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Msc. Thesis Environmental Policy Group Unknown Territory – Uncertainty in a transformative process of political practice The Remunicipalisation of the Energy Distribution Grids in Hamburg, Germany M.Sc. Thesis Environmental Policy Group, Wageningen University Martin Bosak M.Sc. Climate Studies Student number: 891124-105-040 Contact: [email protected] Course code: ENP-80436 Thesis supervisor: Ingrid Boas Second Reader: Kris van Koppen Submission: 12.06.2017 Wageningen University i MSc. Thesis Environmental Policy Group Abstract Uncertainty is an omnipresent phenomenon that challenges political decision-making in face of complex problems. With regard to the looming threat of climate change, uncertainty seems to paralyse political action, since decision-makers appear to be overwhelmed by the complexity of the problem and find themselves trapped in an ingenuity gap. In order to overcome this ingenuity gap and the general cognitive dissonance in face of climate change, this work emphasises the need to understand the role functioning of uncertainty within transformative political processes. By examining the transformative process of the remunicipalisation of energy distribution grids in Hamburg, Germany, this thesis goes beyond the conceptual level and seeks to determine the role and functioning of uncertainty in a real world process of political practice. In order to reveal the presumed causal inference of uncertainty, explaining-outcome process-tracing is applied as a methodological framework in combination with an interpretative approach to analyse the empirical data of 13 qualitative interviews. In the empirical analysis it was possible to establish uncertainty as the causal mechanism in the remunicipalisation process in Hamburg, determining a minimally sufficient explanation for how uncertainty affected the outcome of this process. The identified findings on uncertainty confirm that uncertainties are inherent to transformative processes and cannot be avoided. This makes it necessary to ‘embrace uncertainty’ and perceive it as a mode for change that encourages the taking of decisions and should not be perceived as an enemy to decision-making or climate science. Wageningen University ii MSc. Thesis Environmental Policy Group Contents 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... - 1 - 1.1 Research objective and research question ................................................................... - 3 - 1.2 How to read this report ................................................................................................ - 4 - 2 The academic notion of uncertainty ............................................................................... - 5 - 2.1 Quantifiable uncertainty and its limitations ................................................................ - 6 - 2.2 Qualitative uncertainty ................................................................................................ - 8 - 2.3 The uncertainty concept at the climate science policy interface ............................... - 12 - 2.4 Embracing uncertainty for effective climate policy action ....................................... - 18 - 2.5 Uncertainty – a mode for change .............................................................................. - 20 - 3 Method ............................................................................................................................. - 22 - 3.1 Process-Tracing ......................................................................................................... - 22 - 3.2 Explaining-outcome process-tracing ......................................................................... - 26 - 3.3 Data gathering ........................................................................................................... - 28 - 3.4 Data Analysis ............................................................................................................ - 32 - 4 The Energy Transition and the Remunicipalisation Process in Hamburg ............... - 34 - 4.1 Energy distribution grids and regulations in Germany ............................................. - 34 - 4.2 The German Energy Transition (Energiewende) and its link to the Remunicipalisation in Hamburg ...................................................................................................................... - 37 - 4.3 The Remunicipalisation of energy distribution grids in Hamburg ............................ - 41 - 4.3.1 Phase I (June 2010 – September 2013) .............................................................. - 43 - 4.3.2 Phase II (September 2013 – December 2016) .................................................... - 47 - 4.3.3 Phase III (from December 2016) ........................................................................ - 50 - 5 The notion of uncertainty in a process of political practice ....................................... - 51 - 5.1 Hypothesising the causal-mechanism of uncertainty ................................................ - 51 - 5.2 Findings on uncertainty in the remunicipalisation process ....................................... - 56 - 5.2.1 Uncertainty in Phase I ........................................................................................ - 62 - Wageningen University iii MSc. Thesis Environmental Policy Group 5.2.2 Uncertainty in Phase II ....................................................................................... - 70 - 5.2.3 Uncertainty in Phase III ...................................................................................... - 76 - 5.3 Synthesis of results .................................................................................................... - 79 - 6 Discussion ........................................................................................................................ - 82 - 6.1 Methodological reflections ........................................................................................ - 82 - 6.2 Conceptual reflections ............................................................................................... - 84 - 7 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... - 88 - 7.1 Recommendations ..................................................................................................... - 90 - References .......................................................................................................................... - 91 - Annex – semi-structured interview guideline ................................................................... - 101 - Wageningen University iv MSc. Thesis Environmental Policy Group List of figures Figure 1: The academic notion of uncertainty based on a critical literature review after (Grant & Booth 2009) ......................................................................................................................................... - 6 - Figure 2: Synthesised uncertainty matrix by (Kwakkel et al. 2010) .................................................. - 9 - Figure 3: Indirect relationship of perceived scientific agreement with climate policy support (adapted from Ding et al. 2011: p. 462) ........................................................................................................... - 13 - Figure 4: Effect of current pledges and policies on global temperature (Climate Action Tracker 2016a) ................................................................................................................................................ - 14 - Figure 5: Emissions Gaps November 2016 (Climate Action Tracker 2016b) ................................. - 15 - Figure 6: Example of Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways in a Climate Adaptation map (Haasnoot et al. 2013). ............................................................................................................................................ - 19 - Figure 7: The idea of ‘embracing uncertainty’ building on the academic notion of uncertainty ..... - 20 - Figure 8: Empirical process-tracing tests for causal inference (Collier 2011: p. 825). .................... - 26 - Figure 9: Inductive research pathway in explaining-outcome process-tracing (adapted from Beach & Pedersen 2013: p. 20) ........................................................................................................................ - 27 - Figure 10: The structure of the gas and electricity sector into production, market and monopoly in Germany. Own elaboration based on Göken et al. (2009: p. 13). ..................................................... - 35 - Figure 11: The three phases of the remunicipalisation process in Hamburg ........................................ 42 Figure 12: Our Hamburg – Our Grid formed by six core organisations and over 50 supporting organisations. ..................................................................................................................................... - 43 - Figure 13: The hypothesised causal mechanism of the energy grid remunicipalisation in Hamburg- 54 - Figure 14: Inductive research pathway in explaining-outcome process-tracing (adapted from Beach & Pedersen 2013: p. 20) ........................................................................................................................ - 55 - Figure 15: Overview of all assigned codings on uncertainty in the interview data .......................... - 56 - Figure 16: Code relations in Phase I: number of coded statements
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