GATESHEAD & NEWCASTLE
STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT
FINAL REPORT
Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...... 9
1.1 INTRODUCTION...... 9 1.2 UNDERSTANDING THE HOUSING MARKET ...... 9 1.3 MIGRATION & COMMUTING PATTERNS...... 10 1.4 THE NEWCASTLE AND GATESHEAD MARKET ...... 10 1.5 THE ECONOMIC CONTEXT ...... 11 1.6 POPULATION PROJECTIONS ...... 12 1.7 FUTURE POPULATION CHANGE...... 13 1.8 THE ACTIVE HOUSING MARKET...... 14 1.9 THE CURRENT HOUSING STOCK ...... 15 1.10 MAKING BEST USE OF THE STOCK ...... 17 1.11 THE NEEDS OF SPECIFIC HOUSEHOLD GROUPS...... 17 1.12 HOUSEHOLDS WITH SUPPORT NEEDS ...... 17 1.13 THE HOUSING NEEDS OF OLDER PEOPLE ...... 18 1.14 BLACK & MINORITY ETHNIC (BME) HOUSEHOLDS ...... 18 1.15 GYPSY AND TRAVELLERS AND TRAVELLING SHOWPEOPLE ...... 19 1.16 STUDENTS ...... 19 1.17 FUTURE HOUSING DEMAND...... 19 1.18 AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED AND SUPPLY...... 20 1.19 KEY ISSUES FOR FUTURE STRATEGY AND DELIVERY...... 22 1.20 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 23 1.21 PROPERTY SIZE TARGETS ...... 24 2 INTRODUCTION ...... 25
2.1 BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT TO THE NEWCASTLE GATESHEAD SHMA...... 25 2.2 PRIMARY DATA COLLECTION ...... 25 2.3 THE TYNE & WEAR SHMA...... 25 2.4 WHAT IS A STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT?...... 26 2.5 THE SHMA GUIDANCE ...... 26 2.6 ENSURING A ROBUST AND CREDIBLE SHMA ...... 28 2.7 THE HOUSING MARKET PARTNERSHIP...... 29 2.8 THE NEWCASTLE AND GATESHEAD OFFICER PROJECT TEAM ...... 30 2.9 THE SHMA REPORT STRUCTURE ...... 30 2.10 DATA SOURCES...... 32 2.11 DATA BENCHMARKING...... 32 2.12 GLOSSARY OF TERMS ...... 33 3 THE CURRENT LOCAL HOUSING MARKET...... 34
3.1 INTRODUCTION...... 34 3.2 IDENTIFYING HOUSING MARKET BOUNDARIES ...... 34 3.3 THE NORTH EAST REGIONAL CONTEXT ...... 35 3.4 HOUSING MARKET BOUNDARIES IN THE NORTH EAST REGION...... 36 3.5 MIGRATION PATTERNS...... 37 3.6 TRAVEL TO WORK PATTERNS...... 43 3.7 THE NEWCASTLE AND GATESHEAD MARKET ...... 44 4 GATESHEAD & NEWCASTLE STRATEGIC CONTEXT...... 45
4.2 THE GATESHEAD AND NEWCASTLE STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP ...... 45 4.3 HOUSING ALLOCATION...... 46 4.4 HOMELESSNESS ...... 47 4.5 EMPTY PROPERTIES ...... 49 4.6 SUPPORTING PEOPLE ...... 49 4.7 THE PRIVATE SECTOR...... 51 4.8 THE NEEDS OF SPECIFIC HOUSEHOLD GROUPS...... 51 4.9 REGENERATION...... 53
2 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
5 DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT & FORECASTS ...... 55
5.1 INTRODUCTION...... 55 5.2 THE DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE (1999‐2009)...... 55 5.3 THE FUTURE POPULATION (2008‐2033)...... 58 5.4 NEWCASTLE POPULATION CHANGE ...... 58 5.5 GATESHEAD POPULATION CHANGE...... 60 5.6 IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION CHANGE...... 62 5.7 HOUSEHOLD PROFILES (1991 – 2001)...... 62 5.8 FORECAST CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLDS...... 66 5.9 KEY POINTS...... 67 6 ECONOMIC DRIVERS OF DEMAND...... 68
6.1 INTRODUCTION...... 68 6.2 LABOUR DEMAND ...... 69 6.3 LABOUR SUPPLY...... 73 6.4 COMMUTERS...... 76 6.5 INCOME ...... 79 6.6 EXISTING HOUSEHOLDS INCOMES AND HOUSING COSTS ...... 80 6.7 NEW FORMING HOUSEHOLDS INCOMES AND HOUSING COSTS...... 82 6.8 BME HOUSEHOLDS INCOMES...... 83 6.9 SKILLS AND EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT ...... 85 6.10 KEY POINTS:...... 86 7 THE CURRENT HOUSING STOCK ...... 87
7.1 INTRODUCTION...... 87 7.2 THE HOUSING STOCK...... 87 7.3 TENURE PROFILE...... 88 7.4 TYPE PROFILE ...... 91 7.5 SIZE PROFILE ...... 92 7.6 INTERMEDIATE HOUSING ...... 94 7.7 SECOND HOMES ...... 94 7.8 PROPERTY CONDITION AND FACILITIES ...... 95 7.9 OVERCROWDING AND UNDER‐OCCUPATION ...... 98 7.10 NEWCASTLE UNDER AND OVER‐OCCUPATION...... 99 7.11 GATESHEAD UNDER AND OVER‐OCCUPATION ...... 100 7.12 SHARED HOUSING & COMMUNAL ESTABLISHMENTS...... 101 7.13 KEY POINTS...... 102 8 THE ACTIVE MARKET...... 103
8.1 INTRODUCTION...... 103 8.2 THE UK HOUSING MARKET...... 103 8.3 HOUSE PRICES...... 103 8.4 THE MORTGAGE MARKET...... 105 8.5 AFFORDABILITY ISSUES ...... 107 8.6 THE ESTATE AGENTS PERSPECTIVE...... 110 8.7 ENTRY SALES LEVELS IN NEWCASTLE AND GATESHEAD...... 110 8.8 PURCHASE INCOME THRESHOLDS ...... 111 8.9 INTERMEDIATE HOUSING COSTS...... 112 8.10 SOCIAL RENTING COSTS...... 113 8.11 PRIVATE SECTOR RENTAL COSTS ...... 114 8.12 RENTAL INCOME THRESHOLDS ...... 115 8.13 VACANCIES, TURNOVER RATES AND AVAILABLE SUPPLY BY TENURE ...... 116 8.14 TURNOVER RATES ...... 117
3 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
9 THE HOUSING REQUIREMENTS OF SPECIFIC GROUPS ...... 118
9.1 INTRODUCTION...... 118 9.2 HOUSEHOLDS WITH SUPPORT NEEDS ...... 118 9.3 THE HOUSING NEEDS OF OLDER PEOPLE ...... 120 9.4 BLACK MINORITY ETHNIC HOUSEHOLDS ...... 125 9.5 GYPSY AND TRAVELLER & TRAVELLING SHOW PEOPLE HOUSEHOLDS...... 126 9.6 STUDENTS ...... 126 10 THE FUTURE HOUSING MARKET...... 128
10.1 INTRODUCTION...... 128 10.2 FUTURE SIZE OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING ...... 128 10.3 NEWCASTLE ...... 128 10.4 GATESHEAD ...... 129 10.5 CURRENT AND FUTURE DEMAND FOR MARKET HOUSING ...... 131 10.6 OVERALL LEVEL OF DEMAND ...... 134 10.7 HOUSING COMPLETIONS ...... 134 11 HOUSING NEED ...... 135
11.1 INTRODUCTION...... 135 11.2 HOMELESSNESS ...... 135 11.3 HOUSING REGISTER ...... 136 12 CLG NEEDS ASSESSMENT MODEL STRUCTURE ...... 138
12.1 INTRODUCTION...... 138 12.2 THE CLG NEEDS ASSESSMENT MODEL STRUCTURE ...... 138 12.3 NEWCASTLEGATESHEAD NEEDS ASSESSMENT MODEL...... 139 12.4 STAGE 2 – FUTURE NEED (GROSS PER YEAR) ...... 140 12.5 STAGE 3 – AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY...... 141 12.6 COMBINED AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEEDS MODEL...... 144 12.7 AFFORDABLE NEEDS ASSESSMENT ...... 145 13 PLANNING AND DELIVERY...... 146
13.1 LAND AND AFFORDABLE HOUSING DELIVERY ...... 146 13.2 AFFORDABLE HOUSING ...... 146 13.3 LOW COST MARKET HOUSING...... 147 13.4 HOUSING PROVISION, DEMAND AND NEED...... 147 13.5 IMPLICATIONS FOR TARGET SETTING ...... 148 13.6 BALANCING HOUSING MARKETS ...... 149 13.7 SOCIAL RENTED ACCOMMODATION ...... 149 13.8 INTERMEDIATE MARKET HOUSING...... 149 13.9 TENURE MIX TARGETS ...... 150 13.10 PROPERTY TYPE AND SIZE TARGETS ...... 151 13.11 FUTURE SIZE TARGETS BY TENURE ...... 152 13.12 PERPETUITY ...... 153 13.13 OFF SITE PROVISION / COMMUTED SUMS ...... 153 13.14 NEEDS DISTRIBUTION BY SUB‐AREA, TENURE TYPE, SIZE AND LOCATION ...... 153 14 STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION...... 154
14.1 THE HOUSING MARKET PARTNERSHIP...... 154 14.2 CONSULTATION WITH THE PARTNERSHIP...... 154 14.3 STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION...... 155 14.4 RESPONSE TO CONSULTATION ...... 155
4 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
15 UPDATING THE STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT ...... 156
15.1 INTRODUCTION...... 156 15.2 UPDATING THE CLG NEEDS ASSESSMENT MODEL ...... 157 15.3 UPDATING OTHER SECONDARY DATA...... 157 15.4 UPDATING THE PRIMARY SURVEY DATA...... 157 15.5 MONITORING AND COMMUNICATING CHANGES TO THE SHMA...... 158 15.6 PLANS TO FULLY REVISE THE NEWCASTLE AND GATESHEAD SHMA ...... 158 15.7 MARKET TRIGGERS...... 158 16 BIBLIOGRAPHY ...... 159
5 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
TABLES Table 1‐1 Future Market Sector Delivery by Size ...... 20 Table 1‐2 Annual Affordable Housing Shortfall...... 20 Table 1‐3 Affordable Housing / Tenure Mix Targets ...... 21 Table 1‐4 Newcastle & Gateshead Affordable Delivery by Size ...... 21 Table 2‐1 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Core Outputs ...... 28 Table 2‐2 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Process Checklist ...... 29 Table 3‐1 Household Movements by Area, 2000 – 2001 (including from Overseas)...... 37 Table 3‐2 Newcastle Net Migration Balance by age groups 2000 – 2001...... 38 Table 3‐3 Gateshead Net Migration Balance by age groups 2000 – 2001 ...... 38 Table 3‐4 Annual average Newcastle upon Tyne moves (mid 2004 to mid 2009)...... 39 Table 3‐5 Annual Average Gateshead Moves (mid 2004 to mid 2009)...... 39 Table 3‐6 In‐Migration (People) ...... 40 Table 3‐7 Travel to Work Patterns ...... 43 Table 3‐8 Travel to Work Patterns ...... 44 Table 5‐1 Population Change, 1999‐2009...... 55 Table 5‐2 Population Change by Age Group (%) – 1999‐2009 ...... 57 Table 5‐3 Newcastle Population Change, 2008 – 2033...... 58 Table 5‐4 Newcastle Population Age Band Forecast, 2008 – 2033...... 58 Table 5‐5 Numbers of 65+ in Newcastle, 2008 ‐ 2033 ...... 59 Table 5‐6 Gateshead Population Change, 2008 – 2033 ...... 60 Table 5‐7 Gateshead Population Age Band Forecast, 2008 – 2033 ...... 61 Table 5‐8 Numbers of 65+ in Gateshead, 2008 ‐ 2033...... 61 Table 5‐9 Household Growth 1991 – 2001 ...... 63 Table 5‐10 Change of Household Types in Newcastle (1991 to 2001)...... 63 Table 5‐11 Change of Household Types in Gateshead (1991 to 2001) ...... 64 Table 5‐12 Newcastle Household Composition (2010) ...... 64 Table 5‐13 Gateshead Household Composition (2010) ...... 64 Table 5‐14 Forecast Change in Households in Newcastle, 2006 – 2031 ...... 66 Table 5‐15 Forecast Change in Households in Gateshead, 2006 – 2031...... 67 Table 6‐1 Employment Change, 1998‐2008...... 69 Table 6‐2 Employment & Unemployment Rates, 2008‐2009 ...... 74 Table 6‐3 CORE Weekly Income Data for New Council Tenants ...... 80 Table 6‐4 Gross Annual Income of Existing Households ...... 80 Table 6‐5 Equity of Existing Owner Occupiers ...... 81 Table 6‐6 Existing Households Rent / Mortgage Costs (Per Month)...... 81 Table 6‐7 Annual Income of New Forming Households...... 82 Table 6‐8 New Forming Rent / Mortgage Costs (Per Month) ...... 82 Table 6‐9 New Forming Households Deposit...... 83 Table 6‐10 Residents Maximum Purchase Price ...... 83 Table 6‐11 Newcastle Gross Annual Income of BME Households ...... 84 Table 6‐12 Gateshead Gross Annual Income of BME Households...... 84 Table 7‐1 Housing Stock Numbers – (1991, 2001 & 2010)...... 87 Table 7‐2 Current Tenure of Existing Stock (%)...... 89 Table 7‐3 Your Homes Newcastle Stock (General Needs) by Type & Number of Bedrooms...... 90 Table 7‐4 Gateshead Local Authority Stock (General Needs) by Type & Number of Bedrooms...... 90 Table 7‐5 Type of Current Accommodation...... 92 Table 7‐6 Number of Bedrooms in Current Property...... 93 Table 7‐7 Newcastle Reason For Inadequacy...... 97 Table 7‐8 Gateshead Reason For Inadequacy ...... 98 Table 7‐9 Newcastle Under and Over‐ Occupation (%) by Tenure...... 100 Table 7‐10 Gateshead Under and Over‐ Occupation (%) by Tenure...... 100 Table 7‐11 Communal Establishments...... 101 Table 8‐1 Land Registry Volume of Sales Data From October 2010...... 105 Table 8‐2 Gross Mortgage Lending ...... 106 Table 8‐3 Loans for house purchase and re‐mortgage ...... 106 Table 8‐4 Loans to first‐time buyers 2009/2010...... 107 Table 8‐5 House Price to Income Ratios (2007) ...... 108
6 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
Table 8‐6 Working Households Unable to Buy...... 108 Table 8‐7 Lower Quartile House Prices to Lower Quartile Income Ratios ...... 109 Table 8‐8 Newcastle Lower Quartile Sales Levels (£) in – September 2010...... 111 Table 8‐9 Gateshead Lower Quartile Sales Levels (£) in – September 2010...... 111 Table 8‐10 Newcastle Purchase Single Income Thresholds 2010...... 112 Table 8‐11 Gateshead Purchase Single Income Thresholds 2010...... 112 Table 8‐12 Average Weekly RSL Rents, 2009 by bed size ...... 113 Table 8‐13 Average Weekly LA Rents, 2009 by bed size ...... 113 Table 8‐14 Average Private Weekly Rents (£) 2008 ...... 114 Table 8‐15 Newcastle Average and Entry Rent Levels, September 2010 (£ p/m)...... 114 Table 8‐16 Gateshead Average and Entry Rent Levels, September 2010 (£ p/m) ...... 114 Table 8‐17 Newcastle Rental Income Thresholds – September 2010...... 115 Table 8‐18 Gateshead Rental Income Thresholds – September 2010 ...... 116 Table 8‐19 Vacant Dwelling Stock 1991‐2010...... 116 Table 8‐20 Newcastle Right to Buy & Demolition ...... 117 Table 8‐21 Gateshead Right to Buy & Demolition (3 years)...... 117 Table 9‐1 Types of Facilities / Services Needed (Gateshead)...... 119 Table 9‐2 Types of Facilities / Services Needed (Newcastle) ...... 120 Table 9‐3 Tenure of Accommodation Occupied by Older People (%)...... 121 Table 9‐4 Type of General Stock Occupied by Older People (%)...... 121 Table 9‐5 Size of Accommodation Currently Occupied by Older People ...... 122 Table 9‐6 Type of Accommodation Required by Older People ...... 122 Table 9‐7 Tenure of accommodation required by moving households aged 60+...... 123 Table 9‐8 Type by Tenure for Households aged 60+ (Newcastle)...... 123 Table 9‐9 Type by Tenure for Households aged 60+ (Gateshead) ...... 124 Table 9‐10 Size of Housing Required by Existing Households aged 60+ (%) ...... 124 Table 9‐11 Ethnic Origin...... 125 Table 10‐1 Newcastle Social Stock, Waiting List Need and Social Turnover ...... 128 Table 10‐2 Gateshead Social Stock, Waiting List Need and Social Turnover...... 129 Table 10‐3 Future Affordable Sector Delivery by Size...... 131 Table 10‐4 Newcastle Annual Market Housing Supply / Demand by Size ...... 132 Table 10‐5 Gateshead Annual Market Housing Supply / Demand by Size...... 133 Table 10‐6 Housing Completions (Net) 2004/05 ‐2009/10 ...... 134 Table 11‐1 Unsuitable Housing ...... 135 Table 11‐2 Number of Households on the Register by Size Required...... 137 Table 12‐1 Overcrowded and Concealed Households ...... 139 Table 12‐2 Current Housing Need (Gross)...... 140 Table 12‐3 Time of Move – Concealed Households...... 140 Table 12‐4 Future Need (Gross per Year)...... 141 Table 12‐5 New Affordable Housing Supply (HSSA) 2008 to 2010...... 141 Table 12‐6 2007 to 2010 Right to Buy & Demolition ...... 142 Table 12‐7 Council Social Rent Re‐let Supply (HSSA 2008 to 2010) ...... 142 Table 12‐8 RSL Rent Re‐let Supply (HSSA & CORE 2008 to 2010) ...... 143 Table 12‐9 Affordable Housing Supply...... 143 Table 12‐10 Annual Affordable Need and Supply ...... 145 Table 13‐1 Private Market Demand ...... 148 Table 13‐2 Future Delivery by Tenure...... 152
7 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
FIGURES Fig. 1‐1 Internal Movement & Commuting % (1999‐2000)...... 10 Fig. 1‐2 Average Gross Weekly Pay, 2009 ...... 11 Fig. 1‐3 Percentage Population Change by Age Group – 1999‐2009 ...... 12 Fig. 1‐4 Population % Change by Age Band, 2008‐2033 ...... 13 Fig. 1‐5 Average House Prices by Type, Q2 2010...... 14 Fig. 1‐6 Housing stock numbers (1991, 2001 and 2010)...... 15 Fig. 1‐7 Newcastle Tenure Profile (%) ...... 15 Fig. 1‐8 Gateshead Tenure Profile (%) ...... 16 Fig. 1‐9 Newcastle Property Size by Tenure...... 16 Fig. 1‐10 Gateshead Property Size by Tenure ...... 17 Fig. 3‐1 Net –Migration to Newcastle (June 2002‐June 2008)...... 41 Fig. 3‐2 Net –Migration to Gateshead (June 2002‐June 2008) ...... 42 Fig. 5‐1 Age Structure Breakdown, 2009 ...... 56 Fig. 5‐2 Percentage Population Change by Age Group – 1999‐2009 ...... 56 Fig. 5‐3 Comparison of ONS Population Projections for Newcastle upon Tyne...... 60 Fig. 5‐4 Average Number of People per Household, 2001...... 65 Fig. 5‐5 Proportion of Female and Male headed HRP Households...... 65 Fig. 5‐6 2006 Based CLG Household Size Trends and Projections (2006‐2029)...... 66 Fig. 6‐1 Indexed Employment Growth, 1998‐2008 (1998 = 100)...... 70 Fig. 6‐2 Occupational Structure, 1998‐2008 ...... 71 Fig. 6‐3 Levels of Population by Occupation Group (2008‐2009) ...... 72 Fig. 6‐4 ABI Employment by Broad Sector, 1998 ‐ 2008 ...... 73 Fig. 6‐5 JSA Claimant %‐ May 2010 ...... 75 Fig. 6‐6 Key Out of Work Benefit Claimants (%), November 2009...... 75 Fig. 6‐7 Level of Retired Population...... 76 Fig. 6‐8 Commuting Distances of Residents, 2001...... 77 Fig. 6‐9 Commuters Mode of Transport...... 78 Fig. 6‐10 Average Gross Weekly Pay, 2009 ...... 79 Fig. 6‐11 Average and Lower Quartile Earnings 2004‐2009 per week...... 79 Fig. 6‐12 Educational Attainment (NVQ) (2008) ...... 85 Fig. 7‐1 2001 Housing Tenure (%) ...... 88 Fig. 7‐2 Household Tenure Change, 1991 – 2001 ...... 89 Fig. 7‐3 Housing Type (2001)...... 91 Fig. 7‐4 Housing Size ...... 92 Fig. 7‐5 Newcastle Property Size by Tenure...... 93 Fig. 7‐6 Gateshead Property Size by Tenure ...... 94 Fig. 7‐7 Property Condition – Lack of Facilities ...... 96 Fig. 7‐8 Occupancy Levels ...... 99 Fig. 8‐1 Average House Prices by Type, Q2 2010...... 103 Fig. 8‐2 Average House Prices ‐ 2005 to 2010...... 104 Fig. 8‐3 Absolute Trend in Sales Q2 2005 to Q2 2010...... 104 Fig. 8‐4 Lower Quartile House Prices to Lower Quartile Income Ratios ...... 108 Fig. 8‐5 Properties by Council Tax Band...... 109
Appendices I Survey Form II Membership of the SHMA Housing Partnership and Stakeholder Consultation III Secondary Data Sources IV Glossary of Terms
† The definition of words marked with this symbol (†) can be found in the Glossary of Terms
8 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 Introduction 1.1.1 In June 2010, David Couttie Associates (DCA) was commissioned by Gateshead Borough Council and Newcastle City Council to carry out a Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA), including the analysis of local Housing Survey data, collected by the respective authorities. 1.1.2 The SHMA aims to inform policy development and investment decisions across Gateshead and Newcastle and the wider Tyne & Wear sub‐region. 1.1.3 It will provide an evidence base to: ‐ ¾ Establish the nature and level of current housing demand and need in each area; ¾ Obtain an understanding of the likely characteristics of future housing markets; ¾ Estimate the future number of households† requiring market and affordable housing; ¾ Inform policies aimed at providing the right mix of housing in the future – both market and affordable, including the size of affordable housing required; ¾ Understand the housing requirements of particular groups; ¾ Inform the Council’s Local Development Framework†(LDF) which will set out the spatial planning strategies; ¾ Inform policy making and investment decisions locally and in the North East region; ¾ Inform the Tyne & Wear SHMA. 1.1.4 The SHMA consisted of the following elements:‐ ¾ Primary data analysis from a face to face interview survey of 2,262 households; 1,102 in Newcastle and 1,160 in Gateshead conducted in August 2010 by Total Research an independent company commissioned by both authorities. ¾ Extensive secondary data analysis. 1.1.5 The SHMA was overseen and approved by a multi‐agency Housing Partnership comprising of representatives from the private and public sectors. The SHMA and Housing Survey data will remain valid until 2015 at which stage it will need to be fully updated as required in Guidance. The assessment should be monitored and updated annually.
1.2 Understanding the Housing Market 1.2.1 The SHMA Practice Guidance defined housing market areas as ‘geographical areas defined by household demand and preferences for housing’. They reflect key functional links between the places where people live and work. 1.2.2 Newcastle and Gateshead are within the Tyne & Wear City Region and is the area which looks primarily to Newcastle, the regional centre and to other Tyne & Wear authorities for access to jobs and services. 1.2.3 Housing markets do not respect administrative boundaries and may overlap with other local authority boundaries. Within a local authority area, housing markets may also comprise smaller, local sub‐markets and neighbourhoods.
9 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
1.3 Migration & Commuting Patterns 1.3.1 The pattern of household movement between Newcastle, Gateshead and other authorities has been analysed by examining 2001 Census data, National Health Service Patient Registration data for the period 2002‐2008 and the primary data from the 2010 local Housing Surveys. 1.3.2 The 2001 Census household migration data demonstrated a high level of self‐containment; 84.4% in Newcastle and 78.9% in Gateshead. 1.3.3 In total, 93.9% of moves into and within Newcastle and 93.4% into and within Gateshead were from within the five authorities in the Tyne & Wear sub‐region. 1.3.4 There were fairly low levels of movement to authorities at a greater distance. Cross‐ boundary movement is therefore principally to an adjoining authority. The main out‐ migrating group is family forming and moving households in the 25‐44 age range with children. 1.3.5 The NHS data shows an extremely high level of net out‐migration from Newcastle upon Tyne to North Tyneside (‐7,250 people) and Gateshead (‐3,800). Positive net levels of in‐migration were evident from Sunderland (+1,180 people). 1.3.6 The NHS data shows an extremely high level of net in‐migration to Gateshead from Newcastle upon Tyne (+3,800 people). Negative net levels of out‐migration were evident to all other areas.
1.4 The Newcastle and Gateshead Market 1.4.1 A housing market is normally one where 70% of moves take place within it. 1.4.2 The chart below shows the level of self containment in relation to household movement and commuting in each area Fig. 1‐1 Internal Movement & Commuting % (1999‐2000)
90 84.9 78.9 80 71.9 70
60 56.9
50
40
30
20
10
0 Newcastle Gateshead
Internal Migration Internal Commuting
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001 1.4.3 Although the evidence of household moves suggests that Newcastle and Gateshead could be considered to be a single market at 84.9% and 78.9% respectively. Gateshead has a much lower level of self‐ containment in relation to employment with 56.9% of residents working within the Borough. 1.4.4 71.9% of Newcastle Upon Tyne residents work within the City. The Census data and 2010 survey data for Gateshead shows very high levels of commuting to Newcastle. 1.4.5 When household moves and travel to work patterns are considered together Newcastle and Gateshead should be considered as part of the Tyne and Wear sub‐regional market.
10 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
1.5 The Economic Context 1.5.1 The ONS Annual Business Inquiry employee analysis (2008) revealed that there were 175,700 employee jobs in Newcastle and 92,400 in Gateshead (excluding self‐employed, government supported trainees and HM forces. 1.5.2 In Newcastle 122,600 jobs were full‐time and 53,100 were part‐time. In Gateshead, 66,900 were full time and 25,500 were part‐time. 1.5.3 In 2008, the most important sectors within the Newcastle economy were public admin, health and education (37.5%), banking, finance and IT (23.4%). Newcastle has seen a growth in these sectors in the 10 year period between 1997 and 2007. 1.5.4 In Gateshead, the most important sectors were public admin, health and education (26.4%) and distribution, hotels and restaurants (27.6%). 1.5.5 Both Newcastle and Gateshead has experienced a decline in the manufacturing sector, a decrease of 3.2% in Newcastle and 6.7% in Gateshead. This is compared to the decrease seen in Tyne & Wear (8.7%), the North East region (7.1%) and nationally (6.5%). 1.5.6 Newcastle and Gateshead have the largest proportion of its workforce in occupation groups 1 to 3 (managers & senior officials, professional occupations and associate professional & technical occupations) at 39.2% and 35.1% respectively. This is compared to the Tyne & Wear average (37.8%), the North East region (38.7%) but below the national average (44.6%). 1.5.7 This suggests that Newcastle in particular has a comparatively higher concentration of its labour force employed in higher wage sectors which may increase the demand for owner occupation and executive housing in the area. 1.5.8 In 2008/09, Newcastle had an employment rate of 61.5%, lower than Gateshead (71.3%) the Tyne & Wear average of 68.7%, the North East region (69.1%) and nationally (73.0%). 1.5.9 The unemployment rate in 2008/09 was 11.5% in Newcastle, higher than the Gateshead level of 8.5%, the Tyne & Wear average of 9.8% and the North East region average of 9.2%. 1.5.10 Income, and particularly household income, is one of the fundamental determinants in the ability of households to access home ownership or the private rented sector. 1.5.11 This is assessed by looking at average gross weekly pay by workplace (people who work in the area) and residence (people who live and work in the area) from the 2009 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE). This is shown in the graph below. Fig. 1‐2 Average Gross Weekly Pay, 2009
520
500
480
460
440
420
400
380 Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England Resident 421.6 438.1 428.2 438.8 496.0 Workplace 470.4 427.3 431.9 435.9 495.2
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1.5.12 The average residence pay within Newcastle of £421.6 is below the Gateshead level of £438.1, Tyne & Wear (£428.2), the North East region (£438.8) and nationally (£496.0), however average workplace pay in Newcastle is high at £470.4. 1.5.13 The fact that the wages of those working in Newcastle is higher than those living in the City, suggests that a relatively high proportion of people commute into the area for higher paid work but live outside the City.
1.6 Population Projections 1.6.1 Demographic change has a major impact on future demand in the wider housing market, the need for affordable housing and the requirements for future stock by type and size. 1.6.2 An important feature in measuring future housing requirements is to forecast what is likely to happen over the next decade so that provision for new housing can be planned. 1.6.3 Since 1999, Newcastle has experienced an increase in population of around 4.9% (+13,300 people). Gateshead has seen a small decrease of ‐1.3% (‐2,500). 1.6.4 The 2009 Mid Year population estimates were used. These Population Estimates reflect the local authority administrative boundaries that were in place on 30 June 2009. 1.6.5 The 2009 population was 284,300 people in Newcastle and 190,800 people in Gateshead. 1.6.6 Fig. 1‐3 highlights the percentage change in each age band between 1999 and 2029. Fig. 1‐3 Percentage Population Change by Age Group – 1999‐2009
40.0
30.0
20.0 Newcastle Gateshead 10.0 Tyne & Wear North East England 0.0
-10.0 0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65-84 85+
-20.0
Source: ONS 2009 Mid‐year Estimates 1.6.7 Increases in the 15‐24 and 85+ age groups were evident across all the benchmark areas. 1.6.8 In the 15‐24 age group there was a 35.2% increase in Newcastle and a 14.8% increase in Gateshead and in the 85+ age group there was a 22.4% increase in Newcastle and a 22.6% increase in Gateshead. 1.6.9 If historic trends persist, this pattern suggests that future population increases are likely to be increasingly underpinned by the growth in older age groups and those most associated with owner‐occupied properties. 1.6.10 The future population forecasts were based on the ONS 2008‐based sub‐national projections, published on the 27 May 2010. The projections reflect the local Government structure in place mid‐2008.
12 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
1.7 Future Population change 1.7.1 There is an overall predicted increase in the population of Newcastle of 40,400 between 2008 and 2033, 14.5% over the forecast period. This compares to an increase of 10.3% for the Tyne & Wear sub‐region. 1.7.2 The most significant feature in the population projections for Newcastle is the projected growth of the population in the over 65 age group, a rise of 39.0% by 2033 (16,000 people), lower than the 47.5% projected in Tyne and Wear. 1.7.3 There is an overall predicted increase in the population of Gateshead of 15,000 between 2008 and 2033, an increase of 7.9% over the forecast period. 1.7.4 In Gateshead the projected growth of the population in the over 65 age group, a rise of 39.8% by 2031 (17,500 people) is again a major feature. Both areas have very significant growth in the oldest groups in the over 65 population. 1.7.5 The bar chart below shows the population percent change by age band in Newcastle and Gateshead across the forecast period. Fig. 1‐4 Population % Change by Age Band, 2008‐2033
140.0 131.6
120.0
100.0 93.2
80.0
60.0
39.0 39.8 40.0 21.7 15.0 20.0 14.5 10.8 9.8 7.9 4.0 -0.5 0.0 -0.8 -4.0 -20.0 0-19 20-29 30-44 45-64 65+ 85+ Overall
Newcastle Gateshead
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS), 27 May 2010 1.7.6 Changes in the population structure will impact on demand for different house types and tenures. Local Development Documents will need to take account of the projected growth in demand in these sectors and the strategic implications of these projections, including:‐ ¾ The increase in the number of people in the 65+ age group will impact on the demand for market and affordable sheltered accommodation; ¾ As older people tend to remain in their family home after children have left home or after the loss of a partner there is a growing trend of under‐occupation in both sectors of the housing market; ¾ The significant increases in older householders (i.e. 85+) of 91% to 136% will have implications for support services, options for housing with support, extra care housing, long term suitability of accommodation, equity release schemes, adaptations, and other age related care requirements.
13 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
1.8 The Active Housing Market 1.8.1 The housing market is the context against which all the housing needs of the study area are set. In particular, house price information is the basis on which the “affordability†” of housing is measured for low‐income households. In essence, we are seeking to establish who can and cannot afford to enter and move within the housing market. 1.8.2 The crisis in the financial markets in 2008/09 has created difficulties in the economy, especially in the house building and estate agency sectors. It has created uncertainty in the housing market, leading to major falls in house sales, the scale of new development and in house prices. This will have an impact on future housing delivery. 1.8.3 The prospects for the market in 2010 will depend on how the UK economy evolves and mortgage lenders policies change, but forecasts are for further price falls in 2010 and 2011. 1.8.4 Fig. 1‐5 shows the average property prices by type of housing in the Land Registry database for the 2nd Quarter 2010. Fig. 1‐5 Average House Prices by Type, Q2 2010
£350,000
£300,000
£250,000
£200,000
£150,000
£100,000
£50,000
£0 Detached Semi Detached Terraced Flat / Maisonette Overall Newcastle £315,416 £191,350 £162,160 £137,514 £178,711 Gateshead £238,854 £144,172 £121,556 £86,962 £138,718 Tyne & Wear £254,852 £149,223 £129,447 £97,768 £129,142 North £249,063 £142,709 £111,290 £113,312 £150,192 England & Wales £328,778 £199,475 £186,704 £219,033 £230,562
Source: Land Registry Residential Property Price Report, Quarter 2 2010, © Crown Copyright 1.8.5 Fig. 1‐5 shows that the overall prices in Newcastle are generally higher than those in Gateshead, Tyne & Wear, the North East Region and nationally. 1.8.6 Overall between 2005 and 2010, house prices have decreased by ‐3.4% in Newcastle and ‐ 6.1% in Gateshead. However prices fluctuated over the period, rising steadily to Q3 2008 before falling through to Quarter 2 2009, followed by a rise each quarter up to quarter 1 2010. 1.8.7 Prices fell again in the most recent quarter of quarter 2 2010 and forecasts are for further falls in 2010 and 2011. 1.8.8 Sales levels in Newcastle and Gateshead decreased overall between 2005 and 2010 in line with declining sales levels seen across Tyne & Wear, the North East and nationally. 1.8.9 After a long period of economic growth and low levels of unemployment, this assessment has been conducted during a period of major economic uncertainty, particularly in the finance and housing markets. 1.8.10 The financial crisis in the mortgage markets has created a major fall in the availability of mortgages, especially to first time buyers who now need a deposit of 25%. This is now the key factor in affordability for new forming households.
14 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
1.9 The Current Housing Stock 1.9.1 The change in housing stock between 1991 and 2001 was analysed using Census data. The 2010 housing stock data was obtained from the respective local authorities Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix (HSSA). This is shown in the chart below. Fig. 1‐6 Housing stock numbers (1991, 2001 and 2010)
140,000 122,311 117,698 120,000 111,233
100,000 92,109 87,658 82,744 80,000 Newcastle Gateshead 60,000
40,000
20,000
0 Census Census
1991 2001 2010 HSSA
1.9.2 In total, between 1991 and 2010 the dwelling stock in Newcastle has had a net increase of approximately 11,078 dwellings (+10.0%), around 583 additional net units per annum. 1.9.3 The dwelling stock in Gateshead increased by 9,365 dwellings, 11.3% over this period, an average annual increase of 493 additional net units, +0.6%. 1.9.4 2001 Census recorded a level of owner‐occupation of 52.9% in Newcastle and 57.7% in Gateshead, both lower than the Tyne & Wear average (58.3%), the North East region (63.2%) and nationally (68.1%). 1.9.5 Both Newcastle and Gateshead had higher than average social housing stock (35.5% and 34.4% respectively), compared to 19.3% nationally, and the North East region (27.6%). 1.9.6 The level of private rented accommodation was 12.1% in Newcastle, higher than the benchmark areas but the level in Gateshead was much lower at 6.4%. 1.9.7 The tenure profile of each area is shown in the charts below: Fig. 1‐7 Newcastle Tenure Profile (%)
Newcastle
Living rent free , 1.1 Owner Occupation (No Mortgage), 20.7
Private rented , 12.1
Social Rented, 33.5
Owner Occupation (with a mortgage), 32.2 Shared ownership , 0.5
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001
15 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
Fig. 1‐8 Gateshead Tenure Profile (%)
Gateshead
Living rent free 1%
Private rented Owner Occupation 6% (No Mortgage) 22%
Social Rented 35%
Owner Occupation (with a mortgage) Shared ownership 36% 0%
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001 1.9.8 The survey data revealed that the average number of bedrooms was 3.8 bedrooms per household in Newcastle and 3.6 In Gateshead, higher than that found in other recent DCA surveys (2.9). 1.9.9 Fig. 1‐9 shows the market and social tenure split broken down by number of bedrooms (1, 2 and 3+ bedrooms). The data shows that the majority of stock in the Newcastle ‘market’ sector has 3+ bedrooms (66.3%). The social sector has a higher proportion of properties which have 1 or 2‐bedrooms (62.5%). Fig. 1‐9 Newcastle Property Size by Tenure
100%
90%
80% 37.5
70% 66.3 60%
% 50%
40%
30% 62.5
20% 33.7 10%
0% Market Social
1 & 2 Bed 3+ Bed
Source: 2010 Housing Survey
16 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
1.9.10 The data for Gateshead shows that the majority of stock in the ‘market’ sector has 3+ bedrooms (62.1%). Similar to Newcastle, the social sector has a higher proportion of properties with 1 or 2 ‐ bedrooms (65.3%). Fig. 1‐10 Gateshead Property Size by Tenure
100%
90% 34.7 80%
70% 62.1
60% 3+ Bed 50% 1 & 2 Bed 40% 65.3 30%
20% 37.9
10%
0% Market Social
Source: 2010 Housing Survey
1.10 Making Best use of the Stock 1.10.1 The high level of family units in the social rented sector is now in contrast to the changing nature of household formation, and there are over 9,000 properties under‐occupied by two or more spare bedrooms in this sector. 1.10.2 This is a significant issue for Housing Strategy to consider in both Councils, both to make best use of the housing stock and address the needs of over‐crowded families in this sector. 1.10.3 Although it is recognised that in practice this is difficult to achieve, addressing the under‐ occupation within the existing 3 and 4 bedroom social stock should be a strategic housing priority.
1.11 The Needs of Specific Household Groups 1.11.1 The Housing Act (2004) specified that specific consideration must be given to the differing needs of households. In addition, the SHMA Practice Guidance indicates that housing market partnerships should consider gathering information about the housing requirements of specific groups and that doing so will improve planning and housing policy.
1.12 Households with Support Needs ¾ The number of households containing at least one household member with a disability or limiting long term illness was 36,002 (30.3% of households) within Newcastle and 31.7% (27,867 households) within Gateshead; ¾ The highest incidence of disability / long term illness was walking difficulty affecting 58.7% of residents in these households;
17 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
¾ The main facility needed for disabled residents in Gateshead was bathroom adaptations at 21.8% followed by handrails / grab‐rails at 16.9%; ¾ The main facility / service needed in Newcastle was bathroom adaptations at 20.5% followed by ground floor toilet / shower at 16.8%; ¾ 84.4% (7,882 implied) of households in Gateshead and 83.9% in Newcastle (8,238 implied) stated that they could not afford to make the improvements required; ¾ Of the existing households planning a move within the next 3 years, 126 households in Newcastle expect supported housing, though based on a very small sample. No households in Gateshead expressed any interest in supported housing.
1.13 The Housing Needs of Older People ¾ ONS population projections predict an increase in the 65+ population between 2008 and 2033 of 16,000 people (+39.0%) in Newcastle and 13,400 (+39.8%) in Gateshead; ¾ The major growth is in the 85+ group, increasing by 91% and 136% respectively; ¾ Nearly 60% of older households planning a move in the next 3 years within the local authority area in which they currently live, require bungalow accommodation, over 2,150 units in total. ¾ The highest tenure demand in both areas was for Council rented accommodation. ¾ The main size requirement of those who were planning a move was for 2‐bed accommodation at 81.1% in Newcastle and 65.9% in Gateshead. ¾ 232 implied households in Newcastle and 73 implied households in Gateshead expressed an expectation for sheltered housing, all of whom expected to rent from a housing association. ¾ The data revealed that all 232 households in Newcastle expected sheltered housing in the affordable sector, 137 expected to rent from a Housing Association and 95 from the Council.
1.14 Black & Minority Ethnic (BME) Households ¾ Households from particular ethnic groups can differ in terms of their housing or accommodation requirements, particularly in relation to property size; ¾ The proportion of households whose ethnic origin is white British is 88.2% in Newcastle and 96.8% in Gateshead; ¾ In Newcastle, more BME households earning less than £10,000 (39.5%) compared to the whole Newcastle population (31.5%), and both are much higher than the corresponding UK average figure (20.3%). ¾ In Gateshead, a much lower proportion of BME households earned less than £10,000 (13.9%) compared to the whole Gateshead population (31.2%). ¾ Overall, new housing requirements should be met through initiatives to address the needs of the whole population.
18 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
1.15 Gypsy and Travellers and Travelling Showpeople ¾ Newcastle and Gateshead Councils, in partnership with other local authorities in Tyne & Wear were part of a sub‐regional Gypsy and Traveller and Travelling Showpeople Accommodation Needs Assessment, completed in February 2009; ¾ The assessment identified 14 authorised residential pitches in Gateshead and none in Newcastle; ¾ The Tyne & Wear Assessment indicated a need for 8 additional new pitches in Newcastle and 13 in Gateshead in the ten year period between 2008 and 2018.
1.16 Students ¾ The main Higher education (post 18) institutions which impact on the Newcastle and Gateshead area are Newcastle University and Northumbria University with almost 60,000 students; ¾ The Universities are major employers, and make a very significant contribution to the local economy and are critical therefore to future economic growth strategies. ¾ The Universities provide around 7,300 student accommodation units but the vast majority of students create significant housing demand in the private rented sector.
1.17 Future Housing Demand
Balancing Housing Markets 1.17.1 The turnover of the existing stock should meet 90% of all housing requirements. 1.17.2 Determining what this means for the future requirement for types of dwellings is complex. The scale of under‐occupation at 35.9% of all households in Newcastle and 32.7% in Gateshead is significant, but the type and size of dwelling that households demand is not necessarily driven by actual need, particularly in the market sector. 1.17.3 The requirement for the expected future growth in households can only be estimated in terms of the size of new dwellings. 1.17.4 Providing a more balanced housing stock should however be the key criteria for the authorities to be able to provide sustainable developments and communities and to support growth and regeneration strategies. 1.17.5 ‘Planning Policy Statement 3: Housing’ identifies the Government’s core objective of providing a variety of high quality market housing and addressing any shortfalls that apply in the market sector. Authorities are required to plan for a full range of types and sizes of market housing to meet the needs of the whole community, so that provision is made for family, single person, and multi‐person households. 1.17.6 Housing survey data suggests that there will be an annual total shortfall of 1,201 market units in Newcastle and 757 in Gateshead, after allowing for market housing turnover. 1.17.7 The shortfall is calculated from the Housing Survey data and is a guide to individual household plans and intentions, which may not be able to be realised. The individual authority allocations are to be regarded as minimum and could be exceeded, delivering more units into the market. There is potential for variance and these factors will need to be monitored annually.
