Undersea Warfare in Northern Europe
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COVER PHOTO BY ЛОБАНОВ ВЯЧЕСЛАВ/WIKIMEDIA COMMONS JULY 2016 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Undersea Warfare Washington, DC 20036 202 887 0200 | www.csis.org in Northern Lanham • Boulder • New York • London 4501 Forbes Boulevard Lanham, MD 20706 301 459 3366 | www.rowman.com Europe PROJECT DIRECTOR Kathleen H. Hicks AUTHORS Kathleen H. Hicks Andrew Metrick Lisa Sawyer Samp Kathleen Weinberger A Report of the CSIS INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM ISBN 978-1-4422-5967-6 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington,Ë|xHSLEOCy259676z DC 20036v*:+:!:+:! 202-887-0200 | www.csis.org Blank hn hk io il sy SY ek eh hn hk io il sy SY ek eh JULY 2016 hn hk io il sy SY ek eh hn hk io il sy SY ek eh hn hk io il sy SY ek eh Undersea Warfare in Northern Eu rope PROJ ECT DIRECTOR AUTHORS Kathleen H. Hicks Kathleen H. Hicks Andrew Metrick Lisa Sawyer Samp Kathleen Weinberger A REPORT OF THE CSIS INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM —-1 Lanham • Boulder • New York • London —0 —+1 594-66143_ch00_3P.indd 1 7/21/16 5:16 PM hn hk io il sy SY ek eh hn hk io il sy SY ek eh About CSIS hn hk io il sy SY ek eh hn hk io il sy SY ek eh For over 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has worked hn hk io il sy SY ek eh to develop solutions to the world’s greatest policy challenges. Today, CSIS scholars are providing strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a better world. CSIS is a nonprofit organ ization headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220 full- time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analy sis and develop policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international institutions focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy and climate to global health and economic integration. Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in November 2015. Former U.S. deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre has served as the Center’s president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2016 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. ISBN: 978-1-4422-5967-6 (pb); 978-1-4422-5968-3 (eBook) Center for Strategic & International Studies Rowman & Littlefield 1616 Rhode Island Ave nue, NW 4501 Forbes Boulevard Washington, DC 20036 Lanham, MD 20706 -1— 202-887-0200 | www . csis . org 301 - 459 - 3366 | www . rowman . com 0— +1— 594-66143_ch00_3P.indd 2 7/21/16 5:16 PM hn hk io il sy SY ek eh Contents hn hk io il sy SY ek eh hn hk io il sy SY ek eh iv Acknowl edgments hn hk io il sy SY ek eh hn hk io il sy SY ek eh v Executive Summary vii Introduction vii Scope and Objectives 1 CHAPTER 1 | The Rus sian Navy: Undersea Activities and Objectives 3 Recent Rus sian Undersea Activities 5 Rus sian Naval Objectives 8 CHAPTER 2 | Rus sia’s Undersea Capabilities: Today and Tomorrow 8 Rus sia’s Current Capabilities 13 Shipbuilding and Maintenance 14 Rus sia’s Future Capabilities 19 CHAPTER 3 | Meeting the Rus sian Challenge 19 NATO and Partners’ Strategic Priorities 20 NATO and Partners’ Capabilities 29 Working Together 32 CHAPTER 4 | Recommendations for Countering Rus sian Undersea Activity 32 Preparing Orga nizational Structures 35 Upgrading Capabilities 40 Enhancing Posture 41 Appendix A. Key Submarine Technologies: A Primer 45 Appendix B. Capability Recommendation Matrix 48 About the Authors —-1 —0 —+1 III 594-66143_ch00_3P.indd 3 7/21/16 5:16 PM hn hk io il sy SY ek eh hn hk io il sy SY ek eh hn hk io il sy SY ek eh hn hk io il sy SY ek eh hn hk io il sy SY ek eh Acknowl edgments The proj ect director and the authors would like to thank the numerous experts in Finland, Poland, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States for sharing their time and insights at vari ous points throughout the study pro cess. In par tic u lar, the CSIS team thanks the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA), the National Centre for Strategic Studies (NCSS), and the Royal United Ser vices Institute (RUSI) for helping facilitate a series of productive meetings in Finland, Poland, and the United Kingdom, respectively. This study has been dramatically improved by insights shared at workshops in the countries mentioned as well as in the United States. Fi nally, the study team is grateful to Saab North Amer i ca, which sponsored this work and saw the value in growing a more detailed knowledge of Rus sian undersea