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SANRAL ROAD NETWORK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

By Dumi Nkabinde 30 August 2019 2 PRESENTATION OUTLINE

• RSA Roads, Why care for the asset • SANRAL Network Condition • Road Asset Management System by SANRAL • SANRAL Budget / Projects • Future Transport

3 4 SA ROAD NETWORK - 2018

Authority Paved Gravel Total

SANRAL 22 214 0 22 214

Provinces - 9 46 548 226 273 272 821

Metros - 8 51 682 14 461 66 143

Municipalities 37 680 219 223 256 903 Total 158 124 459 957 618 081

Un-Proclaimed (Estimate) 131 919 131 919

Estimated Total 158 124 591 876 750 000

Un-Proclaimed Roads = Public roads not formally gazetted by any Authority 5 SOUTH AFRICAN ROAD USE Freight flow on road and rail (10th State of Logistics Survey 2014)

Also important to note that of the person trips recorded in National Household Travel Survey, 2013, by transport modes are as follow: Mode Choice Factor Percentage  Minibus taxi’s (41.6%)  Private Vehicles (23.4%) Travel time 32.6  Walking (18.5%) – Along road corridors Travel Cost 26.1  busses (10.2%) Flexibility 9.2  Trains (4.4%)  Other (1.9%) Other 32.1 2017 figures indicated similar trend.

Roads account for 87.9% of Freight and 93.7% of Person Trips 6 SA ROAD CONGESTION - 2017

Cape Town Most Congested – Congestion Increasing in All Cities SA ROAD CONDITION - PAVED (2013)

Type Year V-Good Good Fair Poor V-Poor Length (km) 2013 8,104 18,016 25,064 13,946 4,355 % 2013 11.66% 25.93% 36.07% 20.07% 6.27%

International norm is 10% to be in poor to very poor condition for well-maintained paved road network 8 Paved Network VCI Summary 2013

WESTERN CAPE

NORTH WEST

NORTHERN CAPE Very Poor (km) Poor (km) Fair (km) KWAZULU NATAL Good (km) Authority Very Good (km) FREESTATE

EASTERN CAPE

SANRAL

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of Network SOUTH AFRICAN PAVEMENT DESIGN

Road Deterioration due to Traffic Loading & Environment 100 Very Good Preventative Maintenance Actions

80 Good

Fair 60 Moisture Ingress

40 Poor

No Maintenance

Road Road Condition 20 Very Poor (Typically Designed for Traffic Expected over 20-30 Years) 0 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 Year SA Pavement Design Requires Performance of Preventative Maintenance to achieve design life – Not Zero Maintenance Design 10 SOUTH AFRICAN PAVEMENT DESIGN

South Africa Northern Hemisphere Increased Number of Heavy Axles Repetitions over 20-30 year Design Life Waterproof Layer

(10 to 40 mm) (100 to 400 mm)

G1

Local Street R5m/km Farm To Market R13m/km

National Road Interstate Road R20m to R140m/km South African Pavement Design 40-60% cheaper by using natural gravels, but these natural gravels more sensitive to moisture ingress - not zero maintenance design. Very short path for crack to propagate through thin surfacing – making preventative maintenance strategy crucial as at SANRAL. New Road CONSTRUCTON Cost per km

Difference due to terrain (Flat, Rolling, Mountainous), Number of Interchanges, Number of Trucks, Climate, etc. 12 Our Pavements are seriously getting old

As seen 76% of paved network older than original 20 year design life, resulting in a high risk for accelerated deterioration under poor preventative maintenance regime as with most road authorities in . 13 Why is it Happening – Axle Loads

RSA designed for 8.2 ton axle load, Now its 9 ton SADC accord signed 2015 allows 10 ton.  Overstressing of the weaker layers subgrades Economic Growth Just-in-time (small frequent loads) => no warehouse costs

Half-axle tyre loads

Wearing course Surfacing

Base layer Structural layers Decreasing •High shear stress Layer Subbase layer •“Large” strains Strength Upper selected Subgrade subgrade •Low shear stress Lower selected •Small strains subgrade