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Market Stock Balance 1.17.8 Although the study areas have broad similarities, there are variations between sub‐areas within each local authority area in terms of the types of property required to meet current and future demand for market housing. 1.17.9 However, treating housing stock balance as a Borough or City‐wide market issue would contradict the fundamental requirement to carry out sustainable development and create sustainable communities. 1.17.10 Survey data showed that the most important factors which determine where households forming and existing households moving want to live are to be near their family, near work, where they have always lived and quality of the neighbourhood. These are the key elements of sustainable development and communities. 1.17.11 It is important therefore that future delivery addresses local demand, fills gaps in current stock types and assists in the creation of more sustainable communities. Providing for the growing older population is a key element for new delivery strategy, closely interlinked to the high level of under‐occupation. 1.17.12 In providing a guideline for future market housing development in Newcastle and Gateshead, consideration should be given to the scale of current family sized housing stock, demographic change, reducing household size and the levels and nature of in‐migration to support Growth Point and regeneration strategies. Table 1‐1 Future Market Sector Delivery by Size Bedroom Size (%) Area 1‐Bed 2‐Bed 3‐ Bed 4‐ Bed + Newcastle / 40 30 30 Gateshead
1.17.13 It is recommended that to create a more balanced and higher quality housing stock in the area, future development proportions could be for delivery of 40% one or two bedrooms, but mainly two, and 60% equally apportioned between three and four bedrooms.
1.18 Affordable Housing Need and Supply 1.18.1 The CLG Needs Assessment Model is used to calculate the annual shortfall of social housing units. Table 1‐2 Annual Affordable Housing Shortfall Re‐let / Re‐sale Affordable Affordable Need Supply Shortfall Newcastle / 3,978 3,805 173 Gateshead
1.18.2 Before any new unit delivery, there is a need for affordable housing of 173 units in excess of supply levels from stock turnover totalling 3,805 units each year across the Newcastle and Gateshead area. Affordable Housing and Tenure Mix Targets 1.18.3 Based on the robust evidence found in this assessment, the Local Development Framework could consider an affordable housing target of 15% across the area, subject to viability. 1.18.4 The final target level will be assessed through a separate viability assessment study.
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1.18.5 In view of the scale of need, subsidised affordable units should be negotiated on all suitable sites. Targets may however vary on a site by site basis. 1.18.6 Each site will need to be assessed individually, targets being subject to wider planning, economic viability, regeneration and sustainability considerations and will require a flexible approach to specific site negotiation. 1.18.7 Despite the recession and recent price falls, the increase in house prices over the last ten years has excluded many ‘first‐time buyers’ from the owner occupied market. 1.18.8 The 2010 Household Survey suggests that 87.5% of concealed households about to form cannot to buy based on income and mortgage lending policies and the requirement for large deposits. 1.18.9 PPS3† now requires the provision of tenure mix targets within affordable housing which may vary by location within the authority area to take account of demand, need and current affordable supply at local level. 1.18.10 Within the overall target, tenure mix targets at local level are very important to achieving site viability. 1.18.11 These target levels should be subject to a wider range of social stock supply and other planning, regeneration and development viability factors in each of the sub‐areas. Table 1‐3 Affordable Housing / Tenure Mix Targets Affordable Target Social Rent Intermediate
Newcastle/ 15%. 75% 25% Gateshead
Affordable Stock Size Targets
Social Rent 1.18.12 The 2010 Council data shows that one bedroom unit needs on the waiting list is 58.5% Newcastle and 59.7% in Gateshead. In reality however, size preference is for 2‐bedroom units. 1.18.13 RSL’s recognise this in their preference for funding two bedroom affordable units with greater flexibility, rather than one bedroom.
Intermediate Housing 1.18.14 Annual demand for intermediate housing was around 105 units in Newcastle and 28 units a year in Gateshead, all two bedroom properties. 1.18.15 A summary of the targets recommended for social and affordable housing by size in Newcastle and Gateshead are provided in the table below. Table 1‐4 Newcastle & Gateshead Affordable Delivery by Size Bedroom Size (%)
1 & 2‐Bedrooms 3 & 4 Bedrooms Social Rent 60 40 Intermediate 100 0
21 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
1.19 Key Issues for Future Strategy and Delivery
Economic Growth and Regeneration 1.19.1 The major strategic issues vital to the future growth and economic prosperity of the area are critically inter‐related to the quality of stock needed to improve the housing offer required to support their success. 1.19.2 There is a need to consider the impact of future demographic and planned economic growth changes as key drivers of the market and to provide stock to address future household formation change and supports economic growth and regeneration strategies. 1.19.3 The balance and quality of the existing housing stock, the nature of turnover, current and future demographic and household formation change and making best use of the existing stock are key factors in informing policies and their related targets for delivery. 1.19.4 The nature of new delivery is critical to overall improvement in the balance and quality of the housing offer available to support economic growth and prevent family out‐migration to adjoining areas.
Making Best use of the Existing Stock 1.19.5 Making the best use of the existing stock is a core Government objective and is a key aspect of sustainable development. 1.19.6 New development should meet gaps in the current stock and create secondary gains in improving stock flow in both sectors. There is a need for bungalows in both sectors to meet expressed demand from over half of all households over 60 who are planning to move in the next three years. 1.19.7 The requirement for the future should be to assist in improving the rate of turnover of family units, address under‐occupation and provide specialist accommodation to meet the changing requirements of the increasing older population.
Social Rented Sector 1.19.8 The existing stock contains a historically high level of social rented units, the turnover of which meets a high proportion of annual need, although there are high levels of under‐ occupation of three and four bedroom properties. 1.19.9 The scale of social stock under‐occupation will increase year on year if existing stock turnover is not improved. 1.19.10 More affordable units are required as social rented properties, both for new forming households and existing families. This stock however already exists and these household needs could be met through better re‐let turnover to meet priority needs. 1.19.11 New social unit delivery should therefore be targeted to meet the changing housing needs of the growing older population, particularly for bungalows and extra care accommodation to facilitate an improved flow of three and four bedroom properties. 1.19.12 This should also create a better flow one and two bedroom units, as households move to the size and type of stock that meets their needs.
Intermediate Housing 1.19.13 Meeting the needs of younger people forming their first home is also a key factor in retaining young, economically active households in the area. Generally around 83% to 92% of them have inadequate incomes and savings for a deposit to be able to purchase.
22 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
1.19.14 The proportion of intermediate housing is also important in order to be able to address site viability issues. There is a need to focus product options with developers to maximise the potential of this sector of the market.
Regeneration and Delivery Strategy 1.19.15 Delivery strategy should ensure that development critical to the growth and regeneration strategies are not constrained, particularly on small brownfield sites. 1.19.16 The requirement for affordable housing should focus on larger sites, probably over 25 units where viability will be easier to achieve.
1.20 Key Recommendations
Balancing the Housing Market ¾ Ensure that future new development provides a mix of housing types and sizes to address the impact of future demographic and household formation change and support Growth Point and regeneration strategies. ¾ Focus new delivery in market housing, meeting the need for middle market, 2 and 3 bedroom properties and larger units to prevent families out‐migrating to the adjoining areas. ¾ Develop policies for market housing so that new stock meets local demand not addressed by existing stock turnover to improve the range and quality of the housing offer.
Affordable Housing Targets ¾ Based on the evidence found in the SHMA and the 2010 Housing Survey, consideration should be given to an overall affordable housing target of 15%, negotiated from all sites of 15 units or more, subject to viability. ¾ Target levels will require to be ratified by Viability Assessment. ¾ Delivery of affordable housing for older people should be prioritised to provide a range of housing to meet the needs of the growing older population and targeted at local area level to address the under‐occupation in the general social rented stock.
Affordable Tenure Mix Targets ¾ Future tenure mix delivery has to take account of the existing social and intermediate stock levels and the ability of new households, unable to purchase in the local market. ¾ In Newcastle and Gateshead, the overall affordable tenure target balance to address local need could be set at 75% for social rent and 25% intermediate housing.
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1.21 Property Size Targets Social Rent ¾ In both Newcastle and Gateshead, consider social rented housing property size targets of 60% one and two bedroom flats and terraced houses to meet the needs of single, couple and small family households. 40% of units should be three four bedroom houses to address the needs of larger families. Intermediate Housing ¾ In both Newcastle and Gateshead, identified demand for shared equity affordable housing suggests that delivery should be 20% one and 80% two bedroom units. Market Housing ¾ Developers are expected to bring forward proposals which reflect demand in order to sustain balanced communities. ¾ It would be reasonable to consider providing policy guidance for future delivery in the market sector of 40% smaller units, mainly two bedroom flats and terraced houses, to meet the needs of single, couple and small family households. ¾ To address the needs of larger families and to provide a more balanced market sector stock in both areas, 60% of units should be equally apportioned between three and four bedroom houses. These proportions may vary by local sub‐area.
Housing Strategy ¾ Meeting the social rented accommodation requirements of families and those with priority needs should be as important as the larger scale numerical need for smaller units for single and couple households. ¾ Although it is recognised that in practice it is difficult to achieve, addressing the under‐occupation of over 9,000 three and four bedroom social rented properties should be a strategic housing priority across Newcastle and Gateshead. ¾ Housing strategies to make best use of the existing stock should be closely linked to new delivery projects for older people by providing positive incentives to facilitate higher turnover of family houses in the social sector. Older Persons Housing Needs To address the current and future growth in older households across all tenures, the on‐ going development of Older Persons Housing Strategies should consider:‐ ¾ The need for support services and adaptation required to enable people to remain in their own home; ¾ The type, scale and quality of existing sheltered stock in meeting today’s housing standards and preferences; ¾ The future need for ‘extra care’ accommodation for the growing frail elderly population.
24 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
2 INTRODUCTION
2.1 Background and Context to the Newcastle Gateshead SHMA 2.1.1 In June 2010, David Couttie Associates (DCA) was commissioned by Gateshead Borough Council and Newcastle City Council to carry out a Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA), including the analysis of local Housing Survey data, collected by the respective authorities. 2.1.2 The requirement of the SHMA is to produce the outputs identified in Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3) and the Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) Practice Guidance (CLG, 2007). 2.1.3 The key objectives of the SHMA are to enable the council to understand the nature and level of housing demand and need within the area. It provides a robust and credible assessment of the Gateshead and Newcastle housing market, which can be used to inform key housing, planning polices and strategies.
2.2 Primary Data Collection 2.2.1 Total Research an independent company, were commissioned by both authorities to conduct face to face interviews with residents to provide local primary data. 2,262 households were interviewed during August and September 2010; 1,102 in Newcastle and 1,160 in Gateshead. A copy of the survey form can be found at Appendix I. 2.2.2 The survey data has been structured into three sub‐areas in Newcastle and five in Gateshead. Newcastle City Council weighted the responses by tenure and property type to ensure that respondents were representative of the whole population.
2.3 The Tyne & Wear SHMA 2.3.1 A Tyne & Wear Strategic Housing Market Assessment was published in July 2010, of which Gateshead and Newcastle councils were key partners. The study was led by the Tyne & Wear Housing Partnership and developed in a close relationship with industry partners. 2.3.2 The Tyne & Wear SHMA provides an over‐arching SHMA for the sub‐region. The study gives an understanding of the nature and influence of the housing market and sub‐markets in the Tyne and Wear area and how Gateshead and Newcastle fit into the wider market. 2.3.3 The Tyne and Wear SHMA was undertaken using secondary data only whereas the Gateshead and Newcastle SHMA has used both secondary and primary data sources. By using primary data we are able to access information not available by only using secondary data. 2.3.4 Gateshead and Newcastle are to produce a joint Core Strategy. Publication for North Tyneside’s Core Strategy is scheduled for February 2011. They carried out their SHMA 2009 and although it can be considered as a single market on household moving patterns there are particularly strong links with Newcastle City. 2.3.5 This SHMA for Gateshead and Newcastle will draw comparisons with North Tyneside SHMA.
25 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
2.4 What is a Strategic Housing Market Assessment? 2.4.1 A SHMA is a collection of data (both primary and secondary) about all aspects of a housing market in a particular area. 2.4.2 The Gateshead and Newcastle SHMA, along with other research, is a crucial part of the evidence base for the Councils to review local housing strategies and Local Development Frameworks† and will inform the One Core Strategy currently in development. It will also inform the Council’s business planning processes, as well as helping to identify targets for investment. 2.4.3 The SHMA will also allow an assessment of housing demand and need in the area, based upon the definitions set out in Planning Policy Statement 3† (PPS3) and outlined below:
Housing Demand:‐ ‘The quantity of housing which households† are willing and able to buy or rent’
Housing Need:‐ ‘The quantity of housing required for households who are unable to access suitable housing without financial assistance’. In Annex G of the SHMA Practice Guidance the definition is expanded to those “who cannot afford to meet their housing needs in the market”. Housing Market Areas: Geographical areas defined by household demand and preferences for housing. They reflect the key functional linkages between places where people live and work.
Affordable Housing:‐ Social rented and intermediate† housing, provided to specified eligible households whose needs are not met by the market. Affordable housing should:‐ Meet the needs of eligible households including availability at a cost low enough for them to afford, determined with regard to local incomes and local house prices and include provision for the home to remain at an affordable price for future eligible households or, if these restrictions are lifted, for the subsidy to be recycled for alternative affordable housing provision.
Note: These definitions are adopted throughout the SHMA. 2.4.4 An assessment of housing demand and need is necessary from a spatial planning perspective to support affordable housing policies in development plans and to negotiate with developers, on developments that will require subsidy for affordable housing.
2.5 The SHMA Guidance 2.5.1 Communities and Local Government (CLG) published detailed guidance on SHMAs entitled ‘Strategic Housing Market Assessments Practice Guidance Version 2 (August 2007)’, referred to throughout the report hereafter as the ‘SHMA Practice Guidance’ 2.5.2 The SHMA Practice Guidance brings together and builds upon the key elements of previous guidance on housing market and housing needs assessment, including: ¾ Local Housing Needs Assessment: A Guide to Good Practice, DETR, 2000; ¾ Housing Market Assessment Manual, ODPM, 2004. 2.5.3 The new guidance sets out a framework that local authorities and regional bodies can follow to develop an in‐depth understanding of how housing markets operate. 2.5.4 The key objectives of the guidance are to:‐ ¾ Provide clear advice for practitioners on how to assess housing need and demand in their area;
26 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
¾ Enable local authorities and regions to gain an understanding of the characteristics of housing market areas and how they function. 2.5.5 The SHMA Practice Guidance specifies that a SHMA can contribute to the following areas:‐ ¾ Enabling regional bodies to develop long‐term strategic views of housing need and demand to inform regional spatial strategies and regional housing strategies; ¾ Enabling local authorities to think spatially about the nature and influence of the housing markets in respect to their local area; ¾ Providing robust evidence to inform policies aimed at providing the right mix of housing across the whole housing market – both market and affordable housing; ¾ Providing evidence to inform policies about the level of affordable housing required, including the need for different sizes, types and tenures of affordable housing; ¾ Supporting authorities to develop a strategic approach to housing through consideration of housing need and demand in all housing sectors – owner occupied, private rented and affordable – and an assessment of the key drivers and relationships within the housing market; ¾ Drawing together the bulk of the evidence required for local authorities to appraise strategic housing options including social housing allocation priorities, the role of intermediate housing products, stock renewal, conversion, demolition and transfer†; ¾ Ensuring the most appropriate and cost‐effective use of public funds.
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2.6 Ensuring a Robust and Credible SHMA 2.6.1 The SHMA Practice Guidance specifies that in line with Planning Policy Statement 12: Local Development Frameworks (PPS121), a SHMA should be considered robust and credible if at a minimum it provides all the core outputs outlined in Table 2‐1 below, which highlights the sources of each of the key estimates, and meets the requirements of all the process criteria as outlined in Table 2‐2 below. Table 2‐1 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Core Outputs Description of Output Location in the SHMA Report
Section 7 outlines the existing housing stock, specifically:‐
Estimates of current dwellings in terms of Sub‐Section 7.3 (Tenure Profile); 1 size, type, condition, tenure. Sub‐Section 7.4 (Type Profile) Sub‐Section 7.6 (Size Profile) Sub‐Section 7.8 (Stock Condition)
Analysis of past and current housing market trends including the balance Throughout the SHMA, a range of information is between supply and demand in different 2 provided about trends within the housing market, housing sectors and price / affordability†. specifically within sections 5, 6 and 8 Description of key drivers underpinning the housing market.
The ONS 2008 based sub‐national population forecasts Estimate of total future number of have been utilised. These can be located in Table 5‐3 (Population change, 2008‐2033) 3 households broken down by age and type where possible. Table 5‐4 (Population age band forecast), 2008‐2033); Table 5‐9 (Forecast change in households, 2006‐2031).
Estimate of current number of households 4 Section 12 ‐ CLG Needs Assessment Model in housing need.
Estimate of future households that will 5 Section 12 – CLG Needs Assessment Model require affordable housing†.
Estimate of future households requiring Sub‐Sections 10.5 and 10.6 – Future Demand for Market 6 market housing. Housing
Estimate of the size of affordable housing Sub‐Section 10.2 to 10.4 – Future size of Affordable 7 required. Housing
Section 9 – The Housing Requirements of Specific Households Groups: Sub‐section9.2 (Households with support needs) Estimate of household groups who have 8 Sub‐section 9.3 (Housing Needs of Older People); particular housing requirements. Sub‐section 9.4 (BME Households) Sub‐section9.5 (Gypsy & Traveller Households) Sub‐section 9.6 (Students). Source: CLG Strategic Housing Market Assessments Practice Guidance Version 2 (August 2007)
1 PPS12 paragraphs 4.23 – 4.25 (39‐40)
28 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
Table 2‐2 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Process Checklist
Approach to identifying housing market area(s) is consistent with other approaches to 1 identifying housing market areas within the region.
2 Housing Market conditions are assessed within the context of the housing market area.
3 Involves key Stakeholders including house builders.
Contains a full technical explanation of the methods employed, with any limitations 4 noted.
Assumptions, judgements and findings are fully justified and presented in an open and 5 transparent manner.
6 Uses and reports upon effective quality control mechanisms.
2.6.2 Member of the Steering Group provided DCA with information from each of the sub areas on prices for both new build and resale properties as well as information on properties for private rent. 2.6.3 DCA also carried out a telephone survey of local estate agents in Newcastle and Gateshead. 2.6.4 Consultation with key stakeholders took place on 3 August and 24 November 2010. A list of invitees and attendees can be seen in Appendix II. 2.6.5 DCA believe that this report provides a robust and credible evidence base and fully meets the requirements of the SHMA Practice Guidance.
2.7 The Housing Market Partnership 2.7.1 The SHMA Practice Guidance encourages the setting up of a Housing Market Partnership, consisting of a multi‐disciplinary team including housing, planning, private sector, economic development and regeneration expertise. 2.7.2 The aim of the partnership is to involve key stakeholders in the assessment process in order to incorporate local knowledge and ensure that the SHMA reflects all relevant local issues. Involvement of stakeholders also provides the opportunity to inform the assessment process, ensure that it is robust and take ownership of the findings. 2.7.3 Representatives from key delivery partners and organisations in Newcastle and Gateshead were invited to join the Housing Market Partnership. 2.7.4 Details of the SHMA Housing Market Partnership consultation process and the wider stakeholder consultation can be found at Section 14. The membership list can be found at Appendix II.
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2.8 The Newcastle and Gateshead Officer Project Team 2.8.1 DCA have conducted this assessment working closely with a project team from both Newcastle and Gateshead Councils. 2.8.2 The project team took on the role of organising and co‐ordinating the SHMA, arranging the budget, setting up of the Housing Market Partnership, hosting meetings and providing secondary data held by the council which was required for the SHMA.
2.9 The SHMA Report Structure 2.9.1 The report structure utilised in this SHMA follows the SHMA Practice Guidance. The key report sections are detailed below.
Section 3 ‐ Understanding the Current Housing Market 2.9.2 In Section 3 the scope of the Gateshead and Newcastle Housing Market is established. This involves analysis of migration and commuting patterns in order to assess the relationship between Newcastle and Gateshead and other local authorities in the Tyne & Wear City Region (Further detail of the City Region and the authorities it contains can be found at 3.3.4).
Section 4‐ Review of the Local Strategic Context 2.9.3 It is essential that local authorities have a clear view about local strategies and policy aims and objectives surrounding the housing market. In Section 4, existing local policy is reviewed.
Section 5 ‐ The Demographic Context & Forecasts 2.9.4 Following the identification of the local housing market boundary and the key policy drivers, the next step is to explain how local demographic conditions can influence the housing market. Section 5 examines:‐ ¾ The current demographic structure; ¾ Future population change forecasts; ¾ Household characteristics.
Section 6 ‐ Economic Drivers of Demand 2.9.5 Section 6 analyses the recent economic performance in Newcastle and Gateshead and how changes have influenced and interacted with demographic and socio‐economic changes as analysed in section 5. The analysis includes:‐ ¾ Employment levels and structure; ¾ Labour force and income; ¾ Skills and educational attainment.
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Section 7 ‐ The Current Housing Stock 2.9.6 Section 7 examines the characteristics and structure of the current housing stock in the area. Analysis of the supply of housing entails an assessment of the range, quality and location of the existing housing stock. More specifically, this section examines the following:‐ ¾ Number of dwellings in the area by size, type, location and tenure; ¾ Stock condition; ¾ Overcrowding and under‐occupation; ¾ Shared housing & communal establishments.
Section 8 ‐ The Active Market 2.9.7 Section 8 analyses indicators of housing market activity area. This section examines the following:‐ ¾ The cost of buying or renting a property; ¾ Affordability of housing; ¾ Vacant dwellings, stock turnover rates and available supply by tenure.
Section 9 ‐ The Housing Requirements of Specific Household Groups 2.9.8 Section 9 examines the housing needs of specific household groups. These include:‐ ¾ Households with support needs; ¾ Older people; ¾ Black Minority Ethnic (BME) households; ¾ Gypsy and Traveller Households; ¾ Students.
Section 10 ‐ The Future Housing Market 2.9.9 Section 10 provides estimates of the scale of future housing demand and analyses the future demand for market and affordable housing by property size.
Section 11 ‐ Housing Need 2.9.10 Section 11 assesses unmet need for social and affordable housing, in particular those living in unsuitable housing. Homelessness and waiting list data is examined to inform:‐ ¾ The current number of households in housing need; ¾ Future households requiring affordable housing (social rent and intermediate rent/ownership)
Sections 12 ‐ CLG Housing Needs Assessment Model 2.9.11 Sections 12 consist of the CLG Needs Assessment Model for each authority. This provides a quantitative assessment of housing need.
31 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
Section 13 ‐ Planning & Delivery 2.9.12 Section 13 provides a range of recommendations, for both planning policy and other strategies relating to housing and support services. The aim of this is to ensure that both Councils are working towards delivering a mix of housing by tenure, type and size to meet the current and future requirements of all household groups in the community. It includes recommendations for:‐ ¾ Overall Affordable Housing target levels by size; ¾ Tenure mix targets; ¾ Property type and size targets.
Section 14‐ Stakeholder Consultation 2.9.13 Section 14 outlines the role of the Housing Market Partnership and the consultation process.
Section 15 ‐ Updating the SHMA 2.9.14 Section 15 provides an outline of the mechanisms to monitor the housing market drivers and update the SHMA.
2.10 Data Sources 2.10.1 The SHMA Practice Guidance stresses the importance of using good quality data from a range of sources. 2.10.2 Both extensive secondary data and primary data collected during the 2010 local Housing Surveys have been used. 2.10.3 It should be noted that although the 2001 Census data provides a vast range of information about households and in some instances is the only data available regarding various household characteristics, the 2001 Census data is now 9 years old and the current situation across Newcastle and Gateshead and the wider benchmark areas may now differ from that recorded in the Census. 2.10.4 All local, North East region and national Government documents mentioned in the SHMA are current at the time of report writing. However these documents are subject to change and may be superseded by revised policy and strategy over time. 2.10.5 The sources of data used within each section of the report are referenced where appropriate. 2.10.6 Appendix III contains a list of the secondary data sources used in the SHMA.
2.11 Data Benchmarking 2.11.1 Throughout this study where possible, DCA have provided data at national (England), regional (the North East), Tyne & Wear (including the five local authorities of Gateshead, Newcastle Upon Tyne, North Tyneside, South Tyneside and Sunderland) and the individual local authority scales (Newcastle and Gateshead). These will be referred to throughout the report as benchmark areas. The use of benchmark areas aims to provide an understanding of comparative performance between Newcastle and Gateshead and wider areas.
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2.11.2 Due to the unitary nature of the five authorities which make up Tyne & Wear, the secondary data sources do not always provide a collated Tyne & Wear figure. When using data sources where a combined figure was not available, the Tyne & Wear figure has been calculated from an average of the five local authorities i.e. adding up the data for the five authorities and dividing by five to arrive at the ‘arithmetic mean’. However it should be noted that the arithmetic mean includes any extreme values which can shift the mean figure. The Tyne & Wear average figures should therefore be treated with caution.
2.12 Glossary of Terms 2.12.1 A glossary of the technical terms used throughout this report is provided at Appendix IV.
33 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010
3 THE CURRENT LOCAL HOUSING MARKET
3.1 Introduction 3.1.1 An important element of this SHMA is to consider the relationship between Newcastle and Gateshead and other local authorities in the Tyne & Wear City Region. 3.1.2 Broadly this section consists of:‐ ¾ Identifying housing market boundaries; ¾ The North East Regional context; ¾ Housing market boundaries in the North East region; ¾ Migration Patterns; ¾ Internal movement within Newcastle by Sub‐Area; ¾ Internal movement within Gateshead by Sub‐Area; ¾ Travel to Work Patterns; ¾ The Newcastle and Gateshead Market.
3.2 Identifying Housing Market Boundaries 3.2.1 Before establishing the extent of the Newcastle and Gateshead Housing Market, it is important to ensure that there is a common understanding of what is meant by the term ‘housing market’. 3.2.2 A market is where buyers and sellers exchange goods or services for an agreed price. A housing market is a complex market for a variety of reasons:‐ ¾ Housing is a high value commodity. The decision to purchase is of great importance to individuals due to the scale of the investment and the time required to pay off this investment; ¾ Housing can also have an emotional attachment and moving is often both expensive and stressful; ¾ Housing is built to last and because of this, only a fraction of the stock is for sale and available to purchase at any point in time; ¾ The housing market is highly regulated, the location and volume of new development is controlled through planning policies and procedures; ¾ Housing is a basic human requirement and resources are provided to ensure that those who cannot access market housing are adequately housed through either direct provision of housing or subsidy. 3.2.3 A housing market has a strong spatial dimension. Location matters to people. Most buyers seek to move within the same sub‐region because they want to continue living in that area for reasons such as family, employment or access to particular services such as schools; Affordable housing and housing benefit add to the market complexities. 3.2.4 A housing market is defined in the Guidance Advice note as typically comprising an area in which around 70% of all housing moves are contained.
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3.2.5 It is recognised that local authorities face a variety of challenges in their housing markets. Patterns of housing demand and need, affordability, availability and tenure can all vary from the neighbourhood upwards. 3.2.6 The SHMA Practice Guidance defines housing market areas as ‘geographical areas defined by household demand and preferences for housing’. They reflect key functional linkages between places where people live and work. 3.2.7 Planning Policy Statement 3: Housing2 (PPS3) advocates local authorities to work together on the basis of sub‐regional housing market areas to produce an evidence base for the development of sub‐regional development policies. 3.2.8 It is recommended in the SHMA Practice Guidance “Identifying Sub‐regional Housing Market Areas” Advice Note3 that local authorities should consider developing sophisticated approaches to identify the precise spatial boundaries of the local housing markets. The guidance also requires that the approach taken in this assessment to identifying the housing market area(s) is consistent with other approaches to identifying housing market areas within the region. 3.2.9 The advice note advocates that housing market areas may also be comprised of smaller, local sub‐markets and neighbourhoods which can be aggregated together to identify sub‐regional housing market areas. 3.2.10 Housing markets are constantly evolving and therefore housing and planning polices need to be pitched at geographically smaller levels and take into account trends in housing and employment markets and the inter‐relationship with communities and their ties which influence sub‐markets. 3.2.11 Housing Markets do not respect administrative boundaries and may overlap with other local authority boundaries. 3.2.12 Specifically this section of the SHMA will explore the linkages between Newcastle and Gateshead and other local authority areas across Tyne & Wear. Data will also be analysed at sub‐area level (see Table 3‐4 and Table 3‐5) to assess patterns of movement internally within the areas.
3.3 The North East Regional Context 3.3.1 On the 1st April 2009, following the results of the Government's Sub‐National Review and Government reorganisation, North East England was reconfigured into 12 unitary strategic local authorities. These are Darlington Borough, Durham County, Gateshead, Hartlepool Borough, Middlesbrough, Newcastle City, North Tyneside, Northumberland County, Redcar & Cleveland Borough, South Tyneside, Stockton on Tees and Sunderland City. 3.3.2 The North East of England Plan was published in July 2008 and is the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) for the North East region3. 3.3.3 The Government has signalled its intention to abolish ‘top‐down’ regional planning through the forthcoming decentralisation and localism bill, which it hopes will receive Royal assent by Summer 2011.
2 PPS3: Housing (Communities and Local Government,2006) 3 Annex to Strategic Housing Market Assessments – Practice Guidance, CLG March 2007 3 Abolished in May 2010 by the Coalition Government).
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3.3.4 The plan defines two City regions of Tyne & Wear and Tees Valley where specific policy and strategy applies. The sub‐regions and the authorities contained within them are outlined below:
Sub‐Region Local Authorities
North Tyneside / Gateshead / Newcastle Upon Tyne Tyne & Wear South Tyneside / Sunderland
Former Districts of Blyth Valley / Castle Morpeth / Wansbeck / Parts Northumberland of Alnwick & Tynedale
Durham Former Districts of Chester Le Street / Durham City / Easington
3.3.5 Newcastle and Gateshead are within the Tyne & Wear City Region and is the area which looks primarily to Newcastle, the regional centre and to other Tyne & Wear authorities for access to jobs and services.
3.4 Housing Market Boundaries in the North East Region 3.4.1 Various research has already been carried out which examine housing markets within the North East Region. These include:‐ ¾ CURDS (2004) Analysis of Census Migration Data to Define Housing Market Areas for Tyne & Wear; ¾ Tribal & CURS (June 2008), Comparisons of Housing Market Areas and Strategic Housing Market Areas in the North East’; ¾ North East Assembly (NEA) (2009) Defining Strategic Housing Market Areas in North East England’; ¾ The Tyne & Wear Housing Partnership (July 2007) Tyne & Wear SHMA. CURDS (2004), ‘Analysis of Census Migration Data to Define Housing Market Areas for Tyne & Wear’ 3.4.2 The research undertaken by the Centre for Urban and Regional Development Studies (CURDS) was originally cited in the 2007 Tyne & Wear Housing Partnership report into Housing Market Assessments and subsequently in the 2009 Tyne & Wear SHMA. The research was based on the analysis of census migration figures on the basis of a 95.5% self‐ containment of moves. 3.4.3 The CURDS study suggested the existence of four primary sub‐areas. Newcastle and Gateshead formed part of the North Tyne market Area, comprising Newcastle, Gateshead, North Tyneside and parts of the districts to the North and West of the Tyne. Tribal & CURS (June 2008), ‘Comparisons of Housing Market Areas and Strategic Housing Market Areas in the North East’ 3.4.4 The purpose of the study was to understand the HMA and SHMA work that had previously been carried out by sub‐regional partnerships. The study examined the technical aspects of previous Housing Market Assessments in the North East region to understand the extent to which the work already completed adhered to the 2007 SHMA Practice Guidance and where there were gaps. 3.4.5 The study recognised that the HMAs and SHMAs had been carried out at different times and under different sets of Government Guidance, leading to gaps and overlaps of data.
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3.4.6 The sub‐regions used in the study were based on the City Regions used in the RSS and recognised that the Tyne & Wear housing market area overlaps with County Durham and Northumberland. 3.4.7 The study concluded that a North East regionally consistent approach to undertaking future SHMAs was required so that a robust evidence base can be provided to inform North East regional housing policies in the future.
Defining Strategic Housing Market Areas in North East England’, 2009 3.4.8 The North East Assembly (NEA) (superseded by the Association of North East Councils in April 2009) completed a study in March 2009 entitled ‘Defining Strategic Housing Market Areas in North East England’. 3.4.9 The study defined strategic housing market areas in North East England using the approach identified in Government advice examining migration patterns, functional geographies and house prices. The study also examined additional factors such as settlement distribution, infrastructure patterns and socio‐economic trends. 3.4.10 The study identified four strategic housing market areas in North East England. Newcastle and Gateshead were identified as forming part of the Southern Northumberland, Tyne and Wear and Northern County Durham market area, comprising North Tyneside, Blyth Valley, Castle Morpeth, Wansbeck, Gateshead, Newcastle, South Tyneside, Sunderland, Chester Le Street, Derwentside, Durham City and Easington.
3.5 Migration Patterns 3.5.1 The key drivers of population growth are natural changes in population, caused by a disparity between the number of births and deaths, and migration. However, migration is generally associated with the relative economic prosperity of an area, with workers moving to areas where they have the best chance of finding employment. Migration can also be associated with lifestyle changes, such as retirement, or moving to an area with a higher quality of life. 3.5.2 The pattern of household movement between Newcastle, Gateshead and other authorities has been analysed by examining 2001 Census data, National Health Service Patient Registration data for the period 2002‐2008 and the primary data from the 2010 local Housing Surveys. 3.5.3 The table below outlines household movements, including migration in and out of Newcastle and Gateshead and the North East regional / national benchmarks taken from the 2001 Census. Table 3‐1 Household Movements by Area, 2000 – 2001 (including from Overseas) Inflow Internal Area Within the Outflow Net change Overseas movement UK Newcastle 2,385 540 6,043 3,226 ‐301 Gateshead 1,523 115 4,255 1,354 +284 Tyne & Wear 7,773 1,165 23,926 8,235 + 643 North East 7,571 2,007 65,830 7,843 +1,735 England 21,378 72,747 1,415,271 25,347 + 68,778
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001
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3.5.4 The migration pattern in Table 3‐1 above shows that in the year preceding the 2001 Census (2000‐2001) there was a negative net in‐migration into Newcastle of ‐301 households. Gateshead experienced a positive net in‐migration of 284, a pattern reflected regionally and nationally. 3.5.5 18.5% of the inflow to Newcastle was from overseas. This is a high level when compared to 7.0% in Gateshead. This compares to the overseas inflow into Tyne & Wear of 13.0% and 21% in the North East region. 3.5.6 The table below shows the net migration balance of the age groups. Table 3‐2 Newcastle Net Migration Balance by age groups 2000 – 2001 (including the inflow from outside of the UK)
Ages Inflow Outflow Balance
0 ‐ 15 1,198 1,237 ‐ 39
16 – 24 5,959 4,209 + 1,740
25 – 44 4,770 5,116 ‐ 346
45 – 59 658 892 ‐234
60 – 74 231 380 ‐ 145
75 + 110 170 ‐ 60
All ages 12,926 12,004 + 922
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001 3.5.7 There is a net in‐ migration balance of the 16‐24 age range in Newcastle (+1,740). This is largely the result of people coming to study at the two universities. All other age groups show a net out‐migration, particularly of family age bands from 25 to 59. Table 3‐3 Gateshead Net Migration Balance by age groups 2000 – 2001 (including the inflow from outside of the UK) Ages Inflow Outflow Balance 0 ‐ 15 866 866 ‐ 11 16 – 24 1,169 949 + 220 25 – 44 2,241 2,192 + 49 45 – 59 460 464 ‐ 4 60 – 74 218 162 + 56 75 + 72 75 ‐3 All ages 5,026 4,708 + 318
3.5.8 There is a modest net in‐migration balance in the 16‐24, 25‐44 and 60‐74 age groups in Gateshead.
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3.5.9 The following tables show the migration flow for Gateshead and Newcastle from 2004‐2009. Table 3‐4 Annual average Newcastle upon Tyne moves (mid 2004 to mid 2009) All % 0‐15 or 0‐15 16‐24 25‐44 45‐64 65+ ages 25‐44 England and Wales ‐360 1,380 ‐1,980 ‐280 ‐80 ‐1,360 England ‐360 1,360 ‐2,020 ‐280 ‐80 ‐1,360 County Durham UA ‐40 172 ‐70 ‐20 ‐12 30 Northumberland UA ‐144 36 ‐320 ‐114 ‐30 ‐572 81% Gateshead ‐28 ‐158 ‐362 ‐34 ‐2 ‐594 66% North Tyneside ‐114 ‐164 ‐558 ‐132 ‐30 ‐1,000 67% South Tyneside ‐6 4 0 ‐2 2 ‐2 Sunderland ‐6 56 60 12 8 128 Tees Valley ‐4 218 ‐12 ‐10 2 204 Source: ONS Tab2b (analysis of NHSCR data) Note: negative no. denotes a net outflow 3.5.10 Similar analysis for Gateshead shows that a sizeable net inflow from Newcastle (+600 p.a.) is largely counter‐balanced by a significant net outflow to County Durham (‐300 p.a.) and more modest net outflows to Northumberland, North Tyneside and South Tyneside (‐200 p.a.). 3.5.11 Families account for a large proportion of net out‐migration to County Durham, Northumberland and South Tyneside, with net out‐migration of children accounting for 34% of net out‐migration to these areas (net loss of 150 children per annum). Table 3‐5 Annual Average Gateshead Moves (mid 2004 to mid 2009) 0‐15 16‐24 25‐44 45‐64 65+ All ages England and Wales ‐160 160 220 ‐20 ‐100 80 England ‐140 180 220 ‐20 ‐100 80 County Durham UA ‐60 ‐8 ‐128 ‐54 ‐36 ‐302 Northumberland UA ‐58 32 ‐14 ‐46 ‐14 ‐84 Newcastle upon Tyne 28 158 362 34 2 594 North Tyneside ‐6 ‐4 ‐48 ‐6 ‐8 ‐74 South Tyneside ‐30 ‐2 2 ‐6 ‐8 ‐52 Sunderland ‐16 16 14 2 ‐22 ‐4 Tees Valley 2 4 30 ‐4 0 26 Source: ONS Tab2b (analysis of NHSCR data) Note: negative no. denotes a net outflow
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3.5.12 The following table assesses the previous location of people currently living in each area. The data is taken from the 2001 Census of all people resident in the UK whose address at Census day was different from that one year before and whose previous location was Newcastle or Gateshead or elsewhere in the Tyne and Wear City Region. Table 3‐6 In‐Migration (People) Place of Previous Residence Area of Chester‐ Newcastle‐ Gates‐ North South Sunder‐ Easing‐ Derwent‐ Blyth Castle Wans‐ Tyne‐ Residence Durham le‐ Alnwick Row total upon‐Tyne head Tyneside Tyneside land ton side Valley Morpeth beck dale Street Newcastle‐ 24,831 915 1,260 205 402 198 57 111 124 305 439 162 120 291 29,420 upon‐Tyne Gateshead 1,286 12,170 292 290 367 98 25 270 227 88 67 43 18 178 15,419 North 2,264 332 12,670 174 132 51 28 34 37 628 147 156 68 69 16,790 Tyneside South 279 276 96 10,433 558 53 27 52 42 15 12 9 0 24 11,876 Tyneside Sunderland 260 401 117 481 20,739 211 409 264 114 36 38 29 38 46 23,183 Durham 197 80 67 76 317 7,273 186 334 228 27 29 15 3 22 8,854 Easington 24 33 6 21 399 141 6,392 24 48 3 0 12 9 0 7,112 Chester‐le‐ 90 302 32 43 341 272 57 2,639 175 15 18 3 3 12 4,002 Street Derwentside 154 417 60 50 121 243 25 272 6,086 9 16 6 19 37 7,515 Blyth Valley 431 99 680 41 79 22 0 6 3 5,212 111 291 43 48 7,066 Castle 478 115 148 24 41 73 18 12 18 160 1,989 270 185 97 3,628 Morpeth Wansbeck 152 48 103 32 42 9 3 0 20 337 333 4,393 64 24 5,560 Alnwick 127 51 68 33 21 12 3 6 12 37 152 60 1,744 62 2,388 Tynedale 343 270 118 50 58 19 6 21 73 51 136 12 55 3,114 4,326
Local moves 84.4% 78.9% 75.5% 87.8% 89.5% 82.1% 89.9% 65.9% 80.9% 73.7% 54.8% 79.0% 73.0% 71.9% %*
Source: © Crown Copyright Census 2001 ‐ * % of moves contained within local authority area from overall number of local moves 3.5.13 The data showed a high level of self‐containment within Newcastle, with 84.4% of people moving within the local authority area. Gateshead showed a slightly lower level of self‐containment at 78.9%.
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3.5.14 The data for Newcastle showed a relatively higher level of movers from the immediately adjoining authorities of Gateshead and North Tyneside. In‐migration from the neighbouring authority of South Tyneside was low, perhaps reflecting the physical barrier created by the River Tyne. 3.5.15 Gateshead had the highest level of in‐migration from Newcastle. 3.5.16 There were fairly low levels of movement to authorities at a greater distance. Cross‐ boundary movement is therefore principally to an adjoining authority. 3.5.17 In total, 93.9% of moves both into and within Newcastle and 93.4% into and within Gateshead were from within the five authorities in the Tyne & Wear sub‐region. 3.5.18 More recent data for the period June 2002 to June 2008 from the National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) was analysed to assess patterns of household movement. 3.5.19 The register records the movement of patients between Health Authority areas. These migration estimates are based on patients moving and informing their doctor as they change residential address. 3.5.20 The accuracy of the data depends on all patients re‐registering with a doctor when they move. However, it is known that re‐registration patterns vary by sex and age group. For example, young children, their mothers and the elderly usually re‐register quite quickly after moving, while young men take longer to re‐register than women of the same age. In addition, some students register at their term time address while others remain registered at their parents’ address. 3.5.21 The graph below shows the net in‐migration to Newcastle for the six years from June 2002 to June 2008 from the Tyne & Wear City Region authorities. Fig. 3‐1 Net –Migration to Newcastle (June 2002‐June 2008)
Net Migration
2000 1190 600 1000 280 80 0 Le -1000 Valley
South North -2000 Castle Alnwick Durham Street Tyneside Morpeth Tyneside Tynedale Easington Wansbeck Chester Gateshead
-3000 Sunderland Blyth Derwentside ‐980 ‐110 ‐160 ‐540 -4000 ‐10 ‐410 ‐560 ‐3,800 -5000 -6000 -7000 -8000 ‐7,250
Source: ONS National Health Service Central Register (June 2002 to June 2008)
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3.5.22 The NHS data shows an extremely high level of net out‐migration from Newcastle upon Tyne to North Tyneside (‐ 7,250 people) and Gateshead (‐ 3,800). Positive net levels of in‐ migration were evident from Sunderland (+1,180 people). Fig. 3‐2 Net –Migration to Gateshead (June 2002‐June 2008)
5000
4000 3,800
3000
2000
1000
0 Valley Street
‐1000
Alnwick Durham Tyneside Tyneside Morpeth Tynedale Le
Easington Wansbeck Newcastle Sunderland Blyth ‐2000 Derwentside South North Castle Chester ‐3000 ‐140 ‐90 ‐480 ‐10 ‐100 ‐500 ‐1,790 ‐40 ‐120 ‐110 ‐130 ‐480
‐4000
‐5000 Source: ONS National Health Service Central Register (June 2002 to June 2008) 3.5.23 The NHS data shows an extremely high level of net in‐migration to Gateshead from Newcastle Upon Tyne (‐+3,800 people). Negative net levels of out‐migration were evident to all other areas. 3.5.24 The following table shows how combined net out‐migration from Newcastle to North Tyneside (‐1,000 p.a.), Gateshead (‐600 p.a.) and Northumberland (‐600 p.a.) exceeds total internal out‐migration (‐1,400 p.a.) and furthermore how net losses of the key family‐ forming age group and of children contribute the majority of local net out‐migration (four‐ fifths of net out‐migration to Northumberland and two‐thirds of that to North Tyneside and Gateshead). 3.5.25 NHCSR data from mid‐2004 to mid‐2009 shows that the majority of local net out‐migration (four‐fifths of net out‐migration to Northumberland and two‐thirds of that to North Tyneside and Gateshead) are net losses of the key family‐forming age groups and of children. 3.5.26 Net out‐migration of children accounts for 25% of net out‐migration to Northumberland, 11% of that to North Tyneside and only 5% of out‐migration to Gateshead. This suggests that moves from Newcastle to Gateshead are mostly of childless single people and couples (presumably attracted by greater affordability of accommodation) and moves to Northumberland are more associated with a more competitive family housing offer. 3.5.27 Net out‐migration of children accounts for 25% of net out‐migration to Northumberland, 11% of that to North Tyneside and only 5% of out‐migration to Gateshead. This suggests that moves to Gateshead are mostly of childless single people and couples (presumably attracted by greater affordability of accommodation) and moves to Northumberland are more associated with a more competitive family housing offer.
