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Survey March 7-30, 2009 Survey Methodology IRI Index Pakistan Public Opinion Survey March 7-30, 2009 Survey Methodology • In-person, in-home interview • National representative sample of adult residents of Pakistan. • n = 3,500 • Conducted between March 7-30, 2009 • Margin of error ± 1.66 percent overall • Data collected by Socio Economic Development Consultants (SEDCO) • A multi-stage probability sample was used. In the first stage, the sample was stratified into four provinces. In the second stage, the sample was further stratified into districts within each province by rural and urban categories. In the third stage eachdistrict was further stratified by Union Councils. • The sample was distributed at the provincial level, rural and urban, in all four provinces of Pakistan (except for the Federally Administrative Tribal Areas (FATA), Chitral and Kohistan). The sample was then post-weighted to make it proportionate to national representation by province. • The eligibility criteria is age, which for this survey is 18 years and above. • The response rate was just over 90percent. • The interview teams were comprised of both of males and females;the female respondents were interviewed by female interviewers and male respondents by male interviewers. • Kish method was used to select respondents 18 years and older within the randomly selected household. The right hand method was used to select every third household in localities selected through area probability sample. • The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding error. 2 Survey Demographics Male 52% Female 48% Monthly Household Income Up to Rs 3,000 7% Urban 33% Rural 68% Rs 3,001 œ 10,000 32% Rs 10,001 œ 15,000 27% Age Rs 15,001 œ 25,000 20% Up to 25 30% More than Rs 25,000 5% 26-35 33% 36-50 29% Language 50+ 8% Urdu 13% Punjabi 46% Education Pashto 12% Illiterate 27% Sindhi 14% Primary 14% Seraiki 8% Middle 12% Matric 20% Hindko 4% Intermediate 14% Balochi 2% Graduate 10% MA/Prof‘l 3% 3 0cronyms Legend • Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) • Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) • Awami National Party (ANP) • Muttahida Quami Movemnet (MQM) • Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaf (PTI) • Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) • Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) • Pakistan Peoples Party-Parliamentarians (PPPP). This is the parliamentary bloc allied with PPP. • Pakistan Peoples Party-Shaheed Bhutto (PPP-SB) • Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PKMAP) • Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) • Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Faction (JUI-F) • Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) • Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) • Pakhtun-khwa Milli Awami Party (PKMAP) 4 INDICATORS 5 ,o you think that Pakistan is heading in the right direction or in the wrong direction? 100% 88% 90% 84% 86% 81% 80% 73% 70% 70% 60% 59% 46% 50% 44% 44% 40% 38% 43% 43% 33% 30% 26% 20% 19% 15% 18% 10% 12% 11% 0% Jun-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Right Direction Wrong Direction 6 In the past year, has your personal economic situation improved, worsened or stayed the same? 80% 73% 70% 72% 72% 63% 60% 56% 50% 51% 40% 34% 35% 33% 34% 30% 30% 24% 25% 29% 18%18% 20% 14% 16% 14% 19% 23% 10% 4% 3% 3% 13% 12% 12% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% Feb-07 Jun-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Better Worse Same DK/NR 7 2hinking about next year, do you expect the economic situation in Pakistan to get better, get worse or stay the same? 70% 59% 60% 48% 50% 46% 41% 36% 40% 34% 34% 31% 33% 27% 30% 28% 30% 30% 26% 29% 21% 22% 20% 21% 20% 22% 18% 20% 15% 23% 20% 19% 18% 20% 18% 18% 14% 10% 14% 14% 12% 13% 7% 0% Sept-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Better Worse Same DK/NR 8 0gree or Disagree? I feel more secure this year than I did last year 90% 85% 80% 78% 70% 65% 66% 63% 60% 56% 60% 50% 39% 40% 32% 38% 30% 23% 27% 19% 20% 12% 12% 7% 10% 6% 6% 3% 3% 3% 0% Jun-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Agree Disagree DK/NR 9 .01 ISSUES 10 Ghat is the most important issue facing Pakistan? Inflation 46% Unemployment 22% Terrorism 10% Poverty 9% Law & Order 4% Electricity & W ater 3% Corruption 2% Education 2% Democratic Reforms 2% Development 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 11 Ghat is the most important issue facing Pakistan? (Comparison) 80% 71% 70% 60% 58% 50% 46% 40% 30% 22% 20% 13% 12% 10% 0% Unem ploym ent Inflation Jun-08 Oct-08 March-09 12 TERRORISM 13 0gree or Disagree? Religious extremism is a serious problem in Pakistan. Mar-09 74% 24% 2% Oct-08 60% 34% 7% Jun-08 61% 27% 12% Jan-08 73% 24% 2% Nov-07 66% 31% 3% Sept-07 74% 21% 5% Jun-07 64% 21% 16% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Agree Disagree DK/NR 14 0gree or Disagree? The