Fellow Submarines by Jan Joel Andersson

32 2016 Al e x a nd e r r Z ia e ml n h ic e nko/AP/SIPA

Fellow submarines by Jan Joel Andersson

Ever since the occupation of Crimea in 2014, commercial, and military transport. Moreover, Russian military activity has increased in and the growing importance of secure maritime bor- around Europe. Russian air and land exercises have ders and the protection of vital undersea global also become more assertive and frequent compared communication cables make it both prudent and to previous years. Fighter jets of the Swedish and necessary for Europe to collectively manage, de- Finnish air forces, as well as NATO fighters pro- ter, and counter any undersea provocations. tecting the air space of the three Baltic republics of Countering enemy submarines is, however, very Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are scrambled on a difficult, time consuming and costly as the best regular basis to intercept approaching Russian air- underwater defences are submarines themselves. craft. Similarly, the Russian navy has stepped up its operations and engages in naval exercises and Complex and competitive deployments of increasing scope and scale. Containing more parts than jet airliners and be- Perhaps most worryingly to Western observers is ing more complicated than surface vessels, sub- the increase in underwater activity in the Baltic marines can be compared to space ships in their Sea and North Atlantic: senior NATO naval com- complexity. There are only a handful of companies manders have confirmed that “Russian submarine in the world capable of designing advanced sub- activity is reaching levels unseen since the end of marines and the majority of them are European. the Cold War”. In October 2014, Sweden engaged Currently, companies in France, Germany, Spain, in a seven-day submarine hunt in the Stockholm Sweden and the UK are all capable of designing archipelago in what was the biggest mobilisation submarines. With diminishing European defence of the country’s armed forces since the Cold War, budgets since the end of the Cold War, these firms and in April 2015 the Finnish Navy dropped depth have had to largely rely on exports, primarily to charges to warn-off an intruding submarine in the the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America. Most waters off Helsinki. Several submarine hunts have recently, Australia awarded French shipbuilder also been conducted by the British Royal Navy DCNS a major order for 12 new submarines af- in the waters off Scotland and in the so-called ter having considered earlier offers from German, Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom (GIUK) gap Japanese and Swedish producers. through which Russian submarines must pass before heading into the North Atlantic. However, increasing Russian undersea activities in the Baltic Sea and North Atlantic, as well as the re- Europe is heavily dependent upon free and safe cent reintroduction of submarines in the Russian sea lines of communications to support civilian, Black Sea Fleet patrolling in the Mediterranean

European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) July 2016 1 have drawn new attention to submarines in Swedish submarine producer SAAB-Kockums Europe. Italy and Turkey are in the process of in- has teamed up with the Dutch group Damen troducing new submarines to their fleets while Schelde Naval Shipbuilding to bid on the subma- France, Germany, Spain, Sweden and the UK are rine replacement programme for the Dutch navy. all currently building new submarines for their If they won, long-term cooperation between the respective navies. Currently, Norway, Poland and Netherlands and Sweden in the underwater do- the Netherlands are all looking to procure new main would follow. submarines. Today, Norway has six submarines, Poland five and the Netherlands four but none of …and in the air them has the money to replace their ageing boats one for one. In fact, Norway is planning a future The return of significant Russian undersea activ- fleet of probably four, Poland is said to plan an ity in northern Europe has also revived the is- order of three and the Netherlands will perhaps sue of how to counter threats by other means only order two, at least to begin with. Given the than submarines. Unfortunately, the current cost of building submarines and the complexity state of European ASW assets is dismal, but this of anti-submarine warfare (ASW), there should does, however, provide ample opportunities for be plenty of opportunities for European collabo- European cooperation. Years of neglect after the ration in these areas. end of the Cold War have left many European navies without assets and knowledge of how to Cooperation under the surface… reliably detect, track and counter enemy submarines. Potentially, large savings could be made if two or more partner countries could commit to the same While many European countries still operate submarine design and even more could be saved submarines, there are few that have maintained if joint training, logistics and maintenance could the long-range maritime patrol aircraft (MPAs) be agreed upon. The three countries in question necessary for extended submarine hunts over the have all also expressed an interest in finding a oceans. The Netherlands sold its P3 Orion MPA partner. In fact, the Netherlands, Norway and aircraft to Germany in 2005 and the UK retired Poland are already cooperating in the procure- all of its Nimrod MPAs in 2011. Indeed, when a ment of multirole tanker-transport (MRTT) air- suspected Russian submarine was detected in the craft to be jointly owned and operated by the waters close to the main UK submarine base in three partner countries. Scotland in November 2014 and again in January 2015, the Royal Navy had to rely on NATO allies However, a major challenge in all international sending their MPAs to join the hunt. procurement cooperation is to agree on common specifications. While both Norway and Poland Many countries in Europe are in great need of operate rather small submarines for coastal op- rebuilding their capabilities related to maritime erations and have reportedly similar types of re- domain awareness. These capabilities can then quirements, there is no imminent talk of joint be used for ASW in the North Atlantic and also procurement between the two despite a pressing for monitoring the seas in the Baltic and the timeline to get new boats before the current ones Mediterranean or to safeguard sea lanes of com- need to be replaced. Meanwhile, the Netherlands munications off the coasts of Africa and beyond. is said to require much larger boats than the oth- Airborne systems like MPAs are particularly well ers (the Dutch want submarines capable of cross- suited for all these purposes but high costs pre- ing oceans), making it unclear if there is possibil- vent many countries from individually acquiring ity for cooperation among the three after all. or maintaining this capability. There is therefore a good opportunity for a cooperative European Another form of cooperation is to partner with solution to emerge. There are different models existing producers of submarines. For example, that could be used of which the NATO Airborne the German and Polish navies announced on 29 Warning and Control System (AWAC) consor- June 2016 that they have set up a joint ‘Submarine tium and the multinational C-17 Strategic Airlift Operating Authority’ that will bring the subma- Cooperation are just two good existing examples rines of the two navies under joint control (al- of pooling and sharing that works. though command over the submarines will be retained by the respective countries). If Poland Jan Joel Andersson is a Senior Analyst at the were to order its next submarines from Germany, EUISS. cooperation could clearly also be extended to training, logistics and more. Meanwhile, the

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