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on Economic Partnership Projects in Developing Countries in FY2014

Study on Medium Capacity Transit System Project in Metro , The Republic of The

Final Report

February 2015

Prepared for:

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Ernst & Young ShinNihon LLC External Trade Organization

Prepared by:

TOSTEMS, Inc. Oriental Consultants Global Co., Ltd. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. Japan Association Reproduction Prohibited Preface

This report shows the result of “Study on Economic Partnership Projects in Developing Countries in FY2014” prepared by the study group of TOSTEMS, Inc., Oriental Consultants Global Co., Ltd., Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. and Japan Transportation Planning Association for Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

This study “Study on Medium Capacity Transit System Project in , The Republic of The Philippines” was conducted to examine the feasibility of the project which construct the medium capacity transit system to approximately 18km route from Sta. Mesa area through , Ortigas CBD and reach to Taytay City with project cost of 150 billion Yen. The project aim to reduce , strengthen the east-west axis by installing -guided system and form the railway network with connecting existing and planning lines.

We hope this study will contribute to the project implementation, and will become helpful for the relevant parties.

February 2015

TOSTEMS, Inc. Oriental Consultants Global Co., Ltd. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. Japan Transportation Planning Association

Project Site

Source: Study Team

List of Abbreviations

Abbreviation Full Name AFC Automatic Collection AGT Automated Guideway Transit AL Aluminium ATO Automatic Operation ATP Automatic Train Protection ATS Automatic Train Supervision B/C Ratio Benefit and Cost Ratio BCDA Bases Conversion and Development Authority BIR Bureau of Internal Revenue BLT Build-Lease-Transfer BOD Biochemical Oxygen Demand BOT Build-Operate-Transfer BRT CBD Central Business District CBTC Based Train Control CCTV Closed-circuit Television CDM Clean Development Mechanism CIF Cost, and Freight CMMS Computerized Maintenance Management System CNC Certificate of Non-Coverage CTC Centralized Traffic Control CV Crosslinked polyethylene insulated PVC sheathed cable DAO Department of Environment and Natural Resources Administrative Order DDO Department of and Highways Department Order DENR Department of Environment and Natural Resources DO Dissolved Oxygen DOTC Department of Transportation and DPWH Department of Public Works and Highways E&M Electrical and Mechanical ECAs Environmentally-Critical Areas ECC Environmental Compliance Certificate ECPs Environmentally-Critical Projects EDSA Epifanio de los Santos Avenue EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EIARC Environmental Impact Assessment Review Committee EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return EIS Environmental Impact Statement Abbreviation Full Name EMB Environmental Management Bureau ENPV Economic Net Present Value EO Executive Order EPC /Procurement/Construction EU EWR The East West Rail EWRC The East West Rail Corporation FIRR Financial Internal Rate of Return FMB Forest Management Bureau FNPV Financial Net Present Value FOCC Financial Opportunity Cost of Capital FS Feasibility Study FX FX Taxi GDP Gross Domestic Product GOP Government of Philippines GRDP Gross Regional Domestic Product HOV High Occupancy HUDCC Housing and Urban Development Coordinating Council IC IROW Right of Way IRR Implementing Rules and Regulations JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation JETRO Japan External Trade Organization JI Joint Implementation JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LAN Local Area Network LAPRAP Land Acquisition Plan and Resettlement Acton Plan LLDA Lake Development Authority LRT Transit LRTA Light Rail Transit Authority METI Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry MM Metro Manila MMDA Metro Manila Development Authority MMUTIS Metro Manila Urban Transportation Integration Study MRT Metro Rail Transit MRTC Metro Rail Transit Corporation The project for capacity development on transportation planning and database MUCEP management NEDA The National Economic and Development Authority Abbreviation Full Name NFPA National Protection Association NHA National Housing Authority NSCB National Statistical Coordination Board O&M Operation and Maintenance OCC Operation Control Center OD Origin and Destination ODA Official Development Assistance OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer PC Prestressed PCU Unit PCB Poly Chlorinated Biphenyl PD President Decree PEISS Philippines Environmental Impact Statement System PMU Project Management Unit PNR Philippine National Railways POP Persistent Organic Pollutant PPHPD Per Hour Per Direction PPP Public Private Partnership PRA Philippines Railway Authority Pre F/S Pre-Feasibility Study RA Republic Act RAP Resettlement Action Plan RC Reinforced Concrete RSS Receiving Substation SCADA Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition SDR Social Discount Rate SPC Special Purpose Company SSF Strategic Support Fund STEP Special Terms for Economic Partnership STO Semi-automated Train Operation SUS Stainless TSP Total Suspended Particular TTC Time Cost UPS Uninterruptible Supply VAT Value Added VGF Viability Gap Funding VOC Vehicle Operating Cost WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital

Table of Contents

Preface Project Site List of Abbreviations Table of Contents

Executive Summary (1) Background and Necessity of the Project ...... S-1 (2) Basic Policy for Determination of Project Contents ...... S-2 (3) Project Overview ...... S-5 (4) Implementation Schedule ...... S-8 (5) Technical Advantages of Japanese Company ...... S-8 (6) Detail Schedule and Issues for Realization of the Project ...... S-8 (7) Project Site Map ...... S-9

Chapter 1 Overview of the Host Country and Sector 1.1 Economic and Financial Circumstances ...... 1-1 1.1.1 Social Circumstances ...... 1-1 1.1.2 Economic Circumstances ...... 1-1 1.1.3 Financial Circumstances ...... 1-2 1.2 Overview of Transport Sector of the Republic of the Philippines ...... 1-5 1.2.1 Sector ...... 1-5 1.2.2 National Railway Sector ...... 1-6 1.2.3 Sector ...... 1-6 1.2.4 Sector ...... 1-7 1.3 Overview of Project Area ...... 1-8 1.3.1 General ...... 1-8 1.3.2 Road Condition ...... 1-9 1.3.3 Urban Railway Condition ...... 1-9 1.3.4 Extension Projects of Urban Railway ...... 1-12 1.3.5 Future Projects of Railway in Metro Manila ...... 1-12

Chapter 2 Study Methodology 2.1 Contents of the Study ...... 2-1 2.1.1 Objectives of the Study ...... 2-1 2.1.2 Outline of the Study ...... 2-1 2.2 Study Methodology and Organization ...... 2-2 2.2.1 Study Methodology ...... 2-2 2.2.2 Organization of the Study Team ...... 2-3 2.3 Schedule of the Study ...... 2-4 2.3.1 Overall Study Schedule ...... 2-4 2.3.2 Study Periods ...... 2-4 2.3.3 Work Activity of Field Surveys in Philippines ...... 2-6

Chapter 3 Justification, Objectives and Technical Feasibility of the Project 3.1 Background and Necessity of the Project ...... 3-1 3.1.1 Background of the Project ...... 3-1 3.1.2 Necessity of the Project ...... 3-2 3.2 For Sophistication and Rationalization of Energy Usage ...... 3-3 3.3 Various Examinations Required for Determination of the Project ...... 3-4 3.3.1 Route Selection ...... 3-4 3.3.2 Demand Forecast ...... 3-14 3.3.3 System Selection ...... 3-31 3.3.4 Depot Site Selection ...... 3-35 3.4 Project Plan Overview ...... 3-37 3.4.1 Route Plan ...... 3-37 3.4.2 Operation Plan ...... 3-44 3.4.3 Vehicle Plan ...... 3-46 3.4.4 Civil Plan ...... 3-49 3.4.5 Station Facilities Plan ...... 3-50 3.4.6 Track/Electricity/Signal/Telecommunication System Plans ...... 3-53 3.4.7 Depot Plan and Facility Plan (AFC System) ...... 3-64 3.4.8 Operation / Maintenance Management Plan ...... 3-70

Chapter 4 Evaluation of Environmental and Social Impacts 4.1 Current Analysis of Environmental and Social Aspects ...... 4-1 4.1.1 Current Conditions of Project Areas ...... 4-1 4.1.2 Current Environmental Conditions in the Philippines ...... 4-1 4.1.3 Future Predictions (If Project is NOT Implemented) ...... 4-5 4.2 Effects of Environmental Improvement Resulting from Project Implementation ..... 4-7 4.2.1 Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions ...... 4-7 4.2.2 Applicability of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) ...... 4-9 4.3 Effects on Environmental and Social Aspects Resulting from Project Implementation ...... 4-10 4.3.1 Identification of Environmental and Social Effects ...... 4-10 4.3.2 Comparative Investigation of Other Options with Smaller Effect on Environmental and Social Aspects ...... 4-16 4.3.3 Important Points for Environmental Aspects Related to Implementation of a Railway System Project in the Manila ...... 4-17 4.4 Host Country Environmental and Social Consideration Related Regulations ...... 4-19 4.4.1 Environmental Administration Organizations ...... 4-19 4.4.2 Environmental and Social Consideration Related Regulations ...... 4-20 4.4.3 Resident Relocation Procedures in the Philippines ...... 4-21 4.4.4 Procedures for Environmental Impact Assessment System Implementation ...4-22 4.5 Items the Relevant Country (Implementing Organization, Other Organizations) Must Accomplish in order to Realize Project ...... 4-25

Chapter 5 Financial and Economic Evaluation 5.1 Estimation of Project Cost ...... 5-1 5.1.1 Construction Cost ...... 5-1 5.1.2 Operation and Maintenance Cost ...... 5-6 5.2 Preliminary Economic and Financial Analyses ...... 5-9 5.2.1 Preliminary Economic Analysis ...... 5-9 5.2.2 Preliminary Financial Analysis ...... 5-14 5.3 Preliminary Analysis for Applicability of PPP Scheme ...... 5-18 5.3.1 Candidates of Implementation Scheme ...... 5-18 5.3.2 Premises for Applying PPP Scheme to the Proposed Project ...... 5-19 5.3.3 Preliminary Financial Analysis to Applying PPP Scheme ...... 5-20

Chapter 6 Planned Project Schedule 6.1 Project Implementation Schedule ...... 6-1

Chapter 7 Implementing Organization 7.1 Overview of the Partner Country’s Implementation Agency ...... 7-1 7.2 Partner Country’s Project Implementation Organization ...... 7-3

Chapter 8 Technical Advantages of Japanese Company 8.1 Global Competitiveness and Recognition of Japanese Industries in the Target Project (by Facilities, Products and Services) ...... 8-1 8.2 Description and Price of the Main Equipment Proposed to be Procured from Japan ...... 8-2 8.3 Necessary Steps in Promoting Japanese Companies’ Efforts in International Biddings ...... 8-2 Executive Summary

(1) Background and Necessity of the Project

1) Background of the Project The target area; Manila City, Mandaluyong City, City Cainta City and Taytay City, of the project is located nearby the centre of Metro Manila, focusing on the important location of transportation that connects both east-west and south-north directions. Ortigas CBD, the second commercial and business area with large- scale shopping area such as SM mega mall, is located at the east side of Mandaluyong City, and residential area is located at the west side of the city. Owing to cross the EDSA and MRT in this area, the transportation line of the east-west axis is narrow and weak, and chronic traffic congestion becomes a serious social problem. Also, Japanese industrial area and new residential area are under development in Cainta City and Taytay City at the east side of Ortigas CBD. In these circumstances, Mandaluyong City is highly- motivated for development of transportation infrastructure and mitigating of environmental load, and the introduced electrical tricycle and . On the other hand, road traffic is still growing and traffic congestion is not resolved. As for the fundamental measure for the mitigation of traffic congestion and regional development, Mandaluyong City strongly needs to install a track-guided transit system and a study for the installation of track-guided transit system was conducted by the city.

Additionally, focusing on mitigating the traffic congestion in Metro Manila, the JICA studies of “Roadmap for Transport Infrastructure Development for Metro Manila and Its Surrounding Areas (2014)” and “Preparatory Survey on Metro Manila Central Business Districts Transit System Project in the Republic of the Philippines (under studying in 2014)” are conducted, and the F/S (Feasibility Study) of each route are under the master plan stage. Those JICA studies recommended the necessity for secondary lines in addition to the MRT (Mass Rapid Transit) systems such as North South Commuter Line and line.

This study proposes installing a track-guided transit system plan with length of 18km extends from the Sta. Mesa station or V. Mapa station of LRT in Manila City through Mandaluyong City, connecting MRT Line 3, going through the east side of Ortigas CBD and reaching up to Taytay City. The above-mentioned route mentioned in the JICA Roadmap Study and it is almost the same to the route in this study.

2) Necessity of the Project This project is necessary for the following reasons. - Mitigation of road traffic congestion - Securing the safety and convenience for the residents along the route - Contributing to revitalization of economic activities from the support of railway network formation

3) For Sophistication and Rationalization of Energy Usage Owing to the modal shift from road traffic to track-guided transit system, following benefits for the sophistication and rationalization of energy usage and effects of environmental improvement are expected. - Mitigation of traffic congestion and accident - Improvement of air pollution and reduction of greenhouse gases emissions

S-1 - Improvement of urban environment by introducing track-guided system with low noise and vibration - Use of non-fossil energy and the effective use of fossil energy

(2) Basic Policy for Determination of Project Contents

1) Objectives and Outlines of the Study This study aims to mitigate the traffic congestion in metro Manila especially the section between Ortigas CBD and Taytay City, strengthen the east-west axis by installing track-guided transit system, form the railway network with connecting the exist and planned lines and contribute to the revitalization of economic activities in Metro Manila.

The study examines the feasibility of the project which construct the medium capacity transit system to approx. 20km route from Sta. Mesa area through Mandaluyong City, Ortigas CBD and reach to Taytay City.

2) Policy for the Study To determine the project contents, the study is conducted with following policies.

a) Route Selection The target route is from Taytay city at the east of Manila that passes through one of Manila’s biggest business district, Ortigas through the surroundings of Mandaluyong, a high density residential area that has heavy traffic, and then from Sta. Mesa station of the LRT Line 2 to the surroundings of Gilmore station. The basic policies for the setting of route options are as follows. - Strength the east-west axis in Metro Manila and undertaking the role of internal transportation in - Mitigation of road traffic congestion, passenger’s convenience, contributing to revitalization of economic activities and maximizing the benefits - Considering the future extension - Minimizing the land acquisition and resettlement

Based on the above policies, following 3 route options are set as shown in Figure S-1. In the geographic area of these 3 routes, the east area from the Ortigas CBD area is an identical route that passes through and above Extension. 3 route options are compared from the viewpoints of route alignment, construction space, technical disadvantage, construction cost and development plans along the route. Consequently, the route Option-2 is comparatively high evaluated and selected as the most suitable route.

The Option-2 route is planned total length of 18.4 km, with elevated section of 16.2 km and underground section of 2.2 km from west side of connecting V. Mapa station of LRT Line 2.

S-2 Figure S-1 Route Options

Source: Study Team b) Demand Forecast i) Methodology In this study, the OD data which was prepared by MMUTIS (Metro Manila urban transportation integration study, JICA) was used as base data for the demand forecast, and the current OD table was prepared by using the calibrated data. The demand of AGT was forecasted by using the type assignment model with future network including some new railway and highway projects. ii) Result of Demand Forecast Table S-1 Result of Demand Forecast Daily Number of Passenger PPHPD in Peak Hour Year (passenger/day) (passenger/hour/direction) 2023 (opening year) 230,600 9,350 2032 (after 10 years) 377,500 14,580 2042 (after 20 years) 468,000 16,650 2052 (after 30 years) 484,000 17,000 Source: Study Team c) System Selection As the basic concept, system selection is targeted urban transport system which is possible to satisfy the following roles. - Mitigate the traffic congestion - Providing high punctuality, and reducing time - Securing suitable transportation capacity

S-3 - Diversifying the selection of transportation means - Securing commuter safety - Creating harmony between its surroundings - Reducing noise and environmental issues

Generally, the transport capacity of small capacity transit system (BRT) is up to approximately 5,000 PPHPD, medium capacity transit system (, elevated LRT and AGT) is 5,000 to 20,000 PPHPD and mass transit system (conventional railway, etc.) is 20,000PPHPD and over. While the AGT introduced in overseas are slightly bigger than AGT vehicles introduced in Japan, and possible to correspond 25,000 to 32,000 PPHPD.

As for the 5 transport systems, BRT, monorail, elevated LRT, AGT and conventional railway, system comparison is conducted from the viewpoints of economic, technical and social aspects, and most suitable system is selected. Table S-2 shows the evaluation results, and the AGT is considered as the most suitable system for the proposed route.

Table S-2 Evaluation Result of System Selection Elevated Conventional Index BRT Monorail AGT LRT Railway

Demand 9,300 ～17,000 PPHPD poor good good good good

Narrow road/Curve section fair fair fair good poor Installation Space Reduction of traffic congestion poor excellent fair excellent fair

Train Easiness of changing train --- fair excellent excellent good Configuration configuration

Civil Structure Simplicity excellent good fair good fair

Structure: excellent fair fair good fair Construction Cost Elevated/Underground Stock/E&M excellent fair good fair good

Maintenance /E&M excellent fair fair good fair Noise/Vibration fair good fair excellent fair Environment Block of sunlight excellent good fair fair fair

Emergency Evacuation good fair good good good Evaluation poor fair fair excellent fair Source: Study Team

In this study, examinations are conducted for the AGT which is comparatively high evaluated in above mentioned systems.

S-4 (3) Project Overview

1) Outline of the Project Table S-3 Outline of the Project Proposed System Assuming AGT Route Length 18.4 km (elevated section: 16.2km, underground section: 2.2km) Number of Station 12 stations (elevated station: 10, underground station: 2) Opening Year 2023 Train Configuration 6 /train Transport Capacity 792 passengers/train (132 passengers/car ×6 cars) * Standing capacity = 7 passengers/m 2 Operation Approx. 5 to3 minutes Scheduled Speed Approx. 30km/h Required Time Approx. 37 minutes (V. Mapa to Taytay) Required Number of Train 24 (=144 cars) (in 2023 – 2028) 31 trains (=186 cars) (in 2029 – 2052) * 7 trains (=42 cars) will be added in 2028. Depot 6.7 ha Source: Study Team

2) Construction Cost Table S-4 Construction Cost Initial Construction Cost 1,288 million US$ (in 2017 to 2022): (=54,619 million Pesos =140,371 million Yen) Additional Rolling Stock Cost 93 million US$ (in 2028): (=3,951 million Pesos =10,153 million Yen) Total Construction Cost 1,381 million US$ (in 2017 to 2022, 2028): (=58,570 million Pesos =150,524 million Yen) Source: Study Team

3) Preliminary Economic and Financial Analyses Table S-5 Result of Economic Analysis (Social Discount Rate=15%) Economic Internal Rate of Return Benefit and Cost Ratio Economic Net Present Value (EIRR) (B/C Ratio) (ENPV) 15.5 % 1.04 28.9 (million US$) Source: Study Team

S-5 Table S-6 Result of Financial Analysis Financial Internal Rate of Return Weighted Average Cost of Capital Financial Net Present Value (FIRR) (WACC) (FNPV) 6.2 % 0.6 % 2,158.6 (million US$) Source: Study Team

4) Candidates of Implementation Scheme For the implementation of the proposed project, there are fully public project where public funds from the public sector, and a method where the private sector participates through a Public Private Partnership (PPP) approach. Table S-7 shows the candidates of implementation scheme for the project.

Table S-7 Candidates of Implementation Scheme Finance, Design and Scheme Construction/Procurement By O&M Organization Civil Structure E&M/Rolling Stock

Public Project Public Public Public

A Public Public Private

B Public Public Private Private

C Public Private Private

PPP D Public Private Private Private

E Private Private Public Private

F Private Public Private

G Private Public Public Private

Private Project Private Private Private Source: Study Team

5) Evaluation of Environmental and Social Impacts a) Effects of Environmental Improvement Resulting from Project Implementation

Calculations were made on projected environmental improvement effects (CO 2 reduction) if the AGT is constructed. Global warming assessments were made by calculating the difference between the carbon dioxide emissions that would be reduced by a shift from automobiles to AGT usage if an AGT is introduced, and the carbon dioxide generated through power production for the power to be consumed by running the AGT system. Carbon dioxide emission reduction resulting from the implementation of the AGT project are shown in Table S-8.

S-6 Table S-8 Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction by the Proposed AGT Project Reduction of carbon dioxide Carbon dioxide emissions Reduction of carbon Year emissions as a result of transition resulting from AGT operation dioxide (t-CO 2/y) from automobile traffic (t-CO 2/y) (t-CO 2/y) 2023 31,534 28,830 2,704 2030 48,146 39,081 9,065 2040 53,866 43,068 10,798 2053 63,001 43,638 19,363 Source: Study Team

It is expected that the implementation of the AGT project can contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gases

with a CO 2 reduction of 2,704 t when the AGT opens in 2023, and an estimated increased reduction in the future as a result of increased demands (increased transition from automobiles to AGT usage). b) Points to be concerned for the Environment and Social Aspects In the points expecting the impacts for the environmental and social aspects by the implementation of proposed project, there are 3 particular points to be concerned in terms of environmental and social aspects when implementing railway project in the Metro Manila which are i) land acquisition/resident relocation, ii) construction in the Laguna Lake basin, and iii) effects on drainage . i) Land Acquisition / Resident Relocation The plan is designed to minimize the need for land acquisition and resident relocation as much as possible by using the AGT installation space as roadway, however narrow road areas, curves, and other features may have effects on these requirements. Quickly implementing in accordance with Philippines land acquisition and resident relocation procedures will contribute to shortening construction periods and reducing construction costs. It is desirable to take advantage of experience in constructing LRT , LRT Line 2 and MRT Line 3 and coordinate accordingly. ii) Construction in the Laguna Lake Basin Because this project site is approximately 18 km long from Manila City to Taytay City and located in the Laguna Lake basin, it is necessary to apply for project implementation and receive authorization from the Laguna Lake Development Authority (LLDA). iii) Effects on Drainage Canals The Manila metropolitan area has drainage canals in place as an anti- measure, so it is necessary to exercise caution when implementing this project to ensure there is no effect on these drainage canals.

S-7 (4) Implementation Schedule

Figure S-2 Implementation Schedule

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1. Preparation Stage (1) METI pre-F/S (2) Detail F/S (3) EIA, RAP (4) Project approval (5) L/A (6) Selection of consultants (7) B/D, tender, contract (8) Land acquisition, resettlement, relocation 2. Construction Stage (1) Preparation works (2) D/D (3) Construction (4) Test run, Commissioning 3. Operation Preparation Stage (1) Recruitment, organization preparation (2) , training 4. Beginning of Commercial Operation Source: Study Team Source: Study Team

(5) Technical Advantages of Japanese Company

In this study, the AGT system is recommended as the most suitable system for the proposed route. Among the medium capacity transportation systems, it is assumed that BRT, monorail, elevated LRT and conventional railway are competitors to AGT. However as stated in the Section “3.3.3 System Selection” the AGT was considered to be able to perform better with a competitive edge. Especially from a technical aspect, the flexibility of AGT’s route alignment (minimum curve radius, maximum gradient) is higher than the elevated LRT, monorail and conventional railway allows site acquisitions to be kept at a minimum. It also contributes to the improvement of convenience by consolidating a town by closely placing commercial facilities near the station. In addition, even though there is a need to build an underground at the proposed route, the connection from elevated section to underground section can be shortened and construction cost becomes comparatively lower, which prevents the fragmentation of the urban district as much as possible. AGT system of Japanese company has successful introduction experiences and high reliability in the world.

(6) Detail Schedule and Issues for Realization of the Project

Figure S-3 shows the detail schedule for realization of the project.

S-8 Figure S-3 Detail Schedule for Realization of the Project

2014 2015 2016 2017 1. Preparation Stage (1) METI pre-F/S (2) Detail F/S (3) EIA, RAP (4) Project approval (5) L/A (6) Selection of consultants (7) B/D, tender, contract (8) Land acquisition, resettlement, relocation Source: Study Team

Following issues are considered as the potential risks. - Objection by the residents and organizations along the route - Resistance by the users and operators of jeepney owing to the route changes of and jeepneys - Delay risk of land acquisition and large amount of compensation in case land acquisition becomes large scale - Resistance for the project owing to the impact to road traffic during the construction period

S-9 (7) Project Site Map

Figure S-4 Project Site Map

Metro Manila The Republic of The Philippines

Source: Study Team

S-10 Chapter 1 Overview of the Host Country and Sector

1.1 Economic and Financial Circumstances

1.1.1 Social Circumstances The Republic of the Philippines is located in Southeast and composed of approx. 7,100 islands. The Philippine Sea is located in east, the South Sea is in west and the Celebes Sea is in south of the Philippines. Land area is approx. 300,000 km 2, and the population (as of 2013) is approx. 98.2 million. The population (as of 2013) of Metro Manila (capital city) is approx. 12.5. National languages are Filipino and English.

Table 1-1 Basic Information of the Philippines Country Name Republic of the Philippines Area 300,000 km 2 Population 98.2 million ( as of 2013) (Source: NSCB) Capital Manila, population of Metro Manila: 12.5 million (as of 2013) (Source: NSCB) Languages National languages: Filipino and English Approx. 80 other languages (such as Cebuano) are used. Religions Christianity (82.9%), Islam (5.1%) and others Source: JETRO Website (http://www.jetro.go.jp/world/asia/ph/basic_01/)

1.1.2 Economic Circumstances The real GDP growth rate of the Philippines marked the highest level of 7.2% (in 2013) in ASEAN, and tend to decrease in 2014. First quarter term in 2014 marked 5.6%, second quarter term is 6.4% and third quarter term is 5.3%, owing to the slower growth of service sector and minus growth of agriculture sector.

Figure 1-1 Real GDP Growth Rate

(Year)

Source: Study Team, JETRO Website (http:// http://www.jetro.go.jp/world/asia/ph/stat_01/)

The GDP per capita is growing year by year, and marked 2,790 US$ in 2013 which is nearly 3,000 US$ as indicator of dissemination of consumer durables. The unemployment rate is staying at 7% in recent years.

Amounts of import and export are increasing year by year, and direct investment receipt amounts are 6 billion

1-1 in 2011, 6.9 billion in 2012 and 6.5 billion in 2013.