activities and improving allied and partner responses. The team is deeply appreciative of Saab’s respect for our intellectual in de- pen dence at each step along the way. The content and recommendations presented— including any errors— remain solely those of the authors. -1— 0— +1— IV 594-66143_ch00_3P.indd 4 7/21/16 5:16 PM hn hk io il sy SY ek eh hn hk io il sy SY ek eh hn hk io il sy SY ek eh hn hk io il sy SY ek eh hn hk io il sy SY ek eh Executive Summary Rus sia is expanding its undersea operations as part of a broader strategy of coercion aimed at its neighbors, the North Atlantic Treaty Or ga ni za tion (NATO), and the United States. Rus sia has a long history of emphasizing its maritime capabilities for the purpose of strategic signaling, including the use of targeted provocations. Suspected territorial incursions in the Baltic Sea and provocative patrols in the North Atlantic have caused alarm among NATO and partner nations, in part because they have underscored the extent to which NATO and regional partner anti- submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities have atrophied since the end of the Cold War. The Rus sian Navy and its submarine force have remained somewhat insulated from the economic and personnel challenges impacting Rus sia’s broader military modernization efforts. Moscow has demonstrated an unwavering commitment to the development and maintenance of its submarine- based strategic deterrent and has emphasized nonnuclear submarine capabilities, certain surface warfare capabilities, and long- range anti- ship missiles over carrier battle groups, for example. For this reason, Rus sian submarines are generally believed to be very capable vessels when properly maintained. In Northern Eu rope, the Rus sian Navy’s use of submarines to signal presence, reach, and power achieves an effect that is disproportionate to the resources committed. NATO and partner nations do not currently possess the ability to quickly counter the Rus sian undersea challenge in much of the North Atlantic and Baltic Sea. Declining capabilities are not only to blame, however; equally problematic is the lack of integration among relevant allies and partners. An effective ASW capability will take a federated approach that integrates national and NATO platforms, sensors, and personnel in a coordinated manner. This integrated capability needs to be undergirded by a coherent and cohesive doctrine and regularly exercised to build a true capability at both a national and alliance level. Given competing priorities, tight defense bud gets, and seam issues in the Eu ro pean defense community between NATO members and the vital partner countries of Sweden and Finland, or gan i za tional reforms paired with a federated approach to capability development and small —-1 —0 —+1 V 594-66143_ch00_3P.indd 5 7/21/16 5:16 PM hn hk io il sy SY ek eh posture adjustments are needed to begin rebuilding the U.S. and Eu ro pean ASW capability in hn hk io il sy SY ek eh Northern Eu rope. hn hk io il sy SY ek eh 1. Preparing Organizational Structures: Using exclusively NATO structures may fail to prop- hn hk io il sy SY ek eh erly leverage partner capabilities and expertise. NATO together with the Nordic Defense hn hk io il sy SY ek eh Cooperation (NORDEFCO) may be able to serve a bridging function to drive interoperability and combined operational proficiency. An ASW- focused Center of Excellence could also usefully serve as a hub for research, planning, doctrine development, lessons learned, and rebuilding and integrating undersea warfare capabilities. 2. Upgrading Capabilities: In order to develop a system that is effective against new and emerging technologies, NATO and its partners need to build a multidomain, multiplatform ASW and maritime surveillance complex, ideally within a federated construct, that prioritizes payloads over platforms. The specific recommendations contained in this report bring together differ ent sensors and strike capabilities hosted on large and small, manned and unmanned, space- based, aerial, surface, and subsurface platforms. 3. Enhancing Posture: NATO can optimize its ASW posture to ensure that the right capabilities are in the right places at the right time by reopening Keflavik Naval Air Station in Iceland and encouraging Norway to reclaim and reopen its submarine support fa cil i ty at Olavsvern. The organ izations, relationships, intelligence, and capabilities that once supported a robust ASW network in the North Atlantic and Baltic Sea no longer exist.