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Socio-Cultural Analysis with the Reconnaissance, Surveillance, and Intelligence Paradigm Topical Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) and U.S White Volume July 2014 Socio-Cultural Analysis with the Reconnaissance, Surveillance, and Intelligence Paradigm Topical Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) and U.S. Army Engineer Research Devel- opment Center (ERDC) Multi-Agency/Multi-Disciplinary White Papers in Support of Na- tional Security Challenges Editor: Dr. Charles Ehlschlaeger (ERDC) Contributing Authors: LTG Michael T. Flynn (DIA), Dr. Molly Brown (NASA), Carey L. Baxter (ERDC), Mr. Jeffrey Burkhalter (ERDC), Dr. George W. Calfas (ERDC), Dr. Lynn Copeland (USASOC), Dr. Michael Covington (CI), Ms. Marina Drigo (PG), Dr. Charles Ehlschlaeger (ERDC), Dr. David Ellis (GBH), Mr. Michael Farry (CRA), Melanie Greenberg (AL), Dr. Michael L. Hargrave (ERDC), Christopher Holshek (AL), Ms. Lynndee Kemmet (WP), Mr. David Koelle (CRA), Dr. David A. Krooks (ERDC), Dr. Corey Lofdahl (CRA), Dr. Elizabeth L. Malone (PNNL), Dr. Dawn A. Morrison (ERDC), Richard H. Moss (PNNL), Natalie R. Myers (ERDC), Rick N. Myskey Jr. (AGC), Eric M. Nielsen (ERDC) SFC (ret), Dr. Laura Jean Palmer-Moloney (ERDC & NGA), Timothy K. Perkins (ERDC), Dr. Jonathan Pfautz (CRA), Dr. Chris C. Rewerts (ERDC), Angela M. Rhodes (ERDC), Dr. Valerie B. Sitterle (GaTech), Dr. Steve Shellman (SAE), James Sisco (GBH), Dr. Monica L. Smith (NGA), Dr. Laura Steckman (WBB), Mr. Eli Stickgold (CRA), Dr. Lucy A. Whalley (ERDC), Dr. Marcia Zangrilli (SAE) AGC: Army Geospatial Center; AL: Alliance for Peacebuilding; CI: Covington Innovations; CRA: Charles River Analytics, Inc.; DIA: Defense Intelligence Agency; ERDC: Engineer Re- search Development Center; GBH: Goldbelt Hawk, LLC; GaTech: Georgia Tech University; NASA: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; NGA: National Geospatial Intelligence Agency; PNNL: Pacific Northwest National Laboratories; PG: The PERTAN Group Inc.; SAE: Strate- gic Analysis Enterprises; SMA: Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment; USC: University of Southern California; WBB: Whitney, Bradley, and Brown; WP: West Point The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the organizations with which they are associated. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Compiled and edited by: Dr. Charles R. Ehlschlaeger (ERDC), [email protected] Socio-Cultural Analysis with the RSI Paradigm Approved for Public Release iii Abstract: Socio-Cultural Analysis (SCA) has evolved rapidly over the past decade as conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq have forced the DOD to reappraise the techniques used to collect information about the populations in conflict zones. As these two major conflicts wind down, the DOD must recognize that SCA must evolve again due the changing responsibilities of phase zero operations while preparing for future conflicts. Given the challenges of de- clining DOD budgets while improving our SCA capabilities, the chapters in this white volume describe many of the issues facing the DOD for phase zero operations and collecting the socio-cultural information necessary should conflicts escalate. Most of the chapters’ discussions were heavily influenced by LTG Flynn et al.’s “Left of bang: The value of socio-cultural analysis in today’s environment” PRISM article.1 “Left of bang…” was also revised and included in the SMA/ERDC organized White Volume “Nation- al Security Challenges: Insights from Social, Neurobiological, and Com- plexity Sciences,” available at http://www.nsiteam.com/publications.html. The target audiences are planners, operators, and policy makers. With them in mind, the articles are intentionally kept short and written to stand alone. All the contributors have done their best to make their articles easi- ly accessible. DISCLAIMER: The contents of this report are not to be used for advertising, publication, or promotional purposes. Citation of trade names does not constitute an official endorsement or approval of the use of such commercial products. All product names and trademarks cited are the property of their respective owners. The findings of this report are not to be construed as an official Department of the Army position unless so designated by other authorized documents. DESTROY THIS REPORT WHEN NO LONGER NEEDED. DO NOT RETURN IT TO THE ORIGINATOR. 1 Flynn, M., Sisco, J., Ellis, D. (2012). “Left of Bang: The Value of Sociocultural Analysis in Today’s Envi- ronment,”PRISM, Vol 3(4), pgs 12-21. Socio-Cultural Analysis with the RSI Paradigm Approved for Public Release iv Table of Contents List of Figures and Tables ....................................................................................... viii Preface .........................................................................................................................x Lieutenant General Michael T. Flynn, DIA ................................................................................... x Introduction and Executive Summary .................................................................. xiii Dr. Charles R. Ehlschlaeger, ERDC ........................................................................................... xiii Chapter One, Toward a New Strategy of Peace ...................................................... 1 Christopher Holshek and Melanie Greenberg .............................................................................. 1 Abstract ............................................................................................................. 1 Keywords ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1 The Problem with American Strategy Isn’t a Problem ................................... 2 The Moral and the Physical ............................................................................. 6 Peace is for Professionals ............................................................................... 8 The National Strategy of the United States of America ............................... 10 Chapter Two, The Use of Shared Socio-cultural Information and Research Validation ........................................................................................... 12 Dr. Laura Steckman .................................................................................................................... 12 Abstract ........................................................................................................... 12 Keywords .................................................................................................................................... 12 Introduction .................................................................................................... 12 Social media programming as shared socio-cultural information .............. 12 Topics to Consider for Shared Socio-Cultural Information .......................... 14 Geographic and/or linguistic boundaries ................................................................................. 14 Netiquette/Cyber Culture........................................................................................................... 16 Analysts ...................................................................................................................................... 16 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 18 Chapter Three, Measuring Vulnerability to Climate Change: An Indicators Approach .......................................................................................... 19 Elizabeth L. Malone and Richard H. Moss .................................................................................. 19 Abstract ........................................................................................................... 19 Keywords .................................................................................................................................... 19 Introduction .................................................................................................... 19 Definitions ...................................................................................................... 20 Methods to Assess Vulnerability and Resilience.......................................... 21 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 26 Socio-Cultural Analysis with the RSI Paradigm Approved for Public Release v References...................................................................................................... 26 Chapter Four, Relating Urban-Rural Dynamics to Regional Water Security ............................................................................................................... 30 Dr. Laura Jean Palmer-Moloney, Dr. Monica L. Smith, Rick N. Myskey Jr. ................................. 30 Abstract ........................................................................................................... 30 Keywords .................................................................................................................................... 30 Introduction .................................................................................................... 30 Defining water security .................................................................................. 31 Water/Food/Energy/Climate Nexus ........................................................................................
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