In situ subgrade 14 Why is it Happening – Tyre Pressure

New Tyre Technology

Increased Tyre Pressure to Reduce Contact Area Which results in reduce Rolling Resistance and 30% decrease in Fuel Consumption Half-axle tyre loads Modern truck tyres are 30% more fuel efficient, but results in 30% + increase in damage to pavement surface layers (especially when overloaded and under or over inflated) Wearing course Surfacing Decreasing Base layer Structural layers Layer •High shear stress Strength Subbase layer •“Large” strains

Upper selected Subgrade subgrade •Low shear stress Lower selected •Small strains subgrade

In situ subgrade 15 Where is it Happening – Rainfall Zones

BEIRA CHIPINGE FRANCISTOWN

WINDHOEK MESSINA

WALVISBAY TZANEEN GABORONE

PRETORIA ZEERUST JOHANNESBURG MAPUTO KLERKSDORP KEETMANSHOOP VOLKSRUST

BLOEMFONTEIN LADYSMITH

WEPENER DURBAN ROUXVILLE PORT SHEPSTONE

SOMERSET CERES WEST Wet (>1000 mm/yr) OUDTSHOORN EAST LONDON CAPE TOWN Moderate (500 – 1000) MOSSEL BAY Dry (< 500 mm/yr)

Wetter areas have higher moisture ingress risk if no preventative maintenance. Wetter areas have more intense agriculture activity, more traffic. KZN traffic 16X that of NCP 16 Why is it Happening – Maintenance Strategy

Repair Cost = 1X /km Repair Cost = 6X /km (Ratio 1:6) 100 Very Good

80 Good Repair Cost = 18X /km 60 Fair (Ratio 1:18)

3-5 Years 40 Poor

Road Road Condition 20 Very Poor 5-8 Years 0 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 Year Preventative maintenance first strategy (SANRAL) allocates budget first or all 1X, then 6X and finally what remains to 18X. Most other authorities follow worst first strategy and allocates budget first or all 18X, then 6X and finally what remains to 1X. 17 What Is The Price We Pay – Road User

Road User Cost is up to 90% of Total Life Cycle Transportation Cost Road User Cost – Fuel, Oil, Tyres, Maintenance, Depreciation, Accidents, Time, Cargo Damage Distance Travel in 1 hour: Very Good = 100km vs Very Poor = 20 to 25 km 18 What Is The Price We Pay – Road User

2.5

2

1.5 Please Note: 1 Costs exclude 6th Logistics Survey -2009 fuel, travel time,

0.5 cargo damage, SANRAL Toll Roads etc components

0 Vehicle additional repair and maintenance costs [R/km] costs maintenance and repair additional Vehicle 1 2 3 4 5 Road Roughness [m/km] 19

SANRAL NETWORK CONDITION 20 SANRAL ROAD NETWORK (km) - 2018

Description Non Toll Agency PPP Total (Fiscus) Toll Dual 817 557 519 1 893 Carriageway

4-Lane 30 302 231 562 Undivided

2-Lane 18 414 823 521 19 758 Single

Total 19 262 1 681 1 271 22 214 % of SANRAL Network 87% 7% 6%

The 2,952 km Toll network - 13 % of SANRAL network, 0.5 % of the total 21 SANRAL PAVEMENT CONDITION - 2018

Type Year V-Good Good Fair Poor V-Poor Length (km) 2018 3,609 10,730 7,001 887 13 % 2018 16.3% 48.3% 31.5% 4.0% 0.1% 22 SANRAL PAVEMENT CONDITION TREND

Currently 900 km or 4.1% of SANRAL roads are in poor to very poor surface condition, which are well within the international norm of 10% for well-maintained network. The Average OCI of 74, is also above international norm of 70. This is largely due to the preventative maintenance first strategy followed by SANRAL, the impact of all preventative maintenance on roads incorporated since 2012 is evident in 2016 & 2017 condition results. The condition of remainder of strategic and primary roads under provincial administration is substantially worse (36.2% in poor to very poor), and needs to be addressed as matter of priority due to negative impact on South African economy. 23 SANRAL AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC

More than 70 % of SANRAL network has less than 5000 vpd – “Below Toll Threshold” – Thus reliant on National Treasury allocations. 30 % Toll viable of which 13 % is already tolled. 24 SANRAL NETWORK VEHICLE KILOMETRE TRAVEL

SANRAL network only 3.6% of length, but carries 34.1% of vehicle kilometres. Also carries 70% of the long distance road freight traffic (43% of total freight). 25

Road Asset Management System by SANRAL 26 Typical Life Cycle of Most Roads !

