handle multiple types of interdiction assets (e.g., aircraft, ground-based inspection teams), referred to here as “inspectors.” A single evader attempts to traverse a path between two vertices in a directed network while an interdictor, controlling inspectors of different types, attempts to detect the evader by assigning inspectors to edges in the network. Each edge has a known probability-of-detection if the evader traverses the edge when an inspector of a given type is present. The problem for the interdictor is to find a mixed inspector-to-edge assignment strategy that
54 OPERATIONS RESEARCH maximizes the average probability of detecting the evader, i.e., the “interdiction probability.” The problem for the evader is to find a mixed “path-selection strategy” that minimizes the interdiction probability. The problem is formulated as a two-person zero-sum game with a surrogate objective that evaluates the expected number of detections. That model is solved with a “direct solution procedure” and a “marginal-probability solution procedure.” On numerous test problems, both procedures correctly compute the expected number of detections, but the latter more often finds a solution that simultaneously optimizes interdiction probability. The latter procedure is also much faster and is therefore preferred.
KEYWORDS: Two-Person Zero-Sum Network-Interdiction Game, Game Theoretic Network Interdiction, Column Generation, Pure Inspection-Assignment Strategy, Inspector-to-Edge Assignment and Mixed Strategies, Marginal Probability, Cournet’s Simultaneous Play Game
ROBUST PARAMETER DESIGN FOR AGENT-BASED SIMULATION MODELS WITH APPLICATION IN A CULTURAL GEOGRAPHY MODEL Michael Wiedemann–Commander Junior Grade, German Navy M.E. Diploma, University of the Armed Forces-Munich, 1998 Master of Science in Operations Research–June 2010 Advisor: Rachel T. Johnson, Department of Operations Research Second Reader: MAJ Francisco Baez, USA, U.S. Army, Training and Doctrine Center Monterey
Robust parameter design (RPD), which has been extensively used in industrial and system design, is used in this thesis to determine where to set controllable factors to achieve the desired response in a social-dynamic-driven agent-based simulation model. Specifically, this thesis focuses on the agent-based cultural-geography model (CG) of the Helmand Province, Afghanistan, developed by the Training and Doctrine Center-Monterey. To the author’s knowledge, this thesis is the first application of RPD to an irregular warfare model that incorporates social behavior and population dynamics. Robust parameter settings for CG response are identified using a four-step experimental design and analysis methodology. Results of the developed and applied analysis and robustness study reveal important insights into the CG model. In addition to the robust parameter settings suggested by the analysis, one outcome of the simulation experiments is to illustrate a path that enables military decision-makers a method for investigating the population response for different courses of action within the irregular warfare theater.
KEYWORDS: Design of Experiments, Robust Parameter Design, Agent Based Models, TRAC, Design Methodology, Cultural Geography, Irregular Warfare
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MASTER OF SCIENCE IN PHYSICS
HIGH TERAHERTZ ABSORBING NANOSCALE METAL FILMS FOR FABRICATION OF MICROMECHANICAL BI-MATERIAL THZ SENSORS Christos Bolakis–Lieutenant Junior Grade, Hellenic Navy Master of Science in Physics–June 2010 Advisor: Gamani Karunasiri, Department of Physics Second Reader: Dragoslav Grbovic, Department of Physics
The terahertz (THz) region of the electromagnetic spectrum covers frequencies ranging from about 100 GHz to 10 THz. This region of the spectrum has not been fully utilized due to the lack of compact and efficient sources, as well as detectors. The aim of the present research is to explore the use of thin metal films as high THz absorbing materials and to determine their THz absorbing characteristics both analytically and experimentally. The films are to be used in bi-material-based suspended structures, which sense minute changes in temperature due to THz absorption via the difference in thermal expansion coefficients. The amount of deformation can be measured by reflecting a light beam from the pixel structure to determine the THz power incident on it. During the initial phase, design and fabrication of efficient THz absorbing multi-layer stack are carried out. The stack consists of a dielectric Bragg reflector and a metal film. The Bragg reflector serves to maximize reflection in the visible spectral range (required by the readout scheme), while the metal serves to provide strong absorption of THz radiation. The absorption characteristics of the stack are simulated using COMSOL finite element modeling; theoretical analysis is performed using Fresnel’s equations and is compared with the corresponding experimental results. The measured absorption characteristics of the stack agree well with the analysis. In addition, the thickness of the metal film is optimized for maximizing the THz absorption of the stack.
KEYWORDS: Bi-Material Pixel, Terahertz Imaging, Deformation, Multi-Layer Stack, Terahertz Absorption, Dielectric Bragg Reflector, COMSOL Finite Element Modeling, Fresnel’s Equations, Dielectric Bragg Reflector, FTIR Spectroscopy, Maximizing the THz Absorption
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MASTER OF SCIENCE IN PROGRAM MANAGEMENT
THE NATIONAL SECURITY PERSONNEL SYSTEM (NSPS): AN ANALYSIS OF KEY STAKEHOLDERS’ PERCEPTIONS DURING THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE’S IMPLEMENTATION OF NSPS James Alexander–DoD Civilian Master of Science in Program Management–June 2010 Brian Barlow–DoD Civilian Master of Science in Program Management–June 2010 Doug Haskin–DoD Civilian Master of Science in Program Management–June 2010 Advisors: Douglas A. Brook, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy John Dillard, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
The objective of this project is to examine the attitudes and perceptions of key stakeholders during the Department of Defense’s (DoD) implementation of the National Security Personnel System (NSPS). This analysis is aligned with NSPS Key Performance Parameters (KPPs). Leveraging data from the DoD NSPS office, DMDC, OPM survey data, and other independent reports, this project addresses the following questions: what are the key stakeholders’ attitudes and perceptions towards DoD’s implementation of NSPS, as viewed through the framework of the NSPS KPPs; and what do these perceptions indicate about DoD meeting the NSPS KPPs? NSPS statistics are gathered and analyzed to support the analysis, conclusions, and recommendations. The conclusions include identification of the prevailing attitudes and perceptions during NSPS implementation, with emphasis on lessons learned and recommendations of best practices, which can be applied to future attempts at implementation of a pay-for-performance personnel system in a public organization.
KEYWORDS: The National Security Personnel System, Communication, Trust, Credibility, Change Implementation, Supervisor Employee Relations
A TEST PLAN FRAMEWORK FOR CROSS-DOMAIN SOLUTION DEVICES Peter Byrd–DoD Civilian Master of Science in Program Management–June 2010 Advisors: Bradley R. Naegle, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Michael W. Boudreau, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
The Department of Defense (DoD) envisions and is currently developing a wide array of system-of-systems and net- centric warfighting systems that interconnect with many platforms and information repositories designed to give warfighters information superiority over any adversary. It is critical that information and data passing through and between these systems is secure against any threat or attempt to access, manipulate, or change the data in any way. In addition, these systems are beginning to interconnect with other federal systems outside the purview of the DoD. The DoD and other federal entities have developed differing certification processes and differing test and evaluation requirements to support the certification process. As the need for cross-domain interconnectivity increases, the need for more standardized certification test and evaluation processes becomes apparent.
