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Pakistan's Violence Pakistan’s Violence Causes of Pakistan’s increasing violence since 2001 Anneloes Hansen July 2015 Master thesis Political Science: International Relations Word count: 21481 First reader: S. Rezaeiejan Second reader: P. Van Rooden Studentnumber: 10097953 1 Table of Contents List of Abbreviations and Acronyms List of figures, Maps and Tables Map of Pakistan Chapter 1. Introduction §1. The Case of Pakistan §2. Research Question §3. Relevance of the Research Chapter 2. Theoretical Framework §1. Causes of Violence §1.1. Rational Choice §1.2. Symbolic Action Theory §1.3. Terrorism §2. Regional Security Complex Theory §3. Colonization and the Rise of Institutions §4. Conclusion Chapter 3. Methodology §1. Variables §2. Operationalization §3. Data §4. Structure of the Thesis Chapter 4. Pakistan §1. Establishment of Pakistan §2. Creating a Nation State §3. Pakistan’s Political System §4. Ethnicity and Religion in Pakistan §5. Conflict and Violence in Pakistan 2 §5.1. History of Violence §5.2. Current Violence §5.2.1. Baluchistan §5.2.2. Muslim Extremism and Violence §5. Conclusion Chapter 5. Rational Choice in the Current Conflict §1. Weak State §2. Economy §3. Instability in the Political Centre §4. Alliances between Centre and Periphery §5. Conclusion Chapter 6. Emotions in Pakistan’s Conflict §1. Discrimination §2. Hatred towards Others §2.1. Political Parties §2.2 Extremist Organizations §3. Security Dilemma §4. Conclusion Chapter 7. International Influences §1. International Relations §1.1. United States – Pakistan Relations §1.2. China – Pakistan Relations §1.3. India – Pakistan Relations §2. Neighbouring Weak States Chapter 8. Conclusion and Discussion §1. Conclusion §2. Discussion §3. Further Research 3 List of Abbreviations and Acronyms AJIP Awami Jamhuri Ittehad Pakistan AML Awami Muslim League APML All Pakistan Muslim League ANP Awami National Party BNP Balochistan National Party BNP-M Balochistan National Party BNP-A Balcohistan National Party Awami BLA Baloch Liberation Army BLF Baloch Liberation Front BRA Baloch Republican Army FATA Federal Administered Tribal Areas HRCP Human Rights Commission Pakistan ICG International Crisis Group IDP internally displaced people IDMC Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre IMF International Monetary Fund IPDF Infrastructure Project Development Facillity JWP Jamhoori Wattan Party JI Jamaat-E-Islami JIP Jamaat-e-Islami Pakistan JUI-F Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam JWP Jamhoori Wattan Party KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwa LJ LAskhakr-e-Jangvi MMA Mattahida Majils-i-Amal MQM Muttahida Qaumi Movement MQM-P NP National Party NPP National Peoples Party PAT Pakistan Awami Tehreek PBS Pakistan Bureau of Statistics 4 PMAP Pukhtoonkhwa Milli Awami Party PML Pakistan Muslim League PML-N Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz PML-F Pakistan Muslim League Functional PML-J Pakistan Muslim League Junejo PML-Z Pakistan Muslim League Zia-ul-Haq Shaheed PML-Q Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-i-Azam PPP Pakistan People’s Party PPPP Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians PPP-S Pakistan People’s Party Sherpao PTI Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf QWP-S Qaumi Watan Party (Sherpao) TTP Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan UNDP United Nations Development Program WTO World Trade Organisation 5 List of Figures, Maps and Tables Figures Figure 1. Theoretical Framework. Maps Map 1. Pakistan. Map 2. Pakistan: Administrative Divisions. Map 3. Pakistan, Ethnic Groups. Map 4. Pakistan, Languages. Map 5. Pakistan, Religions. Tables Table 1. Fragile State Index. Table 2. Division of Seats of National Assembly of Pakistan 2002-2015. Table 3. Division of Seat Senate of Pakistan, 2003-2015. Table 4. Presidents of Pakistan 1998-2015. Table 5. Prime Ministers of Pakistan, 2002-2015. Table 6. Fragile State Index, Neighoubring Countries. 6 Map 1 Pakistan. Source: ICG, 2014c:26. 7 Chapter 1. Introduction On 16th December 2014 the Pakistani Taliban executed it deadliest terrorist attack ever by attacking the Army Public School in Peshawar, 125 people were wounded and 141 people died (BBC, 2014). Most of the victims were children studying at the school. The Pakistani Taliban claims that they executed the attack because of the offensive carried out by the Pakistani army against them in the Khyber and North Waziristan areas. A month earlier, a suicide attack on the Pakistan-India border killed 55 people and wounded more than 150 people (Al Jazeera, 2014). Remarkable is that different groups claim responsibility and that they all mention the same reason for the suicide attack: the military offensive in Waziristan. And because the attack took place on the Pakistan-India border, the already existing tensions between the two countries increased. On 30th January, 2015 Jundallah – a Sunni militant group – attacked a Shia mosque during the Friday prayers in Shikarpur (BBC 2015). The bomb blast led to the death of at least 40 people. These three events illustrate the current situation in Pakistan, it has to deal with various types of violent conflicts spread throughout the