IRI Index Pakistan Public Opinion Survey March 7-30, 2009 Survey Methodology
• In-person, in-home interview • National representative sample of adult residents of Pakistan. • n = 3,500 • Conducted between March 7-30, 2009 • Margin of error ± 1.66 percent overall • Data collected by Socio Economic Development Consultants (SEDCO) • A multi-stage probability sample was used. In the first stage, the sample was stratified into four provinces. In the second stage, the sample was further stratified into districts within each province by rural and urban categories. In the third stage eachdistrict was further stratified by Union Councils. • The sample was distributed at the provincial level, rural and urban, in all four provinces of Pakistan (except for the Federally Administrative Tribal Areas (FATA), Chitral and Kohistan). The sample was then post-weighted to make it proportionate to national representation by province. • The eligibility criteria is age, which for this survey is 18 years and above. • The response rate was just over 90percent. • The interview teams were comprised of both of males and females;the female respondents were interviewed by female interviewers and male respondents by male interviewers. • Kish method was used to select respondents 18 years and older within the randomly selected household. The right hand method was used to select every third household in localities selected through area probability sample. • The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding error.
2 Survey Demographics
Male 52% Female 48% Monthly Household Income Up to Rs 3,000 7% Urban 33% Rural 68% Rs 3,001 œ 10,000 32% Rs 10,001 œ 15,000 27% Age Rs 15,001 œ 25,000 20% Up to 25 30% More than Rs 25,000 5% 26-35 33% 36-50 29% Language 50+ 8% Urdu 13% Punjabi 46% Education Pashto 12% Illiterate 27% Sindhi 14% Primary 14% Seraiki 8% Middle 12% Matric 20% Hindko 4% Intermediate 14% Balochi 2% Graduate 10% MA/Prof‘l 3% 3 Acronyms Legend
• Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) • Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) • Awami National Party (ANP) • Muttahida Quami Movemnet (MQM) • Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaf (PTI) • Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) • Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) • Pakistan Peoples Party-Parliamentarians (PPPP). This is the parliamentary bloc allied with PPP. • Pakistan Peoples Party-Shaheed Bhutto (PPP-SB) • Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PKMAP) • Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) • Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Faction (JUI-F) • Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) • Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) • Pakhtun-khwa Milli Awami Party (PKMAP)
4 INDICATORS
5 Do you think that Pakistan is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction?
100% 88% 90% 84% 86% 81% 80% 73% 70% 70% 60% 59% 46% 50% 44% 44%
40% 38% 43% 43% 33% 30% 26% 20% 19% 15% 18% 10% 12% 11% 0% Jun-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09
Right Direction Wrong Direction 6 In the past year, has your personal economic situation improved, worsened or stayed the same?
80% 73%
70% 72% 72% 63%
60% 56%
50% 51%
40% 34% 35% 33% 34% 30% 30% 24% 25% 29% 18%18% 20% 14% 16% 14% 19% 23% 10% 4% 3% 3% 13% 12% 12% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Feb-07 Jun-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09
Better Worse Same DK/NR 7 Thinking about next year, do you expect the economic situation in Pakistan to get better, get worse or stay the same? 70% 59% 60%
48% 50% 46% 41% 36% 40% 34% 34% 31% 33% 27% 30% 28% 30% 30% 26% 29% 21% 22% 20% 21% 20% 22% 18% 20% 15% 23% 20% 19% 18% 20% 18% 18% 14% 10% 14% 14% 12% 13% 7% 0% Sept-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09
Better Worse Same DK/NR 8 Agree or Disagree? I feel more secure this year than I did last year
90% 85% 80% 78%
70% 65% 66% 63% 60% 56% 60% 50% 39% 40% 32% 38% 30% 23% 27% 19% 20% 12% 12% 7% 10% 6% 6% 3% 3% 3% 0% Jun-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09