Table 1-2 Basic Economic Indicators Item 2011 2012 2013 Real GDP Growth Rate (%) 3.9 6.8 7.2 (Notes) (Base year: 2000) Title GDP Total (in million pesos) 9,706,267 10,567,336 11,548,191 Title GDP Total (in million US $) 224,095 250,240 272,067 GDP Per Capita. (Title) (in US $) 2,379 2,612 2,790 Rate of Increase in Consumer Price 4.6 3.2 3.0 Index (%) (Notes) (Average of year) Consumer Price Index 126.1 130.1 134.0 (Notes) (2006=100, average of year) Unemployment Rate (%) 7.0 7.0 7.1 Management Revenue and Expenditure (International Balance of Payments 5,643 6,949 10,393 Base) (in million US$) Trade Balance (International Balance of -20,428 -18,926 -17,702 Payments Base) (in million US$) Foreign Currency Reserves (in million 67,290 73,478 75,689 US$) External Debt Burden (in million US$) 60,442 60,337 58,506 Exchange Rates 43.3131 42.2288 42.4462 (Average Value in Term, Rate for US $) Exchange Rates (End of Term Value, 43.9280 41.1920 44.4140 Rate for US$) Monetary Aggregate Rate of Increase 5.3 7.0 29.5 (%) Export Amounts (in million US$) 48,305 52,100 56,698 Japan Export Amounts (in million US$) 8,886 9,881 11,423 Import Amounts (in million US$) 60,496 62,129 62,411 Japan Import Amounts (in million US$) 6,516 6,470 5,220 Direct Investment Receipt Amounts (in 258,231 289,544 274,014 million pesos) Direct Investment Receipt Amounts (in 5,962 6,857 6,456 million US$) Source: JETRO Website (http://www.jetro.go.jp/world/asia/ph/stat_01/)

1.1.3 Financial Circumstances (1) Supplying Status of Japanese ODA Loan The status of Japanese ODA loans to Philippines in 2014 was the exchange of letters related to 2 projects with an upper limit of 68,732 million yen in December. The supply limits and supply conditions for the 2 projects are shown in Table 1-3.

1-2 Table 1-3 Supply Limits and Conditions The Project for multi-role response vessels for the Philippine Coast Guard Supplied Amount Limit (in 100 million Yen): 187.32 Interest rate (%): 0.1 / 0.01 (for consulting service) Repayment /grace period: 40 / 10 Conditions for Procurement Conditions: Tied Stand-by emergency credit for urgent recovery Supplied Amount Limit (in 100 million Yen): 500.0 Interest rate (%): 0.01 Repayment /grace period: 40 / 10 Conditions for Procurement Conditions: Untied Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan Website (http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/gaiko/oda/data/gaiyou/odaproject/asia/philippines/contents_02.html)

(2) PPP Conditions in Philippines PPP Center, which is under the control of NEDA (National Economic and Development Authority), is administrating the PPP overall meeting and PDMF (Project Development and Monitoring Facility) Board and centralizing decision-making as the PPP controlling organization. The PPP system in Philippines was formed as follow. 1990: Enacted BOT law (Republic Act No. 6957) 1994: Amended BOT law (Republic Act No. 7718) 2002: Establishment of BOT Center (Executive Order No. 144) 2010: Renamed BOT Center to PPP Center (Executive Order No. 8) Supervisory authority was changed from DTI (Department of Trade and Industry) to NEDA.

Table 1-4 shows the main PPP projects of railway sector conducted by DOTC.

1-3 Table 1-4 PPP Projects (Railway Sector) Finalization of Procurement Preparation Project Project Cost ICC NEDA Bidding Contract of Transaction of Business Structure (by (Billion Php) Approval Approval Stage Award Advisor Case/FS Implementing Agencies) LRT Line 1 Extension and O&M 64.90 C C C C C C C O&M of LRT Line 2 (No CAPEX) C C C C C O -- MTSL Project 378.33 C C C C O North-South Railway (South Line) 179.22 C C C C O LRT 1 Extension to Dasmarinas Project TBD C O Sta. Mesa-Ortigas-Angono Rail Line TBD C O Manila-East Rail Transit System Project TBD O Remarks: TBD (To be Determined), C (Completed), O (On-going) Source: ”Status of PPP Projects (as of 29 January 2015)”, PPP Center

1-4 1.2 Overview of Transport Sector of the Republic of the Philippines

1.2.1 Road Sector The road sector is the dominant mode of both passenger and traffic. The road sector carried approximately 1.71 billion passengers and 25.9 million tons of freight in 2006, representing 98% share in passenger traffic and 58% share in cargo traffic.

In terms of road infrastructure, the Philippines has 203,000 kilometers of road as of 2008. About 14.5% of this total or 29,370 kilometers are classified as national . On the other hand, local roads, consisting of provincial, municipal, city and barangay roads constitute about 85.5% of the total road kilometer in the country, which is about 173,000 kilometers.

As shown in Figure 1-2, total of 5.9 million motor vehicles including trailers were registered in the country in 2008. Based on historical trends, both the number of cars and utility vehicles are increasing at declining rates indicating significant scrappage of old units. The number of buses is declining at an average rate of 1.6%/year. Of the total number of vehicle in 2008, close to 2 million were motorcycles and tricycles, which exhibited phenomenal annual growth at the rate of 11.6%. The level of motorization is growing at a steady rate of 6%/year., driven mainly by the increase in motorcycle and tricycle ownership.

More than 56% of all registered vehicles in 2008 were concentrated in Metro Manila and its adjacent regions, which comprises the expanded Greater Capital Region (including Central and regions). In this regard, a low-carbon transport strategy could target vehicles in these regions with expected high returns on investment.

Figure 1-2 Number of Vehicles (excluding trailer) in 2000 to 2008

7,000,000

6,000,000 AAGR = 6% p.a. 5,000,000

4,000,000

3,000,000

Vehicle Population 2,000,000

1,000,000

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Car UV Bus MC/TC

Source: Land Transportation

1-5 1.2.2 National Railway Sector Inter-regional railway services are provided by the Philippine National Railways (PNR), a government-owned and controlled corporation. It operates a railway line measuring 491 km of the South Main Line from Manila to Legaspi in Albay State. It previously operated a North Main Line running from Manila to San Fernando in La Union, but this line has been closed since 1981. The PNR currently offers three types of services: long- distance passenger service, commuter service, and freight and express cargo services. The Metro Manila commuter service operates between Tutuban and Alabang for a revenue line of about 28 km. This commuter line runs north – south through the CBD (Central Business District) of Metro Manila as shown in Figure 1-3.

There was a high potential demand for the line, but the low service frequency did not enable the line to meet the . Furthermore, as the trains did not run on the schedule, the number of passengers declined from its peak of 22,000 persons/day in 1977 to about 15,000 persons/day in 1990. And in 2007, the number of passengers is only 7,500 persons/day.

Figure 1-3 Operating Section of PNR Commuter Line

Source: TTPI, LRT2 West and East Extension Ridership Study

1.2.3 Port Sector The country has 2,456 composed of 1,612 public ports, 423 private ports and 421 fishing ports. Many of these ports are extremely small and catering mainly to local fishing and passenger movements. Private ports handle more than 60% in tons of all cargo traffic, which consists largely of minerals, , cement and bulk agricultural produce.

1-6 The public ports are managed and operated by government port authorities, which are the Philippine Ports Authority (PPA), Cebu Port Authority (CPA), and the Regional Port Management Authority, local government units (LGUs) and other port-operating government authorities, such as the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority (SBMA), Cagayan Economic Zone Authority (CEZA), Poro Point Management Corporation (PPMC), and PHIVIDEC Industrial Authority (PIA). Private ports can also be categorized into commercial ports which handle third party cargoes, and non-commercial ports which handle only own-account cargoes. Major ports are typically located in key and capital towns across the country.

1.2.4 Aviation Sector As for the aviation sector, there are 85 public in the country; four of which are international airports (Ninoy Aquino International , Mactan-Cebu International Airport, Subic International Airport and Diosdado Macapagal International Airport) catering to regular international flights. There are also four alternate international airports , Davao, General Santos and Zamboanga, the first two have regular international flights. The rest are classified as trunk line, secondary and feeder airports.

The number of air passengers has been on a continued upsurge, registering 34,259,543 passenger-trips in 2007, up from 19,894,800 in 2001. However, both the volume of air cargo and the number of aircraft movement dropped in 2007 after registering highs in the previous years. More than two-thirds of the total passenger-trips and air cargo were handled at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport, the premier airport of the country.

1-7 1.3 Overview of Project Area

1.3.1 General Metro Manila is the region without any provinces (Figure 1-4). It consists of 16 cities and 1 municipality. As of 2010 census, its population is 11.85 million and the is at 18,640 people per square kilometer. It is among the world’s twenty most populous metropolitan areas. Metro Manila is the single most economically productive region, contributing 32% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and is the center of the country's industrial and commercial activities.

Figure 1-4 Configuration of the Metro Manila

Source: TTPI, LRT2 West and East Extension Ridership Study

Metro Manila is characterized by the concentration of economic, social and political activities as evidenced by the presence of 90 out of the 100 biggest corporations in the country, all major newspapers, radio and TV networks and 60% of the country's non-agricultural labor force.

Metro Manila has the largest international airport in the country. As a result it is the main gateway to the Philippines. The centrality of Manila in the air transport network means that it is a prime take-off point for foreign tourists going to other destinations within the country.

1-8 1.3.2 Road Condition The transport system in most cities in the Philippines, including the Metro Manila, is road-based. Of the total road network of 5,000 kilometers, about 1,600 are private roads, while the rest are public roads: national roads (1,000 km) and city roads (2,400 km). As for the condition of road network in Metro Manila, deteriorating road conditions and lack of proper maintenance reduce the efficiency level of the road network, thereby resulting to longer travel times and worsening traffic congestion. In addition, outdated drainage system causes flash in urban areas especially during rainy seasons.

Various urban modes are using in the Philippines. Buses and urban railways are in use mainly within Metro Manila and its surrounding areas. On the other hand, jeepney dominates as public transport mode in Metro Manila, as as in many of the larger cities in the Philippines. Other vehicles include taxis, FX vans 1, multicab 2, tricycles, and other localized transport such as the “trisikad” which is a pedal-powered tricycle.

1.3.3 Urban Railway Condition (1) Existing Railway Network Urban railway services are operated currently in Metro Manila only. Following three railway transit systems are operating. • LRT Line 1: from Roosevelt in to Baclaran in Pasay City • LRT Line 2: from Santolan in to CM Recto in the City of Manila • MRT Line 3: from North Avenue in Quezon City to Taft in Pasay City.

LRT Line 1 is operating along a 20 km system servicing the to Avenue. It currently handles and average weekday of about 492,700 passengers/day (2011), with the highest number of ridership for 2012 February 28 (Tuesday) with 658,627 passengers 3. Due to the increased ridership of LRT Line 1, a train acquisition project was conceptualized with the primary objective of expanding the LRT Line 1 capacity by 50% from a nominal carrying capacity of 18,000 passengers per peak-hour per direction to 27,000 or 235,000 additional commuters to be carried by the system daily. This objective was achieved in 2000 through the procurement of seven new, air-conditioned 4-car trains and the transformation of the existing 2-car trains to 3-car trains with corresponding modifications to the existing vehicles, systems, facilities, and structures to support the operation of the expanded system. In 2009, the Light Rail Transit Authority (LRTA) has completed “Phase II of the LRT Line 1 Capacity Expansion Project”, which effectively increased the capacity of LRT Line 1 to 40,000 passengers per hour per direction from the current capacity (Phase I) of 27,000 hourly passengers. Figure 1-5 shows the existing railway network in Metro Manila.

1 “FX van” means Asian Utility Vehicle (AUV). 2 “multicab” is the vehicle for approx. 12 passengers (similar to jeepney). 3 Source: LRTA website

1-9 Figure 1-5 Railway Network in Metro Manila

Source: LRTA Website

The Megatren, more popularly known by its generic name LRT Line 2, is a 13.8 km mass transit line that traverses five cities in Metro Manila namely Pasig, Marikina, Quezon City, San Juan and Manila) along the major thoroughfares of Marcos Highway, Aurora , Ramon , Legarda and . The Megatren started full commercial operation in May 2001. It is an Automatic Train Operation system which is at par in terms of facilities and with those in other parts of the world. It is equipped (ATC) system and CCTV system that enables the railway operator to monitor activities of passengers and employees at the stations and inside the trains. Moreover, the LRT 2 is commuter friendly and has facilities especially designed for the elderly and the persons with .

Under a BOT contract to Metro Rail Transit Corporation (MRTC), the EDSA MRT or MRT Line 3 (Metrostar Express), a 16.9 kilometer modern rail system stretching along EDSA’s from North Ave. in Quezon City to Taft Ave., Pasay City was constructed from 1998 to 2001. This Metro Rail system is designed to carry traffic in excess of 23,000 passengers per hour per direction, initially, and is expandable to accommodate 48,000

1-10 passengers per hour, per direction. The rail system has a total fleet of 73 Czech-made air-conditioned rail cars, of which up to 60 cars in three-car trains are operated daily during the peak hours. Each train can seat 216 passengers and carry under crush capacity 1,182 riders. Table 1-5 shows a summary of the main parameters of the three railway lines.

Table 1-5 Main Specifications of Railway Lines in Metro Manila Item /Description LRT Line 1 LRT Line 2 MRT Line 3 Opening year 1984 2003 1999 Structure type Elevated track with PC-I Elevated PC concrete Elevated and beams box girder underground track with PC-I beams Route length 18.1 km 12.6 km 16.9 km Number of Station 20 11 13 1,435 mm 1,435 mm 1,435 mm Minimum curve radius 170 m (main line) 175m (main line) 370m (main line) 28 m (depot) 100m (depot) 25m (depot) Maximum gradient 4.0% 5.0% 5.0% Car-body length 26,000 mm 22,500 mm 31,720 mm Car-body height 3,320 mm 3,700 mm 3,250 mm Car-body width 2,590 mm 3,200 mm 2,500 mm load 10.7 ton 16.6 ton 9.6 ton Train configuration 4 cars/train 4 units/train 3 units/train Maximum train 1,358 passenger/train 1,628 passenger/train 1,182 passenger/train capacity Maximum speed 60 km/h 80 km/h 65 km/h Car maker Original: Bombardier ROTEM () CKD Tatra (Czech) Capex I: Adtranz Capex II: Scheduled speed 38.0 km/h 32.8 km/h 30.0 km/h Signalling system ATP, ATS, ATO ATP, ATO, ATS ATP, CTC Fare Min. 12 to max. 20 pesos Min. 12 to max. 15 pesos Min. 10 to max. 15 pesos Voltage 750 V DC 1500 V DC 750 V DC Feeder system Over Head Contact Over Head Contact Over Head Contact Travel time 27.5 minutes 30 minutes 30 minutes Headway 112 sec. Min. 1.5 minutes Min .3 minutes (after Capex 2 Project) Construction cost $500 ($35/km) $850 ($61.6/km) $698 ($41.3/km) (in million US$) (3.5 billion pesos as of 1982) Source: Study Team, “Study on the monorail Project in Central Manila in the Republic of Philippines” METI, 2013

1-11 1.3.4 Extension Projects of Urban Railway (1) Line 1 Cavite Extension Project The project aims to extend the existing 20km LRT Line 1 southward by an additional 11.7km, of which approximately 10.5km will be elevated section and 1.2km will be at- section. The Extension will start from the existing line's last station at Baclaran and will traverse the cities of Parañaque and Las Piñas in South Metro Manila and reach the municipality of . The extension will initially include 8 new stations with a provision for 2 additional stations. A satellite depot for storage of light rail vehicle (LRV) and light maintenance will be located at the southern end of the line. Intermodal facilities will also be installed at high- demand stations.

The construction of the Cavite Extension Line is divided into 2 phases - the first phase shall be from Baclaran to Dr. Santos Avenue (Phase 1A) and the second phase shall be from Dr. Santos Avenue to Niyog Station (Phase 1B).

The key features of the Line 1 Cavite Extension Project, based on the project study conducted by JICA, are as follows. • Interconnectivity to the existing Line 1 at Baclaran Terminal to form a continuous line and transport more people • Compatible technology with the existing Line 1 to permit through running of trains • Integrated fare collection system, with commonality for seamless travel • Intermodal facilities at three high demand stations • Common maintenance facility for the extension and the existing Line 1 in Pasay City

(2) Line 2 East Extension Project The Line 2 East Extension Project consists of extending the elevated tracks of Line 2 by approximately 4.7 km from its current terminus in Santolan to the Masinag market in Antipolo along the center-line of Marcos Highway and provision of 2 new stations. Two stations will be constructed: (a) the MC Station straddling Imelda Avenue and adjoining Robinson’s East Mall and the Sta. Lucia East Mall in Cainta, and (b) the Masinag Station near the Masinag market at the crossroad of Marcos and Sumulong Highways. No right-of- way acquisition will be involved in this project, and no procurement of rolling stock will be necessary.

1.3.5 Future Projects of Railway in Metro Manila The following projects are being proposed for future implementation in Metro Manila.

(1) Metro Rail Transit Project The Metro Rail Transit Line 7 (MRT Line 7) will be the fourth rapid transit line in Metro Manila. The line will be 23 km long with 14 stations, and will be operated by the Universal LRT Corporation (ULC). The line will run in a northeast direction, traversing Quezon City and a part of City in Metro Manila before ending at the City of San Jose del Monte in Province. Passengers will be able to transfer to the LRT Line 1 and MRT Line 3 through the Metro Manila Integrated Rail Terminal (also known as Common Station)

1-12 that will link the three lines at North Avenue in Quezon City.

(2) North South Project The residential area in north area of Metro Manila is spreading without developing sufficient public transportation. Owing to the increase of commuter between north area and Metro Manila with buses and cars, the traffic congestion becomes serious problem in capital region. For the resolution, north south commuter rail project is planning aiming to construct approx. 52km railway between Malolos and FTI, which is a part of commuter line between of Metro Manila and capital region. The study “Preparatory Study on Airport Express Railway Project (Commuter Line Section)” was conducted by JICA in 2014, and the study mentioned that the section between Malolos and Tutuban will be constructed preferentially from the viewpoint of advantageous effect to contribute commuting Metro Manila as the transport network.

(3) EDSA Metro Project The study “Roadmap for Transport Infrastructure Development for Metro Manila and Its Surrounding Areas” was conducted by JICA in 2014, and approved by NEDA board in June 2014. In the roadmap study, infrastructure development and transport plan were organized from the cross-sectional viewpoint. And the study recommends main projects including approx. 300km railway, approx. 500km highway, rationalization of public transportation and traffic control aiming to the formation of ideal transport network in the target year of 2030.

The EDSA metro project is mentioned in the roadmap study as the strength of north-south axis for the sustainable development in Metro Manila, and planned to construct the metro approx. 75km section between San Jose del Monte in north and Dasmarinas in south along the EDSA (4th circular route).

Figure 1-6 shows the proposed routes of the future projects in Metro Manila.

1-13 Figure 1-6 Proposed Routes of the Future Projects in Metro Manila

Source: “Roadmap for Transport Infrastructure Development for Metro Manila and Its Surrounding Areas” JICA, 2014

1-14 Chapter 2 Study Methodology

2.1 Contents of the Study

2.1.1 Objectives of the Study This study aims to mitigate the traffic congestion in metro Manila especially the section between Ortigas CBD and Taytay City, strengthen the east-west axis by installing track-guided transit system, form the railway network with connecting the exist and planned lines and contribute to the revitalization of economic activities in Metro Manila.

2.1.2 Outline of the Study The study examines the feasibility of the project which construct the medium capacity transit system to approx. 20km route from Sta. Mesa area through Mandaluyong City, Ortigas CBD and reach to Taytay City.

This study is consists of field survey in Philippines and report preparation work in Japan. In the field survey, the study team visits Manila and discusses with relevant organizations the plan and the objectives of this project, collecting data and conducts site survey. Then, as part of reflecting results of field survey and discussion, the study team organizes and analyzes the collected data and prepares the study report.

2-1 2.2 Study Methodology and Organization

2.2.1 Study Methodology (1) Preparatory Work in Japan In the preparatory work, the existing reports, relevant data and information are collected, then the study team examines the applicability for this study. And the overall structure and the policy of this study are examined. Additionally, necessary data collected from the relevant authorities is coordinated.

(2) 1st Field Survey In the 1st field survey, the study team visit Embassy of Japan in the Philippines, JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency), JETRO (Japan External Trade Organization), JBIC (Japan Bank for International Cooperation), DOTC and other government organizations, railway operators in Manila, relevant cities and developers. During this visits, the study team explains the plan and the objectives of this project asking cooperation from relevant counterparts and providing the study team with specific data. Study team carries out site surveys for the planned route focusing on the traffic and road conditions and installation space.

(3) 1st Stage of Work in Japan Base on the results and data collected from 1st field survey, review and examination of study concept are conducted and prepare the draft report.

(4) 2nd Field Survey Explanation and exchange of opinions about draft report to relevant organizations of Japan in Philippines and relevant organizations of Philippines are conducted in 2nd field survey.

(5) 2nd Stage of Work in Japan Based on the received comments from 2nd field survey, the draft report is revised to circumvent these comments and the draft final report is prepared.

(6) 3rd Field Survey Explanation and exchange of opinions about draft final report to relevant organizations of Japan in Philippines and relevant organizations of Philippines are conducted in 3rd field survey.

(7) 3rd Stage of Work in Japan Based on the received comments from 3rd field survey, the draft final report is revised to circumvent these comments and the final report is prepared.

2-2 2.2.2 Organization of the Study Team Figure 2-1 shows the organization of study team.

Figure 2-1 Organization of the Study Team

Deputy project manager/ cost Transport plan Project manager estimation/ Schedule/ Demand Kiyohiro Miura (JTPA) Akihiro Yamazaki (TOS) forecast Jorge Muller (OCG)

Civil plan 1 Hiroshi Utsugi (TOS)

Civil plan 2 Makoto Hirata (TOS)

Rolling stock plan Hisashi Motoyama (MHI)

E&M plan 1 Yasukazu Tsubouchi (TOS)

E&M plan 2 Hisanori Yamaoka (TOS)

Operation and maintenance plan Assad Alamiri (OCG)

Implementation scheme plan Shouji Tanaka (TOS)

Economic and financial analysis Naomi Aoki (TOS)

Environmental and social consideration 1 Shigeru Kato (TOS)

Environmental and social consideration 2 Akitoshi Inoue (TOS)

Remarks: Coordination TOS: Tostems, Inc. Kazuhiro Iijima (MHI) OCG: Oriental Consultants Global MHI: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. JTPA: Japan Transportation Planning Association

Source: Study Team

2-3 2.3 Schedule of the Study

2.3.1 Overall Study Schedule Figure 2-2 shows the overall study schedule.

Figure 2-2 Overall Study Schedule 2014 2015 Work Activity Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. (Work in Japan) (1) Preparation (2) 1st stage work (3) 2nd stage work (4) 3rd stage work (Field survey in Philippines) (1) 1st field survey (Oct. 5 to Oct. 18) (2) 2nd field survey (Nov. 7 to Nov. 11) (3) 3rd field survey (Feb. 2 to Feb. 5) (Reporting, etc.) (1) Interim reporting (2) Submission of draft report (3) Final reporting (1/15) (4) Submission of final report (2/27) Source: Study Team

2.3.2 Study Periods (1) Periods of Work in Japan Table 2-1 shows the periods of work in Japan.

2-4 Table 2-1 Periods of Work in Japan Assigned Task Name Company Period Project manager Akihiro Yamazaki Tostems, Inc. 2014/10/1 to 10/4 2014/10/19 to 12/6 2014/12/12 to 2015/2/1 2015/2/6 to 2/27 Transport Plan Kiyohiro Miura Japan Transportation 2014/10/1 to 2015/2/27 Planning Association Civil plan 1 Hiroshi Utsugi Tostems, Inc. 2014/10/31 to 2015/1/7 Civil plan 2 Makoto Hirata Tostems, Inc. 2014/10/1 to 10/4 2014/10/19 to 2015/2/27 Rolling stock plan Hisashi Motoyama Mitsubishi Heavy 2014/10/1 to 10/4 Industries, Ltd. 2014/10/12/ to 2015/2/27 E&M plan 1 Yasukazu Tsubouchi Tostems, Inc. 2014/10/1 to 10/4 2014/10/12/ to 2015/2/27 E&M plan 2 Hisanori Yamaoka Tostems, Inc. 2014/10/1 to 2015/2/27 Operation and maintenance Assad Alamiri Oriental Consultants 2014/10/1 to 10/4 plan Global Co., Ltd. 2014/11/18 to 2015/2/27 Implementation scheme Shouji Tanaka Tostems, Inc. 2014/10/1 to 2015/2/27 plan Economic and financial Naomi Aoki Tostems, Inc. 2014/10/1 to 10/4 analysis 2014/10/12 to 2015/2/1 2015/2/6 to 2/27 Environmental and social Shigeru Kato Tostems, Inc. 2014/10/1 to 10/4 consideration 1 2014/10/12 to 12/6 2014/12/12 to 2015/2/1 2015/2/6 to 2/27 Environmental and social Akitoshi Inoue Tostems, Inc. 2014/10/1 to 2015/2/27 consideration 2 Coordination Kazuhiro Iijima Mitsubishi Heavy 2014/10/1 to 10/4 Industries, Ltd. 2014/10/19 to 12/6 2014/12/12 to 2015/2/1 2015/2/6 to 2/27 Source Study Team

2-5 (2) Periods of Field Survey in Philippines Table 2-2 shows the periods of field surveys in Philippines.

Table 2-2 Periods of Field Surveys in Philippines Assigned Task Name Company Period Project manager Akihiro Yamazaki Tostems, Inc. 2014/10/5 to 10/18 2014/12/7 to 12/11 2015/2/2 to 2/5 Deputy project manager/ Jorge Muller Oriental Consultants 2014/10/1 to 2015/2/5 cost estimation/ Schedule/ Global Co., Ltd. Demand forecast Civil plan 2 Hiroshi Utsugi Tostems, Inc. 2014/10/6 to 10/17 Makoto Hirata Tostems, Inc. 2014/10/5 to 10/18 Civil plan 3 Hisashi Motoyama Mitsubishi Heavy 2014/10/5 to 10/11 Industries, Ltd. E&M plan 1 Yasukazu Tsubouchi Tostems, Inc. 2014/10/5 to 10/11 Operation and maintenance Assad Alamiri Oriental Consultants 2014/10/5 to 11/17 plan Global Co., Ltd. Economic and financial Naomi Aoki Tostems, Inc. 2014/10/5 日 to 10/11 analysis 2015/2/2 to 2/5 Environmental and social Shigeru Kato Tostems, Inc. 2014/10/5 to 10/11 consideration 1 2014/12/7 to 12/11 2015/2/2 to 2/5 Coordination Kazuhiro Iijima Mitsubishi Heavy 2014/10/5 to 10/18 Industries, Ltd. 2014/12/7 to 12/11 2015/2/2 to 2/5 Source Study Team

2.3.3 Work Activity of Field Surveys in Philippines The 1st field survey was conducted for 14 days (November 5th to 18th, 2014), the 2nd field survey was for 5 days (December 7th to 11th, 2014) and 3rd field survey was for x days (February x to x, 2015) respectively. Table 2-3 shows the main work activity.