KEYWORDS: CDS, CT&E, NSA, NIST, RDAC
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THE UNITED STATES ARMY LAND MOBILE RADIO COMMUNICATION SYSTEM: IMPACTS OF INFORMATION ASSURANCE ON COMMERCIAL, OFF-THE-SHELF SYSTEMS William D. Chaney–DoD Civilian Master of Science in Program Management–June 2010 Mark Corzine–DoD Civilian Master of Science in Program Management–June 2010 Adrianne L. Paolercio–DoD Civilian Master of Science in Program Management–June 2010 Advisor: Michael W. Boudreau, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy Second Readers: Katrina Willins, Sypris Electronics, L.L.C., Nathan Smith, DoD Civilian, United States Army–Fort Monmouth, New Jersey
This research examines the technical, operational, and programmatic implementation of information assurance (IA) as it relates to the commercial, off-the-shelf Land Mobile Radio (LMR) Program within the U.S. Army. This project provides an overview of the LMR system and its capabilities and technical requirements, as well as IA processes and requirements. The project examines the technical aspects and impacts of implementing the IA requirements on the LMR system, with possible interoperability with the Global Information Grid. As a result of this project, the U.S. Army will have a better understanding of the impact of IA on fielded LMR systems and its future impact on critical communications.
KEYWORDS: Information Assurance, IA, Commercial-off-the-Shelf, COTS, Land Mobile Radio, LMR, DoD Information Assurance Certification and Accreditation Process, DIACAP, Association of Public Safety Communications Officials International 25, APCO 25, National Telecommunications and Information Administration, NTIA
AN ANALYSIS OF TECHNOLOGY TRANSITION WITHIN THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Donnie Tew–DoD Civilian Master of Science in Program Management–June 2010 Kevin Wallace–DoD Civilian Master of Science in Program Management–June 2010 Advisors: Karen Wood, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Charles Pickar, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy
Appropriate methods and the proper execution thereof are critical to the success of technology transition. A significant hurdle in this process is the phase in which the science and technology community is prepared to hand- off a technology that has not achieved a sufficiently high Technology Readiness Level, Manufacturing Readiness Level, or System Readiness Level for the engineering and manufacturing community. This analysis concentrates on three technology transition factors: Organization, Policy, and Metrics. Organizational transformation encompasses the recent expansion of technology transition groups and initiatives within the Department of Defense (DoD). Additionally, the overall mindset of cooperative development and open communication are detailed within the Organizational focal area. The Policy focal area delves into the various DoD technology-transition governing principles included in the DoD 5000, the Defense Acquisition Guidebook, and other governing documents. Lastly, the Technology Metrics focal area concentrates on the importance of technology maturation and how to qualitatively and objectively assess technologies. Thorough research is conducted on these areas to demonstrate the DoD’s recent efforts to bridge the gap and provide innovative solutions to the warfighter within a reduced timeframe. Additionally, a case study analysis is conducted on a Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency program, Boomerang, to highlight attributes of a successful technology transition.
KEYWORDS: Technology Transition, DARPA
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MASTER OF SCIENCE IN SPACE SYSTEMS OPERATIONS
MODELING LASER EFFECTS ON MULTI-JUNCTION SOLAR CELLS USING SILVACO ATLAS SOFTWARE FOR SPACECRAFT POWER-BEAMING APPLICATIONS Jamie E. VanDyke–Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., University of Missouri-Rolla, 2002 Master of Science in Space Systems Operations–June 2010 Advisor: Sherif Michael, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Second Reader: Alan D. Scott, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering
This thesis explores the possibility of power beaming from terrestrial sites to orbiting spacecraft. Solar cell annealing to repair radiation-damaged cells and power augmentation for satellites that are battery-limited are two of the possible uses for power beaming. A more complete understanding of the expected system response is obtained through modeling and simulation. A virtual wafer fabrication tool called Silvaco ATLAS is used to simulate a previously optimized InGaP/GaAs/Ge triple-junction solar cell’s response to a three-laser system. The software is used to determine the optimum wavelength for each layer of the cell, and then the intensity of the lasers is determined to achieve the same output of the cell as experienced under solar illumination, thereby replacing the sun. The original cell boasts 36.29% efficiency under solar illumination; by applying the laser system, the same cell operates at 51.15% efficiency. The approach and lessons learned can be applied to any solar cell design.
KEYWORDS: Solar Cell, Photovoltaic, Directed Energy, Power Beaming, Wireless Power Transfer, Multi- Junction, Laser, Silvaco, Modeling, Simulation
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MASTER OF SCIENCE IN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING
THE SYSTEMS INTEGRATION OF AUTONOMOUS-BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS TO CREATE A “MARITIME SMART ENVIRONMENT” FOR THE ENHANCEMENT OF MARITIME-DOMAIN AWARENESS Cledo L. Davis–Commander, United States Navy B.S., United States Naval Academy, 1994 Master of Science in Systems Engineering–June 2010 Advisors: Rachel E. Goshorn, Department of Systems Engineering Deborah E. Goshorn, Department of Information Sciences
Maritime-domain awareness (MDA) is a very challenging mission area in an ever-increasing, net-centric environment, which is inundated with data from many highly advanced, capable sensors and communication suites. With all these technological data collection and dissemination advances, the information available is just too voluminous for man alone to process and react to manually, sifting the “wheat from the chaff,” and be expected to accomplish effective operational decision-making regarding maritime threats to national security, as well as to international peace and trade on the high seas. This thesis addresses MDA Joint Integrating Concept capability gaps, MDA-003C and MDA-004C, for aggregating, analyzing, and displaying maritime information in order to understand the maritime environment to identify threats and predict activity within the maritime domain. Applying the systems engineering process, the concept, requirements analysis, architectures, and system design and validation description for a systems integration solution is presented. The proposed implementation entails integrating autonomous behavior-analysis capability that utilizes syntactical grammar-based spatial-temporal behavior classifications within existing net-centric MDA environments. This thesis describes the research conducted on a demonstrable proof-of-concept laboratory system, the Watchman Maritime Smart Environment System, whose representative architecture for specific autonomous behavior analysis implementation is provided.
KEYWORDS: Anomaly Detection, Artificial Intelligence, Automation, Behavior Analysis, Distributed Artificial Intelligence, Intelligence-Surveillance-Reconnaissance, Maritime Domain Awareness, Maritime Force Protection, Multi-Agent Systems, Network-Centric Operations, Network-Centric Systems Engineering, Network-Centric Warfare, Smart Sensor Networks, Systems Engineering, Systems Integration, System of Systems
THE APPLICABILITY OF DODAF TO THE CONVERSION OF A CRANE SHIP TO HOST A BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE TEST RADAR AND TELEMETRY SYSTEM Michael E. Lash–DoD Civilian B.S., North Georgia College, 1980 Master of Science in Systems Engineering–September 2009 Advisor: Charles N. Calvano, Department of Systems Engineering Second Reader: Clifford Whitcomb, Department of Systems Engineering
Currently, all Missile Defense Agency (MDA) instrumentation radars are land-based at the Reagan Test Site (RTS) in the Marshall Islands and the Pacific Missile Range Facility (PMRF) on the Hawaiian island of Kauai. The dependency on land-based radars produces significant gaps in radar coverage of planned ballistic missile defense system (BMDS) tests. The S.S. Beaver State is a former cargo ship that was converted to a crane ship. The purpose of a crane ship is to unload/load other ships at ports with inadequate facilities. When the Beaver State was converted to a crane ship, three large cranes were installed. The size of the ship and generators make the Beaver State suitable to host the first X-Band Test Radar (XTR-1) and the second Transportable Telemetry System (TTS-2). There are five major efforts in the conversion process: 1) ship re-activation; 2) modification of the ship to host the
63 SYSTEMS ENGINEERING primary sensors, the adjunct systems, and the respective operators; 3) installation and integration of the primary sensors and adjunct systems; 4) development, installation, and certification of the communications system; and 5) Coast Guard certification. This thesis reviews the history of the modification design and communications system development aspects of this conversion process, reviews the Department of Defense Architectural Framework (DoDAF), assesses the applicability of DoDAF to the Beaver State conversion process, and suggests opportunities for improvement of similar MDA test asset-development programs.
