DOCSLIB.ORG

Fire and Ice – a New Maritime Strategy

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Fire and Ice – a New Maritime Strategy FIRE AND ICE A New Maritime Strategy for NATO’s Northern Flank DecemberJuly 2018 2018 0 Fire and Ice - A New Maritime Strategy for NATO's Northern Flank Copyright: Human Security Centre, 2018 London, UK For further information, please contact: [email protected] Author: Dr Rowan Allport [email protected] Cover images: Top – Royal Norwegian Navy frigate HNoMS Fridtjof Nansen (Source: Norwegian Ministry of Defence) Bottom: Royal Navy submarine HMS Astute (Source: UK MoD/Crown Copyright/OGL) 1 Fire and Ice - A New Maritime Strategy for NATO's Northern Flank The Human Security Centre (HSC) is an independent international affairs think- tank based in London, with interests in foreign, defence and security policy. Our mission is to address current and emerging threats to human security and to promote an international society where individuals and communities can live free from fear, free from want and free from indignity. The HSC advances the concept of human security as a necessary supplement to traditional state security and as a central pillar of modern foreign policy in the twenty-first century. It emphasises the importance and universality of human rights and fundamental freedoms, promotes democratic values and the rule of law, and warns against the dangers of isolationism. To further its aims, the HSC undertakes analytical, policy-relevant and solution-oriented research into critical human insecurities – particularly political repression, religious persecution, human rights violations, mass atrocity crimes, armed conflicts and terrorism – for the public benefit, to educate the public and relevant stakeholders, and to inform foreign and security policy. The HSC engages with governments, intergovernmental and non-governmental organisations, and other partners to advance people-centred, context-specific and prevention-oriented solutions. It produces a wide range of digital publications, submits evidence to Parliamentary inquiries, provides advisory support to policymakers, and offers commentary to international media outlets. POLICY EXPERTISE Security and Defence: analysis and commentary on foreign and defence policy, national and international security, counter-terrorism and cyber security, with strong expertise on the MENA region. Global Governance: analysis and commentary based on international humanitarian, human rights and criminal law, and addressing developments at intergovernmental organisations, such as the UN and ICC. Religion and Politics: generating greater awareness of freedom of religion and belief issue, monitoring threats to this freedom around the world, and exploring the relationship between religion and violence The HSC has a strong academic and political network in the UK, EU, US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and India. Our work regularly informs Lords and Commons reports in the UK; and our staff has worked on key assignments for international organisations, such as the UN, EU and the Commonwealth. HSC Research Fellows have featured in a variety of news publications, such as The Guardian, The Independent, The Telegraph, The Spectator, The New York Times, The Hill, IB Times and Evening Standard, and on television news outlets, such as the BBC, Channel 4, Sky News, Al Jazeera and CNN . 2 Fire and Ice - A New Maritime Strategy for NATO's Northern Flank Content Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 5 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 8 Background: NATO’s Northern Flanks and Maritime Strategy .............................................................. 9 The Cold War: 1947-1989 ................................................................................................................................. 9 Post-Cold War: 1989-2014 ............................................................................................................................... 12 The Modern Strategic Context ...................................................................................................................... 16 The New Cold War: background ................................................................................................................... 16 Russia ................................................................................................................................................................ 17 Russian Defence Reforms and Procurement ........................................................................................... 17 Russian Navy ............................................................................................................................................... 18 Russian Aerospace Forces ......................................................................................................................... 20 Russian Land Forces .................................................................................................................................. 23 Russian Nuclear Forces ............................................................................................................................. 25 State Armaments Plan 2018-2027 ............................................................................................................. 25 The Russian Defence Budget .................................................................................................................... 