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'Nuclear Learning in Pakistan Since 1998'

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'Nuclear Learning in Pakistan Since 1998' ‘Nuclear Learning in Pakistan since 1998’ Naeem Ahmad Salik (20881392) B.A., Pakistan Military Academy, 1974; M.A. (History), University of the Punjab, 1981; B.Sc. Hons. (War Studies), Balochistan University, 1985; M.Sc. (International Politics and Strategic Studies), University of Wales, Aberystwyth, 1990. This thesis is presented for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Western Australia School of Social Sciences Political Science and International Relations and the Centre for Muslim States and Societies (CMSS) 2015 Abstract Nuclear learning is a process through which states that acquire nuclear weapons capability learn to manage it through the development of nuclear doctrines, command and control structures, safety and security mechanisms, regulatory regimes and acquire an understanding of both the technological characteristics of these weapons as well as their politico-strategic ramifications. This enables them to achieve a stable strategic balance through a sagacious application of these formidable instruments of power. Pakistan’s nuclear programme has always been beset with controversies and viewed with concern by the international community. These concerns have been accentuated by the spill over of the war in Afghanistan and the widespread incidence of terrorism and extremism within the country itself. In the pre-1998 period Pakistan had adopted a policy of ambiguity and denial of a nuclear weapons programme which combined with the secrecy surrounding the programme had stifled any discussion of issues related to management of an operational nuclear capability and it only started coming to grips with these issues after the May 1998 nuclear tests. This study about Pakistan’s learning experience in managing its nuclear capability suggests that a state that is perpetually afflicted by political instability and weak institutional structures could effectively handle its nuclear arsenal like a normal nuclear state provided it expends requisite effort and resources towards this end. The ability of the state and its institutions to learn through their experiences and from others is also very important in this regard. While the literature on ‘nuclear learning’ is not very exhaustive, the concept is sufficiently well developed to provide an adequate framework for study of Pakistan’s evolution as a nuclear power since 1998.The study helps ascertain the nature and the magnitude of learning by Pakistan to manage various facets of its nuclear capability in the past decade and a half. The study has tried to identify the discernible manifestations of nuclear learning and has tried to determine the reasons for disparity in learning amongst the civilian and military institutions in view of the troublesome civil- military balance in Pakistan. This study brings out Pakistan’s difficult progression to a nuclear weapons capable state and how this bitter historical experience has predisposed it to adopt a particular learning path. It also highlights the dynamic nature of Pakistan’s evolving nuclear doctrine which has been adjusted and adapted to meet the demands of its ever changing security environment. It establishes that Pakistan’s nuclear command and control is a reflection of the existing civil-military balance and is line with the traditional division of labour between the two institutions in the realm of security policy making. The study finds sufficient evidence to suggest that given its precarious internal and external security situation Pakistan has invested heavily in augmenting its nuclear safety and security and this effort has clearly manifested itself and has also received international recognition. After the embarrassment of the AQ Khan episode as well as the emerging international trends evident in the form of UNSC Resolution 1540, Pakistan has also paid attention to strengthening its export control system and to bring it in conformity with international standards. Discernible learning is also apparent in the field of nuclear regulation which has also been acknowledged by the IAEA. Declaration I hereby declare that the thesis submitted for examination is my own original work except where acknowledged in the references. Student Signature Date…12 April 2015……………. Acknowledgements The completion of this work would not have been possible without the intellectual and moral support of a number of people. To begin with I would like to acknowledge the encouragement, insights and guidance of my coordinating supervisor Professor Samina Yasmeen, who not only gave me freedom to carry out my research and writing but also regularly provided invaluable inputs and suggestions which contributed greatly in improving the quality of my work. She along with her husband Professor James Trevelyan provided a congenial, friendly and family like social