2-6 Table 2-3 Work Activity of Field Survey in Philippines (1) 1st Field Survey (5th to 18th October 2014) Date Visit to (Organization) Name (Position) Oct. 7 JICA Philippines Office Mr. Takagi (Representative), Ms. Kakuta (Project Formation Advisor) JETRO Manila Office Mr. Ishikawa (Director), Mr. Ooshima (Advisor) Oct. 8 Mandaluyong City Mr. Hon. Benjamin C. Abalos Jr. (City Mayor), Mr. Atty. Jesse Cruz (Councilor District 2), Mr. Hon. Roehl B. Bacar (City Councilor, 2nd District), Mr. Arman Comandao (City Planning and Development Coordinator), Mr. Roberto G. Toventino (Assistant Department Head, City Planning and Development Department), Mr. Gregorio S. Raposon Jr (DPO 3, CPDO), Mr. Gaspar F. Alcazar (DPO 4, CPDO), Mr. Mae E. Hernandez ( Officer 2, CPDO), Mr. Vermelita B. Simbulan (PDO 4, CPDO), Mr. Belen mariscotes (PDA, CPDO), Mr. Rolly P. Damila (Assistant City Engineer, Engineering Department), Mr. Roy D. Galang (Engineer 2, Engineering Department) JBIC Manila Office Mr. Satake (Chief Representative), Mr. Hiramoto (Representative), Ms. Inoue (Operations Analyst) Oct. 9 Embassy of Japan in the Mr. Suzuki (Commercial Officer), Mr. Hirasawa (First Philippines Secretary) DOTC (Department of Mr. Deo Leo N. Manalo (Director, Project Transportation and Development Service), Mr. Jomar S. Ramos (Engineer Communications) 1, Project Development Service), Mr. Joseph Ferrer (Engineer 1, Project Development Service), Mr. Jedd Ugay (Project Development Officer, Planning and Project Development) Oct. 10 UP/DOST (University of the Mr. Rodnel O. Tamayo (Officer-in-Charge Materials & Philippines Manila / Department Process Research Division), and other participants of Science and Technology) (Manila Electric Mr. Oscar S. Reyes (President/CEO), Mr. Enrico R. Company) Benipayo (Vice President/Project manager), Mr. Edmund Cinco (Vice President), Mr. Jesus P. Francisco (President), Mr. Atty. William S. Pamintuan (First Vice President/Deputy General Counsel) Oct. 13 LRTA (Light Rail Transit Mr. Hernando T. Cabrera (Corporate Board Secretary) Authority) Oct. 14 Cainta City Mr. Kit Nieto (Mayor), Mr. Pia Velasco (Vice Mayor), Mr. Divino Pagkatipunan (Municipal Assessor) Manila City Mr. Hon. Francisco “ Isko Moreno” Domagoso (Vice Mayor) Oct. 15 Taytay City Ms. Janet De Leon-Mercado (Mayor), Ms. Aries C. Borja (OIC-MPDC/ Official), Mr. Grate Dei Deleon (Municipal Administrator), Mr. Darius Dolores MRTDC (Metro Rail Transit Mr. Frederick C. Parayno (Vice President), Arnold Development Corporation) Laigo (Avp) Oct. 16 Pasig City Mr. Iyo Christian Caruncho Bernardo (Vice Mayor), Mr. Edgar Cruz (Consultant) Meralco Mr. Melchor Orais (Project Manager), Mr. Bernordo A. Gaycochea (Designer), Mr. Jason B. Elamparo (Team

2-7 leader), Mr. Marciano JR. M. Caldo (Technical Support Engineer), Mr. Enrico R. Benipayo (Vice President/Project Manager) Oct. 17 DPWH (Department of Public Mr. Roy Cruz Works and Highways)

(2) 2nd Field Survey (7th to 11th December 2014) Date Visit to (organization) Name (position) Dec. 8 Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Mr. Morita (President) Philippines, Inc. JICA Philippines Office Mr. Azukizawa (Deputy Director), Mr. Takagi (Representative) Deloitte Tohmatsu Consulting Mr. Furusawa (PM), Mr. Tsujimoto, Mr. Yatabe, Mr. Co.,Ltd. Takasago Dec. 9 Mandaluyong City Mr. Hon. Benjamin C. Abalos Jr. (City Mayor), Mr. Atty. Jesse Cruz (Councilor District 2), and other 6 participants Taytay City Engr. Aries C. Borja. DOTC (Department of Mr. Deo Leo N. Manalo (Director, Project Transportation and Development Service), Ms. Florencia A. Creus, and Communications) other 2 participants Dec. 10 Japan Embassy Mr. Suzuki (Commercial Officer), Mr. Hirasawa (First Secretary)

(3) 3rd Field Survey (2nd to 5th February 2015) Date Visit to (organization) Name (position) Feb. 4 DOTC Final reporting (total 18 participants) -DOTC (Mr. Jedd Carlo F. Ugay, Ms. Beatriz Raine L. Bayudan, Mr. Reynaldo Gatchalian, Mr. Joseph Ferrer, Jomar Ramos) -Mandaluyong City (Ms. Mae Herrander, Mr.Gaspar Aloazan) -Pasig City (Vice mayor Iyo Curuncuo Berwand) -Taytay City (Engr. Aries C. Borja) -Meralco (Mr. Melchor B. Orais, Mr. Jojov.Santiago, III, Mr. Jason B. Elampan, Mr. Edwin. P.Dulay) -OCLP (Mr. Allen H. Sto. Mr. Domingo, Mr. Monch S. Sumulong) -JICA (Mr. Takagi, Mr. Kuwajima) -Castalia (Ms. Kelly Wyett) Feb. 5 DOTC Mr. Rene K.Limcaoco (Undersecretary for Planning & Project Development), Mr. Jomar S. Ramos (Engineer 1), Mr. Joseph Ferrer (Engineer 1), Mr. Jedd ugay (Project development officer) Source Study Team

2-8 Chapter 3 Justification, Objectives and Technical Feasibility of the Project

3.1 Background and Necessity of the Project

3.1.1 Background of the Project The target area; Manila City, Mandaluyong City, Pasig City Cainta City and Taytay City, of the project is located nearby the centre of Metro Manila, focusing on the important location of transportation that connects both east-west and south-north directions. Ortigas CBD, the second commercial and business area with large- scale shopping area such as SM mega mall, is located at the east side of Mandaluyong City, and residential area is located at the west side of the city. Owing to cross the EDSA and MRT Line 3 in this area, the transportation line of the east-west axis is narrow and weak, and chronic traffic congestion becomes a serious social problem. Also, Japanese industrial area and new residential area are under development in Cainta City and Taytay City at the east side of Ortigas CBD. In these circumstances, Mandaluyong City is highly- motivated for development of transportation infrastructure and mitigating of environmental load, and the introduced electrical tricycle and jeepney. On the other hand, road traffic is still growing and traffic congestion is not resolved. As for the fundamental measure for the mitigation of traffic congestion and regional development, Mandaluyong City strongly needs to install a track-guided transit system and a study for the installation of track-guided transit system was conducted by the city.

Additionally, focusing on mitigating the traffic congestion in Metro Manila, the JICA studies of “Roadmap for Transport Infrastructure Development for Metro Manila and Its Surrounding Areas (2014)” and “Preparatory Survey on Metro Manila Central Business Districts Transit System Project in the Republic of the Philippines (under studying in 2014)” are conducted, and the F/S (Feasibility Study) of each route are under the master plan stage. Those JICA studies recommended the necessity for secondary lines in addition to the MRT (Mass Rapid Transit) systems such as North South Commuter Line and metro line.

Figure 3-1 Urban Railway Network

Source: “Roadmap for Transport Infrastructure Development for Metro Manila and Its Surrounding Areas” JICA, 2014

3-1 This study proposes installing a track-guided transit system plan with length of 18km extends from the Sta. Mesa station or V. Mapa station of LRT Line 2 in Manila City through Mandaluyong City, connecting MRT Line 3, going through the east side of Ortigas CBD and reaching up to Taytay City. The above-mentioned route mentioned in the JICA Roadmap Study and it is almost the same to the route in this study.

3.1.2 Necessity of the Project Necessities of the project to the target area are as follows.

(1) Mitigation of Road Traffic Congestion Metro Manila has the highest population density in with the population of over 10 million, and the traffic congestion is the serious social problem. The development of traffic network does not matching the growth of road traffic and concentration of traffic of the metropolitan area, and the chronic traffic congestion affects the quality of life in addition to the significant loss of the social and economic activities. The target area; Manila City, Mandaluyong City, Pasig City Cainta City and Taytay City, of this project passes through Ortigas CBD and the traffic flows to and from the central area and surrounding traffic conditions are a serious social problem. This traffic condition cannot resolve only by the development of road infrastructure, but by the installation of track-guided transit system that can contribute to the modal shift from road traffic (bus, jeepney) to track-guided transport system, and also mitigating of traffic congestion.

(2) Securing the Safety and Convenience for the Residents along the Route At the target area, the exist LRT Line 2 and MRT Line 3 are operating. However, the road traffic is the main mode of transportation between LRT Line 2 and MRT Line 3, and the east-west (between Cainta City, Taytay City and Ortigas CBD) transportation to/from school and office. The growth of road traffic in addition to the deficiency of driving manner, increase the occurrence of traffic accident that happen frequency and rapidly together with the social loss. The installation of track-guided transit system is not only for convenience for the residents along the route, but also contributing the mitigation of traffic accident as the effective solution.

(3) Contributing to Revitalization of Economic Activities from the Support of Railway Network Formation Existing lines of LRT Line 1, LRT Line 2 MRT Line 3 and PNR are operating in Metro Manila as the track- guided transit system In addition to the MRT lines of North South Commuter Line and metro line are mentioned as the next main lines in JICA studies. In existing and those planned lines, LRT Line 2 is the only line that installed in east-west axis direction. The proposed line in this study will contribute to the strength of the east-west transport axis, and formation the railway network with connecting LRT Line 2 and MRT Line 3 will proceed the expansion of people’s movement and revitalization of economic activities.

3-2 3.2 For Sophistication and Rationalization of Energy Usage

Owing to the modal shift from road traffic to track-guided transit system, following benefits for the sophistication and rationalization of energy usage and effects of environmental improvement are expected.

(1) Mitigation of Traffic Congestion and Traffic Accident Same as mentioned in section 3.1.2, associated with the project implementation, mitigation of the traffic congestion and traffic accidents are expected owing to the modal shift from road traffic (bus, jeepney and others) to track-guided transit system.

(2) Improvement of Air Pollution and Reduction of Greenhouse Gases Emissions The installation of the track-guided transport system (AGT system is assumed) is estimated to assist in the reduction of greenhouse gases amount as going to be explained in section 4.2. As a result, the reduction of

greenhouse gases will be 2,704t-CO 2/year in 2023 (scheduled opening year), 9,065 t-CO 2/year in 2030,

10,798 t-CO 2/year in 2040 and 19,363 t-CO 2/year in 2053. According to the growth of modal shift amount from AGT system, the reduction amount of greenhouse gases will be expected.

(3) Improvement of Urban Environment by Introducing Track-guided System with Low Noise and Vibration The proposed track-guided transit system in this study, assuming to be an AGT system, will be constructed as an elevated slab structure mainly using above the road space. AGT runs with rubber and has comparatively a low noise and vibration than the conventional railway and the LRT with steel wheels. This feature is considered as an advantage of the proposed transit system in urban areas especially along the residential areas.

(4) Use of Non-fossil Energy and the Effective Use of Fossil Energy Focusing on the sophistication usage of energy, the use of non-fossil energy ( energy, biomass energy, geothermal energy, nuclear energy, etc.) and the effective use of fossil energy (efficiency of productive facilities) are considered. As for the proposed track-guided system in this study, solar energy as a non-fossil energy can be covered for and passenger information display at the station, and will contribute effectively to the use of energy. Additionally, track-guided transit system is possible to transport more passengers at a time than car and bus. Therefore, and the supply energy is expected to contribute effectively of the use of energy and reduction of carbon dioxide emissions.

3-3 3.3 Various Examinations Required for Determination of the Project

3.3.1 Route Selection In regards to the route selection, as stated in the background of project 3.1.1, here, we take into consideration the route from Taytay city at the east of Manila that passes through one of Manila’s biggest business district, Ortigas through the surroundings of Mandaluyong, a high density residential area that has heavy traffic, and then from Sta. Mesa on the LRT2 line to the surroundings of Gilmore. The basic principles of this proposal’s background and route proposal are as follows.

(1) Route Issue and Proposal

Table 3-1 Route Issue and Proposal Needs The need for the means of transportation The need for a smooth means of from Taytay district to the center of Manila transportation within the surroundings of city to ameliorate traffic congestion Mandaluyong city Current and The route that connects Taytay district to The roads within the district are narrow and future plans the center of Manila city is one highway, there are many public transportation the Ortigas Avenue Extension and is used services like jeepneys and motorized by buses, cars, taxis and jeepneys. There tricycles and the roads are very congested. are current residential developments in the From our current research, it shows that Taytay district and we expect the there are no plans to widen the roads or population to increase. development plans within Mandaluyong city. Issue There are only a few detour roads that can Mandaluyong city and the surroundings of avoid the heavy traffic and a few big roads the district is an empty zone, sandwiched that run parallel to the highway (Ortigas between LRT2 line and MRT3 line. The Avenue Extension) that links Taytay city entire district is a densely populated area and the center of Manila city. Hence, there making it difficult for road expansions. is heavy traffic daily on the highway and it Hence, heavy traffic occurs daily. makes commuting to work or to school a big burden with respect to time. Proposed Introduce an orbital highway that is Offer a service to people to travel within solution different from other transportation systems. the district efficiently and introduce an In addition, create an environment, where orbital public transportation system as a residences and commuters can easily use means of travel to the district and within the orbital public transportation system. the district. Proposed route Propose to introduce an orbital public transportation system that links Taytay district in the direction of the LRT2 line from the east to the west. Source: Study team

(2) Basic principles behind the settings of the proposed route Based on the proposed route as shown above in passage (1), the basic principles behind the settings of the route is as shown as below.

3-4 1) The role of the proposed system The proposed system is a route that links Taytay city in the east of Manila city with the LRT2 line. It will strengthen the public transit centre in the east west direction of Manila city, serve as a new public transportation within the district around Mandaluyong city with the goal to solve traffic congestion and to improve the public transportation services. Hence, we choose the proposed route that can be introduced as a public transportation system that provides better speed efficiency and punctuality and has transportation power that meets public demands.

2) Total image of the route In this project, from the perspective of maintaining it as a public transportation, this project brings various benefits like improvements in the convenience in commuting for the target area, a solution to the traffic congestion, promotion of economic development of the area, etc. However, in order to go ahead with this project smoothly, we require support from the private sector and international financial institutions and hence we need to consider the benefits for the related countries and private sectors. For that, the route will not only be a railway route that provides convenience to a wide network it will be a route that has considered extensions and placements of new stations in the future, to facilitate the participation of railway developers.

3) Future extensions Due to the growth in population in Manila’s , we see the expansion of residential areas to suburban areas and this time, residential developments expanding to the southeast and east direction from Taytay city. At the current stage, we are looking into line expansions and placement of new stations based on the progress of future development plans from Taytay city to the southeast direction.

This route plan proposes that with the on-going urbanization that causes the heavy traffic from the centre of Manila to Taytay city, the area requires immediate attention and that future expansions be carried out in the envisioned areas and treated as maintenance areas later.

4) Area of introducing the orbital system The area where the proposed system will be introduced utilizes airspace and is separated from car traffic by elevation. Plus, considering the effects to the social environment, our plans minimize the occurrence of involuntary relocation of residences.

(3) The settings of the proposed routes Based on the principles above, the following 3 proposed routes are stated in Figure 3-2. In the geographic area of these 3 routes, the east area from the Ortigas CBD area is an identical route that passes through and above Ortigas Avenue Extension. Here the area from Taytay city to the southeast direction of Angono city will be the area for the future proposed lines, where final maintenance will be carried out through future development plans that have progressed.

3-5 Figure 3-2 Proposed Routes 3-6

Source: Study team It is considerate that Option-2 highly regarded is most suitable relatively by this stage as a result of the field survey and the consideration by the table of next page (Table 3-2) about Option-1 or 2 or 3 which are 3 route plans.

The following point is important about the consideration. *Introduction space for the Option-1 is very small, and there are many curves and not straight. It's scarce in the reality because it can be think the land acquisition for construction is most difficult. *Because Option-3 is away from the center of the Mandaruyong city, achievement of congestion easing at the center of the city which is the purpose of building this line is difficult.

Option-2 route was judged to be predominant by the following point compared with other route. *Share of land acquisition is little relatively. *To pass near the center of the city, it can expect to contribute to congestion easing at the center of the city.

Therefore, in this study is to plan for the route of Option-2.

The consideration result of every route option is shown in the next page (Table 3-2).

3-7 Table 3-2 Route Consideration Option-1 Option-2 Option-3 Location map (e1) (b) (c) (b) (e1) (a) (e2) (c) (c) (b) (c) (a) (a) (e2)

(b) (d) (d) (c)

Route The east of the current PNR Sta. Mesa station – Mandaluyong city – Boni The west of V. Mapa station (LRT 2) – road – Shaw Boulevard Gilmore station (LRT 2) – Ortigas Avenue – Ortigas CBD district – Cainta city – Avenue – Ortigas CBD – Cainta city – Taytay city station (MRT 3) – Ortigas CBD district – Cainta city – Taytay city Taytay city Distance Approx. 19.6km Approx. 18.4km Approx. 14.8km Item Explanation Evaluation Explanation Evaluation Explanation Evaluation Introduction To use the airspace above the . (Refer to (a) on the good To use the airspace above Shaw Boulevard road. (Refer to (a) on the good To use the airspace above Ortigas Avenue. Linearly, the road is good in the map) map) comparatively wider. (Refer to (a) on the map) central part part To use the airspace above Ortigas Avenue Extension from Ortigas excellent To use the airspace above Ortigas Avenue Extension from Ortigas excellent To use the airspace above Ortigas Avenue Extension from Ortigas excellent district in the direction of Cainta and Taytay city. The width of the district in the direction of Cainta and Taytay city. The width of the district in the direction of Cainta and Taytay city. The width of the road is wide. (Refer to (c) on the map) road is wide. (Refer to (c) on the map) road is wide. (Refer to (b) on the map) Undergroun To use about 2.5 km of the underground below. (Refer to (b) on the fair To use about 2.2 km of the underground below. (Refer to (b) on the fair An all elevated construction without any underground parts is good d part map) map) possible. (Refer to (a)(b) on the map) Constructabi Road expansion facilities and closures are necessary during poor Road expansion facilities and lane closures are necessary during fair Compared to Option-1 and Option-2, fewer road expansion good lity construction as there are many narrow bends in the introduction construction in (b) even though the introduction area is wider than facilities and lane closures are needed as the width of Ortigas area. (Refer to (a)(b) on the map) in Option-1. (Refer to (b) on the map) Avenue and Ortigas Avenue Extension is wide. (Refer to (a)(b) on the map) Night work There will be a lot of work done at night when traffic is low, and fair There will be a lot of work done at night when traffic is low, and fair It is predicted that compared to Option-1 and Option-2, there will good and adjacent will be a lot of adjacent construction, making construction will be a lot of adjacent construction, making construction be less night work and adjacent construction. (Refer to (a)(b) on construction challenging. (Refer to (a)(b) on the map) challenging. (Refer to (a)(b) on the map) the map) The intersection with EDSA is a tunnel in Boni Avenue. It is fair It is necessary to consider the construction thoroughly as the fair The intersection of EDSA and Ortigas Avenue is the intersection of fair with EDSA necessary to consider thoroughly the construction of rods and intersection with EDSA is the intersection of the MRT3 line and the MRT3 line and the flyover. After studying the conditions of support beams that do not affect the tunnel. (Refer to (d) on the Shaw Boulevard and there are nearby station and existing buildings, it is necessary to consider thoroughly the map) commercial buildings. (Refer to (d) on the map) framework and construction methods. (Refer to (c) on the map) Intersection In the Sta. Mesa district, there are plans for an elevated (e1) fair In the Sta. Mesa district, there are plans for an elevated Skyway fair The Ortigas intersection on EDSA passes through the 2 nd level of poor with and an elevated public road (e2). As it is difficult to go over the (e1) and an elevated public road (e2). As it is difficult to go over the the MRT3 line and the 3 level of the road’s flyover, making it elevated Skyway and road through elevation, it is necessary for an Skyway and road through elevation, it is necessary for an impossible to create a mid level pass through or to get around it roads underground system from the southeast of San Juan River to Sta. underground system from the southeast of San Juan River to Sta. underground. Hence it would be necessary to go over this Mesa district. (Refer to (b) on the map) Mesa district. (Refer to (b) on the map) intersection with a very tall elevated bridge. (Refer to (c) on the map) Undergroun Work for an underground installation will increase. fair Work for an underground installation will increase. fair Work for an underground installation will not increase but difficult fair d work work will increase for the very tall elevated bridge. Relocation Relocation work of buried items, lamps, overhead electrical fair Relocation work of buried items, street lamps, overhead electrical fair Relocation work will incur because there are many overhead fair of utility lines and others will incur. lines and others will incur. electrical lines in the Gilmore district and street lamps and trees on the central divider of the Ortigas Avenue. Land It is predicted that among all 3 options, land acquisition will be the poor Compared to Option-1, it is predicted that land acquisition will be fair It is predicted that among all 3 options, land acquisition will be the good acquisition most as the roads are narrow. (Refer to (a)(b) on the map) fewer. (Refer to (a)(b) on the map) least. (Refer to (a) on the map) However, the land acquisition in the eastern than Ortigas CBD, it is However, the land acquisition in the eastern than Ortigas CBD, it is However, the land acquisition in the eastern than Ortigas CBD, it is necessary to consider in future study. (Refer to (c) on the map) necessary to consider in future study. (Refer to (c) on the map) necessary to consider in future study. (Refer to (b) on the map) Effect on It will pass through the centre of Mandaluyong city. As the number excellent It will pass through the surroundings of the centre of Mandaluyong excellent As it is away from the center of Mandaluyong city, we cannot poor traffic of railway passengers increases; the number of cars will decrease. city As the number of railway passengers increases; the number of expect this route to solve traffic congestion in the city centre and a congestion This route will solve traffic congestion in the city centre and we can cars will decrease. This route solve traffic congestion in the city smooth means of transportation within the city. expect a smooth means of transportation within the city. centre and we can expect a smooth means of transportation within the city. Total Introduction space for the Option-1 is very small, and there are many fair Share of land acquisition is little relatively. excellent Because Option-3 is away from the center of the Mandaruyong city, good evaluation curves and not straight. It's scarce in the reality because it can be think To pass near the center of the city, it can expect to contribute to achievement of congestion easing at the center of the city which is the land acquisition for construction is most difficult. congestion easing at the center of the city. the purpose of building this line is difficult. Source: Study Team 3-8 (4) Proposal of Option-1’s route expansion We have envisioned 2 possible cases for future expansions of Option-1 of the proposed route of this system. In regards to the routes, confirmation on the actual conditions and consideration of the outlines has been carried out.

Table 3-3 Route Consideration (Future Expansions of Option-1) Location map

Route Ext.1 Ext.2 Course street – Coronado Street – New Panaderos street – street - – Triangle Park Paco Distance About 5.7km About 5.0km Road width San Francisco road is about 20m but New Panaderos street is from about 10-12m Coronado street is only about 10m and it is and midway there are crank angles. parallel to the river. Makati Avenue is about 15m and on both sides of the road, there are high-rise buildings. The surrounding of Triangle Park is about 30m and fairly wide. Land The area from Coronado street to the north Midway of New Panaderos street, there is a acquisition of Makati Avenue intersects the possibility that crank parts might appear. and based on this intersection, land (Refer to (b) on the map) acquisition is necessary. (Refer to (a) on the map) Relocation of Based on the route that passes through the Relocation has to be considered for the residences Pasig River, relocation has to be considered. areas before and after New Panaderos street (Refer to (a) on the map) intersects with the Pasig River. (Refer to (c) on the map) Source: Study Team

The consideration over the details on the future expansion of route Option-1 has confirmed that the route will be Option-1 and when the necessity occurs, future expansions will be carried out.

3-9 (5) Proposed route along the Pasig River Based on the discussions with Mandaluyong city, a study on the surroundings of Pasig River was carried out due to a request to consider a route along the Pasig River to avoid the route of Option-1.

Based on the study results, in the event of a route that doesn’t pass through Boni Avenue in Mandaluyong city, if the riverside route shortens, the length of the route lengthens and this decreases speed efficiency and the effect of avoiding the congestion at Boni Avenue. Hence, in other to avoid the congestion at Boni Avenue, we would need to look for a longer riverside route for a more effective result. Therefore, we have predicted the following 3 cases as routes to exit the Pasig River. In regards to each route, the confirmation of current conditions and consideration to the outline has been carried out.

Table 3-4 Route Consideration (along the Pasig River) Location map

Route (a)～(d) (b) ～(d) (c) ～(d) Course Sheridan Street – Simeon Cruz Pinatubo Street – Simeon Cruz Barangka Drive – E. Pantaleon Street – Coronado Street – J.P. Street – Coronado Street – J.P. Street – Coronado Street – J.P. Rizal Street – Lubiran Street Rizal Street – Lubiran Street Rizal Street – Lubiran Street Distance About 5.7km About 5.0km About 4.5km Road width The road in the surroundings of The road in the surroundings of The road in the surroundings of (a) is less than 10m and in the (c) is less than 10m and in the (c) road is less than 10m and in direction of the river, there is a direction of the river, there is a the direction of the river, it steep . It is necessary to steep slope. It is necessary to becomes narrower. It is widen the road. widen the road that includes necessary to widen the road. the intersection of Boni Avenue and Pinatubo Street. Land To widen the road, land To widen the road, land To widen the road, land acquisition acquisition is necessary. acquisition is necessary. acquisition is necessary. Relocation On both sides of the road, there On both sides of the road, there Both sides of the road are of are residential buildings, small are residential buildings and congested with residential residences and school. It is small factories. It is necessary buildings. It is necessary to necessary to consider to consider relocation. consider relocation. relocation. Others From the surroundings of (a) to The intersection of Boni Along the (c) road, there are 2 the west direction along the Avenue and Pinatubo street is schools. Hence, we can expect

3-10 river that intersects with the the exit of a tunnel that an improvement in the at (e). The intersects with Boni Avenue convenience for the students. surrounding area and and EDSA. It is necessary to Guadalupe Bridge does not consider building support provide the space for the track beams for an elevated bridge. to across, hence a really tall-elevated bridge that goes over the bridge’s is necessary. In addition, there are a lot of big billboards and overhead electrical lines. Hence relocations are necessary. Riverside Part of the riverbank at the Mandaluyong city side has a road and there are residential buildings and conditions small factories along the riverbank. The road can be used but to support the current number of cars, a road expansion is required. For that, we would either have to relocate the residential buildings or build support beams in the river. For parts of the riverbank that do not have roads, site acquisitions would be necessary for construction plans. There are no roads along the riverbank at the Manila city side and there are or factories along it. In the event that a route is set along the riverbank, a new site acquisition or building support beams in the river would be required. Source: Study Team

Based on the above results, in the event a route is set at the riverbank, the residences on land will be able to use the route but the ability to attract more commuters from both sides will drop.

