Structuring Conflict in the Arab World Incumbents, Opponents, and Institutions

This book examines how ruling elites manage and manipulate their political opposition in the Middle East. In contrast to discussions of government–opposition relations that focus on how rulers either pun- ish orco-opt opponents, this book focuses on the effect of institutional rules governing the opposition. It argues that rules determining who is and is not allowed to participate in the formal political arena affect not only the relationships between opponents and the state, but also those between various opposition groups. This produces different dynamics of opposition during prolonged economic crises. It also shapes the in- formal strategies that ruling elites use toward opponents. The argument is presented using a formal model of government–opposition relations. It is demonstrated in the cases of Egypt under Presidents Nasir, Sadat, and Mubarak; Jordan under King Husayn; and under King Hasan II.

Ellen Lust-Okar is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at Yale University. She received her M.A. in Middle Eastern stud- ies and her Ph.D. in political science from the University of Michigan. She has studied and conducted research in Jordan, Morocco, Israel, Palestine, and Syria, and her work examining the relationships between states and opposition has appeared in Comparative Politics, Compara- tive Political Studies, the International Journal of Middle East Studies, Middle Eastern Studies, and other volumes. She is currently working on a second manuscript, Linking Domestic and International Conflict: The Case of Middle East Rivalries, with Paul Huth at the University of Michigan. Politics, as a practice, whatever its professions, has always been the systematic organization of hatreds. – Henry Brooks Adams Structuring Conflict in the Arab World

Incumbents, Opponents, and Institutions

ELLEN LUST-OKAR Yale University    Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo

Cambridge University Press The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge  , UK Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521838184

© Ellen Lust-Okar 2005

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List of Figures and Tables page vii Acknowledgments ix A Note on the Use of Language xiii Abbreviations xv

Introduction 1 Economic Crises, Political Demands 2 SoCs in Jordan, Morocco, and Egypt 6 The Methodology 16 Outline of the Work 20 1 The Manipulation of Political Opposition 22 Assuming a Unified Opposition 23 The State 26 Institutions 29 Why These Oversights? 32 On Incumbents, Opponents, and Institutions 34 2 Structures of Contestation 36 Drawing the Lines: Illegal and Legal Political Opponents 37 Divided and Unified SoCs 38 SoCs in Monarchies: The Cases of Jordan and Morocco 40 Managing the Opposition: Strategies of Rule in Jordan and Morocco 49 Unified and Divided SoCs in Jordan and Morocco 59 Distinctions in Dominant-Party Regimes: Egypt Un