Welcome to the VRE Gainesville-Haymarket Extension (GHX) Study Community Meeting
6:00 - 6:30 Sign In and Review Display Boards 6:30 - 7:30 Presentation, Q&A 7:30 - 8:00 Review Display Boards, Complete Survey Study Area
See Enlarged Map
Source: GIS Data Prince William County 2015. Project Goals
1. Add capacity to the I-66 corridor 2. Accommodate current and future freight operations 3. Provide cost-effective and reliable mobility options 4. Enhance service on existing line for current and future riders 5. Support local and regional economic development plans Project ScheduleProject Overview
We are here
2015 2016 2017JUL AUG 2018 SEP OCT2019 NOV 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Planning
Environmental
Preliminary Design
Final Design Current Study Construction Project Activities Project Start Up
Contingent upon Norfolk Southern approval and funding availability.
REVENUE PROJECT DEVELOPMENT PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION SERVICE Phase Project Project
ScheduleSchedule as of Novemberas of April 2016
20 Selecting a Preferred Alternative
Environmental Preliminary Alternatives Analysis Review (NEPA)** Engineering
Initial Evaluate Publish FONSI** Alternatives Refined Initial NEPA Analysis Alternatives Recommend Final LPA
JUL JUL OCT DEC JAN Mid- Fall Fall 2015 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017
Evaluate Wide VRE Publish Draft VRE Range Initial Operations Board Environmental Operations Alternatives Recommends NEPA Assessment Board Adopts Alternatives(s) for Recommend LPA Additional Study Draft Locally Preferred We are here Alternative (LPA)
* The National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) and its implementing regulations establish a process to assess and disclose the anticipated impacts of proposed federal actions on the human environment. ** A Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI) is issued when environmental analysis and interagency review during the Environmental Assessment process find a project to have no significant impacts on the quality of the environment. VRE Manassas Line Benefits Economic Development Ridership and Mobility
Growth Focused Around VRE Lorton Station I-66 Corridor Person Throughput (2040) 250% 25,000 Tract Adjacent to Station 229% General Purpose Lanes Metrorail Station Study Area Express/HOV VRE Gainesville-Haymarket Extension Broader Area Bus 200% 20,000
150% 15,000
Percent Growth Percent 113% Persons per Hour Persons 100% 10,000
50% 43% 41% 5,000 17%
0% 0 -5% Population 1990 - 2014 Employment 1990 - 2014 US 15 US 29 US 50 I-495 234 Bypass Route 234/ Source: AECOM Analysis, 2016. Source: Adapted from Transform 66 (Centreville) Outside the Beltway, Tier 2 EA, June 2016. Nutley Street
• Support greater tax revenues • VRE Manassas Line complements I-66 and US 50/29 for east-west • Minimize sprawl and conserves open space regional travel • Additional travel choice is needed in I-66 corridor to provide long- term congestion relief
Reduced Traffic and Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
Change from Existing Conditions
Broad Run Innovation Gainesville Terminus Haymarket (Relocated) Terminus 2 Stations 3 Stations Terminus Reduction due to having 214 1,159 4,566 7,083 8,460 a closer VRE station Reduction by Source: The Cosmopolitan at Lorton Station attracting new 51,834 72,334 79,791 88,702 93,886 VRE riders
Total VMT 52,048 73,493 84,357 95,785 102,346 reduction
Source: AECOM Analysis, 2016. Note: VMT figures corrected since December 7 community meeting. Alternatives Analysis Process
Equipment Service Plan Station Location Alignment/Route Storage Facility
Screening of Initial Alternatives
Refined Refined Alternative Alternative
Evaluation of Refined Alternatives
We are here
Recommended Alternatives for Environmental Review
Initial Alternative Screening Criteria and Key Findings
Project Element Key Screening Considerations Findings and Recommendations
• Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) impacts • Advance “Local” service option (serve all stations). • Ability to attract new riders • Increase frequency of VRE service to 20 Service Plans • Operating costs minutes.
• Operate within existing freight railroad • For extension alternatives discontinue service operating agreements to Broad Run station. • Physical suitability and access • Recommended sites vary by refined Station Locations • Land use and economic development alternative. • Environmental considerations • Capital costs
Alignment/Route • Minimal disruption to NS operations • Analyze different terminus options.