New Road - Deterioration over time due to Traffic Loading & Environment

NO Preventative Maintenance - Crack Sealing /Resealing - Cleaning Drainage Structures - Cutting of Grass 27 What Is The Solution – Automatic Pothole Patching?

Nooooooo…. Potholes are the symptom not the cause… 28 Typical Life Cycle of SANRAL Roads !

SANRAL Routine Maintenance Cost - Crack Sealing, Cleaning Drainage Structures, Cutting of Grass - R 8.50 m2 / year

SANRAL Reseal Cost - – R250 m2 / 10 year

SANRAL Pothole Repair Cost -R 700 – R25 000 / m2

-SANRAL In-situ Recycle -R 250 – R500 / m2 29 Asset Management = Planning ) 2

Optimal Zone

At SANRAL = RR8.50 6.50 / m2 per year Routine Maintenance Costs Per Year (R/m Year Per Costs Maintenance Routine

Degree of Planning

Preventative Maintenance Reactive Maintenance Total Maintenance 30 Asset Management System Building Blocks/Puzzle Pieces of AMS

Funding Policy/ People Procedures

Data Hardware Software

• Policy/Procedures – Principles/Rules to Guide Decisions and achieve rational outcomes – what, where, when, how. • Funding – Financial resources for operation and results implementation. • People - People make decisions, the rest are just to support the process. • Hardware – Road Survey Equipment + IT Infrastructure. • Software – Computer based data Analysis and Storage Tools. • Data – Knowing what you have, its condition and performance Trend. 31 Road Asset Management System - Success Funding

Policy/ People Procedures

Hardware Data

Software • For asset management to be successful all the “pieces of the puzzle” need to be in place in a “balanced equilibrium” • It does not help you have the most advance survey vehicle but no means to effectively store and analyse the data, or • Have the most sophisticate software, but the quality of your data is suspect ! • Without Funding and People – Nothing will happen !!! 32 AMS Hardware/Condition Data: SANRAL

Various condition parameters collected using SANRAL Road Survey Vehicles: • Standardized procedures (COTO TMH 13) • Roughness – how bumpy is the road – speed, wear, etc • Rut Depth – water pond on surface - safety • Macro Texture – assist vehicle tire to drain water – safety, noise • Cracking – how much water will get in - deterioration • Deflection – remaining structural life of pavement • Alignment (DGPS) – Speed, Fuel Consumption, etc • ROW Video – Road Signs, Section Measurements, etc • Surveys at between 75 to 100 km/h

2D/3D Surface Images 33 AMS Condition Data - Bridges

• Manual Visual Assessments (DER) • Bridge condition is visually assessed through a standardized procedure (COTO TMH 19) by certified inspectors to determine the Degree, Extent and Relevancy of each defect. • Bridge repairs are prioritised according to severity and Relevancy of defects • 3 to 5 year cycle • 9874 Bridges & Major Culverts

0 34 AMS Condition Data : Traffic Data

• Traffic Event Logger (TEL) . Standardized procedures (COTO TMH 3, 8, 14) . Inductive Loop Based Technology (1000) . + Piezo (200) . + WIM (45) . Cluster Monitoring . 1 to 3 year for Secondary Stations

36 AMS Software - Data Management

Unit Costs Roughness Rut Depth Traffic Macro Texture Cracking Ravelling Video

Surface Friction Centralised DGPS Database

Structural Strength Bridge 37 AMS Software - Life Cycle Modelling

Road Deterioration & Maintenance Effects Condition Surveys

Dynamic Segmentation Road User Effects Uniform Sections

Centralised Database

Economic Analysis & Optimisation 38 HDM-4 Road Network Inputs 129 Variables 39 SANRAL AMS Budgeting Procedure

Instrumental Data Traffic Bridge Inspections

RUE RUE

PMS BMS RDME CBA BDME CBA

Priority Priority List List Pavement Management System Bridge Management System

Projected Total Volume (Sites) No. America Europe Asia-Pacific Government Total Sm. Systems 12,000 6,600 2,100 3,000 23,700 Med. Systems 6,200 3100 560 950 10,810 Lg. Systems 2,650 1850 180 400 5,080 Total 20,850 11,550 2,840 4,350 39,590