27 Russia’s National Security Strategy and Defence Doctrine ................................................................... 27 Russia’s Naval Doctrine and Maritime Strategy ..................................................................................... 29 Russia and the Arctic .................................................................................................................................. 31 NATO ............................................................................................................................................................... 33 Post-2014 NATO activity: The Northern Flank and the Atlantic .......................................................... 33 Post-2014 NATO activity: Mainland Europe .......................................................................................... 42 The Conflict Scenario ...................................................................................................................................... 45 2024: War in the Baltic .................................................................................................................................. 45 NATO’s Posture: the Baltic Region .............................................................................................................. 46 Russian’s Posture ............................................................................................................................................ 47 A2/AD: Blockading the Baltic ....................................................................................................................... 47 Outcome ......................................................................................................................................................... 49 The Northern Flank and Maritime Realm .............................................................................................. 49 Finland and Sweden .................................................................................................................................. 50 The New Maritime Strategy ........................................................................................................................... 52 Russian Action: Interdict NATO lines of communication ........................................................................... 54 NATO Response: Secure lines of communication ....................................................................................... 56 Russian Action: Strike NATO points of vulnerability .................................................................................. 58 NATO Response: Defend points of vulnerability .......................................................................................... 61 3 Fire and Ice - A New Maritime Strategy for NATO's Northern Flank Russian Action: Strategic Defence ................................................................................................................ 64 NATO Response: Horizontal Escalation ..................................................................................................... 66 Other Maritime Theatres .............................................................................................................................. 69 The Baltic Sea ............................................................................................................................................. 69 The Black Sea ............................................................................................................................................. 70 The Mediterranean .................................................................................................................................... 70 The Pacific ................................................................................................................................................... 71 Outcome .........................................................................................................................................................
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Fellow Submarines by Jan Joel Andersson
    32 2016 AL E X A ND E RZ E ML IA N ic H E NKO/AP/SIPA Fellow submarines by Jan Joel Andersson Ever since the occupation of Crimea in 2014, commercial, and military transport. Moreover, Russian military activity has increased in and the growing importance of secure maritime bor- around Europe. Russian air and land exercises have ders and the protection of vital undersea global also become more assertive and frequent compared communication cables make it both prudent and to previous years. Fighter jets of the Swedish and necessary for Europe to collectively manage, de- Finnish air forces, as well as NATO fighters pro- ter, and counter any undersea provocations. tecting the air space of the three Baltic republics of Countering enemy submarines is, however, very Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are scrambled on a difficult, time consuming and costly as the best regular basis to intercept approaching Russian air- underwater defences are submarines themselves. craft. Similarly, the Russian navy has stepped up its operations and engages in naval exercises and Complex and competitive deployments of increasing scope and scale. Containing more parts than jet airliners and be- Perhaps most worryingly to Western observers is ing more complicated than surface vessels, sub- the increase in underwater activity in the Baltic marines can be compared to space ships in their Sea and North Atlantic: senior NATO naval com- complexity. There are only a handful of companies manders have confirmed that “Russian submarine in the world capable of designing advanced sub- activity is reaching levels unseen since the end of marines and the majority of them are European.