Hence, for any routes that will use the riverbanks of Pasig River, - Road expansions and relocations of residents will occur - The distance will lengthen and this will result in a drop in speed efficiency and the ability to attract more commuters

Hence, comparing with Option-1, as a route, it is not highly evaluated.

The current state of the proposed routes is shown in Photo 3-1.

3-11 Photo 3-1 Current Situation of the Proposed Routes

Option-1 Boni Avenue Option-1 EDSA-BONI Tunnel

Option-2 Shaw Boulevard Option-2 EDSA-Shaw Blvd Crossing

Option-3 Ortigas Avenue Option-3 EDSA-Ortigas Flyover

Ortigas avenue in Cainta City Ortigas Avenue Extension in Taytay

3-12 Guadalupe Bridge Pasig River (Mandaluyong City Side) Source: Study Team

3-13 3.3.2 Demand Forecast (1) Methodology In this study, the OD data which was prepared by MMUTIS (Metro Manila urban transportation integration study, JICA) was used as base data for the demand forecast of AGT. In addition the OD data which was prepared by HSH study (The study of master plan on high standard highway network development in the republic of the Philippines) also was used for trips in outside area of MMUTIS study area. The current OD table was prepared by using these data. However it was calibrated by using the results of the traffic count data which was collected by MUCEP (The project for capacity development on transportation planning and database management, JICA). The future OD table was prepared based on the future population which was estimated by latest population data. The demand of AGT was forecasted by using the highway type assignment model with future network including some new railway and highway projects. As the results of demand forecast, the daily/ hourly and alighting each station, the daily line volume and PPHPD are shown in the end of this section. The target years are from 2023 to 2053. The flowchart of demand forecast was shown in figure below.

Figure 3-3 Flowchart

Source: Study Team

3-14 (2) OD Table 1) Base Data The OD table for this study was prepared based on the OD data which was prepared by MMUTIS. The MMUTIS OD data was collected from the person trip survey in 1996. The person trip survey collected following information from 57,900 households or 274,000 persons in Metro Manila and part of surrounding provinces. a Household information: the socio-economic characteristics of household’s members, household structure, car-ownership, income level, location of residence and number of years in said residence, etc. b Household member information: This covers the socio-economic characteristics of household’s members, 4 years old and above. These included age, sex, occupation, work and/or school address, income and so on. c Trip information: origin and destination of trip, trip purpose, travel mode, transfer, departure and arrival time, etc. d Information on vehicle users: vehicle use patterns. e Information on the specially abled and elderly people f Leisure information: characteristics of leisure trips

The future demand has been projected based on the four-step model by using trip information above. The model was constructed by (1) trip generation/ attraction, (2) modal sprit between public and private mode, (3) trip distribution and (4) traffic assignment as shown in Figure 3-4. Taking into account that mobility of car- owning household is considerably higher than that of non-car-owning household, the forecast model was constructed separately. There is an increasing probability of diversion from private mode to public mode when quality rail mass transit system is developed in the future. With this, an additional step to analyse the modal shift from private to public between step (3) and (4) above was included, and a diversion model was developed based on the results of the “willingness to pay” survey.

In the results, future transport demand in the study area is as much as 43.7 million trips (motorized) in 2015 which is 1.84 times that of 1996. The modal share between public and private was 78:22 in 1996 to 66:34 in 2015.

Table 3-5 Future Demand by Purpose 1996 2015 Purpose 2015/1996 000 % 000 % To Walk 4,100 17.3 7,557 17.3 1.84 To School 3,449 14.6 6,348 14.5 1.84 Business 1,828 7.7 3,717 8.5 2.03 Motorized Private 3,483 14.7 6,910 15.8 1.98 To 10,824 45.7 19,157 43.8 1.77 Total 23,684 100.0 43,689 100.0 1.84 Walk Total 6,507 21.6 10,776 19.8 1.66 Total 30,191 - 54,465 - 1.80 Source: MMUTIS

3-15 Table 3-6 Future Demand by Mode 1996 2015 Mode1) 2015/1996 000 % 000 % Public 18,452 77.9 28,930 66.2 1.57 Private 5,233 22.1 14,759 33.8 2.82 Total 23,684 100.0 43,689 100.0 1.84 1) Excluding walk trips Source: MMUTIS

Figure 3-4 Demand Forecast Model

Source: MMUTIS

2) Current OD Table The MMUTIS OD table covered Metro Manila and part of surrounding provinces only. Therefore the OD table which was prepared by HSH study was converted to the MMUTIS OD table. The base year of current OD table is 2012 because the traffic count data by MUCEP is available. The key steps for preparing the current OD table are shown in below. a Convert MMUTIS and HSH study area OD tables to the zone system of AGT project as detailed in the following section. b Create 2012 OD tables based on latest population statistics data. c Combine 2012 MMUTIS and HSH OD tables as shown in Table 3-7. d Validate the 2012 OD table by assigning to the 2012 network and comparing the assigned traffic volume against the MUCEP traffic count data collected in 2012.

3-16 Table 3-7 Formation of Initial 2012 OD Tables – Sources of OD Trips Area Greater MM Area Remaining Area Greater MM Area O/D Source MMUTIS O/D table HSH study O/D table Remaining Area HSH study O/D table HSH study O/D table Source: Study Team

The traffic model was developed for the following four types of OD table. a Car person trips OD (including taxi trips) b Jeepney passenger trips OD (including FX and HOV) c Bus passenger trips OD (including all buses) d All goods vehicles (including vans, pick-up vehicles and ) The traffic model validation process involved comparison of modelled traffic volume against the following MUCEP traffic count data in 2012. a Outer cordon: outer boundary of Mega Manila Area (outer boundary of Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal provinces) b Inner cordon: Metro Manila boundary c Three screen lines within Metro Manila: Pasig river, San Juan river and Philippine national railway

The table below shows the modelled traffic count and the observed counts. The total screen lines and cordon volumes are within 10% of the counts.

Table 3-8 The Modelled Traffic Count and the Observed Counts

Source: Study Team

3-17 Validation of person trips on railways was carried by comparing the modelled patronage with the total daily boarding on each line and the results are summarized in Table 3-9. It can be seen that the total modelled rail patronage is within 10% of the observed volume.

Table 3-9 Comparison of Observed and Modeled Patronage on Metro Manila Railways Daily Railway Passenger Railway Line Count Model M/C Line 1 518,600 605,100 1.17 Line 2 212,000 206,500 0.97 Line 3 570,000 577,900 1.01 PNR 46,700 61,200 1.31 Total 1,347,300 1,450,700 1.08 Source: Study Team

3) Future OD Table The future travel demand was estimated by using the fratar growth factoring technique using the traffic zone level growth in population. This process yielded OD table by private (car) and public modes (Jeepney and Bus) and truck trips. The forecasted trips are shown in table below.

Table 3-10 Travel Demand by Mode (Inter Zonal Trips ‘000) Description 2012 2023 2030 2040 2053 Private Person Trips 5,930 7,240 7,964 8,842 9,983 Person Trips by Jeepney 7,183 8,505 9,277 10,202 11,405 Person Trips by Bus 5,626 6,974 7,771 8,752 10,028 Total Person Trips 18,739 22,719 25,012 27,796 31,416 Truck Trips (vehicles) 440 525 577 644 731 Source: Study Team

(3) Demand Forecast Model 1) Zone System The new zone system was developed for this study. It is compatible with MMUTIS and HSH. The zone system was shown in table and figures below.

Table 3-11 Zone System Number of Traffic Zones in the Study Area Area Description AGT study MMUTIS HSH Metro Manila (NCR 17 Cities) 94 94 94 Bulacan province 26 23 26 Laguna province 14 11 19 Rizal province 15 19 17 Cavite province 23 30 25 Rest of Region III 37 1 74 Rest of Region IV-A 18 1 28 Special Zones (Ports & Airports) 8 2 1 Other Areas in Luzon (Externals) 10 - 36 Total Zones 245 181 320 Source: Study Team

3-18 Figure 3-5 Zone System (Metro Manila)

Source: Study Team

3-19 Figure 3-6 Zone System (Outer Provinces)

Source: Study Team

3-20 2) Network The model network was developed from MMUTIS and HIS study area networks on the same basis as the OD table described above. It includes existing railways, highway and primary roads. In addition the new railway and highway projects in Table 3-12 and Table 3-13 were considered as the future network.

Table 3-12 New Railway Projects Year Project Section Line 7 Trinoma - San jose del Monte 2020 LRT1 Extension Baclaran - Niog LRT2 East Extension Santolan -Masinag LRT2 West Extension Recto-Tutuban 2025 NSCR Phase I (Malolos to Tutuban) Malolos-Tutuban 2030 NSCR (full alignment) Malolos-Calamba 2035 MRT EDSA San Jose Del Monte-Dasmarinas Source: Study Team

Table 3-13 New Highway Projects Year Project 2020 Segment 9 & 10 NLEX-SLEX connector Skyway stage 3 NAIA expressway Dike road Calamba - Las Binas CALA expressway Plaridel Bypass Source: Study Team

3) Assignment Model and Parameters The traffic model combined road/ rail assignment model was used to assign OD table. The assignment process used is based on Equilibrium method, where the traffic from each OD pair is assigned interactively to the network until no cheaper/ quicker route could be found. The shortest was build based on the generalized cost such as operating cost of vehicle, public transport and wait & walk times. Therefore the rail passengers will be transfer from private mode, bus and Jeepney and be decided based on the rail network and the road traffic situation. It means the number of rail passengers will be dynamically changed each assignment. The equilibrium method re-calculates the new travel time based on the road capacity and assigned traffic volume after each assignment interaction. The road speed is calculated by using BPR function below depend on the road congestion. The parameters of roads and railways are shown in Table 3-14 to Table 3-16.

 BPR function t   1    

Where, t : Travel Time

 : Free Flow Time X : Traffic Volume

3-21 C : Road Capacity α, β : Parameters α3.0, β  4.0

Figure 3-7 Speed Curve

Source: Study Team

Table 3-14 Road Capacities and Maximum Speed Capacity 1- Carriageway Maximum Area Road Category way Type Speed pcu/hr/lane Local road Single 220 30 Inside EDSA Secondary Single 440 40 Primary Single 660 45 Secondary Single 770 50 Outside EDSA Inside Primary Single 825 60 MM Secondary Divided 1,400 70 (including EDSA) Primary Divided 1,650 80 Local road Single 800 30 Outside MM Secondary Single 1,100 55 Primary Single 1,540 60 Access / Egress Single 1,500 80 Urban / Inter City Expressway Single 1,700 80 Expressway Divided 2,000 100 Source: Study Team

3-22 Table 3-15 Assignment Model Parameters () Parameter Description Car Jeepney Bus Truck Average 24-hour Occupancy (Person) 1.70 10.02 35.28 n/a PCU Factor 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.00 Toll Rate Within MM (PhP/km)* 10.30 10.30 20.60 30.90 Toll Rate Outside MM (PhP/km)* 3.40 3.40 6.80 10.20 Perceived Toll Factor 1.00 0 0 0.50 Public Transport Fare (PhP/km)* n/a 2.00 1.72 n/a *Fares and Tolls are increased based on growth rate of GRDP. Source: Study Team

Table 3-16 Assignment Model Parameters (Railway) Other MRT, Parameter Description AGT LRT Average Headway (mins) 8.0 8.0 Average Speed (km/h) 30.0 35.0 Boarding Fare (PhP/boarding) (in 2012)* 20.0 10.0 Additional Fare (Boarding + PhP/km) (in 2012) * 1.5 0.55 Access Walk Speed (km/h) 4.0 4.0 * Fares and Tolls are increased based on growth rate of GRDP. Source: Study Team

(4) Results of Demand Forecast 1) Daily Boarding Passengers and Average Trip Length of AGT Table 3-17 and Figure 3-8 show the daily boarding passengers of AGT from 2023 to 2053. The daily boarding passengers in 2023 is 230,600 passengers. It will increase to 350,300 passengers in 2030, 464,800 passengers in 2040 and 485,700 passengers in 2053.

The daily passengers by station in 2023, 2030, 2040 and 2053 are shown in Figure 3-9. In 2023, SW8 (V. Mapa) station which is transfer station to LRT2 has the highest number of 2-way passengers boarding and alighting per day with 56,400 passengers boarding and 57,200 passengers alighting. SE5 (Taytay) station which is terminal station on east side and SW4 (Shaw Blvd) station which is transfer station to MRT3 follow 31,200 passengers boarding, 33,400 passengers alighting and 25,600 passengers boarding, 23,600 passengers alighting respectively. The highest line loads occurred between SW3 and SW4 (Shaw Blvd) stations with 93,500 passengers for eastbound and 100,400 passengers for westbound. The passenger behaviour will not change in 2053, the daily passengers of SW8 (V. Mapa) station will become 100,400 passengers boarding and 101,300 passengers alighting. The maximum line load in 2053 will increase to 170,300 passengers for eastbound and 169,800 passengers for westbound.

Table 3-17 also shows the average trip length. It is approximately 10km each year.

3-23 Table 3-17 Daily Passengers and Average Trip Length Daily Boarding Ave. Trip Length Daily Boarding Ave. Trip Length Year Year (Pax/day) (km) (Pax/day) (km) 2023 230,600 10.1 2039 456,700 9.8 2024 247,800 10.1 2040 464,800 9.8 2025 272,800 9.9 2041 466,400 9.8 2026 285,900 9.9 2042 468,000 9.8 2027 299,000 9.9 2043 469,600 9.8 2028 312,100 9.9 2044 471,200 9.8 2029 325,200 9.9 2045 472,800 9.8 2030 350,300 10.3 2046 474,400 9.8 2031 363,900 10.2 2047 476,000 9.8 2032 377,500 10.2 2048 477,600 9.8 2033 391,100 10.1 2049 479,200 9.8 2034 404,700 10.0 2050 480,800 9.8 2035 424,700 9.9 2051 482,400 9.8 2036 432,700 9.9 2052 484,000 9.8 2037 440,700 9.8 2053 485,700 9.8 2038 448,700 9.8 Source: Study Team

Figure 3-8 Daily Passengers

Source: Study Team

3-24 Figure 3-9 Daily Passengers by Station

2023 2030

2040 2050 Source: Study Team

2) PPHPD PPHPD was forecasted by using the peak rate, 10%, which was observed from the traffic count survey on Ortigas Ave. by MUCEP.

Table 3-18 and Figure 3-10 show forecasted PPHPD. PPHPD in 2023 is 9,350 for eastbound and 9,250 for westbound. It will increase year by year such as 13,960 for eastbound and 14,270 for westbound in 2030, 16,580 for eastbound and 16,450 for westbound in 2040, 17,030 for eastbound and 16,980 for westbound.

3-25 Table 3-18 PPHPD PPHPD East PPHPD West PPHPD East PPHPD West Year Year Bound Bound Bound Bound 2023 9,350 9,250 2039 16,390 16,150 2024 9,950 9,710 2040 16,580 16,450 2025 10,680 10,330 2041 16,610 16,490 2026 11,320 10,990 2042 16,650 16,530 2027 11,950 11,650 2043 16,680 16,570 2028 12,590 12,310 2044 16,720 16,610 2029 13,220 12,970 2045 16,750 16,650 2030 13,960 14,270 2046 16,790 16,690 2031 14,270 14,580 2047 16,820 16,740 2032 14,580 14,890 2048 16,860 16,780 2033 14,890 15,200 2049 16,890 16,820 2034 15,200 15,510 2050 16,930 16,860 2035 15,650 15,410 2051 16,960 16,900 2036 15,840 15,600 2052 17,000 16,940 2037 16,020 15,780 2053 17,030 16,980 2038 16,210 15,970 Source: Study Team

Figure 3-10 PPHPD

Source: Study Team

3-26 3) Hourly Boarding and Alighting Passengers The hourly boarding and alighting passengers each station in 2023 and 2040 are shown in Table 3-19 and Table 3-20. They were calculated from the daily boarding passengers by using hourly rate which was observed from the traffic count survey of MUCEP. And Figure 3-11 and Figure 3-12 show the number of boarding by time in 2023 and 2040. The number of boarding, alighting and line volume during peak hour in 2023 and 2040 were shown in Table 3-21 to Table 3-24.

Table 3-19 Hourly Boarding and Alighting Passengers in 2023 Unit: passengers/hour

SW4 SW8 SE5 SW7 SW6 SW5 (Shaw SW3 SW2 S1 SE2 SE3 SE4 (V.Mapa) (Taytay) Blvd) 6:00-7:00 8,106 2,938 1,690 851 3,436 2,949 2,035 278 1,746 2,902 1,208 4,533 7:00-8:00 8,106 2,938 1,690 851 3,436 2,949 2,035 278 1,746 2,902 1,208 4,533 8:00-9:00 6,276 2,275 1,309 660 2,663 2,285 1,572 218 1,351 2,248 936 3,512 9:00-10:00 6,276 2,275 1,309 660 2,663 2,285 1,572 218 1,351 2,248 936 3,512 10:00-11:00 5,214 1,891 1,089 553 2,241 1,913 1,273 206 1,120 1,885 782 2,948 11:00-12:00 5,214 1,891 1,089 553 2,241 1,913 1,273 206 1,120 1,885 782 2,948 12:00-13:00 5,008 1,816 1,046 532 2,159 1,840 1,216 203 1,076 1,814 752 2,837 13:00-14:00 5,008 1,816 1,046 532 2,159 1,840 1,216 203 1,076 1,814 752 2,837 14:00-15:00 5,623 2,040 1,176 600 2,439 2,074 1,348 241 1,207 2,046 846 3,202 15:00-16:00 5,623 2,040 1,176 600 2,439 2,074 1,348 241 1,207 2,046 846 3,202 16:00-17:00 7,068 2,564 1,479 755 3,074 2,611 1,684 311 1,516 2,577 1,065 4,032 17:00-18:00 7,068 2,564 1,479 755 3,074 2,611 1,684 311 1,516 2,577 1,065 4,032 18:00-19:00 8,176 2,968 1,714 883 3,614 3,050 1,883 409 1,749 3,015 1,240 4,724 19:00-20:00 8,176 2,968 1,714 883 3,614 3,050 1,883 409 1,749 3,015 1,240 4,724 20:00-21:00 6,644 2,411 1,391 714 2,914 2,467 1,555 313 1,423 2,437 1,004 3,816 21:00-22:00 6,644 2,411 1,391 714 2,914 2,467 1,555 313 1,423 2,437 1,004 3,816 22:00-23:00 4,692 1,703 983 505 2,065 1,746 1,090 227 1,004 1,725 710 2,702 23:00-24:00 4,692 1,703 983 505 2,065 1,746 1,090 227 1,004 1,725 710 2,702

Source: Study Team

Table 3-20 Hourly Boarding and Alighting Passengers in 2040 Unit passengers/hour

SW4 SW8 SE5 SW7 SW6 SW5 (Shaw SW3 SW2 S1 SE2 SE3 SE4 (V.Mapa) (Taytay) Blvd) 6:00-7:00 11,889 4,199 4,299 1,486 10,546 3,566 4,689 2,226 3,006 6,779 5,017 8,652 7:00-8:00 11,889 4,199 4,299 1,486 10,546 3,566 4,689 2,226 3,006 6,779 5,017 8,652 8:00-9:00 9,204 3,250 3,326 1,151 8,162 2,758 3,630 1,728 2,327 5,250 3,886 6,699 9:00-10:00 9,204 3,250 3,326 1,151 8,162 2,758 3,630 1,728 2,327 5,250 3,886 6,699 10:00-11:00 7,644 2,691 2,740 967 6,744 2,255 3,009 1,489 1,928 4,385 3,249 5,570 11:00-12:00 7,644 2,691 2,740 967 6,744 2,255 3,009 1,489 1,928 4,385 3,249 5,570 12:00-13:00 7,340 2,582 2,626 930 6,469 2,158 2,888 1,441 1,850 4,216 3,125 5,350 13:00-14:00 7,340 2,582 2,626 930 6,469 2,158 2,888 1,441 1,850 4,216 3,125 5,350 14:00-15:00 8,240 2,894 2,936 1,050 7,245 2,404 3,240 1,646 2,075 4,747 3,520 6,010 15:00-16:00 8,240 2,894 2,936 1,050 7,245 2,404 3,240 1,646 2,075 4,747 3,520 6,010 16:00-17:00 10,356 3,635 3,684 1,323 9,095 3,011 4,070 2,084 2,606 5,972 4,430 7,555 17:00-18:00 10,356 3,635 3,684 1,323 9,095 3,011 4,070 2,084 2,606 5,972 4,430 7,555 18:00-19:00 11,973 4,187 4,214 1,550 10,448 3,411 4,695 2,515 3,005 6,955 5,167 8,748 19:00-20:00 11,973 4,187 4,214 1,550 10,448 3,411 4,695 2,515 3,005 6,955 5,167 8,748 20:00-21:00 9,731 3,409 3,442 1,252 8,518 2,799 3,820 2,004 2,445 5,634 4,182 7,105 21:00-22:00 9,731 3,409 3,442 1,252 8,518 2,799 3,820 2,004 2,445 5,634 4,182 7,105 22:00-23:00 6,871 2,405 2,425 886 6,006 1,968 2,696 1,427 1,726 3,984 2,958 5,019 23:00-24:00 6,871 2,405 2,425 886 6,006 1,968 2,696 1,427 1,726 3,984 2,958 5,019

Source: Study Team

3-27 Figure 3-11 Number of Boarding by Time in 2023

Source: Study Team

Figure 3-12 Number of Boarding by Time in 2040

Source: Study Team

3-28 Table 3-21 AM Peak Hour Board/ Alight/ Line Volume in 2023 Eastbound Westbound Station Board Alight Line Vol. Board Alight Line Vol. SW8 (V.Mapa) 2,370 - 2,370 - 5,710 - SW7 860 - 3,230 - 2,070 5,710 SW6 500 - 3,730 - 1,190 7,780 SW5 130 130 3,730 300 290 8,970 SW4 (Shaw Blvd) 640 440 3,930 1,030 1,320 8,960 SW3 - 900 3,030 1,930 110 9,250 SW2 270 230 3,070 850 670 7,430 S1 120 30 3,160 90 40 7,250 SE2 - 500 2,660 1,240 - 7,200 SE3 - 890 1,770 2,000 - 5,960 SE4 - 360 1,410 840 - 3,960 SE5 (Taytay) - 1,410 - 3,120 - 3,120 Total/Max 4,890 4,880 3,930 11,400 11,410 9,250 Source: Study Team

Table 3-22 PM Peak Hour Board/ Alight/ Line Volume in 2023 Eastbound Westbound Station Board Alight Line Vol. Board Alight Line Vol. SW8 (V.Mapa) 5,640 - 5,640 - 2,510 - SW7 2,050 - 7,690 - 910 2,510 SW6 1,180 - 8,870 - 520 3,420 SW5 310 310 8,870 130 130 3,940 SW4 (Shaw Blvd) 1,530 1,040 9,350 450 580 3,940 SW3 - 2,140 7,220 850 50 4,070 SW2 650 560 7,310 380 290 3,270 S1 290 60 7,540 40 20 3,180 SE2 - 1,200 6,340 540 - 3,160 SE3 - 2,130 4,210 880 - 2,620 SE4 - 870 3,340 370 - 1,740 SE5 (Taytay) - 3,340 - 1,370 - 1,370 Total/Max 11,650 11,650 9,350 5,010 5,020 4,070 Source: Study Team

Table 3-23 AM Peak Hour Board/ Alight/ Line Volume in 2040 Eastbound Westbound Station Board Alight Line Vol. Board Alight Line Vol. SW8 (V.Mapa) 3,460 - 3,460 - 8,410 - SW7 1,200 - 4,660 - 2,990 8,410 SW6 1,170 30 5,800 50 3,050 11,400 SW5 210 250 5,760 640 380 14,400 SW4 (Shaw Blvd) 1,700 1,290 6,170 3,450 4,100 14,140 SW3 710 230 6,650 550 2,060 14,790 SW2 550 800 6,400 2,010 1,320 16,300 S1 680 110 6,970 290 1,140 15,610 SE2 - 860 6,110 2,140 - 16,450 SE3 - 2,040 4,070 4,730 - 14,320 SE4 - 1,520 2,550 3,490 - 9,590 SE5 (Taytay) - 2,550 - 6,100 - 6,100 Total/Max 9,680 9,670 6,970 23,450 23,440 16,450 Source: Study Team

3-29 Table 3-24 PM Peak Hour Board/ Alight/ Line Volume in 2040 Eastbound Westbound Station Board Alight Line Vol. Board Alight Line Vol. SW8 (V.Mapa) 8,250 - 8,250 - 3,680 - SW7 2,860 - 11,110 - 1,320 3,680 SW6 2,770 70 13,810 20 1,340 5,000 SW5 490 600 13,700 280 170 6,320 SW4 (Shaw Blvd) 4,040 3,060 14,680 1,520 1,800 6,210 SW3 1,700 550 15,830 240 910 6,490 SW2 1,310 1,910 15,230 880 580 7,160 S1 1,620 260 16,580 130 500 6,860 SE2 - 2,060 14,530 940 - 7,230 SE3 - 4,860 9,670 2,080 - 6,290 SE4 - 3,620 6,050 1,530 - 4,210 SE5 (Taytay) - 6,050 - 2,680 - 2,680 Total/Max 23,040 23,030 16,580 10,300 10,320 7,230 Source: Study Team

4) Road Performance Indicators The road performance indicators of with case and without case were shown in Table 3-25 and Table 3-26. The PCU-kms of Jeepney and Bus decrease each year due to converting to AGT form Jeepney and Bus. Due to decreasing the number of Jeepneys and Buses, the road congestion will be relieved. Therefore the PCU-Hours will decrease from 1,432,000 to 1,422,000 pcu-hours in 2023 and from 3,570,000 to 3,560,000 pcu-hours in 2053.

