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Pawns of Peace Evaluation of Norwegian Peace Efforts in Sri Lanka, 1997-2009

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Pawns of Peace Evaluation of Norwegian Peace Efforts in Sri Lanka, 1997-2009 Evaluation Department Pawns of Peace Evaluation of Norwegian peace efforts in Sri Lanka, 1997-2009 Report 5/2011 – Evaluation Norad Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation P.O.Box 8034 Dep, NO-0030 Oslo Ruseløkkveien 26, Oslo, Norway Phone: +47 22 24 20 30 Fax: +47 22 24 20 31 Photos: A9 Artery: The A9 highway remained open in 2004, contributing to the flow of persons and goods between the GOSL-controlled South and the LTTE-controlled North of Sri Lanka – one of the main tangible peace dividends accruing from the signing of the CFA. Source: SLMM Report, 2010 Design: Agendum See Design Print: 07 Xpress AS, Oslo ISBN: 978-82-7548-596-8 Pawns of Peace – Evaluation of Norwegian peace efforts in Sri Lanka, 1997-2009 September 2011 Chr. Michelsen Institute/School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London Gunnar Sørbø Jonathan Goodhand Bart Klem Ada Elisabeth Nissen Hilde Selbervik Responsibility for the contents and presentation of findings and recommendations rest with the evaluation team. The views and opinions expressed in the report do not necessarily correspond with those of Norad. Preface For several years, Norway was involved in efforts to contribute to a peaceful solution to the conflict in Sri Lanka. After the military victory by the Sri Lankan army over the Tamil Tigers (LTTE) in May 2009, Norway no longer had a role to play. This evaluation of Norwegian peace efforts in Sri Lanka was commissioned mainly for the purpose of informing international peace efforts. The evaluation team was asked to analyze Norway’s role as a peace facilitator in Sri Lanka 1997 – 2009, in light of the knowledge and opportunities available at the time. This included assessing the Norwegian understanding of the conflict, its management of its different roles in the peace process, as well as relationships to parties in and outside the peace process. The team has faced a challenging task. The story of the Norwegian facilitation efforts is still disputed by those involved; there are different interpretations of what happened and why, and what, if anything, could have been done differently. The evaluators were granted full access to the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ archives and Norwegian individuals involved in the peace process. However, the team was not able to gain access to a number of key people in Sri Lanka; including senior LTTE leaders who are dead, second level cadres who are imprisoned, as well as the present government in Sri Lanka. Although some primary sources could not be consulted, the team has sought to compensate for this by studying secondary sources, such as published research (including the team’s own), unpublished reports and media coverage. In addition, international and national actors, experts and observers were interviewed. The evaluation has been carried out by Chr. Michelsen Institute together with the School of Oriental and African Studies. The Evaluation Department is pleased to present the evaluation of Norwegian peace efforts in Sri Lanka, 1997 – 2009 as one of the first independent evaluations of peace diplomacy involving third party government facilitators. Oslo, September 2011. Marie Gaarder Director of Evaluation Pawns of Peace – Evaluation of Norwegian peace efforts in Sri Lanka, 1997-2009 iii Acknowledgements The evaluation team would like to extend its appreciation for the support received from the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs throughout the study period. All respondents who agreed to engage in discussions with team members did so with patience and honesty which honours the participants themselves and their institu- tion. The institutional support from the ministry archives was also crucial in access- ing documents. We are also grateful to numerous individuals from Sri Lanka, Norway, India, the United States and several European countries who gave their time to meet, talk and exchange information. Without their assistance this report could not have been completed. Data collection commenced in September 2010 and has been carried out by a team organized by a consortium between the Chr. Michelsen Institute (CMI) and the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS). Team members included: Gunnar M. Sørbø Social anthropologist, team leader Jonathan Goodhand Development studies, deputy team leader Bart Klem Geographer, conflict analysis, monitoring and mediation Ada Elisabeth Nissen Historian, archival studies Hilde Beate Selbervik Historian, overview of Norwegian aid to Sri Lanka The report has been produced by Goodhand, Klem and Sørbø. It is the product of its authors and responsibility for the accuracy of data included rests with the authors. The findings, interpretations and conclusions presented in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of