    [Show full text]
  • WATCH February 2019 Foreign News & Perspectives of the Operational Environment
    community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/fmso/ Foreign Military Studies Office Volume 9 Issue #2 OEWATCH February 2019 FOREIGN NEWS & PERSPECTIVES OF THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT EURASIA INDO-PACIFIC 3 Radios in the Russian Ground Forces 21 Chinese Military Launches Largest-Ever Joint Logistics 50 IRGC: Iran Can Extend Ballistic Missile Range 5 Northern Fleet Will Receive Automated C&C System Exercise 51 Turkey to Create Space Agency Integrating Air, Land and Sea 23 Luo Yuan Describes an Asymmetric Approach to Weaken 52 Iran’s Army Aviation Gets UAV Unit 6 The Inflatable Sentry the United States 53 Turkey to Sell ATAK Helicopters to the Philippines 7 The S-350 Vityaz Air Defense System 25 Military-Civil Fusion Cooperation in China Grows in the 54 Chinese Military and Commercial Cooperation with Tunisia 8 Bigger is Better: The T-80BVM Tank Modernization Field of Logistics 10 The Power Struggle for Control of Russia’s Arctic 27 Chinese Military Completes Release of New Set of Military AFRICA 11 The Arctic Will Have Prominent Role in 2019 Operational- Training Regulations 55 Anger in Sudan: Large Protests Against al-Bashir Regime Strategic Exercise “Center” 28 China Defends Xinjiang Program 56 Africa: Trouble Spots to Watch in 2019 12 Preparation for the 2019 Army International Games 29 Is Pakistan Acquiring Russian Tanks? 57 Can Businessmen Bring Peace in Gao, Mali? 13 Cossacks – Hybrid Defense Forces 30 Russia to Deploy Additional Anti-Ship Missile Batteries 58 Chinese Weapons in Rwanda 14 Update on Military Church Construction Near Japan by 2020
    [Show full text]
  • OOB of the Russian Fleet (Kommersant, 2008)
    The Entire Russian Fleet - Kommersant Moscow 21/03/08 09:18 $1 = 23.6781 RUR Moscow 28º F / -2º C €1 = 36.8739 RUR St.Petersburg 25º F / -4º C Search the Archives: >> Today is Mar. 21, 2008 11:14 AM (GMT +0300) Moscow Forum | Archive | Photo | Advertising | Subscribe | Search | PDA | RUS Politics Mar. 20, 2008 E-mail | Home The Entire Russian Fleet February 23rd is traditionally celebrated as the Soviet Army Day (now called the Homeland Defender’s Day), and few people remember that it is also the Day of Russia’s Navy. To compensate for this apparent injustice, Kommersant Vlast analytical weekly has compiled The Entire Russian Fleet directory. It is especially topical since even Russia’s Commander-in-Chief compared himself to a slave on the galleys a week ago. The directory lists all 238 battle ships and submarines of Russia’s Naval Fleet, with their board numbers, year of entering service, name and rank of their commanders. It also contains the data telling to which unit a ship or a submarine belongs. For first-class ships, there are schemes and tactic-technical characteristics. So detailed data on all Russian Navy vessels, from missile cruisers to base type trawlers, is for the first time compiled in one directory, making it unique in the range and amount of information it covers. The Entire Russian Fleet carries on the series of publications devoted to Russia’s armed forces. Vlast has already published similar directories about the Russian Army (#17-18 in 2002, #18 in 2003, and #7 in 2005) and Russia’s military bases (#19 in 2007).
    [Show full text]
  • Trends in Missile Technologies 39 the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Douglas Barrie
    King’s Research Portal Document Version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link to publication record in King's Research Portal Citation for published version (APA): Brockman, K., Bauer, S., Boulanin, V., & Lentzos, F. (2019). New developments in biology. In Conference Reader: Capturing Technology. Rethinking Arms Control. German Federal Foreign Office. https://rethinkingarmscontrol.de/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019.-Capturing-Technology.Rethinking-Arms- Control_-Conference-Reader.pdf Citing this paper Please note that where the full-text provided on King's Research Portal is the Author Accepted Manuscript or Post-Print version this may differ from the final Published version. If citing, it is advised that you check and use the publisher's definitive version for pagination, volume/issue, and date of publication details. And where the final published version is provided on the Research Portal, if citing you are again advised to check the publisher's website for any subsequent corrections. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the Research Portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognize and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. •Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the Research Portal for the purpose of private study or research. •You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain •You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the Research Portal Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact [email protected] providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.