Table 3-25 PCU-kms (Mega Manila + Region III&IV)

with (‘000) without (‘000) Difference (‘000) Year CAR Jeepney BUS Truck CAR Jeepney BUS Truck CAR Jeepney BUS Truck Total

2023 58,453 13,694 7,859 23,478 58,451 13,979 7,873 23,439 2 -285 -15 39 -258

2030 65,305 13,829 9,180 28,103 65,297 14,215 9,230 28,054 8 -385 -50 49 -379

2040 77,474 15,317 10,554 34,649 77,461 15,814 10,613 34,593 13 -497 -60 57 -487

2053 94,044 18,729 12,863 43,033 94,055 19,247 12,895 42,979 -11 -518 -32 54 -507 Source: Study Team

Table 3-26 PCU-Hours (Mega Manila + Region III&IV) With (‘000) without (‘000) Difference (‘000) Year CAR Jeepney BUS Truck CAR Jeepney BUS Truck CAR Jeepney BUS Truck Total 2023 4,404 928 403 1,422 4,430 964 406 1,432 -26 -36 -3 -10 -75 2030 5,106 966 488 1,730 5,135 1,016 495 1,741 -29 -50 -6 -11 -97 2040 6,536 1,139 618 2,374 6,564 1,202 626 2,386 -28 -63 -9 -12 -112 2053 9,132 1,648 950 3,560 9,152 1,721 957 3,570 -19 -73 -6 -10 -109 Source: Study Team

3-30 3.3.3 System Selection (1) Basic Concept of the System Selection The roads from east to west which connecting the city center and the east of Metro Manila are always congested and road capacity is already saturated. Furthermore, the population is increasing in this area, and an introduction of new urban transport system which contribute to mitigate the traffic congestion is required. In this study, considering the following roles required to the urban transport system, system selection is conducted with comparing several systems. ・Mitigate the traffic congestion ・Providing high punctuality, and reducing commuting time ・Securing suitable transportation capacity ・Diversifying the selection of transportation means ・Securing commuter safety ・Creating harmony between its surroundings ・Reducing noise and environmental issues

(2) Comparison of the Transport System The comparison of transport system is conducted from the evaluation indexes of proposed route in "3.3.1 Route Selection", results of demand forecast in "3.3.2 Demand Forecast", introduction space, system features and impacts for the urban environment etc., and the most suitable system is proposed.

1) Candidates of the Transportation System Figure 3-13 shows the transport capacity of each system. Generally, small capacity transit system (BRT) is up to approximately 5,000 PPHPD, medium capacity transit system (monorail, elevated LRT and AGT) is 5,000-20,000 PPHPD and mass transit system (conventional railway, etc.) is 20,000PPHPD and over.

In this study, system comparison is conducted for those 5 systems (BRT, monorail, elevated LRT, AGT and conventional railway).

Figure 3-13 Scheduled Speed and Transport Capacity

50

40

AGT Conventional Railway 30 AGT Elevated LRT for Overseas Monorail Scheduled speed (km/h) 20 BRT

10 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 PPHPD (passenger/hour/direction) Source: Study Team

3-31 2) Evaluation Indexes As for the above mentioned 5 systems, system comparison is conducted from the viewpoints of economic, technical and social aspects, as well as operating features for the proposed route. By the comparison and examination with following evaluation indexes, the most suitable system for the project is proposed. - Demand and transport capacity - Introducing space - Technical features - Construction cost - Environmental and social perspectives - Evacuation method for emergency

3) Results of System Comparison Table 3-27 shows the results of system comparison for the above mentioned 5 systems.

The possibilities of adopting each system to the proposed route are mentioned below. - BRT is comparatively simple system and low construction cost, and expected less impact for the urban environment. Although, transport capacity cannot cover the transport demand of the proposed route, and also significant negative impact to the road congestion owing to the constructing BRT on the roads. Consequently, BRT is not recommended for the proposed route. - As for the conventional railway, it is difficult to construct at the section in urban area of Option-1 and 2. Construction of conventional railway is possible only for suburban area and Option-3.

In the section “3.3.1 Route Selection”, Option-2 route is recommended as the most suitable route from the evaluation result of passenger’s convenience and possibility of introducing space. The possibilities of adopting each system to the section between V. Mapa and Taytay of Option-2 are mentioned below. - Monorail, elevated LRT and AGT are possible to construct with advantages and disadvantages as mentioned in Table 3-27. - In those 3 systems, especially AGT has advantages for construction in urban area of Option-2, owing to high flexibility for the route alignment. By the features of AGT, it is possible to minimize the construction cost and land acquisition, and contribute to the passenger’s convenience and revitalization of commercial area with constructing the station close to the commercial building and harmonizing with commercial development.

Consequently, AGT is the most suitable system for the proposed route.

Additionally the AGT vehicles for overseas have following advantages. While AGT vehicles introduced in Japan are approx. 2.5 m of vehicle width and approx. 8.5 m of vehicle length, the AGT vehicles introduced in overseas are slightly bigger with approx. 2.8 m of vehicle width and approx. 11.2 m of vehicle length. In case introducing CBTC systems with 8-cars /train of overseas AGT vehicle and setting operation headway in 2.5 to 2 minutes, transport capacity becomes 25,000 to 32,000 PPHPD and possible to correspond high

3-32 demand. Furthermore, the AGT vehicle with maximum speed at 120 km/h has been developed in 2014 (maximum speed of existing overseas AGT vehicle is 80 km/h), and it is possible to introduce the section with long distance between the stations in suburban area, as well as the section with short distance between the stations in urban area.

Following examinations in this study are conducted for the Option-2 route and AGT.

3-33 Table 3-27 System Comparison

Source: Study Team 3-34 3.3.4 Depot Site Selection (1) Outline of the Depot A is a base to keep, maintain and repair train cars for appropriate management of each train car. It also serves as a base for the crew. Hence, it is required for the rail yard to fulfill its functions by being equipped with facilities pertaining to the safekeeping, composition, examination and repair of train cars and and lodging for the crew.

Furthermore, the rail yard will be equipped with a general management office or a maintenance management facility for the system and other facilities to manage and maintain the safe operations of the medium capacity transit system.

(2) Candidate Sites for the Depot As stated above, a rail yard for a medium capacity transit system has to allocate each facility that is involved in the safekeeping, examination, repair and management of the train cars. Hence, a comparatively large site would be necessary.

While selecting a site for the rail yard, the site must fulfil the following requirements. • Secure the necessary area size for an operation facility and able to fulfil the functions of a rail yard. • From the perspective of operations, be in a position where no empty train cars are left. • Able to support the environment and conform to the use of its surroundings. • The entry and exiting route to the main route can be placed smoothly. • The safekeeping line, examination line, repair line and other facilities can be effectively placed within the rail yard. • Able to install and discharge train cars and other materials easily.

For the proposed route, there are business towns, residential areas, factories and future development plans gathering at the sites along the railway. It would be difficult for one site to fulfil all the requirements. Hence, we have carried out researches and attended hearing sessions at each city and have come up with 6 candidate sites that can be used. Figure 3-14 shows the current situation of each rail yard candidate site.

From the results of this research and the hearing session at each city, after obtaining the information and permission from Taytay city, the site at the east of Taytay city hall (location number 5 in Figure 3-14) has been considered as a candidate site. In the future, the maximum number of train that meets the requirements for the calculated size would be 31 trains in 2053 (refer to Table 3-35).

3-35 Figure 3-14 Candidate Sites for Depot

Development plans are currently ① carried out. Hence, it cannot be used.

Not enough area space. To secure a ② loading and unloading route into the rail yard would be difficult.

③ This site cannot be used as a rail yard.

It is a steep terrain on top of a hill. Big land reclamation would be necessary. ④ Train car installation would be difficult. 3-36 Even though there are many land ⑤ owners it is possible to acquire the site. This is a government property with and rehabilitation centers. ⑥ Government approval and relocation of such facilities are required.

Source: Study Team 3.4 Project Plan Overview

3.4.1 Route Plan (1) Outline of the Route Based on the routes considered in 3.3.1, the outline of Option-2 route is as follows.

1) Existing Railway Networks and Hubs The route connects existing railway networks through the following 2 locations. ・V. Mapa station on the LRT2 line The V. Mapa station is on the LRT2 line at the Magsaysay Boulevard road. The surrounding of the station is in the Sta. Mesa district and it is a commercial district with big shopping centers and small shops. Since, there are also a few universities close to the station, there will be much traffic. ・Shaw Boulevard station on the MRT3 line The Shaw Boulevard station on the MRT3 line is at the traffic intersection of EDSA and Shaw Boulevard road. It is one of Manila’s many busy shopping and entertainment districts with big shopping malls, upscale , local markets and bus terminals. There are many people and there are also cars, buses, taxis and jeepneys in big numbers around the station, resulting in heavy congestions daily.

2) Situation of the Facilities along the Railway Route The situation of the facilities surrounding the route has been categorized into three districts.

a) From V. Mapa to Shaw Boulevard (EDSA) In this area, there are residential areas expanding along the Shaw Boulevard road and there is a big and a school at one part of the road. Across from the road, there are offices and commercial shops. Especially as we get closer to EDSA road, along the roads we see the number of offices and commercial facilities increasing and the landscape slowly resembles a business district.

b) From Shaw Boulevard (EDSA) to Ortigas CBD District This area is a central business district with high-rise buildings. Besides offices, there are hotels and big shopping malls, making it a place with high human traffic. Plus, based on the number of cars and shared taxis, traffic congestions occur daily from morning to night.

c) From Ortigas CBD district to Taytay District This area is along the Ortigas road that heads to Taytay city on the east of Manila. The surroundings are largely residential areas. The area from Ortigas to Eulogio Rodrigues Jr. Avenue (also known as C5) sees detached housing areas expanding. The area close to and Mangahan Floodway has conventional houses and mills along the riverbed. Plus, to the east of Cainta city, there are conventional houses, small factories and shopping centers mutually existing. Part of the area houses big automobile and electronic factories. The surroundings of Taytay city see a decrease in factories and are mostly occupied by residential areas. On the hilly terrains at the same east side, there are also residential developments going on and it is

3-37 expected that residential areas continue to increase.

3) Future Railway Route Plans There are two route plans for this railway route as shown below. a) Skyway Stage 3 Plan DPWH includes the building plans of an elevated route based on the Skyway stage 3 plans. This elevated route will intersect 5this route with the southeast side of V. Mapa station. (The red part of Figure 3-15.) This route is a 2 level elevated structure.

Figure 3-15 Skyway Stage 3 Plan

N

Source: DPWH Website b) C3 Route Plan DPWH includes the building of C3 route plans. This route is built as a circular route within Manila city. This route intersects with route C3 at San Juan River. (The red part of Figure 3-16.) This route is also a two-level elevated structure.

Figure 3-16 C3 Route Plan

Source: Study Team

4) Introduction Space The introduction space of this route will basically use the area above ground and be an exclusive elevated

3-38 orbital route.

However, since both route plans above are two-level elevated structures, those routes would need to be above 30m from the ground. Hence, the following considerations are necessary. - Attention to earthquake resistance features of structures that exceeds 30m in earthquake prone areas. - The road width of areas with elevated route plans are narrow, and the height of tall structures will impair the scenery - Continuance of sudden steep will cause discomfort during the rides Based on the above considerations, building an underground system in those two route plans can be considered as more desirable.

(2) Station Location Plans The station of the proposed orbital public transportation system will be planned in consideration of the following factors as shown in the table below.

Table 3-28 Basic Principles of the Station Layout Item Summary Customer service 1) With or without demand and facilities to draw commuters while considering speed, the station will be 2 to 3 km within a suburban area and 1 to 1.5 km within the city center. 2) A station that provides a connection with existing railway lines, is a station that allows smooth transit between other railway stations and the medium-weight transportation system. 3) To build a station that is close to facilities that draws crowds commuters Route 1) The is essentially placed linearly along the track. requirements 2) The station building will be placed at a location that doesn’t have any vertical slopes （and this includes switches in the event that those switches are placed closed to the station ） Future plans 1) The terminal at Taytay’s side is at a place that allows future expansion. Operation 1) In the event that the loading and unloading line heading towards the management rail yard is placed in the middle of the route, the connecting point of the loading and unloading line with the actual line will be built near the station for smooth loading and unloading at the rail yard. Source: Study Team

(3) Platform Type The outline of the typical platform types like the island type and the split type is shown as follows. Based on this research, for the use above ground, the standard would be the island type that can accommodate narrow stations. For the V. Mapa Station on the LRT2 line and the connecting station, considering operations and responses during an emergency situation, a dual face three-line bay will be used.

3-39 Table 3-29 Comparisons of Platform Types Type Split platform

Diagram

Width of the Compare to the split platform, the width is Compared to the island platform, the width entire station narrower. is wider. One platform is enough for both directions Each platform serves different directions. Service on of the commuters. The appointed Hence two separate services or facilities the platform stationmaster will be able to serve both will be required on each platform. sides at the same time. The track before and after the station will The track before and after the station be Linear track have bends. linear. Commuters from both directions use the Each platform would require separate Exits and same platform so both commuters can and . entrances share the same facilities like the stairs and . The cost of installing stairs and elevators is The cost of installing stairs and elevators is Installation comparatively lower than a split platform. comparatively higher than an island costs platform. At the terminals, commuters do not have to After its opening, expansion or new station worry about getting onto the wrong projects can be carried out without Others platform, which is a highly convenient changing the course. feature. Source: Study Team

(4) The Station Structure and Installation

Table 3-30 Station Structure and Installation Item Summary Basic structure The station building will be placed in an elevated space above ground or in the event of a tunnel part, as an underground station below ground. Platform length 80m in length. 12m (car length) x 6 cars (the number of cars that make 1 train) + 4m*2 (leeway in the front and at the back). Platform Platform are placed for the safety of the commuters at the platform. As part of its universal design, the whole station will be equipped with elevators. AFC Automatic ticket vending and automatic ticket will carry out fare collection. Source: Study Team

Based on the requirements above, the location of the station of the route is shown in Figure 3-17.

3-40 Figure 3-17 Map of Station Location

SW8(V.Mapa)

SW7 SE2 SW6 S1 SW5 SE3

SW2

SW4(Shaw Blvd) SW3 SE4 3-41

SE5(Taytay)

Source: Study Team (5) Station Location Table 3-31 shows the platform type of each station and the station’s location and surrounding facilities. Figure 3-18 shows the connections.

Table 3-31 Station Location Distance km (in between Station name Platform type Conditions surrounding the station approximate) stations (m) SW8 7k953m Bay, split This connects to V. Mapa station. There are big shopping centers nearby and a shopping (V. Mapa) 1,238 (Underground) street in front of the station. Split It is a densely populate residential area with SW7 6k715m a big hospital. (Underground) 1,741 Split It is a densely populated residential area. SW6 4k974m (Elevated) 799 Island There are many office and commercial SW5 4k175m districts on the track with densely populated (Elevated) 1,299 residential areas as its background. Located at the intersection with MRT3 line. SW4 Split There are many commercial buildings like 2k876m (Shaw Blvd) (Elevated) local shopping centers and big malls around 942 the station. Island It is a business district with hotels and SW3 1k934m schools nearby. (Elevated) 563 Island It is a business district with big malls and SW2 1k371m hotels nearby. (Elevated) 1,371 Island It is a business district with many eateries S1 0k000m and commercial buildings. (Elevated) 2,322 Island A densely populated residential area. The SE2 2k322m traffic is heavy at the intersection of a big (Elevated) 2,994 road that heads to Marikina. Island It is the central district of Cainta city. There SE3 5k316m are big shopping centers and some factories (Elevated) 3,225 are scattered around the place. Island The surroundings are residential areas. It SE4 8k541m intersects with the road heading to Antipolo (Elevated) 1,881 city in the east and has jeepney stops. SE5 Island The surroundings are residential areas. There 10k422m are big shopping centers and many taxis and (Elevated) (Taytay) jeepneys. Source: Study Team

3-42 Figure 3-18 Connection Diagram

SW8 SW4 (V.Mapa) SW7 SW6 SW5 (Shaw Blvd) SW3 SW2 S1

SE2 SE3 SE4 SE5 Future Phase (Taytay)

Source: Study Team

3-43 3.4.2 Operation Plan (1) Demand The results of estimated demand based on the operation plan is shown in Table 3-32.

Table 3-32 Results of Estimated Demand Demand 2023 2030 2040 2053 Total number of commuters in 1 day (people/day) 236,000 350,300 464,800 485,700 Transportation amount per time used in a one-way travel (PPHPD) 9,350 14,270 16,580 17,030 Source: Study Team

(2) Transport Capacity 1) Transport Capacity per Train The transport capacity of a 6-cars train is shown in Table 3-33. While considering the situation in Manila and other examples of the number of commuters sitting and standing, we have used 7 people/m 2 as the standard.

Table 3-33 Transport Capacity per Train 1 train Number of commuters (passenger/car) Transport capacity (passenger/train) 6 cars 132 792 Source: Study Team

2) Operation Head and Transport Capacity To secure a transport capacity that meets the demands, we will have to look into the intervals between operations. In the previous section, if the train that carries the set transport capacity were to be operated at 2.5 minutes, 3 minutes 4 minutes or 5 minutes head, the transport capacity of the route will be as shown as in Table 3-34.

Table 3-34 Transport Capacity along the Route (PPHPD) Operation head (minutes) 2.5 3 4 5 Train 6 train cars 19,000 15,480 11,880 9,500 Source: Study Team

(3) Operation Requirements 1) Operating Hours Considering the operating hours of lines LRT1, LRT2 and MRT3 and the requirement to meet its role as one of Manila’s transportation network and a daily means of transportation for commuters on the way to work, school or shopping, the operating hours of this route will be from 5 in the morning to 11 at night, with a total of 18 hours.

3-44 2) Scheduled Speed The train’s scheduled speed is estimated from the average distance between stations and the train’s addition subtraction speed and its highest speed. Because this route is going to install on the structure separated from car traffic, traffic congestion will not affect the train’s speed. Furthermore, we do not have to consider the effects of any gradient slopes. The scheduled speed will be about 30km/h for a train that requires about 74 minutes to make a return trip, for a route with a total length of 18.4km, 12 stations and a 25-second stop at each station (a 50-second stop at the terminal).

(4) Required Number of Train Set Considering the future growing demands, the route’s transportation power will improve in 2029. The required number of train cars is decided from the operation head and the train cars based on the transportation power need to provide for each stage. The required number of train set and the operation interval for each stage is as follows.

Table 3-35 Operation Interval and Required Number of Train Set Operation interval Required number of train set Year Train cars (minutes) Operating Standby Prepared Total - 2028 6 cars 5 - 3.5 20 1 3 24 2029 - 2053 /train set 3.5 - 2.7 27 1 3 31 Source: Study Team

3-45 3.4.3 Vehicle Plan (1) General Based on operation plan in Section 3.4.2, the train is a 6-car vehicle. Multiple vehicles can be coupled together using automatic couplers on both ends of vehicles for emergency rescue case.

The car body is a welded design with aluminium alloy extrusions and panels in order to reduce weight and minimize energy consumption. Photo 3-2 shows the overview of a sample vehicle from other AGT project. The exterior appearance is modern with clean-lines and will incorporate an aerodynamic end cap at each vehicle end.

These production vehicles have been designed to install a sense of confidence in the passengers and convey an image consistent with this technology and its design. The vehicle has smooth lines, a unique diamond shape and an entirely modern interior.

The trains are normally operated in Semi-automated train operation (STO). The train can also be operated by a fully automatic mode as an option.

Photo 3-2 AGT Vehicle (Sample)

Source: Study Team

(2) Vehicle Type and Specifications 1) Key Parameters The key parameters and overview of the vehicle are shown in Table 3-36 and Figure 3-19.

3-46 Table 3-36 Key Parameters Formation 6-cars /train Total Train Length Approx.71 m Car Width Approx.2.7 m Car Height Approx.3.6 m Weight/Train (without passengers) 103 t Maximum Weight/Train 151 t Capacity /Train (@ 7persons/m 2) 792 passengers Maximum Speed 80 km/h Source: Study Team

Complementary: While AGT vehicles introduced in Japan are approx. 2.5 m of vehicle width and approx. 8.5 m of vehicle length, the AGT vehicles introduced in overseas are slightly bigger with approx. 2.8 m of vehicle width and approx. 11.2 m of vehicle length. In case introducing CBTC systems with 8-cars /train of overseas AGT vehicle and setting operation headway in 2.5 to 2 minutes, transport capacity of 25,000 to 32,000 PPHPD are possible. Furthermore, the AGT vehicle with maximum speed at 120 km/h has been developed in 2014 (maximum speed of existing overseas AGT vehicle is 80 km/h), and it is possible to introduce the section with long distance between the stations in suburban area, as well as the section with short distance between the stations in urban area.

2) On-Board Equipment (Command, Control and Communication System) Following on-board equipment (command, control and communication system) is installed.  ATP/ATO controller  Vehicle communication Controller  Dynamic sign  Speaker  Intercom  Manual operation panel  Etc.

3-47 Figure 3-19 Vehicle Overview 3-48

Source: Study Team 3.4.4 Civil Plan (1) Upper Section Work General upper section work is the preparation of a PC box girder with the length of 30m that has an excellent installation. The box girder fits the spot where the curve is steep and the torsional stiffness is large. Furthermore, the trapezoidal box girder that is used to shorten the base width of the box is comparatively more pleasing in appearance. In the cross-section of the river, the wide span spot will use a steel slab beam.

(2) Support Beam The support beam will be basically built in the middle of the road. A space of more than 5m from the lower limit of the elevated structure to the space above ground will be secured. The construction form will basically either be RC or steel T type support beams.

(3) Others In regards to the execution of design, detailed measurements of the actual place, geological research, buried objects and overhead wire research is required. For spots where the width of the centre of the road is too narrow, and building of support beams is impossible, it is necessary to consider an alternative by a measurement results. Furthermore, it is necessary to consider the form of the based on the geological survey.

(4) Standard Cross Section The standard cross-section of the structure will be shown in Figure 3-20.

Figure 3-20 Standard Cross Section

2 6.2 2.6 6.2 2

19.0

Source: Study Team

3-49 3.4.5 Station Facilities Plan (1) Standard Station The elevated standard station built in airspace above ground uses either the island type or the split type platform. The images of an elevated standard station are shown as below.

Figure 3-21 Standard Station (Island type)

Concourse

Source: Study Team

Figure 3-22 Standard Station (Split type)

25

6 to 8.5

2 Stair case 2 2 2 Side way 4 17 4 Side way Two lane each way

Source: Study Team

(2) Station Facilities The images of the facilities in a station are shown in Photo 3-3.

3-50 Photo 3-3 Station Facilities

3 level elevated station (image) Facilities to the concourse (image) Escalator, stairs

Facilities to the concourse (image) Automatic ticket vending machines (image) Escalator

Automatic ticket gates(image ） Platform doors (image) Source: Study Team

(3) Connection of the MRT Line 3 Shaw Boulevard Station This route’s SW4 station is located near the intersection of Shaw Boulevard road and EDSA and there are plans connect to the Shaw Boulevard station on the MRT Line 3.

Currently this intersection, from the EDSA side, there is a 4 level structure with the EDSA underpass underground, the EDSA above ground, the MRT3 line on level 2 and the concourse of MRT3 line on level 3. Perpendicularly to the EDSA, we have the Shaw Boulevard that is above ground and a flyover that is 3 levels above ground and goes over the course of the MRT3 line.

The location of the station building of this route is between the flyover on Shaw Boulevard road and the station on the MRT3 line, with the concourse on level 2 and the platform on level 3. (Refer to Figure 3-23).

3-51 Figure 3-23 Proposed Connection of the MRT Line 3 and SW4 Station

Source: Study Team

3-52 3.4.6 Track/Electricity/Signal/Telecommunication System Plans (1) Track Course and guide Rails The course is built from the following parts.  Track course and guide rails  Switches  Buffer stops  Emergency route The track course will also carry power rails, electricity distribution lines, and cables for the signals and telecommunication in the cable trays.

1) Track Course The following figure shows the track course. The upper surfaces of two parallel cast-in-place concrete form the running surface for the cars. The track is made within the specified permissible range. The finished surface is ensured adequate between the rubber and the running surface when accelerating and decelerating under all conditions.

Figure 3-24 Appearance of the Track Course (running surface, guide rails, switches)

Power rails

Guide rails

Guide plates on the Switch running surface Movable

Source: Study Team

2) Guide Rails The guide rails are the structures that support the car trains and weight transfers. The guide rail components include the guide rail, the base plates, and the installation equipment. In general, H-shaped steel beams are used for the guide rails.

3-53 3) Switches The switch consists of fixed and moveable U-shaped board attached to both sides of the track course, shunts powered by electricity and connecting rods. The idler wheel of the car is guided by the movable boards and used to direct the movement into the desired direction. Switches are controlled by ATC system, and because it is particularly protected by ATP subsystem, safe train operation is possible.

Figure 3-25 Switch Mechanism

Source: Study Team

4) At every end of the track course, a hydraulic buffer is installed. The role of the buffer is to ensure the trains will be brought to a safe and controlled stop in the unlikely event that they overrun the designated stopping position.

3-54 Photo 3-4 Buffer Stops

Source: Study Team 5) Emergency route Photo 3-5 Emergency Route

Source: Study Team

Figure 3-26 Standard Sectional View of the Emergency Route in the Centre of the Track

Source: Study Team

(2) Electrical Power Facilities Medium-capacity system uses electric motors and major equipment such as the signal system and the facilities in stations and depot are powered by electricity. Therefore, power shortage or power

3-55 interruption will directly result in disruption of train service. As a solution, a redundant power system is necessary.

The power system supplies efficient power for the train’s operation in consideration of the system’s redundancy. The power supply system, as a collector substation, uses electrical lines from the power station (MERALCO) to receive electricity and supplies electricity to each distributing substation and the station’s substation along the track.

1) Collector Substation The electric company’s 60Hz/115kV or 230kV is received from 2 collector substations through electrical lines. At the substation, the alternating current is converted to 34.5kV and supplied to distributing substations and the station’s substation and station service substations by two lines. These 2 distributing substations are facilities that can supply power to the whole line (planned capacity: 17,000kW/h/substation).

2) Distributing Substations and the Station’s Substation The capacity of distributing substations and the station’s substations is designed to maintain a normal operation even if a certain substation is stopped due to failure or inspection, to supply power to other substations. Distributing substations and the station’s substation are installed with a distance of approximately 3km. When operation of a certain substation is disrupted, each of the two adjoined substations supplies power for approx. 4.5km (additional 1.5km (3km ÷2) of section powered by disrupted substation). If the scope exceeds 5km, serious voltage drop shall be expected. Therefore, each substation shall feed power for a section of less than 5 km. When the distance of power transmission exceeds 5km, it is predicted that a voltage drop will occur. Hence, each substation will supply electricity within a radius of less than 5km.

3) Power Electricity is supplied by a distributing substation, which converts the alternating current 34.5kV/60Hz to 750V. Distributing power voltage’s fluctuating range is from 900V to 500V in compliance with the IEC standard. With 2 redundant receiving lines, each substation is structured with a distributing that has the necessary capacity based on the operation plans. A sectional switch with a transformer and a single feeder under the permissible connection offers 100% redundancy. With this structure, supply of power through the lines will not be disrupted even if there is power failure at any one location.