KEYWORDS: Department of Defense Architectural Framework, DoDAF, Systems View, Operational View, Missile Defense
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MASTER OF SCIENCE IN SYSTEMS ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT
USING KILL-CHAIN ANALYSIS TO DEVELOP SURFACE SHIP CONOPS TO DEFEND AGAINST ANTI-SHIP CRUISE MISSILES Roy M. Smith–DoD Civilian B.S., University of Washington, 1979 Master of Science in Systems Engineering Management–June 2010 Advisor: J. Michael Green, Department of Systems Engineering Second Reader: David A. Hart, Department of Systems Engineering
The premise of this thesis is that a kill chain analysis can be used to ascertain survivability probabilities that can be used to analyze ship vulnerabilities to the anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) problem. Using the kill chain framework, two approaches are examined. The kill chain, as perceived by the eyes and sensors of the ASCM, is used for the analysis. From this perspective, the ASCM encounters the formidable layered-defense of a target ship, including hard kill and soft kill measures. The first analysis uses a time-line framework to calculate potential engagements and from this, compute the likely probability of success. The second approach uses decision tree software to analyze a single ASCM versus target-ship surface-to-air missile encounter using a Monte Carlo simulation with derived probabilities of success and failure. This paper evaluates eighteen ASCMs available in the world today and examines their probability of success against a generic ship that has a defensive suite similar to current Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. A key finding is that for ASCMs to be successful, they should fly lower and faster and incorporate soft kill measures. Hence, future ship builders need to be prepared to counter more sophisticated threats when designing warships.
KEYWORDS: Anti-Ship Cruise Missile, ASCM, Survivability, Probability, Kill Chain, Monte Carlo, Decision Tree, Surface to Air Missile, Close in Weapon System, Countermeasures
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MASTER OF ARTS
Security Studies
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MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES
AMERICAN HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE ARABIAN GULF: A FORCE FOR LIBERALIZATION Christian J. Davis–Lieutenant, United States Navy B.A., University of South Florida, 1990 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisor: Robert Looney, Department of National Security Affairs Second Reader: Abbas Kadhim, Department of National Security Affairs
The proliferation of American branch campuses in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that provide identical educational plans and degrees as their parent institutions offers a promising method of liberalizing these societies by advancing research and critical thinking. Networks will be made between students and academics, allowing for the transmission of ideas and the promotion of multiculturalism and tolerance. The host countries will establish superior higher educational systems, which will enable these societies to better integrate into the global knowledge economy and diversify their economies away from the rentier model. Education City in Qatar and Dubai International Academic City in the UAE are models to emulate to quickly establish world-class education hubs that will improve human development and lay the foundation for new industries in the evolving knowledge economy. Indigenous higher education systems have proven inept at training their students for the realities of the evolving global economy, which has hindered the evolution of competitive industries in the MENA region. American branch campuses offer the best way to advance American policy in the region and further American national interests through peaceful means.
KEYWORDS: Arabian Gulf, Branch Campus, Higher Education, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, UAE
THEATER AND CULTURAL DIPLOMACY: THE ROLE OF THE PERFORMING ARTS IN HOW NATIONS DEAL WITH EACH OTHER Ashley M. DeCarli–DoD Civilian B.A., California State University-Chico, 2004 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisor: Donald Abenheim, Department of National Security Affairs Second Reader: Richard Hoffman, Center for Civil–Military Relations
The role of culture in foreign and security relations has advanced to become more prominent in the present, and it demands further analysis and reflection by those responsible for making policy and strategy. At the same time, an understanding of this vital term as a feature of society and state suffers from a blinkered perspective of culture. Many observers neither understand the past and present role of culture in society and politics, nor have much interest in culture in the form of high culture, especially in the performing arts (other than at an unsophisticated level). Further, the psychological impact of war and terrorism and economic upheaval channels sentiments of reason away from religion and culture and into such phenomena as escapism or political resignation. Or the impact of war channels the desire for symbols, narrative, metaphors, and an interpretation of politics and society into extremism that camouflages itself in the realm of culture, with damaging effect for state and society on the western, liberal, and tolerant model. As a result, people learn about cultures though a distorted lens of fear, which leads them to an unconscious habit of profiling individuals into cultural stereotypes or images of the enemy reflecting cultural ideas.
KEYWORDS: Theatre, Culture, Europe, France, Germany, England, United Kingdom, Italy, Ireland, United States, National Policy, Art, Foreign Relations, Suppression, Promotion, Multicultural, Aesthetic
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THE MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF JOB DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN IN RUSSIA Lisa A. Deitle–Major, United States Marine Corps B.A., Mount Olive College, 1999 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisor: Robert Looney, Department of National Security Affairs Second Reader: James Moltz, Department of National Security Affairs
This thesis contends that the government of the Russian Federation will benefit more from policies that end job discrimination against women than policies aimed at trying to get women to embrace their traditional gender role as wife and mother in hopes that it will improve fertility rates. While Russia is enduring concurrent demographic and economic crises, there are trade-offs between empowering women with equal job opportunity and high fertility rates, usually referred to as the Demographic-Economic Paradox. While fertility rates are an important aspect of population growth, evidence indicates that the high mortality rate is the more detrimental to Russia’s population-growth rates. Thus, government policies to curb needless deaths will be more beneficial for the Russian population overall than attempts to revitalize traditional gender roles to increase fertility rates, especially in a depressed economic environment. Moreover, as the sex ratio of women to men increases, changes in the social and economic structure are inevitable.
KEYWORDS: Russian Economic Policy, Demographic Crisis, Job Discrimination, Russian Women, Macroeconomics, Demographic-Economic Paradox
PROSTITUTION AS A POSSIBLE FUNDING MECHANISM FOR TERRORISM Richard J. DiGiacomo– DoD Civilian B.A., Fordham University, 1989 J.D., Duquesne University School of Law, 1999 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisor: Anders Strindberg, DoD Contractor Second Reader: Christopher Bellavita, DoD Contractor
An essential component of defeating terrorists is targeting their financing and fundraising mechanisms. Successfully targeting terrorist financing may disrupt an organization’s existence, prevent an attack, or reduce the harm produced by an attack. As a result of these efforts, al Qaeda faces financial challenges they have not experienced in a decade. Whether in response to these efforts or as a deliberate strategic shift, terrorist organizations have been extremely adaptive and creative in adjusting their fundraising efforts; specifically turning to criminal enterprises. While there is still debate regarding the level of cooperation between criminal and terrorist organizations, it is generally agreed that terrorist organizations and their affiliates are increasingly relying on criminal enterprises to fund their operations. This thesis examines whether prostitution is funding terrorism, and if it is logical and reasonable to conclude that a highly adaptable terrorist organization would fund their operations using prostitution. Prostitution is a highly profitable business requiring no specialized skill-set and very little cost to entry. The business opportunities are unlimited, and it is business that law enforcement, prosecutors, and the courts do not consider as a serious crime, but rather a harmless vice voluntarily entered into by all parties. A failure to seriously consider prostitution as a funding mechanism demonstrates a potentially fatal lack of imagination.