Agree Disagree DK/NR
9 KEY ISSUES
10 What is the most important issue facing Pakistan?
Inflation 46%
Unemployment 22%
Terrorism 10% Poverty 9%
Law & Order 4%
Electricity & W ater 3%
Corruption 2%
Education 2%
Democratic Reforms 2%
Development 1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
11 What is the most important issue facing Pakistan? (Comparison)
80% 71% 70%
60% 58%
50% 46%
40%
30% 22% 20% 13% 12% 10%
0% Un em ploym en t In flation Jun-08 Oct-08 March-09 12 TERRORISM
13 Agree or Disagree? Religious extremism is a serious problem in Pakistan.
Mar-09 74% 24% 2%
Oct-08 60% 34% 7%
Jun-08 61% 27% 12%
Jan-08 73% 24% 2%
Nov-07 66% 31% 3%
Sept-07 74% 21% 5%
Jun-07 64% 21% 16%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Agree Disagree DK/NR
14 Agree or Disagree? The Taliban and Al-Qaeda operating in Pakistan is a serious problem.
Mar-09 69% 28% 3%
Oct-08 51% 39% 10%
Jun-08 45% 36% 19%
Jan-08 65% 32% 4%
Nov-07 63% 34% 4%
Sept-07 57% 33% 10%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Agree Disagree DK/NR 15 Agree or Disagree? I support the Army fighting the extremists in NWFP and FATA.
Mar-09 45% 52% 3%
Oct-08 38% 50% 12%
Jun-08 27% 51% 22%
Jan-08 33% 64% 3%
Nov-07 40% 56% 4%
Sept-07 28% 63% 9%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Agree Disagree DK/NR
16 Agree or Disagree? I support the U.S. making military incursions in the tribal areas
Mar-09 24% 72% 3%
73% Oct-08 13% 14%
0% 50% 100% Agree Disagree DK/NR
17 Do you think that Pakistan should cooperate with the United States on its war against terror?
100% 90% 83% 82% 89% 80% 71% 70% 63% 63% 61% 60% 47% 50% 46%
40% 38% 37% 43% 32% 28% 30% 15% 20% 11% 15% 12% 15% 9% 14% 9% 10% 5% 5% 3% 0% 2% 2% Sept-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09
Agree Disagree DK/NR
18 Agree or Disagree? I support a peace deal with the extremists
80% 72% 70% 64% 60% 54% 50%
40% 35%
30% 22% 18% 18% 20% 12% 10% 6%
0% Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09
Agree Disagree DK/NR
19 It was recently announced that as a result of a peace deal between the government and the Taliban, Sharia Law will be enforced in Swat. Do you support or oppose the decision? 100%
80% 80%
60%
40%
20% 16% 4% 0%
Support Oppose DK/NR
20 Do you think that the deal will bring peace to the region?
6%
20%
Yes No DK/NR
74%
21 As a result of the deal, do you think the following are weaker or stronger? % 3 7 % 7 % 6 4 6 % % 8 7 % 5 5 % 4 3 5 5 % 9 4 % % % 0 9 % 8 4 3 6 3 3 %% %% 11 11 %% 33 33 99 22 % 1 2 % % 3 1 2 1 % % % % % % 7 7 6 5 5 6
t i f t a P i n r F n n d I r a a e l N e e a b d U a A P i a m h r r l J m F t n a / S Q a n
I r n l Z r T z
W J e e f A e a i v N C v s w o o a A G G N Stronger W eaker DK/NR 22 Does the deal make you more or less likely to support the following parties, assuming the election was to be held next week? % 1 7 % 3 % 6 0 6 % 2 5 % 6 % 4 4 4 % % 4 4 3 3 % 6 % 2 3 2 % 4 % 1 1 1 % 9 % 6 % 6
PML-Q ANP PPP JI/JUIF PML-N
More Likely Less Likely DK/NR 23 Do you think that President Zardari should sign the peace deal?
5% 14%
Yes No DK/NR
82%
24 In the future, if the Taliban demand Sharia in other parts of Pakistan like Karachi, Multan, Quetta or Lahore for instance? Would you support their demand?
5%
Yes No DK/NR 39% 56%
25 Terrorists recently attacked the city of Mumbai, killing 164 people. The news is reporting that the attacks were planned in Pakistan and carried out by Lashkar-e-Taiba. Do you believe this is true?
7% 8% Yes 7% No Maybe DK/NR
78%
26 Who do you think was responsible for the Mumbai attacks?
Raw/India 42%
DK/NR 33%
America 20%
Foreign Entities 1%
Pakistan 1%
Taliban 1%
Terrorists 1%
Other 1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Note: Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) is India‘s external intelligence agency. 27 If there is proof that the attacks were planned in Pakistan and carried out by Lashkar-e-Taiba, what do you think should happen to those involved?
5% 82% 7% 6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Turned over to India for trial and punishment Tried and punished in Pakistan Nothing DK/NR 28 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lashkar-e-Taiba?
43% 46% 12%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Favorable Unfavorable DK/NR
29 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the nation of India?
