Conditions for Increased Freight Flows in the Baltic Sea Area
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Conditions for increased freight flows in the Baltic Sea area Authors: Olivia Dahlholm, Hannes Englesson, Patrik Fridh, Pernilla Hyllenius Mattison Johan Kerttu & Viktor Lindqvist, Trivector Traffic Publication date: 2021-05-31 Conditions for increased freight flows in the Baltic Sea area By Olivia Dahlholm, Hannes Englesson, Patrik Fridh, Pernilla Hyllenius Mattison, Johan Kerttu & Viktor Lindqvist, Trivector Traffic Copyright: Reproduction of this publication in whole or in part must include the customary bibliographic citation, including author attribution, report title, etc. Published by: Ahmed Alaeddine, Region Örebro County The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of BALTIC LOOP partnership and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Union. Conditions for increased freight flows in the May/2021 Baltic Sea area Table of contents 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 5 2. Analysis summary ......................................................................................................... 7 3. Background and conditions ......................................................................................... 10 Trade, traffic, and freight flows ............................................................................................ 16 Mode share per product group ............................................................................................ 18 Future freight flows .............................................................................................................. 25 Overall analysis ..................................................................................................................... 26 4. Challenges with increased freight flow - current situation and bottlenecks .................. 28 Compilation of bottlenecks .................................................................................................. 28 Bottlenecks linked to geographical location ........................................................................ 32 Oslo-Örebro-Stockholm: Common to all three corridors ..................................................... 33 The Northern Corridor: Stockholm-Helsinki-St. Petersburg ................................................. 42 The Middle corridor: Stockholm-Tallinn-St. Petersburg ...................................................... 49 The Southern Corridor: Stockholm-Riga-St. Petersburg ...................................................... 54 5. Proposals for measures for increased capacity............................................................. 63 General measures ................................................................................................................. 63 Measures linked to geographical location ........................................................................... 65 Measures along the Oslo-Örebro-Stockholm corridor ......................................................... 67 Measures along the Northern corridor: Stockholm-Helsinki-St. Petersburg ....................... 71 Measures along the Middle corridor: Stockholm-Tallinn-St. Petersburg ............................ 75 The Southern corridor: Stockholm-Riga-St. Petersburg ....................................................... 79 Impact assessment of proposed measures .......................................................................... 83 1 www.balticloop.eu Conditions for increased freight flows in the May/2021 Baltic Sea area 6. Recommendations going forward ................................................................................ 89 Appendix 1. Individual answers from workshops regarding impact assessment of action proposals ........................................................................................................................ 91 References ...................................................................................................................... 96 List of tables Table 1 Trivector's assessment of the potential of proposed measures to reduce 8 identified bottlenecks. Table 2 Description of identified bottlenecks within the corridor Oslo-Örebro- 36 Stockholm. Table 3 Description of identified bottlenecks within the corridor Stockholm- 45 Helsinki-Saint Petersburg. Table 4 Description of identified bottlenecks within the corridor Stockholm- 52 Tallinn-Saint Petersburg. Table 5 Description of identified bottlenecks within the corridor Stockholm-Riga- 58 Saint Petersburg. Table 6 Description of identified measures within the corridor Oslo-Örebro- 68 Stockholm. Table 7 Description of identified measures within the Stockholm-Helsinki-St. 73 Petersburg corridor. Table 8 Description of identified measures within the corridor Oslo-Örebro-St. 77 Petersburg. Table 9 Description of identified measures within the corridor Stockholm-Riga- 81 St. Petersburg. Table 10 The result of the impact assessment made during the workshop 85 in May 2021. 2 www.balticloop.eu Conditions for increased freight flows in the May/2021 Baltic Sea area List of figures Figure 1 Illustration of the studied corridors within Baltic Loop. .............................................. 6 Figure 2 TEN-T's main network. Source: Mälardalsrådet, 2020. ............................................. 11 Figure 3 North Sea-Baltic main corridor. Source: Mälardalsrådet, 2019. ................................ 13 Figure 4 Corridors within the Belt and Road Initiative (OECD, 2018). ..................................... 15 Figure 5 Swedish exports to the countries around the Baltic Sea (1000 tonnes). Source: Statistics Sweden's foreign trade statistics. ............................................................................. 17 Figure 6 Swedish imports from the countries around the Baltic Sea (1,000 tonnes). Source: Statistics Sweden's foreign trade statistics. ............................................................................. 17 Figure 7 Model-based vehicle shares per product group for incoming goods flows to the Stockholm-Mälar region (tonnes). Source: Samgods. ............................................................. 19 Figure 8 Model-based vehicle shares per product group for outgoing goods flows from the Stockholm-Mälar region (tonnes). Source: Samgods. ............................................................. 19 Figure 9 Maritime transports by product group between Sweden and Finland in 2019. Source: https://www.stat.fi/ .................................................................................................... 20 Figure 10 Vehicle shares per commodity group for freight transport by rail and road in Latvia in 2019. Source: https://data.stat.gov.lv/ ................................................................................ 21 Figure 11 Maritime transport: freight transport per product group through ports, procent of the total cargo turnover per port. Source: hhtps://data.stat.gov.lv/ ...................................... 22 Figure 12 Mode share per product group for feright transport via railwai and road transport in Estonia 2019. Source: hhtp://andmebaas.stat.ee/ .............................................................. 23 Figure 13 Maritime transport: freight transport per product group through Estonian ports 2019. Source: hhtp://andmebaas.stat.ee/ .............................................................................. 24 Figure 14 Exports and imports 2016 and 2040 according to REF18 & OECD (tonnes per year). Source: Forecast for freight transport 2040 - The Swedish Transport Administration's Basic Forecasts 2020. Publication number: 2020: 125 ..................................................................... 26 Figure 15 The most common causes of delays in the corridors. Source: Wahlström & Chen (2020). ...................................................................................................................................... 28 Figure 16 Identified bottlenecks in the Oslo-Saint Petersburg corridor .................................. 32 Figure 17 All corridors within the route Oslo-St. Petersburg. .................................................. 33 Figure 18 Identified bottlenecks within the corridor Oslo-Örebro-Stockholm. ...................... 35 3 www.balticloop.eu Conditions for increased freight flows in the May/2021 Baltic Sea area Figure 19 Swedish Transport Administration 2021 (cropped and enlarged). Red lines mean high capacity utilization and risk of disruption. ....................................................................... 39 Figure 20 Capacity in the railway network in peak traffic 2040 (Sweco 2019)........................ 41 Figure 21 Illustration of the northern corridor: Oslo-Örebro-Stockholm-Helsinki-Saint Petersburg. ............................................................................................................................... 42 Figure 22 Identified bottlenecks within the corridor Stockholm-Helsinki-Saint Petersburg. .. 44 Figure 23 Vulnerability and congestion along the E18 in Finland. Source: Turku University of Applied Sciences. ...................................................................................................................... 48 Figure 24 Illustration of the Middle corridor: Oslo-Örebro-Stockholm - Tallinn - Saint Petersburg ................................................................................................................................ 49 Figure 25 Identified bottlenecks within the corridor Stockholm-Tallinn-Saint