Projected Total Revenue (billions of $) No. America Europe Asia-Pacific Government Total Sm. Systems $1.12 $0.62 $0.20 $0.28 $2.21 Med. Systems $1.59 $0.80 $0.14 $0.24 $2.78 Lg. SystemsSuper $1.80 Project $1.26 $0.12 List $0.27 $3.46 Total $4.52 $2.67 $0.46 $0.80 $8.45

Budget Optimisation (forward)

Projected Total Volume (Sites) Projected Total Volume (Sites) Projected Total Volume (Sites) Projected Total Volume (Sites) No. America Europe Asia-Pacific Government Total No. America Europe Asia-Pacific Government Total No. America Europe Asia-Pacific Government Total No. America Europe Asia-Pacific Government Total Sm. Systems 12,000 6,600 2,100 3,000 23,700 Sm. Systems 12,000 6,600 2,100 3,000 23,700 Sm. Systems 12,000 6,600 2,100 3,000 23,700 Sm. Systems 12,000 6,600 2,100 3,000 23,700 Med. Systems 6,200 3100 560 950 10,810 Med. Systems 6,200 3100 560 950 10,810 Med. Systems 6,200 3100 560 950 10,810 Med. Systems 6,200 3100 560 950 10,810 Lg. Systems 2,650 1850 180 400 5,080 Lg. Systems 2,650 1850 180 400 5,080 Lg. Systems 2,650 1850 180 400 5,080 Lg. Systems 2,650 1850 180 400 5,080 Total 20,850 11,550 2,840 4,350 39,590 Total 20,850 11,550 2,840 4,350 39,590 Total 20,850 11,550 2,840 4,350 39,590 Total 20,850 11,550 2,840 4,350 39,590

Projected Total Revenue (billions of $) Projected Total Revenue (billions of $) Projected Total Revenue (billions of $) Projected Total Revenue (billions of $) No. America Europe Asia-Pacific Government Total No. America Europe Asia-Pacific Government Total No. America Europe Asia-Pacific Government Total No. America Europe Asia-Pacific Government Total Sm. SystemsEastern $1.12 $0.62 $0.20 $0.28 $2.21 Sm.Northern Systems $1.12 $0.62 $0.20 $0.28 $2.21 Sm.Southern Systems $1.12 $0.62 $0.20 $0.28 $2.21 Sm. SystemsWestern $1.12 $0.62 $0.20 $0.28 $2.21 Med. Systems $1.59 $0.80 $0.14 $0.24 $2.78 Med. Systems $1.59 $0.80 $0.14 $0.24 $2.78 Med. Systems $1.59 $0.80 $0.14 $0.24 $2.78 Med. Systems $1.59 $0.80 $0.14 $0.24 $2.78 Lg. Systems $1.80 $1.26 $0.12 $0.27 $3.46 Lg. Systems $1.80 $1.26 $0.12 $0.27 $3.46 Lg. Systems $1.80 $1.26 $0.12 $0.27 $3.46 Lg. Systems $1.80 $1.26 $0.12 $0.27 $3.46 Total $4.52 $2.67 $0.46 $0.80 $8.45 Total $4.52 $2.67 $0.46 $0.80 $8.45 Total $4.52 $2.67 $0.46 $0.80 $8.45 Total $4.52 $2.67 $0.46 $0.80 $8.45

Programming Programming Programming Programming

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SANRAL BUDGET / PROJECTS 43 Non Toll Budget Allocation

As noticed current budget kilometre levels are way below peak allocations during the 1970’s and mid 1980’s when most national road network construction occurred. 44 Major Cost Drivers

Bitumen represents anything from 5 % to 60 % of the cost of a maintenance activity, as a result the length of road that can be maintained per year for every Rand is impacted by these bitumen price fluctuations that is beyond control of SANRAL. 45 Major Cost Drivers

Considering the expenditure on the SANRAL network, it is obvious that the length of road that can be maintained per year for every Rand has been decreasing over time at rates much higher than what the CPI indicates. 46 SANRAL Toll Funding Benefits