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3.6 Travel to Work Patterns 3.6.1 In defining the spatial extent of housing markets, patterns of household migration are augmented by the analysis of travel to work patterns shown in the table below. The data is taken from the 2001 Census of all people employed in each local authority area and whose workplace location was one of the Tyne & Wear City region authority areas. Table 3‐7 Travel to Work Patterns
Place of Work Area of Newcastl Chester‐ Gates‐ North South Sunder‐ Easing‐ Derwent‐ Blyth Castle Wans‐ Residence e‐upon‐ Durham le‐ Alnwick Tyne‐dale Row total head Tyneside Tyneside land ton side Valley Morpeth beck Tyne Street Newcastle‐ 70,017 9,213 7,618 1,525 2,864 804 187 240 436 1,232 1,739 522 123 855 97,375 upon‐Tyne Gateshead 18,245 43,271 2,550 2,087 4,474 907 274 767 1.044 417 660 132 55 1,213 76,096 North 24,899 4,339 41,933 1,603 1,976 419 159 116 176 2,364 1,255 630 136 347 80,352 Tyneside South 6,384 4,544 1,835 33,288 7,603 441 331 159 144 211 272 81 11 100 55,404 Tyneside Sunderland 6,625 6,876 1,467 4,467 81,615 2,672 2,662 1,002 404 224 346 89 16 126 108,591 Durham 1,438 1,170 260 317 2,435 22,871 990 741 950 57 86 12 6 41 31,374 Easington 575 478 152 282 5,406 2,259 18,943 196 159 38 52 12 0 14 28,566 Chester‐le‐ 2,445 3,890 383 463 3,347 3,639 363 7,359 969 59 124 28 6 48 23,123 Street Derwentside 3,191 3,611 468 258 1,518 4,120 214 961 18,806 86 157 43 18 515 33,966 Blyth Valley 7,918 1,469 5,437 375 625 138 49 41 57 15,371 1,694 1,778 119 118 35,189 Castle 4,433 914 1,136 186 337 114 29 24 30 927 9,568 1,697 643 318 20,356 Morpeth Wansbeck 3,096 803 1,536 150 303 79 20 20 28 3,007 3,514 11,970 194 93 24,813 Alnwick 1,028 218 329 33 85 27 6 3 16 281 1,464 473 8,993 88 13,044 Tynedale 4,184 1,649 572 172 427 187 35 45 259 163 732 86 45 17,581 26,137
Self Contained 71.9 56.9 52.2 60.1 75.2 72.9 66.3 31.8 55.4 43.7 47.0 48.2 68.9 67.3 %* Source: © Crown Copyright Census 2001
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3.7 The Newcastle and Gateshead Market 3.7.1 As discussed in paragraph 3.2.4, a housing market is identified as one where 70% of household moves are contained within the area. 3.7.2 The data shows a strong correlation between actual household moves and travel to work patterns in the Borough. 2001 Census has revealed that self‐containment is 84.4% in Newcastle and 78.9% in Gateshead when analysing household movements. The travel to work patterns suggests a lower level of self‐containment, 71.9% in Newcastle and 56.9% in Gateshead. 3.7.3 Although the evidence of household moves suggests that Newcastle and Gateshead could be considered to be a single market (in excess of 70%), 84.9% and 78.9% respectively, Gateshead has a much lower level of self containment in relation to employment with 56.9% of residents working within the Borough. 71.9% of Newcastle Upon Tyne residents work within the City. 3.7.4 The evidence shows that household movement and commuting patterns are strongly linked between Newcastle and Gateshead. There is also evidence of strong migration and travel to work links between Newcastle and North Tyneside. 3.7.5 It can be concluded from the analysis of data relating to migration and commuting that Newcastle and Gateshead are part of the Tyne and Wear sub‐regional market. 3.7.6 Newcastle however has very strong migration and travel to work links with North Tyneside which are greater than with Gateshead. Although Gateshead also has links to North Tyneside they are not as strong as those to Sunderland. 3.7.7 The reality is that there is significant overlap between different housing markets (and TTWAs). 3.7.8 Adopting a practicable approach, the three authorities in combination achieve 86.7% self‐ containment for travel to work (i.e. 86.7% of residents in work who live in one of the three authorities also work in one of the three authorities). For moves the level of self‐ containment is higher still – at 90.9%. Although there are clear linkages with Sunderland, South Tyneside and parts of Northumberland & Durham, pragmatism dictates that these three authorities represent a reasonable approximation to a single housing market. Table 3‐8 Travel to Work Patterns Travel to work Place of work Area of North N + G + Self‐ Newcastle Gateshead Total residence Tyneside NT containment Newcastle 70017 9213 7618 86848 97375 71.9% Gateshead 18245 43271 550 62066 76096 56.9% N Tyneside 24899 4339 41933 71171 80352 52.2% N + G + NT 113161 56823 50101 220085 253823 86.7%
Moves Place of previous residence Area of New‐ Gates‐ N Self‐ N + G + NT Total residence castle head Tyneside containment Newcastle 24831 915 1260 27006 29420 84.4% Gateshead 1286 12170 292 13748 15419 78.9% N Tyneside 2264 332 12670 15266 16790 75.5% N + G + NT 28381 13417 14222 56020 61629 90.9%
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4 GATESHEAD & NEWCASTLE STRATEGIC CONTEXT
4.1.1 A review of local existing housing and planning policy and practice, together with other relevant literature is useful in determining key issues, policy aspirations for the area and the role of housing in delivering the spatial vision for Gateshead and Newcastle. 4.1.2 The Gateshead and Newcastle strategic relationship is outlined below and followed by a review of local strategies and polices in relation to the specific key themes of :‐ ¾ Housing allocation; ¾ Homelessness; ¾ Empty properties ¾ Supporting People; ¾ The Private sector; ¾ Specific household groups (including the elderly, students and BME households); ¾ Regeneration.
4.2 The Gateshead and Newcastle Strategic Relationship 4.2.1 Gateshead and Newcastle have a long history of joint strategic partnership working. 4.2.2 Bridging NewcastleGateshead (BNG) is a strategic public private partnership, established to address housing market failure within the NewcastleGateshead conurbation core. It is a partnership of Gateshead and Newcastle Councils, One NorthEast, the Homes and Communities Agency, both Local Strategic Partnerships and four independent members including an independent Chair. Community engagement is central to the programme. 4.2.3 BNG was set up at the end of 2002 as a Housing Market Renewal (HMR) Pathfinder, a national government programme which aims to restore sustainable communities in ten areas in the North and Midlands. 4.2.4 BNG is seeking to create great places to live at the heart of NewcastleGateshead. It is working to provide better quality and choice of housing and is doing this by improving existing homes, building new homes and getting sites ready for new development to take place. 4.2.5 Due to the Government Spending review, the funding for BNG has been withdrawn and the project will close in April 2011 unless further funding can be secured. 4.2.6 Both authorities will be preparing a joint Core Strategy ‘One Core Strategy NewcastleGateshead 2030’ over the next few years. This will be the key Development Plan Document in both Gateshead’s and Newcastle’s Local Development Framework (LDF). The strategy is scheduled for adoption in 2012. 4.2.7 Once adopted, the ‘One Core Strategy NewcastleGateshead’ along with other Local Development Framework (LDF) and Development Plan Documents will replace the existing Unitary Development Plan and as the document that sets out the long term strategic policies for Gateshead and Newcastle’s future development and will form the framework that planning applications will be assessed against. 4.2.8 1NG, NewcastleGateshead's City Development Company, is an independent private sector led company leading on the delivery of regeneration, development and investment projects in NewcastleGateshead.
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4.2.9 1NG was set up in March 2009 and is jointly funded by both Councils with a focus on the Urban Core of NewcastleGateshead. 4.2.10 Commercially focused, with a wealth of experience in regeneration and economic development; 1NG has been created to deliver complex property and regeneration projects. 4.2.11 The NewcastleGateshead Initiative is committed to working in partnership with local organisations to develop and promote Newcastle and Gateshead across the world. by raising NewcastleGateshead’s profile in national and international arenas and making the area a world‐class destination. 4.2.12 The NewcastleGateshead Investment Plan (2010‐2030) has been prepared by the Gateshead and Newcastle Partnership, the strategic group providing the leadership for partnership working across NewcastleGateshead. 4.2.13 It outlines the vision, objectives and priorities for investment in Newcastle and Gateshead to 2030. The Investment Plan is a delivery document, helping the authorities to achieve the objectives outlined in the Sustainable Community Strategies, in the 1Plan (the economic masterplan for NewcastleGateshead) and in the emerging shared Local Development Framework. It sets out the vision, and the key objectives and outlines, through a programme of place based and thematic interventions, how the councils will deliver their vision for creating great places over the next 20 years. 4.2.14 The Plan has prioritised a number of themes to ensure that all parts of all communities are able to benefit from appropriate housing and services to satisfy their requirements. This will ensure that they can play a full part in their community. The themes are: ¾ Affordable Housing – continuing to provide suitable affordable housing in communities as part of a mixed communities approach; ¾ Worklessness – ensuring that the Councils address the problems of concentrated worklessness as part of our investment plan; ¾ Decent Homes – continuing to invest in the fabric of social housing estates; ¾ Independent Living – promoting the ability of vulnerable residents to live lives as independently as possible; ¾ Fuel Poverty – improving insulation and energy efficiency to reduce the proportion of incomes spent on energy; ¾ Specialist Housing – ensuring that the needs of particular vulnerable groups, including BME communities, are met.
4.3 Housing Allocation 4.3.1 The Gateshead Unitary Development Plan (2007) and saved policies (July 2010) sets out Gateshead Council's policies and proposals for housing, land use, transport and the environment. It provides a context for a range of initiatives in the private and public sectors and forms the basis for the consideration of applications for planning permission. 4.3.2 The UDP (H1 Rate of Housing Provision) sets out provision for an annual average net increase in the dwelling stock of 505 up to 2016. 4.3.3 Priority has been given to identifying sites for new housing development on previously developed land within the existing built up area, subject to maintaining environmental quality and open space.
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4.3.4 Windfall and small housing sites may be phased for development over the plan period subject to assessment criteria. 4.3.5 The Gateshead Housing Strategy, 2007‐2012 recommends that 196 new affordable homes are provided in the Borough per year, mostly on mixed tenure estates to ensure that people are not living in unsuitable accommodation and continue to update housing market intelligence to ensure that the right number of homes are built to meet housing needs in the Borough. 4.3.6 Add in Newcastle H Strategy 4.3.7 The North East of England Regional Spatial Strategy to 2021 sets out a provision of 3,590 (gross) additional homes allocated over the plan period to 2021, taking account of existing planning consents. Provision will be expected to be phased over the Plan period as follows:‐
2004‐2011 2011‐2016 2016‐2021 2004‐2021 Proposed Provision 700 940 1,070 880
Source: The North East of England Regional Spatial Strategy to 2021 4.3.8 In 2008, NewcastleGateshead was declared one of 20 New Growth Points, receiving the first block of funding to invest in studies, site preparation and infrastructure to accelerate sustainable housing development to cover the period 2009‐11. 4.3.9 Growth Points are areas which combine economic development and housing growth while also making a contribution towards tackling identified affordability pressures. 4.3.10 Newcastle and Gateshead authorities intend to add 14,004 new homes by 2017 of which 2,430 are additional. This represents a 21% uplift on previous RSS figures and suggests an annual output of around 1,500 per annum. 4.3.11 Both Gateshead and Newcastle Councils have undertaken Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessments (SHLAA) and Employment Land Reviews (ELR). 4.3.12 However, these do not appear to have identified enough land for some of their expected needs over the Plan period. The two Councils are now undertaking a joint Strategic Land Review (SLR) to establish how much and which land is required to meet their needs. 4.3.13 This is in addition to the land identified in the current SHLAAs and ELRs. This will cover potential new housing sites to meet the needs of a growing population but will also assess sites for warehousing and distribution (in Gateshead), sites for parks and green spaces and any other identified needs which cannot be met from existing available land. 4.3.14 Particular consideration will be given to the type and size of homes which could be developed on each site (due to the apparent shortage of ‘deliverable’ sites for family homes) and how competition between sites may affect the timing and pace of delivery.
4.4 Homelessness 4.4.1 The 2002 Homelessness Act requires all local authorities to review the homelessness situation in their area and develop a strategy to reduce homelessness. 4.4.2 The aim of the Gateshead Homeless Strategy, 2008‐2013 is to set out the Council’s approach to tackling homelessness. 4.4.3 The Strategy is based on a review of homelessness in Gateshead. The review identified the main problems facing homeless clients in the Borough. The Council, via its Supporting People Strategy has already identified areas of need following a needs mapping exercise. For the homelessness review this has been added to by consulting directly with service users and providers to identify other areas of unmet need.
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4.4.4 The Strategy will enable the Council to build on and extend the current range of services to take into account the information from the Review of Homelessness. 4.4.5 The strategy based, on consultation with service users, stakeholders and staff, has four main objectives: ¾ Prevention and working towards the eradication of homelessness ‐ utilising innovative methods to enable households to remain at home or avoid the need to apply as homeless; ¾ Reduction in the use of temporary accommodation; ¾ Working in Partnership to help vulnerable households ‐ linking with stakeholders and agencies to assist applicants; ¾ Continuous service improvement ‐ moving the service forward during the course of the strategy in line with customer and Central Government requirements. 4.4.6 The Gateshead Housing Strategy recommends that the area should make best use of empty homes and continue to work with partners to bring properties back into use. 4.4.7 The Newcastle Homeless Strategy, 2008‐2013 sets out the council approach to tackling homelessness in the city. The aims are to: ¾ Wherever possible reduce homelessness; ¾ Continue to create options and solutions to meet housing need; ¾ Humanely and effectively support people who the council fail to prevent becoming homeless; ¾ Proactively help the most excluded people who sleep rough; ¾ Meet not just accommodation needs but also health, support, care and employment needs; ¾ Develop high quality buildings that create hope and inspire change. 4.4.8 In order to achieve the aims, the council will aspire to: ¾ Work collaboratively to contribute to the Councils corporate objectives; ¾ Recognise the value of existing provision and focus on continued improvement; ¾ Work inclusively involving all stakeholders, clients and service providers ¾ Provide clear and transparent governance arrangements, policies and procedures, service standards, centralised systems that support local service delivery, evidence, monitoring evaluation and review procedures; ¾ Provide high quality, accessible and equitable and inclusive services ¾ See the potential in people, not just the problems. 4.4.9 The strategic objectives are: ¾ Consolidating and extending the prevention of homelessness to reduce demand for crisis accommodation; ¾ Increasing the supply of housing options available to prevent homelessness; ¾ Increasing the amount and quality of housing for those at risk of homelessness;
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¾ Improving governance and strengthening partnerships to meet crosscutting needs.
4.5 Empty Properties 4.5.1 The Gateshead Private Sector Housing Renewal Strategy, 2009‐2012 includes the Council's strategy for dealing with empty properties. The Empty Property Policy is an appendix of the strategy which set out the Council's key objectives and how the Council and its partners will work towards reducing the number of empty properties across Gateshead. 4.5.2 Objective 4 of the strategy is to "Unlock the potential of empty homes to increase housing supply" 4.5.3 The Empty Property Policy's intention is that empty properties, both residential and commercial, public and private sector, are managed quickly and efficiently helping to create sustainable, safe and pleasant communities leading to the provision of housing that meets the needs of local people. It has 4 key aims to:- ¾ Improve understanding at a strategic level of why empty properties exist in Gateshead; ¾ Minimise the length of time a property stands empty; ¾ Improve information and communication about empty properties for residents, owners and other interested parties; ¾ Make use of empty properties to meet housing needs. 4.5.4 As part of a national push to get empty properties back into use, the Council have set up a means by which people can report empty properties so that the council can do something about them. An Empty Property Officer is dedicated to bringing empty properties back into use and make a positive improvement to neighbourhoods throughout Gateshead. This officer is supported by the Private Sector Housing Renewal Team to tackle the increasing numbers of abandoned properties going to waste in Gateshead. 4.5.5 Newcastle has approximately 5,000 empty homes, of which nearly 600 are long term empties. 4.5.6 The Newcastle Housing Strategy Refresh recognises the need to make best use of the existing stock and the council will strengthen its role in bringing empty private properties back into use through enforcement or assistance to return them to owner occupation.
4.6 Supporting People 4.6.1 Supporting People is the Governments long term policy to enable local authorities to plan, commission and provide housing related support services that help vulnerable people to live independently. 4.6.2 Both Newcastle and Gateshead have strategies in place which set out the principles and processes that the authorities will use to develop the supporting people programme. 4.6.3 The Gateshead Community Based Services for Adults ‘Strategic Commissioning for Independence, Wellbeing and Choice, 2009‐2015, has been designed to complement and support a range of national and local policy drivers and to create a modernisation pathway for service provision in Gateshead. The strategy focuses on adult service provision. The strategy aims to:‐ ¾ Assess the needs of the Gateshead population, seeking to achieve outcomes for the whole community, not just those eligible for social care support;
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¾ Analyse gaps in the effectiveness of existing provision and develop plans or strategies to meet those needs within available resources; ¾ Influence and re‐shape the market and purchase services from providers; ¾ Influence and work within a wider range if organisations, encouraging a partnership approach that will have an integral role to play and a strong influence over the health and well being of the community; ¾ Monitor and review the impact of services to drive up quality. 4.6.4 Commissioning Health and Wellbeing (Department of Health March 2007, final guidance 13 December 2007) set out a requirement for Joint Strategic Needs Assessment as a means for PCTs and local authorities to describe the future health, care and well‐being needs of local populations and the strategic direction of service delivery to meet those needs. 4.6.5 Gateshead Council has worked in partnership with the local NHS to complete a Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (2010). The Assessment sets out to understand the health, well being and social care needs of people who live in Gateshead and identifies the key priorities for inclusion into action plans to address them. 4.6.6 As well as re‐shaping the service offered to local people it will also ensure that the services provide value for money. 4.6.7 In Newcastle, Supporting People is managed by a partnership between Newcastle City Council, the Probation Service for Northumbria and North of Tyne Primary Care Trust. The partnership commissions services for people of all ages and with a wide range of different support needs, to help them live independently in the community. 4.6.8 The partnership buys around 250 different Newcastle services, including emergency alarms for older people, supported housing for people leaving prison or coping with drug or alcohol problems, homeless hostels and support for people with learning disabilities to live in their own homes. 4.6.9 The Newcastle Supporting People Strategy, 2008/09‐2012/13 sets out the direction for the coming years and identifies the ways in which the supporting people partners, commissioners and providers will work together to achieve further measurable improvements in quality and access. 4.6.10 The objectives of the strategy aim to make sure that: ¾ Every Newcastle citizen can achieve a stable housing situation which gives him or her the chance to participate positively in the life of our community; ¾ The amount of support offered to each individual is no more and no less than is needed for him or her to achieve an optimum level of independence; ¾ The services providing support are of very high quality, offer excellent value for money and are focused on achieving positive outcomes for service users. 4.6.11 The strategy refers to three key principles in Newcastle’s work: ¾ The whole Supporting People audience – service users, providers and stakeholders – should have access to a range of opportunities to receive information about, and be meaningfully involved in, the development of the programme at all its levels; ¾ Planning should be needs driven and evidence‐based; processes should be transparent, fair and focused on achieving the best possible outcomes for service users;
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¾ Monitoring and other interventions should be proportionate to the risks associated with individual services and situations. 4.6.12 Officers will re‐evaluate their vision regularly to ensure that it continues to provide an appropriate and meaningful focus for the strategy. 4.6.13 Newcastle City Council and Newcastle Primary Care Trust (PCT) have worked together to produce the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA). The JSNA gives an up to date analysis of the health and wellbeing of people in Newcastle. This is a shared resource for commissioners and service providers, and aims to inform effective commissioning by: ¾ Providing data analysis; ¾ Defining where inequalities exist; and ¾ Using local knowledge together with evidence of effectiveness of interventions. 4.6.14 The JSNA has now been set up as an interactive online resource.
4.7 The Private Sector 4.7.1 The Gateshead Private Sector Housing Renewal Strategy, 2009‐2012 aims to improve private sector housing in Gateshead; support sustainable communities and secure housing market renewal. 4.7.2 The four objectives of the strategy are to: ¾ Promote healthy, safe and decent homes in a revitalised housing market; ¾ Support a flexible, secure and thriving private rented sector; ¾ Improve warmth, sustainable energy efficiency and tackle climate change; ¾ Unlock the potential of empty homes to increase housing supply. 4.7.3 An Action Plan forms part of the strategy. This sets out the approach the Private Sector Housing Renewal Team will take to achieve the Strategic Objectives. The strategy and the action plan will be reviewed on an annual basis to respond to changes in both local and national policy, local circumstances and housing market intelligence. 4.7.4 The Newcastle Housing Strategy Refresh outlines private housing as a key priority, believing that it has a key influence on the character of the City’s homes and its quality of place. Emphasis is placed on making better use of the existing stock and that well targeted spending on existing stock can yield social and financial benefits more cheaply than building new housing.
4.8 The Needs of Specific Household Groups 4.8.1 The Gateshead Housing Strategy, 2007‐2012 is committed to meeting the needs of Gypsies, Travellers, Faith Groups and BME communities. It sets out the aim of improving the choice of appropriate housing and looks to secure finance to provide a second site for Gypsies and Travellers to help meet their needs. 4.8.2 The Gateshead Councils Housing Strategy for Older People, 2007‐2012 aims to re‐balance the older persons housing market, to ensure independence and social inclusion and ensure that older people have active and fulfilling lives within sustainable communities. 4.8.3 The four housing objectives of the strategy are to: ¾ Ensure that the housing options available to older people more closely meet their aspirations and create choice;
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¾ Support people to stay in their own home for longer; ¾ Support independence and social inclusion; ¾ Ensure that older people have access to warm and eco friendly housing in safe and secure communities. 4.8.4 Through the Housing Strategy for older people it is envisioned that Gateshead will be a place where older people want to live and ensure that the overall vision of the Borough of “Local people realising their full potential, enjoying the best quality of life in a healthy, equal, prosperous and sustainable Gateshead” is achieved. 4.8.5 The Gateshead Housing Strategy sets out the following aims to assist older people: ¾ More two bedroom homes for older people – Due to the population increase projected in older people aged 60+, more two bedroom homes will be needed to meet the needs and aspirations of older people and will enable existing, unsuitable accommodation to be replaced; ¾ Enabling people to remain in their home – support people to remain in their home by providing appropriate support and care and adaptations and provide assistance to homeowners to allow improvements and repairs to be carried out; ¾ Providing more specialist accommodation – provide homes and resources to meet the needs of an ageing population and those with a limiting long term illness which is high quality, specialist accommodation in locations people want at prices they can afford. 4.8.6 The Newcastle Housing Strategy Refresh sets out the following for older people: ¾ The provision of information and advice to help them make the right choices at the right time for them; ¾ Access to services to help older people live independently; ¾ A range of good quality housing options in well designed neighbourhoods 4.8.7 Newcastle City Council, the Elders Council of Newcastle and the Quality of Life Partnership have developed 'Everyone's Tomorrow' ‐ the strategy for older people and an ageing population in Newcastle. It covers the period 2007 to 2017 and sets out a vision of an age‐ friendly city, where older people are valued and respected and the changing needs and higher aspirations of everyone aged over 50 are considered both today, and the future. The strategy has five key aims: ¾ Making a positive contribution (active citizens); ¾ Accessing information, advice and advocacy; ¾ Physical, mental and emotional health and well‐being; ¾ Enjoying older person friendly environments; ¾ Financially and materially secure. 4.8.8 Newcastle Housing Strategy Refresh has a priority aim of ‘Supporting mixed communities including older people, young people, BME communities and disabled people and different stages of life. It sets out the following actions: ¾ Promote mixed communities; ¾ Improve older persons Housing Choices;
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¾ Support young people’s independence; ¾ Better match black and minority ethnic housing requirements; ¾ Respond to the housing needs of specific communities; ¾ Improve disabled peoples housing; ¾ Priorities supported housing needs; 4.8.9 In addition, the strategy recognises that a key issue which needs to be addressed is the growth in student numbers which has not been supported by an increase in the availability of purpose built student accommodation, with the shortfall being taken up by the private rented sector in a few neighbourhoods in the City. 4.8.10 The Newcastle Student Housing Strategy (September 2009) sets out a number of actions to facilitate a more balanced student housing market by facilitating the provision of additional purpose built student accommodation whilst making sure that the effects of the increase on the rest of the market are monitored.
4.9 Regeneration 4.9.1 The Gateshead Housing Strategy has a key priority of delivering housing market renewal. It sets out a commitment to work with partners to improve the housing market by replacing poor quality housing with new housing which meets household needs and aspirations. 4.9.2 ‘The Gateshead Regeneration Delivery Strategy: Fit for a City’ sets a vision for Gateshead centre of being ‘Fit for a City’ by 2030. The aim is to make a centre that retains and attracts residents, visitors and businesses and is a destination of choice. The strategy sets out the recommended stages in the regeneration of Gateshead centre over the next 15 years. 4.9.3 A key driver of change is ‘Living Gateshead’. The key aim of this driver is a new City population, living in distinctive and modern forms of housing which will provide footfall, activity and spending power to secure the transformation of Gateshead centre. 4.9.4 Both new and existing residents will be part of this population, creating an attractive and sustainable place to live. The housing will be desirable and cleverly designed to make best use of indoor and outdoor space in innovative ways, so achieving a density of development that is appropriate in a city location whilst meeting the needs of families. 4.9.5 ‘Newcastle in 2021 – A Regeneration strategy for Newcastle’ sets out how the City Council will drive forward regeneration across all areas and communities and what it hopes to achieve by 2021. To make sure that the right choice of homes is provided, Newcastle City Council aims to: ¾ work with partners to build 15,000 new homes; ¾ ensure housing in Newcastle meets the diverse needs and lifestyles of people; ¾ take action to address shortages in family sized homes, affordable housing and larger housing; ¾ work with the City’s universities and Newcastle College to deliver a student housing strategy; ¾ introduce a better mix of tenures and housing types with emphasis in environmental quality and a high standard of neighbourhood management; ¾ bring public and private homes up to modern standards of repair;
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¾ protect the character of our most successful and distinctive neighbourhoods and ensue that local people are involved in developing local plans with an emphasis on environmentally sustainable design of homes and neighbourhoods; ¾ Focus on the housing and support needs of older people, disabled people, students and vulnerable people.
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5 DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT & FORECASTS
5.1 Introduction 5.1.1 Changes in population and household profiles are key to understanding the level of housing need and demand within an area. 5.1.2 Demographic change creates the need for different levels and types of housing provision and is a key factor influencing the requirements for market and affordable housing. Migration can be an important factor in demographic structure. 5.1.3 The number, type and size of households in an area directly relates to the requirements for different types and size of home. 5.1.4 This section aims to provide an understanding of the:‐ ¾ Historical demographic profile (1999‐2009); ¾ Current demographic profile; ¾ Projected Demographic profile (2008‐2033); ¾ Current composition, size and number of households; ¾ Projected household structure change; ¾ Forecast change in household numbers. 5.1.5 The data has been sourced from:‐ ¾ 1991 and 2001 Census; ¾ 2009 Office for National Statistics (ONS) Mid‐Year Population Estimates; ¾ ONS Long Term Sub‐national projections (2008 based); ¾ 2010 Primary Housing Survey data.
5.2 The Demographic Structure (1999‐2009) 5.2.1 This section analyses the demographic change over the last 10 years (1999‐2009). 5.2.2 The 2009 Mid Year population estimates were used. These Population Estimates reflect the local authority administrative boundaries that were in place on 30 June of 2009. 5.2.3 The population was 284,300 people in Newcastle and 190,800 people in Gateshead. 5.2.4 Since 1999, Newcastle has experienced an increase in population of around 4.9% (+13,300 people). Gateshead has seen a small decrease of ‐1.3% (‐2,500). 5.2.5 Tyne & Wear sub‐region has seen an increase in population of +1.0% and the North East region an increase of +1.3%. The population in England rose by 5.7% over the period. Table 5‐1 Population Change, 1999‐2009 Population Population Absolute Area % Change 1999 2009 Change Newcastle 271,000 284,300 +13,300 +4.9 Gateshead 193,300 190,800 ‐2,500 ‐1.3 Tyne & Wear 1,095,500 1,106,400 +10.900 +1.0 North East 2,550,300 2,584.300 +34,000 +1.3 England 49,032,900 51,809,700 +2,776,800 +5.7 Source: ONS Mid‐Year Population Estimates (1999‐2009)
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5.2.6 The age structure of a population influences future housing requirements. 5.2.7 Fig. 5‐1 below presents the age profile of Gateshead and Newcastle based on 2009 ONS mid‐ year estimates, compared with the benchmark areas of Tyne & Wear, the North East region and England. Fig. 5‐1 Age Structure Breakdown, 2009
100% 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 85+ 90% 12.3 15.7 14.4 15.0 14.0
80% 22.0 65-84 70% 26.3 25.5 26.7 25.2
60% 45-64
50% 26.9 26.8 26.7 25.6 27.8 40% 25-44
30% 21.6 12.6 15.3 14.1 13.3 15-24 20%
10% 15.0 16.6 16.0 16.5 17.5 0-14 0% Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England
Source: ONS 2009 Mid‐Year Population Estimate 5.2.8 Newcastle has a higher proportion of those in the 15‐24 age group and a lower proportion of the population in the 45‐64 and 65‐84 age groups compared to the Gateshead and the wider benchmark areas. 5.2.9 It is important to examine whether population growth is being driven by expansion in one or more specific age brackets, as this may indicate demand for a particular type or tenure of housing. 5.2.10 Fig. 5‐2 highlights the percentage change in population in the benchmark areas for the ten year period 1999 to 2009, broken down by age group. Fig. 5‐2 Percentage Population Change by Age Group – 1999‐2009
40.0
30.0
20.0 Newcastle Gateshead 10.0 Tyne & Wear North East England 0.0
-10.0 0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65-84 85+
-20.0
Source: ONS 2009 Mid‐year Estimates
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Table 5‐2 Population Change by Age Group (%) – 1999‐2009 Area 0 ‐ 14 15 ‐ 24 25 ‐ 44 45 ‐ 64 65 ‐ 84 85+ Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Nos. % Newcastle ‐5,600 ‐11.6 +16,000 +35.2 ‐1,000 ‐1.3 + 5,800 +10.2 ‐3,100 ‐8.1 +1,100 +22.4 Gateshead ‐4,000 ‐11.3 +3,100 +14.8 ‐5,900 ‐10.4 + 3,500 +17.5 ‐ 0 0.0 +700 +22.6 Tyne & Wear ‐9,600 ‐11.5 +19,100 +28.7 ‐6,900 ‐5.1 + 9,300 +9.0 ‐3,100 ‐4.5 +1,800 +22.5 North East ‐55,600 ‐11.5 +51,800 +16.5 +65,500 ‐9.1 +78,100 +12.8 +13,800 +3.7 +12,300 +29.3 England ‐337,500 ‐ 3.6 +985,200 +16.8 ‐ 105,900 ‐ 0.7 +1,560,200 +13.6 +445,400 +6.5 +229,600 +24.6
Source: ONS 2009 Mid‐year Estimates 5.2.11 Fig. 5‐2 and Table 5‐2 above show that the population changes across all age bands between 1999 and 2009 vary across the benchmark areas. All areas experience a decrease in the 0‐14 age groups and in the 25‐44 age groups. These are the key family forming and moving households. 5.2.12 All the benchmark areas experienced an increase in the 45‐64 age group, a level of 10.2% Newcastle and 17.5% in Gateshead. Increases in the 15‐24 and 85+ age groups were evident across all the benchmark areas. 5.2.13 If historic trends persist, this pattern suggests that future population increases are likely to be increasingly underpinned by the growth in older age groups and those most associated with owner‐occupied properties. This will be examined below using future population projections.
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5.3 The Future Population (2008‐2033) 5.3.1 There are four basic components to change in the number and composition of households:‐ ¾ the age distribution of the population arising from births, deaths and ageing of the indigenous population; ¾ change in family units such as marriage, divorce and child bearing patterns; ¾ the number and composition of households arising from migration, particularly due to employment opportunities in the area; ¾ the probabilities that family units form a separate household. 5.3.2 In local area forecasting, new household formation is mainly due to responses to income and employment opportunities. New household formation is also affected by life cycle patterns. This purely demographic influence on the number of households contributes to about 40% of the growth in the number of new households at any one time (Dicks, 1988; Ermisch, 1985). 5.3.3 The general demographic forecasts in the tables in this section are ONS 2008‐based sub‐ national projections, published on the 27 May 2010. The projections reflect the local Government structure in place mid‐2008.
5.4 Newcastle Population change 5.4.1 The table below shows an overall predicted increase in the population of Newcastle of 40,400 between 2008 and 2033; an increase of 14.5% over the forecast period. This compares to an increase of 10.3% for the Tyne & Wear sub‐region over the same period. Table 5‐3 Newcastle Population Change, 2008 – 2033 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 Change Total 277,800 289,500 296,300 302,300 310,800 318,200 Population Change +11,700 +6,800 +6,000 +8,500 +7,400 +40,400 % Change + 4.2 + 2.3 + 2.0 + 2.8 + 2.4 + 14.5 Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS), 27 May 2010 5.4.2 The population forecast is dis‐aggregated into age bands, because there may be changes in the population structure with significant housing implications. This table shows a comparison with the Tyne & Wear population age band percent change for the same period. Table 5‐4 Newcastle Population Age Band Forecast, 2008 – 2033 Tyne & Age Change 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 Change Wear bands (%) Change% 0 ‐ 19 63,300 64,300 66,300 69,900 72,300 72,800 +9,500 +15.0 +3.1 20 ‐ 29 63,200 70,600 69,500 65,300 66,600 70,000 +6,800 +10.8 +1.8 30 ‐ 44 48,900 49,000 53,200 59,800 61,300 59,500 +10,600 +21.7 +11.0 45 ‐ 64 61,300 63,000 62,400 59,000 57,600 58,800 ‐2,500 ‐4.0 ‐2.7 65+ 41,000 42,600 44,900 48,400 53,000 57,000 +16,000 +39.0 +47.5 TOTAL 277,800 289,500 296,300 302,300 310,800 318,200 +40,400 +14.5 +10.3 Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS), 27 May 2010 5.4.3 In the 0 to 19 age range, Newcastle shows an increase over the forecast period of 9,500 people (+15.0). This is compared to the Tyne & Wear sub‐region, which is projected to show a rise of 3.1% in this age group.
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5.4.4 The 20 to 29 age range comprises new households forming and will have implications for the future as affordable housing will be needed both in the short and longer term. Overall this age group shows an increase of 10.8% (6,800 people), compared to the Tyne and Wear sub‐ region which is projected to rise by 1.8%. 5.4.5 Statistics for the 30 to 44 age groups comprises both newly forming and young family households. This age group shows a rise of 21.7% (10,600) over the forecast period, compared to the Tyne and Wear sub‐region, which is estimated to rise by 11.0%. 5.4.6 The 45 to 64 age group shows a fall of 2,500 people by 2033, an decrease of 4.0%, compared to the wider Tyne & Wear sub‐region where this age group is projected to fall by 2.7%. 5.4.7 The most significant feature in the population projections is the projected growth of the population in the over 65 age group, a rise of 39.0% by 2033 (16,000 people), lower than the projected increase of 47.5% in the Tyne and Wear sub‐region. 5.4.8 The projected growth in the over 65 population is detailed further in the table below. Table 5‐5 Numbers of 65+ in Newcastle, 2008 ‐ 2033 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 Change 65‐69 10,100 11,800 11,900 12,800 14,100 13,800 +3,700 70‐74 10,000 9,000 10,700 10,800 11,700 13,000 +3,000 75‐79 8,700 8,600 7,900 9,500 9,700 10,600 +1,900 80‐84 6,300 6,700 6,900 6,600 8,000 8,700 +2,400 85+ 5,900 6,500 7,500 8,700 9,500 11,400 +5,500 Total 41,000 42,600 44,900 48,400 53,000 57,000 +16,000 Change +1,600 +2,300 +3,500 +4,600 +16,000 % Change +3.9 +5.4 +7.8 +9.5 +7.5 +39.0 Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS), published 27 May 2010 5.4.9 The 85+ age group shows a large increase overall of 5,500 people, a 93.2% increase between 2008 and 2033. 5.4.10 The City Council have a major concern that basing a 25‐year projection on just the last four years worth of data is not robust, particularly when migration patterns over this period have changed so dramatically as compared with previous years. 5.4.11 That there is limited local evidence to support quite the level of growth recorded by the ONS between 2004 and 2008 also raises major concern as to the use of this data to inform long‐ term projections. 5.4.12 The following chart shows the degree of divergence between recent population projections issued by ONS. Some variation is inevitable in respect of authorities such as Newcastle where the long‐term trend of population loss is in the process of reversing, patterns of migration are complex and volatile and policy intervention should ensure an increased focus of development within Newcastle than in previous years. 5.4.13 However, the 2008‐based population projection at 2030 is 22,000 (7.5%) more than under the previous, 2006‐based projection and around 57,000 (22%) more than under the Revised 2004‐based projection. To accommodate this theoretical population growth would require a build rate more than twice that achieved over the past twenty years.
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Fig. 5‐3 Comparison of ONS Population Projections for Newcastle upon Tyne
Comparison of ONS Population projections for Newcastle upon Tyne 320 Draft 2002-based 310 2003-based 2004-based 2004-based (revised) 300 2006-based 2008-based 290
280
270 Population (000's) Population 260
250
240
4 7 9 2 4 5 7 9 0 2 4 5 7 9 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 23 2 2 2 28 2 3 200320 2005200620 200820 2010201120 201320 20 201620 201820 20 202120 20 20 20 202620 20 20 20
5.4.14 Newcastle City Council acknowledges the difficulties inherent in estimating population let alone in producing robust population projections for areas such as Newcastle and would welcome a constructive dialogue with ONS with a view towards producing more accurate estimates and productions. 5.4.15 Population projection will be closely monitored. Normally although numbers change, the broad pattern of age group change tends to be similar. This may not prove to be the case in Newcastle when the 2011 Census data is available, expected to be in late 2012.
5.5 Gateshead Population Change 5.5.1 The table below shows an overall predicted increase in the population of Gateshead of 15,000 between 2008 and 2033, an increase of 7.9% over the forecast period. Table 5‐6 Gateshead Population Change, 2008 – 2033 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 Change Total 189,900 192,000 195,200 198,900 202,000 204,900 Population Change +2,100 +3,200 +3,700 +3,100 +2,900 +15,000 % Change + 1.1 + 1.7 + 1.9 + 1.6 + 1.4 + 7.9 Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS), 27 May 2010
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5.5.2 The table below shows the age breakdown for Gateshead. Table 5‐7 Gateshead Population Age Band Forecast, 2008 – 2033 Tyne & Age Change Wear 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 Change bands (%) Change (%) 0 ‐ 19 43,800 42,200 42,300 43,400 43,900 43,600 ‐200 ‐0.5 +3.1 20 ‐ 29 24,200 26,300 25,300 23,000 22,600 24,000 ‐200 ‐0.8 +1.8 30 ‐ 44 38,800 37,000 39,200 43,600 44,500 42,600 +3,800 +9.8 +11.0 45 ‐ 64 49,500 50,500 50,600 48,400 47,100 47,500 ‐2,000 +4.0 ‐2.7 65+ 33,700 36,000 38,000 40,500 43,900 47,100 +13,400 +39.8 +47.5 TOTAL 189,900 192,000 195,200 198,900 202,000 204,900 +15,000 +7.9 +10.3 Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS), 27 May 2010 5.5.3 In the 0 to 19 age range, Gateshead shows a decrease over the forecast period of 200 people (‐0.5%). This is compared to the Tyne & Wear sub‐region, which is projected to show a rise of +3.1% in this age group. 5.5.4 The 20 to 29 age range comprises new households forming and will have implications for the future as affordable housing will be needed both in the short and longer term. Overall this age group shows a decrease of 0.8% (200 people), compared to the Tyne and Wear sub‐ region which is projected to rise by 1.8%. 5.5.5 Statistics for the 30 to 44 age groups comprises both newly forming and young family households. This age group shows a rise of 9.8% (+3,800) over the forecast period, a lower rise than that projected for the Tyne & Wear sub‐region (+11.0%). 5.5.6 The 45 to 64 age group shows a rise of 2,000 people by 2033, an increase of 4.0%, compared to the wider Tyne & Wear sub‐region where this age group is projected to fall by 2.7%. 5.5.7 The most significant feature in the population projections is the projected growth of the population in the over 65 age group, a rise of 39.8% by 2031 (17,500 people), lower than the projected increase of 47.5% in the Tyne and Wear sub‐region. 5.5.8 The projected growth in the over 65 population is detailed further in the table below. Table 5‐8 Numbers of 65+ in Gateshead, 2008 ‐ 2033 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 Change 65‐69 9,100 10,800 10,000 10,500 11,700 11,900 +2,800 70‐74 8,700 8,200 9,900 9,200 9,800 10,900 +2,200 75‐79 7,200 7,400 7,100 8,700 8,200 8,700 +1,500 80‐84 4,900 5,300 5,800 5,800 7,100 6,800 +1,900 85+ 3,800 4,300 5,200 6,300 7,100 8,800 +5,000 Total 33,700 36,000 38,000 40,500 43,900 47,100 Change +2,300 +2,000 +2,500 +3,400 +3,200 +13,400 % Change + 6.8 + 5.6 + 6.6 + 8.4 + 7.3 + 39.8
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS), 27 May 2010 5.5.9 As with the United Kingdom generally, there is forecast to be a large increase of 39.8% in the 65+ age group (+13,400) up to 2031. Given the resource demands often associated with very elderly people, these are significant figures. 5.5.10 The 85+ age group shows a large increase overall of 5,000 people, a 131.6% increase between 2008 and 2033.
