Implications of Urban Expansion on Land Use and Land Cover: Towards Sustainable Development of Mega Manila, Philippines
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Implications of urban expansion on land use and land cover: towards sustainable development of Mega Manila, Philippines Binaya Kumar Mishra, Kafungwa Mebeelo, Shamik Chakraborty, Pankaj Kumar & Arjun Gautam GeoJournal Spatially Integrated Social Sciences and Humanities ISSN 0343-2521 GeoJournal DOI 10.1007/s10708-019-10105-2 1 23 Your article is protected by copyright and all rights are held exclusively by Springer Nature B.V.. This e-offprint is for personal use only and shall not be self-archived in electronic repositories. If you wish to self-archive your article, please use the accepted manuscript version for posting on your own website. You may further deposit the accepted manuscript version in any repository, provided it is only made publicly available 12 months after official publication or later and provided acknowledgement is given to the original source of publication and a link is inserted to the published article on Springer's website. The link must be accompanied by the following text: "The final publication is available at link.springer.com”. 1 23 Author's personal copy GeoJournal https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-019-10105-2 (0123456789().,-volV)( 0123456789().,-volV) Implications of urban expansion on land use and land cover: towards sustainable development of Mega Manila, Philippines Binaya Kumar Mishra . Kafungwa Mebeelo . Shamik Chakraborty . Pankaj Kumar . Arjun Gautam Ó Springer Nature B.V. 2019 Abstract Planning of land use and infrastructure in built-up area experienced the highest net gain of advance for a population that is projected to grow 90.96%. Two future scenario maps were projected to rapidly is highly important for its sustainable devel- indicate the potential effects of urban expansion on opment. A correlative approach of land use shifts and forested areas near study area. Urban expansion was infrastructure design is perhaps the best sustainable predicted to expand by 897.16 sq. km (36% gain) with urban development option that can be made at present. protected area scenario. Contributions to this gain This paper is aimed at suggesting policy foresight, in were projected to come from agricultural land of terms of infrastructure and land use management of 274.94 sq. km, identified as one of the major contrib- Mega Manila. Using Land Change Modeller, this utors to urban expansion. Following the analysis, the study assessed landscape pattern, change process and paper argues that land use management plan should be future scenario of land changes in the study area. The revised in the Mega Manila city to reduce the loss of land use/landscape change pattern, with vulnerability protected areas and anthropogenic impacts. analysis and predicting 2030 land use maps, enabled us to understand impacts of urban expansion on Keywords Land use change Á Vulnerability Á Urban different land use sectors. Overall analysis of gains planning Á Manila and losses in different land use categories across different sectors between 1989 and 2010 indicated that Introduction B. K. Mishra Á A. Gautam School of Engineering, Pokhara University, Lekhnath, Considering the spatio-temporal scale of its effect, Nepal urbanization is assumed as biggest anthropogenic K. Mebeelo alteration on earth and its environment (Patra et al. Lusaka Water Security Initiative, Lusaka, Zambia 2018). According to the World Economic and Social survey report (2013), about 2.5 billion people were S. Chakraborty Faculty of Sustainability Studies, Hosei University, added to the global urban population between 1950 Tokyo, Japan and 2010. This included a net addition of 1.3 billion people to small urban centres, 632 million people to & P. Kumar ( ) medium urban centres, and 570 million people to large Natural Resources and Ecosystem Services, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Kanagawa, Japan urban centres. Since the declaration of human rights in e-mail: [email protected] 1948, cities and towns are believed to be a basis of 123 Author's personal copy GeoJournal primary living standards because of the many benefits approach. According to Helming et al. (2008), city spaces provide to the improvement of human sustainability impact assessments (SIA) is inherently wellbeing (Human Development Report 2016). The difficult because they often require researchers and United Nations Population Division marked 2007 as a policy advisors to compare things that are not easily year when the number of people living in urban areas compared. It is argued that understanding cities’ became more than half of the world’s total population. sustainability includes social and economic develop- The global urban population has further been pre- ment, environmental