    [Show full text]
  • Russia and Strategic Non-Nuclear Deterrence Capabilities, Limitations and Challenges
    Russia and strategic Briefing Paper non-nuclear deterrence Russia and Eurasia Programme Capabilities, limitations July 2021 and challenges Summary — An analysis of Russian military theory and practice suggests that Russia’s views have undergone an evolution, moving from reliance on nuclear deterrence towards a greater emphasis on non-nuclear deterrence. The development of Russia’s new long-range precision-guided weapons strongly supports the notion of such a shift. — At the same time, Russia is pressing ahead with the development of both non-nuclear and nuclear capabilities. It ceaselessly emphasizes its nuclear weapons, and its nuclear projects continue to proliferate. — In Russian theory and practice, nuclear and non-nuclear (conventional) deterrence are inextricably linked. A picture emerges of a flexible package of capabilities, with non-nuclear strategic systems complementing non-strategic and strategic nuclear weapons. — In anything less than large-scale high-intensity warfare, Russia’s non-nuclear strategic deterrent is valid conceptually and has clear practical utility. — This paper examines Russian non-nuclear deterrence in its primary, military manifestations. It outlines the capabilities involved in the exercise of non-nuclear deterrence and explores its potential limitations as well as its ambiguities. Studying these nuances offers a way to gain a fuller understanding of the challenges that they present, including for NATO. Valeriy Akimenko Russia and strategic non-nuclear deterrence Capabilities, limitations and challenges Introduction An analysis of Russian military theory and practice suggests that Russia’s views have undergone an evolution, moving from reliance on nuclear deterrence towards a greater emphasis on non-nuclear deterrence. Uncertainty surrounds this emphasis, both conceptually and practically.
    [Show full text]
  • Russia’S Presence Eldin Inthe the Military Fi That October, Russia Dispatched Two Tu-160 Strategic Middle East and Africa Has Been Growing
    Part 1 Security Environment Surrounding Japan Section 4 Russia ❶ General Situation ● President Vladimir Putin, who has been seeking the revival sanctions—has emerged among some of the countries with of Russia as a strong and infl uential power, successfully a close economic relationship to Russia. On the other hand, achieved reelection in 2018. In his inaugural address in May Russia’s ability to withstand sanctions has been growing, of that same year, President Putin stated that Russia is a as it has promoted import substitution, while on the foreign strong, active and infl uential participant in international life, policy front, President Vladimir Putin has taken the stance and that the country’s security and defense capability are that “there are other organizations which play an important Chapter reliably secured. He also stated that quality of life, wellbeing, role in world affairs” and the country has been demonstrating 2 security and health were his main goals, and that Russia has a growing presence in the G20 and multilateral diplomatic risen like a phoenix a number of times throughout history, forums in which Western countries do not participate, such Defense Policies of Countries Defense Policies and believes it would achieve a breakthrough again. as the SCO and the association of fi ve major emerging At the annual presidential address to the Federal economies (BRICS: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Assembly of Russia in March of that same year, held prior to Africa). the presidential election, President Putin said, “Russia ranks In addition, Russia’s presence in the military fi eld in the among the world’s leading nations with a powerful foreign Middle East and Africa has been growing.
    [Show full text]
  • Border Management Reform in Transition Democracies
    Border Management Reform in Transition Democracies Editors Aditya Batara G Beni Sukadis Contributors Pierre Aepli Colonel Rudito A.A. Banyu Perwita, PhD Zoltán Nagy Lieutenant-Colonel János Hegedűs First Edition, June 2007 Layout Front Cover Lebanese-Israeli Borders Downloaded from: www.michaelcotten.com Printed by Copyright DCAF & LESPERSSI, 2007 The Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces FOREWORD Suripto, SH Vice Chairman of 3rd Commission, Indonesian House of Representatives And Chariman of Lesperssi Founder Board Border issues have been one of the largest areas of concern for Indonesia. Since becoming a sovereign state 61 years ago, Indonesia is still facing a series of territorial border problems. Up until today, Indonesia has reached agreements with its neighbouring countries related to demarcation and state border delineation. However, the lack of an unequivocal authority for border management has left serious implications for the state’s sovereignty and its citizen’s security. The Indonesian border of today, is still having to deal with border crime, which includes the violation of the territorial border, smuggling and terrorist infiltration, illegal fishing, illegal logging and Human Rights violations. These kinds of violations have also made a serious impact on the state’s sovereignty and citizen’s security. As of today, Indonesia still has an ‘un-settled’ sea territory, with regard to the rights of sovereignty (Additional Zone, Economic Exclusive Zone, and continent plate). This frequently provokes conflict between the authorised sea-territory officer on patrol and foreign ships or fishermen from neighbouring countries. One of the principal border problems is the Sipadan-Ligitan dispute between Indonesia and Malaysia, which started in 1969.