KEYWORDS: Prostitution, Terrorist Financing, Lack of Imagination, Crime-Terror Nexus, Transnational Gangs, Organized Crime, Criminal Activity Funding Terrorism, Terrorist and Criminals, Homegrown
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USCG DIVERSITY: MOVING BEYOND “TRAINING, RULES, AND REGULATIONS” Joel S. Ferguson–Lieutenant, United States Coast Guard B.S., United States Military Academy, 1996 M.S., National Graduate School, 2007 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisor: Anders Strindberg, DoD Contractor Second Reader: Christopher Bellavita, DoD Contractor
The United States Coast Guard continues its workforce diversification initiative. Recent Congressional statements communicate a lack of progress in this endeavor, and comments from senior Coast Guard leaders link workforce diversification to the ability of the USCG to fulfill its future Department of Homeland Security (DHS) mission requirements to the best of its ability. The USCG is at a decision point. The dilemma is the feasibility of managing demography in a volunteer organization that assesses and promotes its personnel based on merit. Should the USCG maintain a merit-based admission and promotion policy, or should the goal of race/gender societal reflectiveness take precedence over the concept of merit for the USCG to “diversify” its ranks? Thankfully, the USCG does not need to choose between the concepts of merit and diversity because the two concepts are not mutually exclusive. Instead of a strict meritocracy or a highly regulated demographic personnel model, the USCG should pursue a third diversification option that clearly communicates respect for both multiculturalism (diversity) and merit-based accessions and promotions. This thesis proposes a new recruiting and promotion philosophy called the Respect Paradigm, which incorporates the organizational strengths of merit-based promotions/accessions with the USCG core value of Respect for its already existing diverse workforce. A strategy canvas is presented in this thesis that provides a qualitative method of marketing and messaging the Respect Paradigm to federal legislators and USCG organizational leaders. Quantitative measurements of the Respect Paradigm’s success result from internal and external polling, which assess the acceptance and internalization of its philosophy and criteria. The ultimate measurement is the Respect Paradigm’s effect on actual USCG diversification.
KEYWORDS: United States Coast Guard, Diversity, Workforce Diversification, Workforce Management
REGULATING NATION-STATE CYBER ATTACKS IN COUNTERTERRORISM OPERATIONS Colleen Elizabeth Garcia–DoD Civilian B.S., Georgetown University Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, 2007 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisors: Dorothy E. Denning, Department of Defense Analysis James A. Russell, Department of National Security Affairs
In August 2008, a military conflict between Georgia and Russia occurred in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russian military action in this conflict was immediately preceded by a number of cyber attacks against a variety of Georgian government websites, and while the perpetrator(s) was never conclusively identified, Russia denied involvement. Importantly, however, the Georgian cyber attacks seem to be the first instance of cyber attacks used in combination with conventional attacks. In combating each other through the kinetic attacks used to date, nation-states have been required to comply with the long-standing law of armed conflict. Yet, modern warfare now challenges this accepted regulation in two ways. First, as was just demonstrated, cyber attacks now may complement traditional kinetic attacks. Second, it is not fellow states that nations now commonly face in combat as people suspected was the case during the Georgian attacks, but rather non-state actors, a fact made evident by the ongoing Global War on Terror. Therefore, this thesis seeks to answer two questions: 1) are existing international laws governing cyber attacks conducted by nation-states against terrorists sufficient, and 2) if existing law is insufficient, how should international law be amended to better regulate the use of such cyber attacks in counterterrorism operations? To test the idea of sufficiency, this thesis first examines potential nation-state cyber-attack scenarios that may be seen in future counterterrorism operations, and whether those possible attack scenarios are in keeping with international law principles. This assessment ultimately demonstrates that problems of evaluation and enforcement stymie attempts at regulation of nation-state cyber
71 SECURITY STUDIES attacks in counterterrorism operations, creating new areas of concern for international law, which can only be resolved through the creation of cyber-attack-specific legal principles and enhanced enforcement mechanisms.
KEYWORDS: Cyberattack, International Law, China, Russia, United States, al Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah, FARC, Botnet, Worm, Virus, Malicious Code, Hack, jus in bello, jus ad bellum, Law of Armed Conflict, LOAC, Laws of War, Counterterrorism Operations, CT, Cyber Strategy, Military Strategy, Foreign Policy, National Policy, Use of Force, Armed Attack, Enforcement, Evaluation
DEFYING PREDICTIONS? CHILEAN CIVIL–MILITARY RELATIONS SINCE 1990 Lucas B. Gunnels–Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B.S., University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill, 1998 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisor: Arturo C. Sotomayor Velázquez, Department of National Security Affairs Second Reader: Harold Trinkunas, Department of National Security Affairs
Chile is widely regarded to have emerged from its 1990 transition to democracy with the most restrictive rules of the game for its newly elected civilian leaders. Nowhere were these rules more restrictive than with respect to the armed forces. Most scholars were very pessimistic about the future of Chilean civil–military relations, although a few did anticipate that politicians would be able to overcome these restrictions over time. Two decades after the transition, it appears that much success has been achieved. Is it now possible to say that Chile has developed strong civilian control of its armed forces? If so, how did the predictions made in the years after the transition stack up against what has actually happened? This thesis demonstrates that Chile has achieved what Pion-Berlin called “political management” of the military, and that there remain significant vestiges of the conditions left in place by Pinochet. Moreover, this study finds that the optimistic projections, based as they were on rational choices by politicians, provide explanation not just for the advancements in civilian control, but also for the areas where there has been little or no improvement.
KEYWORDS: Chile, Transition to Democracy, Civil–military Relations, Civilian Control of the Military, Democratic Consolidation, Postauthoritarian Transition
STRATEGIC PLANNING FOR COMPREHENSIVE SECURITY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION’S MILITARY OPERATIONS: EUFOR RD CONGO, EUFOR TCHAD/RCA, AND EUNAVFOR SOMALIA Frank Hagemann–Lieutenant Colonel, German Army M.A., University of the Federal Armed Forces-Hamburg, 1995 Ph.D., University of Potsdam, 2001 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisors: Donald Abenheim, Department of National Security Affairs David S. Yost, Department of National Security Affairs
This thesis analyzes the European Union’s approach to crisis management and compares the three most recent operations, EUFOR RD Congo, EUFOR Tchad/RCA, and EUNAVFOR Somalia, as case studies. It finds that the European Union has reached a common understanding of comprehensive security, but it has failed to develop and implement a truly integrated approach at the political and strategic level. The thesis identifies three decisive factors for the improvement of the EU’s comprehensive approach to security. First, the European Union needs a sound concept through which its plethora of civil and military tools could be seamlessly integrated and synchronized in a truly coherent approach. Second, the European Union could benefit from the establishment of a permanent operation headquarters providing the requested input from the very beginning of the comprehensive planning process. Third, the EU’s security and defense policy could become more coherent and capable if small groups of credible nations cooperated to offer leadership, perhaps in informal directorates. The key question in this respect remains whether and how the European Union can address the friction between the need for effective leadership on the one hand and the imperative of political legitimacy on the other.