Norad’s Evaluation Department (EVAL). The team is grateful for very constructive comments from a reference group con- sisting of Professorial Fellow Mick Moore (Institute of Development Studies, Sus- sex), Professor Jonathan Spencer (University of Edinburgh), Senior Researcher Astri Suhrke (CMI), and Professor Chris Cramer (SOAS). We are also indebted to Oliver Walton and James Martin who provided written inputs on the literature on civil wars, interventions and conflict resolution (Walton) and Sri Lankan media during the Norwegian peace facilitation (Martin). Numerous resource persons from Sri Lanka (many of whom wished to be anonymous) also contributed in important ways, mostly through their already published work. Pawns of Peace – Evaluation of Norwegian peace efforts in Sri Lanka, 1997-2009 v Finally, we would like to thank Norad (EVAL) for a difficult and inspiring assignment and the support extended throughout the study period. This included constructive comments on our preliminary report, which were also received from the ministry. Bergen, Canberra and Zurich August 2011 GMS, JG, BK Contents Preface iii Acknowledgements v List of Abbreviations ix Executive Summary xv 1. Introduction 3 Part I: thE Background 13 2. Norwegian Peace diplomacy 13 3. The Sri Lankan Context: An Overview of Conflict and Peacemaking 18 Part II: thE Story 29 4. First Explorations, a Ceasefire and Peace talks (1990s–2003) 29 5. Fragmentation and Crisis (2003-2006) 44 6. War, Victory and humanitarian disaster (2006-2009) 60 Part III: thE Analysis 69 7. The International dimensions of the Peace Process 69 8. The Changing Story of Norwegian Mediation 81 9. Monitoring No-War-No-Peace 94 10. Aid and Peace 107 11. The Primacy of domestic Politics 120 12. Conclusions and Broader Lessons 128 Annex 1: References 143 Annex 2: A Note on Norwegian Aid to Sri Lanka 1997-2009: Trends in Volume, Sector Allocations and Agreement Partners 158 Annex 3: Interviews 171 Annex 4: Terms of Reference 175 Pawns of Peace – Evaluation of Norwegian peace efforts in Sri Lanka, 1997-2009 vii List of tables/figures Map 1: Map of Sri Lanka xix Table 1: Norwegian peace efforts worldwide 15 Table 2: Overview of peace talks 39 Table 3: Negotiations at different periods of time 81 Graph 1: CFA violations by both parties 103 Graph 2: Aid disbursement to Sri Lanka (OECD/DAC) 110 Graph 3: Norwegian aid to Sri Lanka 112 viii Pawns of Peace – Evaluation of Norwegian peace efforts in Sri Lanka, 1997-2009 List of Abbreviations ACF Action Contre la Faim (a French NGO) ADB Asian Development Bank AIADMK All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (political party in Tamil Nadu, India) AMM Aceh Monitoring Mission (in Indonesia) APC All Party Committee APRC All Parties Representative Committee ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BJP Bharatiya Janata Party (Indian political party) CFA Ceasefire Agreement CHD Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue COI Commission of Inquiry CWC Ceylon Workers' Party DMK Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (political party in Tamil Nadu, India) EU European Union FCE Foundation for Co-Existence FLICT Facilitating Local Initiatives for Conflict Transformation FORUT For Utvikling (Campaign for Development and Solidarity), Norwegian NGO G15 Group of 15 (non-aligned movement) GAM Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (Aceh liberation movement, Indonesia) GOSL Government of Sri Lanka GSP+ Generalised System of Preferences (preferential trade mechanism of the EU) GTZ Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (German government agency for development) HOM Head of Mission (of the SLMM) ICRC International Committee of the Red Cross IDP Internally displaced person IFC International Finance Corporation IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development IIGEP International Independent Group of Eminent Persons IMF International Monetary Fund INGO International non-governmental organisation IPKF Indian Peace Keeping Force ISGA Interim Self-Governing Authority JHU Jathika Hela Urumaya (political party of Buddhist monks) JMC Joint Military Council (in Sudan) Pawns of Peace – Evaluation of Norwegian peace efforts in Sri Lanka, 1997-2009 ix JVP Janatha Vimukt Peramuna LMC Local Monitoring Committee (part of SLMM) LTTE Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam MFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs MP Member of Parliament NACPR National Advisory Council for Peace and Reconciliation NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NAWF National Anti-War Front NCA Norwegian Church Aid NERF North East Reconstruction Fund NFZ No-Fire Zone NGO Non-governmental organisation NIPU National Integration Programme Unit NMT Naval Monitoring Team (part of SLMM) NPA Norwegian People's Aid ODA Official Development Assistance OECD/DAC Organisation for Econmic Cooperation and Development/ Development Assistance Committee OHCHR Office of the High Commissioner
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