FIRE AND ICE A New Maritime Strategy for NATO’s Northern Flank DecemberJuly 2018 2018 0 Fire and Ice - A New Maritime Strategy for NATO's Northern Flank Copyright: Human Security Centre, 2018 London, UK For further information, please contact: [email protected] Author: Dr Rowan Allport [email protected] Cover images: Top – Royal Norwegian Navy frigate HNoMS Fridtjof Nansen (Source: Norwegian Ministry of Defence) Bottom: Royal Navy submarine HMS Astute (Source: UK MoD/Crown Copyright/OGL) 1 Fire and Ice - A New Maritime Strategy for NATO's Northern Flank The Human Security Centre (HSC) is an independent international affairs think- tank based in London, with interests in foreign, defence and security policy. Our mission is to address current and emerging threats to human security and to promote an international society where individuals and communities can live free from fear, free from want and free from indignity. The HSC advances the concept of human security as a necessary supplement to traditional state security and as a central pillar of modern foreign policy in the twenty-first century. It emphasises the importance and universality of human rights and fundamental freedoms, promotes democratic values and the rule of law, and warns against the dangers of isolationism. To further its aims, the HSC undertakes analytical, policy-relevant and solution-oriented research into critical human insecurities – particularly political repression, religious persecution, human rights violations, mass atrocity crimes, armed conflicts and terrorism – for the public benefit, to educate the public and relevant stakeholders, and to inform foreign and security policy. The HSC engages with governments, intergovernmental and non-governmental organisations, and other partners to advance people-centred, context-specific and prevention-oriented solutions. It produces a wide range of digital publications, submits evidence to Parliamentary inquiries, provides advisory support to policymakers, and offers commentary to international media outlets. POLICY EXPERTISE Security and Defence: analysis and commentary on foreign and defence policy, national and international security, counter-terrorism and cyber security, with strong expertise on the MENA region. Global Governance: analysis and commentary based on international humanitarian, human rights and criminal law, and addressing developments at intergovernmental organisations, such as the UN and ICC. Religion and Politics: generating greater awareness of freedom of religion and belief issue, monitoring threats to this freedom around the world, and exploring the relationship between religion and violence The HSC has a strong academic and political network in the UK, EU, US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and India. Our work regularly informs Lords and Commons reports in the UK; and our staff has worked on key assignments for international organisations, such as the UN, EU and the Commonwealth. HSC Research Fellows have featured in a variety of news publications, such as The Guardian, The Independent, The Telegraph, The Spectator, The New York Times, The Hill, IB Times and Evening Standard, and on television news outlets, such as the BBC, Channel 4, Sky News, Al Jazeera and CNN . 2 Fire and Ice - A New Maritime Strategy for NATO's Northern Flank Content Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 5 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................ 8 Background: NATO’s Northern Flanks and Maritime Strategy .............................................................. 9 The Cold War: 1947-1989 ................................................................................................................................. 9 Post-Cold War: 1989-2014 ............................................................................................................................... 12 The Modern Strategic Context ...................................................................................................................... 16 The New Cold War: background ................................................................................................................... 16 Russia ................................................................................................................................................................ 17 Russian Defence Reforms and Procurement ........................................................................................... 17 Russian Navy ............................................................................................................................................... 18 Russian Aerospace Forces ......................................................................................................................... 20 Russian Land Forces .................................................................................................................................. 23 Russian Nuclear Forces ............................................................................................................................. 25 State Armaments Plan 2018-2027 ............................................................................................................. 25 The Russian Defence Budget .................................................................................................................... 27 Russia’s National Security Strategy and Defence Doctrine ................................................................... 27 Russia’s Naval Doctrine and Maritime Strategy ..................................................................................... 29 Russia and the Arctic .................................................................................................................................. 31 NATO ............................................................................................................................................................... 33 Post-2014 NATO activity: The Northern Flank and the Atlantic .......................................................... 33 Post-2014 NATO activity: Mainland Europe .......................................................................................... 42 The Conflict Scenario ...................................................................................................................................... 45 2024: War in the Baltic .................................................................................................................................. 45 NATO’s Posture: the Baltic Region .............................................................................................................. 46 Russian’s Posture ............................................................................................................................................ 47 A2/AD: Blockading the Baltic ....................................................................................................................... 47 Outcome ......................................................................................................................................................... 49 The Northern Flank and Maritime Realm .............................................................................................. 49 Finland and Sweden .................................................................................................................................. 50 The New Maritime Strategy ........................................................................................................................... 52 Russian Action: Interdict NATO lines of communication ........................................................................... 54 NATO Response: Secure lines of communication ....................................................................................... 56 Russian Action: Strike NATO points of vulnerability .................................................................................. 58 NATO Response: Defend points of vulnerability .......................................................................................... 61 3 Fire and Ice - A New Maritime Strategy for NATO's Northern Flank Russian Action: Strategic Defence ................................................................................................................ 64 NATO Response: Horizontal Escalation ..................................................................................................... 66 Other Maritime Theatres .............................................................................................................................. 69 The Baltic Sea ............................................................................................................................................. 69 The Black Sea ............................................................................................................................................. 70 The Mediterranean .................................................................................................................................... 70 The Pacific ................................................................................................................................................... 71 Outcome 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