4) Station’s Power Supply Power supply for stations, depot, signal system and switches, is distributed to at each station and each depot, and then supplied to the equipment at an appropriate voltage.

5) Backup Power Supply The Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) provides power in the event that main power supply experiences an interruption.

3-56 The UPS provides backup power for the following systems:  ATC system including the central control facility  The control power of the power supply system  Telecommunications equipment (CCTV, public announcement, emergency phone, wireless, sign)  Emergency light  Safety and system  Data communication, transmission system  Switches The UPS facility uses sill-resistant batteries and the power source is an alternating current.

(5) Power Rails Traction power is supplied to the vehicle through positive and negative power rails installed along the guide way. Propulsion power cables are connected each segment of the power rails on the guide way to the 750 V DC bus. The traction power is collected by two current collectors from two rigid, side contact power rails mounted on the guide way. Figure 3-27 shows power rail installation from other AGT system.

Distributing along the guide plates is supplied from the power rails to the train cars. The segments of the distributing electric power cables and power rails are connected and connect to a 750V direct current. Distributing electric power is collected through two pairs of power collectors from rigid power rails that are attached onto the surface of the track. Photo 3-6 shows the placement of the AGT system’s power rails. Power rails are made of the following.  Power rails with aluminium and stainless steel compound  Mounting devices to clamp the power rails in both the vertical and horizontal directions  Supporting clamps and anchor bolts  Thermal expansion points  Terminal fixtures

Photo 3-6 Example of a Location of Power Rail

Source: Study Team Figure 3-27 Power Rail Structure

3-57 Electrical train line AL/SUS (aluminium and stainless steel compound) Linear parts 3.0 m Distance between insulators Bends 1.5 m

Power distribution cable CV cable

Source: Study Team

(4) Power Control System Power supply is controlled at the CTC center via the SCADA System. SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition), which is a centralized system that is able to monitor and control distributed power facilities. The main purpose is for remote supervising of a railway power supply system.

(5) Blue Light Station A blue light station cuts the power supply of pressurized areas along the platform during emergencies as defined in NFPA 130, and it is located at the following areas.  End of the platform  Emergency accent points  Distributing substations

(6) Signal System The signal system AGT system mainly encompasses three subsystems under the wireless train control system (CBTC).  Automatic train protection (ATP) subsystem: ATP provides control functions in regards to safety  Automatic train operation (ATO) subsystem: ATO provides automatic-mode train operation functions, subject to the constraints imposed by the ATP.  Automatic train supervision (ATS) subsystem: ATS monitors system status and overall operation, manages the system communications interface. ATS performs data recording on operations and sends out warnings to the system when an abnormality occurs. In addition, ATS provides human- interface that can be controlled from the center.

3-58 Human interface for the ATS system is located in the operation control center (OCC), where the operators can monitor and control the system through ATS. In addition, OCC also allows the control and monitoring of the telecommunication system and changes in the power supply system.

Photo 3-7 OCC

Source: Study Team

1) ATP Subsystem ATP subsystem includes the following main functions.  Presence detection  Route settings  Unintentional motion detection  Over speed prevention  Overrun prevention  Prevention of cars from disengaging  Lost signal protection  Detection of zero speed  Prevention of unintentional door control  Door control protection  Departure interlocking  Directional change interlocking  Braking interlocking  Switch interlocking ATP functions have precedence over both the ATO and ATS functions.

2) ATO Subsystem ATO subsystem includes the following main functions.  Operation control  Stop at fixed point by the program

3-59  Door and stop-time control

3) ATS Subsystem ATS subsystem includes the following main functions.  Monitor the conditions of operations  Control and override operations

(7) Communication System The communication system is for an effective daily operation of the railway system that provides monitoring information on the situation, necessary communication to restore the system quickly during an emergency. The main equipment is as follows.  Wireless communication systems (Train radio, emergency alarms, wireless for maintenance)  Telephone facilities (Office telephones, command telephones, interphones etc.)  CCTV monitoring facilities  Guidance broadcasting facilities  Other facilities (Fiber optic LAN, clock, UPS)

1) Train radio and Emergency Alarm Systems Train radio is for all communications between the OCC and each train on the route for a safe operation. Plus, the system provides an exchange of communication for smooth operations within the rail yard.

The emergency alarm system is a facility that responds when an emergency occurs on any train on the route that prevents secondary casualties with the emergency alarm features and emergency brake systems.

Photo 3-8 Train radio equipment at the OCC

Source: Study Team

3-60 Photo 3-9 Emergency Broadcast Equipment at the OCC

Source: Study Team

2) Telephone Facilities The telephone facilities are made from a telephone line for office use that uses digital PBX and for direct method technical operations that is used only for commands. The office telephone at each station goes through fiber optic LAN equipment allowing the simultaneous use of cordless handsets.

The command telephones makes communication between the 4 systems; operations, power supply, rail and the switch stand with the OCC possible. At the same time, the rail and the switch stand system can use the office phone simultaneously.

Photo 3-10 Telephone Facilities

Source: Study Team

3) CCTV Each station will be equipped with CCTV cameras to monitoring the situations at the platform and concourse from the OCC. An exclusive fiber optic LAN is used only for image transmission because the size of transmitted images is large. Plus, each station building can monitor its own station premises. These images at the station including the rail yard can be recorded.

3-61 Photo 3-11 CCTV System

Source：Study Team

4) Guidance Broadcasting Facilities At each station, the approximation, arrival and departure of the train will be announced. General broadcasts will be broadcasted from the OCC’s operation management facility. However, it is also possible for optional broadcasts from each station’s broadcasting facility or from the OCC’s.

Photo 3-12 Guidance Broadcasting System

Source: Study Team

5) Interphones The interphones provide the commuters at the platform and at the station’s concourse (automatic ticket vending machine, automatic ticket , etc.) a means of communication with the OCC. The commuters’ cordless phones serve as a universal design and use the fiber optic facility of the station’s telecommunication lines.

Photo 3-13 Interphone System

Source: Study Team

3-62 6) Fiber Optic LAN Facilities For the OCC and the trains or among the stations to transmit regulated data or audio data efficiently, fiber optic LAN is used. The fiber optic cables allow high precision transmission even in environments that have a lot of background noises like induced noise, thunder and crosstalk interference.

7) Clocks The clocks used by the railway system is a master clock that sends time signals to secondary clocks that are placed at rail yards, each station, time servers that transmit information on the time to the rail yard management equipment, power management equipment and operation management equipment.

8) UPS In respond to a blackout, to maintain the main telecommunication device, each station and rail yard’s telecommunication is equipped with a UPS.

3-63 3.4.7 Depot Plan and Facility Plan (AFC System) The facilities required for the initial stages of the AGT system are installed in the depot however, it is being planned for an area which can accommodate the number of vehicles expected for future expansion. The depot area is planned at length 620 m, width 108m, area 6.7 ha in the east side of Taytay City Hall.

Figure3-28 Depot Site

Source: Study Team

(1) Depot Functions The main functions of the depot are as follows.  Stabling facility: stabling track for vehicles outside of operating service.  Inspection and maintenance facility: Facility for inspection and maintenance of AGT system vehicles.

3-64  General control building: General administration office which includes a system operation office and operation .  Substation: For provision of a power source for main line and depot operating power, other various power and lighting.  Maintenance vehicle stabling track: Stabling track for maintenance vehicles which carry out route, structure and electrical facility inspections and maintenance.  Vehicle washing facility: Vehicle cleaning and vehicle washing facility  Other: Drainage treatment facilities, warehousing, oil storage, etc.

(2) Depot Layout The track will be installed at grade inside the depot. The stabling track and inspection and maintenance track are kept level and straight for stopping and parking of vehicles. The depot layout is shown in Figure 3-29.

Figure 3-29 Depot Layout

Test track track Automatic car washing track Inspection & Overhaul Main Control Building Stabling track

Maintenance vehicle track Departure inspection track

Source: Study Team

(3) Function and Roles of Each Track 1) Approach Track (1 tracks) This track is the approach track between main line and depot. The entrance to the depot shall be a downgrade from elevated level. The gradient for the approach track shall be 60‰ or less.

2) Arrival/Departure Inspection Track (2 tracks) This track will be located on a straight, flat section which connects to the approach track for inspections of vehicles before departure.

3) Stabling Track 7 stabling tracks will be installed for AGT system vehicles to stable in the depot. There are other tracks than this stabling track, the following tracks will be able to use for stabling vehicles.  Light maintenance track (4 lines) : 4 trainsets(24 vehicles)  Heavy maintenance track (2 lines) : 2 trainsets(12 vehicles)  Unscheduled maintenance track (1 lines) : 1 trainsets(6 vehicles)  Car Washing Track (2 lines) : 2 trainsets(12 vehicles)  Arrival/Departure inspection track (1 lines) : 1 trainsets(6 vehicles)

3-65 Figure3-30 Stabling Track Layout Plan

Test track Shunting track Inspection & Overhaul Workshop Automatic car washing track Main Control Building

Stabling track Maintenance vehicle track Departure inspection track

Source: Study Team

4) Automatic Car Washing Track (2 track) A vehicle washing machine will be installed on this track and used to wash vehicles. Vehicle interior cleaning will be carried out on the stabling track.

5) Test Track (1 track) The test track is necessary to be installed in the depot in order to test runs of vehicles after maintenance. The length of this test track shall be approximately 350m.

6) Shunting Track Shunting tracks will be installed to allow vehicles movement within the depot. Vehicles shall not be stabled on these tracks.

7) Stabling Track for Maintenance Vehicles (1 track) Stabling track for maintenance vehicles will be installed for stabling maintenance vehicles that need to carry out a maintenance for running surface and other facilities.

(4) Inspection/Maintenance Track and Frequency 1) Inspection Track (4 tracks) Track for carrying out train inspections (every 3 days), monthly inspections (every 3 months) and other daily maintenance.

2) Heavy Maintenance Track (2 track) Track for carrying out heavy overhauls (every year, every 3 years) and semi overhauls (every 6 years).

3) Unscheduled Maintenance Track (1 track) Track for carrying out repair and inspection of parts for vehicles or entire vehicles at any time as needed in the event of the following. In case vehicles are manufactured or purchased. In case crash or large-scale accident occurs. In case large-scale reconstruction or repair is carried out.

3-66 (5) Depot inspection and maintenance facilities Typical main equipment is shown in Table 3-37.

Table 3-37 Typical Main Equipment No. Description Quantity 1 Car Washing Machine 2 2 Lifting Jacks, 6 t 6 sets 3 Stand 24 4 Body Stand 12 sets 5 2 6 Umbilical Power Cable (Stinger) 7 sets 7 Wheel Tire Changer 2 8 Forklift 2 9 Mobile Lift Table 2 Source: Study Team

(6) General Control Building In this building, OCC which carries out the operation of vehicles in the main line and depot, offices for various management and maintenance division and other required facilities will be installed.

(7) Other Facilities  Receiving substation  , oil storage  Drainage treatment facility  Emergency  Other

(8) Depot Operation Mode Vehicles are operated by semi-automatic driving mode in stabling track of the depot. When vehicles enter to maintenance workshop, vehicles are operated by driver’s manual driving mode. Inside the workshop power is provided through the installed power cables (stingers).

(9) Facility Plan (AFC system) The introduction of the AFC system is planned and considered from the plans of the integrated system and the examples from the actual location. Here are the assumed requirements. ・At first, as a fare collection system in replace of a railway operator, the center server is set up. In the near future, it will connect to the clearing center and carry out calculations among special business operators. ・Tickets will be IC cards that can be topped up with money. ・Tickets are sold at automatic ticket machines or manned by station masters. ・ calculations will be handled at windows manned by station masters or exit fare machines.

3-67 ・The fares are calculated based on zones.

1) Automatic Ticket Vending Machine The automatic ticket vending machine sells IC cards after it collects the cash and overwrites the selected ride’s data onto the IC card.

Photo3-14 Automatic Ticket Vending Machine

Source: Study Team

2) Automatic Ticket Gate The automatic ticket gate allows the entry of commuters after reading the card information and verifying the validity. In the event of insufficient charge, error of entrance appearance record, the gate closes and it will notify the commuter of insufficient funds with a display and an alarm. To exit, the commuter has to touch his or her card onto the automatic ticket gate and the fare will be deducted from the card’s balance and the commuter will be allowed to exit. If the balance is insufficient, the gate closes and it will notify the commuter of insufficient funds with a display and an alarm.

Photo 3-15 Automatic Ticket Gate (Flap Type)

Source: Study Team

3) Exit Fare Machine in the Ticket The ticket windows use the exit fare machines for the following operations. ・Exit fare calculations

3-68 ・Entry/Exit ・Top up ・Refund ・Collection of unused cards/Deposit refunds

Photo 3-16 Exit Fare Machine in the Ticket Window

Source: Website

4) Equipment Composition of the AFC System Each station’s automatic ticket vending machines, automatic ticket gates, exit fare machines are connected to the station’s server. The station’s server monitors each machine’s condition and processes the calculations and sales of tickets. The station’s server is connected to the centre’s server accumulates processed data from the station and sends it to the centre’s server. Furthermore, the centre’s server will send validity information of IC cards to the station’s server, and verify IC cards at each station’s automatic ticket vending machines, automatic ticket gates and exit fare machines.

Figure 3-31 Equipment Composition of the AFC System

Source: Study Team

3-69 3.4.8 Operation / Maintenance Management Plan (1) Implementing Organization As the implementing organizations for the proposed track-guided transport system, implementing and operating agency and project management unit as the implementing organization during the construction period are described below.

1) Implementing and Operating Agency (Owner/Concessionaire) Existing railway systems in the Philippines have the operating organizations respectively. In the same way, implementing and operating agency for the proposed project (the East West Rail (EWR) 1) is necessary to establish. The proposed project is expected to be a one of the main transport system in Metro Manila or even in the entire Philippines. This operating organization will be newly established under the existing Government agencies and supported by Government of Philippines (GOP) and Department of Transport and Communications (DOTC). Whether there will be a newly founded agency or using an existing unit such as LRTA, MRTC or PNR, it should be decided in the immediate future by the main stakeholders, such as DOTC, Philippine National Railways (PNR), and Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA).

This section describes the organization plan of the operating organization assuming the establishment of East West Rail Corporation (EWRC) 2 in terms of its positioning, role and responsibility as East West Rail operator and implementing agency, and indicates those responsibilities and tasks that could be given in concession according to the type of implementation scheme, if any, adopted during the implementation of the EWR. The EWRC legal set up and by-laws should be similar or mirrored to the legal framework of Light Rail Transit Authority (LRTA).

2) Creation of Project Management Unit (PMU) During the implementation of the project, a Project Management Unit (PMU) should be created as the organization to be in charge of the actual implementation of the project and liaison with the Consultant, Contractor, and other concerned stakeholders. As the formal establishment of the EWRC would take time, an interim PMU, within the authority of DOTC, shall be set up. This PMU, whether as interim or in final form, could be an existing entity, or a new unit within DOTC.

In case of an interim PMU, it should take responsibility for the initial duties until the formal establishment of the PMU within EWRC. The staff of the former should be absorbed by the latter. The staff of this PMU will be critical for the success of the project and the EWRC. The main scope of works of the PMU is summarized below as follows: i) Reviews the Consultants design methods, standards and criteria used in the preparation of the design; ii) Assures that the Contractor’s work complies with the plans and specifications of the contract by conducting regular site inspections; iii) Monitors work accomplishment of the contractors;

1 Proposed name 2 Proposed name

3-70 iv) Analyzes and interprets financial statements/reports; v) Responsible for all matters relating to and transactions related to the Bureau of Internal Revenue; vi) Responsible for the safekeeping of all project records and correspondences; vii) Coordinates with EWRC Accounting Division and Commission on Audit regarding financial transactions of the PMU; viii) Coordinates with the ODA Bank’s Representatives regarding the Bank’s Guidelines, which includes, but not limited to, environmental & social safeguards, procurement, monitoring of implementation, and disbursements financed from ODA loans, if any; ix) Prepares all financial reports other than the PMU’s financial statements as may be required by EWRC, The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) and fiscal authorities/other agencies; and x) Monitors and assists in the verifications of disbursements that are financed under the ODA loans (Foreign Currency).

3) Scope of Work for EWRC The following Table 3-38 shows the list of tasks that EWRC is responsible for in the operation and maintenance services. This is the key to which tasks an individual party can access, review, handle and ultimately how a task is routed and approved.

Table 3-38 EWRC Tasks and Duties No. Task Category Description of the Task Category I. Management To formulate policies, prescribe and promulgate the rules and regulations Implements, enforces, and applies the policies, plans, standards, guidelines, procedures, decisions, rules and regulations issues, legal affairs, and public relations. II. Administration The administration-related departments and section shall advise and assist the Management in the formulation and implementation of rules and regulations necessary to carry out the objectives and policies of the authority concerning administrative, finance, accounting, budget, human resources, etc. III. Operation To ensure the safe, reliable and efficient operating of the railway and satisfactory service to the passengers on a day-to-day basis. IV. Maintenance To perform the daily and the long term planning and execution of scheduled and unscheduled, preventive and corrective maintenance actions to ensure overall systems are ready for required operation at all times. V. Engineering & Advise and assist the Management in the formulation and implementation of Construction rules and regulations necessary to carry out the objectives and policies of the EWRC concerning engineering. Monitor and be counterpart of Consultants and supervise Contractors. Source: Study Team

4) Organization Structure and Staffing of EWRC a) Organization Structure Consistency of responsibility and autonomy will facilitate integration of the O&M perspective into system design, which will reduce lifecycle costs and achieve long-term sustainability. Such a system would also make it possible to identify future EWRC leaders (technical managers required for the O&M phase) during the F/S and construction phases. Early identification of future leaders from the PMU organization will lead to early

3-71 capability-building activities in the organization, as they develop competency and acquire a holistic understanding of the integrated systems.

The EWRC organization shall start with a core team (i.e., PMU), and it will gradually evolve into its full form before start of the O&M phase. With the EWRC in charge of all phases, the engineers, supervisors, technicians, and operators (required for O&M phase) can be trained during the construction phase by the system contractors and Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) to equip them with necessary knowledge and skills to handle supervisory tasks for the O&M activities effectively. The technical training should be done by visiting successful cases overseas and by inviting contractors and OEMs to Manila. There should also be independent training on management and operational skill development, such as financial and business planning, maintenance auditing and service operations and general problem-solving. All successful overseas metro systems, such as the and Delhi Metros, share four key principles in their organizational design: i) The rail business unit (core) is designed as a function-based organization. This is necessary to achieve the required level of competency in each railway system function, which needs to have specialized functional areas. ii) The non-rail business unit (non-core) is designed differently from the rail business unit (core). This is important because the culture, skills, recruitment process, and business unit basis differ for the two businesses. Railway businesses require rigid adherence to technical standards to ensure safety and achieve specific operating standards, while non-rail businesses need creativity and flexibility to enhance non-fare box revenue. iii) All decision-making authority is delegated to the board. Complete empowerment of the EWRC Board of Directors can achieve transparent corporate governance, faster decision-making, and rapid project implementation. iv) An internal independent safety monitoring unit is important for controlling the system’s safety and security by monitoring daily O&M activities. Since a railway system involves running trains through narrow passages with a high density passenger load, it is critical to ensure safe and secure operations. b) Staffing Operations and maintenance system are established in the following steps; 1. Planning/Basic Design Stage including following; i) The hardware plan for the railway is essentially a matter that must be decided based on what sort of operation system will be implemented. Therefore, an entity that mainly carries out that task is required when planning a railway; ii) Generally, in an urban railway, a local government authority will, based on urban transport policies, independently carry out facility planning based on an operations structure and a standard of provided services; iii) In order to implement this, the EWRC must be established prior to the planning stage of Manila Metro, or the main planning body is set up and a system is put into place for possible discussion by the members who can fulfil the primary role of the EWRC in the future; and,

3-72 iv) Therefore, it is firmly suggested to develop the EWRC or the EWRC preparatory organization (collectively referred to as the “PMU”) as soon as possible. 2. Construction Bidding/Construction Management Stage including following; i) After the completion of basic planning and procurement of the necessary capital for construction, implementation of bidding and ordering and construction management will be conducted by the EWRC. At this stage, it is also necessary to procure the needed personnel in order to implement outsourcing of construction management as well as bidding; and, ii) Therefore, it is necessary to start the recruitment of personnel six months before the completion of basic planning, and when the basic planning is completed, it will only be necessary to secure the suitable personnel for bidding works. 3. System Expansion towards the Start of Business including following; i) Prior to the start of business operations, it will be necessary to train the personnel, particularly the drivers for the start of operation, in case a is required for the operation by the local authorities. Based on the number of required drivers, it is proposed that employment of a number of instructors shall be carried out at the stage when on-site training is possible in order to avoid last minute training; ii) Personnel who will be trained overseas require compliance for the acceptance by the concerned parties abroad, the objective is to obtain driving licenses that will undergo real-vehicle training; iii) To this end, 10 Filipino personnel will be required beforehand. After one year of training in Japan with proper education to become instructors, the personnel will conduct training to the driver including test drives at the start of operations for part or a section of the completed area. In case the period of training in the Philippines will take one year and the test drive will take six months to complete, training in Japan for the driving instructors will have to take place two and half years before the start of operations. Since it will take a long time to train everyone, recruitment will have to start more than three years before the start of operations; iv) It will not be a problem if the training period in other areas is short compared to drivers, but train control centre personnel require six months training before the start of test driving. There are 10 personnel, so a Japanese person will conduct training at the actual site. In order to be able to start training, recruitment will need to be done one year before starting operations. Furthermore, two people are required to undergo an instructional course in Japan to become leaders; v) The training period for station employees should take half a year from the start of test driving. However, the number of personnel is very large, and because it will not be cost-effective to have Japanese instructors, 20 local personnel (1 in 10 out of more than 200 people) will be recruited as instructors and will undergo an instructional course in Japan for one month; vi) Therefore, employment to secure the necessary number of station personnel will be carried out half a year before the start of operations. However, two persons per area should be employed before that to undergo training in Japan; and, vii) Furthermore, regarding maintenance, it is necessary to decide what to do regarding the division of outsourcing and self-production as well as the assignment of outsourcing. In order to address this at the start of test driving, it is necessary to proceed with preparations for each.

3-73 (2) Operation 1) Proposed Operation & Maintenance Scheme Given a proper setting of EWRC as mentioned above, EWRC should engage in the task of implementing the EWR. The proposed maintenance scheme, which is a general description of the most appropriate scheme for this project, is independent from the mode of implementation that would be finally selected, whether a full ODA, a two-tiered PPP, Net or Gross Cost, etc., thus, suitable to any funding scheme.

Taking into consideration all available information, site conditions, potential technical and financial capabilities of the future EWRC, it is suggested that the Concessionaire/Operator shall outsource the maintenance activities, preferably to a contractor closely linked or associated to the main OEM (Rolling Stock). The Concessionaire/Operator shall outsource to a Maintenance Contractor all the maintenance activities, including, among others, light & heavy maintenance, troubleshooting, and procurement of capital and consumable spare parts. The reason for choosing this scheme is that the implementing and supervisory agency EWRC would not have been established yet by the time the first line starts operation.

Likewise, due to the complexity and difficulty of the maintenance of the E&M systems, and the condition of having a Warranty period in effect right after the opening for commercial revenue, it is highly recommendable to subcontract (outsource) all maintenance activities to a well experienced and capable contractor, preferably to the rolling stock OEM, as it is one of the critical and more complex railway subsystems that should be properly maintained.

2) Scope of Work The outline of responsibilities for and between the owner/Authority (A), and the Concessionaire/Operator (O), if any, otherwise its responsibilities lay on EWRC, and the Maintenance Contractor (C) are shown in Table 3-39.

The basic concept of sharing of duties is that the Owner approves, the Operator monitors, and the Contactor implements the Maintenance Plan, which is prepared based on policies and guidelines for maintenance, and the OEM maintenance guidelines. They all should be bound by two contracts: a Concession Agreement between EWRC and the Operator (in case of Net Cost Scheme) or Service Agreement (in case of Gross Cost Scheme), and a Maintenance Contract between the Operator and Contractor for a period between 3 to 5 years.

3-74 Table 3-39 Tasks & Duties Matrix for Maintenance Responsibility Maintenance Tasks A O C

1 Formulate policies and guidelines in the maintenance of rolling stock, E&M subsystems, and civil works 

2 Approve policies and guidelines in the maintenance of rolling stock, E&M subsystems, and civil works 

3 Implement policies and guidelines in the maintenance of rolling stock, E&M subsystems, and civil works 

4 Inspect repair maintenance activities of the maintenance contractor 

5 Implement all maintenance activities related to rolling stock, E&M subsystems, and civil works 

6 Approval of special repairs and corrective maintenance activities 

7 Approval of large rehabilitation programs of capital equipment 

8 Monitor Maintenance progress implementation of all maintenance activities by using Computerized  Maintenance Management System (CMMS)

9 Monitors the performance of the contractor and oversee the proper implementation of Quality  Assurance/Quality Control of all maintenance / repair works.

10 Audit/approve status reports of the maintenance of the tools and equipment; 

11 Supervise and monitor the Contractor to plan and procure local and foreign spare parts, material, tools and  equipment;

12 Plan and procure local and foreign spare parts, material, tools and equipment; 

13 Supervise the control of inventories and the issuance of spare parts; 

14 Responsible for the control of inventories and the issuance of spare parts; 

15 Prepare annual materials/spare parts budget (local and imported) for the operation and maintenance of the  system;

16 Assist in managing the procurement process  Source: Study Team

The monitoring and supervision of the maintenance activities should be done using a Computerized Maintenance Management System (CMMS). Currently, the software MAXIMO© is one of the most widely used as CMMS. Capital equipment (rolling stock, subsystems, etc.) replacement due to end of life cycle or new acquisition due to capacity expansion is the responsibility of the Owner or Concessionaire depending of the type of contract, if any. Accordingly, all parties (the Owner, Operator, and Maintenance Contractor) should adopt the concept of fully integrated teams.

The following measures should be taken in consideration to avoid the issues seen in other railway systems; i) It is important that the Owner/Operator be able to have some hands-on control over the maintenance process in order to maintain the growth of the capacity building of the in- workforce at all levels, especially the technician level. ii) Although in the beginning, all works should be assigned to the Maintenance Contractor, eventually, EWRC would desire to have more control and expertise through Capacity Building programs over the years in order to reach a level where the what and when are controlled by the Owner/Operator.

3-75 iii) Approved training programs should be carried out periodically to the benefit of the EWRC’s in-house technical staff in all related activities of the O&M of the system. iv) Eventually, EWRC should be able to take more responsibilities, control, and risks in time for the implementation of new AGT railway lines (extension) that will increase the network in Manila Metro, and also in time when the Concession Agreement for the EWR expires, and EWRC would have to take control.