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5.6 Implications of population change 5.6.1 This growth in the retired and older population is a common pattern found in the vast majority of local authorities, reflecting the reduction in births from the 1970s and the reduction in deaths in older people due to better housing, working conditions and healthcare. This age group is much more likely to have care and support needs, which need to be assessed in detail by Gateshead and Newcastle Councils. 5.6.2 The key features of population change which impact on the housing market are migration of mainly younger and economically active households and an ageing population with increasing care and support needs. 5.6.3 Changes in the population structure will influence demand for different house types and tenures. Local Development Documents will need to take account of the projected growth in demand in these sectors and the strategic implications of these projections:‐ ¾ The growth in the 20 to 29 age group in all areas could increase on the demand for small units and for affordable housing from newly forming households; ¾ There are increases across the study area in the number of individuals in the 30 to 44 age band, the main economically active, household forming and moving household group. This may impact on the demand for family housing in both market and affordable sectors; ¾ Growth in the number of individuals in the 45 to 64 age group is most likely to increase the demand for higher quality market housing, whilst the increase in the number of people in the 65+ age group will impact on the demand for market and affordable sheltered accommodation†; ¾ As older people tend to remain in their family home after children have left home or after the loss of a partner there is a growing trend of under‐occupation in both sectors of the housing market; ¾ The increase in older householders (i.e. 85+) will have implications for support services, options for housing with support, extra care housing, long term suitability of accommodation, equity release schemes, adaptations, and other age related care requirements.
5.7 Household Profiles (1991 – 2001) 5.7.1 Whilst demographic structure sets the basic framework for housing demand, it is the number, type and size of household in an area that are directly related to the requirements for housing. 5.7.2 2001 Census data revealed that the total number of households in Newcastle was 111,241 in 2001, compared to 111,597 in 1991, a decrease of 356 households (0.3%).
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5.7.3 There were 1,136 (+1.6%) more households in Gateshead in 2001 than there were in 1991. Table 5‐9 Household Growth 1991 – 2001 Household Area 1991 2001 % Change Growth Newcastle 111,597 111,241 ‐356 ‐0.3 Gateshead 82,903 84,264 +1,361 +1.6 Tyne & Wear 452,908 462,820 +9,912 +2.2 North East 1,027,423 1,066,292 +38,869 +3.8 England 18,765,583 20,451,427 + 16,858,844 + 9.0
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001 and 1991 5.7.4 The changing nature of household types has implications for housing demand. 5.7.5 In Newcastle the number of couples without children has increased between 1991 and 2001 (see Table 5‐10 below). Lone parent households have significantly increased in the ten‐year period. Single person households have increased by 2,033 households (5.5%). Table 5‐10 Change of Household Types in Newcastle (1991 to 2001) Household Type 1991 2001 Pensioner 19,744 18,014 One Person Other 17,324 21,087 Pensioner 8,337 32,756 Couple, no children 15,995 Couple with dependent children 19,174 18,877 Family Couple with non‐dependent children 6,289 Lone parent with dependent children 7,895 Lone parent with non‐dependent 6593 3,847 children With dependent children 2,826 Other Students 2,446 16,267 Households Pensioner 578 Other 4,753 Total 111,471 111,241
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001 and 1991
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5.7.6 In Gateshead, the number of single person households has increased by 4,096 households (17.0%). Table 5‐11 Change of Household Types in Gateshead (1991 to 2001) Household Type 1991 2001 Pensioner 14,115 13,935 One Person Other 9,965 14,241 Pensioner 7,208 22,694 Couple, no children 13,730 Couple with dependent children 15,879 17,915 Family Couple with non‐dependent children 6,055 Lone parent with dependent children 6,503 Lone parent with non‐dependent 4,037 3,151 children With dependent children 1,448 Other Students 26 14,161 Households Pensioner 338 Other 1,741 Total 84,878 84,255 Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001 and 1991 5.7.7 The 2010 housing survey collected more recent data on household composition. The data for Newcastle is outlined below. Table 5‐12 Newcastle Household Composition (2010) Family Composition % Group % 1 adult over 60 20.3 1 adult under 60 16.0 36.3 1 adult + other 0.0 Couple no child 30.0 Couple with children 21.4 51.9 Couple + others 0.5 Single parent 11.8 11.8 Total 100.0 100.0 Source: 2010 Housing Survey 5.7.8 The data for Gateshead is outlined below. Table 5‐13 Gateshead Household Composition (2010) Family Composition % Group % 1 adult over 60 21.9 1 adult under 60 13.0 34.9 1 adult + other 0.0 Couple no child 31.7 Couple with children 22.9 54.6 Couple + others 0.0 Single parent 10.5 10.5 Total 100.0 100.0 Source: 2010 Housing Survey
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5.7.9 Trends in household size and the number of households are crucial in determining the demand for future housing. Future changes in the number of households will be determined by increases in population and the extent to which an area follows the trends in falling household size. This also has implications as to the size of property that will be required. 5.7.10 The average number of people per household was 2.28 in Newcastle and 2.24 in Gateshead, compared to Tyne & Wear (2.28), the North East region (2.32) and nationally (2.36). Fig. 5‐4 Average Number of People per Household, 2001
2.4 2.36 2.32 2.3 2.28 2.28 2.24 household 2.2 per
2.1 People 2 Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001 5.7.11 Gender also has an influence on the mix and location of housing need and demand. Evidence has shown that households where the Household Reference Person (HRP) (i.e. the main or only wage earner) is female tend to have lower rates of home ownership than households where the HRP is male. 5.7.12 Female HRP households are also over‐represented in older age groups compared with male HRP households as women tend to have a longer life expectancy. 5.7.13 Fig. 5‐5 below shows the proportions of male and female HRP households. Fig. 5‐5 Proportion of Female and Male headed HRP Households
70
60.5 60 57.2 57.1 58.4 55.3
50 44.7 42.8 42.9 41.6 39.5 40 Male HRP Female HRP 30
20
10
0 Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001 (Household Reference Person ‐ HRP) 5.7.14 Gateshead has a slightly lower proportion of male HRP households at 55.3% compared to Newcastle (57.2%), Tyne & Wear (57.1%), the North East (58.4%) and nationally (60.5%).
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5.8 Forecast Change in Households
Household Size 5.8.1 CLG data which is available at a national and North East regional level shows that over the forecast period 2006 to 2029, the average household size in the North East region is projected to fall from 2.26 to 2.02. 5.8.2 This forecast decline in household size to 2029 can be linked to the significant predicted growth in the over 60 population where more older people are living longer; the impact of relationship breakdown; and the increase in the number of single / couple households. 5.8.3 Declining average household size combined with a growing population means there will be a requirement for additional housing units. Fig. 5‐6 2006 Based CLG Household Size Trends and Projections (2006‐2029)
2.35 2.32 2.3 2.26 2.25 2.25 2.19 2.2 2.2 2.15 2.13 2.15 2.11 2.09 2.1 2.08 2.04 2.05 2.02 2 1.95 1.9 1.85 North East England
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2029
Source: CLG Household Projections 5.8.4 Table 5‐14 below outlines the household forecasts for Newcastle from 2006 to 2031. 5.8.5 In March 2009, CLG released household projections for England, Government Office Regions and local authorities. The projections are built on the ONS 2006‐based national and sub‐ national population projections and project to 2031. The next update to these projections will be released by CLG in 2011. 5.8.6 The table below shows the forecast change in household numbers in Newcastle. Table 5‐14 Forecast Change in Households in Newcastle, 2006 – 2031 Tyne & Wear 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Change Change Households 117,000 122,000 126,000 130,000 133,000 136,000 Household +5,000 +4,000 +4,000 +3,000 +3,000 +19,000 +79,000 change % Change +4.3 +3.3 +3.2 +2.3 +2.3 +16.2 +16.5 Source: 2006‐based CLG Household Projections © Crown Copyright 5.8.7 There is predicted to be 19,000 (16.2.%) more households in Newcastle in 2031 than in 2006, a slightly lower rise than that projected for the wider Tyne & Wear sub‐region of 16.5%.
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5.8.8 The table below shows the forecast change in household numbers in Gateshead. Table 5‐15 Forecast Change in Households in Gateshead, 2006 – 2031 Tyne & Wear 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Change Change Households 86,000 89,000 92,000 95,000 97,000 99,000 Household +3,000 +3,000 +3,000 +2,000 +2,000 +13,000 +79,000 change % Change +3.5 +3.4 +3.3 +2.1 +2.1 +15.1 +16.5 Source: 2006‐based CLG Household Projections © Crown Copyright 5.8.9 There is predicted to be 13,000 (15.1%) more households in Gateshead in 2031 than in 2006, a lower rise than that projected for the wider Tyne & Wear sub‐region of 16.5%.
5.9 Key Points 5.9.1 The population (based on ONS 2009 mid year estimates) was 284,300 people in Newcastle and 190,800 people in Gateshead; 5.9.2 ONS 2008‐based sub‐national projections predict an increase in the population of Newcastle of 40,400 people between 2008 and 2033; an increase of 14.5% over the forecast period. 5.9.3 In Gateshead, the population is projected to increase by 15,000 people (+7.9%) in the 25 year period to 2033. 5.9.4 The highest increase in both areas is predicted to be in the 65+ age group, a rise of 39.0% in Newcastle and 39.8% in Gateshead, within this age band the 85+ group grows by 93% and 132% respectively; 5.9.5 There is predicted to be 19,000 (16.2%) more households in Newcastle and +13,000 (+15.1%) in Gateshead by 2031, compared to an increase of 16.5% for the Tyne & Wear sub‐region over the same period (2006‐2031).
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6 ECONOMIC DRIVERS OF DEMAND
6.1 Introduction 6.1.1 The economic development of an area is important in driving change in housing markets, especially due to the effect of migration. This section analyses the recent economic performance in Newcastle and Gateshead and how changes have influenced and interacted with demographic changes as analysed in section 5. 6.1.2 It is important to highlight the reciprocal relationship between economic development and the provision of housing. While there is an obvious and established link between economic development and the requirement for new housing, or economic decline and problems of low demand, the type of housing provided within an area can also play a central role in addressing and facilitating economic development and regeneration objectives. 6.1.3 Local housing markets are sensitive to macro‐economic policies. Interest rates, set by the Bank of England, are monitored by Central Government to achieve and maintain stable, low inflation rates. Higher interest rates can reduce the demand for housing by making it more expensive to borrow money, although households may still aspire to buy in the future. 6.1.4 Interest rates at 2010 are at a very low level when compared to those over the last few decades. Historic rises in interest rates will have affected the affordability of housing and demand for mortgages. Interest rates can also affect employment levels by increasing the cost of investment. 6.1.5 After a long period of economic growth and low levels of unemployment, this assessment has been conducted during a period of major economic uncertainty, particularly in the finance and housing markets. The financial crisis in the mortgage markets has created a major fall in the availability of mortgages and has caused the fastest fall in the volume of property sales and new development for over 60 years. 6.1.6 This has had a significant impact on land values and unemployment in the building industry, the supply chain of manufacturing companies and estate agency sectors. There is a difficulty in predicting how far the economic decline will go and how long the housing market will remain severely depressed, as forecasts and data on activity change virtually every month. In the short term this could have a severe impact on the delivery of a wide range of market housing. Experience of the last recession suggests that developers will build only first time buyer units, more affordable housing and possibly only build to pre‐sales. 6.1.7 However, in the current recession the trend seen by Officers in Newcastle and Gateshead is that of developers building for cash buyers and those who have a large amount of equity in their homes that allow a low loan to value ratio. 6.1.8 Access to regeneration budgets or to the Housing and Communities Agency (HCA) National Affordable Housing Programme can be an important influence on housing supply together with the availability of land. However this budget has been reduced substantially compared to recent years. It should be borne in mind that new build is a small proportion of total stock (less than 2% per annum nationally) and for Newcastle this figure is just two thirds of one percent. 6.1.9 The data for this section has been sourced from:‐ ¾ Annual Business Inquiry Employee Analysis 2008; ¾ ONS Annual Population Survey, October 2008 –September 2009 ; ¾ ONS Claimant Count 2010;
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¾ 2001 Census; ¾ Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 2009; ¾ CORE Housing Associations New Lettings Data, 2009/10; ¾ 2010 Housing Survey data.
6.2 Labour Demand 6.2.1 Labour demand consists of the jobs and vacancies available within an area. 6.2.2 In 2008, the total number of jobs was 192,000 in Newcastle and 101,000 in Gateshead (ONS Jobs Density, 2008). This includes employees, self employed, government supported trainees and HM forces. 6.2.3 The ONS Annual Business Inquiry employee analysis (2008) revealed that there were 175,700 employee jobs in Newcastle and 92,400 in Gateshead (excluding self‐employed, government supported trainees and HM forces (see Table 6‐1 below). 6.2.4 In Newcastle 122,600 jobs were full‐time and 53,100 were part‐time. In Gateshead, 66,900 were full time and 25,500 were part‐time. 6.2.5 The table below shows the employment change over the last 10 years, 1998‐2008. Table 6‐1 Employment Change, 1998‐2008 Absolute 1998 2008 Change % Change
Newcastle 149,000 175,700 +26,700 + 17.9 Gateshead 80,100 92,400 +12,300 + 15.4 Tyne & Wear 441,300 497,900 +56,600 + 12.8 North East 945,700 1,031,100 +85,400 + 9.0 England 21,155,006 23,073,700 +1,918,694 + 9.1
Source: ONS Annual Business Inquiry Employee Analysis, 2008 Note: 2008 Figures have been rounded. Employee jobs exclude self –employed, government supported trainees and HM Forces 6.2.6 Between 1998 and 2008, employment levels have increased by around 17.9% in Newcastle and 15.4% in Gateshead. 6.2.7 The growth of employee jobs in both areas was higher than the North East region level of 12.8% and above the North East rise of 9.0% and the England increase of 9.1%. 6.2.8 The overall rise in employment levels in the Newcastle and Gateshead mean that mobile households are likely to relocate to the area, increasing demand on the housing stock. 6.2.9 Fig. 6‐1 suggests that the level of employment across Newcastle and Gateshead fluctuated over the ten years between 1998 and 2008. Employment levels peaked in 2005 in all areas and although employment levels reduced in the years 2006 to 2007, they have still remained high when compared to previous years.
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6.2.10 However, this pattern changed due to the impact of the recession and rising unemployment and falling levels have been seen in the two year period 2006‐2008. Fig. 6‐1 Indexed Employment Growth, 1998‐2008 (1998 = 100)
130
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England
Source: Annual Business Inquiry Employee Analysis, 1998‐2008 6.2.11 The occupational structure of a population can be used to assess the competitiveness of an economy. Fig. 6‐2 outlines the split by occupation of those who live in Newcastle and Gateshead and are in work, based on the Standard Occupational Classification System from the 2008 Annual Population Survey. The occupational structure of the workforce is related to the types of industry prevalent within the economy. 6.2.12 Within Newcastle, the largest groups in absolute terms are those in professional occupations (16.6%) followed by elementary occupations (16.2%). 6.2.13 A large number of residents who are in professional occupations in Newcastle are employed in the public sector and are likely to experience a significant reduction over the next few years. Therefore, the more mobile, educated population could leave the Region to secure employment elsewhere.
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6.2.14 In Gateshead, the occupational structure is fairly evenly spread across the groups. Fig. 6‐2 Occupational Structure, 1998‐2008
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England Elementary 16.2 12.1% 12.8 12.1% 11.6% Process plant & machine operatives 7.5 9.1% 8.9 8.5% 6.7% Sales & Customer Service 10.8 9.1% 9.3 8.9% 7.3% Personal Services 9.3 10.9% 9.2 9.9% 8.4% Skilled Trades 6.3 10.1% 10.0 10.3% 10.3% Administrative & secretarial 11.1 13.9% 12.2 11.9% 11.3% Associate professional & technical 12.2 12.8% 13.7 13.5% 14.8% Professional Occupations 16.6 10.2% 11.6 11.7% 13.5% Managers & Senior Officials 10.0 11.8% 12.2 13.2% 16.1%
Source: Annual Population Survey, 1998 ‐ 2008
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6.2.15 Fig. 6‐3 below details the proportions of workforce employed across the nine occupation groups. 6.2.16 Groups 1 to 3 contain managers & senior officials, professional occupations and associate professional & technical occupations, 6.2.17 Groups 4 to 5 contain administrative & secretarial and skilled trades; 6.2.18 Groups 6 to 7 contain personal service occupations and sales & customer service occupations; 6.2.19 Groups 8 to 9 contain process plant & machine operatives and those working in elementary (unskilled) occupations. Fig. 6‐3 Levels of Population by Occupation Group (2008‐2009)
100% 18.0 90% 23.9 21.4 21.9 20.7 80% 15.8 70% 19.1 18.3 19.3 18.7 60% 21.6 50% 22.3 17.6 24.4 21.6 40%
30% 44.6 20% 39.2 35.1 37.8 38.7 10%
0% Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England
Occupation groups 1‐3 Occupation groups 4‐5 Occupation groups 6‐7 Occupation groups 8‐9
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey, October 2008‐ September 2009 6.2.20 Newcastle and Gateshead have the largest proportion of its workforce in occupation groups 1 to 3 (managers & senior officials, professional occupations and associate professional & technical occupations) at 39.2% and 35.1% respectively. This is comparable to the Tyne & Wear average (37.8%), the North East region (38.7%) but below the national average (44.6%). 6.2.21 This suggests that Newcastle in particular has a comparatively higher concentration of its labour force employed in higher wage sectors which may increase the demand for larger executive housing in the area. 6.2.22 The demand for larger, executive housing is met in Newcastle in areas such as Gosforth and Jesmond and a wider choice of executive properties is also available within the wider TTWA, notably in Northumberland (including Darras Hall and the Tyne Valley).
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6.2.23 The breakdown of employment in Newcastle and Gateshead and the benchmark areas by broad sector, within the 10 year period from 1998 to 2008 is shown below. Fig. 6‐4 ABI Employment by Broad Sector, 1998 ‐ 2008
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0% 1998 2008 1998 2008 1998 2008 1998 2008 1998 2008 Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England
Other services 5.9 6.3 5.8 3.8 5.5 4.8 5.3 4.8 4.6 5.3 Public admin, education & health 35.6 37.5 20.5 26.4 27.0 31.1 28.1 32.2 23.1 26.4 Banking, Finance and IT 19.9 23.4 11.7 15.9 13.1 18.9 12.7 16.6 19.3 22.7 Transport & communications 4.9 5.3 6.8 6.0 4.7 5.5 4.8 5.3 6.0 6.0 Distribution, hotels & restaurants 20.7 19.0 27.6 26.2 22.9 22.2 22.4 22.1 24.4 23.5 Construction 3.7 2.9 5.7 7.0 5.9 5.1 5.5 5.6 4.3 4.6 Manufacturing 8.4 5.2 21.1 14.4 20.2 11.5 19.7 12.6 16.6 10.1
Source: Annual Business Inquiry Employee Analysis, 2008 6.2.24 In 2008, the most important sectors within the Newcastle economy in absolute employment terms were public admin, health and education (37.5%), banking, finance and IT (23.4%). Newcastle has seen a growth in these sectors in the 10 year period between 1997 and 2007. 6.2.25 In Gateshead, the most important sectors were public admin, health and education (26.4%) and distribution, hotels and restaurants (27.6%). 6.2.26 Both Gateshead and Newcastle has experienced a decline in the manufacturing sector, a decrease of 3.2% in Newcastle and 6.7% in Gateshead. This is compared to the decrease seen in Tyne & Wear (8.7%), the North East region (7.1%) and nationally (6.5%). 6.2.27 The sectors share of overall employment decreased by around two‐fifths in Newcastle (broadly in line with the national trend) and a third in Gateshead.
6.3 Labour Supply 6.3.1 It is important to understand the extent to which the working age population is engaged with the labour market. The ONS defines the working age population as comprising females aged 16‐59 and males aged 16‐64. 6.3.2 Labour supply consists of people who are employed as well as people defined as unemployed or economically inactive, who can be considered to be a potential labour supply. Information in this section relates to the characteristics of people living in an area. 6.3.3 At 2008 (ONS mid‐year population estimates) there were estimated to be around 180,400 people in Newcastle and 117,200 in Gateshead of working age.
73 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2010
6.3.4 Data from the ONS Annual Population Survey (October 2008 ‐ September 2009) provides an indication of the number of people in employment (either as an employee or self employed). It also provides an insight into the level of unemployment within an area. Table 6‐2 Employment & Unemployment Rates, 2008‐2009 Employment Rate* Unemployment Rate** Newcastle 61.5 11.5 Gateshead 71.3 8.5 Tyne & Wear 68.7 9.8 North East 69.1 9.2 England 73.0 7.4
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey (October 2008‐September 2009) * People who are either a paid employee or self employed and of working age (16‐64). Expressed as a percentage of all people in this group ** People without a job who are available to start work. Note: Figures do not add up to 100% due to the exclusion of people unable to work due to reasons such as incapacity 6.3.5 In 2008/09, Newcastle had an employment rate of 61.5%, lower than Gateshead (71.3%) the Tyne & Wear average, the North East region and nationally. The low rate of employment in Newcastle could be partly due to a high level of its residents working age population being in full time education at the two universities. 6.3.6 The unemployment rate in 2008/09 was 11.5% in Newcastle, higher than the Gateshead level of 8.5%, the Tyne & Wear average of 9.8% and the North East region average of 9.2%. 6.3.7 The current economic recession has already had an impact on job losses and forecasts are that a further million people may be made redundant nationally, increasing the jobless total to 3.2 million people. 6.3.8 An alternative measure of unemployment is to review the proportion of people claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) (previously known as Unemployment Benefit). JSA is payable to people under pensionable age who are available for and actively seeking work. Due to restrictions in claiming JSA, this figure is likely to understate the true level of unemployment, as some unemployed people seeking work choose not to claim benefits.
74 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2010
6.3.9 Fig. 6‐5 shows the proportion of working age residents in Newcastle and Gateshead and the wider benchmark areas claiming Job Seekers Allowance as at May 2010. Fig. 6‐5 JSA Claimant %‐ May 2010
6.0%
5.2% 4.9% 5.0% 5.0% 4.7%
3.9% 4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0% Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England
Source: ONS Claimant Count, May 2010 6.3.10 The DWP also collect data on the proportion of working age people claiming key out of work benefits (consisting of job seekers allowance, incapacity benefits, lone parents and others on income related benefits). 6.3.11 The data at November 2009 for Newcastle and Gateshead and the wider benchmark areas is shown below. Newcastle has an out of work benefit claimant level of 18.7%, lower than Gateshead, the Tyne & Wear and the North East but higher than nationally. Fig. 6‐6 Key Out of Work Benefit Claimants (%), November 2009
25.0%
21.0% 20.7% 20.4% 20.0% 18.7%
15.4% 15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0% Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England
Source: Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) benefit claimants, November 2009)
75 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2010
6.3.12 2001 Census data showed that Newcastle and Gateshead have a lower level of retired population compared to the Tyne & Wear sub‐region and the North East region and the national average. 6.3.13 The low proportion of retired population in Newcastle is understandable due to the impact of high levels of in‐migration of young adults (particularly students). Fig. 6‐7 Level of Retired Population
25.0%
20.0% 19.2% 19.3%
16.8% 15.9%
15.0% 13.2%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0% Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001
6.4 Commuters 6.4.1 The SHMA Practice Guidance “Identifying Sub‐regional Housing Market Areas” Advice Note (Annex to Strategic Housing Market Assessments Practice Guidance) states that it is important when analysing the dynamics of the housing market to assess travel to work patterns. 6.4.2 Travel to work data can provide information about commuting flow and the spatial structure of the labour market which will influence property price and location. It can also provide information about areas within which people move without changing other aspects of their lives. Commuting patterns between Newcastle and Gateshead and other authorities within the Tyne & Wear City Region have been examined in section 3.6. 6.4.3 The data below further examines commuting behaviour by assessing commuting distance and mode of transport. 6.4.4 Fig. 6‐8 presents a breakdown of workers by the distance they commute to their workplace. 84.5% of households in Gateshead and 83.3% in Newcastle commute less than 20km to work. This compares with 84.0% of people commuting less than 20 km in Tyne & Wear, 78.9% in the North East region and 73.5% nationally. 6.4.5 Around 7.0% of households work from home in both Newcastle and Gateshead, similar to the level of 6.7% in Tyne & Wear and 7.7% in the North East region, which can indicate a need for larger housing to accommodate a room for work.
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Fig. 6‐8 Commuting Distances of Residents, 2001
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0% Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England upon Tyne Other 3.43.03.43.64.7 Working at or from home 7.07.06.77.79.2 60km and over 2.72.12.62.92.7 40km to less than 60km 0.90.70.71.22.2 30km to less than 40km 0.50.40.61.52.4 20km to less than 30km 2.22.21.94.25.3 10km to less than 20km 9.3 14.0 14.4 16.6 15.2 5km to less than 10km 24.5 27.1 24.5 20.7 18.2 2km to less than 5km 30.7 26.7 26.5 21.9 20.1 Less than 2km 18.8 16.7 18.6 19.7 20.0
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001
77 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2010
6.4.6 When looking at commuters’ mode of transport across Newcastle and Gateshead, the data revealed that almost half of commuters in Newcastle (45.9%) and 50.1% in Gateshead drive to work by car or van. 6.4.7 The combined level of 53.0% (all commuters using car / van either driving or as a passenger) for Newcastle was significantly below the national average of 61.0%. 6.4.8 The combined level in Gateshead of 58.8% is similar to the Tyne and Wear average. Fig. 6‐9 Commuters Mode of Transport
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0% Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England upon Tyne Other 0.50.50.80.80.5 On foot 11.1 8.8 9.6 10.2 10.0 Bicycle 1.81.01.61.62.8 Taxi or minicab 0.90.60.80.70.5 Passenger in a car or van 7.18.78.59.16.1 Driving a car or van 45.9 50.1 50.1 55.2 54.9 Motor cycle, scooter or moped 0.50.60.60.71.1 Bus, minibus, coach 18.9 17.4 15.2 11.0 7.5 Train 0.90.71.10.94.2 Underground, metro, light rail, tram 5.54.74.82.23.2 Work mainly at or from home 7.07.06.77.79.2
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001
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6.5 Income 6.5.1 Income, and particularly household income, is one of the fundamental determinants of the ability of households to access home ownership or the market rented sector. 6.5.2 Fig. 6‐10 shows the average gross weekly pay by workplace (people who work in the area) and residence (people who live in the area) from the 2009 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE). ASHE provides information about the levels, distribution and make‐up of earnings and hours worked for full‐time employees in all industries and occupations. Fig. 6‐10 Average Gross Weekly Pay, 2009
520
500
480
460
440
420
400
380 Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England Resident 421.6 438.1 428.2 438.8 496.0 Workplace 470.4 427.3 431.9 435.9 495.2 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (2009) 6.5.3 The average residence pay within Newcastle of £421.6 is below the Gateshead level of £438.1, Tyne & Wear (£428.2), the North East region (£438.8) and nationally (£496.0), however average workplace pay in Newcastle is high at £470.4. 6.5.4 The fact that the wages of those working in Newcastle is higher than those living in the City, suggests that a relatively high proportion of people commute into the area for higher paid work but live outside the City. Fig. 6‐11 Average and Lower Quartile Earnings 2004‐2009 per week
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0 Average 25% Average 25% Average 25% Average 25% Average 25% Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England 2004 390.7 284.0 348.1 256.7 366.9 267.8 368.8 268.7 425.9 303.4 2009 421.6 319.3 438.1 336.5 428.2 324.3 438.8 320.0 496.0 351.6
2004 2009
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (2009)
79 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2010
6.5.5 Fig. 6‐11 compares the average weekly residence earnings over a five year period from 2004 to 2009, to the lowest quartile weekly earnings (i.e. the bottom 25%). Both the average and the lowest quartile weekly earnings have increased between 2004 and 2009 in both areas. 6.5.6 The source of income data above assesses individual earnings (ASHE); however data on household incomes is more relevant. CORE (COntinuous REcording) is a system developed jointly by the National Housing Federation (NHF) and the Homes and Communities Agency (HCA). CORE is used to record information on both Registered Social Landlords (RSL) lettings and sales in England. 6.5.7 The CORE data for lettings to new tenants in Council housing and in larger RSLs in the Borough where data has been supplied for the year 2008 / 09 are displayed in the table below. This highlights the median combined household incomes of tenant or tenant and partner, and the mean household income of tenant households. There was no data available for Newcastle. Table 6‐3 CORE Weekly Income Data for New Council Tenants Median Income Mean Income Gateshead 138.00 164.30 Source: CORE LA & Housing Associations' New Lettings Data 2009 /10 6.5.8 The median weekly income for new Council tenants in Gateshead was £130.00, lower than mean income of £164.30.
6.6 Existing Households Incomes and Housing Costs 6.6.1 The 2010 Housing Survey collected data from a sample of existing households on household income, equity and rent and mortgage costs and arrears. 6.6.2 The response rate to the income question from existing households† was 57.5% (68,213 implied) in Newcastle and 58.7% (51,523 implied) in Gateshead. This gives a good indication of the income levels in the area. Table 6‐4 Gross Annual Income of Existing Households Newcastle Gateshead Annual income Newcastle % Gateshead% Cum % Cum % Below £10,000 31.5 31.5 31.2 31.2 £10,000 ‐ £20,000 27.5 59.0 25.4 56.6 £20,001 ‐ £27,000 11.7 70.7 10.6 67.2 £27,001 ‐ £45,000 15.3 86.0 20.6 87.8 £45,001 ‐ £60,000 7.2 93.2 7.2 95.0 £60,001 ‐ £75,000 2.9 96.1 2.9 97.9 £75,001 ‐ £100,000 2.5 98.6 1.4 99.3 Above £100,000 1.4 100.0 0.7 100.0
Source: 2010 Housing Survey Note: Excluding benefits / allowances 6.6.3 The data shows that 31.5% of households in Newcastle and 31.2% in Gateshead had incomes below £10,000. The total proportion earning below £27,000 was 70.7% in Newcastle and 67.2% in Gateshead. 6.6.4 Households were asked a question about the equity that they would receive if they sold their home and cleared any outstanding mortgage.
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6.6.5 Of the 62,565 (implied) households in Newcastle who indicated owner occupation as their current tenure, responses were received from 42,883 (implied) households. 6.6.6 Of the 55,582 (implied) households who indicated owner occupation as their current tenure in Gateshead, responses were received from 39,983 (implied) households. Table 6‐5 Equity of Existing Owner Occupiers
Equity Newcastle % Numbers Gateshead% Numbers
In Negative Equity 0.8 322 1.8 737 Below £10,000 3.8 1,622 3.3 1,333 £10,000 ‐ £30,000 4.6 1,960 6.9 2,757 £30,001 ‐ £50,000 3.8 1,633 6.6 2,643 £50,001 ‐ £70,000 7.1 3,044 8.0 3,184 £70,001 ‐£100,000 11.7 5,034 20.6 8,210 £100,000 ‐ £150,000 27.6 11,844 24.0 9,579 £150,000 ‐ £200,000 19.8 8,491 18.8 7,551 £200,001 ‐ £300,000 14.2 6,085 7.4 2,956 Over £300,000 6.6 2,846 2.6 1,033 Source: 2010 Housing Survey 6.6.7 The highest proportion of households in both areas had equity of between £100,000 and £150,000. 6.6.8 Households were asked to estimate how much they pay in rent or mortgage each month (inclusive of any benefits / allowances). Responses were received from 79,506 (implied) households in Newcastle, a response rate of 66.9% and 52,851 (implied) households in Gateshead, a response rate of 60.2%. Table 6‐6 Existing Households Rent / Mortgage Costs (Per Month)
Costs Newcastle % Numbers Gateshead% Numbers
Below £200 28.6 22,767 32.8 17,316 £201‐ £300 25.6 20,518 22.6 11,967 £301 ‐ £400 14.2 11,318 15.2 8,009 £401 ‐ £500 9.2 7,322 12.5 6,608 £501 ‐ £600 8.0 6,351 7.8 4,140 £601 ‐£700 4.6 3,678 3.3 1,723 £701 ‐ £800 4.0 2,958 3.1 1,648 £801 ‐ £900 1.9 1,480 1.0 524 £901 ‐ £1,000 1.6 1,251 0.7 403 Over £1,000 2.3 2,222 1.0 514 Source: 2010 Housing Survey 6.6.9 54.2% of households in Newcastle and 55.4% in Gateshead pay less than £300 per month in rent / mortgage costs. 6.6.10 Households were asked whether they receive local Housing Allowance (Housing Benefit) to help with housing costs. Responses were received from 102,618 (implied) households in Newcastle (86.8%) and 77,083 (implied) in Gateshead (87.8%). 6.6.11 In Newcastle, 28.9% of households received Housing Allowance (29,672 implied), 20.1% (20.638 implied) receive full benefit and 8.8% (9034 implied) receive part benefits.
81 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2010
6.6.12 In Gateshead, 26.6% of households received Housing Allowance (20,537 implied), 15.5% (11,975 implied) receive full benefit and 11.1% (8,562 implied) receive part benefits. 6.6.13 Households were asked a question about whether they are in mortgage or rent arrears. 6.6.14 94.4% of households in Newcastle and 91.0% in Gateshead specified that they are not in arrears.
6.7 New Forming Households Incomes and Housing Costs 6.7.1 Around 1,942 implied new forming households were found to be currently living in Newcastle and planning to set up a home of their own within Newcastle within the next 3 years. In Gateshead 1,444 new forming households were identified. The survey collected financial information about these households. The findings are outlined below. 6.7.2 The table below outlines the estimated new households annual gross household income in each area. 998 households responded in Newcastle and 963 in Gateshead. Table 6‐7 Annual Income of New Forming Households
Annual income Newcastle % Nos Gateshead% Nos
Below £10,000 18.3 183 35.7 345 £10,001 ‐ £20,000 40.9 407 28.8 278 £20,001 ‐ £27,000 8.8 88 26.7 257 £27,001 ‐ £45,000 22.2 222 0.0 0 Above £45,000 9.8 98 8.6 83 Source: 2010 Housing Survey 6.7.3 The income profile of new forming households differed between the two areas. Gateshead was expected to have a lower earning new household profile with 35.7% expected to earn less than £10,000 compared to 18.3% in Newcastle. 6.7.4 Respondents were asked to estimate how much the new household will be able and willing to pay in rent and or mortgage costs each month. 1,689 implied households in Newcastle and 1,302 implied in Gateshead responded to the question. Table 6‐8 New Forming Rent / Mortgage Costs (Per Month)
Costs Newcastle % Numbers Gateshead% Numbers
Below £200 42.0 710 18.1 236 £201‐ £300 13.1 222 8.5 111 £301 ‐ £400 13.3 224 36.1 471 £401 ‐ £500 5.2 88 30.8 402 £501 ‐ £600 7.5 126 0.0 0 £601 ‐£700 18.9 320 0.0 0 Above £700 0.0 0 6.4 83 Source: 2010 Housing Survey 6.7.5 Despite that fact that new forming households in Newcastle have a lower proportion of households earning less than £10,000, a higher level (42.0% of new forming households) were only able or willing to pay less than £200 per month, compared to 18.1% in Gateshead. 6.7.6 Respondents were asked to estimate how much the new household will be able to raise for a deposit (after allowing for other buying and furniture costs). 1,504 implied households in Newcastle and 1,101 implied in Gateshead responded.
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Table 6‐9 New Forming Households Deposit
Deposit Newcastle % Numbers Gateshead% Numbers
None 61.9 931 40.9 451 Below £2,500 6.5 98 10.5 116 £2,501‐ £5,000 6.3 95 10.1 111 £5,001 ‐ £10,000 0.0 0 15.7 173 £10,001 ‐ £15,000 8.4 126 15.3 168 £15,001 ‐ £25,000 16.8 253 0.0 0 Above £25,000 0.0 0 7.6 83 Source: 2010 Housing Survey 6.7.7 61.9% of new forming households in Newcastle and 40.9% in Gateshead indicated that they would not be able to raise any deposit. 6.7.8 454 implied new forming households are registered on the Your Homes Newcastle Housing Waiting List. In Gateshead, 102 implied are registered on the Your Homes Newcastle list and 122 implied are registered on the Gateshead Housing Company list. 6.7.9 In Newcastle, 264 implied new forming households are likely to claim local Housing Allowance and 95 implied are likely to claim other state benefits. In Gateshead, 321 implied are likely to claim Local Housing Allowance and 111 implied are likely to claim other state benefits. 6.7.10 Of the new households buying a new home, respondents were asked to estimate the maximum value of home they could afford to buy. 689 implied households in Newcastle and 307 implied households in Gateshead responded. Table 6‐10 Residents Maximum Purchase Price
Costs Newcastle % Numbers Gateshead% Numbers
£60,001 ‐ £70,000 0.0 0 16.8 51 £70,001 ‐£80,000 18.3 126 29.1 89 £80,000 ‐£100,000 31.1 214 0.0 0 £100,001,125,000 13.8 95 54.2 166 Above £125,000 36.7 253 0.0 0 Source: 2010 Housing Survey 6.7.11 36.7% of new forming households in Newcastle could afford above £125,000. The maximum value of a home in Gateshead was between £100,001 and £125,000 with 54.2% stating that they could afford to spend this amount.
6.8 BME Households Incomes 6.8.1 11.8% of households in Newcastle and 3.2% in Gateshead were from BME communities. 50.3% of BME households in Newcastle (6,545 implied) and 59.0% (1,703 implied) in Gateshead responded to a question on household income. 6.8.2 It should be noted that due to the low levels of data received the results should not be treated as representative of the BME population in each area and should be treated with caution.
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6.8.3 The incomes of these households are compared with the whole population below in each area. Table 6‐11 Newcastle Gross Annual Income of BME Households All households Annual income % Cumulative % cumulative % Below £10,000 39.5 39.5 31.5 £10,000 ‐ £20,000 20.9 60.4 59.0 £20,001 ‐ £27,000 11.8 72.2 70.7 £27,001 ‐ £45,000 17.5 89.7 86.0 £45,001 ‐ £60,000 3.0 92.7 93.2 £60,001 ‐ £75,000 3.4 96.1 96.1 £75,001 ‐ £100,000 2.1 98.2 98.6 Above £100,000 1.8 100.0 100.0 Total 100.0
6.8.4 The table shows that more BME households earn less than £10,000 (39.5%) compared to the whole Newcastle population (31.5%), and both are much higher than the corresponding UK average figure (20.3%). However income bands from £20,000 upwards are very similar. 6.8.5 The BME household incomes in Gateshead are shown in the table below. Table 6‐12 Gateshead Gross Annual Income of BME Households All households Annual income % Cumulative % cumulative % Below £10,000 13.9 13.9 31.2 £10,000 ‐ £20,000 33.1 47.0 56.6 £20,001 ‐ £27,000 10.4 57.4 67.2 £27,001 ‐ £45,000 27.7 85.1 87.8 £45,001 ‐ £60,000 4.9 90.0 95.0 £60,001 ‐ £75,000 5.1 95.1 97.9 £75,001 ‐ £100,000 0.0 95.1 99.3 Above £100,000 4.9 100.0 100.0 Total 100.0 583.6.0 635.0
6.8.6 Compared to the whole Gateshead population earning less than £10,000 (31.2%), BME households have a much lower proportion of 13.9%. Also a higher proportion, 10% earn above £60,000 than 5% in the whole population.
84 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2010
6.9 Skills and Educational Attainment 6.9.1 Central to the long term growth and productivity of an economy is the level of workforce skills. 6.9.2 Key stage 2 results show the Borough to be performing at a level consistent with national averages. 6.9.3 Fig. 6‐12 presents the latest qualifications data available for the working age population from January 2008 to December 2008 for the Newcastle and Gateshead workforce compared to the benchmark areas. Fig. 6‐12 Educational Attainment (NVQ) (2008)
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Tyne and Newcastle Gateshead North East England Wear NVQ4 and Above 27.3 22.5 24 23.9 28.7 NVQ3 and Above 51.1 41.9 44.1 44.1 46.5 NVQ 2 and Above 66.8 63.8 65 65.6 64.6 NVQ 1 and Above 2.5 2.6 2.5 0.7 0.2 Other Qualifications 9.5 7.9 7.6 7 8.9 No Qualifications 13.3 15.1 13.4 13.4 12.3
Source: Annual Population Survey (January 2008‐December 2008) NVQ: National Vocational Qualification NVQ 1: Entry level or Pre‐GCSE / NVQ2: GCSE or equivalent / NVQ 3: A‐level or equivalent / NVQ 4: Degree or equivalent 6.9.4 Gateshead has a slightly higher proportion of the workforce with no qualifications at 15.1% compared to the benchmark areas. In Newcastle, the proportion of the workforce with an NVQ 4 qualification or above (degree level or equivalent) was high at 27.3% when compared to the Gateshead average (22.5%), the Tyne & Wear average of 24.0% and the North East region average of 23.9%.
85 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2010
6.10 Key Points: ¾ The ONS Annual Business Inquiry employee analysis (2008) revealed that there are around 175,700 employee jobs in Newcastle and 92,400 in Gateshead. ¾ The number of jobs has increased since 1998, a rise of 17.9% in Newcastle and 15.4% in Gateshead. ¾ Around 43% of workers commute to Gateshead and around 29.0% commute to Newcastle. ¾ Newcastle and Gateshead has the largest proportion of its workforce in occupation groups 1 to 3 (managers & senior officials, professional occupations and associate professional & technical occupations) at 39.2% and 35.1% respectively; ¾ In 2008, the most important sectors within the Newcastle economy in absolute employment terms were public admin, health and education (37.5%), banking, finance and IT (23.4%). Newcastle has seen a growth in these sectors in the 10 year period between 1997 and 2007. ¾ In Gateshead, the most important sectors were public admin, health and education (26.4%) and distribution, hotels and restaurants (27.6%). ¾ In 2008/09, Newcastle had an employment rate of 61.5%, lower than Gateshead (71.3%) the Tyne & Wear average, the North East region and nationally. ¾ The average residence pay within Newcastle of £421.60 is below the Gateshead level of £438.10, Tyne & Wear (£428.20), the North East region (£438.80) and nationally (£496.00). However average workplace pay in Newcastle is higher at £470.40.
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7 THE CURRENT HOUSING STOCK
7.1 Introduction 7.1.1 This section examines the characteristics and structure of the current housing supply in Newcastle and Gateshead. 7.1.2 Analysis of the supply of housing allows an assessment of the range, quality and spatial distribution of housing that is currently available in the area. 7.1.3 This analysis is carried out to establish:‐ ¾ The nature of the current stock of housing, by size, type, location and tenure; ¾ How the housing stock has changed over the last decade; ¾ The quality of the current housing stock; ¾ The extent of shared accommodation and communal establishments. 7.1.4 The data has been sourced from:‐ ¾ 1991 and 2001 Census data; ¾ 2010 Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix (HSSA); ¾ Newcastle and Gateshead Local Authority data; ¾ 2010 Housing Survey data.
7.2 The Housing Stock 7.2.1 The change in housing stock between 1991 and 2001 was analysed using Census data. The 2010 housing stock data was obtained from the respective local authorities Strategy Statistical Appendix (HSSA). 7.2.2 During the period 1991 to 2001, the housing stock in Newcastle showed an increase of 5.8% and Gateshead showed an increase of 5.9%. 7.2.3 In comparative terms, Tyne & Wear experienced a dwelling stock growth of 1.5%. The North East region experienced a growth of 3.7% and England had a growth of 7.1%. Table 7‐1 Housing Stock Numbers – (1991, 2001 & 2010) 1991 2001 Change Change (%) Area 2010 HSSA Census Census 1991 – 2010 1991 – 2010 Newcastle 111,233 117,698 122,311 +11,078 +10.0 Gateshead 82,744 87,658 92,109 +9,365 +11.3
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 1991 & 2001, 2010 HSSA 7.2.4 In total, between 1991 and 2010 the dwelling stock in Newcastle has had a net increase of approximately 11,078 dwellings (+10.0%), (around 583 additional net units per annum). 7.2.5 The dwelling stock in Gateshead increased by 9,365 dwellings,11.3% in the 19 year period between 1991 and 2010, an average annual increase of +0.6% (around 493 additional net units per annum).