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KEYWORDS: European Union, Comprehensive Security, Strategic Planning, European Security and Defense Policy, ESDP, Common Security and Defense Policy, CSDP, Military Operations, Crisis Management, EUFOR RD Congo, EUFOR Tchad/RCA, EUNAVFOR Somalia
DELIBERALIZATION IN JORDAN: THE ROLES OF ISLAMISTS AND U.S.–E.U. ASSISTANCE IN STALLED DEMOCRATIZATION Ralf P. Hammerstein–Lieutenant Colonel, German Army M.S., University of the German Armed Forces–Munich, 1999 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisors: Robert Springborg, Department of National Security Affairs Mohammed M. Hafez, Department of National Security Affairs
Despite some political openings in Jordan during the 1980s, the democratization process is presently stalled. What explains the lack of continuous democratization in Jordan while democratic transitions in many other countries around the world have taken place? This study seeks to understand the reasons behind stalled democratization in Jordan by analyzing three variables: the nature of the opposition movement, the role of domestic and international events in shaping opposition-regime interactions, and the role of U.S.-EU assistance to Jordan. The major finding of this study is that democratization in Jordan has stalled due to the regime’s policy of preventing political opportunities to maintain the status quo backed by the U.S. and the EU. Political inclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) will bode well for Jordan’s democratic progress. The MB’s strategic behavior has withstood an Islamist radicalization in light of repression and unpopular western policy in the region. Nevertheless, neither the U.S. nor the EU pushed for more liberalization in Jordan, which enabled the MB to gain political access. The U.S. and the EU opted for a realist approach, focusing on security in Jordan. This thesis proposes a rethinking of assistance to Jordan based on a burden sharing between the U.S. and the EU.
KEYWORDS: Islamism in Jordan, Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, Political Opportunities, Strategic Choice, Ideological and Organizational Responsiveness, Political Inclusion, Moderation of Radical Agendas, Special Relationship between the Jordanian Regime and the Muslim Brotherhood, United States and European Union Assistance to Jordan
THE EXPLOITATION OF A WEAK STATE: AL-QAEDA IN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA IN YEMEN Nicholas J. Hedberg–Lieutenant, United States Navy B.A., Gonzaga University, 2005 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisor: Mohammed M. Hafez, Department of National Security Affairs Second Reader: Robert Springborg, Department of National Security Affairs
Yemen is a weak state, as the government does not have the capability to assert effective control over the entirety of its territory. The Yemeni government faces three major challenges today: the Houthi Rebellion, secessionists, and growing political unrest due to its failing economy and inability to provide basic social services to its people. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has recently made a resurgence in Yemen since its near destruction in 2003. Yemen’s weak state characteristics, the failure of jihad in Saudi Arabia, and the lack of Yemeni political will to combat the threat of AQAP and their global jihadist agenda have made the state an ideal location for the regional organization. AQAP has been able to exploit Yemen’s weaknesses and build strong ties with the Yemeni tribes in the areas of Yemen where the government has little control. This study argues that due to these circumstances, there is a strong possibility that Yemen will become a safe haven for transnational terrorism, akin to al-Qaeda’s base in Pakistan today. To prevent al-Qaeda from using Yemen as their next base for transnational terrorism, the international community must help Yemen address the factors that have allowed AQAP to exploit the country.
KEYWORDS: Yemen, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Terrorism, Weak States
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THE IDEALS OF TODAY’S MODERNIZING PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY Douglas P. Kisby–Captain, United States Air Force B.S., Brigham Young University, 2000 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisor: Alice L. Miller, Department of National Security Affairs Second Reader: COL Mark Chakwin, USA, Department of National Security Affairs
As China emerges as a major world power, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has adjusted its ideology to maintain national spirit and power. Elements of this adjustment can be seen in changes within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). As the PLA aggressively pursues a revolution in military affairs with Chinese characteristics, some have asserted that the PLA’s modernization and professionalization reform involves reviving the values and ideals associated with Confucianism and China’s traditional past. This thesis reveals that the PLA has not revived the values and ideals associated with Confucianism in its drive to modernize. Instead, the PLA is incorporating values and ideals similar to other modernizing militaries that have some similarities to ancient Chinese ideals, but are comparatively different. The values and ideals the PLA has incorporated provide a foundation for all service members and clarify allegiances, define acceptable ethical behavior, elucidate competing ideological thoughts, establish a benchmark for military members’ actions with each other and with society, and facilitate loyalty to the CCP.
KEYWORDS: Confucianism, Confucian Ideals and Values, PLA Modernization, PLA Professionalization, PLA Core Military Values
DEMOCRATIZATION IN ALBANIA: THE OSCE, NATO, AND THE EUROPEAN UNION Adriatik Mema–Civilian, Albanian Ministry of Defense B.A., University of Tirana, 1988 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisors: David S. Yost, Department of National Security Affairs Donald Abenheim, Department of National Security Affairs
The collapse of the communist regime in 1990 and the establishment of political pluralism marked the beginning of a new era for Albania, one of transition from communism to democracy. In addition to undertaking domestic political and economic reforms, Albania began to establish political and economic relations with European and Euro-Atlantic organizations as a means of making the transition to democracy irreversible. Membership in these organizations, including the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and the European Union, was a long-term objective of Albania’s new political leadership. This thesis examines their important roles in helping the country to democratize, carry out democratic reforms, and meet membership criteria. It also analyzes their impact in shaping the country’s domestic political development and their role in the promotion of stability, security, and prosperity. It concludes that the involvement of these organizations has enhanced not only the quality of the reforms, but also the sustainability of democratic achievements in Albania. Finally, the thesis considers the prospects for Albania’s future democratic development, the OSCE’s probable future role in the country, challenges beyond NATO membership, and above all, further reforms to be accomplished in light of prospective EU membership.
KEYWORDS: Democratization, International Organizations, Domestic Politics, Conditionality, Membership Criteria, Accession
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THE PRESIDENT HAS NO CLOTHES: THE CASE FOR BROADER APPLICATION OF RED TEAMING WITHIN HOMELAND SECURITY A. Bentley Nettles–Colonel, United States Army B.A., Texas A&M University, 1985 J.D., South Texas College of Law, 1987 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisor: David Brannan, DoD Contractor Second Reader: Gregory Fontenot, University of Foreign Military and Cultural Studies
Missing in the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) current gap and vulnerability analysis approach to red teaming is the employment of broader decision-support red teaming, which would provide a strategic assessment tool and assist the organization in overcoming group thinking and a lack of organizational creativity, while avoiding mirror imaging. DHS, by broadening its use of red teaming, will improve its decision-making processes across all levels of homeland security. This research uses a selected case study—identifying and challenging assumptions inherent within TSA’s security system, analyzing the problem using an alternative model, and looking at the problem from different perspectives. Combined with evidence and analysis from historical examples, this effort is designed to determine whether decision makers can benefit from red teams and red team fundamental concepts, and whether these concepts will be effective in assisting DHS and its partners in making better decisions. America’s homeland security system is hampered by bureaucratic challenges. The U.S. government must dramatically re-orient itself. America needs to redefine its homeland security approach into a flexible, adaptive system. Understanding the U.S. layers of security, and how they interact to defeat the terrorist threat, is as critical as understanding “red”—what our enemies are doing. Trained Red Teams apply creative thinking, and red-team fundamentals, challenge the organization’s assumptions, provide alternative analysis to the organization’s plans, and provide the decision maker with alternative perspectives on the current operating environment. Education on red-team fundamentals should be implemented as mandatory for all homeland security leaders. DHS should implement decision-support red teams as part of its force structure; implement joint-enterprise Red Teams between its own agencies and facilitate joint-enterprise red teams between DHS and other security agencies, entities, and partners; and implement red-team integration into the Homeland Security technology-approval process.