3) Organization Structure The Operator and the Maintenance Contractor’s objective in selecting and developing the organizational structure is to ensure that the organization will provide clear lines of formal communication and control, and effective informal communications (networking). The organization must also function smoothly both internally and in its relationship with its counterpart (EWRC/Contractor) and the various Agencies that will be involved directly or indirectly with the project. It will clearly identify the functional requirements related to the management of this contract. It will provide the correct balance of management and operational staff, and the optimum numbers, categories and disciplines of staff to ensure the technical and managerial success of the maintenance activities for EWR.

Accordingly, the Operator/Maintenance Contractor should take the guiding principle in its organizational structure and adopt the concept of fully integrated teams. The entire organization could be subdivided into a Management/Administration Group and a Site Maintenance Group. The recommended functional structures are shown in the Figure 3-34 for Operator/Supervisory Agency and Figure 3-35 for Maintenance Contractor.

3-76 Figure 3-34 Organization Chart of Operator / Supervisory Agency

Source: Study Team

Figure 3-35 Organization Chart of Maintenance Contractor

SUPERVISORY BOARD

PROJECT DIRECTOR

PROCUREMENT ACCOUNTING & AUDIT Maintenance

Materials Q.A. & Safety

Rolling Stock Dept. Electronic Dept. Infrastructure Dept.

Heavy Maint. Light Maint. Laboratory Power Bldg. Track Sect.

AFCS Sect. Signaling & Telecom Janitorial

Source: Study Team

3-77 Chapter 4 Evaluation of Environmental and Social Impacts

4.1 Current Analysis of Environmental and Social Aspects

4.1.1 Current Conditions of Project Areas All road traffic in the Manila metropolitan area suffers from chronic traffic congestion, and the large number of traffic accidents, urban environmental pollution and other issues are becoming serious social problems. There is concern that future increased automobile traffic and slow infrastructure improvement will lead to further traffic congestion and oversaturation of train stations will have a severe impact on economic activities, and spurring worsening urban pollution. In addition, for railway transportation, the Manila metropolitan area has the LRT Line 1 and the MRT Line 3 running north-south, and the LRT Line 2 running east-west, however the east-west railway lines are small and need to be built up. This project is a plan for the introduction of an approximately 18km east-west running railway transportation system running from the Manila City area located in the center of the metropolitan area, through Mandaluyong City and Ortigas CBD to Pasig City, Cainta City and Taytay City in the east. Ortigas CBD is located in the center of the study area, and is residential area to the west with continued new residential area development to the east in Cainta City and Taytay City.

4.1.2 Current Environmental Conditions in the Philippines (1) Topography and Geology The Guadalupe Plateau is a volcanic plateau extension of the Sierra Madre Mountains located in the northern part of the island of Luzon and divides the Manila metropolitan area through the center in the north-south direction, to the east lies the lake and the surrounding area is lowlands. There is an alluvial plain in the basin of the Marikina River which flows to the northwest of the lake, and with the on the west side of the plateau, makes for a delta-shaped alluvial plain. The Guadalupe Plateau is covered with the 3rd period Guadalupe stratum which has comparatively good ground conditions, however, the alluvial plain facing the lowlands on the east and western sides has weak foundation soil.

(2) Climate The Manila metropolitan area is a high temperature, high humidity tropical climate, and is ranked between a tropical monsoon climate (Am) and tropical savannah climate (Aw) according to the Köppen climate classification. The climate is divided into 2 seasons consisting of the dry season from January to April and the rainy season from May to December, with an average temperature of 26.7°C and very little temperature variation throughout the year. The average high temperature for April is 33.5 degrees, which is the highest temperature of the year, and the average low temperature for January is 23.5 degrees. Annual rainfall is 2,069 mm, with the majority of the rainfall from June to October (approximately 70% of the annual rainfall), and strong rainstorms and squalls are common. In addition, typhoons tend to occur from June to September, and the Manila metropolitan area often suffers flood damage as a result of powerful typhoons. Urban sewerage facilities are insufficient in many areas within the Manila metropolitan area, so puddles and pools of water from everywhere throughout the city during rainfall which often worsens the already severe and regular traffic congestion.

4-1 Figure 4-1 Manila Temperatures

(℃) 35

30

25

20

15

10 Max. Temp. Min. Temp. 5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 (Month)

Source: World Meteorological Organization and Japan National Tourist Organization

Figure 4-2 Manila Rainfall

(mm) 450 400 350 Rainfall 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112 (Month)

Source: World Meteorological Organization and Japan National Tourist Organization

(3) Air Pollution Periodic air quality monitoring is carried out at in the Manila metropolitan area and at other regional offices under the management of the Environmental Management Bureau for the purpose of monitoring and improving air quality. The results of air quality monitoring in the Manila metropolitan area are shown in Table 4-1, and in nearly all of the areas of this study the Total Suspended Particulate (TSP) exceed the environmental standards value (average of 90 μg/N cm per year) as of 2008. The Department of Environment and Natural Resources has implemented countermeasures targeting fixed sources of pollution and mobile sources of pollution (automobiles). For the former, the air pollution generators are required to obtain operation permits,

4-2 and for the latter, the Euro-2 standard of the EU (European Union) has been applied as an exhaust gas standard for new vehicles since 2008, and exhaust gas inspections are also carried out.

Table 4-1 Total Suspended Particulate (TSP) Concentration in the Manila Metropolitan Area Unit: μg/Ncm Monitoring Station 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 EDSA NPO 165 163 138 125 144 EDSA East Avenue 170 129 104 102 107 Ateneo 105 87 72 65 74 Valenzuela 206 152 157 146 156 Makati City 211 183 153 146 134 Pasig 109 106 90 92 85 Mandaluyong 133 124 121 134 125 Manila 134 138 111 110 138 Pasay 135 134 159 140 ― Marikina ― ― ― ― 138 EDSA MRT 236 323 316 257 282 Average 160 154 142 132 138 Source: Compendium of Basic Statistics for Operations and Management (Second Edition) (2000-2008), DENR (2011)

(4) Water Pollution The major rivers which flow through the Manila metropolitan area are subject to continued water pollution by heavy metals, toxic substances, agricultural chemicals and other contaminants contained in effluent, household drainage and agricultural drainage. In addition, while it has been verified that there is an ample supply of , excessive consumption and careless management have resulted in a variety of problems including water pollution of bodies of water and , accumulation of salt and dropping groundwater levels. The results of monitoring of the rivers in the areas around the study area are shown in Table 4-2 and Table 4- 3, with none of the rivers meeting the 2008 environmental standards. The extremely poor state of maintenance and improvement of sewerage is the major cause of water pollution, with only approximately 11% of the residents in the Manila metropolitan area directly or indirectly making use of sewer systems.

4-3 Table 4-2 Dissolved Oxygen (DO) Amount Trends in Major Rivers in the Manila Metropolitan Area DO Annual Average (mg/L) Compliance with Body of Water Type 2003 2006 2008 Environmental Outlet Standards (2008) Marikina River C 3.1 2.2 2.6 × Pasig River San Juan River C 2.4 1.1 1.9 × Pasig River Paranaque River C 2.5 1.6 1.6 × Manila Bay Pasig River C 3.1 2.5 3.2 × Manila Bay Note: Dissolved Oxygen (DO) environmental standards are a minimum of 5.0 mg/L or greater for types AA through C and a minimum of 3.0 mg/L for type D. Source: Compendium of Basic Statistics for Operations and Management (Second Edition) (2000-2008), DENR (2011)

Table 4-3 Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) Trends in Major Rivers in the Manila Metropolitan Area BOD Annual Average Compliance with Body of Water Type (mg/L) Environmental Outlet 2003 2006 2008 Standards (2008) Marikina River C 18.2 15.0 18.2 × Pasig River San Juan River C 54.8 33.4 44.2 × Pasig River Paranaque River C 42.0 41.0 38.2 × Manila Bay Pasig River C 10.7 13.6 20.5 × Manila Bay Note: Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) environmental standards are a maximum of 5.0 mg/L or less for types A and B, 7.0 mg/L or less for type C, and 10.0 mg/L or less for type D. Source: Compendium of Basic Statistics for Operations and Management (Second Edition) (2000-2008), DENR (2011)

(5) Soil Pollution According to the Integrated Persistent Organic Pollutants Management Project implemented by the World Bank, serious soil pollution has been found in the Philippines as a result of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) waste and persistent organic pollutant (POP) type agricultural chemicals. Large quantities of PCBs have been identified in the Manila metropolitan area in particular. However, studies and management by the Philippines have been slow due to lack of both experience and financial resources.

(6) Waste Household waste in the Philippines is rising rapidly with the increasing population and economic development, and is becoming a serious problem for the Manila metropolitan area in particular. In 2001, the Ecological Solid Waste Management ACT was enacted, establishing a framework for waste management within the Philippines, including management, transportation, processing, etc. of standard waste, however lack of financial resources and other causes have resulted in delays in the construction of processing plants, and current implementation is insufficient.

4-4 In addition, waste production amounts and recycling statistics are not systematically managed, so information is only able to be obtained for specific regions and a limited number of cities. In the 2001 World Bank study, the waste generation per individual in the Manila metropolitan area was estimated to be 0.71 kg / day. As shown in Table 4-4, the waste production for the Manila metropolitan area in 2010 was 3.4 million tons / year, with an estimated average increase of approximately 3.3% per year since 2007.

Table 4-4 Estimated Waste Production Unit: Million tons/year National Percentage Annual Average Area 2007 2010 (2010) Increase Rate (%) Manila metropolitan area 2.86 3.14 22.97 3.26 Entire country 12.15 13.67 100.00 4.17 Source: Prepared based on the National State of the Brown Environment Report (2005-2007), EMB (2009)

(7) Protected Areas/Ecosystems The Philippines has established protected area reserves since the time of its rule by the in 1910 in order to combat deforestation, however the first practical protected area was the Rizal National Park in 1934. Thereafter, as one of the major points of the Philippine Strategy for Sustainable Development enacted in 1990, The National Integrated Protected Areas System was established as a republic law in 1992. After the establishment of this law, all of the national parks, natural protected areas, mangrove protected areas, natural and historical remains, protected or managed scenic spots, primeval forest and other areas designated and protected up until then were officially designated as protected areas, with over 200 such areas designated as of the present. There are no designated protected areas as specified by the law within the area of this project, with the applicable areas instead being made up of areas of progressing commercial, business and residential development, and no primeval forest, tropical forests, or other precious plants, animals or ecosystems were reported as of the time of the survey.

4.1.3 Future Predictions (If Project is NOT Implemented) This project is a plan to connect the 5 cities of Manila City, Mandaluyong City, Pasig City, Cainta City and Taytay City in the Manila metropolitan area by a railway transportation system. New residential development is progressing in Taytay City in the eastern area of the project area, and it is expected that in the future this will become a "bed town" for Ortigas CBD, which is located in the approximate center of the planned route. However, at present the main access for connection between Taytay City and Ortigas CBD is the arterial road running from National Road to Ortigas Avenue, which suffers from chronic traffic congestion, interfering with economic activities. In addition, the road width on the west side of the Ortigas CBD, particularly MRT3 and LRT2, is narrow, resulting in frequent traffic congestion. If this project is not implemented, the means of transportation for the relevant area will remain the same as currently, consisting of large buses, taxis, shared-taxis, jeepneys, and other automobiles, and it can be

4-5 expected that the traffic congestion will become even more severe with an increase in automobile numbers as a result of future residential development. Future increases in automobile traffic can be expected to contribute to worsening air pollution as a result of increase exhaust gas production, and a significant worsening of the urban environment. This project will not only contribute to improvements in the convenience of commuting for work and school from the eastern area of the Manila metropolitan area to the CBD, smoother short trips centering around the Mandaluyong area, and increased flow of people through connection with LRT2 and MRT3, but also to improvement of the urban environment.

4-6 4.2 Effects of Environmental Improvement Resulting from Project Implementation

Calculations were made on projected environmental improvement effects (CO 2 reduction) if a medium capacity transport system (AGT) is constructed.

4.2.1 Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Global warming assessments were made by calculating the difference between the carbon dioxide emissions that would be reduced by a shift from automobiles to AGT usage if an AGT is introduced, and the carbon dioxide generated through power production for the power to be consumed by running the AGT system.

(1) Reduction of Automobile Traffic Assuming the shift of AGT users from public transportation on roads such as buses and jeepneys to AGT, road traffic would be reduced by the portion of users changing means of transportation. The potential reductions in road traffic are calculated from demand prediction results and shown in Table 4-5.

Table 4-5 Road Traffic Reduction Transition Average Average Travel Road Traffic Mode of Traffic Number of Year Distance Reduction Transportation Amount Passengers (km) (Vehicles/km/day) (People) (People/Vehicle) 2023 224,841 10.1 223,581 2030 333,893 10.3 336,338 Jeepney 10.2 2040 421,604 9.8 404,521 2053 444,070 9.8 427,622 2023 5,793 10.1 1,665 2030 16,360 10.3 4,765 Bus 35.3 2040 43,165 9.8 11,974 2053 41,607 9.8 11,584 Source: Study Team

(2) Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions as a Result of Transition from automobile Traffic Reduction of carbon dioxide emissions as a result of transition from automobile traffic is calculated using the following formula.

ERY ＝ Σ (VK J×EF M)

ER Y : Annual carbon dioxide reduced emissions

VK J : Reduction of automobiles by vehicle type (vehicles/km/year)

EF M : Carbon dioxide emission source units (g/km)

4-7 Table 4-6 Carbon Dioxide Emission Source Units

Mode of Transportation Source units (g CO 2/km) Jeepney (Gasoline) 380 Bus (Gasoline) 860 Source: CO2 Emissions from the Sector in the Philippines: Estimates and Policy Implications, Herbert Fabian, 2009

Table 4-7 Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions as a Result of Transition from Automobile Traffic Reduction (t/y) Year Jeepney Bus Total 2023 31,011 523 31,534 2030 46,650 1,496 48,146 2040 50,107 3,759 53,866 2053 59,371 3,630 63,001 Source: Study Team

(3) Carbon Dioxide Emissions Resulting from AGT Operation Carbon dioxide emissions resulting from AGT operation are estimated using the following formula.

EGY = EC E × EF E EG : Annual carbon dioxide emissions (t-CO2/y) EC : Annual power consumption (MWh/y) EF : Carbon dioxide emission source units (=0.4948 t-CO2/MWh) *

*Combined margin emission coefficient (CM) for the Philippines from the IGES grid coefficient table

Table 4-8 Carbon Dioxide Emissions Resulting from AGT Operation Annual Power Emissions Year Consumption (t-CO 2/y) (MWh/y) 2023 58,266 28,830 2030 78,984 39,081 2040 87,041 43,068 2053 88,193 43,638 Source: Study Team

4-8 (4) Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Resulting from AGT Project Carbon dioxide emission reduction resulting from the implementation of the AGT project are shown in Table 4-9. It is expected that the implementation of the AGT project can contribute to the reduction of greenhouse

gases with a CO 2 reduction of 2,704 t when the AGT opens in 2023, and an estimated increased reduction in the future as a result of increased demands (increased transition from automobiles to AGT usage).

Table 4-9 Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Resulting from AGT Project Reduction of carbon dioxide emissions as a Carbon dioxide emissions Reduction of carbon Year result of transition from resulting from AGT dioxide automobile traffic operation (t-CO 2/y) (t-CO 2/y) (t-CO 2/y) 2023 31,534 28,830 2,704 2030 48,146 39,081 9,065 2040 53,866 43,068 10,798 2053 63,001 43,638 19,363 Source: Study Team

4.2.2 Applicability of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) The CDM/JI Project Study for supporting the implementation of feasibility studies (FS) of projects that could be applicable as CDM and Joint Implementation (JI) has been carried out at the Ministry of the Environment since 1999, however until 2013 no projects related to new traffic systems, such as railway systems, have been implemented. In the transportation field, in items targeting improvements of the vehicles themselves have been implemented, such as the improvement of fuel consumption through the introduction of digital tachographs in vehicles, attachment of idling stop equipment on route buses, and replacement of automobile with new engines. The period which can be calculated for CDM reduction effects (the credit period) is a maximum of 10 years, and it can be thought that one of the reasons that a railway system project is not implemented is its comparatively high costs compared to other fields and issues with profitability.

The CO 2 reduction estimates for this project are 2,704 tons in 2023, 9,065 tons in 2030, 10,798 tons in 2040, and 19,363 tons in 2053. It is thought that it would be difficult to apply CDM due to the sluggishness of emissions trading prices and excessive emissions in recent years, as well as the fact that emission amounts will continue to increase for a long period of time after the project implementation, making for unsure profitability and reliability.

4-9 4.3 Effects on Environmental and Social Aspects Resulting from Project Implementation 4.3.1 Identification of Environmental and Social Effects The identification of items which are supposed to have effects on environmental and societal aspects as a result of the implementation of this project was carried out based on JICA's Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations environmental checklist table (railways), and the results of this identification are shown in Table 4-10.

Table 4-10 JICA's Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations Environmental Checklist (Railways) Classification

Concrete environmental social Environment Yes:Y Main Matters to be Checked consideration (Reasons why of Yes/No, item No:N basis, relief measures, etc.)

(1) EIA (a) Have the environmental assessment (a)N (a)(b)(c)(d) The EIS (Environmental Impact and evaluation reports (EIA report) been (b)N Statements) must be prepared during a future environme completed? (c)N stage where project plan details are reviewed. In ntal (b) Is the EIA report approved by the (d)N addition, because the project site is located in the approval interested-state governments? Laguna Lake basin, it is necessary to apply for (c) Is approval of the EIA report etc. project implementation and receive authorization accompanied by collateral conditions? Are from the Laguna Lake Development Authority the conditions fulfilled when there are the (LLDA). collateral conditions? (d) When required in addition to the above,

1 Approval and Explanation has permission and approval about the environment been obtained from the local competent authorities? (2) (a) Was appropriate explanation to the local (a)N (a) A project overview has been explained to the Explanatio stakeholders including information (b)N cities along the route and their approval obtained, n to local disclosure given, and an understanding however it is necessary to provide explanations to stakeholde about the contents and impacts of the other local stakeholders and relevant parties and rs project obtained? obtained their support going forward. In addition, (b) Were the comments from residents etc. it is also necessary to provide explanations and reflected in the contents of the project? obtain consent regarding environmental impact going forward as well. (b) At present, explanatory meetings have not yet been implemented for local residents. If is necessary to hold explanatory meetings for residents and reflect their comments in the project design in future detailed study stages. (3) (a) Were multiple alternatives of the project (a)Y (a)Alternative plans have been considered and Examinati plan examined (including items related to environmental impact taken into consideration for on of the environment and society)? route proposals. alternative s (1) Water (a) Does the water quality of a downstream (a)N (a) The planned route is mostly elevated with one 2 Pollution Measures quality water area deteriorate by the soil runoff (b)N section in the city centre underground, so it is from topsoil outcrops, such as the bank and expected there will be almost not runoff in the the cut earth? exposed topsoil sections. However, as the project (b) Is the drainage from a station or a will include foundation and underground tunnel vehicle base consistent with the effluent construction, it is planned to take all possible care standard of interested states, etc.? Also, are during the construction period to minimize soil water areas, which are not consistent with runoff as much as possible and not have a the environmental standards of interested negative effect on water quality downstream. states, generated? (b) Sufficient consideration is required for

4-10 processing of effluent from stations, contaminated water from depots and unneeded oil from maintenance inspections, and caution will be taken to prevent leaks from waste storage vehicles. In addition, the environmental standards will be met by preparing waste water facilities of the same standard as shown in the existing LRT1 and 2, and MRT 3 line stations and depots. (2) Waste (a) Is the waste substance from the station (a)Y (a)Expected wastes from stations include cans, substances or the vehicle base processed and disposed bottles, bottles, magazines, tickets, etc., of appropriately according to the regulations and waste oil, consumable parts, etc. from depots of interested states? and will be appropriately processed according to waste processing regulations. In addition, was processing and disposal will be carried out using the same processes as at the existing stations and depots on the existing LRT1, 2 and MRT3 lines. (3) Noise (a) Is the noise and vibration by the railroad (a)Y (a) Countermeasures, such as installation of and consistent with the standards of interested sound barriers, will be put in place in accordance vibration states, etc.? with the country's noise and vibration standards during the construction period. It will be necessary to monitor noise and vibration after operation commencement, and make periodic reports to relevant organizations. (4) (a) Is there is a possibility that subsidence of (a)Y (a) Precautions will be taken against subsidence, Subsidence ground may arise, by a lot of ground-water such as excavation and pumping of groundwater, of ground pumping (especially underground)? as the project involves construction of tunnel sections and construction near rivers. (1) (a) Is the site located in a protected area (a)N (a) There are no protected areas within the site. Protected provided for in law, international treaties, region etc. of interested states? Does the project affect the protected area? (2) (a) Does the site include primeval forests, (a)N (a)(b)(c)(d)(e)(f) are not present within the Ecosystem tropical natural forests, and ecologically (b)N project site. important habitats (coral reef, mangrove (c)N coast, mudflat, etc.)? (d)N (b) Does the site include the habitat of rare (e)N species for which protection is needed by (f)N the law, international treaties, etc. of interested states? 3 Natural Environment (c) When concerned about the serious influence on the ecosystem, are measures which reduce the influence on the ecosystem taken? (d) Are the measures which prevent the blockage of the migration pathways of wildlife and livestock, the division of wildlife habitat, traffic accidents between vehicles and animals, etc. taken? (e) Is deforestation, poaching, desertification, drying of marshland, etc. associated with development produced by the building of the railroad? Is there any possibility that the ecosystem may be disturbed by introduction of alien species (they traditionally do not inhabit the area), disease and pest insects, etc.? Are measures to these prepared? (f) When building a railroad in an undeveloped area, is the natural environment spoiled greatly in connection

4-11 with new community development? (3) (a) Does new construction of structures, such (a)Y (a)The plan will include drainage which has Hydromet as a change of geographical feature and sufficient capacity to ensure no negative effects eor , have an adverse effect on the flow of on surface or ground water from waste water a surface water and ground water? from engineering works and rail sections (elevated sections, tunnels), stations or depots during periods of heavy rain during the rainy season. (4) (a) Is there any geological area where earth- (a)Y (a) Countermeasures will be planned to ensure no Geographi and-sand collapse and landslide are likely (b)Y slope failures or landslides occur in tunnel cal feature produced on the route? When bad, are (c)Y sections or locations close to rivers. and appropriate measures taken into (b) Sufficient consideration will be made in plans geology consideration by the construction method to prevent slope failure and landslides in etc.? foundation and . (b) Are earth-and-sand collapse and the (c) Plans will be drawn up to protect against landslide produced by such engineering- erosion in soil dumps for tunnel construction. works as banking, earth-cutting, etc.? Are the appropriate measures for preventing earth-and-sand collapse and landslide taken into consideration? (c) Is soil runoff from the bank, earth- cutting, soil disposal area, and the earth- and-sand extraction place produced? Are the appropriate measures for preventing sediment discharge taken? (1) (a) Is involuntary resident transfer produced (a)Y (a) At present, the project is still in the pre-F/S Resident in connection with the project execution? (b)Y stage, and it is not yet clear if there will be any move When produced are efforts made to (c)Y need for any involuntary relocation of residents. minimize the influence of a transfer? (d)Y The plan is designed to minimize the need for (b) Is appropriate explanation about the (e)Y land acquisition and resident relocation as much measures against compensation/ life (f)Y as possible by using the roadway as installation reconstruction given before a transfer to the (g)Y space, however narrow road areas, curves, and residents who are to be transferred? (h)Y other features may have effects on these (c) Is the investigation for the resident (i)Y requirements. transfer made and is a transfer plan (j)Y (b) It is necessary to hold hearings on relocation including recovery of the life base after and compensation before any such relocation is compensation by the current replacement carried out for the residents to be relocated in

4 Social Environment cost and the transfer established? accordance with the laws of the Philippines. (d) Is payment of compensation made (c)(d)(e) It is necessary to create a relocation before a transfer? implementation plan which includes recovery of (e) Is the compensation plan in written life infrastructure after relocation in accordance form? with the laws of the Philippines. Compensation (f) Was the appropriate consideration for will be paid in accordance with this plan. socially vulnerable groups, such as women, (f) Special consideration will be given to women, children, elderly men, the poor, ethnic children, the elderly, the poor, ethnic minorities, minorities, indigenous people, scheduled indigenous peoples and other socially vulnerable especially among residents to be groups in accordance with the laws of the transferred? Philippines. (g) Can an agreement before a transfer be (g) In the construction of LRT1 and 2 and MRT3, reached with residents to be transferred? the consent of the residents to be relocated was (h) Is a system for carrying out a resident obtained before relocation, so it is though that the transfer appropriately prepared? Are same will likely be possible. sufficient competency and budget measures (h)(i) The resident relocation procedures will taken? include implementation systems and budget (i) Is monitoring of the influence by a measures and monitoring is planned. transfer planned? (j) A mechanism will be constructed for (j) Is a structure for handling complaints processing complaints regarding resident built? relocation.