    [Show full text]
  • Former Warsaw Pact Ammunition Handbook, Vol 3
    NATO Explosive Ordnance Disposal Centre of Excellence FORMER WARSAW PACT AMMUNITION HANDBOOK VOLUME 3 Air Forces Ammunition Aerial projectiles, bombs, rockets and missiles TRENČÍN 2019 Slovak Republic For Official Use Only Explosive Ordnance Disposal Centre of Excellence FORMER WARSAW PACT AMMUNITION HANDBOOK VOLUME 3 Air Forces Ammunition Aerial projectiles, bombs, rockets and missiles For Official Use Only Explosive Ordnance Disposal Centre of Excellence The NATO Explosive Ordnance Centre of Excellence (NATO EOD COE) supports the efforts of the Alliance in the areas of training and education, information sharing, doctrine development and concepts validation. Published by NATO EOD Centre of Excellence Ivana Olbrachta 5, 911 01,Trenčín, Slovak Republic Tel. + 421 960 333 502, Fax + 421 960 333 504 www.eodcoe.org Former Warsaw Pact Ammunition Handbook VOL 3 – Edition II. ISBN 978-80-89261-81-9 © EOD Centre of Excellence. All rights reserved 2019 No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner without the written permission of the publisher, except in the case brief quotations embodied in articles and reviews. For Official Use Only Explosive Ordnance Disposal Centre of Excellence Foreword Even though in areas of current NATO operations the insurgency is vastly using the Home Made Explosive as the main charge for emplaced IEDs, our EOD troops have to cope with the use of the conventional munition in any form and size all around the world. To assist in saving EOD Operators’ lives and to improve their effectiveness at munition disposal, it is essential to possess the adequate level of experience and knowledge about the respective type of munition.
    [Show full text]
  • 2019 Draft DSCTC Report
    DEFENCE AND SECURITY COMMITTEE (DSC) Sub-Committee on Transatlantic Defence and Security Cooperation (DSCTC) EVOLVING SECURITY IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC Draft Report by Nicholas SOAMES (United Kingdom) Rapporteur 077 DSCTC 19 E | Original: English | 23 April 2019 Until this document has been adopted by the Defence and Security Committee, it only represents the views of the Rapporteur. 077 DSCTC 19 E TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 2 II. IMPORTANCE OF THE ATLANTIC ....................................................................................... 2 III. THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF THE GIUK-N GAP AND NEW RUSSIAN PRESENCE AND CAPABILITIES .............................................................................................................. 3 A. INCREASED RUSSIAN CAPABILITIES AND PRESENCE........................................... 3 B. RUSSIA IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND ARCTIC ..................................................... 4 C. THE NORTHERN FLEET AND RUSSIAN DEFENCE ARCHITECTURE IN THE ATLANTIC .................................................................................................................... 5 IV. NATO’S NORTH ATLANTIC PRESENCE AND NEW INITIATIVES ....................................... 5 A. NATO MARITIME COMMAND ...................................................................................... 6 B. ICELAND AND RENEWED NATO ANTI-SUBMARINE EFFORTS ............................... 7 V. INTERIM
    [Show full text]
  • Practical Aspects of Cooperation Between the State Border Guard of Latvia and Federal Security Service Border Guard Service of Russian Federation
    PRACTICAL ASPECTS OF COOPERATION BETWEEN THE STATE BORDER GUARD OF LATVIA AND FEDERAL SECURITY SERVICE BORDER GUARD SERVICE OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION Jekaterina Kuprijanova1, Juris Livdāns2 Iluta Arbidāne3 1 State Border Guard, Latvia, e-mail: [email protected] 2State Border Guard, Latvia, e-mail: [email protected] 3 Rezekne Academy of Technologies, Latvia, e-mail: [email protected] Abstract. One of the main State Border Guard priorities is to maintain and develop the state border guarding system, according to the European Union external borders requirements, by fulfilling the conditions of the Schengen acquis. Schengen acquis provides that international cooperation in the field of border security can have multilateral, bilateral and local dimensions. In this context, an agreements concluded with bordering countries on cooperation in the field of border management is an effective tool to strengthen border security (EU Schengen Catalogue, 2002). In research as methodology are used scientific literature in the field of international law, treaties and agreements, the law of the Republic of Latvia, the State border guard of the internal regulations and the State border guard of unpublished materials. The Republic of Latvia and the Russian Federation cooperate in the field of development and implementation of coherent measures for the border control. Cooperation with RF is executed based on treaties and agreements concluded, as well, maintaining contacts between competent representatives of both countries at various management levels. The extensive cooperation between neighbouring countries on maintenance of security at the border results in the elucidation of the incidents occurring at the state border and other relevant issues, at the same time providing stability and security at the common border.