87 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2010
7.3 Tenure Profile 7.3.1 In order to assess the tenure profile in Newcastle and Gateshead, 2001 Census data, 2010 HSSA and 2010 survey data have been examined. It must be noted that as the data is from three different sources, it is not directly comparable. Additionally there is no breakdown within the private sector between owner occupation and private rented in the HSSA. 7.3.2 2001 Census recorded a level of owner‐occupation of 52.9% in Newcastle and 57.7% in Gateshead, both lower than the Tyne & Wear average (58.3%), the North East region (63.2%) and nationally (68.1%). 7.3.3 Both Newcastle and Gateshead had higher than average social housing stock as a proportion of the total stock (33.5% and 34.4% respectively), compared to 19.3% nationally, and the North East region (27.6%). 7.3.4 The level of private rented accommodation was 12.1% in Newcastle, higher than the benchmark areas whilst the level of private rented in Gateshead was much lower at 6.4%. Fig. 7‐1 2001 Housing Tenure (%)
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England
Living rent free 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.5 2.0 Private rented 12.1 6.4 7.4 7.2 10.0 Social Rented 33.5 34.4 32.8 27.6 19.3 Shared ownership 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 Owner Occupation (with a mortgage) 32.2 35.4 35.9 37.9 38.9 Owner Occupation (No Mortgage) 20.7 22.3 22.4 25.3 29.2
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001
88 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment 2010
Fig. 7‐2 Household Tenure Change, 1991 – 2001
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0 1991 2001 1991 2001 1991 2001 1991 2001 1991 2001
Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England
Owner occupied Social rented Private rented
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 1991 – 2001 7.3.5 Census data from 1991 and 2001 show that all benchmark areas have seen a decline in the social rented sector as a proportion of the total stock due to the impact of Right to Buy (RTB). There has also been a small decrease in the private rented sector in Gateshead compared with a small increase in this sector in Newcastle, Tyne & Wear, the North East region and England. 7.3.6 The 2010 Housing survey provides the current tenure profile in each area as shown in the table below. Table 7‐2 Current Tenure of Existing Stock (%) Newcastle % Gateshead % Owner occupier 24.9 32.2 (paying mortgage) Owner occupier 27.8 31.1 (no mortgage) Private rented / private rent in 18.1 6.8 shared house Council Rented 24.0 23.3 HA rented 4.8 5.7 Shared Ownership 0.2 0.5 Tied to employment 0.0 0.0 Living rent free 0.0 0.0 Paying rent to relative / friend 0.2 0.4 Total 100.0 100.0 Source: 2010 Housing Survey
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7.3.7 Survey data for Newcastle shows that between 2001 Census and 2010, there has been a slight decrease in owner occupation (‐0.2%) and in Gateshead an increase in owner occupation of 5.6%. 7.3.8 In Newcastle the private rented sector shows an increase of 8% between the 2001 Census and the 2010 survey data and in Gateshead there was a slight increase of 0.4%. 7.3.9 As a result of recent changes in market conditions, particularly more stringent terms for Buy to Let mortgages it is likely there will be a decreasing number of new private sector landlords. However, due to difficulty for first time buyers to secure a mortgage as well as the Governments proposed changes to social housing we may see an increase in demand for the private rented sector. With so many changes it is difficult to predict how the private rented sector will change in the next five years. 7.3.10 Table 7‐3 below outlines the social sector stock of Newcastle General Needs Housing stock (i.e. excluding supported housing, intermediate housing and accommodation for the elderly). This is broken down by size (number of bedrooms) and property type. Table 7‐3 Your Homes Newcastle Stock (General Needs) by Type & Number of Bedrooms 0‐bed 1‐bed 2‐bed 3‐bed 4+ bed Total Bedsit 161 0 0 0 0 161 Flat / Maisonette 0 4,104 7,117 857 42 12,120 Bungalow 0 1,012 242 77 0 1,331 House 0 18 3,963 10,436 693 15,110 Total 161 5,134 11,322 11,370 735 28,722 Stock % 0.6 17.8 39.4 39.6 2.6 100.0%
Source: Newcastle Local Authority Data (2010)) 7.3.11 Table 7‐4 below outlines the social sector stock of Gateshead Council General Needs Housing stock (i.e. excluding supported housing, intermediate housing and accommodation for the elderly). This is broken down by size (number of bedrooms) and property type. Table 7‐4 Gateshead Local Authority Stock (General Needs) by Type & Number of Bedrooms 0‐bed 1‐bed 2‐bed 3‐bed 4+ bed Total Bedsit 4 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 4 Flat / Maisonette 195 2,010 3,196 434 12 5,847 Bungalow 16 1,782 1,235 67 1 3,101 House ‐ 113 5,229 6,208 390 11,940 Total 215 3,905 9,660 6,709 403 20,892 Stock % 1.0 18.7 46.2 32.1 2.0 100.0%
Source: Gateshead Local Authority Data (June 2010)) 7.3.12 Gateshead has a further 361 sheltered social housing units; 192 are bedsits, 146 are 1‐bed units and the remaining 23 are 2‐bed properties.
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7.4 Type Profile 7.4.1 The current supply of housing by tenure and property types will have to be taken into account when assessing the future need for houses and affordability in the area. Fig. 7‐3 Housing Type (2001)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0% Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England
Other 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 Flat /maisonette 28.918.119.513.219.1 Terraced 27.428.129.031.725.7 Semi‐detached 35.943.542.040.232.1 Detached 7.8 10.3 9.4 14.7 22.7
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001 7.4.2 Newcastle has a high level of flat / maisonette properties at 28.9% compared to the benchmark areas. Gateshead has a high level of semi‐detached properties at 43.5%. However, there is a substantially low level of detached homes in both areas compared to the North East and England figures.
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7.4.3 The 2010 Survey data provided recent data on property type. Table 7‐5 Type of Current Accommodation Type Newcastle % Gateshead % Detached House 5.0 8.6 Semi‐Detached House 33.3 40.4 Terraced House 28.8 24.7 Bungalow 7.1 8.0 Tyneside Flat 9.7 7.3 Low rise flat / Maisonette 10.4 6.6 High rise flat / maisonette 3.7 1.5 Supported Housing 0.2 0.3 Sheltered Housing 1.8 2.6 Total 100.0 100.0 Source: 2010 Housing Survey
7.5 Size Profile 7.5.1 The Census does not record the number of bedrooms a property has, just the total number of rooms in a property. According to the 2001 Census definition, the number of rooms does not include bathrooms, toilets, halls or landings, or rooms that can only be used for storage. However, all other rooms, for example kitchens, living rooms, bedrooms, utility rooms and studies are counted. 7.5.2 Fig. 7‐4 shows that Newcastle and Gateshead have a similar size profile to the Tyne & Wear average, characterised by a higher level of smaller properties (those with 4 or less rooms) at 39.9% and 41.4% respectively compared to the level nationally of 32.6% and slightly lower levels of larger properties (those with 5 or more rooms). Fig. 7‐4 Housing Size
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0% Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England
8 or more rooms 7.2 4.8 6.1 7.5 10.6 7 rooms 7.7 6.6 7.6 8.3 9.2 6 rooms 17.9 17.8 19.4 20.7 20.5 5 rooms 27.3 29.2 28.7 29.5 27.1 4 rooms 26.5 29.3 25.9 23.7 20.0 3 rooms 10.0 9.2 9.5 8.0 9.2 2 rooms 2.8 2.4 2.2 1.7 2.5 1 room 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.9
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001
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7.5.3 The 2010 Housing Survey collected data on the number of bedrooms in properties occupied by existing households as shown in the table below. Table 7‐6 Number of Bedrooms in Current Property Bedrooms Newcastle % Gateshead % One 9.4 8.8 Two 32.6 37.0 Three 42.1 44.1 Four 10.4 8.2 Five 3.7 1.6 Six 1.1 0.1 Seven 0.2 0.1 Eight 0.1 0.0 Nine 0.4 0.1 Ten 0.0 0.0 Total 100.0 100.0
Source: 2010 Housing Survey 7.5.4 The survey data revealed that the average number of bedrooms was 2.7 bedrooms per household in Newcastle and 2.6 In Gateshead, higher than that found in other recent DCA surveys (2.9). 7.5.5 Fig. 7‐5 below shows the market and social tenure split broken down by number of bedrooms (1, 2 and 3+ bedrooms). The majority of stock in the market sector has 3+ bedrooms (66.3%). The social sector has a higher proportion of properties which have 1 or 2‐ bedrooms (62.5%). Fig. 7‐5 Newcastle Property Size by Tenure
100%
90%
80% 37.5
70% 66.3 60%
% 50%
40%
30% 62.5
20% 33.7 10%
0% Market Social
1 & 2 Bed 3+ Bed
Source: 2010 Housing Survey
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7.5.6 The data for Gateshead shows that the majority of stock in the ‘market’ sector has 3+ bedrooms (62.1%). Similar to Newcastle, the social sector has a higher proportion of properties with 1 or 2 ‐ bedrooms (65.3%). Fig. 7‐6 Gateshead Property Size by Tenure
100%
90% 34.7 80%
70% 62.1
60% 3+ Bed 50% 1 & 2 Bed 40% 65.3 30%
20% 37.9
10%
0% Market Social
7.6 Intermediate Housing 7.6.1 Intermediate housing is housing at prices or rents above those of social rented but below market prices or rents. This includes shared ownership, shared equity and sub‐market renting. Intermediate housing is developed by RSLs and developers and in most cases is marketed through the zone agent as discussed in with Nomad E5 appointed the zone agent for the North East region. 7.6.2 Although shared ownership was introduced into the market in 1980, because of the house price to income relationship in the North East region it had a very limited role in assisting new households into the market. Council records show that the number of shared ownership properties at 2010 was 704 units in Newcastle and 585 in Gateshead.
7.7 Second Homes 7.7.1 The Survey of English Housing† defines second homes as “properties, owned or rented by a household member, which are not the household's main residence. However properties which are the main residence of someone else, or which the owner intends to sell because they have moved are not counted as second homes”. 7.7.2 DCA research has revealed that the determination of an exact number of second homes either nationally or locally is difficult. Living and working arrangements in the UK are increasingly complex, for example with one member of a family perhaps working away and requiring a second home, and people living or working abroad and retaining a property in the UK.
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7.7.3 Data from Office of National Statistics shows that there is approximately 166,237 second homes registered in England, around 1% of the stock, although other counts go as high as 350,000 properties (Savills). 7.7.4 The 2001 Census recorded 245 second / holiday homes in Newcastle and 89 in Gateshead. The level of second homes in these areas is low and therefore would not have any impact on the housing market.
7.8 Property Condition and Facilities 7.8.1 As well as the number of properties in Newcastle and Gateshead, overall supply is influenced by property condition and investment in maintenance. A residential property is only fit for purpose if it addresses the requirements of those that live in it by meeting minimum quality standards. 7.8.2 It is Government policy that everyone should have the opportunity of living in a “decent home”. The Decent Homes Standard contains four broad criteria that a property should have. These are outlined below :‐
¾ A ‐ be above the legal minimum standard for housing;
¾ B ‐ be in a reasonable state of repair;
¾ C ‐ have reasonably modern facilities (such as kitchens and bathrooms) and services;
¾ D ‐ provide a reasonable degree of thermal comfort (effective insulation and efficient heating).
7.8.3 If a dwelling fails any one of these criteria it is considered to be ‘non decent’. 7.8.4 Whilst the changes under the revised definition and guidance for the decent homes standard apply, there has been a change in criterion A of the standard from April 2006. Prior to this change criterion A used the Housing Fitness Standard as the measure of whether a dwelling meets the minimum legal standard. 7.8.5 From April 2006 the new Housing Health and Safety Rating System (HHSRS) under Part 1 of the Housing Act 2004 replaced the existing statutory fitness standard and set new standards for acceptable accommodation. 7.8.6 The new system assesses “hazards” within dwellings and categorises them into Category 1 and Category 2 Hazards. Local Authorities have a duty to take action to deal with Category 1 Hazards. The HHSRS also applies to the Decent Homes Standard – if there is a Category 1 Hazard at the property it will fail Criterion A of the standard. 7.8.7 Mandatory duties to deal with Category 1 Hazards include improvement notices, prohibition orders, hazard awareness notices, emergency remedial action, emergency prohibition orders, demolition orders or slum clearance declarations. 7.8.8 Since the new HHSRS replaced the Fitness Standard, the proportion of dwellings with a Category 1 Hazard has become the figure used when assessing stock condition. 7.8.9 Gateshead has used the HHSRS as the minimum standard in the 2010 HSSA. Using this standard, 10.7% (9,899) of properties have Category 1 Hazards. 7.8.10 2001 Census data, the findings from the 2010 Housing Surveys, and the 2010 HSSA have been examined.
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7.8.11 Overall, according to the 2001 Census, 4.0% of households in Newcastle and 4.2% in Gateshead did not have central heating, lower than nationally but higher than the Tyne & Wear average and the North East Region average (see Fig. 7‐7). The level of households without sole use of a bath / shower and toilet was 0.2% in Newcastle and Gateshead Fig. 7‐7 Property Condition – Lack of Facilities
9.0 8.4
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.6
3.0
2.0
1.0 0.3 0.20.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 New castle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England
With sole use of bath/shower and toilet - Without Central Heating Without sole use of bath/shower and toilet - With Central Heating Without sole use of bath/shower and toilet - Without Central Heating
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001 7.8.12 The 2010 Housing Survey asked respondents if their current accommodation is adequate for their needs. 9.6% (11,424 implied) in Newcastle and 10.1% (8,856) in Gateshead indicated that their home was not adequate for their needs. 7.8.13 These households were asked to provide up to three reasons why their home is inadequate. They were asked to rank these reasons in order of importance with reason 1 being the most important and reason 3 being the least important. Responses were received from 11,133 implied households in Newcastle (97.4% of households indicating that their home is inadequate) and 97.7% in Gateshead. 7.8.14 Respondents made an average of 1.9 choices each in both Newcastle and Gateshead The number of responses differed to each reason. The numbers responding to each reason are listed in each table.
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7.8.15 The reasons for inadequacy in Newcastle are outlined below. Table 7‐7 Newcastle Reason For Inadequacy Reason 1 Reason 2 Reason 3 Reasons (11,133) (6,208) (3,378) Too small 50.7 9.9 5.7 Too Large 11.3 5.1 0.0 Major Disrepair 3.4 8.2 3.7 Lack of facilities 5.1 17.0 12.5 Lack of outdoor space 3.7 6.2 23.2 Car parking / garages 2.9 16.2 8.5 Tenancy insecure 0.9 0.0 0.0 Needs of disabled / 13.7 13.2 2.6 elderly member Rent / mortgage too 1.2 4.4 6.6 expensive Lack of / cost of heating 0.9 3.1 6.6 Too far from work / 0.0 3.1 15.5 family / friends Harassment / neighbour dispute / anti‐social 6.2 12.1 15.1 behaviour Threat of eviction / 0.0 1.5 0.0 repossession Total 100.0 100.0 100.0
7.8.16 The most important reason for inadequacy in Newcastle is the property being too small at over 50% of main reasons. This was followed by the needs of a disabled/ elderly household member (13.7%) and property being too large (11.3%).
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7.8.17 The table below shows the data for Gateshead. Table 7‐8 Gateshead Reason For Inadequacy Reason 1 Reason 2 Reason 3 Reasons (8,653) (4,699) (2,753) Too small 55.1 11.9 3.6 Too Large 6.4 3.8 7.1 Major Disrepair 6.1 5.2 1.6 Lack of facilities 3.8 20.5 18.6 Lack of outdoor space 6.3 10.6 14.6 Car parking / garages 2.6 14.8 6.3 Tenancy insecure 0.0 1.4 0.0 Needs of disabled / 15.5 4.8 3.2 elderly member Rent / mortgage too 1.1 4.9 11.2 expensive Lack of / cost of heating 0.0 0.0 10.5 Too far from work / 0.5 5.6 3.3 family / friends Harassment / neighbour dispute / anti‐social 1.6 16.5 18.4 behaviour Threat of eviction / 1.0 0.0 1.6 repossession Total 100.0 100.0 100.0
7.8.18 Similar to the findings for Newcastle, the most important reason for inadequacy in Gateshead is the property being too small (55.1%). 7.8.19 Respondents living in accommodation inadequate for their needs were asked how they planned to resolve their difficulties. 77.5% of households in Newcastle (8,549 implied) and 65.7% in Gateshead (5,687 implied) indicated that they need to move to more appropriate accommodation, 7.8.20 Of those needing to move, 76.9% in Newcastle (7,635 implied) and 79.6% in Gateshead (6,067 implied) said that they could not afford a buy a suitable home in an acceptable location.
7.9 Overcrowding and Under‐Occupation 7.9.1 As indicated above, the survey data revealed that property size being too small was a major reason for inadequacy in both Newcastle and Gateshead. 7.9.2 There are two measures available to assess the extent of under‐occupancy and overcrowding. These are the occupancy rating measure of overcrowding and the CLG Bedroom Standard†. 7.9.3 The 2001 Census uses the occupancy rating measure of overcrowding. Occupancy rating is a measure of under‐occupancy and overcrowding. A positive measure refers to the number of rooms in addition to the minimum requirements. A negative measure refers to the number of rooms short of the minimum and gives some indication of overcrowding.
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7.9.4 Using the CLG bedroom standard, overcrowding occurs if there are insufficient bedrooms in the property, based on the number of residents and their age / sex / marital status composition. In the case of over‐occupation, any dwelling without sufficient bedrooms to meet that requirement has been categorised as over‐occupied. In the case of under‐ occupation, any dwellings with more than one ‘spare’ bedroom above requirement has been categorised as under‐occupied. 7.9.5 Fig. 7‐8 shows that the majority of households had an occupancy rating of +1 or more, a level of 71.0% in Newcastle and 72.3% in Gateshead, slightly lower than the benchmark areas. This indicates a very slightly higher level of overcrowding compared to the wider benchmark areas. Fig. 7‐8 Occupancy Levels
60.0
49.1 50.0 45.9 41.7 39.9 39.3 40.0 33.0 31.1 31.3 30.1 30.0 25.5 21.2 21.6 21.0 18.9 20.0 18.2
10.0 7.8 7.1 6.1 6.1 5.1
0.0 New castle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England
Occupancy Rating of -1 or Less Occupancy Rating of 0
Occupanc Rating of +1 Occupancy Rating of + 2 or more
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001 7.9.6 A broad assessment of ‘under‐occupation’ and ‘over‐occupation’ was conducted using 2010 housing survey data. This was based on a detailed analysis of the family composition data. 7.9.7 The number of bedrooms required in each household was established allowing for age and gender of occupants as defined by the ‘bedroom standard’. In the case of over‐occupation any dwelling without sufficient bedrooms to meet that requirement has been categorised as over‐occupied. 7.9.8 In the case of under‐occupation, any dwelling with more than one ‘spare’ bedroom above requirement has been categorised as under‐occupied. The assessment of under / over occupation† by tenure revealed some disparity between tenure types as indicated at below.
7.10 Newcastle Under and Over‐occupation 7.10.1 The overall over‐occupation level in Newcastle is 1.2%, or 2,195 implied households, lower than the average UK level indicated by the Survey of English Housing Preliminary Report 2007 / 08 of 2.7%. 7.10.2 There is no comparable data against which to measure the overall under‐occupation figure of 35.9% in Newcastle and but it is lower than the average found in recent DCA surveys (around 40%).
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7.10.3 The table below outlines the levels of under and over‐occupation in Newcastle, by tenure. Table 7‐9 Newcastle Under and Over‐ Occupation (%) by Tenure Tenure % Under‐Occupied % Over‐Occupied Owner Occupied (With Mortgage) 45.1 1.7 Owner Occupied (No Mortgage) 58.2 0.0 Private Rented 24.4 1.9 Council Rented 15.8 4.2 HA Rented 6.5 1.6 Newcastle 35.9 1.9 Source: 2010 Housing Survey 7.10.4 Under‐occupation in the Council rented stock was 15.8% and 6.5% in the RSL stock. This represents approximately 4,850 social rented family units with two or more spare bedrooms.
7.11 Gateshead Under and Over‐occupation 7.11.1 The overall over‐occupation level in Gateshead is 2.1%, or 1,801 implied households, the same as the average UK level indicated by the Survey of English Housing Preliminary Report 2007 / 08 of 2.1%. 7.11.2 There is no comparable data against which to measure the overall under‐occupation figure of 32.7% in Gateshead and but it is lower than the average found in recent DCA surveys (around 40%). 7.11.3 The North Tyneside SHMA identified a similar level of 36.9%. 7.11.4 The table below outlines the levels of under and over‐occupation in Gateshead broken down by tenure. Table 7‐10 Gateshead Under and Over‐ Occupation (%) by Tenure Tenure % Under‐Occupied % Over‐Occupied Owner Occupied 34.8 1.9 (With Mortgage) Owner Occupied 49.6 1.1 (No Mortgage) Private Rented 19.6 4.9 Council Rented 17.0 3.3 HA Rented 13.7 0.0 Gateshead 32.7 2.1 Source: 2010 Housing Survey 7.11.5 Under‐occupation in the Council rented stock was 17.0% and 13.7% in the RSL stock. This represents approximately 4,150 social rented family units with two or more spare bedrooms. 7.11.6 There are therefore over 9,000 social rented properties under‐occupied by two or more spare bedrooms. 7.11.7 This is a significant issue for Housing Strategy to consider in both Councils, both to make best use of the housing stock and address the needs of over‐crowded families in this sector.
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7.12 Shared Housing & Communal Establishments 7.12.1 Shared housing and communal establishments are an important type of accommodation for people needing flexible housing options and / or vulnerable to homelessness as well as for students. 7.12.2 Housing partnerships are likely to have an interest in housing issues of these groups either because of their vulnerability (e.g. homeless households† or the elderly) or because of the economic impact of having such groups in the area (e.g. students), however the needs of specific household groups are discussed further in Section 9. 7.12.3 The most reliable data on communal establishments is from the 2001 Census. The 2001 Census defined a communal establishment as ‘an establishment providing managed residential accommodation’. Managed means ‘full‐time or part‐time supervision of the accommodation’. 7.12.4 In most cases (for example prisons and hospitals), communal establishments are easily identified. However, identification is less easy with sheltered accommodation. Sheltered housing is treated as a communal establishment if less than half the residents possess their own facilities for cooking. 7.12.5 In 2001, 5,337 residents in Newcastle lived in 282 communal establishments. In Gateshead 2,2,46 residents live in 125 communal establishments. The numbers of communal establishments and residents in the benchmark areas are shown in Table 7‐11. Table 7‐11 Communal Establishments No. of Communal No. of Residents in Communal Area Establishments Establishments Newcastle 232 5,337 Gateshead 125 2,246 Tyne & Wear 761 15,866 North East 1,808 39,494 England 43,972 818,466 Source: Crown Copyright © Census 2001
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7.13 Key Points ¾ As at 1st April 2010, Newcastle had a housing stock of 122,311 units and Gateshead had 92,109; ¾ The primary data obtained from the 2010 Housing Survey show a reduction in the social rented stock from the 33.5% and 34.4% levels in 2001; ¾ Newcastle and Gateshead now have 28.8% and 29% social housing stock, higher than 19.3% nationally, and 27.6% in the North East region; ¾ 2001 Census recorded that the level of private rented accommodation in Newcastle was 12.1%, higher than the benchmark areas, whilst the level in Gateshead was much lower at 6.4%; ¾ The existing stock has a high level 2 and 3 bedroom properties, flats and terraced houses in Newcastle and terraced and semi‐detached properties in Gateshead; ¾ Over 50% of households main reasons in Newcastle and 55% in Gateshead whose home is inadequate for their requirements, stated that it is too small;
¾ There are over 9,000 social rented units with two or more spare bedrooms 4,850 in Newcastle and 4,150 in Gateshead.
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8 THE ACTIVE MARKET
8.1 Introduction 8.1.1 This section provides an analysis of indicators of housing market activity to provide an understanding about changes in demand over time and to identify any pressure points within Newcastle and Gateshead. 8.1.2 Sources of data utilised are:‐ ¾ HM Land Registry; ¾ Hometrack Report ‘Can’t Supply: Cant Buy’ (2008); ¾ Communities and Local Government data; ¾ Estate Agency Survey data , 2010; ¾ 1991 and 2001 Census; ¾ 2010 HSSA; ¾ Newcastle and Gateshead Council Data.
8.2 The UK Housing Market 8.2.1 The crisis in the financial markets which began in 2007/08 has created difficulties in the economy, especially in the housing sector. It has created uncertainty in the housing market, leading to a major fall in the availability of mortgages, house sales and house prices. 8.2.2 The recent improvement in the labour market highlighted by increasing numbers of people in employment nationally in both September and October has also supported demand. 8.2.3 The prospects for the market in 2010 will depend on how the UK economy evolves and whether there is a significant increase in the supply of properties for sale.
8.3 House Prices 8.3.1 The latest data on average house prices for Newcastle and Gateshead, Tyne & Wear, the North region and England during the 2nd quarter of 2010 from the Land Registry are summarised in the chart below. Fig. 8‐1 Average House Prices by Type, Q2 2010
£350,000
£300,000
£250,000
£200,000
£150,000
£100,000
£50,000
£0 Detached Semi Detached Terraced Flat / Maisonette Overall Newcastle £315,416 £191,350 £162,160 £137,514 £178,711 Gateshead £238,854 £144,172 £121,556 £86,962 £138,718 Tyne & W ear £254,852 £149,223 £129,447 £97,768 £129,142 North £249,063 £142,709 £111,290 £113,312 £150,192 England & Wales £328,778 £199,475 £186,704 £219,033 £230,562
Source: Land Registry Residential Property Price Report, Quarter 2 2010, © Crown Copyright
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8.3.2 Fig. 8‐1 shows that the overall prices in Newcastle are generally higher than those in Gateshead, Tyne & Wear, and the North East Region. 8.3.3 Fig. 8‐2 show the extent to which house prices have changed in the last five years (Quarter 2, 2005 to Quarter 2, 2010), compared to the Tyne & Wear and regional average. 8.3.4 Overall between 2005 and 2010, house prices have decreased by‐ 3.4% in Newcastle and ‐ 6.1% in Gateshead. However prices fluctuated over the period, rising steadily to Q3 2008 before falling through to Quarter 2 2009, followed by a rise each quarter up to quarter 1 2010. Prices fell again in the most recent quarter; Q2 2010. Fig. 8‐2 Average House Prices ‐ 2005 to 2010
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2
Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North England
Source: © Crown Copyright Land Registry, 2nd Quarter 2005 to 2nd Quarter 2010 8.3.5 The trend in the absolute sales volumes recorded between Q2 2005 and Q2 2010 for is shown in Fig. 8‐3 below. These have been compared on a yearly basis using the same quarter each year. This is because sales levels can vary each quarter due to the impact of seasonal events such as summer holidays and Christmas where sales typically decline. Quarter 2 has been used for the five years between 2005 and 2010. Fig. 8‐3 Absolute Trend in Sales Q2 2005 to Q2 2010
140
Newcastle 120
100 Gateshead
80
Tyne and wear 60
40 North East
20
England 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: © Crown Copyright Land Registry, 2nd Quarter 2005 to 2nd Quarter 2010 8.3.6 The data shows that the sales levels in all Newcastle and Gateshead decreased overall between 2005 and 2010 in line with declining sales levels seen across Tyne & Wear, the North East and nationally.
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Table 8‐1 Land Registry Volume of Sales Data From October 2010 NORTH TYNESIDE Size £125k to £250k 1 or 2 4 or more Type 3 beds total beds beds Detached 50 114 110 274 Semi 176 447 112 735 Terraced 62 222 129 413 Bungalow 154 36 7 197 Flat 174 38 17 229 Total (houses) 288 783 351 1422 20% 55% 25% NEWCASTLE Size £125k to £250k 1 or 2 4 or more Type 3 beds total beds beds Detached 29 73 37 139 Semi 111 464 121 696 Terraced 27 152 76 255 Bungalow 108 37 8 153 Flat 470 103 43 616 Total 167 689 234 1090 15% 63% 21% Source: © Crown Copyright Land Registry October 2010 (supplied by Newcastle City Council) 8.3.7 Table 8‐1 above shows that in North Tyneside, within the £125,000 to £250,000 price range there are twice as many detached houses, 50% more 4‐bed houses and three times as many 4‐bed detached houses available for purchase as compared with Newcastle. 8.3.8 Clearly there is a ‘value for money’ issue driving out‐migration to North Tyneside whereby for around £175‐250k households are far more likely to be able to secure a 4‐bed detached home in a good school catchment area. There would appear to be an excessively large price premium attached to larger properties in attractive neighbourhoods in the City as a consequence of scarcity of supply.
8.4 The Mortgage Market 8.4.1 The Council of Mortgage Lenders' (CML) members are banks, building societies and other lenders who together undertake around 94% of all residential mortgage lending in the UK. They produce statistics research and public commentary on the market and the issues facing lenders. 8.4.2 The impact of the credit crunch was first felt in the UK in the mortgage lending industry with the demise of the Northern Rock in 2007. The major government support into the industry has assisted in providing stability; however there remains a major problem of a lack of funds to lend across virtually all lenders.
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8.4.3 There has been a 15% increase in gross mortgage lending in June 2010, an estimated £13.1 billion in June from £11.4 billion in May and a 7% increase from June 2009. 8.4.4 The following table show the difference in gross mortgage lending over the past 9 years. Table 8‐2 Gross Mortgage Lending Year Total £m 2001 160,123 2002 220,737 2003 277,342 2004 291,258 2005 288,280 2006 345,355 2007 362,632 2008 254,023 2009 142,639 Source: CML Research, Bank of England 8.4.5 The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) states that there are signs of house prices stabilising and more properties coming onto the market following the elimination of home information packs. This could improve liquidity in the market but transaction levels are subdued and are likely to remain so while access to credit remains constrained. 8.4.6 House purchase lending rose moderately in May 2010. The 42,000 loans were up 2% from April 2010 and 15% from May 2009. The number of re‐mortgage loans also increased in May 2010 by 6% from April 2010, but were down by 14% from May 2009. 8.4.7 The following table shows the full details of house purchase loans and re‐mortgage loans from May 2009 to May 2010. Table 8‐3 Loans for house purchase and re‐mortgage Number Value of house Value of re‐ of house Number of re‐ purchase loans mortgage purchase mortgage loans £m loans £m loans May 2010 42,000 6,000 26,000 3,200 Change from April 2010 +2% +3% +6% +10% Change from May 2009 +15% +28% ‐14% ‐14%
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8.4.8 First time buyers made up the lowest proportion of house purchase loans since September 2007 according to data released in June 2010 by the Council of Mortgage Lenders. They accounted for 35% of all house purchase mortgages, down from 39% in March and 38% in April 2009. 8.4.9 The low share in the market shows that getting a mortgage remains a problem for first time buyers who don’t have a substantial deposit. 8.4.10 The latest data on loans specifically to first‐time buyers is outlined below. Table 8‐4 Loans to first‐time buyers 2009/2010 Number Value of Average Average of loans loans loan to income £m value multiple May 2010 14,800 1,800 75% 3.14 Change from April 2010 +2% +6% 75% 3.16 Change from May 2009 +8% +20% 84% 3.04 Source: CML July 2010 8.4.11 We found no available mortgage products from high street lenders at 95% to first time buyers or existing borrowers. Lenders are offering a 90% Loan to Valuation (LTV) mortgage over a fixed term, but most have high arrangement fees in excess of £700, with some as high as £1,500. The reality is the lower the deposit, the higher the interest rate. 8.4.12 Variable rate mortgages were mostly offered at 75% LTV as a minimum. Lloyds TSB did offer a 95% LTV to first time buyers, but relatives were to act as a guarantor to the loan and had to show £20,000 in savings to qualify.
8.5 Affordability Issues 8.5.1 In 2008, Hometrack, a leading UK housing intelligence business, published the results of a study undertaken across Great Britain examining the ability of working households, both existing and newly forming, to become homeowners. 8.5.2 The study entitled ‘Can’t Supply – Can’t Buy’ conducted by Professor Steve Wilcox provides a detailed analysis of private sector market affordability in 2007. The report uses Hometrack data to analyse the affordability of local private sector rents as well as the affordability of home ownership. 8.5.3 Table 8‐5 highlights the data and house price to income ratio for the Newcastle and Gateshead, the North East region and national benchmarks. The house price data is based on 2/3 bedroom house prices which represent modest family sized dwellings and comprise the bulk of the national housing stock.
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8.5.4 The incomes are based on those younger working households aged 20 to 39 from a combination of individual incomes from the 2007 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE). Table 8‐5 House Price to Income Ratios (2007) Area 2007 Prices Income Ratio Newcastle 141,618 33,900 3.76 Gateshead 127,802 34,080 3.75 North East 122,517 33,980 3.61 England 196,636 40,949 4.80 Source: Hometrack Report ‘Cant Supply, Cant Buy (2008) 8.5.5 The house price to income ratio in Newcastle (3.76 to 1) and Gateshead (3.75 to 1) are higher than the North East Region (3.61 to 1) but lower than in England (4.80 to 1). 8.5.6 The study also relates to the ability of the intermediate housing market (IHM) to assist younger working households aged 20 to 39 to buy locally. Table 8‐6 Working Households Unable to Buy Area Narrow IHM * (%) Newcastle 21.0 Gateshead 22.2 North East 16.9 England 29.6 * The proportion of working households that could afford to pay more than RSL rent without benefit but could not afford a 2/3 bedroom dwelling. Source: Hometrack Report ‘Cant Supply Can’t Buy’ (2008) 8.5.7 The data gives a general indicator that 21.0% of working households in Newcastle and 22.2% in Gateshead cannot afford to buy a 2 / 3 bedroom dwelling, compared to 16.9% across the North East. 8.5.8 The price to income ratio is exacerbated for those working households on lower incomes as is demonstrated in Fig. 8‐4 and Table 8‐7 below. 8.5.9 This table displays the lower quartile house prices to lower quartile income ratios for Newcastle and Gateshead and the wider benchmark areas across the five year period to 2009. Fig. 8‐4 Lower Quartile House Prices to Lower Quartile Income Ratios
7.50
7.00
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England
Source: CLG, ASHE & Land Registry
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8.5.10 The data, taken from CLG, is based on lower quartile house prices (from the Land Registry) against incomes from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) on annual gross pay by place of work for all jobs over the period. Table 8‐7 Lower Quartile House Prices to Lower Quartile Income Ratios
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Newcastle 5.62 6.23 6.75 6.22 5.29 Gateshead 5.00 5.44 5.74 5.55 5.21 Tyne & Wear 5.10 5.56 5.87 5.67 5.13 North East 4.75 5.31 5.50 5.39 4.86 England 6.82 7.15 7.25 6.97 6.28 Source: CLG/Land Registry and Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings. 8.5.11 In 2009, the ratio in Newcastle was 5.29 compared with a ratio of 5.62 in 2005. In Gateshead the ratio increased from 5.00 in 2005 to 5.21 in 2009. House price to income ratios in the area are at a lower level when compared to the national level, indicating less affordability issues within the study area than in other parts of the UK. 8.5.12 Council tax bands were examined to determine whether there are concentrations of high or low valued properties within the area. Fig. 8‐5 shows the spread of council tax bands. 8.5.13 At February 2010, Newcastle and Gateshead had the highest proportion of properties in bands A and B which would be the ‘entry level’ homes for those wishing to access the owner occupied market, 73.0% and 75.6% respectively. This suggests that the cheapest market properties are readily available in the study area. Fig. 8‐5 Properties by Council Tax Band
100% H
80% G F 60% E
40% D C 20% B
0% A Newcastle Gateshead Tyne & Wear North East England Upon Tyne
Source: ONS (February 2010)
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8.6 The Estate Agents Perspective 8.6.1 Detailed qualitative data on the sales and rental market in sub‐areas across Newcastle and Gateshead were gathered by conducting telephone interviews with estate agents across Newcastle and Gateshead. The findings are detailed below: Newcastle 8.6.2 In terms of properties on the market for both sale and rent, the most readily available property type was reported to be detached properties, in particular 4‐bed detached houses. There are also a large amount of flats; however these tend to be taken quite quickly, particularly in the rented sector. 8.6.3 The rental market was reported to be very strong. Areas where properties were found to sell quite quickly were in Newcastle North ‐ particularly in Gosforth, Fawdon and Kenton. 8.6.4 The profile of people buying houses tends to be young professionals who do not currently live in Newcastle. Gateshead 8.6.5 Estate agents interviewed in Gateshead reported that most property types were readily available for sale. However, there is a shortage of period terraced properties. These are in demand and sell quickly. 8.6.6 Interest was still evident from first time buyers, but they are still finding it hard to get a mortgage. The profile of people purchasing was reported to be mixed. 8.6.7 The rental market was reported to be very strong with all property types readily available. Interest was primarily from young people.
8.7 Entry Sales Levels in Newcastle and Gateshead 8.7.1 First‐time buyers as new entrants to the housing market do not purchase houses at average prices as they will often have lower than average incomes and will have little or no deposit available to them. Neither do new entrants have the benefit of equity from an existing property. Therefore, although average prices are useful for comparisons in general they are not the purchase levels used in assessing the ability of households to enter local markets. 8.7.2 In broad terms new purchasers of either flats or terraced properties buy in the lowest quartile of prices i.e. the bottom 25%, the level recommended in Guidance. 8.7.3 Entry to the market is clearly dependent on availability, a factor particularly critical for low income households who can only enter the market in any numbers where there is an adequate supply of affordable dwellings. 8.7.4 There are high numbers of units available in both Newcastle and Gateshead within the lower quartile of sales. There are also good stock flow levels of flats and terraced properties in the lower 15th percentile and we have assessed this level in determining thresholds of access to the market in both areas. 8.7.5 Local house price data was gathered to ascertain the cost of the cheapest units available i.e. the lowest quartile stock costs for sale in each of the sub‐areas.
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8.7.6 The average of the lowest quartile prices was calculated. The entry level prices in 2010 in Newcastle are outlined in the table below. Table 8‐8 Newcastle Lower Quartile Sales Levels (£) in – September 2010 1 Bed Flat 2 Bed Flat 2 Bed Terraced 3 Bed Terraced Newcastle North 65,000 83,500 90,000 95,000 Newcastle West 90,000 88,000 76,000 90,000 Newcastle East 90,000 100,000 80,000 110,000 City‐wide 81,700 90,500 82,000 98,300 Source: Newcastle City Council House Price Survey September 2010 8.7.7 Entry sales levels vary across the area with the lowest entry prices, starting at around £65,000 in Newcastle North rising to £90,000 in Newcastle East for a 1 bed flat. The price for a 2 bed flat starts at £83,500 in Newcastle North rising to £100,000 in Newcastle East. 8.7.8 The entry sales level for terraced properties start at £76,000 in Newcastle West for a 2 bed unit and rise to £90,000 in Newcastle North. 3‐bed terraced property prices start at £90,000 in Newcastle West rising to £110,000 in Newcastle East. 8.7.9 The entry level prices in 2010 in Gateshead are outlined in the table below. Table 8‐9 Gateshead Lower Quartile Sales Levels (£) in – September 2010 1 Bed Flat 2 Bed Flat 2 Bed Terraced 3 Bed Terraced Gateshead West 59,950 89,000 74,950 99,950 Gateshead Inner West 81,950 79,950 94,950 109,950 Gateshead South 62,950 89,950 79,950 99,950 Gateshead Central 80,000 69,000 89,950 109,950 Gateshead East 64,950 74,950 79,950 102,950 Source: Gateshead Council House Price Survey September 2010 8.7.10 Entry sales levels vary across the area with the lowest entry prices, starting at around £59,950 in Gateshead West, rising to £81,950 in Gateshead Inner West for a 1 bed flat. The prices for a 2 bed flat start at £69,000 in Gateshead Central, rising to £89,950 in Gateshead South. 8.7.11 The entry sales level for terraced properties start at £74,950 in Gateshead West for a 2 bed unit and rise to £94,950 in Gateshead Inner West. 3 bed terraced property prices start at £99,950 in Gateshead West and Gateshead South and rise to £109,950 in Gateshead Inner West and Gateshead Central.
8.8 Purchase Income Thresholds 8.8.1 This section assesses the position in 2010 and the income levels required to enter the local market in both areas. Although there is a reasonable supply of properties within the lowest 15th percentile stock, the income thresholds have been set using the lowest quartile stock, as recommended in Guidance. 8.8.2 The average price of these units was assessed to enable threshold income levels to be calculated. These are based on 95% mortgage availability and a 3.5x gross income lending ratio for single earner households and 2.9x gross household income for dual income households, the levels recommended in the 2007 Strategic Housing Market Assessments – Practice Guidance (page 42). In practice however, lending ratios are now around 3 times a single income with very few loans available with over 90% loan to valuation levels.
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8.8.3 Lending practice is to apply a multiplier of 3.5 times a single income and a lower level of 2.9 times a dual or joint income to allow for the potential loss of the second income which may result in financial difficulty for the household. 8.8.4 The tables below outline the single income thresholds needed to enter the market in each of the three sub‐ areas within Newcastle. Table 8‐10 Newcastle Purchase Single Income Thresholds 2010 Income Thresholds (£) Area 1 bed Flat 2 bed Flat 2 bed Terraced 3 bed Terraced Newcastle North 16,200 20,400 24,400 21,700 Newcastle West 17,900 19,000 19,000 21,700 Newcastle East 17,600 21,700 20,400 24,400 Please note figures are rounded to nearest hundred. Source: Newcastle City Council Estate Agent On‐line survey, September 2010 Table 8‐11 Gateshead Purchase Single Income Thresholds 2010 Income Thresholds (£) Area 1 bed Flat 2 bed Flat 2 bed Terraced 3‐bed Terraced Gateshead West 16,000 21,200 17,600 24,300 Gateshead Inner 20,300 18,900 24,400 27,100 West Gateshead South 13,435 20,300 19,000 23,000 Gateshead Central 17,600 16,800 23,000 27,100 Gateshead East 16,300 20,100 19,000 24,400 Please note figures are rounded to nearest hundred. Source: Gateshead Council Estate Agent On‐line survey, September 2010 8.8.5 On average a deposit of around £20,000 would be required to buy in the lowest quartile of local markets. The data from the 2010 survey shows that only 7.8% of new forming households have savings of more than £15,000 for a deposit in Gateshead and 17% in Newcastle. 8.8.6 At least 92% in Gateshead and 83% in Newcastle will not be able to buy on the basis of savings, a more important factor in affordability than incomes in the local market. 8.8.7 The ability of concealed households to buy is clearly limited by the availability of mortgage funding and current lending policies.
8.9 Intermediate Housing Costs 8.9.1 Almost all new Intermediate housing units are bought by new forming households with incomes inadequate to buy outright. The 2010 survey data found that 126 new forming household expressed preference for intermediate housing in Newcastle No households in Gateshead expected this tenure. As house prices have reduced its important to assess whether households could gain access to the housing they require with minimum levels of subsidy compared to that to social rent. 8.9.2 This is also important in relation to the provision of a more balanced housing market. We have therefore analysed the cost of provision of intermediate housing in the area and assessed the proportion of households who may be able to be assisted by new provision of this type. The following table utilises data from the Zone Agents website. Nomad E5 has been appointed to the role of HomeBuy Agent for the North East region.