management and urban gover- dicted to exceed 70% by 2050, estimated to be 6.25 nance. Several studies have explained that a high billion, and about 80% of this figure has been population density and compact urban design require projected to live in developing nations and highly walkable neighbourhoods and mass transit alternatives concentrated in Africa and Asia (UNDESA 2014). (Kenworthy 2019). Ismail (2014) reported that at regional level, over the Sustainable city design considers the environmen- past decades, the south-east Asian region has seen tal land use patterns’ impacts, accepting that the progressive increase in both the geographic and people living in any city minimise their inputs of population size of its cities, with a doubling period energy, water, food and waste output, air pollution of 25 years (760 million in 1985, to 1.6 billion by (carbon emissions) and water pollution. In 2013, the 2010). However, rapid but unplanned urbanization United Nations Department of Economic and Social results into serious environmental consequences such Affairs reported that the land use patterns and as loss of crop production areas, loss of biodiversity, urbanisation have been diverse within developing increase in water scarcity, increase in environmental countries and between developing and developed pollution, reduced food security, and deterioration in countries. Urban expansion in developing countries people’s living standard among others. Rapid urban- has followed a rapid pace and concentrated in capital ization also, however has positive impacts such as rise cities. Seto et al. (2010) argued that concentrated in land value, job opportunities. Henceforth Rapid populations can save land for agriculture, wildlife and urbanization deserve better and pro-active attention habitat by using less land for urban development. (Mundhe and Jaybhaye 2014; Wang et al. 2016). However, the trade-offs between urban opportunity, City planning designs that are believed to support urban sustainability, urban governance and environ- anthropogenic impacts on earth’s natural systems is mental challenges of the 21st century such as climate reported largely lacking in comparison to high rate of change and unsustainable land use shifts being fuelled population growth. However, if global utilisation of by the high rates of regional population growth and natural resources is to evolve into efficient consump- demand for natural resources have become difficult to tion patterns, urban sustainability has to be a priority. foresee. This trade-off between population growth and However, achieving urban sustainability in rapidly demand for natural resources are evolving with time expanding cities with little or no control from local and achieving sustainability across all national sectors authorities is a real challenge in today’s world. strongly depends on how regional authorities respond Shlomo et al. (2011) and Bren d’Amou (2017), by wisely managing land uses, including expansion of reported that based on current density decline rates urban areas, and natural resource consumption pat- for the past decade, the world population is still terns. McDonald et al. (2008) reported that the expected to double in 43 years, and urban land use transformation of contemporary patterns of urbanisa- land cover will double in only 19 years. Considering tion: footloose international capital, urban governance this rapid expansion of urban land use research and and institutional structures, and agglomeration forces actions toward building urban resilience for complex the distance between protected areas and cities to mega-cities (the capacity of the city to function so that shrink dramatically in some regions. McDonald et al. its inhabitants, particularly the poor and vulnerable, (2008) also reported that the median distance from a survive and thrive no matter what stresses or shocks protected area to a city in Eastern Asia was predicted they encounter) is urgently needed. to fall from 43 to 23 km by 2030. Most of the protected For this reason, achieving urban sustainability or areas are likely to be impacted by the new urban transforming city designs into sustainable cities con- growth from low to moderate-income nations, where cept by 2030 requires an integrative assessment there are institutional limits to support the capacity to 123 Author's personal copy GeoJournal adapt to anthropogenic and climate change impacts of protected area, Government’s efforts to curb defor- urban expansion on land use change and forestry estation due to timber smuggling was reported largely (LUCF). ineffective Deforestation of Philippines’ forests come Therefore, as urban expansion occurs in any from both legal and illegal mining operations. Several regional or global city, it adversely affects the carbon studies have linked deforestation to soil erosion, river sink areas such as