KEYWORDS: Red Team, Homeland Security, Department of Homeland Security, Transportation Safety Administration
CIVIL–MILITARY RELATIONS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION AND “INNERE FUEHRUNG” Markus Reinhardt–Lieutenant Colonel, German Air Force Diploma, University of the Federal Armed Forces-Hamburg, 1999 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisors: Donald Abenheim, Department of National Security Affairs Colonel Dirk Rogalski, Department of National Security Affairs
This thesis investigates the compatibility of sociological and cultural interpretations of the phenomena of civil– military relations in the Euro-Atlantic realm within the contemporary challenges of European Security Defense Policy (ESDP). This study further describes and analyzes the key features of the German approach of “Innere Fuehrung,” with its guiding principle of the “citizen in uniform”—a central ideal with a long European tradition. The thesis argues that conceptual deficiencies and terminological imprecision in the field of civil– military relations within the European Union in general, and ESDP in particular, could lead to problematic consequences for European military integration in the future. If these deficiencies are not addressed by those affected by them, such problems of democratic civil–military affairs in the leading European nations could have a significant impact on the evolution and future shape of civil–military relations in the European Union in general, and on the role and status of European soldiers in particular, amid the challenges and threats of the present and future. This thesis answers the question of how well suited the German civil–military concept and philosophy of Innere Fuehrung can be to the enhancement of EU military integration.
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KEYWORDS: Civil–military Relations, European Union, Innere Fuehrung, European Security and Defense Policy, ESDP, Common Security and Defense Policy, CSDP, Citizen in Uniform, EU Military Integration
LIMITED WAR UNDER THE NUCLEAR UMBRELLA: AN ANALYSIS OF INDIA’S COLD-START DOCTRINE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR STABILITY ON THE SUBCONTINENT Quinn J. Rhodes–Lieutenant, United States Navy B.A., University of Rochester, 2002 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisor: S. Paul Kapur, Department of National Security Affairs Second Reader: Douglas Porch, Department of National Security Affairs
In May 1998, both India and Pakistan detonated nuclear devices, adding new complications to an already volatile security environment. In the years since these tests, the Indian subcontinent has been the site of one war in 1999 and numerous other military confrontations, the biggest occurring in 2001 and 2002. The majority of these conflicts have risen from attacks in India and Kashmir carried out by non-state actors based in Pakistan. India thus faces a compellence problem in which it wants to force Pakistan to stop its perceived support of these actors, yet it can only do so to a limited extent for fear of nuclear retaliation. India’s answer, following the 2001/2002 military standoff with Pakistan, is the Cold Start doctrine, a strategy of limited war under the nuclear umbrella. This thesis examines the efficacy of the Cold Start doctrine in the context of three major areas: Pakistan’s principal-agent dilemma, historical escalation problems on the subcontinent, and domestic Indian civil–military and inter-service rivalry issues. Based on the findings regarding these areas, this study shows that Cold Start is not the answer to India’s compellence problem. Rather, cooperation to combat a common foe is a more practical solution than mutual antagonism.
KEYWORDS: Cold Start, Principal-Agent Problem, Compellence, Civil–military Relations, Inter-Service Rivalry, Escalation: Deliberate and Inadvertent, Limited War, Nuclear Weapons
ZIMBABWE: INTERNALLY OR EXTERNALLY DRIVEN MELTDOWN? Andrew L. Roddan–Major, United States Air Force B.S., Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, 1997 M.A., Webster University, 2005 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisor: Letitia Lawson, Department of National Security Affairs Second Reader: Robert M. McNab, Defense Resources Management Institute
Zimbabwe is a nation ostracized by the developed world and among the lowest per capita GDP countries in the world. While President Mugabe’s governance is now recognized as untenable for the future of Zimbabwe, his choices seem to focus on the impact of external actors fueling opposition and undermining Mugabe’s capability to govern, causing an ever more autocratic rule, or a perpetual leadership style, against any opposition to maintain his position. A consistent repression of opposition parties or individuals has continued to secure Mugabe’s position over more than a quarter century, using whatever methods he finds necessary. The international community must be more cognizant of post-war leaders, realizing that the leader of an armed conflict overthrowing an undesirable government is not always the right choice for a post-conflict, peacetime leader. Mugabe is a perfect example of the traits and trends such a leader can display that must be recognized early to avoid such a secure entrenchment that a failed leader cannot be successfully challenged by opposition groups to rectify the situation. Mugabe’s early rhetoric against the constitution, combined with his consistent willingness to use violence and intimidation in securing his power all indicated a leader not ready to forego his title or personal agenda for the good of his nation.
KEYWORDS: Zimbabwe, Mugabe, Structural Adjustment Program, Democracy, Autocrat, State Sponsored Violence, ZANU, ZAPU, Nkomo, Movement for Democratic Change, Tsvangirai, Fifth Brigade
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THE HOMELAND SECURITY ADVISORY SYSTEM: AN ASSESSMENT OF ITS ABILITY TO FORMULATE A RISK MESSAGE Martin E. Ryczek–Chicago Police Department B.S., Illinois State University, 1983 M.P.H., University of Illinois, 1987 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisor: David C. Tucker, Department of Defense Analysis Second Reader: Lauren Fernandez, Center for Homeland Defense and Security
The Homeland Security Advisory System was conceived in 2003. Within seven years, the system has become marginalized, even though the country continues to be at war with the forces of terrorism. The reason for this is that the system as designed does not allow for the successful crafting of a complete warning message. A warning message needs to be specific enough to allow the warning recipient to make the appropriate linkages between the warning message and the physical and social manifestations of the threat. This linkage allows the recipient to form his own unique risk reality. Once that is formed, the recipient may be motivated to take appropriate precautions to counter the threat. A warning message that does not allow for the formation of a risk reality can never be effective because the recipient will fail to internalize the risk and thus fail to take the appropriate action to counter the threat.
KEYWORDS: Homeland Security Advisory System, Risk Communication, Self Verification of Risk, Risk Reality, Risk Predictors, Hazard Characteristics
MILITARIZATION OF ENERGY RESOURCES: TURKEY AS A CASE STUDY Ali O. Seker–First Lieutenant, Turkish Air Force B.S., Air Force Academy, 2004 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisor: James A. Russell, Department of National Security Affairs Second Reader: Abbas Kadhim, Department of National Security Affairs
The United States of America, Great Britain, France, Germany, India, the Russian Federation, Turkey, and China have all implemented policies to obtain reliable energy at reasonable prices. Overall, the purpose of this thesis is to identify the situations in which Turkey has encountered usage of energy as a “weapon” and to analyze Turkey’s reaction in these situations from 1945 until the present day. This thesis predicts the effects of energy issues on Turkey’s national security strategy. The thesis finds that Turkey passed through a preparation phase during the 1960s and 1980s to balance her approach to both buyers and sellers. This period paved the way for the 1990s, when Turkey developed prospects for future energy supplies. Three general lessons emerge from examination of Turkey’s experience: 1) Turkey managed to balance its energy market by pursuing successful compromise policies; 2) domestic needs, rather than transit fees and international concerns, have an essential role in forming these policies; and 3) even though tanker wars harm Turkey’s naval transportation, they are beneficial for Turkey’s land transportation as the only outlet for both of her neighbor producer countries.