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8.9.3 HomeBuy Direct can help low income groups to purchase a new property usually on a designated development. Through HomeBuy Direct an equity loan of 30% is offered towards the value of the home and is usually funded by the developer and part funded by the Government. 8.9.4 Buyers will still need to take out a mortgage for the remaining 70% and they will still own 100% of the title to their home. There is nothing to pay on the equity loan for the first 5 years but after that, there will be a 1.75% fee per annum.
8.10 Social Renting Costs 8.10.1 The Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research (CCHPR), Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge maintains a range of housing markets databases with data at district, regional and national level. The centre has clients, which include the Tenant Services Authority, housing associations, and local and central government. The centre produces data from the ‘The Guide to Local Rents, Part I, II and III ‘, comprehensive data on the pattern in the social housing sector in England. 8.10.2 Part I reports rents charged by housing associations (RSLs), rents charged by local authorities and rents in the private rented sector. 8.10.3 Table 8‐12 below provides details of gross RSL weekly rents by bed size in 2009 (the latest data available). Table 8‐12 Average Weekly RSL Rents, 2009 by bed size Bedsit 1‐bed 2‐bed 3‐bed 4 bed All Newcastle 59.85 63.50 64.47 68.98 72.65 65.58 Gateshead 52.69 57.69 62.73 69.41 77.51 63.53 Tyne & Wear 58.64 60.52 64.55 69.92 74.60 65.08 North East 58.59 58.54 62.33 65.87 70.70 63.11 England 64.45 68.49 75.27 79.53 92.64 75.91
Source: Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research, www.dataspring.org.uk. , Guide to local Rents Part 1, 2009 8.10.4 Table 8‐13 below provides details of gross Council weekly rents in 2009 Table 8‐13 Average Weekly LA Rents, 2009 by bed size Bedsit 1‐bed 2‐bed 3‐bed 4 bed All Newcastle 44.41 48.52 53.98 62.11 68.32 61.77 Gateshead 45.86 51.47 56.22 60.73 64.13 56.66 Tyne & Wear 44.73 49.34 55.01 61.06 65.47 58.06 North East 44.30 49.01 54.85 60.58 64.91 56.95 England 55.48 59.03 66.56 73.22 87.59 66.86
Source: Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research, www.dataspring.org.uk. , Guide to local Rents Part 1, 2009
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8.11 Private Sector Rental Costs 8.11.1 Table 8‐14 below highlights the average private weekly rents for each of the benchmark areas in 2008 (the most up to date data available) by property size. 8.11.2 This is based on properties occupied by those in receipt of housing benefit and shows the rent payable had benefit not applied. These private market rent levels were significantly higher than social rents, with an average rent of £99.07 in Newcastle and £ 86.52 in Gateshead. Table 8‐14 Average Private Weekly Rents (£) 2008 Bedsit 1‐bed 2‐bed 3‐bed 4 bed All Newcastle 75.20 83.81 92.21 103.88 151.11 99.07 Gateshead 66.26 77.00 85.17 90.62 103.22 86.52 Tyne & Wear 72.22 79.60 89.17 98.79 128.07 92.50 North East 74.14 76.77 87.70 95.37 106.82 90.25 England 89.20 113.63 129.75 137.03 150.82 125.90 Source: Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research, www.dataspring.org.uk. , Guide to local Rents Part 1, 2008 8.11.3 An internet survey of the main estate / letting agents was carried out to gather data on the entry rent levels in Newcastle and Gateshead. 8.11.4 The overall average and entry rent levels for Newcastle are outlined below. Entry level rents are those in the lowest quartile (i.e. the cheapest 25%).
Table 8‐15 Newcastle Average and Entry Rent Levels, September 2010 (£ p/m) Property Type Newcastle North Newcastle West Newcastle East City Wide Entry Average Entry Average Entry Average Entry Average 1‐Bed Flat 400 450 450 550 400 575 415 525 2‐Bed Flat 495 525 450 525 550 595 500 548 2‐Bed Terraced 475 595 450 500 630* 725* 520 606 3‐Bed Terraced 650 750 500 560 650 750 600 686 2‐Bed Semi‐detached 495 500 500 525 495 500 500 508 3‐Bed Semi‐detached 650 750 550 700 650 750 615 733 Source: Newcastle City Council Rental Survey October 2010 * Low levels of data
Table 8‐16 Gateshead Average and Entry Rent Levels, September 2010 (£ p/m) Gateshead Inner Property Type Gateshead West Gateshead South West Average Entry Average Entry Average Entry 1‐Bed Flat 350 325 500 495 425 395 2‐Bed Flat 495 385 495 425 550 475 2‐Bed Terraced 450 395 495 485 495 450 3‐Bed Terraced 485 475 550 525 600 425 2‐Bed Semi‐detached 495* 495* 575 495 ‐nd‐ ‐nd‐ 3‐Bed Semi‐detached 595 475 675 550 595 500 Source: Newcastle City Council Rental Survey October 2010 * Low levels of data, nd – no data
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Gateshead Property Type Gateshead East Borough‐wide Central Average Entry Average Entry Average Entry 1‐Bed Flat 550 450 420 325 450 400 2‐Bed Flat 470 425 450* 450* 490 430 2‐Bed Terraced 450 345 ‐nd‐ ‐nd‐ 470 420 3‐Bed Terraced 695 600 650* 650* 595 535 2‐Bed Semi‐detached ‐nd‐ ‐nd‐ ‐nd‐ ‐nd‐ 535 495 3‐Bed Semi‐detached ‐nd‐ ‐nd‐ ‐nd‐ ‐nd‐ 620 510 Source: Newcastle City Council Rental Survey October 2010 * Low levels of data, nd – no data 8.11.5 Entry rental costs in the private rented sector vary by location within the Borough. 8.11.6 The private rented sector costs are £325 per month in Gateshead West and Gateshead East and rising to £495 in Gateshead Inner West for the smallest unit of 1‐bed flat. 8.11.7 Entry level rents for a 2‐bed flat range from £385 in Gateshead West to £475 in Gateshead South. 8.11.8 In the case of 2‐bed terraced houses, the lowest rent level was £345 per month in Gateshead Central, rising to £485 in Gateshead Inner West. 8.11.9 3‐bed terraced properties range from £425 per month in Gateshead South rising to £600 per month in Gateshead Central.
8.12 Rental Income Thresholds 8.12.1 The entry‐level rental prices of the smallest units were assessed in order to calculate the rental income threshold levels. These are based on rent at 25% of gross income, the level recommended in the SHMA Guidance. 8.12.2 The table below outlines the income ranges needed to enter the rental market in each of the three sub‐areas areas in Newcastle.
Table 8‐17 Newcastle Rental Income Thresholds – September 2010 Income Thresholds (£) Sub Area 1 bed Flat 2 bed Flat 2 bed Terrace Newcastle North 19,200 23,760 22,800 Newcastle West 21,600 21,600 21,600 Newcastle East 19,200 26,400 30,240* City‐Wide 19,920 24,000 24,960
Source: Newcastle City Council Rental Survey September, 2010 * Low Level of Data – nd‐ No Data 8.12.3 The cheapest properties in the area are 1‐bed flats in Newcastle North and Newcastle East and require an income threshold of £19,200.
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8.12.4 The table below outlines the income ranges needed to enter the rental market in each of the five sub‐areas areas in Gateshead.
Table 8‐18 Gateshead Rental Income Thresholds – September 2010 Income Thresholds (£) Sub Area 1 bed Flat 2 bed Flat 2 bed Terrace Gateshead West 16,800 23,760 21,600 Gateshead Inner West 24,000 23,760 23,760 Gateshead South 20,400 26,400 23,760 Gateshead Central 26,400 22,560 21,600 Gateshead East 20,620 21,600 ‐nd‐ Borough‐wide 21,550 23,600 22,650 Source: Gateshead Council Rental Survey September, 2010 * Low Level of Data – nd‐ No Data 8.12.5 The cheapest properties in the area are 1‐bed flats in Gateshead West which require an income threshold of £16,800, but all other areas require incomes from £20,400 to £24,000. 8.12.6 Often not the actual rent levels that prevent people accessing private rented accommodation as these may be covered by housing benefit. 8.12.7 The need to provide a bond or one months rent in advance to the landlord is often the stumbling block to accessing this tenure. A Rent Deposit Scheme would be of value as one element to improve the use of the private sector. 8.12.8 There is also a problem for local authority leasing schemes because of the change in payment of the rent to the tenant through benefit rather than directly to the landlord. Some landlords are now not prepared to let because of past experience or perception of difficulty with rent payment. 8.12.9 This sector has increased in importance in the housing market and should be examined in greater detail to maximise the role it should play in meeting need and demand across a wide range of income groups and types of household in the market.
8.13 Vacancies, Turnover Rates and Available Supply by Tenure 8.13.1 Vacant dwellings provide an important indication of how efficiently the housing stock is used within an area. It reflects the extent of any potential spare capacity in the housing market. 8.13.2 The following table shows that the level of vacant homes across Newcastle and Gateshead has decreased overall between 2001 and 2009/10.
Table 8‐19 Vacant Dwelling Stock 1991‐2010 Census * HSSA 2001 2007 / 08 2008 / 09 2009 / 10 Newcastle 6,207 4,450 5,072 4,678 Gateshead 3,303 3,720 2,581 2,911
Source: Crown Copyright © Census 1991 & 2001 and 2007‐2010 HSSA
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8.13.3 At April 2010, the proportion of vacant dwellings was 3.8%, in Newcastle and 3.2% in Gateshead. The 2010 HSSA recorded that in Newcastle none of the vacant stock had been vacant for more than six months and in Gateshead 89% of the vacant stock had been vacant for more than six months.
8.14 Turnover Rates 8.14.1 It is important to consider not just the supply of social housing but also turnover or flow. These can help to calculate the number of homes becoming vacant each year.
Table 8‐20 Newcastle Right to Buy & Demolition 2007 / 08 2008 / 09 2009 / 10 Average Right to Buy 240 50 44 111 Demolition 396 529 317 414 Total 636 579 361 525 Source:‐Council Records 8.14.2 The average loss of units through Right to Buy is 111 units and demolition is 414 units totalling 525 units per annum. RTB levels have reduced significantly over the period since and demolition has decreased after an increase in 2008/09. 8.14.3 There are projected to be a further 700 demolitions/disposal of council stock over the coming years in the following areas:‐ ¾ Cruddus Park (6 high rise blocks – 5 demolitions, 1 private sale) – 500 ¾ West Denton – 108 ¾ Heart of Walker – 78 ¾ Fawdon – 72 ¾ Newbiggin Hall – 27 ¾ Kenton – 20 Table 8‐21 Gateshead Right to Buy & Demolition (3 years) 2007 / 08 2008 / 09 2009 / 10 Average Right to Buy 139 27 13 60 Demolition 101 102 5 70 Total 240 129 18 129 Source: Gateshead Council Data 8.14.4 In Gateshead, 179 council units have been lost through Right to Buy, an average annual loss of stock of 60 units. A further 208 council units have been lost through demolition, an annual number of 70. 8.14.5 There are projected to be a further 1,457 demolitions of council stock by 2015. 121 are sheltered housing units. The remainder of demolitions will occur in the following areas:‐ ¾ Brandling ‐ 47 ¾ Chandless ‐ 566 ¾ Ravensworth Road – 302 ¾ Clasper Village – 279 ¾ Kibblesworth – 94 ¾ Westminster Street – 8
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9 THE HOUSING REQUIREMENTS OF SPECIFIC GROUPS
9.1 Introduction 9.1.1 The Housing Act (2004) specified that specific consideration must be given to the differing needs of households. In addition, the SHMA Practice Guidance indicates that housing market partnerships should consider gathering information about the housing requirements of specific groups and that doing so will improve planning and housing policy. 9.1.2 This chapter investigates the needs of specific household groups that may have specific housing requirements which differ from the general population. Certain groups may exert influences within the housing market area which need to be understood and planned for. 9.1.3 The housing requirements of the following household groups have been analysed: ¾ Households with support needs; ¾ Older people; ¾ Black Minority Ethnic Households; ¾ Young Households; ¾ Gypsy and Traveller Households; ¾ Students. 9.1.4 The data on the needs of households with support needs, older people and Black Minority Ethnic (BME) households was gained from using primary data from the Housing Survey. 9.1.5 The data on the needs of Gypsy and Traveller Households was obtained from the Tyne & Wear Gypsy and Traveller Accommodation Assessment completed in 2009. Data on the needs of student households was obtained from University and FE College web sites.
9.2 Households with Support Needs 9.2.1 Housing may need to be purpose built or adapted for households with specific support needs. Information about the characteristics of these households will inform the Council’s Supporting People Strategy. 9.2.2 Types of disability / limiting long‐term illness identified within the survey included: ¾ Wheelchair user; ¾ Walking difficulty; ¾ Learning disability / mental health problem; ¾ Drug / alcohol abuse; ¾ Visual / hearing impairment; ¾ Asthmatic / respiratory problem; ¾ Other physical disability; ¾ Limiting long‐term illness. 9.2.3 Assessment of the UK average for the proportion of households affected is difficult both because of the impact of multiple disability and the tendency to express statistics in terms of population rather than households.
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9.2.4 Survey data revealed that the number of households containing at least one household member with a disability or limiting long term illness was 36,002 (30.3% of households) within Newcastle and 31.7% (27,867 households) in Gateshead. 9.2.5 The Department for Work and Pensions Family Resources Survey 2006 suggests there are as many as 10 million disabled people in the UK ‐ around 19.7% of the population. DCA survey results have consistently indicated an average level in the North East region of 20%, but higher in areas which formerly had heavy industries as found in Newcastle and Gateshead. 9.2.6 The highest incidence of disability / long term illness was walking difficulty. This consisted of 58.7% (21,142 of households with one or more households with a disability / long term illness in Newcastle and 59.7% (16,624 implied) in Gateshead). 9.2.7 Data was collected on the facilities / services that the home already has and what improvements need to be provided to ensure that current household members can remain in the property. The first table shows the data collected in Gateshead. Table 9‐1 Types of Facilities / Services Needed (Gateshead) Question B15 Already have Needed Adaptations % households Nos. implied % households Nos. implied Wheelchair 6.8 2,130 2.0 272 accessibility Improved access to 6.0 1,866 7.9 1,064 property lift / stair lift 7.6 2,375 8.7 1,161 Bathroom adaptations 24.4 7,634 21.8 2,921 Extension 1.8 549 3.0 399 Ground floor toilet / 13.3 4,143 15.1 2,029 shower Handrails / grab‐rails 25.6 8,004 16.9 2,264 Support (home carer, 6.2 1,931 0.7 88 meals on wheels) Help maintaining home / 5.6 1,749 13.3 1,778 garden Other 2.7 859 10.6 1,413 Total 100.0 31,240 100 13,389 Source: Gateshead Council 2010 Housing Needs Survey 9.2.8 The main facility needed for disabled residents in Gateshead who responded to the question was bathroom adaptations at 21.8% followed by handrails / grab‐rails at 16.9%. 9.2.9 A higher number of residents (31,240) said that they already had the facilities / services that they needed compared with those who said that they had a need to make improvements to their property (13,389).
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9.2.10 The next table shows the results for the data collected in Newcastle. Table 9‐2 Types of Facilities / Services Needed (Newcastle) Question B15 Already have Needed Adaptations % households Nos. implied % households Nos. implied Wheelchair accessibility 5.0 1,673 3.5 391 Improved access to 3.9 1,300 9.5 1,063 property Lift / stair lift 9.7 3,238 11.6 1,300 Bathroom adaptations 27.0 9,016 20.5 2,290 Extension 0.7 232 0.0 0 Ground floor toilet / 18.6 6,204 16.8 1,880 shower Handrails / 22.9 7,661 16.3 1,817 grab‐rails Support (home carer, 4.5 1,499 5.3 591 meals on wheels) Help maintaining home 5.1 1,703 10.3 1,149 / garden Other 2.6 878 6.2 695 Total 100.0 33,404 100.0 11,176 Source: Newcastle City Council 2010 Housing Needs Survey 9.2.11 The main facility / service needed in according to the data collected in the Newcastle Survey is bathroom adaptations at 20.5% followed by ground floor toilet / shower at 16.8%, 9.2.12 As in the Gateshead survey more residents stated that they already had the facilities / services that they needed (33,404) compared with those who said that they had a need to make improvements to their property (11,176). 9.2.13 84.4% (7,882 implied) of households in Gateshead and 83.9% in Newcastle (8,238 implied) stated that they could not afford to make the required improvements. 9.2.14 Generally in DCA experience, people prefer to stay in their own home and with appropriate support and adaptations, older people or physically disabled people may not need to move at all. If people are given the full information about choices and receive the help required, the level of people requiring supported accommodation is likely to reduce. 9.2.15 Of the existing households planning a move within the next 3 years, 126 implied households in Newcastle (weighted response) expect supported housing. No households in Gateshead expressed any interest in supported housing. This is based on a small sample and should be treated with caution.
9.3 The Housing Needs of Older People 9.3.1 Similar to the needs of households who have support needs, housing may need to be purpose built or adapted for households with elderly residents. 9.3.2 The housing and support needs of older people in Newcastle and Gateshead are addressed through housing, health, and social service strategies.
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9.3.3 ONS population projections predict an increase in the 65+ population in Newcastle of 16,000 people between 2008 and 2033, an increase of 39.0% over the forecast period and a rise of 13,400 (+39.8%) in Gateshead. 9.3.4 The increase in older householders will have implications for support services, extra care housing, the long term suitability of accommodation, equity release schemes, adaptations, and other age ‐ related care requirements. 9.3.5 This section looks at the housing and household circumstances of older people living in Newcastle and Gateshead. The tables below relate to the findings for each household where the head of household is aged 60+ representing around 43,980 implied households in Newcastle and 38,593 in Gateshead. Table 9‐3 Tenure of Accommodation Occupied by Older People (%) Tenure Newcastle % Gateshead % Owner Occupied (with Mortgage) 7.5 12.2 Owner Occupied (No Mortgage) 56.6 52.9 Private Rented 5.8 1.9 Private rented in shared house 0.0 0.2 Council Rented 23.3 22.6 HA Rented 6.4 9.8 Shared Ownership 0.4 0.4 Tied to Employment 0.0 0.0 Living rent free 0.0 0.0 Total 100.0 100.0 Source: 2010 Housing Survey 9.3.6 The main tenure type occupied by older households was owner occupied (no mortgage) as would be expected amongst the older population. Table 9‐4 Type of General Stock Occupied by Older People (%) Type Newcastle % Gateshead % Detached House 6.2 5.9 Semi‐detached House 34.6 39.4 Terraced House 18.6 20.0 Bungalow 14.0 15.0 Tyneside Flat 8.3 5.4 Low rise Flat / Maisonette 9.9 6.1 High rise Flat / Maisonette 3.5 1.8 Supported Housing 0.4 0.4 Sheltered Housing 4.5 6.0 Total 100.0 100.0 Source: 2010 Housing Survey No data for Caravan / Mobile Home 9.3.7 The main property type occupied by older households in both areas was semi‐detached accommodation. This was also the case amongst the general population. 14.0% of older households in Newcastle and 15.0% in Gateshead lived in bungalow accommodation, higher than the all type average of 7.1% in Newcastle and 8.0% in Gateshead.
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9.3.8 Nationally it is acknowledged that older people on fixed incomes may have difficulty maintaining their homes, especially as these are often older pre‐1919 terraced properties with higher maintenance needs. 9.3.9 This may be an issue in Newcastle and Gateshead due to the properties occupied by older people and also the high number of owner occupied (no mortgage) properties. Support with maintenance and repair through a Home Improvement agency or “Staying Put” initiative will be of importance in view of the growing older population. Table 9‐5 Size of Accommodation Currently Occupied by Older People Size Newcastle % Gateshead % 1‐bedroom 14.3 14.5 2‐bedrooms 34.2 38.6 3‐bedrooms 41.4 39.0 4+ Bedrooms 10.1 7.9 Total 100.0 100.0 Source: 2010 Housing Survey 9.3.10 The largest proportion of older households live in 3‐bedroom properties, a level of 41.4% in Newcastle and 39.0% in Gateshead. The Future Needs of Older People 9.3.11 Existing households aged 60+ and planning a move within the existing City / Borough in which they live within the next 3 years were asked a series of questions about their future housing requirements. Around 2,669 implied households in Newcastle and 1,452 in Gateshead were identified. Table 9‐6 Type of Accommodation Required by Older People
Newcastle Gateshead Gateshead Accommodation Expected Newcastle % Nos. % Nos.
Detached House 4.7 126 0.0 0 Semi‐detached House 8.3 222 5.9 85 Terraced House 0.0 0 14.8 216 Bungalow 51.0 1,360 56.9 826 Tyneside Flat 8.7 232 3.4 49 Low rise flat / maisonette 15.3 409 14.0 203 High Rise flat / maisonette 3.3 88 0.0 0 Sheltered Housing 8.7 232 5.0 73 Total 100.0 2,669 100.0 1452
Source: 2010 Housing Survey 9.3.12 As would be expected amongst an older age group with increasing mobility issues, the majority require bungalow accommodation. There was no stated demand for supported housing.
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Table 9‐7 Tenure of accommodation required by moving households aged 60+ Newcastle Gateshead Accommodation Newcastle % Gateshead% Required Nos. Nos.
Owner Occupied 28.1 751 35.4 485 (No Mortgage) Owner Occupied 0.0 0 8.8 120 (with Mortgage) Private Rented 10.7 285 3.6 49 HA Rented 5.1 137 5.3 73 Council Rented 56.1 1,496 46.9 642 Total 100.0 2,669 100.0 1,369 Source: 2010 Housing Survey 9.3.13 The highest demand was for Council rented accommodation. 9.3.14 We also ran a cross‐tabulation of the above data to show the preference of Type by Tenure for those households aged 60 and over. The results can be seen in the Tables below. Table 9‐8 Type by Tenure for Households aged 60+ (Newcastle) Owner Owner Accommodation Private Council Occupied Occupied HA Rented Total Preferred Rented Rented (No Mortgage) (with Mortgage)
Detached House 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Semi‐detached 57.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.0 100.0 House Terraced House 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Bungalow 32.6 0.0 5.6 7.2 54.7 100.0 Tyneside Flat 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Low rise flat / 0.0 0.0 28.4 0.0 71.6 100.0 maisonette High Rise flat / 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 maisonette Sheltered Housing 0.0 0.0 0.0 59.0 41.0 100.0
9.3.15 All those aged over 60 and who preferred to live in Terraced, Tyneside Flats and Detached accommodation also preferred owner occupation. Of those who preferred to live in a bungalow, 54.7% would prefer to rent from the Council. All those aged over 60 who preferred to live in a high rise flat / maisonette preferred to rent from the Council.
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Table 9‐9 Type by Tenure for Households aged 60+ (Gateshead) Owner Owner Accommodation Occupied Private Council Occupied HA Rented Total Preferred Rented Rented (No Mortgage) (with Mortgage)
Detached House 54.7 45.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Semi‐detached 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 House Terraced House 62.9 37.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 Bungalow 18.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.1 100.0 Low rise flat / 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 maisonette Sheltered Housing 54.0 0.0 0.0 46.0 0.0 100.0
9.3.16 54.7% of those aged over 60 who preferred a detached property also preferred to owner occupy. 81.1% of those aged over 60 who preferred to live in a bungalow also preferred to rent from the Council. 9.3.17 The size requirements of existing households who were planning a move revealed that the main requirement was for 2‐bed accommodation at 81.1%, in Newcastle and 65.9% in Gateshead.
Table 9‐10 Size of Housing Required by Existing Households aged 60+ (%) Newcastle Accommodation Newcastle % Gateshead% Gateshead Nos. Required Nos.
1‐Bed 10.6 282 22.3 324 2‐Bed 81.1 2,165 65.9 957 3‐Bed 8.3 222 11.7 170
Source: 2010 Housing Survey 9.3.18 232 implied households in Newcastle and 73 implied households in Gateshead expressed an expectation for sheltered housing. 9.3.19 The data revealed that all 232 households in Newcastle expected sheltered housing in the affordable sector, 137 expected to rent from a Housing Association and 95 expected to rent from the Council. 9.3.20 In Gateshead, all 73 implied households expecting sheltered housing expected to rent from a housing association. 9.3.21 Sheltered housing stock is primarily one and two bedroom units and the future size requirements are incorporated within the social stock waiting list and re‐let† supply analysis in Section 10.2. 9.3.22 More detailed analysis is required of this sector in view of the acceptability of some of the existing stock and the changing requirements of current and future older people. This analysis is more complex than simple quantitative stock supply and demand and will be addressed within the current Older Persons Housing Strategy.
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9.4 Black Minority Ethnic Households 9.4.1 Households from particular ethnic groups can differ in terms of their housing or accommodation requirements, particularly in relation to property size. This is however an issue which is common to areas with a larger minority ethnic populations living in large concentrations of terraced housing. 9.4.2 Data collected from the housing study enables DCA to identify the ethnic origin of each household. The breakdown provided in Table 9‐11 below refers to the ethnicity of the household in which the respondent lives. This provides percentage breakdowns of all ethnic groups who responded to the ethnicity question.
Table 9‐11 Ethnic Origin Ethnicity Newcastle % Gateshead % British 88.2 96.8 Irish 0.5 0.3 White White European 1.2 0.7 Other White 0.7 0.2 White & Black Caribbean 0.0 0.0 White & Black African 0.3 0.1 Mixed White & Asian 0.3 0.2 Other Dual Heritage 0.0 0.0 Indian 2.0 0.4 Asian or Asian Pakistani 1.9 0.1 British Bangladeshi 0.7 0.0 Other Asian background 0.9 0.4 Caribbean 0.0 0.0 Black or Black African 1.3 0.4 British Other Black background 0.0 0.0 Chinese Chinese 1.6 0.3 Any Other Any Other 0.4 0.1 Total 100.0 100.0
Source: 2010 Housing Survey 9.4.3 The data shows the proportion of households whose ethnic origin is white British is 88.2% in Newcastle and a much higher level of 96.8% in Gateshead. 9.4.4 The BME responders include categories of ‘White Irish’ and ‘White Other’ (in line with the Census definition). 9.4.5 Legislation and Guidance requires local authorities to adopt a strategic approach to delivering housing services to meet the differing needs of local communities. 9.4.6 67% of those BME households, who said their home was inadequate, cited that their accommodation was too small compared to 69% of all households.
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9.4.7 In general however, the BME population have similar incomes and new housing requirements which should be met through initiatives to address the needs of the whole population.
9.5 Gypsy and Traveller & Travelling Show People Households 9.5.1 Every local housing authority is required under Section 225 of the Housing Act 2004 to assess the accommodation needs of Gypsies and Travellers residing in their area. 9.5.2 Newcastle and Gateshead Councils, in partnership with other local authorities in Tyne & Wear were part of a sub‐regional Gypsy and Traveller and Travelling Showpeople Accommodation Needs Assessment, completed in February 2009. 9.5.3 The aim of this assessment was to inform the future Gypsy and Traveller accommodation strategies and planning policy. It will enable Councils to plan for future Gypsy and Traveller accommodation pitch requirements, whilst making sure that Gypsy and Traveller communities are not excluded from society. 9.5.4 The assessment revealed that there are currently 14 authorised residential pitches in Gateshead and none in Newcastle. 9.5.5 The Tyne & Wear Assessment indicated a need for 8 additional new pitches in Newcastle and 13 in Gateshead in the ten year period between 2008 ‐2018.
9.6 Students 9.6.1 The main Higher education (post 18) institutions which impact on the Newcastle and Gateshead area are Newcastle University and Northumbria University. 9.6.2 Newcastle has two Universities in the City centre. There are around 50,000 students at the two universities (around 38,500 full‐time). 9.6.3 The most popular areas for students are to the east and north east of the City centre: Jesmond (particularly for those attending Newcastle University) and Heaton (Northumbria). There has been a substantial increase in student numbers since the early 2000s and a growing demand for modern purpose‐built accommodation. ¾ 612 units (2,655 bedspaces) completed since 2004. ¾ 5 schemes providing 863 units (2,088 bedspaces) currently on‐site:‐ Percy Street Brewery Winns Products New Bridge Street Quay Point ¾ Further 3,000+ bedspaces with permission but not all likely to be implemented.
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Newcastle University 9.6.4 Data from Newcastle University press office for the academic year 2009/10 reported that the University has around 19,500 students. The University is also one of the largest employers in the North East, employing around 5,000 people. 9.6.5 Newcastle University provides around 4,300 rooms. A large proportion of the University's student population live in the private sector. Northumbria University 9.6.6 Northumbria University has over 30,000 students. Most student properties are within two miles of the universities City campus. The most popular areas requested by students are Jesmond and Sandyford in the North of the City. This area commands the highest average weekly rent at around £73.00 per week. The lowest rates are in the South (Gateshead). 9.6.7 In terms of university owned student accommodation, the university has:‐ ¾ 1,520 rooms in flats with private bathrooms, built between 2002‐2008; ¾ 1,040 rooms with shared bathrooms in flats and houses, built or refurbished in the 1990s; ¾ 470 halls of residence, built during the 1960’s – 1970s. Student Housing Need 9.6.8 The number of students who require student accommodation in Newcastle is high and impacts greatly on housing demand in the private rented sector. 9.6.9 Although students require low cost housing they do not represent households eligible under planning definition for ‘Affordable Housing’. They are not included in the Guidance Needs Assessment Model. 9.6.10 The Universities are major employers, make a very significant contribution to the local economy and are critical to future economic growth strategies. 9.6.11 The need for student halls of residence with excellent connections to public transport should be considered as part of the wider planning strategies. 9.6.12 Newcastle City Council are issuing an Article 4 Direction to restrict changes of use to Class C4 (Houses in Multiple Occupation) in areas of high student numbers.
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10 THE FUTURE HOUSING MARKET
10.1 Introduction 10.1.1 This section provides an understanding of the scale of future housing demand in Newcastle and Gateshead. 10.1.2 The key aims of this section are to build upon the understanding of the current housing situation and consider how the current drivers of housing markets shape future changes in housing demand.
10.2 Future Size of Affordable Housing 10.2.1 Local Development Documents need to provide targets on the size of future affordable housing units required. Stock balance, turnover and waiting list demand analysis are vital to identify the gaps in the stock and the properties by type and size required to address future need. 10.2.2 Affordable housing should be in locations with extremely good public transport accessibility to town centres, employment destinations and other key services. 10.2.3 The following tables provide a detailed analysis of the social stock by bedroom size and the levels of registered need and actual supply from turnover. (The data for Newcastle includes transfers). 10.2.4 A number of different ratios have been calculated to attempt to provide a clear justification for the balance of property sizes in the Local Development Documents. 10.2.5 The ratio of waiting list demand to supply is the number of years it would take for the waiting list for individual property sizes to be met through the turnover of the existing stock. This also makes the extreme assumption that there was no future need other than the current backlog, which clearly will not be the case.
10.3 Newcastle Table 10‐1 Newcastle Social Stock, Waiting List Need and Social Turnover
Social Stock Turnover Demand Stock Size Waiting List (HSSA) * vs. ** Supply Nos. % Nos. % % 1‐bedroom 6,275 58.5 1,087 35.2 5.77 2‐bedrooms 2,965 27.7 1,243 40.2 2.39 3‐bedrooms 1,130 10.5 719 23.3 1.57 4+ bedrooms 353 3.3 41 1.3 8.6 Total 10,723 100.0 3,090 100.0 3.47
** ‐ Local Authority HSSA Return ‐ 2010 ** ‐ Newcastle Council Data
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10.3.1 In Newcastle, even if no new need arose, it would take:‐ ¾ Almost 6 years to meet the requirements for 1‐bed properties; ¾ Over 2 years to address the 2‐bedroom requirement; ¾ Over 1 year to address the 3‐bedroom stock requirement; ¾ Over 8 years to meet the need for larger 4+ bedroom family units. 10.3.2 Generally, 75% of stock turnover is from 1 and 2 bedroom units, lower than the waiting list need of 86.2% for these units. Although these are significantly the highest need in terms of unit numbers, a number of factors need to be considered in determining targets by size which clearly also influence property type. 10.3.3 Small units turn over significantly more regularly in the existing stock than family units. The waiting list, in particular for one bedroom properties, contains a large number of households who have very low priority or are older households registering for sheltered housing as insurance for a future potential need. 10.3.4 These factors are important in judging future delivery to meet priorities rather than arithmetic scale of recorded need. The most important factor is to meet priority needs and there is still a requirement for one bedroom units to meet the needs of young, single, homeless households in the City. 10.3.5 There is a relatively large stock of 3 bedroom family units providing almost a quarter of all re‐ let supply. Four bedroom unit needs are the smallest in terms of numbers, but they are the most difficult to resolve due to extremely low turnover levels with only 41 units a year becoming available. 10.3.6 In view of the current stock balance, the scale of likely annual new provision and the requirement to address priority household need, a level of 60% of future delivery in the affordable sector should be one and two bedroom units, lower than current needs level of 86%. 10.3.7 However, because of the demand for 2‐bed units (as opposed to need), the mix should be for 20% 1‐bed and 40% 2‐bed. 10.3.8 To address the requirements for families who are over crowded in the social sector and particularly those who have high levels of priority, it is recommended that 40% of future supply is for 3 and 4 bed houses, 20% 3 bedrooms and 20% 4 bedrooms.
10.4 Gateshead Table 10‐2 Gateshead Social Stock, Waiting List Need and Social Turnover Demand vs. Stock Size Waiting List * Social Stock Turnover ** Supply 1‐bedroom 3,865 59.7 707 36.0 5.5 2‐bedrooms 1,880 29.0 908 46.2 2.1 3‐bedrooms 622 9.6 336 17.1 1.9 4+ bedrooms 112 1.7 15 0.7 7.5 Total 6,479 100.0 1,966 100.0 3.30
* Gateshead Current Active applications at 29 March 2010 ** ‐ 2009/10 Core Data (New Lettings Summary Statistics)
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10.4.1 In Gateshead, even if no new need arose, it would take:‐ ¾ Around 5 and a half years to meet the 1‐bed requirement ; ¾ Just over 2 years to address the 2‐bedroom requirement; ¾ Almost 2 years to address the 3‐bedroom stock requirement; ¾ 7 and a half years to meet the need for 4+ bedroom family units. 10.4.2 Generally, 82.2% of stock turnover is from 1 and 2 bedroom units, lower than the waiting list need of 88.7% for these units. Although these are significantly the highest need in terms of unit numbers, a number of factors need to be considered in determining targets by size which clearly also influence property type. 10.4.3 Small units turn over significantly more regularly in the existing stock than family units. The waiting list, in particular for one bedroom properties, contains a large number of households who have very low priority or are older households registering for sheltered housing as insurance for a future potential need. 10.4.4 There is a relatively moderate stock of 3 bedroom family units providing around one fifth of all re‐let supply. Four bedroom unit needs are the smallest in terms of numbers, but they are the most difficult to resolve due to extremely low turnover levels with only 15 units a year becoming available. 10.4.5 Future delivery in the social sector could be 60% one and two bedroom units, lower than current need levels of 88%. However, because of the demand for 2‐bed units (as opposed to need), the mix should be for 20% 1‐bed and 40% 2‐bed. 10.4.6 To address the requirements for families, it is recommended that 40% of future supply is for 3 and 4 bed houses, 20% 3 bedrooms and 20% 4 bedrooms.
Intermediate Housing 10.4.7 Within affordable supply there is a need for further intermediate stock, primarily to assist young households who previously would have been first time buyers. The major requirement of stock provided in this sector is therefore 1 and 2 bedroom properties, delivered usually in flatted developments. 10.4.8 Flats have recently been developed driven by high land values, the push for higher density, the low cost and ready availability of finance and a strong buy to let market. Most of these factors no longer exist due to the recession land values are lower, the government has removed the minimum density level and it is increasingly difficult to obtain finance for a buy to let mortgage. These circumstance may now favour the return of the 2 bedroom starter house due to the very high falls in apartment values and the nervousness of lenders. 10.4.9 The 2010 survey found that new forming household preference is very strongly for two bedrooms overall. However of the shared ownership demand in Newcastle from 196 existing and 126 new forming households of 322 units, 107 a year all required 2‐bedrooms. 10.4.10 In Gateshead however there was no demand expressed from new forming households but 86 existing households, 28 a year also require 2 bedroom units. 10.4.11 At the other end of the household scale there is a potentially significant demand for shared equity for older people both in sheltered and extra care housing who need to “trade up” from lower value housing into specialist accommodation or release some equity from a large home.
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10.4.12 The future delivery targets to address the needs of single / couple and small family households and larger families are detailed below. Table 10‐3 Future Affordable Sector Delivery by Size Bedroom Size (%)
1 & 2‐Bedrooms 3 & 4 Bedrooms Social Rent 60 40 Intermediate 100 0
Making Best Use of the Stock 10.4.13 The Housing Survey data estimated that there around 9,000 three bedroom and four bedroom social rented properties which are under‐occupied by two or more bedrooms. Tackling under‐occupation of family houses to make best use of the existing stock would make a positive contribution to meeting family housing need through better re‐let supply. 10.4.14 Although it is recognised that in practice this is difficult to achieve, addressing the under‐ occupation within the existing 3 and 4 bedroom social stock should be a strategic housing priority.
10.5 Current and Future Demand for Market Housing 10.5.1 PPS3 identifies the core government objectives to provide a variety of high quality market housing including addressing any shortfalls that apply in market housing. 10.5.2 Authorities are required to plan for a full range of market housing to meet the needs of the whole community, so that provision is made for family, single person, and multi‐person households. 10.5.3 Local Development Documents will therefore need to provide indications of the type or size of dwellings to be provided to meet household demand. Authorities should provide an indication of the relative priority for particular property size requirements which should be delivered in future developments to provide for a more balanced housing market. 10.5.4 Survey data showed that households forming and moving had a strong desire to be near their family, near work and where they have always lived. It would be beneficial to attempt to influence future delivery to address local demand and fill gaps in stock types to provide a better balance in the housing stock, create more sustainable communities and undertake sustainable development. 10.5.5 This will require the housing to be located and designed so as to facilitate the use of more sustainable modes of transport.
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10.5.6 The following tables identifies the annual net shortfall of market properties in Newcastle and Gateshead after allowing for the flow of the existing stock, to meet the level of demand from both local existing and concealed households intending to move within the next 3 years. The data for in‐ migrating households is based on demand at the levels of those who previously in‐migrated and supply from those intending to out‐migrate over a 3 year period. The data has been annualised for each group. Table 10‐4 Newcastle Annual Market Housing Supply / Demand by Size Bed‐sit / 1‐bed 2‐bed 3‐bed 4+ bed All Sizes Households Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand
Existing 277 1,354 1,452 525 3,608
Concealed 126 210 42 33 411
In‐migration 215 756 703 515 2,189
Total Demand 618 2,320 2,197 1,073 6,208
Moving within 133 1,768 945 762 3,608
Out‐migration 65 424 432 478 1,399
Total Supply 198 2,192 1,377 1,240 5,007
Shortfall 420 128 820 (167) 1,201
% Shortfall 30.7% 9.4% 59.9%
Source: 2010 Housing Survey 10.5.7 The data indicates that there is a shortfall of 1, 2 and 3 bed property sizes in Newcastle and a potential surplus of 4+ bed properties. 10.5.8 There is a net demand over supply from migration of 790 households, a significant proportion of the net overall shortfall of 1,201 units from turnover. 10.5.9 Planning Guidance requires the delivery of balanced and sustainable developments and there is likely to be more demand in the long term due to the growth in single person and couple households through relationship breakdown and improved life expectancy. Preference is for 2‐bedrooms rather than one, although 75% of the existing market stock is two and three bedroom units. 10.5.10 The data supports the view that there is a gap in the provision of middle market properties in the City. There is also a need for more detached properties and four bedroom units, particularly to improve the stock offer to support economic growth strategies and retain families.
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Table 10‐5 Gateshead Annual Market Housing Supply / Demand by Size Bed‐sit / 1‐bed 2‐bed 3‐bed 4+ bed All Sizes Households Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand Existing 0 727 892 244 1,863 Concealed 11 228 83 28 350 In‐migration 40 410 527 98 1,075 Total Demand 51 1,365 1,502 370 3,288 Moving within 44 851 708 260 1,863 Out‐migration 0 300 310 58 668 Total Supply 44 1,151 1,018 318 2,531 Net Shortfall 7 214 484 52 757 % Shortfall 0.9% 28.3% 63.9% 6.9% Source: 2010 Housing Survey 10.5.11 There is a net demand over supply from migration of 407 households, a high proportion of the net overall shortfall of 757 units from turnover. 10.5.12 The data indicates that there is a shortfall of all property sizes in Gateshead. There is very low demand for one bedroom units, a common finding nationally with preference from single and couple households mainly for two bedrooms. Almost 85% of the existing market stock is two and three bedroom units. 10.5.13 Although there is a high level of demand for 3 bedroom properties especially from in‐migrants, almost 44% of the existing stock is semi‐detached. New better quality detached and semi‐detached properties are needed to improve the range and quality of the housing offer. 10.5.14 Recommendations on guidelines for future development proportions for the Newcastle/ Gateshead area are provide in Section 13.10.
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10.6 Overall Level of Demand 10.6.1 It is an accepted norm that 90% of all housing requirements should be met by the turnover of the existing stock. Housing survey data suggests that there will be a total market shortfall of 1,201 units per annum in Newcastle and 757 In Gateshead after allowing for market housing turnover. 10.6.2 This is particularly significant bearing in mind that total completions average 810 units per annum in Newcastle and 388 in Gateshead between 2004 and 2010 to cover both market and affordable housing. 10.6.3 The alternative method of projecting housing shortfall is to utilise the forecasts of the number of additional households expected to be formed. There has to be a caveat on the calculation of the shortfall. Housing survey data is a guide to individual household plans and intentions. This may not be able to be realised whilst the individual authority allocations are to be regarded as minima and should therefore be exceeded, delivering more units into the market. 10.6.4 Equally the household forecasts are also potentially likely to vary from those currently drafted and all of these factors will therefore need to be monitored. 10.6.5 PPS3 requires that there is proper annual monitoring of delivery, both in scale and by type and size and it is important that this is conducted for both sectors. Individual developments will vary between urban and rural locations and in size. This will clearly create variance in the type and size of properties able to be delivered and any variance from the broad recommendations for market housing should bias towards smaller units. 10.6.6 It is important to bear in mind that the longer term impact of reductions in household size through demographic change will create a need for a better balance than is provided in the current stock.