atmosphere especially while my family was back home in Pakistan. My co-supervisor Dr Roderic Pitty was a source of encouragement and valuable advice and the faculty at the Political Science Department was always friendly and reassuring. I would also like to express my gratitude for the staff at the Graduate Research School and School of Social Sciences for providing assistance and advice, whenever it was needed. The staff and colleagues at the Centre for Muslim States and Societies deserve to be acknowledged for their cooperation and for maintaining a congenial work environment. My thanks are also due to the staff at the Reid Library, who were always forthcoming with any kind of help, assistance or advice asked of them. Finally, the peaceful and conducive atmosphere at the UWA and its serene environs were always helpful in soothing the nerves and relieving the burdens and tensions of work. I owe a debt of gratitude to my wife for relieving me of the burdens of family responsibilities and giving me a free hand to concentrate on my work. She looked after the family affairs back home in Pakistan and taking over the responsibility of all household chores during the time she spent with me in Australia. My sons also deserve appreciation for neither causing any distractions nor making any demands on my time. Above all I would like to thank my mother whose prayers and unmitigated confidence in my abilities have always been a source of strength for me. I would also like to thank all those who agreed to be interviewed in connection with my research project and readily shared their knowledge and ideas with me. LIST OF ACRONYMS AARs After-Action Reviews ACDA Arms Control and Disarmament Agency AWC Air Weapons Complex BJP Bharatiya Janata Party BWC Biological Weapons Convention CWC Chemical Weapons Convention CIA Central Intelligence Agency CJCSC Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee COAS Chief of Army Staff CNS Chief of Naval Staff CAS Chief of Air Staff C4I Command Control Communications Computers and Intelligence CCS Cabinet Committee on Security CNS Convention on Nuclear Safety CoE Centre of Excellence CPPNM Convention on Physical Security of Nuclear Materials CTBT Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty DCC Development Control Committee DND Draft Nuclear Doctrine DNSRP Directorate of Nuclear Security and Radiation Protection DOE Department of Energy ECC Employment Control Committee ERL Engineering Research Laboratories EA&R Cell Evaluation Analysis & Research Cell FMCT Fissile Materials Cut Off Treaty HEU Highly Enriched Uranium IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBMs Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles INFCIRC Information Circular ISI Inter-services Intelligence KANUPP Karachi Nuclear Power Plant KRL Khan Research Laboratories LEU Low Enriched Uranium LSG London Suppliers Group MAD Mutual Assured Destruction MPC&A Material Protection Control & Accounting MTC Maritime Technologies Complex MTCR Missile Technology Control Regime NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NCA National Command Authority NDC National Development Complex NESCOM National Commission on Science and Technology NFU No-First Use NNPA Non-proliferation Prevention Act NNWS Non-Nuclear Weapon States NPR Nuclear Posture Review NPT Non-proliferation Treaty NRC Nuclear Regulatory Commission NRECC National Radiation Emergency Coordination Centre NSAB National Security Advisory Board NSAP Nuclear Security Action Plan NSG Nuclear Suppliers Group NTI Nuclear Threat Initiative NuSECC Nuclear Security Emergency Coordination Centre NWS Nuclear Weapon States PAEC Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission PARR-1 Pakistan Atomic Research Reactor-1 PIEAS Pakistan Institute of Engineering and Applied Sciences PINSTECH Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology PMO Project Management Organisation PNE Peaceful Nuclear Explosion PNRA Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority PNRB Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Board PNSRP Pakistan Nuclear Safety and Radiation Protection Ordinance PRP Personnel Reliability Programme PSI Proliferation Security Initiative R&D Research and Development SDI Strategic Defence Initiative SECDIV Strategic Export Controls Division SFC Strategic Forces Command SLBMs Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles SNIE Special National Intelligence Estimate SPD Strategic Plans Division SROs Statutory Regulatory Orders SUPARCO Space and Upper Atmosphere Commission TTP Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan UNSCR United Nations Security Council Resolution WMDs Weapons of Mass Destruction WWCCS Worldwide Command and Control System Table of Contents Page Introduction 1 Chapter 1 17 Literature Review Chapter 244 A Brief History of Development of Pakistan’s Nuclear Programme Chapter 3 84 Pakistan’s Evolving Nuclear Doctrine Chapter 4 127 Pakistan’s Nuclear
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