BONUS+ Project Balticway the Potential of Currents for Environmental Management of the Baltic Sea Maritime Industry (2009–2011) Executive Summary
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BalticWay Final Report (2009–2011) Annual Report 3 (Jan – Dec 2011) BONUS+ Project BalticWay The Potential of Currents for Environmental Management of the Baltic Sea Maritime Industry Final Report 2009–2011 Annual Report 3: January– December 2011 Page 1 of 74 BalticWay Final Report (2009–2011) Annual Report 3 (Jan – Dec 2011) Table of Contents Executive Summary........................................................................................................................ 3 Project years: Synopsis and highlights ....................................................................................... 6 Scientific Results ............................................................................................................................ 8 Work Package 1 – Forcing and boundary data: ICR .................................................................. 8 Work Package 2 – Circulation modelling in the target areas: SMHI ....................................... 10 Work Package 3 – Particle trajectory and oil spill modelling: MISU ...................................... 12 Work Package 4 – Synthesis: Identification of areas of reduced risk: IFM-GEOMAR........... 14 Work Package 5 – Validation experiments: SYKE .................................................................. 17 Work Package 6 – Risk analysis and mathematics of inverse problems: IoC .......................... 19 Work Package 7 – Applications: DMI...................................................................................... 22 Work Package 8 – Management and dissemination: IoC ......................................................... 24 Appendices.................................................................................................................................... 27 Appendix 1. Peer-reviewed publications based on the BalticWay project............................... 27 Appendix 2. Dissemination at conferences............................................................................... 30 Appendix 3. Public lectures and presentations ......................................................................... 34 Appendix 4. Popular papers addressing or using the results of the BalticWay project ............ 36 Appendix 5. Distinctions .......................................................................................................... 37 Appendix 6. PhD theses fully or partially based on the BalticWay developments .................. 38 Appendix 7. Meetings and events............................................................................................. 38 Practical implementation: performance statistics 1–4 .................................................................. 42 Contributions to consultations carried out by the European Commission................................ 42 Participation in stakeholder and scientific committees............................................................. 42 Modifications made to policy documents and action plans. ..................................................... 47 Suggestions for pertinent public policies and governance........................................................ 48 Comparison with original research plan ....................................................................................... 50 Comparison with original financial plan....................................................................................... 52 Appendix 8. Team composition................................................................................................ 53 Appendix 9. Deliverables.......................................................................................................... 54 Appendix 10. Added deliverables............................................................................................. 55 Influence of third party results...................................................................................................... 55 Further research and exploitation of the results............................................................................ 57 Background for the statistical information ............................................................................... 59 Use of infrastructure ................................................................................................................. 73 Page 2 of 74 BalticWay Final Report (2009–2011) Annual Report 3 (Jan – Dec 2011) BONUS+ Project BalticWay The Potential of Currents for Environmental Management of the Baltic Sea Maritime Industry (2009–2011) Executive Summary The BalticWay consortium consists of eight teams from five Baltic Sea countries: Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE, led by Dr Kai Myrberg); Department of Meteorology, University of Stockholm (MISU, Prof Kristofer Döös); Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI, Dr Markus Meier); Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI, Dr Jun She); Institute for Coastal Research, HZ Geesthacht (ICR, Prof Emil Stanev); Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at the University of Kiel (IFM-GEOMAR, Dr Andreas Lehmann); Laser Diagnostic Instruments, Estonia (LDI, Dr Sergey Babitchenko). The activities were coordinated by the Institute of Cybernetics at Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia (IoC, Prof Tarmo Soomere). This project reflects the cooperative and highly interdisciplinary research needs of sustainable development and effective stewardship of the Baltic Sea. It was aimed at preventive reduction of remote risks caused by a release of adverse impact into the sea surface and further transported by surface currents to vulnerable or valuable sea areas (such as spawning, nursing or also tourist areas). Proper handling of such environmental risks is exceptionally important in medium-sized particularly vulnerable sea areas hosting intense ship traffic such as the Baltic Sea, and especially the narrow Gulf of Finland. Pursuing a long-term substantial decrease in the anthropogenic impact on biodiversity, particularly on fragile ecosystems, and greatly reduced costs of accidents, the BalticWay core objective was to establish key components of a reliable, robust and low-cost technology for the environmental management of shipping (like optimising ship routes in terms of safety and length), offshore industry, and coastal engineering activities. A substantial decrease in environmental risks is possible by minimizing the consequences of potential accidents beforehand by placing various activities in the safest offshore areas. Our approach is based on a smart use of semi-persistent current patterns, which considerably affect pollution propagation as well as drift of various items (vessels without propulsion, rescue boats, lost containers, etc.). These patterns make the probability of transport of dangerous substances from different open sea areas to vulnerable sections highly variable. For certain areas of reduced risk this probability is relatively small, while the (re)-direction of activities to these areas often incurs very limited additional costs. The systematic quantification of the potential of different sea areas to be a source of danger to the environment through current-driven transport involves solving an inverse problem of pollution propagation. Such problems are frequently mathematically ill-posed and no universal method exists for solving them. BalticWay developed an approximate solution through extensive analysis of a large number of numerically simulated particular solutions to the associated direct problem of propagation of adverse impacts – Lagrangian trajectories of selected water particles (equivalently, passively advected tracers). Coastal areas were used as a generic model for valuable regions. The developed technology contains four key components: (i) an eddy-resolving, high- resolution circulation model; (ii) an advanced scheme for tracking Lagrangian trajectories of Page 3 of 74 BalticWay Final Report (2009–2011) Annual Report 3 (Jan – Dec 2011) water or pollution particles; (iii) a technique for the calculation of quantities characterising the potential of different sea areas to supply adverse impacts; (iv) methods to construct the optimum fairway. Several novel measures were introduced to express environmental gain, e.g., in terms of the probability of pollution transport to the vulnerable areas and the time (particle age) it takes the pollution to reach these areas. The entire approach is based on the analysis of certain statistical features of current- induced transport. Since their outcome is not always explicit, one of the major challenges consisted in further developing techniques for the use of statistical information in solving dynamical problems. Circulation simulations – with a very high resolution necessary for adequately describing the key features of meso-scale motions – provided detailed information about the extreme complexity of water motions. They have substantially improved our understanding of the current patterns in the Baltic Sea, leading to better knowledge of geophysical forcing of pollution transport and contributing to the predictive capacity of circulation and operational models. In parallel, we have developed and applied knowledge systems for effectively tracking huge amounts of information about current-driven transport. The use of Lagrangian trajectories made it possible to identify a number of concealed transport features, which cannot be inferred from the analysis of Eulerian velocity or from even massive measurements. Novel mathematical methods (e.g. introducing finite-time compressibility