Taliban and Al-Qaeda operating in Pakistan is a serious problem. Mar-09 69% 28% 3% Oct-08 51% 39% 10% Jun-08 45% 36% 19% Jan-08 65% 32% 4% Nov-07 63% 34% 4% Sept-07 57% 33% 10% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Agree Disagree DK/NR 15 0gree or Disagree? I support the Army fighting the extremists in NWFP and FATA. Mar-09 45% 52% 3% Oct-08 38% 50% 12% Jun-08 27% 51% 22% Jan-08 33% 64% 3% Nov-07 40% 56% 4% Sept-07 28% 63% 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Agree Disagree DK/NR 16 0gree or Disagree? I support the U.S. making military incursions in the tribal areas Mar-09 24% 72% 3% 73% Oct-08 13% 14% 0% 50% 100% Agree Disagree DK/NR 17 ,o you think that Pakistan should cooperate with the United States on its war against terror? 100% 90% 83% 82% 89% 80% 71% 70% 63% 63% 61% 60% 47% 50% 46% 40% 38% 37% 43% 32% 28% 30% 15% 20% 11% 15% 12% 15% 9% 14% 9% 10% 5% 5% 3% 0% 2% 2% Sept-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Agree Disagree DK/NR 18 0gree or Disagree? I support a peace deal with the extremists 80% 72% 70% 64% 60% 54% 50% 40% 35% 30% 22% 18% 18% 20% 12% 10% 6% 0% Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Agree Disagree DK/NR 19 It was recently announced that as a result of a peace deal between the government and the Taliban, Sharia Law will be enforced in Swat. Do you support or oppose the decision? 100% 80% 80% 60% 40% 20% 16% 4% 0% Support Oppose DK/NR 20 ,o you think that the deal will bring peace to the region? 6% 20% Yes No DK/NR 74% 21 73% Taliban 21% 7% 0 67% Central s 29% Government a 5% r e s u 64% l NWFP t 31% Government o 5% f a S t r t h e r o e w n 57% g d e e e r Al Qaeda 31% a a 12% k l e W , r d e a o o k 54% r e y r s Nawaz Sharif 39% o t u 6% r D o t K n h / N g i n R 53% e k JI/JUIF 40% r ? t 7% h e f 38% o l l ANP 49% o 13% w i n g 2 36% 2 Asif Zardari 58% 6% ,oes the deal make you more or less likely to support the following parties, assuming the election was to be held next week? % 1 7 % 3 % 6 0 6 % 2 5 % 6 % 4 4 4 % % 4 4 3 3 % 6 % 2 3 2 % 4 % 1 1 1 % 9 % 6 % 6 PML-Q ANP PPP JI/JUIF PML-N More Likely Less Likely DK/NR 23 ,o you think that President Zardari should sign the peace deal? 5% 14% Yes No DK/NR 82% 24 In the future, if the Taliban demand Sharia in other parts of Pakistan like Karachi, Multan, Quetta or Lahore for instance? Would you support their demand? 5% Yes No DK/NR 39% 56% 25 2errorists recently attacked the city of Mumbai, killing 164 people. The news is reporting that the attacks were planned in Pakistan and carried out by Lashkar-e-Taiba. Do you believe this is true? 7% 8% Yes 7% No Maybe DK/NR 78% 26 Gho do you think was responsible for the Mumbai attacks? Raw/India 42% DK/NR 33% America 20% Foreign Entities 1% Pakistan 1% Taliban 1% Terrorists 1% Other 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Note: Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) is India‘s external intelligence agency. 27 If there is proof that the attacks were planned in Pakistan and carried out by Lashkar-e-Taiba, what do you think should happen to those involved? 5% 82% 7% 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Turned over to India for trial and punishment Tried and punished in Pakistan Nothing DK/NR 28 ,o you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lashkar-e-Taiba? 43% 46% 12% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Favorable Unfavorable DK/NR 29 ,o you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the nation of India? 45% 52% 9% 36% 19% 33% 3% 0% Very Favorable 50% Somewhat Favora1b0le0 % Somewhat Unfavorable Strongly Unfavorable DK/NR 30 ,o you think it is a serious problem if Lashkar-e-Taiba, Al-Qaeda and other terrorists are using Pakistan as a base of operations to launch attacks against India? 79% 17% 50% 29% 9% 8% 5% 0% Very5 S0er%ious Problem 100% Somewhat Serious Problem A Small Problem Not a Problem at All DK/NR 31 INSTITUTIONAL RATINGS 32 In your opinion, how has the government performed on the issues most important to you? New Gov‘t 90% 80% | 79% 80% 75% 76% | 70% 68% 61%58% 60% | 50% | 51% 40% | 41% 34% 31% 30% 38% | 19% 20% 22% | 18% 21% 10% | 0% Feb-07 June-07 Sept-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Good Poor 33 64% 42% 50% National 48% Assembly 81% 56% J 72% u n - 0 41% H 7 24% 30% Present o 29% S Government w 85% * e N p 31% w O - 29% T 0 E o 7 : u 49% A n 46% l N e d ( 51% w o p g y v Opposition 60% o e - v 15% o 0 e r r 31% u 7 c n 52% m e r e n n a J t t t 80% t a o e n 70% o s k - 55% a 0 t o f h Army 65% y 8 f i c 60% i e e n b 68% e f 80% g t J o w u e f l n e l a 28% n o - v t 0 13% h w 8 e 23% o J r i Police 27% a n n a 40% 0 O g b 43% 8 c l 43% a i t e n n - d 0 ) J s 8 62% u t n i 77% e t 68% 0 u 8 M Courts 67% p t o a 63% i l r l o 56% s - 0 68% n 9 s 82% ? 80% 3 4 78% Media 88% 79% 72% 86% THE ARMY 35 0gree or Disagree? The Army should have no role in the civilian government.
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