SANRAL Expenditure 10 Year Window R 20000 000 Non Toll Total over 10 Year Period = R86.7 bn Toll Total over 10 Year Period = .3 bn R 18000 000

R 16000 000

R 14000 000

R 12000 000

R 10000 000

R 8000 000 Rand (million) Rand

R 6000 000

R 4000 000

R 2000 000

R 0 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 Non Toll R 3521 929 R 4159 964 R 5714 645 R 6844 501 R 8651 596 R 9728 055 R 10497 184 R 11916 947 R 12560 688 R 13490 486 Toll R 1162 725 R 6618 783 R 8813 922 R 8250 146 R 6708 839 R 3753 395 R 4327 181 R 3635 061 R 5787 414 R 4827 769 Total R 4684 654 R 10778 747 R 14528 567 R 15094 647 R 15360 435 R 13481 450 R 14849 365 R 15577 008 R 18373 102 R 18343 255 Financial Year

Enabled delivery of much needed infrastructure sooner and faster with associated Economic and Road User Benefits Economic Development Follows Road Investment

Umhlanga 1980 Economic Development Follows Road Investment

Umhlanga 1987 Umhlanga 2018 50 SANRAL Projects over MTEF

MTEF 363 Projects R64.7 billion 51 SANRAL Key Projects: Status

Initial Capital Costs Project Current Status (R’000 2014R) GFIP Phase 2 (New Routes) R 25 768 840 Nothing - Not declared national roads (Gauteng)

GFIP Phase 3 (Upgrades) R 17 655 160 Nothing - Not declared national roads (Gauteng)

R300 Cape Town Ring Road R 4 861 600 Nothing - Extensions not declared national roads Toll Declaration set aside, cannot proceed until funding is / Winelands R 9 316 100 resolved N2 Botrivier to Port Elizabeth R 11 272 540 Basic Planning, cannot proceed until funding is resolved / EIA Construction funded by Fiscus, 1 Bridge Awarded, 1 in Tender N2 Wild Coast (Ndwalane to Mtamvuna River) Adjudication, Haul Road Construction 98% Completed, Road R 7 578 656 (SIP 3) Detail design in Progress, Toll Declaration for Operations Required by National Treasury N2 Durban South (Prospecton) to North R 7 847 000 Detail design, cannot proceed until funding is resolved / EIA (Umdloti) N2 to Ermelo R 7 284 140 Detail Design, cannot proceed until funding is resolved / EIA Pietermaritzburg (Twickenham) to Durban R 15 777 205 Detail design, cannot proceed until funding is resolved / EIA (EB Cloete) (SIP 2) N3 De Beers replaced with New Van Reenen Development. N3 De Beers (SIP 2) R 5 500 000 Complex Concession Amendments Required to implement Pampoen Nek Construction Started (Non Toll) due to ROD /PWV3 extension Pampoen nek R 1 716 900 Expiring Johannesburg to Klerksdorp R 2 731 700 Basic Planning, cannot proceed until funding is resolved / EIA

N12 Benoni to Witbank R 811 840 Basic Planning, cannot proceed until funding is resolved / EIA

R72/N2 Port Elizabeth to East London R 6 301 200 Detail Design, Phased Construction Started (Non Toll) Detail Design, Phased Construction Started in Limpopo and Moloto Road (SIP 1) R 3 902 176 Mpumalanga (Non Toll), Gauteng Part not declared national road

Note: Most of these key capacity expansion projects (R128 bn) were previously planned to occur through toll financing, if no longer possible, then SANRAL will require additional funding from National Treasury to enable implementation. 52 SANRAL Key Projects 53 SANRAL Budget Requirement

MTEF Basic + Strengthening + Expansion Requirement vs Allocation R 40000 000

R 35000 000

R 30000 000

R 25000 000

R 20000 000

R 15000 000 2018 Rands (Million) Rands2018 R 10000 000

R 5000 000

R 0 2018/19 - Need 2018/19 - 2019/20 - Need 2019/20 - 2020/21 - Need 2020/21 - 2021/20 - Need Allocation Allocation Allocation Year

Cost Centres Routine Maintenance Periodic Maintenance Strengthening Strengthening Backlog Expansion