10.7 Housing Completions 10.7.1 Table 10‐6 below shows the number of net housing completions in Newcastle and Gateshead from 2004/05 to 2009/10. 10.7.2 The average annual completion rate has been 810 dwellings in Newcastle and 388 dwellings in Gateshead. Table 10‐6 Housing Completions (Net) 2004/05 ‐2009/10 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / 2008/ 2009/ Annual
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Average *Newcastle 893 1,159 847 869 709 385 810 **Gateshead 765 164 453 563 215 173 388
Source: * Data supplied by Newcastle City Council ** Data supplied by Gateshead Council (Housing Flows on Reconciliation)
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11 HOUSING NEED
11.1 Introduction 11.1.1 The aim of this section is to assist in estimating the number of current and future households in housing need, to provide an analysis of the available stock and establish the requirements of existing affordable housing tenants for different sizes of properties. 11.1.2 As set out in PPS3, housing need is defined as ‘the quantity of housing required for households who are unable to access suitable housing without financial assistance’. For the purpose of this assessment, the number of households who do not have their own housing or live in unsuitable housing and who cannot afford to meet their housing needs in the market have been assessed. 11.1.3 The types of housing that should be considered unsuitable are listed in the table below. Table 11‐1 Unsuitable Housing Homeless households Homeless households or Households with tenure under notice, real threat of notice or lease insecure tenure coming to an end, housing that is too expensive for households in receipt of housing benefit or in arrears due to expense Overcrowded according to the ‘national bedroom standard’ Too difficult to maintain (e.g. too large) even with equity release Mismatch of Couples, people with children and single adults over 25 sharing a housing need and kitchen, bathroom or WC with another household dwellings Households containing people with mobility impairment or other specific needs living in unsuitable dwelling (e.g. accessed via steps), which cannot be made suitable in‐situ Lacks a bathroom, kitchen or inside WC and household does not have Dwelling the resources to make fit (e.g. through equity release or grants) amenities & condition Subject to major disrepair or unfitness and household does not have the resources to make fit (e.g. through equity release or grants) Harassment from others living in the vicinity which cannot be Social Needs resolved except through a move
Source: page 41 CLG Strategic Housing Market Assessments Practice Guidance
11.2 Homelessness 11.2.1 The CLG Homelessness Strategy entitled ‘Sustainable Communities: settled homes; changing lives’ aims to expand housing opportunities and reduce homelessness by offering a range of preventative measures and increasing access to settled homes, halving the number living in temporary accommodation in the UK by 2010. 11.2.2 The strategy aims to achieve this by preventing homelessness, providing support for vulnerable people, tackling the wider causes and symptoms of homelessness; helping more people move away from sleeping rough and providing more settled homes. To deliver this strategy, a series of targets have been devised including an increase in the supply of new social housing by 50%, to make better use of existing social and private rented stock and an increase in Government funding to tackle homelessness.
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11.2.3 The implementation of this strategy has led to local authorities taking a more proactive role in dealing with homelessness and potential homelessness. This has resulted in a reduction in levels of statutory homelessness in the Borough. 11.2.4 Local authorities have made progress in terms of preventing homelessness and reducing the number of homeless acceptances and the number in temporary accommodation, in line with Government policy. However it should be noted that the strategy may not necessarily have reduced the numbers of households at risk of homelessness or in housing need. Therefore there is a need to ensure that the reduction in official homelessness is not presented as leading to an eradication of housing need. 11.2.5 This is measured in the P1 (e) returns titled ‘Local Authority activity under homelessness provisions of the 1996 Housing Act’ produced by local authorities on a quarterly basis. These returns, completed quarterly by authorities are the primary source of data analysis on statutory homeless households. 11.2.6 The P1(e) returns for the last four quarters were supplied by Newcastle and Gateshead Councils. These consisted of Q3 2009 to Q2 2010. 11.2.7 In Newcastle, the P1 (e) returns for the year Q3 2009 to Q2 2010 shows the total recorded number of households in the area and accepted for re‐housing as homeless and in priority need was 216. 11.2.8 During the year 2008/09, the majority of households required smaller accommodation to accommodate one person households and lone parent households with dependent children. 11.2.9 At 30th June 2010, the P1e records show that Newcastle had 41 households in temporary accommodation arranged by the local authority, 33 of which were accommodated in Newcastle Council stock. 11.2.10 In Gateshead, the P1 (e) returns for the year Q3 2009 to Q2 2010 shows the total recorded number of households in the area and accepted for re‐housing as homeless and in priority need was 359. 11.2.11 During the year 2008/09, the majority of households required smaller accommodation to accommodate one person households and lone parent households with dependent children. 11.2.12 At 30th June 2010, the P1e records show that Gateshead had 9 households in temporary accommodation arranged by the local authority, 8 of which were in Gateshead Council stock.
11.3 Housing Register 11.3.1 At 1st April 2010, there were 10,723 households in Newcastle and 8,412 in Gateshead on the housing register. There should be at least an annual and normally a six monthly review of applicants on the register. 11.3.2 The available data on the total number of households on the housing register by size of property required (number of bedrooms) found that need is the highest for one bed accommodation.
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11.3.3 However as current lettings policy only allows for single households and couples to be allocated 1‐bed accommodation then this masks the preference for 2‐bed accommodation. Table 11‐2 Number of Households on the Register by Size Required
Size of Property Required Newcastle Gateshead
1 bedroom 6,275 1,983 2 bedrooms 2,965 851 3 bedrooms 1,130 376 4+ bedrooms 353 100 Unspecified size 0 5,102 Total 10,723 8,412
Source: 2010 HSSA 11.3.4 The assessment of the scale of affordable housing need includes only those households judged by the Council to be in priority need who registered in the last year. Choice Based Lettings (CBL) schemes† are a new way of allocating social housing, with the aim of providing applicants with a greater choice regarding their home. The schemes allow people to apply for advertised social housing vacancies, often through the local press or an interactive web site. Applicants can see the full range of available homes and apply for the homes to which they are matched. 11.3.5 The successful applicant is the person with the highest priority for the property which they have expressed an interest for. The Government has set a deadline for all authorities to introduce CBL by 2010. 11.3.6 Your Choice Homes is the name of the choice‐based lettings scheme introduced by Newcastle City Council. This is a partnership between Your Homes Newcastle, Newcastle City Council and Housing Associations who have homes to rent in Newcastle. 11.3.7 HomeChoice is the Choice‐based letting scheme in Gateshead. The scheme is a partnership between Gateshead Council and The Gateshead Housing Company.
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12 CLG NEEDS ASSESSMENT MODEL STRUCTURE
12.1 Introduction 12.1.1 SHMA Practice Guidance indicates that housing partnerships should estimate the number of households who lack their own housing or live in unsuitable housing and who cannot afford to meet their needs in the market. 12.1.2 This element of the assessment is essential to identify the total scale of need of those not able to access the market, the provision from existing stock turnover and the net need which requires to be addressed from future new provision. It provides essential evidence for affordable housing targets in Local Development documents. 12.2 The CLG Needs Assessment Model Structure 12.2.1 There are three‘ Stages’ in the needs assessment model, combined into three distinct sections assessing current and future housing need and supply. STAGE 1 CURRENT HOUSING NEED 1.1 Homeless households and those in temporary accommodation Plus 1.2 Overcrowded (households who failed the CLG ‘bedroom standard’) and concealed households (those over 25 who share facilities with another household) Plus 1.3 Other groups 1.4 Equals ‐ Total Current Housing Need ↓ STAGE 2 FUTURE HOUSING NEED (GROSS) 2.1 New household formation (gross per year) Times 2.2 Proportion of new households unable to rent in the market Plus 2.3 Existing households falling into need 2.4 Equals ‐ Total Newly Arising Need ↓ STAGE 3 AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY 3.1 Affordable dwellings occupied by households in need Plus 3.2 Surplus stock Plus 3.3 Committed supply of new affordable housing Minus 3.4 Units to be taken out of management 3.5 Equals ‐ Total Affordable Housing Stock Available 3.6 Annual supply of social re‐lets (net) Plus 3.7 Annual supply of intermediate affordable housing available for re‐let or re‐sale at sub‐market levels. 3.8 Equals ‐ Annual Supply of Affordable Housing
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12.2.2 The Housing Needs Assessment Model is based on the 2007 Strategic Housing Market Assessment Practice Guidance, and is assessed across the combined Newcastle/Gateshead area. 12.2.3 The model is structured on a ‘flows’ basis, taking account of recent experience over the previous three years and examining projections over the next two years. 12.2.4 It has to be assumed that this ‘annualised’ data will occur each year to 2015. The primary data has a five year ‘life’ and will of course be gathered again before 2015. Major changes in house prices and incomes could cause significant variation in the overall situation. This Model data should be up‐dated annually, normally in June/July when all the fiscal year data is finalised. 12.2.5 In this section the assessment of affordable housing need has been conducted using both primary data from the 2010 Housing Surveys and secondary data from CORE, HSSA and the records of each local authority.
12.3 NewcastleGateshead Needs Assessment Model 12.3.1 The first element of this Stage of the model estimates the number of homeless households including those in temporary accommodation. 12.3.2 The data available from the P1(E) returns for the year to June 2010 showed that there were 575 households who were accepted as homeless across the area. A total of 575 is therefore the figure applied at Stage 1.1 in the model. 12.3.3 The second element in Stage 1 of the model estimates the number of households in over‐ crowded conditions (i.e. those who fail the ‘bedroom standard’), and concealed households (couples, people with children and single adults aged over 25 who share facilities with another household). Table 12‐1 Overcrowded and Concealed Households Overcrowded Households 3,996 MINUS New Forming Solution or Leaving the City 9 PLUS Concealed Households 0 MINUS Duplication 0 Net Overcrowded + Concealed Group 3,987 3,987 Proportion unable to afford market housing 70.2% Stage 1.2 Overcrowding and concealed households 2,800
12.3.4 There are 3,996 households who are overcrowded by the ‘bedroom standard’. However 9 of these will be resolved by a newly forming household or by these households leaving NewcastleGateshead, leaving a net group of 3,987. There are no concealed households in the overcrowded group, creating a total of 3,987 overcrowded and concealed households. 12.3.5 A test of affordability for these households shows that around 70% of them cannot afford to resolve their housing difficulties through market housing and 2,800 households have been applied in the model at Stage 1.2. 12.3.6 The third element in Stage 1 of the model examines households living in unsuitable accommodation whose problem cannot be solved ‘in‐situ’ and who therefore require to move home in order to resolve their difficulty.
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12.3.7 The SHMA Practice Guidance identifies that households who are overcrowded, were suffering harassment, those whose rent / mortgage was too expensive, housing was affecting their health, whose tenancy was insecure or whose home was too large are all assessed to need to move home. 12.3.8 The survey data identified 10,544 households with one or more of these inadequacies, of whom 473 were already counted in Stage 1.2 and need to be removed to avoid double‐ counting. 12.3.9 This leaves a net group of 10,071 households, around 77.8% of whom are unable to afford to resolve their housing difficulties through market housing in the area, leaving 7,839 households to be applied in the model at Stage 1.3. 12.3.10 The final element of Stage 1 of the model is a sum of steps 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 above, a total of 11,214 applied at Stage 1.4. Table 12‐2 Current Housing Need (Gross) STAGE 1 – CURRENT HOUSING NEED (GROSS) 1.1 Homeless households and those in temporary accommodation 575 1.2 Overcrowding and concealed households 2,800 1.3 Other groups 7,839 1.4 TOTAL CURRENT HOUSING NEED (GROSS) 11,214 1.1 + 1.2 + 1.3
12.4 Stage 2 – Future Need (Gross per year) 12.4.1 The first element of Stage 2 of the model estimates the annual number of newly forming households in Gateshead and Newcastle. 2,743 household members were identified who expected to form their own households within the next 1‐2 years and expected their accommodation to be within the area. 12.4.2 The 2,743 concealed households identified in the survey and forming within 1‐2 years is annualised at the average level over the two year period of 1,371 households. Table 12‐3 Time of Move – Concealed Households Time of Move Nos. implied Annual Average
Within 1 year 1,897 1,371 1 ‐ 2 years 846
12.4.3 This results in an annual average formation level of 1,371 households per annum, used at Stage 2.1 of the model. 12.4.4 Using the income of households who recently formed their first home over the last two years 68% can buy in the lower quartile stock and access the private market for one, two and in some cases three bedroom units suitable for their requirements. However only 12.5% have savings of £20,000 needed to purchase and on this basis 87.5% cannot buy in the area. 12.4.5 Based on rental costs 69.5% of recently formed households are considered to be unable to afford private rent. The rental proportion is therefore used at Stage 2.2 of the model.
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12.4.6 The final element of Stage 2 of the model estimates the number of households in Newcastle Gateshead who fall into priority housing need. Households in priority need are those whose circumstances need to be addressed quickly and usually these households are homeless, in high medical need, suffering harassment, living in accommodation which is unfit or in high levels of disrepair or have insecure tenancies. 12.4.7 The calculation of existing households falling into priority need used both Councils Housing Register data over a year to April 2010 and found that of new registrations on the waiting list, there were 1,847 households in the priority need categories only applied at Stage 2.3 of the model. 12.4.8 The final element of Stage 2 of the model is a sum of step 2.1 multiplied by step 2.2, added to step 2.3 above, giving a total of 2,800 applied at Stage 2.4. Table 12‐4 Future Need (Gross per Year) STAGE 2 – FUTURE NEED (GROSS PER YEAR)
2.1 New household formation (gross per year) 1,371
2.2 Proportion of new households unable to buy(87.5%) or rent 69.5% (69.5%)in the market
2.3 Existing households falling into need 1,847
2.4 TOTAL ANNUAL NEWLY ARISING NEED 2,800 (2.1 x 2.2) + 2.3 (1,371 x 69.5% = 953 + 1,847 = 2,800)
12.5 Stage 3 – Affordable Housing Supply 12.5.1 The first element of Stage 3 of the model determines the number of households analysed in Stages 1.2 and 1.3 who currently occupy social rented or shared ownership dwellings. It is assumed that any move by these households would release a unit of affordable housing, and it is therefore assumed that there would be no overall net effect on the annual flow model. 12.5.2 The survey data shows that 6,282 of the households at Stages 1.2 and 1.3 of the model currently live in affordable units, and this total is applied at Stage 3.1. 12.5.3 The second element of Stage 3 of the model assesses the level of surplus affordable stock. The level of vacant affordable units in Newcastle is low at less than 1% of stock in Newcastle and 1.5% in Gateshead. Guidance states that where the level is below 3% there is no surplus vacant stock. A total of zero is therefore applied at Stage 3.2 of the model. 12.5.4 The third element of Stage 3 assesses HSSA returns for the three years to 31/03/2010 to show recent new unit trends to forecast the number of new affordable units to be built on an annual basis. Table 12‐5 New Affordable Housing Supply (HSSA) 2008 to 2010 Supply 2007 / 08 2008 / 09 2009/10 Average %
New Social Rent 105 87 141 111 65 Shared Ownership 32 48 0 27 16 Other New Supply 0 8 91 33 19 Total 137 143 232 171 100.0
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12.5.5 The average annual new supply total is 171 units per annum, but with some significant variance in 2009 / 10 compared to the previous two years. There is rarely a consistent level of new delivery and it is normal practice to take account of the average annual level. 12.5.6 The impact of the recession could be expected to reduce new affordable delivery through planning obligations. As an example only 141 units were built in Newcastle in 2009/10 whereas 186 units had been planned and it is recommended that delivery of 170 units, around the previous average annual level is used at Stage 3.3. 12.5.7 The next element of the model estimates the number of units to be taken out of management in the NewcastleGateshead area through stock demolition and Right to Buy on an annual basis. 12.5.8 The table below shows the Right to Buy and demolition levels from Council data for the three years to 31/03/2010. Table 12‐6 2007 to 2010 Right to Buy & Demolition 2007 / 08 2008 / 09 2009 / 10 Average
Right to Buy 379 77 57 171
Demolition 405 439 181 342
12.5.9 The average loss of units through Right to Buy is 171 units per annum and demolition is 342 units totalling 513 units. RTB levels have reduced significantly over the period since and demolition has decreased after an increase in 2008/09. 12.5.10 If the average stock re‐let rate of 6.7% per annum is applied to the Right to Buy average figure of 171 units this would equal the loss of only 11 units future re‐lets a year. 12.5.11 However, there is a planned programme of demolition, of 1,341 units over the next four years across the area. The majority of this stock is in Gateshead and has much higher average re‐let turnover of 19.2%. The immediate future removal of this stock will reduce current re‐lets by 263 units a year and is the most relevant data to use. The total loss from demolition and Right to buy of 274 units is to be applied at Stage 3.4 of the model. 12.5.12 Stage 3.5 of the model is the sum of Stages 3.1 (6,282), 3.2 (0) and 3.3 (170), less Stage 3.4 (276), a net total of 6,176 units. 12.5.13 The average annual re‐let supply of affordable units over the last three years is used in the model as a prediction for the future annual affordable housing supply from re‐lets which is likely to arise. 12.5.14 It is important firstly to establish the average stock re‐let level (i.e. excluding transfers and new unit delivery). Data from both CORE data and HSSA returns for the three years to 31/03/2010 have been studied to identify net re‐lets, which shows the following:‐ Table 12‐7 Council Social Rent Re‐let Supply (HSSA 2008 to 2010) Council 2007 / 08 2008 /09 2009/10 Average Re‐lets
HSSA Return 4,386 3,576 3,422 3,803
12.5.15 The overall average re‐let figure for the three year period to 2009 / 10 is 3,803 units per annum. However the trend of continuously falling levels of re‐lets is more likely to apply in future years and it would be prudent to use the last year figure of 3,422 as the most likely future level, especially in view of the planned demolition programme.
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12.5.16 Re‐lets have reduced year on year and significantly from a total of over 4,500 in Newcastle in 2005/06 to 1,643 in 2009/10. The overall area forecast level after demolitions will be around 3,150 in 2014/15. Table 12‐8 RSL Rent Re‐let Supply (HSSA & CORE 2008 to 2010) RSL Re‐lets 2007 / 08 2008 / 09 2009/10 Average
CORE Data 391 415 238 348
© CORE & HSSA. 12.5.17 The 2009/10 CORE RSL net re‐let data, 238 units per annum, has been used and added to the 3,422 Council re‐lets to make a total of 3,660 a year applied at Stage 3.7. 12.5.18 The 2001 Census data recorded a figure of 900 shared ownership units in the NewcastleGateshead area. However the Council checked the current stock level with RSL’s in 2010 and the stock was found to now total 1,289 units. Actual re‐sale data shows a low turnover of 2.7% and on this basis, only 35 units would become available each year and this number is incorporated at Stage 3.7. 12.5.19 The final element of Stage 3 of the model is a sum of Stages 3.6 and 3.7, a total of 3,805 applied at Stage 3.8. Table 12‐9 Affordable Housing Supply STAGE 3 – AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY 3.1 Affordable dwellings occupied by households in need 6,282 3.2 Surplus stock 0 3.3 Committed supply of new affordable housing 170 3.4 less Units to be taken out of management 276 3.5 TOTAL AFFORDABLE HOUSING STOCK AVAILABLE 6,176 3.1 + 3.2 + 3.3 – 3.4 3.6 Annual supply of social re‐lets (net) 3,660 3.7 Annual supply of intermediate affordable housing available for 35 re‐let or resale at sub market levels 3.8 ANNUAL SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING 3,695 3.6 + 3.7
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12.6 Combined Affordable Housing Needs Model STAGE 1 – CURRENT HOUSING NEED (GROSS) 1.1 Homeless households and those in temporary accommodation 575 1.2 Overcrowding and concealed households 2,800 1.3 Other groups 7,839 1.4 TOTAL CURRENT HOUSING NEED (GROSS) 11,214 1.1 + 1.2 + 1.3 STAGE 2 – FUTURE NEED (GROSS PER YEAR) 2.1 New household formation (gross per year) 1,371 2.2 Proportion of new households unable to buy (87.5%) or rent (69.5%) in 69.5% the market 2.3 Existing households falling into need 1,847 `2.4 TOTAL ANNUAL NEWLY ARISING NEED 2,800 (2.1 x 2.2) + 2.3 (1,371 x 69.5% = 953 + 1,847 = 2,800) STAGE 3 – AFFORDABLE HOUSING SUPPLY 3.1 Affordable dwellings occupied by households in need 6,282 3.2 Surplus stock 0 3.3 Committed supply of new affordable housing 170 3.4 less Units to be taken out of management 274 3.5 TOTAL AFFORDABLE HOUSING STOCK AVAILABLE 6,174 3.1 + 3.2 + 3.3 – 3.4 3.6 Annual supply of social re‐lets (net) 3,660 3.7 Annual supply of intermediate affordable housing available for re‐let or 35 resale at sub‐market levels 3.8 ANNUAL SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING 3,695 3.6 + 3.7
A TOTAL NET CURRENT NEED 5,038 1.4 – 3.5 (11,214 – 6,176 = 5,038) B QUOTA TO ADDRESS NEED OVER 5 YEARS 15% C ANNUAL CURRENT NEED (A x B) 758 D TOTAL ANNUAL NEWLY ARISING NEED (2.4) 2,800 E TOTAL AFFORDABLE NEED PER YEAR (C + D) 3,558 F ANNUAL SUPPLY OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING (3.8) 3,695 OVERALL ANNUAL SHORTFALL (E – F) 137
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12.7 Affordable Needs Assessment 12.7.1 Elimination of the backlog over a five year period is recommended in the SHMA Guidance for model purposes and is used here. 12.7.2 The total affordable housing need annually is for 3,558 units. 12.7.3 Net re‐lets of the existing social stock are the major means of addressing the scale of need identified. 12.7.4 After allowing for this level of existing social stock net re‐let supply of 3,660 units and 35 estimated shared ownership re‐sales, there will be an annual affordable housing shortfall of only 137 units. 12.7.5 However, in arriving at this net position, the Model already incorporates the projected future delivery of 170 additional new units a year and the total net annual need, before new delivery, is 307 units each year across the combined area. 12.7.6 The table below outlines the calculation. Table 12‐10 Annual Affordable Need and Supply
Total Net Current Need 5,038 Backlog rate 15% 758 Newly arising Need 2,800 Annual Affordable Need 3,558 Less Social Stock re‐lets 3,660 Share ownership re‐sales 35 3,695 Net annual need 137 Plus Assumed new units of supply 170 Total Need after existing stock turnover 307
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13 PLANNING AND DELIVERY
13.1 Land and Affordable Housing Delivery 13.1.1 Land supply is crucial to the provision of housing. Land available free or at a discount is often the key to making a social housing scheme viable, particularly given the limited funding available. Therefore, local authority housing and planning strategies need to ascertain the availability of sites and propose ways of bringing sites forward. 13.1.2 The inter‐relationship of the land and subsidy issues is important in the negotiation process. It is clear from the scale of affordable need identified in the survey that the Council will need to negotiate with private landowners and developers to be able to deliver the scale of housing required. There is also the possibility that some of the need may be met through other HCA and Council funded interventions. 13.1.3 The survey data provides identified need levels in each sub‐area, and the Councils must apply their own judgement as to the suitability of sites for affordable housing for low income families and new forming households unable to enter the private market, particularly related to the nature of existing affordable supply in the area, provision of services and other planning policy requirements.
13.2 Affordable Housing 13.2.1 The PPS3 definition of affordable housing is:‐ “Affordable housing includes social rented housing and intermediate housing, provided to specified eligible households whose needs are not met by the market” 13.2.2 Basically all affordable housing is subsidised in some way and it is important to clarify what subsidy is because in the past it has been wrongly attributed to public sector grant only. 13.2.3 Subsidy includes not only public funding but also the provision of serviced land by developers either free or at a substantial discount. It may also take of the form of provision of units at not only less than open market value but less than build cost (excluding land value) this is achieved by cross‐subsidising from private sales. It can also take the form of a commuted sum to contribute to the provision of affordable housing off‐site. 13.2.4 The types of affordable housing that comply that with the definition and which DCA have used for over 5 years are as follows:‐
Social Rent ¾ RSL (or other body approved under the Housing Act 2004) units for rent; and
Intermediate Housing ¾ shared ownership (now New Build HomeBuy); ¾ shared equity where land value is retained to provide housing for sale at below market levels and where control of the ‘equity discount’ can be retained as long as needed; ¾ discounted market housing for rent†, also using land value. 13.2.5 These definitions are also those provided in the Housing Market Assessments – Draft Practice Guidance December 2005. These definitions differ in wording in PPS3 Annex B, but have the same core meaning. 146
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13.2.6 The policy guidance gives the Councils the power to negotiate with developers on all new permissions, subject to the ability to provide defensible data to justify need following a robust and up to date assessment provided in this SHMA and subject to a Viability Assessment.
13.3 Low Cost Market Housing 13.3.1 Low cost market housing is mainly one and two bedroom units which are provided to meet the needs of households with income levels just adequate to access the housing market. 13.3.2 These are ‘starter’ homes and are part of the general market. The requirement for these units as part of market delivery is important to the provision of a better quality housing stock and a balanced mix within new delivery. 13.3.3 It has to be assumed that the short term over‐supply of flats over the last few years will resolve itself through market supply / demand balance correction. 13.3.4 The major difficulty and challenge for this sector in the medium to longer term is the affordability of these for new forming households. It is this factor which is creating the need for shared ownership and other forms of subsidised intermediate housing.
13.4 Housing Provision, Demand and Need 13.4.1 The Gateshead UDP sets out provision for an annual average net increase in the dwelling stock of 505 per annum up to 2016. 13.4.2 The North East of England Regional Spatial Strategy to 2021 sets out a provision of 3,590 (gross) additional homes allocated over the plan period to 2021, taking account of existing planning consents. Provision will be expected to be phased over the Plan period as follows:‐
2004‐2011 2011‐2016 2016‐2021 2004‐2021 Proposed Provision 700 940 1,070 880
Source: The North East of England Regional Spatial Strategy to 2021 13.4.3 In 2008, NewcastleGateshead was declared one of 20 New Growth Points, receiving £3.7m from the first block of funding to invest in studies, site preparation and infrastructure to accelerate sustainable housing development to cover the period 2009‐11. However, any further funding will need to be applied for from the Regional Growth Fund. 13.4.4 Growth Points are areas which combine economic development and housing growth while also making a contribution towards tackling identified affordability pressures. 13.4.5 This provides a greater capacity to meet the requirement for both market and affordable housing and to improve the balance and quality of the stock in the future.
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Market Sector 13.4.6 The 2010 Housing Survey identified the scale of demand and need from existing households moving, new households forming and migration across the area. 13.4.7 In Newcastle, the 2010 Housing Survey identified an annual shortfall in the market sector of 1,201 units and of 757 units in Gateshead. Table 13‐1 Private Market Demand Market Demand Shortfall p.a.* Newcastle 1,201 Gateshead 757 Area Total 1,958
* 2010 Housing Survey
Affordable Housing 13.4.8 The SHMA is not the only basis for the Council decision on target levels but it is a major element. Not all new development be on “qualifying” sites, as some market delivery will be on sites below the minimum threshold level. 13.4.9 Consultation discussions with an affordable target of 15% units on sites of over 15 units and excluding regeneration sites in Newcastle and Gateshead would normally be economically achievable, and would help create sustainable development and balanced communities, both key requirements of the development plan. 13.4.10 Meeting the total need for affordable housing is not expected to be met only by new delivery through the planning system. 13.4.11 It also involves a range of initiatives to make best use of the existing social stock, by tackling under‐occupation, by bringing vacant properties back into use and social sector stock up to Decent Homes Standard, and through conversions of existing buildings. 13.4.12 As outlined in 7.11, there is under‐occupation in the social rented stock of over 9,000 three and four bedroom units by two or more spare bedrooms, 4,850 in Newcastle and 4,150 in Gateshead. In the main these are 3 bedroom properties occupied by a single person or a couple. 13.4.13 Making best use of the existing stock is a Government objective which at the present time is not subject to set targets. Freeing up under‐occupied stock is a complex exercise and must be undertaken to initially re‐house current tenants in accommodation best suited to their needs. The supply created from the vacancy enables the double benefit of housing an over‐ crowded family in suitably sized accommodation. 13.4.14 However, new stock to meet the requirements of the older tenant group is needed to facilitate the stock flow process in the social sector. This should be assessed by sub‐areas to identify where new provision should be provided and targeted to under‐occupying tenants.
13.5 Implications for Target Setting 13.5.1 Targets should be set based on what is sustainable, viable and deliverable, and importantly support other corporate strategies, especially for the Growth Point, for regeneration areas and the desire to improve the housing offer to achieve a better socio‐economic balance should be major factors in determining the scale and tenure mix of any affordable housing. 13.5.2 Based on the robust evidence found in this assessment, the Local Development Framework should consider an affordable housing target level of 15%, subject to viability. 148
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13.5.3 Targets may therefore vary on a sub‐area and site by site basis. A major factor in decisions determining the proportion of affordable housing and tenure mix between social rented and intermediate housing on each site is the current local area supply of social rented and shared ownership units which will vary between areas and the site viability analysis. 13.5.4 All of these factors can only be judged with all the information available and this is beyond the scope of this study.
13.6 Balancing Housing Markets 13.6.1 The turnover of the existing stock should meet 90% of all housing requirements. In view of the current stock balance and longer term demographic and household formation change, all future development should address the imbalance of stock type and size, both by tenure and location to create a more sustainable and balanced housing market. 13.6.2 A balanced approach is now the core of Government strategy. Although the majority of units are still required for social rent, there is a need to address the provision of specialist accommodation for older people and bungalows for the more active elderly. 13.6.3 In determining the balance of tenure mix, the number of households who would be able to enter the market through intermediate housing but cannot afford private rent needs to be taken into account.
13.7 Social Rented Accommodation 13.7.1 The local relationship between house prices and incomes is such that around 69% of new households forming within the next three years are unable to afford market rented housing. 13.7.2 The social rented sector is now almost 28.8% of housing stock in Newcastle and 29.0% in Gateshead, well above the national level of 19.3%. The availability of rented stock through re‐lets is adequate to meet over 90% of all need. 13.7.3 New social unit delivery should therefore be targeted to meet the changing housing needs of the growing older population to facilitate an improved flow of three, and then, two and one bedroom units as households move to the size of stock which meets their needs. 13.7.4 However, it is important to realise that in both stock and availability from turnover, the social rented sector provides over 100 times the scale of units (3,805) to those from shared ownership (35) each year.
13.8 Intermediate Market Housing 13.8.1 Despite recent and forecast further falls in house prices, the increase in property prices in excess of income growth over the last decade have excluded many ‘first‐time buyers’ from the owner occupied market. DCA believe therefore that the proportion of affordable housing provided on new sites should encompass more subsidised intermediate market housing than would have been the case ten years ago. 13.8.2 There is no obvious alternative to solve access to the owner occupied market other than increases in incomes above inflation. This is unlikely to occur in the short term and there is therefore a need to deliver more intermediate housing. Just over half of concealed households forming (53%) express preference for owner occupation, but generally around 83% to 92% of them have incomes and savings for a deposit inadequate to be able to purchase.
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Shared Ownership 13.8.3 The total shared ownership stock of 704 units in Newcastle and 585 in Gateshead should generate re‐sales of around 35 units per annum, only 3 units a month. 13.8.4 Shared ownership in its traditional form where rent is paid on the non‐purchased element, often resulting in a higher monthly payment than a full mortgage is becoming less attractive nationally. 13.8.5 Newer forms of shared equity or discounted schemes in perpetuity will need to be promoted to improve the access to the market for young people who do not want or need social rent. In Newcastle/Gateshead two such discounted schemes have been secured under S106 negotiations and will be sold at 70% of the market value. 13.8.6 The major change in house prices over the last decade has made shared ownership a more important factor in providing access to the housing market and in providing balanced communities in new developments. The proportion of intermediate housing is also important in order to be able to address site viability issues. 13.8.7 There is a need to focus product options with developers to maximise the potential of this sector of the market.
Discounted Market Rent 13.8.8 5,053 existing households and 1,187 new households, 6,240 in total, expressed a need for private rental, around 2,080 per annum. Initiatives to deliver discounted market rent could assist some households unable to afford full market costs. 13.8.9 In theory this should be an option for new unit delivery without grant support for households whose only option is shared ownership, especially those at the early stages of their careers or on limited employment contracts who are looking for flexibility in their housing arrangements. 13.8.10 However, discounted market rented housing† can only be delivered provided that there is an adequate cost margin between social rent and market rent. Given that average rents across the City and the Borough are £450 to £550 per month for 1 and 2 bedroom stock there does not appear to be great potential to deliver intermediate rented housing in the Borough. 13.8.11 An increase in higher quality housing provided in this sector could also address the short term needs of lower income households. Low rent levels will not provide a basis for investment in quality rented housing and narrow the income bands where intermediate housing can play a role. 13.8.12 The recent Coalition proposals for new social tenancy rents to be at 80% of market rents eliminates the cost gap and would appear to prevent an intermediate rented market developing.
13.9 Tenure Mix Targets 13.9.1 PPS3 now requires the provision of tenure mix targets within affordable housing policies which may vary by location within the Borough to take account of demand, need and current affordable supply at local level. 13.9.2 The tenure balance of new affordable delivery over the last three years detailed in the Councils HSSA returns has averaged 65% social rent and 35% intermediate housing. 13.9.3 Bearing in mind existing social stock levels and the affordability of intermediate housing initiatives, the Council could consider a future tenure mix target of 75% social rent and 25% intermediate housing.
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13.10 Property Type and Size Targets 13.10.1 The overall affordable housing target and the need for different types and sizes in the affordable and market sectors have been provided to assist Planning and Housing Officers to give direction to deliver the types of housing to create a better balance in the local stock. 13.10.2 A major factor in decisions determining the tenure mix between social rented and intermediate housing on each site is the current local supply of social rented and shared ownership units. 13.10.3 Future development has to address current and future requirements by stock type and size, and both by tenure and location to create a more sustainable and better balanced housing market across the area. HBF report that property size in space terms is as important an issue as the number of bedrooms, the more traditional basis for target setting. 13.10.4 The current area stock has few detached properties with the majority being flats, semi‐ detached and terraced houses. There will be a requirement for family sized units, especially more detached stock over the long term to support in‐migration and economic growth and prevent out‐migration to more attractive environments and better quality housing in Northumberland, North Tyneside and County Durham. 13.10.5 It is also important to recognise that the stock and the demand and supply varies between the social and market sectors. 13.10.6 There is a need to consider the impact of future demographic and planned economic growth changes as key drivers of the market and to provide stock which addresses future household formation change and supports economic growth and regeneration strategies.
Market Sector 13.10.7 The current market stock in Newcastle is dominated by flats and terraced houses and by semi‐detached houses in Gateshead. Future development has therefore to address the imbalance of stock type and size, both by tenure and location to create a more sustainable and balanced housing market. 13.10.8 There is a need to provide a higher proportion of larger 4 bedroom family units to support both regeneration and economic growth strategies than is justified by demand from existing local households. 13.10.9 A better range of quality housing is needed to improve the housing offer available to ensure that these strategies succeed. 13.10.10 There is also significant demand and need expressed for bungalows to meet the requirements of older people and facilitate stock flow in both sectors. 13.10.11 The current economic climate is creating conditions in the housing market which have never been seen before making it almost impossible to forecast what will happen to stock turnover in the housing market over the next one to two years. 13.10.12 Future delivery in the market sector at Plan area level could be set as a guide to developers:‐ ¾ 40% of units, mainly two bedrooms for single / couple and small family households; ¾ 60% three and four bedroom properties for larger families.
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Intermediate Housing Sector 13.10.13 The intermediate sector of the housing market has increased in importance because affordability has become a major issue for both new forming and for some existing households. The majority of need is for one and two bedroom units. 13.10.14 Shared equity could also be considered within the older persons market, both for sheltered and extra care accommodation. 13.10.15 It is recommended that the property size balance in this sector should be 20% one bedroom and 80% two bedroom units.
Social Rent 13.10.16 The vast majority of housing need is met by re‐lets of the existing stock. 13.10.17 However, Housing Survey data estimated that there around 9,000 three bedroom and four bedroom social rented properties which are under‐occupied by two or more bedrooms. In the main these are 3 bedroom properties occupied by a single person or a couple. These properties are a potential source to meet the needs of families on the waiting list and those tenants who are overcrowded. This under‐occupation situation will increase as the population ages, especially in the current period to 2016. 13.10.18 Tackling under‐occupation of family houses to make best use of the existing stock would make a positive contribution to meeting family housing need through better re‐let supply. 13.10.19 Although it is recognised that in practice this is difficult to achieve, making best use of the stock is a core government objective. 13.10.20 Addressing the under‐occupation within the existing 3 and 4 bedroom social stock would help to address the needs of over‐crowded families and should be a strategic housing priority.
13.11 Future Size Targets by Tenure 13.11.1 Local Development Documents need to provide targets on the size of future housing units required. Stock balance, turnover and waiting list demand analysis are vital to identify the gaps in the stock and the proportions by type and size required to address current and future need. 13.11.2 A number of different ratios have been calculated to attempt to provide a clear justification for the balance of property sizes in Local Development Documents. The broad bedroom size targets to meet the requirements of the overall Plan area are shown in the table below. Table 13‐2 Future Delivery by Tenure Bedroom Size (%) Tenure 1 & 2 Bedrooms 3 & 4‐ Bedrooms+ Market Sector 40 30 30 Intermediate 100 0 Social Rented 60 40
13.11.3 However, both authorities have higher than average levels of terraced and semi‐detached stock compared to national levels. They also have a substantially lower level of detached homes and the Partnership recognise the need to address the stock range and quality issues and also that floor space is as important a factor as bedroom numbers.
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13.12 Perpetuity 13.12.1 It is important that additional affordable housing units provided through acquisition, conversion or new delivery add to the available affordable stock in the long term. Many past initiatives have provided subsidy which has been of benefit to the first occupier only. Perpetuity providing control of the subsidy element (whether provided by free land, grant or discount) is vital if the benefit is to be passed to subsequent occupiers for as long as it is needed.
13.13 Off Site Provision / Commuted Sums 13.13.1 It is expected that affordable housing will be normally be provided on‐site to create sustainable and inclusive communities. 13.13.2 There may however be circumstances where it may not be appropriate to provide the affordable housing requirement on site. 13.13.3 The value of the off‐site provision must equal that of providing affordable housing on the original site. In cases where there is agreement between the authority and the developer, a financial contribution equivalent to the value of the subsidy which would have been achieved on site may be acceptable for delivery on an alternative site in the same locality. 13.13.4 The Councils will manage any such contributions to provide affordable housing on an alternative site, used for example to support regeneration sites, especially to address demolition issues, or to finance supported housing schemes.
13.14 Needs Distribution by Sub‐Area, Tenure Type, Size and Location 13.14.1 There will be variance at local level between demand and the supply of existing. The localised balancing housing markets report will be valuable in setting site targets, both to address affordable housing and in particular by house type and size. 13.14.2 The survey data discs contain a breakdown of the whole of the future housing needs section of the questionnaire, which can be used by officers to identify specific needs by sub‐area by cross‐tabulation. 13.14.3 The data tables provided give a localised breakdown of each question, analysed both by existing households planning to move and the newly forming “concealed” households and facilitates the preparation of localised housing type and size requirements.
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14 STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION
14.1 The Housing Market Partnership 14.1.1 The SHMA Practice Guidance encourages the formation of a Housing Market Partnership (HMP), consisting of a multi‐disciplinary team including housing, planning, economic development and regeneration expertise. 14.1.2 The aim of this is to involve stakeholders in the assessment process to capture their local knowledge and expertise and this helps to provide a more robust assessment. 14.1.3 The roles of the HMP are to:‐ ¾ Share and provide intelligence and additional context, and engagement in the outcomes; ¾ Ultimately gain sufficient research experience/expertise to complete assessments; ¾ Support the housing market partnership core members in the analysis and interpretation of housing market intelligence; ¾ Assist with the development of a project plan for undertaking the Strategic Housing Market Assessment and ensuring their findings are regularly reviewed; ¾ Consider the implications of the assessment, including signing off its outputs and agreeing follow‐up actions. 14.1.4 The Project Officer Teams at Newcastle and Gateshead Councils established a local Housing Market Partnership to oversee the SHMA. This includes core representatives from Registered Social Landlords (RSLs), the Housing Corporation, Estate Agents and the Home Builders Federation, in addition to housing and planning representatives from the Council. 14.1.5 The Housing Market Partnership members are listed at Appendix II.
14.2 Consultation with the Partnership 14.2.1 The first Housing partnership meeting was held on 29 June. The purpose of this meeting was to outline the purpose and the methodology of the SHMA and the role of the HMP in overseeing the SHMA. The seminar presentation carried out covered:‐ ¾ The aims and objectives of the SHMA; ¾ The methodology of the SHMA; ¾ The study outputs; ¾ The role of the HMP. 14.2.2 The second Housing Market Partnership meeting was held on the 13 July. The purpose of the meeting was to present the findings from the Interim SHMA report. 14.2.3 The seminar presentation carried out covered:‐ ¾ Key market drivers (Demographics, Migration and Economy); ¾ The current housing situation.
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14.2.4 The third Housing Market Partnership meeting was held on the 19th October to present the findings from the complete draft final report. The seminar presentation covered:‐ ¾ The Active Market; ¾ The Future Population; ¾ The Needs of Specific groups; ¾ The future demand for affordable housing; ¾ The future demand for market housing; ¾ Scale of affordable need; ¾ Future delivery targets.
14.3 Stakeholder Consultation 14.3.1 A stakeholder event was held on the 13 July and 24 November 2010 to present the findings of the draft SHMA report to a wider audience. A final HMP meeting was held on 15 March 2011 to discuss final amendments and sign off the Report.
14.4 Response to Consultation 14.4.1 The draft report has been revised in light of the comments received and further data/information/examination of these issues has been undertaken. The HMP sought to ensure that the final report took account of the results of the consultation undertaken.
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15 UPDATING THE STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT
15.1 Introduction 15.1.1 Following finalisation of the Newcastle and Gateshead SHMA, the data will be subject to annual updating. 15.1.2 According to the SHMA Practice Guidance, Housing Partnerships will need to consider developing comprehensive strategies for monitoring housing market areas and updating their SHMAs. 15.1.3 This section provides guidelines as to how the findings of the SHMA should be monitored and updated on a regular basis. 15.1.4 PPS3 also expects that regular monitoring through the RSS Annual Monitoring Report (AMR) will take place and that where market conditions change there may be a need to reassess demand and need. The SHMA will provide tools to allow regular monitoring and updating to take place, to satisfy requirements of AMR and also keep a watching brief on any changes within the market. 15.1.5 This assessment is easily and readily updated annually. Updating requires tracking short‐ term changes in the housing market conditions, to ensure policies and strategies are responsive to changes in local demands and pressures. 15.1.6 SHMA updates should initially focus on the three main variables identified in the SHMA Practice Guidance, as shown below.
Variable Data source Mid‐year population and households estimates Labour market changes External impacts on the market Interest rates Income and earnings surveys New build completions Affordable housing delivered through S106 agreements / or on Council land using NAHP Housing stock changes Demolitions Remodelling Outstanding planning permissions House prices Private sector rents Affordability changes Changes in household incomes Shared ownership initiatives etc
15.1.7 The set of core indicators above will be used, which DCA has developed during the course of the study. These could be integrated into the new monitoring framework for LDFs (Annual Monitoring Report).
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15.1.8 The following sections outline the process of updating the various elements of the SHMA. It also provides a guideline date for when a full revised Strategic Housing Market Assessment is due and details of any market triggers which may affect this timescale and cause the projected timescale to be brought forward.
15.2 Updating the CLG Needs Assessment Model 15.2.1 The Client Data CD provided upon completion of the SHMA contains a Needs Assessment Model Calculator. 15.2.2 The purpose of the calculator is to allow annual updating of all the secondary data utilised in the Model and to enable this to be done in‐house. 15.2.3 A detailed description of the secondary data required, where it can be sourced from and how it is applied to each element of the Assessment Model calculation is included in the introduction to the calculator. 15.2.4 It is recommended that this updating to the Model is carried out at the same time as completion of the annual HSSA.
15.3 Updating Other Secondary Data 15.3.1 There are a wide range of secondary data sources used in the SHMA which are updated on a quarterly or an annual basis. 15.3.2 Appendix III of this SHMA outlines the sources of secondary data used in this assessment. This document details: ¾ The source location i.e. where the data can be accessed from; ¾ The year or quarter of the data used in the SHMA; ¾ Frequency of release of the various data sets. e.g. quarterly or annually; ¾ The next release date of each data set following completion of the SHMA. 15.3.3 This document can be used as a guide to when each data set is available and can be updated in the SHMA. 15.3.4 In addition, Annex B of the SHMA Practice Guidance provides a comprehensive list of data sources which may be used in a SHMA.