country. Riedel claims that ‘Pakistan is the most dangerous country in the world today’ (Riedel, 2008:31). Even though this claim is arguable, it is true that it is dangerous in Pakistan: (sectarian) violence, terrorist attacks and serious crimes occur on regular basis and are spread throughout Pakistan. Since the establishment of Pakistan, the country has been stricken by violent conflicts. After a relative quiet period in the 1990s, the level of violence started to increase in the first decade of the millennium (UCDP, 2014b, UCDP 2014c, UCDP, 2014d). This is especially the case for terrorist attacks and their subsequent impact (START, 2013). §1. The Case of Pakistan When Pakistan became independent in 1947 this led to mass migration, the Hindus that were then living in Pakistan moved to India and Muslims that were then living in India moved to Pakistan. This is one of the reasons that the population of Pakistan is diverse. Different ethnic groups, with their own languages and rituals were ‘forced’ to share a nation state, the only common denominator (most of) the citizens had was Islam – although they differ in their expression of this religion. The migrated people – that had formed the elite in British India – now mainly formed the new elite in Pakistan. To overcome the problems caused by the ethnic diversity, the government tried to centralize and homogenise the Pakistani culture. By doing 8 this the political elites privileged their own ethnic groups, which led to dissatisfaction among the remaining ethnic groups. As a consequence, Bangladesh became an independent country and conflicts between the national government of Pakistan and the Baloch and Sindh arose. The centralisation and homogenisation of the Pakistani culture failed, and the ethnic groups in Pakistan often have (violent) conflicts with each other. Since the establishment of Pakistan there have been violent conflicts between ethnic groups; between religious sects; between the government and ethnic groups; between the army and the government et cetera. Some militant groups have been sponsored by the Pakistani government, while others have been in conflict with the government since 1947, or have indeed been both ally or enemy of the government, at different times. The conflicts in Pakistan are diverse and are recurrent. In the 1990s there was a period of relative peace – even though the violence continued – but from the second half of the zeroes onwards the violence in Pakistan increased dramatically. After the start of the war on terror in Afghanistan, extremist Muslim groups started to commit terrorist attacks throughout Pakistan. The government executed several offensives in the FATA district and in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), where most of the Extremist Muslim groups are based. Besides the increase of Muslim extremist violence, separatist violence in Baluchistan started to increase as a reaction to the 2005 military insurgency. The violence in Pakistan is diverse and complex. It is not a conflict between fixed actors, but in addition there are also a number of actors with constantly changing affiliations. And besides that, the relations between actors have been changing all the time. Besides the fact that Pakistan has to deal with violence, there are political and economic problems in the country. Pakistan’s political history is turbulent: since its establishment only once a democratically chosen leader turned the power democratically over. Every other time coups were committed by the army, or the Prime Minister was disposed by the President, before a new democratic leader could be chosen. Additionally, Pakistan has to deal with corruption in both the political and economic system. Pakistan’s economy has been a victim of the current violence, since 2005 almost no economic growth took place. Furthermore Pakistan has to deal with poverty, 21% of the population lives below the poverty line. Pakistan is thus troubled by violence, political and economic problems. 9 §2. Research Question In this thesis, the causes of the increasing violence are investigated. The aim of the research is to examine the relation between violence and the political and economic system of Pakistan. Also the colonial past of Pakistan is taken into account, this is mainly focussed on how this influenced Pakistan’s current political and economic system. This culminates into the following research question: What is the cause of the rise in violence in Pakistan post 9/11 and how is this related with its political and economic system and the fact that Pakistan is a former colony? §3. Relevance of the Research This research focuses on the causes of civil conflict, which is based on the literature of civil war. Civil conflict can be seen as preliminary stage of civil war. The causes of violence are complex and within the academic world there is disagreement on the origins of civil war (Cederman, 2010; Fearon and Latin, 2003; Kalyvas, 2003; Kaufmann, 2006). It is important to understand the causes of civil conflict, because only then solutions can be found and new conflicts can be prevented. Which again is important, because when civil conflicts have arisen they are difficult to end.
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