Description 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Funding Allocation R 15 119 097 R 18 754 990 R 19 786 040 R 20 874 272 MTEF Basic R 22 292 719 R 22 524 211 R 22 755 704 R 22 987 196 MTEF Basic + Backlog R 22 292 720 R 22 524 212 R 22 755 705 R 22 987 197 MTEF Basic + Backlog + Expansion R 34 185 008 R 34 416 501 R 34 647 993 R 34 879 485

The current projected MTEF allocations are not sufficient to enable SANRAL to sustain the network, or address the strengthening backlog and capacity expansion requirements of the current network under its jurisdiction. To address the basic requirements, strengthening backlog as well as expansion requirement of its current network SANRAL will require minimum of .2 billion in 2018/19 and thereafter for 9 years, should the option of toll funding no longer be available (provided SANRAL network length remains unchanged). 54 FUTURE - ROADS FUNDING

• Insufficient • Current sources of funding – Fiscus (Fuel Levy/License) or Tolls • Resistance to Tolls, what other option then for funding ? • Old (11 L/100km), New (6 L/100km), Hybrid (2 L/100km), Electric (0 L/100km) ? • Old (/100km), New (R20/100km), Hybrid (R6.7/100km), Electric (R0/100km) • Older vehicles (Poor) subsidising New vehicles (Rich)

16 000 000

14 000 000

12 000 000

10 000 000

8 000 000 TOTALS

6 000 000

4 000 000

2 000 000

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YEAR Petrol ('000) (-0,7%) Diesel ('000) Total Vehicles (32,9%)

Need to Find Long Term Funding Solution – GPS Usage Based ? 55

Future Transport that SANRAL must consider 56 FUTURE - ITS

• Implemented on most Durban & PMB, Gauteng /Cape Town Freeways: • Dissemination of information to road users on road: • VMS • Traffic broadcasts • Social media • Clearing/Managing incidents: • Incident management vehicles • Making it safe • Provide first line paramedic support • Improve incident detection to clearance timeline

Maximise Efficiency of What We Have 57 FUTURE WIM USE

• Overload Control • Old – Screeners at Static Weigh Bridges • 50 to 100 km impact radius • Construction/Operational Costs • Human Factor • Future – WIM-Enforcement • Direct Weight Enforcement integrate with Average Speed over Distance (ASOD) – 250+ Installations • Been trialled over past 5 years • Awaiting National Regulator Compulsory Standards Type Approval for ASOD and WIM-E • End 2018 • Realtime Integration to SANRAL Central Operations Centre • Realtime Tracking of Load Movements Country Wide (OD) • Direct Enforcement (Speed/Load) • Insurance Fraud • Security Applications • Abnormal Permits Enforcement • Industry Self Regulation Verification

57 (Not to scale) 58 FUTURE – PERSONAL ROAD TRANSPORT

• Autonomous Vehicles / Mobility as a Service (Maas) Autonomous Vehicles Mobility as a Service (Maas)  2025 – Level 4 (option for override)  The provision of transport as a flexible, personalised on- demand service that integrates all types of mobility  Benefits: opportunities and presents them to the user in a  Accident Reduction completely integrated manner to enable them to get  Closer following distances - increasing capacity of existing roadways from A to B as easily as possible.  Intersection Efficiency  Already now (Uber, Google Waze) but real change  No road signs / lane markings /safety barriers - with autonomous vehicles ! Dynamic lanes that can shift direction  Benefits:  Significant parking reduction (23 hours)  Private Vehicle Ownership Reduction  Mobility for All (No Driver Licence)  Significant parking reduction  Distance to work - Increase  Tracking user demand in real time and optimising demand dynamically with available capacity  Dynamic pricing to encourage users to avoid peak time services and spread demand

59 FUTURE – PERSONAL ROAD TRANSPORT

60 FUTURE – SMART ROADS

Electric Charging Lanes ? Modular Pre Cast Units ?

Electric Trucks ? 61 FUTURE – NEW TRANSPORT MODES

• Hyperloop - Hyperloop is a new way to move people and things at airline speeds for the price of a bus ticket. It's on-demand, energy-efficient and safe. Think: broadband for transportation.

Needs continuous Right of Way – Road Reserves What impact will this have on ROAD based transport modes 62

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