KEYWORDS: Energy Security, Turkey’s Energy Policy, Energy Conflicts, Iran-Iraq War, International Energy Agency
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ENHANCING THE EUROPEAN UNION’S DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY IN AFGHANISTAN David K. Spencer–Major, United States Army B.A., Saint Bonaventure University-New York, 1998 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisors: David S. Yost, Department of National Security Affairs Scott N. Siegel, Department of National Security Affairs
The development strategy of the European Union (EU) in Afghanistan suffers from two major defects: inadequate coordination between the EU donors, national and collective, and an overemphasis on short-term projects that do not promote sustainable economic growth. This thesis examines the underlying causes of these defects and analyzes two methods that might address them. First, it assesses the possible benefits of appointing an EU or United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan “super envoy” to synchronize EU donor activities. Second, it uses a regional-development-strategy case study called “Nangarhar Inc.” to examine techniques that the EU donors could emulate to enable a revised EU strategy to attain its fullest potential. The analysis indicates that an EU “super envoy” might be able to harness the full weight of the EU donors in regional development strategies undertaking large-scale projects beyond the capabilities of most donors in Afghanistan. The thesis concludes that by promoting private-sector-led economic growth through regional strategies, a unified EU strategy might provide sustainable development in Afghanistan that could contribute to a notable reduction in the requirement for international donor intervention in the mid to long term.
KEYWORDS: European Union, Afghanistan, Regional Development Strategy, Sustainable Economic Growth, Development Coordination, Private Sector, European Commission, European Council, EU Member States, Value Chain, ANDS, Afghanistan National Development Strategy, UNAMA, JCMB, Nangarhar Inc., Provincial Development Plan, PDP, Lisbon Treaty, NGO, Super Envoy, Donors, Mineral, Natural Resources
THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE RISE OF CHINA’S MILITARY FOR MONGOLIAN SECURITY Bayar-Ochir Sukhee–Lieutenant Colonel, Mongolian Army B.M.S., Military Academy of Mongolia, 1997 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisor: Alice L. Miller, Department of National Security Affairs Second Reader: Victoria Clement, Department of National Security Affairs
China is transforming the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into an effective fighting force with power projection capability. The main objective has been to fill the gap between the PLA and leading military forces. The modernization of China’s military forces coincides with its rapid economic growth and growing energy and resource needs. For these reasons, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders put forward new missions for the PLA, which may include securing China’s interests abroad. This process certainly impacts indirectly, if not directly, Mongolia’s security. Like other countries, Mongolia does not choose its neighbors. Hence, the geopolitical reality of living between its large neighbors, China and Russia, defines its fundamental security interests. Though Beijing is not likely to use force against Mongolia, and China and Mongolia currently enjoy friendly relations, it is uncertain how long this will last. Despite having no immediate external threat, China has continued modernizing its military with great ambiguity. Therefore, both Mongolia and Western countries, including the United States, are wondering why China is pursuing such an ambitious military modernization effort. Mongolia’s underdeveloped economy, small population, lack of financial and technological capabilities, and rich natural resources certainly attract the attention of both big neighbors. In particular, China has a particular interest, since its economic development requires a lot of energy and resources. Thus, China may easily absorb Mongolia’s economy, which affects every aspect of the security of Mongolia. Unfortunately, the history of Mongolia demonstrates episodes of difficult bilateral relations with both Moscow and Beijing. Therefore, this thesis argues that Mongolia must implement and maintain multilateral foreign and security policy with respect to both big neighbors, while effectively seeking a “third neighbor” to balance against China and Russia. Because it is very difficult to assure Mongolia’s security using military force, Mongolia must rely
78 SECURITY STUDIES on diplomatic and political measures. In addition, Mongolia’s military must also remain an effective tool supporting broader national-security objectives.
KEYWORDS: Mongolian Security, Chinese Communist Party, The People’s Liberation Army, Modernization, Implication, Multilateral Policy, Third Neighbors, Bilateral Relations, Balancing
TURKEY AS AN EMERGING ENERGY HUB Halil Ibrahim Tokus–First Lieutenant, Turkish Air Force B.S., Naval Postgraduate School, 2010 Master of Arts in Security Studies–June 2010 Advisor: Robert Looney, Department of National Security Affairs Second Reader: Robert M. McNab, Defense Resources Management Institute
There is an increasing dependence on Russian, Caspian, and Middle Eastern oil and natural gas by Europe and the United States. Turkey is geographically in the middle of these consumer and producer countries and has an important place in its emerging role as an energy hub because of pipelines that exist, are planned, or are already under construction. Turkey has agreements with Russia, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Syria, and Europe in regards to energy. Due to these agreements, Turkey is building a web of energy to diversify its energy supply. Some observers think that Turkey is establishing its own dependence, and some think that Turkey’s attempts at creating an energy web are about interdependence rather than dependence in advantage of its energy security. The objective of this thesis is to analyze how Turkey’s energy policy, with the aim of becoming an energy hub, affects its own and the region’s dependence or interdependence in regards to energy security.