45% 52%
9% 36% 19% 33% 3%
0% Very Favorable 50% Somewhat Favora1b0le0 % Somewhat Unfavorable Strongly Unfavorable DK/NR
30 Do you think it is a serious problem if Lashkar-e-Taiba, Al-Qaeda and other terrorists are using Pakistan as a base of operations to launch attacks against India?
79% 17%
50% 29% 9% 8% 5%
0% Very5 S0er%ious Problem 100% Somewhat Serious Problem A Small Problem Not a Problem at All DK/NR
31 INSTITUTIONAL RATINGS
32 In your opinion, how has the government performed on the issues most important to you?
New Gov‘t 90% 80% | 79% 80% 75% 76% | 70% 68% 61%58% 60% |
50% | 51%
40% | 41% 34% 31% 30% 38% | 19% 20% 22% | 18% 21% 10% | 0% Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Good Poor
33 How would you rate the following institutions? (percent saying favorable)
*NOTE: A new government took office between the Jan 08 and June 08 polls % 8 % % 6 8 5 % 8 8 % 2 % % % 1 % 8 0 0 0 % 8 9 % 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 % % % 2 2 % % 7 0 7 % % 7 8 8 8 % 7 6 6 % 6 5 6 % 4 % 6 3 6 2 % % 6 6 0 0 6 6 % % % 6 5 6 % 5 5 5 % % 2 1 % % 0 5 5 9 8 5 % 4 4 6 % % 4 % 3 3 % 2 1 4 % 4 4 4 0 4 %% %% %% % % 11 11 % 00 9 9 33 33 % 8 33 2 2 7 2 % % 2 4 3 2 2 % % 5 1 3 1 e a s l y
n y i t c t l a o i r d m i b n l n t t e r u e o i o n m o i A s P M e e t m C o s s a n e p s r N r p e A P v O o G
Jun-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 34 THE ARMY
35 Agree or Disagree? The Army should have no role in the civilian government.
100% 11% 9% 10% 90% 80% 24% 27% 42% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 62% 49% 73% 20% 10% 0% Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Agree Disagree DK/NR
36 The 1973 Constitution of Pakistan says the military should work under civilian leadership. In your opinion, how much control should civilian leadership have over the military?
60% 53% 50% 48%
40% Total Some 30% 26% None 21% 19% DK/NR 20% 14% 12% 10% 7%
0% Oct-08 Mar-09 37 Some people say the military has the right to take over from civilian leaders when they have become too corrupt or fail to govern. Under what circumstances should the military be able to do this? 70% 65%
60% 56%
50%
40%
30% 25% 18% 20% 15% 11% 10% 5% 6%
0% Oct-08 Mar-09
Whenever it Wants Only in an Emergency Never DK/NR 38 If you had a choice between a stable and prosperous Pakistan that was ruled by a military dictatorship or a democratic government that led to an unstable and insecure Pakistan, which would you choose? 90% 80% 70% 77% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 20% 10% 3% 0%
Military Dictatorship Democratic Government DK/NR
39 LEADERSHIP RATINGS
40 Which one leader do you think will be able to handle the problems facing Pakistan most effectively?
60% 55%
50%
40%
30%
20% 9% 7% 7% 10% 5% 5% 2% 4% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 0%
Asif Zardari Pervez Musharraf Nawaz Sharif Qazi Hussain Ahmed Altaf Hussain Maulana Falur Rehman Imran Khan Bilalwal Bhutto Shahbaz Sharif Yousaf Raza Gilani No One Others DK/NR 41 Who would you rather see as the president of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif or Asif Zardari?
80%
70% 71% 60% 59% 50% Zardari 40% Sharif DK/NR 30%
20% 19% 22% 10% 16% 11% 0% Oct 08 Mar 09 42 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the President is doing?
Zardari Sworn In 80% 75%| 70% 67% 62% 72% | 63% 60% 63% 60% 60% 54% | 50% 49% | 40% 34% | 30% 23% 22% 26% 30% | 21% 19% 19% 20% 15% | 10% 11% | 0% Jun 06 Sep 06 Feb 07 Jun 07 Sep 07 Nov 07 Jan 08 Jun 08 Oct 08 Mar 09
