GATESHEAD & NEWCASTLE STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010 CONTENTS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................................................9 1.1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................................9 1.2 UNDERSTANDING THE HOUSING MARKET .........................................................................................................9 1.3 MIGRATION & COMMUTING PATTERNS......................................................................................................... 10 1.4 THE NEWCASTLE AND GATESHEAD MARKET ................................................................................................... 10 1.5 THE ECONOMIC CONTEXT ........................................................................................................................... 11 1.6 POPULATION PROJECTIONS ......................................................................................................................... 12 1.7 FUTURE POPULATION CHANGE..................................................................................................................... 13 1.8 THE ACTIVE HOUSING MARKET.................................................................................................................... 14 1.9 THE CURRENT HOUSING STOCK ................................................................................................................... 15 1.10 MAKING BEST USE OF THE STOCK ................................................................................................................. 17 1.11 THE NEEDS OF SPECIFIC HOUSEHOLD GROUPS................................................................................................ 17 1.12 HOUSEHOLDS WITH SUPPORT NEEDS ............................................................................................................ 17 1.13 THE HOUSING NEEDS OF OLDER PEOPLE ....................................................................................................... 18 1.14 BLACK & MINORITY ETHNIC (BME) HOUSEHOLDS .......................................................................................... 18 1.15 GYPSY AND TRAVELLERS AND TRAVELLING SHOWPEOPLE .................................................................................. 19 1.16 STUDENTS ............................................................................................................................................... 19 1.17 FUTURE HOUSING DEMAND........................................................................................................................ 19 1.18 AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEED AND SUPPLY..................................................................................................... 20 1.19 KEY ISSUES FOR FUTURE STRATEGY AND DELIVERY........................................................................................... 22 1.20 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................................................................... 23 1.21 PROPERTY SIZE TARGETS ............................................................................................................................ 24 2 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................25 2.1 BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT TO THE NEWCASTLE GATESHEAD SHMA................................................................ 25 2.2 PRIMARY DATA COLLECTION ....................................................................................................................... 25 2.3 THE TYNE & WEAR SHMA......................................................................................................................... 25 2.4 WHAT IS A STRATEGIC HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT?.................................................................................. 26 2.5 THE SHMA GUIDANCE .............................................................................................................................. 26 2.6 ENSURING A ROBUST AND CREDIBLE SHMA .................................................................................................. 28 2.7 THE HOUSING MARKET PARTNERSHIP........................................................................................................... 29 2.8 THE NEWCASTLE AND GATESHEAD OFFICER PROJECT TEAM .............................................................................. 30 2.9 THE SHMA REPORT STRUCTURE ................................................................................................................. 30 2.10 DATA SOURCES......................................................................................................................................... 32 2.11 DATA BENCHMARKING............................................................................................................................... 32 2.12 GLOSSARY OF TERMS ................................................................................................................................. 33 3 THE CURRENT LOCAL HOUSING MARKET...............................................................................................34 3.1 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................................... 34 3.2 IDENTIFYING HOUSING MARKET BOUNDARIES ................................................................................................ 34 3.3 THE NORTH EAST REGIONAL CONTEXT .......................................................................................................... 35 3.4 HOUSING MARKET BOUNDARIES IN THE NORTH EAST REGION........................................................................... 36 3.5 MIGRATION PATTERNS............................................................................................................................... 37 3.6 TRAVEL TO WORK PATTERNS....................................................................................................................... 43 3.7 THE NEWCASTLE AND GATESHEAD MARKET ................................................................................................... 44 4 GATESHEAD & NEWCASTLE STRATEGIC CONTEXT..................................................................................45 4.2 THE GATESHEAD AND NEWCASTLE STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP ............................................................................ 45 4.3 HOUSING ALLOCATION............................................................................................................................... 46 4.4 HOMELESSNESS ........................................................................................................................................ 47 4.5 EMPTY PROPERTIES ................................................................................................................................... 49 4.6 SUPPORTING PEOPLE ................................................................................................................................. 49 4.7 THE PRIVATE SECTOR................................................................................................................................. 51 4.8 THE NEEDS OF SPECIFIC HOUSEHOLD GROUPS................................................................................................ 51 4.9 REGENERATION......................................................................................................................................... 53 2 Gateshead & Newcastle Strategic Housing Market Assessment ‐ 2010 5 DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT & FORECASTS ...............................................................................................55 5.1 INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................................................... 55 5.2 THE DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE (1999‐2009).............................................................................................. 55 5.3 THE FUTURE POPULATION (2008‐2033)...................................................................................................... 58 5.4 NEWCASTLE POPULATION CHANGE ............................................................................................................... 58 5.5 GATESHEAD POPULATION CHANGE............................................................................................................... 60 5.6 IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION CHANGE......................................................................................................... 62 5.7 HOUSEHOLD PROFILES (1991 – 2001)......................................................................................................... 62 5.8 FORECAST CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLDS............................................................................................................. 66 5.9 KEY POINTS.............................................................................................................................................. 67 6 ECONOMIC DRIVERS OF DEMAND.........................................................................................................68 6.1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................