KEYWORDS: Turkey, Energy, Energy Hub, Energy Policy
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STUDENT INDEX
Grasso, Colleen E., 27 A Guillen, Jonathan M., 25 Alexander, James, 59 Gunnels, Lucas B., 72 Arzu, Juan, 9 H B Hagemann, Frank, 72 Balafas, Andreas, 9 Hammerstein, Ralf P., 73 Barlow, Brian, 59 Harada, Gaku, 11 Battaglia, Neal, 21 Haskin, Doug, 59 Bell, Michael M., 3 Hedberg, Nicholas J., 73 Benke, Ildiko, 29 Hinkson, Daniel S., 53 Biediger, Jeremy S., 21 Hlavin, Justin C., 47 Bodden, Huntley J., 51 Holloway, Brian C., 22 Bolakis, Christos, 57 Hughley, Anthony E., 12, 45 Boorom, Eric W., 27 Bummara, Justin M., 10 I Burciaga, Aaron D., 51 Infante, Isaia Benette E., 11 Burris, Bradford M., 29 Byrd, Peter, 59 J Jimenez, Justin C., 23 C Calamug, Bernard F., 10 K Castro, Beire, 9 Karimov, Reshad A., 31 Chaney, William D., 60 Kassaras, Georgios, 14 Chesire, David K., 30 Keller, James C., 32 Clark, William J., 10 Kelley, Christopher S., 10 Corzine, Mark, 60 Kessler, Mary Elaine, 12 Kiper, Troy O., 12, 45 D Kisby, Douglas P., 74 Davis, Christian J., 69 Krimizas, Stavros, 9 Davis, Cledo L., 63 DeCarli, Ashley M., 69 L Deitle, Lisa A., 70 Lash, Michael E., 63 Denzel, Jeffrey R., 22 Lindauer, Jason M., 53 Dieges, Eric, 11 Lindquist, Joseph M., 4 DiGiacomo, Richard J., 70 Lipowski, Miroslav, 32 Long, Joseph E., 33 E Erdman, Robert W., 52 M Ermoshkin, Ilia K., 16 Mack, Brian, 9 Mann, Zahid Nawaz, 33 F Martin, Sarah E., 13 Ferguson, Joel S., 71 McClellan, Mark R., 12, 45 Flynn, Kimberly C., 27 McClure, Sean M., 34 Fowler, Michael W., 3 Mellingen, Kjetil, 34, 43 Mema, Adriatik, 74 G Meyer, John R., 11 Garcia, Colleen Elizabeth, 71 Meyers, Nicholas A., 13 Garrick, Ronald A., 52 Mitsotakis, Adamantios, 14 Gatzke, Benjamin T., 19 Mixa, Matthew B., 14 Gibbs, Stephen, 30 Mott, Bryan, 35 Goh, Meng Chong, 39 Murphy, Doug, 15 Goodman, William K., 11 Grant, Paul M., 31
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N Seker, Ali O., 77 Nash, David F., 35 Shaw, Matthew S., 11 Nelson, Peter C., 23 Smith, Roy M., 65 Nettles, A. Bentley, 75 Spencer, David K., 78 Nytko, Billy J., 37 Stage, John, 9 Sukhee, Bayar-Ochir, 78 O Swedberg, Andrew D., 19 Orzech, Mark D., 4 T P Tew, Donnie, 60 Palmer, Jeffrey M., 49 Tokus, Halil Ibrahim, 79 Paolercio, Adrianne L., 60 Trout, James A., 10 Phillips, Eric L., 41 Truckenbrod, Daniel R., 16
R U Reinhardt, Markus, 75 Unsal, Omur, 54 Rhodes, Quinn J., 76 Roddan, Andrew L., 76 V Rodriguez, Roland G., 11 VanDyke, Jamie E., 61 Rognlie, Aleron B., 15 Ryczek, Martin E., 77 W Wallace, Kevin, 60 S Ware, Ryan, 25 Scheibe, Sebastian, 54 Wiedemann, Michael, 55 Schulz, Carsten, 54 Williams, Michael J., 14 Seeley, Brett, 12 Wilson, Chris, 15 Seifert, Anthony J., 16
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ADVISOR INDEX Grbovic, Dragoslav, 57 A Green, J. Michael, 65 Abenheim, Donald, 69, 72, 74, 75 Greene, James B., 10 Acosta, Hector M., 41 Gregg, Heather S., 34 Apte, Aruna, 11, 14 Guild, Jennifer, 25 Apte, Uday M., 16 Atkinson, Michael P., 51, 52 H Hafez, Mohammed M., 73 B Harr, Patrick, 3 Baez, Francisco, MAJ, USA, 54, 55 Harris, John R., 23 Bellavita, Christopher, 70, 71 Hart, David A., 65 Berger, Marcos, 35 Henderson, David R., 12 Borer, Douglas A., 30 Hixson, Robert S., 22 Boudreau, Michael W., 59, 60 Hoffman, Richard, 69 Bowden, Nathaniel S., 23 Horne, Gary E., 51 Brannan, David, 75 Hubbard, Mont, 19 Brinkley, Douglas E., 11, 15, 27 Hudgens, Bryan J., 11, 12, 45 Brook, Douglas A., 59 Bruneau, Tom, 3 I Buttrey, Samuel E., 53 Irvine, Cynthia E., 25
C J Calvano, Charles N., 63 Jansen, Erik, 32 Candreva, Phil, 12 Johnson, Rachel T., 52, 55 Chakwin, COL Mark, USA, 74 Jones, Lawrence R., 14 Clark, Paul C., 25 Julian, Alexander, 37 Clement, Victoria, 78 Cristi, Roberto, 37 K Kadhim, Abbas, 69, 77 D Kang, Keebom, 9 Denning, Dorothy E., 71 Kang, Wei, 19 Denning, Peter J., 25 Kapur, S. Paul, 76 Dillard, John, 59 Karunasiri, Gamani, 57 Dinolt, George, 25 Khan, Feroz Hassan, 33 Doelling, Michael C., 27 Kidalov, Max, 15 Durkee, Philip, 49 King, Cynthia L., 13 Krener, Arthur J., 19 E Kress, Moshe, 51, 52 Elsberry, Russell, 3 Emanuel, Kerry, 3 L Euske, Kenneth, 15 Lawson, Letitia, 76 Evans, James A., 53 Lee, Doowan, 33, 35 Lewellen, John W., 23 F Lober, George, 29 Fernandez, Lauren, 77 Looney, Robert, 69, 70, 79 Ferrer, Geraldo, 11, 14 Lucas, Thomas W., 51, 52, 53 Fontenot, Gregory, 75 Freeman, Michael E., 30, 31 M McCauley, Michael E., 41 G McCormick, Gordon H., 34 Geiger, Dale R., 14 McNab, Robert, 3 Giordano, Frank R., 31, 32, 33 McNab, Robert M., 3, 76, 79 Giraldo, Francis, 3, 4 Michael, Sherif, 61 Glenn, Lew A., 22 Miller, Alice L., 74, 78 Goshorn, Deborah E., 63 Moltz, James, 70 Goshorn, Rachel E., 63 Montgomery, Michael T., 3
______83 ADVISOR INDEX
N Simons, Anna, 29, 30, 32, 33 Naegle, Bradley R., 59 Sinibaldi, José, 22 Nalwasky, Richard, CDR, USN, 10 Smith, Craig F., 22, 23 Neta, Beny, 4 Smith, Nathan, 60 Nix, Dayne, 29 Sotomayor Velázquez, Arturo C., 72 Nussbaum, Daniel A., 12, 13, 16, 45 Springborg, Robert, 3, 73 Stone, Rebecca, CDR, USN, 49 O Strindberg, Anders, 70, 71 O’Connor, LCDR Paul E., USN, 41 Szechtman, Roberto, 51, 52 Olsen, Richard C., 21 T P Thornton, Edward B., 4 Papoulias, Fotis, 47 Trask, David M., 21 Paulo, Eugene P., 54 Trinkunas, Harold, 3, 72 Pickar, Charles, 60 Tsypkin, Mikhail, 29 Porch, Douglas, 76 Tucker, David C., 34, 43, 77
R W Rasmussen, Maria, 3 Wang, Qing, 3 Rendon, Rene G., 9, 11, 16 Whitaker, Lyn R., 53 Rice, Joseph A., 21, 39 Whitcomb, Clifford, 47, 63 Roberts, Nancy, 35 Willins, Katrina, 60 Rogalski, Dirk, Colonel, German Air Force, 75 Wilson, Gregory R., COL, USA, 31 Rothstein, Hy, 30 Wood, Karen, 60 Russell, James A., 71, 77 Wood, R. Kevin, 54
S Y Salmeron, Javier, 54 Yoder, E. Cory, 9, 15 San Miguel, Joseph G., 13, 16 Yoho, Keenan D., 10, 11, 12, 45 Sanchez, Paul J., 54 Yost, David S., 72, 74, 78 Sanchez, Susan M., 54 Scott, Alan D., 61 Z Sepp, Kalev I., 32, 34, 43 Zhou, Hong, 19 Siegel, Scott N., 78 Simon, Cary, 13
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