Approve Disapprove
43 Would you say you like or dislike the following political personalities?
Like Dislike Neither/DK/NR % 5 % % 7 % 2 0 % % 0 7 7 9 9 7 6 6 % % 6 6 6 % 6 % 2 1 % 6 6 % 8 8 5 5 % 4 % 5 % 1 0 5 % 5 7 % 4 % 5 3 4 4 % % % 9 9 8 3 3 3 %% %% %% 33 % 33 % % 22 % 33 % 2 1 33 33 % 0 % 0 % % 9 3 3 3 8 3 9 8 9 % 2 % 2 2 % 2 2 % 5 % % 5 4 % 4 2 4 % 4 2 2 3 2 2 2 % % 2 1 2 2 % 1 % 2 9 2 % % 9 % % 1 7 1 6 7 7 1 1 1 1 % % 2 % % % 1 1 1 1 % % 1 0 1 1 % 1 9 8 % 9 % % 7 6 6
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66%
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Oct 08 Mar 09 45 The Supreme Court recently ruled that Nawaz and Shabaz Sharif were ineligible to hold office. As a result, Shabaz has been removed as the Chief Minister of Punjab. Do you support or oppose this decision?
80%
70% 76%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20% 20% 10% 4% 0%
Support Oppose DK/NR
46 As a result of the decision, protests have broken out all over the country. Do you support or oppose these protests?
70%
60% 62% 50%
40%
30% 34% 20%
10% 4%
0%
Support Oppose DK/NR 47 ELECTIONS
48 If the elections for national assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote?
70% 62% 60%
50%
40%
30%
20% 17%
10% 6% 3% 3% 3% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0%
PML-N PPP PML-Q PTI MQM MMA/JUI-F ANP PPP-SB Will Not Cast Vote DK/NR 49 If the elections for national assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? (Tracking Major Parties) 70% 62% 60%
50% 50%
40% 36% 36% 35% 32% 30% 32% 30% 26% 27% 25% 23% 22% 28% 24% 22% 22% 19% 20% 19% 19% 23% 17% 16% 17% 14% 14% 16% 15% 10% 13% 10% 6% 4% 6% 3% 5% 4% 0% 3% 1% Sept-06 Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09
PPP PML-Q PML-N DK/NR Will not cast vote 50 If the elections for national assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? PUNJAB 90% 89% 80%
70%
60% 54% 54% 50% 51% 44% 40% 36% 30% 30% 30% 27% 30% 21% 32% 23% 24% 20% 24% 19% 17% 22% 14% 8% 10% 5% 3% 4% 1% 0% Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09
PPP PML-Q PML-N 51 If the elections for national assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? SINDH
80% 74% 70% 64% 60% 60% 57% 57% 49% 50% 50% 40% 42%
30%
20% 16% 14% 13% 11% 8% 10% 10% 8% 6% 6% 9% 6% 5% 6% 6% 5%5% 4% 12% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 1% 0% 4% 2% 2% Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09
PPP PML-Q PML-N PPP-SB MQM 52 If the elections for national assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? NWFP
50% 47%
40% 37%
31% 30% 27% 27% 25% 23% 20% 20% 21% 18% 17% 18% 17% 12% 11% 16% 12% 13% 12% 10% 10% 10% 9% 10% 10% 10% 9% 7% 6% 5% 4% 5% 7% 7% 3% 3% 3% 3% 6% 4% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 1% Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09
PPP PML-Q PML-N MMA ANP PTI 53 If the elections for national assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? BALOCHISTAN
50% 44% 44% 45%
40% 39% 34% 40% 35% 29% 30% 27% 22% 20% 20% 17% 19% 17% 15% 15% 16% 15% 12% 10% 9% 9% 5% 6% 6% 5% 4% 6% 3% 5% 1% 1% 4% 4% 3% 0% 2% 2% 1% Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09
PPP PML-Q PML-N MMA MQM PTI ANP PKMAP 54 What is the one thing the PPP government could do that would convince you to vote for them?
Reduce Inflation 30%
Abolish Unemployment 14%
Control Terrorism 11%
DK/NR 9%
End Poverty 5%
Freedom of Courts 2%
True Democratic Government 1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 55 Should PML-Q form a coalition with PPPP or merge with PML-N?
Mar-09 16% 71% 13%
Oct-08 17% 51% 32%
Jun-08 16% 20% 64%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Coalition with PPPP Merge with PML-N DK/NR
56 If there was another parliamentary election held next week and the following were your choices, for whom would you vote?
70% 64%
60%
50% 38% 40% 36% 31%29% 31%31%
30% 20% 20% 16%
10%
0% Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09
Coalition of religious parties led by PML-N Coalition of secular parties led by PPP DK/NR 57