Unknown Territory – Uncertainty in a transformative process of political practice The Remunicipalisation of the Energy Distribution Grids in Hamburg, Germany M.Sc. Thesis Environmental Policy Group, Wageningen University Martin Bosak M.Sc. Climate Studies Student number: 891124-105-040 Contact:
[email protected] Course code: ENP-80436 Thesis supervisor: Ingrid Boas Second Reader: Kris van Koppen Submission: 12.06.2017 Wageningen University i MSc. Thesis Environmental Policy Group Abstract Uncertainty is an omnipresent phenomenon that challenges political decision-making in face of complex problems. With regard to the looming threat of climate change, uncertainty seems to paralyse political action, since decision-makers appear to be overwhelmed by the complexity of the problem and find themselves trapped in an ingenuity gap. In order to overcome this ingenuity gap and the general cognitive dissonance in face of climate change, this work emphasises the need to understand the role functioning of uncertainty within transformative political processes. By examining the transformative process of the remunicipalisation of energy distribution grids in Hamburg, Germany, this thesis goes beyond the conceptual level and seeks to determine the role and functioning of uncertainty in a real world process of political practice. In order to reveal the presumed causal inference of uncertainty, explaining-outcome process-tracing is applied as a methodological framework in combination with an interpretative approach to analyse the empirical data of 13 qualitative interviews. In the empirical analysis it was possible to establish uncertainty as the causal mechanism in the remunicipalisation process in Hamburg, determining a minimally sufficient explanation for how uncertainty affected the outcome of this process.