• Ability to attract new riders • Physical suitability Equipment Maintenance • End-of-line site identified for each refined • Minimal disruption to NS operations and Storage Facility alternative. • Environmental considerations Initial Alternatives
Annual 2040 Daily Capital Cost Alternative O&M Cost Diagram Ridership1 (2016$)2 (2016$)
Existing Service 9,140 --3 $29 M (16 trains per day)
Enhanced Service Options: 6 additional daily trains (22 trains per day)
Broad Run Terminus 14,010 $300 M $36 M
Extension & Broad 13,680 $550 - 650 M $48 M Run (Split Service)
Extension 14,720 $550 - 650 M $45 M
Extension + Off- 15,920 $570 - 680 M $72 M Peak Shuttle
The best performing alternatives advanced for detailed analysis. Refined Alternatives
Annual Alternative 2040 Daily Capital Cost O&M Cost Diagram (Trains per Day) Ridership1 (2016$)2 (2016$)
Existing Service 10,220 --3 $29 M (16) Broad Run Terminus (Relocated) 15,350 $345 M $36 M (22) Innovation Terminus 15,820 $580 - $633 M $37 M (22)
Gainesville Terminus 16,100 $572 - $616 M $40 M (2 stations) (22)
Gainesville Terminus 16,340 $592 - 631 M $40 M (3 stations) (22)
Haymarket Terminus 16,460 $612 - 660 M $45 M (22)
1. VRE/MWCOG Travel Demand Model: Initial Alternatives as of April 2016 and Refined Alternatives as of September 2016. 2. Initial alternatives capital cost includes rolling stock and train maintenance and storage facility (MSF). Low range assumes construction of 1 additional track (2 tracks total) and full 100 foot right- of-way (ROW); high range assumes construction of 2 additional tracks (3 tracks total) and full 100 foot ROW. 3. Capital costs associated with existing service TBD. Note: ALX: Alexandria Station; BRU: Broad Run/Airport Station; GVL: Gainesville Station; HAY: Haymarket Station; INV: Innovation/Sudley Station; MSS: Manassas Station; PWS: Prince William Station; WAS: Union Station. 2015 Manassas Line 2040 GHX Stations Ridership Potential 2040 2040 Manassas Line Refined Alternatives 18,000 16,100 16,340 16,460 15,350 15,820 15,000 Existing Service Span 5:00 AM - 8:00 PM 12,000 Existing Service 10,220 (16 trains per day) Trains every 30 minutes during peak period 9,000 Daily Ridership Daily 6,000
Enhanced Service Options: 3,000 6 additional daily trains (22 trains per day)
0 Broad Run Innovation Gainesville Gainesville Haymarket Existing Service Terminus Terminus (2 Stations) (3 Stations) Terminus (16) Relocates Broad Run (Relocated) (22) (22) (22) (22) Source: VRE/MWCOG (22) Broad Run Terminus station Travel Demand Model 2016 (Relocated) (22) Expands existing yard Capital Cost $612 to Realigns Manassas Line $700 $592 to $580 to $572 to $660 M to Innovation terminus $633 M $612 M $631 M $600 Innovation Terminus Eliminates Broad Run station $500 New end-of-line yard $400 $345
Realigns Manassas Line Millions to Gainesville - Prince $300 Gainesville Terminus William Station terminus Eliminates Broad Run $200 (2 stations) station $100 New end-of-line yard Total Estimated Capital Cost (2016$) Estimated Capital Total $0 Realigns Manassas Line Broad Run Innovation Gainesville Gainesville Haymarket Existing Service Terminus Terminus (2 Stations) (3 Stations) Terminus to Gainesville - US 29 (16) (Relocated) (22) (22) (22) (22) Gainesville Terminus terminus (22) Eliminates Broad Run Source: VRE cost estimates 2016 (3 stations) station New end-of-line yard Operations and Maintenance Cost $50 Realigns Manassas Line $45 to Haymarket terminus $40 $40 $40 Haymarket Terminus Eliminates Broad Run $36 $37 station
New end-of-line yard $30 $29
Note: ALX: Alexandria Station; BRU: Broad Run/Airport Station; GVL: Gainesville Station; HAY: Haymarket Station; INV: Innovation/Sudley Station; MSS: Manassas Station; PWS: Prince William Station; WAS: Union Station
Millions $20
$10 Annual O&M Cost (2016$) Annual
$0 Broad Run Innovation Gainesville Gainesville Haymarket Existing Service Terminus Terminus (2 Stations) (3 Stations) Terminus (16) (Relocated) (22) (22) (22) (22) (22)
Note: Operating costs based on VRE FY15 average cost per train mile Source: VRE cost estimates 2016 Refined Station and Yard Sites
Source: GIS Data Prince William County 2015. Broad Run Station Constraints Existing Conditions
Broad Run Yard Expansion
• Expansion of existing storage tracks and additional storage tracks needed to accommodate longer and more trains. • Floodplain and airport limit expansion of the yard to the west and east. • Extension of existing storage tracks for longer trains encroaches on platform. • Expansion storage tracks for more tracks eliminates platform altogether. • Current Broad Run station and parking closed. • New relocated Broad Run station near Godwin Drive and Prince William Parkway. • Expansion would accommodate 12 ten-car trainsets plus spares.