    [Show full text]
  • Safe Havens in Syria: Missions and Requirements for an Air Campaign
    SSP Working Paper July 2012 Safe Havens in Syria: Missions and Requirements for an Air Campaign Brian T. Haggerty Security Studies Program Department of Political Science Massachusetts Institute of Technology [email protected] Copyright © July 15, 2012 by Brian T. Haggerty. This working paper is in draft form and intended for the purposes of discussion and comment. It may not be reproduced without permission of the copyright holder. Copies are available from the author at [email protected]. Thanks to Noel Anderson, Mark Bell, Christopher Clary, Owen Cote, Col. Phil Haun, USAF, Col. Lance A. Kildron, USAF, Barry Posen, Lt. Col. Karl Schloer, USAF, Sidharth Shah, Josh Itzkowitz Shifrinson, Alec Worsnop and members of MIT’s Strategic Use of Force Working Group for their comments and suggestions. All errors are my own. This is a working draft: comments and suggestions are welcome. Introduction Air power remains the arm of choice for Western policymakers contemplating humanitarian military intervention. Although the early 1990s witnessed ground forces deployed to northern Iraq, Somalia, and Haiti to protect civilians and ensure the provision of humanitarian aid, interveners soon embraced air power for humanitarian contingencies. In Bosnia, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO’s) success in combining air power with local ground forces to coerce the Serbs to the negotiating table at Dayton in 1995 suggested air power could help provide an effective response to humanitarian crises that minimized the risks of armed intervention.1 And though NATO’s
    [Show full text]
  • Ye Intruders Beware: Fantastical Pirates in the Golden Age of Illustration
    YE INTRUDERS BEWARE: FANTASTICAL PIRATES IN THE GOLDEN AGE OF ILLUSTRATION Anne M. Loechle Submitted to the faculty of the University Graduate School in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of the History of Art Indiana University November 2010 Accepted by the Graduate Faculty, Indiana University, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Doctoral Committee _________________________________ Chairperson, Sarah Burns, Ph.D. __________________________________ Janet Kennedy, Ph.D. __________________________________ Patrick McNaughton, Ph.D. __________________________________ Beverly Stoeltje, Ph.D. November 9, 2010 ii ©2010 Anne M. Loechle ALL RIGHTS RESERVED iii Acknowledgments I am indebted to many people for the help and encouragement they have given me during the long duration of this project. From academic and financial to editorial and emotional, I was never lacking in support. I am truly thankful, not to mention lucky. Sarah Burns, my advisor and mentor, supported my ideas, cheered my successes, and patiently edited and helped me to revise my failures. I also owe her thanks for encouraging me to pursue an unorthodox topic. From the moment pirates came up during one of our meetings in the spring of 2005, I was hooked. She knew it, and she continuously suggested ways to expand the idea first into an independent study, and then into this dissertation. My dissertation committee – Janet Kennedy, Patrick McNaughton, and Beverly Stoeltje – likewise deserves my thanks for their mentoring and enthusiasm. Other scholars have graciously shared with me their knowledge and input along the way. David M. Lubin read a version of my third chapter and gave me helpful advice, opening up to me new ways of thinking about Howard Pyle in particular.
    [Show full text]