15.4 Updating the Primary Survey Data 15.4.1 The primary data file within the initial survey requires a complex weighting process to ensure that it is representative of the whole population. 15.4.2 DCA would normally provide, within their support service, a process which would re‐run the survey data to the current household population at the time of update. This is normally two years after the initial study has been undertaken. This has the effect of making a minor change to the data to reflect the study results as if they had been assessed in the current population. 15.4.3 It is recommended that this re‐weighting is undertaken by the original survey specialist company or at least with their assistance.
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15.5 Monitoring and Communicating Changes to the SHMA 15.5.1 Partnership working would be of paramount importance to ensure that updating of the SHMA is done with the consent and knowledge of all involved. 15.5.2 The continuation of a key project officer team to oversee the updating and to ensure access to the most recent versions of the SHMA report sections would be essential. 15.5.3 There are various ways in which the wider partnership can be made aware of changes to the SHMA and how it can be ensured that the reader is accessing the most recent version of the report. 15.5.4 One suggestion as to how this can be communicated is through the Newcastle and / or Gateshead Council websites, where the most up to date versions of each chapter can be made available. If people wish to access a previous version, this could be accessed through an archive. 15.5.5 A ‘log’ of updated changes made to the data could be devised which would be ongoing. This could be displayed as a document on the website and would detail:‐ ¾ The section that has been changed; ¾ The date it was updated; ¾ A brief note of the change(s) made; ¾ A note of any other sections affected.
15.6 Plans to Fully Revise the Newcastle and Gateshead SHMA 15.6.1 Strategic Housing Market Assessments provide a robust basis for developing housing and planning policies by considering current and future need and demand over a period of around 20 years. As a result HMP’s should not need to undertake a full comprehensive assessment more frequently than every five years. 15.6.2 The next full Newcastle and Gateshead SHMA will be due in 2015.
15.7 Market Triggers 15.7.1 During the course of updating the SHMA and accessing revised data, Housing Market Partnerships should work together to review the data annually. From these reviews an assessment can be made of how radically new data or changes in the housing market affect the assessment and can also suggest whether the new information means a re‐assessment of the SHMA is needed earlier than 2015. 15.7.2 Possible triggers for a revised assessment are:‐ ¾ A significant local economic change, e.g. downturn or upturn in the market; ¾ Significant stock delivery changes; ¾ Major house price change; ¾ Change in Government Policy or Guidance.
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16 BIBLIOGRAPHY
Year Document Published by Published Barker Review of Housing Supply, Delivering Stability: Securing ODPM 2004 our Future Housing Needs, London. Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3): Housing CLG 2005 Sustainable Communities: Homes for All CLG 2005 Strategic Housing Market Assessments: Practice Guidance CLG 2007 Land Registry Residential Property Price Report, 2nd Land Registry 2010 Quarter 2010 Affordability Matters NHPAU 2007 Can’t Supply: Cant Buy Steve Wilcox 2008 Analysis of Census Migration Data to Define Housing Market CURDS 2004 Areas for Tyne & Wear Newcastle CC and NewcastleGateshead Investment Plan (2010‐2030) Gateshead BC 'Everyone's Tomorrow' ‐ the strategy for older people and Newcastle CC 2007 an ageing population in Newcastle Newcastle Supporting People Strategy, 2008/09‐2012/13 Newcastle CC 2008 Newcastle Housing Strategy Refresh, 2010‐2012 Newcastle CC ‘Newcastle in 2021 – A Regeneration strategy for Newcastle’ Newcastle CC Newcastle Student Housing Strategy Newcastle CC 2009 Newcastle Homeless Strategy, 2008‐2013 Newcastle CC Gateshead Housing Strategy, 2007‐2012 Gateshead BC Gateshead Councils Housing Strategy for Older People, 2007‐ Gateshead BC 2012 Gateshead Private Sector Housing Renewal Strategy, 2009‐2012 Gateshead BC Gateshead Homeless Strategy, 2008‐2013 Gateshead BC Gateshead Unitary Development Plan (UDP) Gateshead BC 2007 Gateshead UDP saved Polices Gateshead BC 2010 The Gateshead Regeneration Delivery Strategy : Fit for a Gateshead BC City’ Gateshead ‘Strategic Commissioning for Independence, Gateshead BC Wellbeing and Choice, 2009‐2015,
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APPENDIX I
SURVEY FORM HOUSING NEEDS SURVEY 2010 1
(A) ABOUT YOUR EXISTING HOME
(A1a) What type of accommodation is your current home?
Detached house 01 Tyneside flat 05 Semi-detached house 02 Low rise flat/maisonette 06 Terraced house 03 High rise flat/maisonette 07 (including end terrace) Supported housing 08 (Refer to definition sheet if necessary) Bungalow 04 Sheltered housing 09 (Refer to definition sheet if necessary)
(A2) Do you own or rent your home?
Own outright (no mortgage or loan secured on property) 01 Own but paying mortgage/loan 02 Shared ownership (part rent / part buy) 03 Rent privately 04 Rent privately room(s) in shared house 05 Rent from Council (via YHN or G’head Housing Co.) 06 Rent from housing association 07 Provided as part of employment 08 Paying rent to relative/friend 09 Living rent free with relative/friend 10
(A3) Excluding kitchens and bathrooms/WCs, how many rooms does your home have?
(A4) How many bedrooms does your home have? (CLARIFY DEFINITION OF BEDROOM)
(A5) How long have you lived in your current home?
Less than a year 1 3 to 5 years 4 1 to 2 years 2 5 to 10 years 5 2 to 3 years 3 Over 10 years [GO TO B1] 6
(A6) If you have moved in the previous 10 years, where did you previously live?
Newcastle 01 Northumberland 05 Gateshead 02 Durham 06 North Tyneside 03 Elsewhere in UK 07 South Tyneside / Sunderland 04 Abroad 08
(A7) Did you own or rent your previous home? Owner occupied 01 Shared ownership (part rent / part buy) 02 Rented privately 03 Rented privately room(s) in shared house 04 Rented from Council (via YHN / Gateshead Housing Co.) 05 Rented from housing association 06 Provided as part of employment 07 Paid rent to relative/friend 08 Lived rent free with relative/friend (inc. living with parents) 09 Homeless / in temporary accommodation 10
(A8) Is your current home the first of your own as an adult? Yes 1 No 2
(A9) Please rank in order of importance (1 being most important and 3 least important) up to 3 main reasons for your household choosing to move to your current home. SHOWCARD A9
01 Better quality area 11 Modern home 02 Close to facilities/services 12 Older/character home 03 Quality of local schools 13 More/easier car parking 04 Value for money 14 To be near family/friends 05 To get on housing ladder 15 New relationship / break up 06 Larger home 16 Retirement 07 Smaller home 17 New job 08 Garden/outdoor space 18 Convenient location for work 09 Easier to maintain 19 Health reasons 10 Easier/cheaper to heat 20 Harassment / neighbour dispute / anti-social behaviour
(B) ABOUT YOUR HOUSEHOLD
(B1) Please tell me which best describes each person living in your home in the table below
Household Relationship to Gender (M/F) Age Working Occupation member yourself status Example 1 M 40 3 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
‘Relationship to yourself’ categories: 1 Self/ Me 4 Child 7 Parent 2 Spouse/ Partner 5 Partner of Child 8 Other relative 3 Brother/ Sister 6 Grandchild 9 Friend/ Lodger
‘Working status’ categories (for members aged 16+ only):SHOW CARD B1 1 Full-time (30+ hours/week) 6 Unemployed 2 Part-time (up to 30hrs/wk) 7 Permanently sick/disabled 3 Self-employed 8 Wholly retired from work 4 Government Training scheme 9 Looking after home/family 5 Full-time education (age 16+) 10 Full/part-time carer
‘Occupation’ categories 1 Private sector 2 Public sector 3 Voluntary sector 4 Not working
(B2) How many cars or vans are owned or available for use by one or more members of your household?
None 0 One 1 Two 2 Three or more 3 (B3) In your opinion, is your current home adequate for your needs? 2
Yes 1 GO TO B8 No 2
(B4) If no, please rank up to 3 main reasons why this is, in order of importance (1 being most important and 3 least important). SHOWCARD B4
01 Too small 08 Needs of disabled/elderly member 02 Too large 09 Rent/mortgage/bills too expensive 03 Major disrepair 10 Lack of/cost of heating 04 Lack of facilities 11 Too far from work/family/friends 05 Lack of outdoor space 12 Harassment/neighbour dispute/ anti- social behaviour 06 Car parking/garages 13 Threat of eviction/repossession 07 Tenancy insecure
(B5) How do you prefer to resolve these difficulties?
Prefer to stay in existing home and can afford 1 improvements/landlord expected to make improvements Prefer to stay but cannot afford improvements/landlord 2 unlikely to make improvements Need to move to more appropriate accommodation 3
(B6) If you need to move can you afford to buy a suitable home in an acceptable location?
Yes 1 No 2
(B7) What measures have you taken to secure a move? (Circle all that apply)
Current house on market 01 Regularly looking at 06 property websites/press Visiting properties 02 On social housing 07 register / transfer list Registered with or visiting 03 None 08 estate/ letting agents ‘In principle’ mortgage 04 Mortgage advice sought 09 offer Application for mortgage 05 refused
(B8) Please estimate your total annual gross household income (before tax and deductions and including any income from investments and state benefits). SHOW CARD B8
Under £5,000 01 £20,001-£22,500 08 £45,001-£50,000 15 £5,000-£7,500 02 £22,501-£25,000 09 £50,001-£60,000 16 £7,501-£10,000 03 £25,001-£27,500 10 £60,001-£75,000 17 £10,001-£12,500 04 £27,501-£30,000 11 £75,001-£100,000 18 £12,501-£15,000 05 £30,001-£35,000 12 Over £100,000 19 £15,001-£17,500 06 £35,001-£40,000 13 Declined 20 £17,501-£20,000 07 £40,001-£45,000 14
(B9) Please estimate how much your household has in savings/debt (debt excludes mortgage). SHOW CARD B9
More than £20,000 in debt 01 £2,500-£5,000 in savings 07 £10,000-£20,000 in debt 02 £5,001-£7,500 in savings 08 £5,000-£9,999 in debt 03 £7,501-£10,000 in savings 09 Less than £5,000 in debt 04 £10,501-£15,000 in savings 10 No savings/no debt 05 £15,001-£20,000 in savings 11 Less than £2,500 in savings 06 £20,001-£30,000 in savings 12 Above £30,000 in savings 13 Declined 14
(B10) If you own your home please estimate its current value and how much equity (money) you would receive if you sold your home now, after paying off your mortgage(s).
Amount Amount In negative equity 01 £90,001-£100,000 11 Less than £10,000 02 £100,001-£110,000 12 VALUE: £10,001-£20,000 03 £110,001-£125,000 13 £20,001-£30,000 04 £125,001-£150,000 14 EQUITY: £30,001-£40,000 05 £150,001-£175,000 15 £40,001-£50,000 06 £175,001-£200,000 16 £50,001-£60,000 07 £200,001-£250,000 17 £60,001-£70,000 08 £250,001-£300,000 18 £70,001-£80,000 09 Over £300,000 19 £80,001-£90,000 10 Declined 20
(B11) Please estimate how much your household pays in rent or mortgage costs each month (inclusive of any Local Housing Allowance / Housing Benefit).
Under £200 01 £401-£450 06 £701-£800 11 £201-£250 02 £451-£500 07 £801-£900 12 £251-£300 03 £501-£550 08 £901-£1000 13 £301-£350 04 £551-£600 09 More than 14 £351-£400 05 £601-£700 10 £1000 Declined 15
(B12) Does your household receive Local Housing Allowance (Housing Benefit) to help with housing costs?
Yes, in full 1 Yes, in part 2 No 3
(B13) Are you in mortgage or rent arrears?
No arrears 1 Between 1 and 3 4 months in arrears Not yet in arrears but difficulties 2 More than 3 months in 5 in meeting payments arrears Up to one month in arrears 3 Facing repossession/ 6 eviction Declined 7
SUPPORT NEEDS
(B14) Do you consider that any member of your household has a disability or a limiting long-term illness? (Circle all that apply)
Household member (please enter same numbers from B1) Wheelchair user 1 1 1 Other walking difficulty 2 2 2 Learning/ mental health problem 3 3 3 Visual impairment 4 4 4 Hearing impairment 5 5 5 Asthmatic/ respiratory problem 6 6 6 Other physical disability 7 7 7 Limiting long-term illness 0 0 0
(B15) What facilities/services does your property already have and what improvements need to be provided to enable this/these member(s) to remain in your property? (Circle all that apply)
Already have Need Wheelchair accessibility 01 11 Improved access to property 02 12 Lift/stairlift 03 13 Bathroom adaptations 04 14 Extension 05 15 Ground floor toilet/shower 06 16 Handrails/grabrails 07 17 Support (home carer, meals on wheels) 08 18 Help maintaining home/garden 09 19 Other 10 20
(B16) Can you afford to make the required improvements?
Yes 1 No 2
(C) EXISTING HOUSEHOLDS MOVING
IF THE HOUSEHOLD IS NOT MOVING WITHIN THE NEXT THREE YEARS GO TO D
(C1) If your household needs, or intends to move home with the next 3 years when do you plan to move?
Within 12 months 1 In 1 to 2 years 2 In 2 to 3 years 3
(C2) What type of accommodation do you expect/prefer to move to?
Detached house 01 Low-rise flat/maisonette 06 EXPECT: Semi-detached house 02 High rise flat/maisonette 07 Terraced house 03 Supported housing 08 PREFER: Bungalow 04 Sheltered housing 09 Tyneside flat 05 Gypsy/traveller site 10
(C3) How many bedrooms do you expect to have and how many would you prefer to have? Expect Prefer
(C4) Do you expect/prefer to own or rent your new home?
Own outright (without mortgage or loan) 01 Own but paying mortgage/loan 02 EXPECT: Shared ownership (part rent/part buy) 03 (Refer to definition sheet if necessary) PREFER: Rent privately 04 Rent privately room(s) in shared house 05 Rent from Council (via YHN or GHC) 06 Rent from housing association 07 Provided as part of employment 08 Live rent free with relative/friend 09
(C5) Where do you expect your new home to be located and where would you prefer your new home to be located? (CLARIFY IF NECESSARY)
Newcastle City Centre 01 North Tyneside 07 EXPECT: Newcastle Suburbs 02 S. Tyneside/Sunderland 08 Newcastle Villages 03 Northumberland 09 PREFER: Gateshead Town Centre 04 Durham 10 Gateshead Suburbs 05 Elsewhere in UK 11 Gateshead Villages 06 Abroad 12
(C5a) If you would expect or prefer to live in Newcastle or Gateshead, please state which ward would you expect your new home to be located in and which ward would you prefer your new home to be located in (ENTER WARD CODE FROM MAP)
Expect: Prefer:
(C6) If you are buying a home (or a part share), how much do you expect to spend and how much could you afford to spend? (TOTAL VALUE OF HOME)
Price Price Under £50,000 01 £110,001-£125,000 08 EXPECT: £50,000-£60,000 02 £125,001-£150,000 09 EXPECT: £60,001-£70,000 03 £150,001-£175,000 10 AFFORD: PREFER: £70,001-£80,000 04 £175,001-£200,000 11 £80,001-£90,000 05 £200,001-£250,000 12 £90,001-£100,000 06 £250,001-£300,000 13 £100,001-£110,000 07 Over £300,000 14
(C7) Please rank in order of importance (1 being most important and 3 least 3 important) up to 3 main reasons for your household seeking to move. SHOW CARD C7
01 Better quality area 12 Modern home 02 Close to facilities/services 13 Older/character home 03 Quality of local schools 14 More/easier car parking 04 Value for money 15 To be near family/friends 05 To get on housing ladder 16 New relationship/break up 06 Larger home 17 Retirement 07 Smaller home 18 New job 08 Garden/outdoor space 19 Convenient location for work 09 Easier to maintain 20 Health reasons 10 Easier/cheaper to heat 21 Harassment/neighbour 11 Choice of housing dispute/anti-social behaviour
(D) NEWLY FORMING HOUSEHOLDS
Please complete this section only if any of the persons in the household needs or intends to move to their own separate accommodation within three years, excluding persons moving into existing households (e.g. moving into their partner’s existing home). IF NOT GO STRAIGHT TO SECTION E
(D1) When will separate accommodation be required? If more than one household is likely to form then provide details for a second household.
Household Household 1 2 Within 12 months 1 1 In 1 to 2 years 2 2 In 2 to 3 years 3 3
(D2) Please enter information (actual or estimated) that best describes each person expected to be part of the first new household expected to form using the category options given. Please also include any babies due to be born to a member of the new household.
For the first member of the new household please indicate their relationship to yourself using the categories in Question B1. For other members please select the relationship to the first household member from the categories below. SHOW CARD D2
Household member Relationship Gender Age Working Currently (M/F) status live? Example 4 M 25 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
Relationship to first household member categories: 1 Spouse/Partner 3 Brother/Sister 5 Friend 2 Child 4 Other relative 6 Lodger
Please refer to the categories set out under B1 for ‘Working Status’ and the following categories for ‘Currently live’
Currently live categories for additional household members: (SHOW CARD 4) 1 In your household 4 In North Tyneside 2 Elsewhere in Newcastle 5 Elsewhere in UK 3 Elsewhere in Gateshead 6 Abroad
(D3) What type of housing do they expect/prefer to move to?
EXPECT: Detached house 01 Low-rise flat/maisonette 06 Semi-detached house 02 High rise flat/maisonette 07 PREFER: Terraced house 03 Supported housing 08 (inc. end terrace) Sheltered housing 09 Bungalow 04 Gypsy site 10 Tyneside flat 05
(D4) Do they expect/prefer to own or rent their new home?
Please select one option only: Own outright 01 Own but paying mortgage/loan 02 EXPECT: Shared ownership (part rent / part buy) 03 (Refer to definition sheet if necessary) PREFER: Rent privately 04 Rent privately room(s) in shared house 05 Rent from Council 06 (via YHN or Gateshead Housing Co.) Rent from housing association 07 Provided as part of employment 08 Live rent free with relative/friend 09
(D5) How many bedrooms do they expect to have? How many bedrooms would they prefer to have?
Expect Prefer
(D6) Where do they expect/prefer their new home to be located?
Newcastle 01 Northumberland 05 EXPECT:
Gateshead 02 Durham 06 PREFER: North Tyneside 03 Elsewhere in UK 07 S.Tyneside/Sunderland 04 Abroad 08
(D6a) If they would expect or prefer to live in Newcastle or Gateshead, please state which ward they would expect their new home to be located in and which ward they would prefer their new home to be located in (ENTER WARD CODE FROM MAP)
Expect: Prefer:
(D7) Please rank in order of importance (1 being most important and 3 4 least important) up to 3 main reasons for this location being preferred? SHOW CARD D7
01 Affordability of area 06 Value for money 02 Familiarity with area 07 Quality of local schools 03 Quality of 08 More/easier car parking neighbourhood 04 Choice of housing 09 To be near relative(s) 05 Modern home 10 Convenient location to work
(D8) Please estimate how much the new household will be able and willing to pay in rent and/or mortgage costs each month
Under £200 01 £401-£450 06 £701-£800 11 £201-£250 02 £451-£500 07 £801-£900 12 £251-£300 03 £501-£550 08 £901-£1000 13 £301-£350 04 £551-£600 09 More than 14 £351-£400 05 £601-£700 10 £1000
(D9) What level of deposit will the new household be able to raise? (after allowing for other buying and furnishing costs)
None 01 £7,501-£10,000 05 £25,001-£30,000 09 £0-£2,500 02 £10.001-£15,000 06 £30,001-£35,000 10 £2,501-£5,000 03 £15,001-£20,000 07 £35,001-£40,000 11 £5,001-£7,500 04 £20,001-£25,000 08 Over £40,000 12
(D10) Please estimate the new household’s total annual gross household income (before tax/deductions and including any income from investments and state benefits)
Under £5,000 01 £17,501-£20,000 07 £35,001-£40,000 13 £5,000-£7,500 02 £20,001-£22,500 08 £40,001-£45,000 14 £7,501-£10,000 03 £22,501-£25,000 09 £45,001-£50,000 15 £10,001-£12,500 04 £25,001-£27,500 10 £50,001-£60,000 16 £12,501-£15,000 05 £27,501-£30,000 11 £60,001-£75,000 17 £15,001-£17,500 06 £30,001-£35,000 12 Over £75,000 18
(D11) Is the new household already registered on a Housing Waiting list?
Your Homes Newcastle 1 Housing Association 3 Gateshead Housing Company 2 Other Council 4
(D12) Is the new household likely to be claiming any benefits?
Local Housing Allowance (Housing Benefit) 1 Other state benefits 2
(D13) If they are looking to buy a home (or a share of a home), what is the maximum value of home the household could afford to buy? (CLARIFY TOTAL VALUE OF HOUSE)
Amount Amount Under £50,000 01 £110,001-£125,000 08 £50,000-£60,000 02 £125,001-£150,000 09 EXPECT: £60,001-£70,000 03 £150,001-£175,000 10 £70,001-£80,000 04 £175,001-£200,000 11 PREFER: £80,001-£90,000 05 £200,001-£250,000 12 £90,001-£100,000 06 £250,001-£300,000 13 £100,001-£110,000 07 Over £300,000 14
(D14) What measures have they taken to secure a move? (Circle all that apply)
Current house on market 01 Regularly looking at 06 property websites/press Visiting properties 02 On social housing 07 register / transfer list Registered with or visiting 03 None 08 estate/ letting agents ‘In principle’ mortgage 04 Mortgage advice sought 08 offer Application for mortgage 05 refused
(E) ABOUT YOURSELF
Newcastle and Gateshead Councils are committed to promoting equality and to treating everyone fairly and with respect. We would like some information about you because this helps us to monitor whether our services and policies are meeting everyone’s needs.
Disability
(E1) Under the Disability Discrimination Acts 1995 and 2005 you are considered to have a disability if you have a physical or mental impairment which has a substantial long term adverse effect on your ability to carry out day to day activities. Do you consider that you meet this definition?
Yes 1 No 2 Prefer not to say 3
(E2) If ‘yes’ to E1, please state ALL impairment types that apply
Mobility 01 Learning difficulties 05 Visual impairment 02 Other 06 Hearing impairment 03 Prefer not to say 07 Mental health 04
Religion
(E3) What is your religion? SHOW CARD E3
Christian 01 Sikh 06 Buddhist 02 Other religion 07 Hindu 03 No religion 08 Jewish 04 Prefer not to say 09 Muslim 05
Ethnic group
(E4) Which ethnic group do you belong to? SHOW E4
White White & Asian 07 Black or Black White British 01 Other Mixed 08 British White Irish 02 Background Caribbean 13 White European 03 Asian or African 14 Other White 04 Asian British Other Black 15 Mixed Indian 09 Background White & Black 05 Pakistani 10 Chinese 16 Caribbean Bangladeshi 11 Gypsy/Traveller 17 White & Black 06 Other Asian 12 Other 18 African Background Sexual orientation
(E5) What is your sexual orientation? SHOW CARD E5
Heterosexual/straight 1 Bisexual 4 Gay man 2 Other 5 Gay woman/lesbian 3 Prefer not to say 6
Housing information and advice
(E6) To help us and our partners deliver and coordinate our services please indicate whether you or anyone in your household would benefit from information or advice on the following issues (please circle all that apply) SHOW CARD E6
Home maintenance 01 Mortgage advice 07 Energy efficiency 02 Rent advice 08 Movement around the home 03 Debt advice 09 Services available in the home 04 Loan/grant advice 10 Other services and facilities 05 Moving home and 11 available in your local area options available Living independently 06
Take respondent's name and telephone number if advice/information requested.
Name: Telephone:
Tick box if respondent would like to enter the prize draw for £100 of Eldon Square/Metro Centre Shopping Vouchers
(E7) Area of interview: Newcastle 1 Gateshead 2
Researcher:
Date:
Attach Property Address Label Here:
Thank you for being interviewed. Everything you have said will remain confidential and be stored securely. APPENDIX II
MEMBERSHIP OF THE SHMA HOUSING MARKET PARTNERSHIP AND STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION
Stakeholder consultation was a major element of the Newcastle and Gateshead SHMA.
The following organisations were members of the Local Housing Partnership. This core stakeholder group either attended the SHMA meetings and / or provided written comments.
Type of Organisation Name Department and Name of Organisation Planning and Housing Strategy, Newcastle City Peter Cockbain Council Planning and Housing Strategy, Newcastle City Mark Ellis Council Planning and Housing Strategy, Newcastle City Local Nicola Woodward Council Government Richard Hall Housing Strategy, Gateshead Council Jane Howarth Spatial Development, Gateshead Council Lorna Sharp Spatial Development, Gateshead Council Geoff Bloxsom Planning, North Tyneside Council
Adrian Hadden Head of Housing, Government Office North East County / Regional Policy and Research, Bridging Newcastle Grant Rainey Government Gateshead Peter Sturman Tyne and Wear Research
National Government Karen Anderson Strategy and Information, Housing Corporation Agency
RSL / HA Michael Farr The ISOS Housing Group
House Builders / Building & Engineering Ian Cansfield Cundall, Johnston and Partners LLP Consultants
The following organisations attended the wider stakeholder group held on the 3 August 2010.
Type of Organisation Name Department and Name of Organisation Newcastle CC Nick laudner Area Housing Coordinator (East)
Craig Ellis Area Planning Gemma Jones Area Planning Service Manager, commissioning and Julie Walls safeguarding, adult care Gateshead CC Tim Grew Housing development officer, vulnerable people Martin Gray Head of Policy, Policy Planning and Development Anneliese Hutchinson Head of Regulatory Services Peter Mennell Strategic Housing
North Tyneside Council Ian Green Housing Strategy Development Officer
Senior Planning Officer, Government Office North Gareth Hunter East Regional Bodies Joe McTigue BridgingNewcastleGateshead Grant Rainey Bridgin NewcastleGateshead
Private Sector Landlord Dominic Hunter NCA
RSL / HA Lea Smith ISOS
Sandra Thompson Regional Director, Signet Planning Planning James Johnson Development Planner, Northumberland Estates Consultants Colin White WCC
Neil Milburn Development Director, Barratt (Newcastle) Stephen Litherland Bellway Homes Home Builders Ed Alder Ben Bailey Homes David Jenkins Persimmon Homes
Mike Overton NHS Gateshead PCT Health and Education Vivienne Robinson Accommodation Services, Newcastle University
The following organisations attended the wider stakeholder group held on the 24 November 2010.
Type of Organisation Name Department and Name of Organisation Mark Ellis Planning & Housing Strategy Ed Banks ABR East Andrew Corder Area Housing Coordinator Newcastle CC Kimberley Samuelson Public Health & Private Sector Housing Louise Lane Adult & Culture Services Andrew Philips ABR West Julie Bhabra ABR East
John Costello Chief Executive Neighbourhood Renewal Officer, Private Sector Peter McDermott Housing Gateshead CC Amanda Reed Private Sector Renewal Sarah Anderson Planning Officer Andrew Holtham Property Services Bernard Orchard Property Services
North Tyneside Council Geoff Bloxsom
Northumberland Stephanie Linnell
County Durham John Smerdon
HCA Dermot Sellars
Andrew Sloan BridgingNewcastleGateshead Regional Bodies Joe McTigue BridgingNewcastleGateshead Grant Rainey BridgingNewcastleGateshead
Private Landlord Bruce Haagensen National Landlords Association
Vince W ISOS C Oshea River IDF RSL / HA Val Schollar Ten Fed Exec Mick Lambert Ten Fed Exec
Caroline Strugnall Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Planning Scott Munro Director, GVA Grimley Ltd Consultants James Johnson Development Planner, Northumberland Esates Nathan Smith Barton Wilmore
Peter Jordan Chair of North East branch of HBF Home Builders Christ Struthers Persimmon Phil Toal Frank Haslam Milan
Health and Education Vivienne Robinson Accommodation Services, Newcastle University
Estate Agents Nicola Osbourne Sanderson Young
Research and Peter Sturman Tyne and Wear Research & Information Intelligence Officers
The following organisations were invited to the stakeholder events on the 3 August and / or the 24 November but were unable to attend:
Type of Organisation Name Department and Name of Organisation Harvey Emms Director SHP&T Nicola Woodward Head of Planning & Housing Strategy Peter Cockbain Planning & Housing Strategy Dianne Perry Planning & Housing Strategy Gary Murphy Planning & Housing Strategy Fiona Dodsworth Equalities, Planning & Housing Strategy Julie Markham Allocations, Planning & Housing Strategy Brian O’Doherty Housing Delivery & Partnerships Manager Marie McDonald Housing Delivery Manager Neil Munslow Housing Services Manager, Adult Services Newcastle Council Claire McMullen Private Rented Service Manager Vivienne Air Head of environment & Public Protection Martin Walker Guy Curry Area Director (East), Area Based Regeneration Paul Marshall Area Director (north), Area Based Regeneration Helen Golightly Corporate Programme Manager, ABR Amanda Senior Corporate Project Manager, ABR Karen Harrison Newcastle Tenants Federation Helen Balmbra Children’s Services Ruth Badoo Social inclusion & Diversity
Ian Cansfield Jane Howarth Planning Officer Lorna Sharp Planning Officer Richard Hall Strategy Development Manager, Strategic Housing Julie Walls Adult Care, Community Based Services, Alyson Learmonth Gateshead PCT and Council Anne Britton Economic Development Debbie Cassidy Private sector renewal Doug Basen Private sector renewal Rosemary Wilson Disabilities Gemma Ranft Quality and service improvement, Community based services Gateshead Council Katy Lowery Learning Disabilities Paul Dowling Director of Development & Enterprise Councillor Angela Douglas Portfolio holder, Housing Councillor John Mc Elroy Portfolio holder, Sustainable Communities Malcolm Graham MBE Portfolio holder, Sustainable Communities Jackie Park Head of Housing Services Andrew Haysey Transport Planning Manager Councillor Henry Chair of the LSP Barry Norman Supporting People Team David Andrew Neighbourhood Management Paul Dillon Linda Lacy Andy Clarke
Stuart Timmus Head of Planning County Durham Karen Anderson
Shiela Tolley Director, BridgingNewcastleGateshead Glyn Drury Director, Tyne and Wear Housing Partnership Phil Jones Planning and Housing Manager, One North East Eddie Halstead Spatial Planning and Housing Specialist Adviser Mike Clarke ANEC Regional Bodies Amy Michie Government Office for the North East Barry Errington Government Office for the North East Gerry Choat Regional Planning Director, Bellway Homes Philip James Taylor Wimpley Steve Jackson Land Manager, Yuill Homes
Philip Barnes Director, Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Planning Consultants James Hall Director, Barton Wilmore Sean Hedley Partner, Sanderson Weatherall LLP
Michael Farr Regeneration Director, Isos Housing Group Genny Ryan Your Homes Newcastle Maurice Condie Chief Executive, Byker Bridge, Housing Association Geoff Boyd Cheviot Homes Julie Gray Riverside NE Gordon Gray Durham Aged Mineworkers Homes Association Kathryn West Anchor Trust RSL and ALMOs Graeme Darby Home Ian Stanners Johnnie Johnson Housing Trust Sarah Paton Places for People Sheila Hastie Railway Housing Association Stephen Ward Riverside North East Stephanie Murphy Two Castles Housing Association Ltd Wendy Pretten William Sutton Trust Barry Walker Gentoo
Keith Pattinson Pattinson Estate Agents Duncan Young MD, Sanderson Young Estate Agents Nick Manson, MD, Mansons Dominic Robinson, National Landlords Association Johnny Lighten, National Landlords Association
John Telfer, Access & Inclusion consultant Auditor Simon T Shelter Voluntary and Martin Gollan, Newcastle CVS Community Sector Colin Robertson, SITRA Barbara Douglas, Quality of Life Partnership
Research and Carol Burdis, Tyne & Wear Research & Information Intelligence officers Jon Carling, Head of NERIP
Lender Angela Russell, Newcastle Building Society
Prof. Stephen Singleton, NHS Health and David Chappell, NEPHO Education Margod Hunter, Newcastle University Phill Vergnano, Northumbria University
Local strategic Kehri Ellis, Director Newcastle LSP Partnership
APPENDIX III
SECONDARY DATA SOURCES SHMA Secondary Data Sources
Data Source Description Source Location Coverage Frequency of Next Release Sample Cost Release Date 2009 Annual Survey The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) National Statistics Nationally Annually November 2010 Approximately 1% Free of Hours and provides information about the level, distribution Online / NOMIS sample of Earnings (ASHE) and make‐up of earnings and hours paid for employees on the employees within industries, occupations and Inland Revenue regions. PAYE register
The ASHE was developed to replace the New Earnings Survey (NES) in 2004.
The ASHE contains UK data on earnings for employees by sex and full‐time/part‐time workers. Further breakdowns include by region, occupation, industry, region by occupation and age‐groups. These breakdowns are available for the following variables: gross weekly pay, weekly pay excluding overtime, basic pay including other pay, overtime pay, gross hourly pay, hourly pay excluding overtime, gross annual pay, annual incentive pay, total paid hours, basic paid hours and paid overtime hours.
2008 Annual The Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) is conducted in National Statistics Local Authority Annually December 2010 (ABI) estimates Limited data from Business Inquiry two parts: one dealing with employment, the Online / NOMIS and above (ABI year 2009) cover all UK NOMIS available other with financial information. The financial businesses free Full access to inquiry covers about two thirds of the UK registered for Value ABI data is economy including: production; construction; Added Tax (VAT) restricted. You distribution and service industries; agriculture and/or Pay As you must first obtain (part), hunting, forestry and fishing. The coverage Earn (PAYE), a Chancellor of of the employment inquiry is wider. classified to the the Exchequer's 1992 or 2003 Notice from ONS. standard industrial Classification.
DATA SOURCE DESCRIPTION SOURCE LOCATION COVERAGE FREQUENCY OF NEXT RELEASE SAMPLE COST RELEASE 2008/09ONS The ONS Annual Population Survey is a National Statistics Local Authority Annually and October 2010 There are Free Annual Population residence based labour market survey Online / NOMIS and above Updated approximately Survey encompassing population, economic activity, Quarterly 170,000 households economic inactivity and qualifications. and 360,000 persons per dataset. However this varies from year to year. Census 2001 The Census is a count of all people and all Office for National Nationally Every 10 years Next Census Free households. It the most complete source of Statistics undertaken in information about the population that we have. March 2011. Data The most recent census was on 29 April 2001. It available covers everyone at the same time and asks the generally two same core questions which makes it easy for years later (2013) comparisons in different parts of the country. Census 1991 See description above Office for National Nationally Every 10 years As above Free Statistics Core HA New CORE records information on the characteristics CORE website Nationally Updated each Ongoing Free lettings Data of both HA and LA new social housing tenants www.core.ac.uk time a letting or 2008/09 and the homes they rent and buy. A Housing sale is made Association with more than 250 units or 250 bedspaces is required by the Tenant Services Authority to complete CORE logs fully and accurately. Tenant Services The TSA regulates social housing landlords and www.tenantservices Nationally N/A Free Authority (TSA) sets high standards of management across authority.org (Formerly Housing housing association homes and in the future Corporation) Local Authority social homes. . Homes and The HCA will make sure that homes are built in www.homesand Nationally N/A Free Community Agency an economically, socially and environmentally communities.co.uk (HCA) (Formerly sustainable way, as well as promoting good Housing design. It also has a key role in regenerating Corporation) communities and will base its approach on the Government’s regeneration framework – Transforming Places; Changing Lives.
DATA SOURCE DESCRIPTION SOURCE LOCATION COVERAGE FREQUENCY OF NEXT RELEASE SAMPLE COST RELEASE DATE Housing Strategy The HSSA contains 14 sections of Local www.communities. Nationally Annually Generally Free Statistical Appendix Authority statistical information. It is a handy gov.uk available from (HSSA) reference document which brings together data June each year – items from many different housing areas. The 2011 HSSA purpose of the Appendix is to bring together available June statistical information relevant to the 2011 formulation of the Housing Strategy. Land Registry The Land Registry House Price Index is the most www.landregistry.g Postcode, Local Monthly & Quarterly Monthly updated House Price Index accurate independent house price index ov.uk Authority and Quarterly data is free but available. It includes figures at national, above quarterly data regional, county and local authority level. It available for a allows you to obtain lists of average house fee. Contact land prices from 1995 onwards in any area of Registry England and Wales for any range of months. P1(e) Returns P1(e) returns are the primary source of data for Local Authority Local Authority Quarterly ‐ Free statutorily homeless households. The purpose of the P1(e) returns is to collect information on applications, acceptances by priority need groups, households provided with temporary accommodation and households leaving temporary accommodation.. December 2009 The claimant count records the number of National Statistics Local Authority Monthly ‐ Free ONS Claimant people claiming Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) Online / NOMIS and above Count broken down by age, duration and their sought or usual occupation.
APPENDIX IV
GLOSSARY OF TERMS GLOSSARY ABI Annual Business Inquiry.
Affordability A measure of whether households can access and sustain the costs of private sector housing. DCA use two types of affordability: mortgage and rental. Mortgage affordability measures whether households can afford a deposit and a mortgage; rental affordability measures whether a household can afford a private rental. Mortgage affordability is based on conditions set by mortgage lenders ‐ a minimum level of household income and savings. We use a 3 times multiple of gross income. Rental affordability is defined as the rent being less than a proportion of a household’s gross income. We use a 25% level of rental affordability.
Affordable Housing Affordable housing is that provided, with subsidy1, for people who are unable to resolve their housing requirements, in the general housing market because of the relationship between local housing costs and incomes. The definition in PPS3 is:‐
“Affordable housing includes social rented housing and intermediate housing, provided to specified eligible households whose needs are not met by the market” This definition covers housing for social rent and intermediate housing through shared ownership, shared equity and sub‐market rent.
CLG Bedroom Standard2 The standard number of bedrooms allocated to each household in accordance with its age/sex/marital status composition and the relationship of the members to one another. A separate bedroom is allocated to each married couple, any person aged 21 or over, each pair of adolescents aged 10 – 20 of the same sex, and each pair of children under 10. Any unpaired person aged 10 – 20 is paired, if possible with a child under 10 of the same sex, or, if that is not possible, he or she is given a separate bedroom, as is any unpaired child under 10. This standard is then compared with the actual number of bedrooms available for the sole use of the household and the differences are tabulated.
BME Black & Minority Ethnic.
1 This subsidy is not always public subsidy. 2 This definition is taken from the Survey of English Housing, CLG. 1 DCA
Choice Based Lettings (CBL) Choice Based Lettings allows applicants for social housing (and tenants who want to transfer) to apply for vacancies which are advertised widely in the neighbourhood. Applicants can see the full range of available properties and can apply for any home to which they are matched.
CLG Communities and Local Government. CLG has responsibility for local and regional government, housing, planning, fire, regeneration, social exclusion and neighbourhood renewal with the ambition to create sustainable communities for all. Previously known as DETR, DTLR, ODPM and DCLG.
Concealed Household A Concealed Household is someone living within a household wanting to move to their own accommodation and form a separate household (e.g. adult children living with their parents).
CORE The Continuous Recording System (Housing Association and Local Authority Lettings / New Tenants).
DETR Government body superseded by CLG. (See CLG)
Discounted Market Rented New Units utilising the equity from the discounted or free land from the Housing planning process where Housing Associations could build at only development cost and provide, without grant, units which would be available at lower than private rented market cost but above Housing Corporation rent caps.
Existing Household An existing household encompasses the household in its entirety.
HMO House in Multiple Accommodation – A house which is occupied by persons who do not form a single household
Homeless Household A household is accepted as statutorily homeless by the authority if it meets the criteria set out in the Housing Act 1996.
Household The Census definition of a household is:‐ “A household comprises either one person living alone or a group of people (not necessarily related) living at the same address with common housekeeping ‐ that is, sharing at least one meal a day or sharing a living room or sitting room.”
Housing Demand Is the quantity and type / quality of housing which households wish to buy or rent and are able to afford. It therefore takes account of preferences and ability to pay.
Housing Need Refers to households lacking their own housing or living in housing which is inadequate or unsuitable, who are unlikely to be able to meet their needs in the local housing market without some assistance.
2 DCA
Housing Register A register of people waiting for affordable housing. It may have two components: a list for those not currently occupying affordable housing (more properly known as the Housing Register) and a Transfer List for those tenants who wish to move to another affordable home within the same District.
HSSA The Housing Strategy Statistical Appendix.
Implied Numbers The “numbers implied” column inserted in some of the tables is DCA’s assessment of the total numbers to be derived after applying the appropriate weighting factor based on sub area ocation and tenure responses to that sub‐areas household numbers. Where multiple choice is not involved, this will generally equate to the household population of the Local Authority as a whole but some individual questions may not be answered by all respondents, giving a marginally lower total.
Inadequate Housing Housing which is inadequate or unsuitable in meeting the needs of the household, comprising a range of criteria on house condition, size, cost and security of tenure. These criteria are used to assess whether the unsuitability can be resolved by improvements to the dwelling, or whether the household has to move to another home.
Intermediate Housing Housing at prices or rents above those of social rented but below market prices or rents. This includes shared ownership, shared equity and sub‐market renting.
LA Local Authority.
LCHO Low Cost Home Ownership.
LDF Local Development Framework. This is a folder of local development documents that outlines how planning will be managed within a Local Authority area.
NOMIS National On‐line Manpower Information System.
Over Occupation / Over Over occupation / Overcrowding occurs when, using the bedroom occupation standard, there are insufficient bedrooms in the property based on the number of residents and their age/sex/marital status composition. Over occupation is more common in the public sector than the private sector.
ONS Office for National Statistics.
3 DCA
PPS Planning Policy Statement. PPSs are prepared by the government after public consultation to explain statutory provisions and provide guidance to local authorities and others on planning policy and the operation of the planning system.
PPS3
Relets RSL rented accommodation that becomes vacant due to the departure of a previous tenant; therefore the accommodation can be re‐let to another tenant or new applicant on the Housing Register.
Registered Social Landlords A Housing Association or a not‐for‐profit company, registered by the (RSL) Tenants Services Authority (TSA), providing social housing.
Right to Buy (RTB) The Right To Buy Scheme gives eligible council tenants the right to buy their property from their council at a discount. Many RSL tenants have similar rights under the Right To Acquire.
Survey of English Housing (SHE) The Survey of English Housing is a continuous household survey that collects information from nearly 20,000 households about the characteristics of their housing and their attitudes to housing and related issues.
Sheltered Accommodation Sheltered Accommodation is housing which is purpose built for older people with associated facilities and services.
SHG – Social Housing Grant Capital provided by the HCA, or Local Authority, to fully or partially fund RSLs when developing social housing. SHG is paid under s18 of the Housing Act 1996.
SO – Shared Ownership Either newly built or existing properties purchased by a housing provider, which are then sold on a part rent / part buy basis under a shared ownership lease. The shared owner buys a percentage of the property, funded by mortgage and / or savings. The remaining percentage is still owned by the housing provider who charges a rent on it. Purchasers can, in some cases ‘staircase out’ to full ownership.
Transfer A local Authority or RSL tenant who have transferred to another LA or RSL property
Transfer List A list of Local Authority and RSL tenants that have applied for alternative Local Authority housing. Housing Associations may keep their own Transfer Lists and some authorities may combine transfer applicants in one Housing Register.
Under Occupation A household is under‐occupying if more than one spare bedroom is available, using the bedroom standard as a test. Under‐occupation is common in the private sector.
4 DCA