Source: Google Earth Refined Station and Yard Sites Broad Run Terminus (Relocated) Innovation Terminus
Gainesville Terminus (Two Options) Haymarket Terminus Refined Alternatives Broad Run Terminus (Relocated) Innovation Terminus • Expand existing • Opportunity for Broad Run yard to mixed-use accommodate 12 station area ten-car trainsets development plus spares • Requires track • Relocated station realignment for east of Manassas station platform Regional Airport • Close Broad Run • Vehicular access station and yard from Prince William Parkway Proposed Innovation or Godwin Drive Yard • Opportunity for mixed-use station Proposed Manassas area development Innovation Manassas Station Station Station
Proposed Broad Run Station Closed Broad Run Station; Expanded Broad Run Yard
Gainesville Terminus (Two Options) Haymarket Terminus • 2 station option (A) • Requires track realignment for • 3 station option (B) Proposed station platform • Opportunity to Haymarket Yard • Pending anchor mixed-use development station proposals limit Proposed development available land Gainesville • Close Broad Run Yard Proposed • Greatest potential station and yard for environmental B Haymarket A/B Station impacts Proposed Proposed Gainesville Gainesville • Station or yard in Station(s) Station Rural Crescent would require a Proposed Proposed Public Facility Innovation Manassas Innovation Manassas Review Station Station Station Station • Close Broad Run station and yard
All refined alternatives assume 22 daily trains at 20 minute headways during morning and evening peak periods. Each alternative assumes an end-of-line yard. Cost per Rider
Broad Run Innovation Gainesville Terminus Haymarket Existing Service Terminus Terminus Terminus (Relocated) 2 stations 3 stations
Revenue Trains 16 22 22 22 22 22
Daily Riders (2040)1 10,220 15,350 15,820 16,100 16,340 16,460
Total Capital Cost (2016$) (millions)2 -- $345 M $580 - $633 M $572 - $616 M $592 - $631 M $612 - $660 M
Total Operations & Maintenance Cost (2016$) (millions) -- $36 M $37 M $40 M $40 M $45 M
Cost per Rider
Operating Cost per Rider ($)3 $11.31 $9.34 $9.23 $9.98 $9.83 $10.89
Capital Cost per Rider ($)4 N/A5 $3.03 $5.44 $5.53 $5.51 $5.80
Total Cost per Rider ($) N/A5 $12.37 $14.66 $15.51 $15.35 $16.69
Incremental Cost per Incremental Rider vs. Existing Service
Incremental Operating Cost per Incremental Rider N/A $5.44 $5.43 $7.68 $7.38 $10.22
Incremental Capital Cost per Incremental Rider N/A $9.06 $15.36 $15.14 $14.72 $15.30
Incremental Total Cost per Incremental Rider N/A $14.49 $20.79 $22.82 $22.10 $25.52
1. VRE/MWCOG Travel Demand Model September 2016. 2. Total capital cost assumes stations, construction of 1 additional track (2 tracks total), equipment maintenance and storage facility, and rolling stock (diesel locomotives, cab cars, can coaches including spares). 3. Operating costs based on VRE FY15 average cost per train mile. 4. Annualized capital cost based on FTA useful life estimates and assume 251 service days/year. 5. Capital costs associated with existing service TBD.