4-12 (2) Life (a) When a railroad is installed by new (a)Y (a) Transfer to the proposed transportation system and development, does it have influence on the (b)N by bus is assumed, however it is thought that the livelihood existing means of transportation or the life (c)N effect can be minimized by reorganizing routes. It of the residents engaged in it? Also, are (d)N is thought that share taxis and jeepneys can there large changes of land use livelihood (e)N function as feeder transportation to the proposed means, unemployment, etc. produced? Does (f)Y system, so no loss of employment is expected. In the plan consider relief of these influences? addition, the implementation of the project will (b) Are there any adverse effects on increase employment activities with a need for residents by the project? When required, construction personnel during the construction what measures are considered to mitigate period, and new staffing opportunities at the the impact? railway operating company and commercial (c) Is there any danger of illness generated businesses around the stations, etc. after (including infection, such as HIV) by a commencement of operation. population influx from other areas? Is (b) The project is of great benefit to the public consideration of suitable public health and will increase convenience for residents and sanitation taken if needed? not cause any negative effects. (d) Is there an adverse effect in the road (c) The area of the project is already an area with traffic of surrounding areas by the project development plans for increased traffic, so further (the increase in traffic congestion, traffic promotion of population fluidity is not likely to accidents, etc.)? pose further risk of diseases. (e) Does an obstacle arise in residents' (d) There will be no negative effect on migration by the rail line? surrounding road traffic. The introduction of the (f) Is sunshine prevention and radio railway transportation system is expected to result disturbance produced by railroad structures in transitions from automobile traffic, so a (bridge etc.)? lessening of road traffic congestion can be expected. (e) Intersections with roads will be either elevated or tunnel sections, so the area will not be divided by the railway tracks and should in no way impede the movement of residents. (f) Sun shading: Will occur. Elevated structures will affect the amount of effective sunlight time. However, the relevant site has many areas where the sunlight is actually overly intense throughout the year, so shading is not likely to cause any problems. Radio interference: Will occur. There may be areas where the railway electrical system causes radio interference. In addition, the locations which will suffer from said interference cannot be identified during initial environmental study stages, so it is necessary to carry out further studies at the time of more detailed planning. (3) (a) Is there any possibility of damaging (a)N (a) There are no archaeological, historical, Cultural valuable archaeological, historical, cultural cultural, religiously significant remains, etc. heritage or religious heritage or sites by the project? within the proposed route of this project. Also, are the measures defined in the municipal law of interested states taken into consideration? (4) View (a) When the scenery which should be (a)Y (a) There is no scenery which requires any considered especially exists, is it affected particular consideration along the proposed route adversely? Are required measures taken of the project. However, it is possible that there when influential? could be a negative effect on urban views while the vehicles are travelling along the elevated sections of the line, so it is necessary for the structures, station building designs, etc. to be in harmony with the surrounding scenery. (5) Ethnic (a) Is consideration which reduces the (a)N (a)(b) There are no ethnic minorities or minority, impact on the culture and the lifestyle of (b)N indigenous residents within the proposed route. indigenous ethnic minorities and indigenous people

4-13 people taken? (b) Are various rights about the land and resources of ethnic minorities and indigenous people respected? (6) Labor (a) Are the laws on the labor environment of (a)Y (a) This project is a public transportation project, environment the interested states which should be (b)Y and the project will adhere to the laws of the observed in the project protected? (c)Y country by following the examples of the work (b) Are the measures of the safety (d)Y environments of the existing railways, buses and consideration in the hardware aspect to other transportation systems. project authorized personnel, such as (b) The country already features an operating installation of the safety equipment railway system, so safety considerations such as concerning industrial accident prevention installation of safety equipment for preventing and management of harmful substances industrial accidents, management of hazardous taken? substances, etc., and other tangible safety (c) Are the measures in the software aspect considerations for project participants are already to project related personnel, such as in place. implementation of safety and health plan (c) As stated above, the country already features and safety training to workers (including an operating railway system, so health and safety traffic safety and public health sanitation) plan enactment, implementation of safety training planned and carried out? for workers, and other intangible measures for (d) Are the appropriate measures taken so project participants are already planned or that the security staff related to the project implemented. may not infringe on the safety of project (d) It is necessary to implement thorough training related personnel and local residents? for project security personnel to ensure that they do not in any way endanger the safety of project participants or local residents. (1) Influence (a) Are the relief measures for (a)Y (a) Measures will be implemented to alleviate under contamination during construction (noise, (b)N pollution during construction. Measures to construction vibration, muddy water, dust, exhaust gas, (c)Y prevent and alleviate environmental pollution will waste substance, etc.) prepared? (d)Y be sufficiently studied when enacting a (b) Is the natural environment (ecosystem) construction plan. affected adversely by construction? Are (b) As the construction is occurring within an relief measures to reduce impacts prepared? urban area, there is expected to be almost no (c) Is the social environment affected negative effect on any ecosystems. adversely by construction? Are relief (c)(d) Because the main installation space is road, measures to reduce impacts prepared? there are concerns that traffic restrictions, etc. (d) Is road traffic congestion generated by during the construction period may result in construction, and are relief measures to traffic congestion. A plan for transport of reduce impacts prepared? materials and equipment, installation construction, etc. will be established before 5 Others commencement of construction, and detour signs, etc. will be used to minimize the impact on traffic. (2) (a) Is the business operator's monitoring (a)Y (a)(b)(c)(d) For environmental monitoring, laws Monitoring planned and carried out to the items which (b)Y are already in place from existing railway can be subject to the influence among the (c)Y constructions, and this product must plan and be above-mentioned environment items? (d)Y implemented with consideration of and learning (b) Are the items of the plan concerned, from past experiences and projects. methods, frequency, etc. judged to be appropriates? (c) Is the business operator's monitoring system (organization, staffs, equipment, budgets, etc. and those continuity) established? (d) Are the methods, frequency, etc. of the report from the business operator to competent authorities etc. specified?

4-14 (1) (a) If necessary, additional items can be (a)Y (a) The proposed route is mainly through urban Reference evaluated by checking the appropriate (b)Y area, so no large scale deforestation, etc. will of other checklist relating to (when occur. environme accompanied by large-scale deforestation) (b) The proposed route will be elevated, and it ntal (b) If necessary, additional items can be will be necessary to reroute power transmission Important Matters 6 check-lists evaluated by checking the appropriate lines where they interfere with railway checklist relating to the distribution and constructions. (Relevant items from the Power transmission of electrical power (when Transmission and Distribution Lines checklist are accompanied by construction of distribution shown in Table 4-11.) and transmission of electrical power and distribution institution etc.). (2) Notes (a) If necessary, the effects of trans (a)N (a) The project aims to convert passengers and for boundary or global environmental issues cargo from automobile traffic, and so will environme shall also be checked (when the elements contribute to reduction of greenhouse gases. ntal concerning the problem of cross-border check-list processing of waste substances, acid rain, use ozone layer depletion, and global warming can be considered etc.). Note 1) Regarding the term “Country's Standards” mentioned in the above table, in the event that environmental standards in the country where the project is located diverge significantly from international standards, appropriate environmental considerations are required to be made. In cases where local environmental regulations are yet to be established in some areas, considerations should be made based on comparisons with appropriate standards of other countries (including Japan's experiences). Note 2) Environmental checklist provides general environmental items to be checked. It may be necessary to add or delete an item taking into account the characteristics of the project and the particular circumstances of the country and locality in which it is located. Source: Study Team

In JICA's Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations (railways) "6. Important Points (1) Refer to other environmental checklists", there are also relevant areas in "Power Transmission and Distribution Lines", so the related items were extracted and are presented in Table 4-11.

Table 4-11 JICA Guideline Checklist (Other Relevant Fields (Power Transmission and Distribution Lines Extracts)) cation Classifi Concrete environmental social consideration Environment Yes:Y Main Matters to be Checked (Reasons why of Yes/No, basis, relief item No:N measures, etc.) (4) (a) Is there any geological area where (a)N (a) In areas where power transmission line Geographical earth-and-sand collapse and landslide (b)Y switching construction is required, construction feature and are likely produced on the route of (c)Y methods will be planned to ensure that slope geology power transmission and distribution failures and landslides do not occur in areas prone line? When bad, are appropriate to such.

3 Natural Environment measures taken into consideration by (b)Sufficient consideration will be made in plans to the construction method etc.? prevent slope failures and landslides in foundation (b) Are earth-and-sand collapse and the and tunnel construction. landslide produced by such (c) Plans will be drawn up to protect against erosion engineering-works as banking, earth- in soil dumps for tunnel construction. cutting, etc.? Are the appropriate measures for preventing earth-and-sand collapse and landslide taken into consideration? (c) Is soil runoff from the bank, earth- cutting, soil disposal area, and the earth-and-sand extraction place produced? Are the appropriate measures for preventing sediment discharge taken? Source: Study Team

4-15 4.3.2 Comparative Investigation of Other Options with Smaller Effect on Environmental and Social Aspects In Option-1, 2 and 3 for the route plans under examination, this study recommended Option-2 based on population concentration, installation space, connection with existing lines and other factors. Here we will compare this with Option-1 and 3 based on environmental and social aspects.

(1) Comparative Investigation Route The routes subject to comparative investigation are as follows. ・Option-1: Sta Mesa-Boni Ave.-Ortigas CBD-Ortigas Ave.-Taytay ・Option-2 (Route recommended in this study): V. Mapa- Shaw Blvd-Ortigas CBD-Ortigas Ave.-Taytay ・Option-3: Gilmore-Ortigas Ave.-Taytay

(2) Comparative Investigation of Alternate Proposals Results of comparison with Option-1 and Option-3 on environmental and social aspects are shown in Table 4-12.

Figure 4-3 shows the locations of required land acquisition. The area of required land acquisition and category of building were simply investigated especially for impacted area by using aerial photo, and further detail investigation for the locations and areas of required land acquisition should be conducted considering the construction materials carry-in and storing site during the construction period.

Table 4-12 Comparison of Options Evaluation Index Option-1 Option-2 Option-3 Condition of land use Central: commercial and Central: commercial and Central: luxury residential business area, low to business area, low to area, leisure facility high-rise residential area high-rise residential area (slightly far from commercial and business Suburban: low to high- Suburban: low to high- area) rise residential area rise residential area Suburban: low to high-rise residential area Route length (km) 19.6 18.4 14.8 (underground section) (2.5) (2.2) (0.0) Condition of introducing Road in city is Road in city is Road in city is wide. space (road) comparatively narrow. comparatively narrow. Land acquisition 1,930 m 2 1,230 m 2 None Affected property (r equired 22 properties 15 properties None number of resettlement) Evaluation Required land acquisition Required land acquisition Required land acquisition and affected house are and affected house are and affected house are comparatively large. comparatively large. comparatively small. But Although this route will Although this route will this route has issues of highly contribute to the contribute to the demand and passenger’s reduction of traffic reduction of traffic convenience owing to the congestion and congestion and distance from city center. passenger’s convenience. passenger’s convenience. Source: Study Team

4-16 Figure 4-3 Locations of Required Land Acquisition

(l)

(k) (j) (h)

(g) (i) (m)

(f) (a) (e) (d) (b) (c)

Option -1(City area) Option -2(City area) Number of Number of Area Area Location affected Land use Location affected Land use () (m2) properties properties (a) 480 1 Factory/warehouse (i) 290 2 Mall/Station of MRT Line 3 (b) 20 1 Factory/warehouse (j) 290 5 Medium-rise residence (c) 180 3 Medium-rise residence (k) 230 3 Medium-rise residence (d) 400 2 Medium-rise residence (l) 420 5 Low-rise residence (e) 670 6 Low-rise residence Total 1230 15 (f) 20 2 Low-rise residence Option -3(City area) Number of (g) 80 6 Low-rise residence Area Location affected Land use (m2) (h) 80 1 Low-rise residence properties Total 1930 22 ― 0 0 ― Option -1,2 and 3(Suburb) Number of Area Location affected Land use (m2) properties (m) 800 3 Factory/Office Source: Study Team

4.3.3 Important Points for Environmental Aspects Related to Implementation of a Railway System Project in the Manila Metropolitan Area There are 3 particular points to be given attention in terms of environmental and social aspects when implementing a railway system project in the Manila metropolitan area which are (1) land acquisition/resident relocation, (2) construction in the Laguna Lake basin, and (3) effects on drainage canals.

(1) Land Acquisition / Resident Relocation The plan is designed to minimize the need for land acquisition and resident relocation as much as possible by using the AGT installation space as roadway, however narrow road areas, curves, and other features may have effects on these requirements. Quickly implementing in accordance with Philippines land acquisition and resident relocation procedures will contribute to shortening construction periods and reducing construction costs. It is desirable to take advantage of experience in constructing LRT1, LRT2 and MRT3 and coordinate accordingly.

4-17 (2) Construction in the Laguna Lake Basin Because this project site is approximately 18 km long from Manila City to Taytay City and located in the Laguna Lake basin, it is necessary to apply for project implementation and receive authorization from the Laguna Lake Development Authority (LLDA).

(3) Effects on Drainage Canals The Manila metropolitan area has drainage canals in place as an anti-flood measure, so it is necessary to exercise caution when implementing this project to ensure there is no effect on these drainage canals.

4-18 4.4 Host Country Environmental and Social Consideration Related Regulations 4.4.1 Environmental Administration Organizations The Philippines government environmental organization is the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), which was established in June 1987 in accordance with government ordinance 192. The organizations main purposes are the management and supervision of the study, development, usage and protection of the country's natural resources. In addition, the Environmental Management Bureau (EMB), which is an organization which exists inside the DENR, plays a central role in environmental regulation in addition to implementing environmental assessment systems, etc. An organization chart of the DENR is shown in Figure 4-4 and of the EMB in Figure 4-5.

Figure 4-4 ENR Organization Chart

National国家地理資源 Mapping and Resource Information Authority情報庁 Related Organizations 関連組織 Laguna Lake Undersecretary事務次官 Developmentラグナ湖開発庁 Authority

Land Registration 土地登録庁Authority

フィリピン鉱業Philippine Development 開発会社Corporation

Natural天然資源 Resources Development Main Divisions 基幹部局 開発会社Corporation

Ecosystems Research Regional Environment 生態系調査 Forest Management Protected保護区・ Areas and Land Management 地方環境・天然 Environmental Mines and Geosciences and Development and Natural Resources 森林管理局 土地管理局 Management環境管理局 Bureau 鉱物・地球科学局Bureau ・開発局Bureau Bureau Wildlife野生生物局 Bureau Bureau 資源局Office

Provincial Environment Regional Regional Mines and 州環境・天然 環境管理局Environmental 鉱物・地球科学局 and Natural Resources Geosciences Bureaus 資源局Offices Management地方局 Bureaus 地方局

City市環境・天然 Environment and Natural Resources 資源局Offices Source: DENR

Figure 4-5 EMB Organization Chart

Environmental環境管理局長 Management Bureau Director

Environmental Management環境管理局副局長 Bureau Assistant Director

National Solid Waste 国家固形廃棄物管理 Pollution公害裁定委員会 Adjudication Board Management委員会事務局 Committee Office 事務局

Environmental Impact 環境影響評価 Environmental Standards Research and Environmental Education Admin and Finance Assessment and Management Legal Division 環境基準課 調査開発課and 環境教育・情報課 Information Division 総務・財務課Division 法制度課 ・管理課Division Division Development Division

Environmental 環境管理局－地方局Management Bureau – Regional Bureaus

Source: EMB

4-19 4.4.2 Environmental and Social Consideration Related Regulations Major environmental and social consideration related regulations in the Philippines are shown in Table 4-13.

Table 4-13 Major Environmental and Social Consideration Related Regulations in the Philippines Year of Regulation Regulation name/Regulation details issue Basic Policy Presidential Decree No. 1152 1977 Philippine Environmental Code Department of Environment and Natural Resources Executive Order No. 192 1987 Reorganization Conservation/Biodiversity/Forestry Presidential Decree No. 705 1975 Revised Forestry Code Presidential Decree No. 1067 1976 Water Code Republic Act No. 7586 1992 The National Integrated Protected Areas System Act Republic Act No. 9147 2001 Wildlife Resources Conservation and Protection Act Pollution Related Toxic Substances and Hazardous and Nuclear Republic Act No. 6969 1990 Wastes Control Act Republic Act No. 8749 1999 Clean Air Act Republic Act No. 9003 2001 Ecological Solid Waste Management Act Republic Act No. 9275 2004 Clean Water Act /Global Warming Republic Act No. 9267 2006 Biofuels Act Republic Act No. 9513 2008 Renewable Energy Act Republic Act No. 9729 2009 Climate Change Act Environmental Assessment Establishing an Environmental Impact Statement Presidential Decree No. 1586 1978 System Department of Environment and Natural Implementing Rules and Regulations (IRR) for the Resources Administrative Order No. 2003- 2003 Philippine Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) 30 System Land Acquisition/Resident Relocation Establishing A Uniform Basis for Determining Just Compensation and the Amount of Deposit for Presidential Decree No. 1533 1978 Immediate Possession of the Property Involved in Proceedings Republic Act No. 7279 1992 Urban Development and Housing Act An Act to Facilitate the Acquisition of Right-of- Republic Act No. 8974 2000 Way, Site or Location for National Government Infrastructure Projects and for Other Purposes

4-20 Department of Public Works and Highways Guidelines for Acquisition of Land for DPWG 2003 Department Order 5 Projects Native Peoples Republic Act No. 8371 1997 Indigenous People Rights Act Environmental Standards Department of Environment and Natural Fresh water environmental standards, seawater Resources Administrative Order No. 1990- 1990 environmental standards 34 Department of Environment and Natural Effluent standards (protected bodies of water, Resources Administrative Order No. 1990- 1990 standard bodies of water) 35 Department of Environment and Natural Resources Administrative Order No. 1994- 1994 Water quality standards for 26A Department of Environment and Natural Resources Administrative Order No. 2000- 2000 Air environment standards, exhaust gas standards 81 Presidential Decree (PD), Executive Order (EO), Republic Act (RA), DENR (Department of Environment and Natural Resources) Administrative Order (DAO), DPWH (Department of Public Works and Highway) Administrative Order Source: Relevant Bureau Websites

4.4.3 Resident Relocation Procedures in the Philippines There is no government organization which specializes in land acquisition and resident relocation in the Philippines, instead each project implementing organization carries out land acquisition and resident relocation on their own. The only organization which has established procedures for land acquisition and resident relocation is the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH), and other organizations carry out the procedures in accordance with the DPWH procedures and lending agency guidelines.

(1) Land Acquisition in Accordance with the Act to Facilitate the Acquisition of Right-of-Way, Site or Location for National Government Infrastructure Projects and for Other Purposes Procedures for land acquisition in accordance with the Act to Facilitate the Acquisition of Right-of-Way, Site or Location for National Government Infrastructure Projects and for Other Purposes are as follows. 1) As the first option, the project implementer verifies with the land owner if they wish to transfer the estate. 2) In the event the land owner refuses to transfer the estate, a compensation amount calculated based a zonal value stipulated by the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) shall be presented to the land owner for negotiation. 3) If the compensation amount stipulated by the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) is refused, the project implementer shall negotiate with the land owner at a price range equal to or below the appropriate market value. The project implementer can request an assessment of the appropriate market value of

4-21 the land from government or private organizations. The negotiation period is a maximum of 15 days. 4) If the land owner does not agree with the compensation amount, arbitration shall be sought by the court of jurisdiction. The court shall calculate the compensation amount within 60 days, and the land acquisition shall be completed through payment of the compensation amount to the land owner.

(2) Land Acquisition in Accordance with the IROW Procedural Manual (2003) (DPWH) Procedures for land acquisition and resident relocation in accordance with the DPWH IROW Procedural Manual (Infrastructure Right-Of-Way) are as follows. 1) Implementation of a land survey and creation of reports 2) Creation of Land Acquisition Plan and Resettlement Acton Plan (LAPRAP) 3) Land acquisition through negotiation 4) Compulsory expropriation (when the land owner refuses the 2 nd proposal during negotiations)

(3) Relocation of Illegal Occupants Handling of illegal occupants is mainly carried out in accordance with Republic Act No. 7279. With the enactment of this law, it is no longer possible to refuse to provide a relocation destination and compel relocation of illegal occupants. Provision of a relocation destination is generally the responsibility of local government, with support by the National Housing Authority (NHA) and Housing and Urban Development Coordinating Council (HUDCC).

(4) Details of Host Country EIA etc. Required for Project Implementation The Philippines applies the Philippines Environmental Impact Statement System (PEISS) to joint government and private sector projects which may pose a risk to nature, society or the environment. The Philippines EIA details required for the implementation of this project are as follows.

4.4.4 Procedures for Environmental Impact Assessment System Implementation Philippines EIA procedures consist of 6 stages of (a) screening, (b) scoping, (c) EIA implementation and report preparation, (d) environmental assessment report investigation and assessment, (e) decision-making, and (f) monitoring and assessment screening after issuance of an Environmental Compliance Certificate (ECC). The procedures for the first 5 stages are all items necessary when the project implementer applies for the ECC or Certificate of Non-Coverage (CNC). Figure 4-6 shows the implementation flow for EIA procedures.

4-22 Figure 4-6 Philippines EIA Implementation Flow

スクリーニングScreening

Environmental assessment Environmental assessment 環境アセスメント必要 環境アセスメント必要なし required not required

環境アセスメントEnvironmental assessmentスコーピング scoping

Creation環境アセスメント/ of reports necessary ECC取得に必要なfor environmental assessment/ECC報告書の作成 acquisition

Project plan participationResident 住 環境アセスメント報告書Environmental assessment 事業計画の変更/changes/project 民 reportsのレビュー、評価 review/assessment 事業実施地の変更implementation 参 （DENR-EMB）(DENR-EMB) location changes 加

ECC issuance ECC issuance ECCの発行 ECC発行拒否 DENR-EMBによる提言或いSuggestions or orders refusal from -EMBは命令

Authorization関連する他の機関から求められる許可及び認可の取得 and approval required by other related organizations

Project 事業の拡張/変更 事業の実施Project expansion/changes implementation

Environmental impact 環境影響モニタリング及び評価監査monitoring and assessment studies

事業実施者による活動Project implementer activities DENR-ENBによる活動DENR-EMB activities 事業実施者による活動であるが、EIAﾌﾟﾛｾｽ範囲外Project implementer activities outside of EIA process scope 住民参加Resident participation Source: Created by Study Team based on Revised Procedural Manual for DAO 03-30, 2008

The maximum number of days required for DENR-EMB screening procedures are shown in Table 4-14.

Table 4-14 Maximum Number of Days Required for DENR-EMB Screenings Review/Assessment procedures Estimated maximum number of days required for procedures Screening procedures by EMB 90 days Approval of proposal 15 days Issuance of statements of intent 15 days Source: Revised Procedural Manual for DAO 03-30, 2008

(1) Projects Subject to Environmental Assessment (EIA) Implementation Projects which may have significant impact on the environment (Environmentally-Critical Projects/ECPs) and projects which occur in Environmentally-Critical Areas (ECAs) are subject to EIA implementation in the Philippines. The AGT introduction project in this project proposal requires EIA implementation as shown in Table 4-15.

4-23 Table 4-15 Environmentally Critical Projects (ECPs) (Infrastructure Project Framework) Project Type Scale Large Scale Dams Submerged area 25 ha or more Or 20 million m 3 or greater Thermal Power Plants 50 MW or more Other Thermal Power Plants 30 MW or more Hydroelectric Power Plants Filling of 20 million or greater Large Scale Reclamation Works 50 ha or more New Construction of Bridges and Elevated 10 km or more Bridges New Construction of Roads 20 km or more (10 km or more in dangerous slope areas) Tunnels, Underpasses, Railways 1 km or more Source: Revised Procedural Manual for DAO 03-30, 2008

(2) Materials Required for EIA Approval In order to implement the project it is necessary to carry out an EIA and receive an Environmental Compliance Certificate (ECC). Issuance of an ECC is decided upon by the DENR-EMB after screening of project report details. In PEISS, projects are divided into 5 project groups according to project type and project location as shown in Table 4-16.

Table 4-16 Project Groups under PEISS Group I All ECP projects including ECAs and NECAs (Non-ECAs) Group II Projects which pose a risk of serious environmental impact among ECAs (NECP: Non-ECP) Group III NECP projects in areas where no risk of serious environmental impact is expected (NECA) Group IV Joint projects (Projects implemented and managed by multiple project implementers within a single area. Applies to economic development zones and industrial complexes) Group V Other projects Source: Revised Procedural Manual for DAO 03-30, 2008

The AGT project falls under group I, so the following 5 materials are required for ECC. i) Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) ii) Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) iii) Initial Environmental Examination Report (IEER) iv) IEE Checklist (IEEC) v) Project Description Report (PDR)

4-24 4.5 Items the Relevant Country (Implementing Organization, Other Organizations) Must Accomplish in order to Realize Project

The items that the Indian government must accomplish in order to realize this project are shown in Table 4- 17.

Table 4-17 Items that Must be Accomplished by the Government in order to Realize the Project Relevant Stage Implementation item Period organization Detailed Environmental Project classification (screening) DOTC 10-15 working Design impact EIA scope verification days assessment Scoping DOTC 40-45 working (EIA) DENR-EMB days EIA implementation DOTC 60-90 working days EIS receipt/document verification DENR-EMB 3-7 working days EIS assessment DENR-EMB 40 working days Screening by EIA assessment committee EMB EIARC 10-15 working (EIARC) days Requests for additional materials, compilation of screening results, etc. Issuance/refusal of environmental DENR 10-15 working compliance certificate (ECC) Secretary days Issuance of environmental compliance DENR-EMB 5-7 working certificate (ECC) approval letter days Land Surveying, impact scope study, property DOTC 6 months acquisition study and resident Preparation of relocation destination, DOTC 12 months relocation acquisition of land, implementation of resident relocation plan Before construction Utility transfer authorization DOTC 3 months commencement Roadside tree felling authorization DENR －FMB 1 month Waste processing authorization DENR － 1 month EMB Road occupancy authorization/traffic MMDA 1 month restriction authorization Source: Study Team

4-25 Chapter 5 Financial and Economic Evaluation

5.1 Estimation of Project Cost

5.1.1 Construction Cost The construction unit cost is estimated based on both the actual cost for the construction of similar projects in Asia and current unit cost of railway projects in Philippines. The construction cost is estimated for Option- 2 which is selected in Section 3.3.1 as the proposed route.

The general assumptions for the construction cost estimation are as follows: - Base year of estimation: October 2014 - Exchange rates: Following exchange rates are adopted based on the monthly average of October 2014. 1.00 US$ = 42.41 Php = 108.99 Yen 1.00 Php = 0.02 US$ = 2.57 Yen 1.00 Yen = 0.01 US$ = 0.39 Php - Consulting fee: The consulting fee is estimated as 4% of the sum of the construction cost excluding land cost. - Contingency: The contingency is estimated as 5% of the sum of the construction cost excluding land cost, and of the consulting fee. - Taxes: Value Added Tax (VAT) of 12% is applied for the sum of the construction cost, consulting fee and contingency. The import duty of 12% is applied for foreign currency (F/C) portion of the construction cost.

Table 5-1 shows the unit cost and quantity of the construction cost. Construction costs of the project are shown in Table 5-2 (in US$) and Table 5-3 (in Peso).

Table 5-1 Unit Cost and Quantity of the Construction Cost Unit Cost Item Unit F/C L/C Quantity (Million Yen) (Million Peso) Civil Construction Cost (1) Main line (elevated section) km 634.63 550.93 16.20 (2) Main line (underground section) km 1,050.00 918.29 2.20 (3) Station set 137.50 126.07 12.00 (4) Depot LS 1,493.20 829.88 1.00 (5) Environmental mitigation and compensation LS 0.00 46.69 1.00 E&M/Rolling Stock Cost (6) Rolling 180.00 0.00 144.00 (7) Power supply system km 641.67 64.85 18.40 (8) Signalling and telecommunication km 598.33 56.58 18.40 (9) AFC set 115.38 11.67 12.00 (10) Maintenance equipment (depot) LS 700.00 116.73 1.00 Land Cost (11) Depot ha 0.00 60.00 6.000 (12) House ha 0.00 1,000.00 0.123 Source: Study Team

5-1 Table 5-2 Construction Cost (in US$) Unit: Million US$ Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total (2017 to 2022) Item F/C L/C F/C L/C F/C L/C F/C L/C F/C L/C F/C L/C F/C L/C Total Land Cost 1. Land cost 0.0 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4 11.4 Civil Construction Cost 2. Main line (elevated) 2.8 6.3 6.6 14.7 42.4 94.7 42.4 94.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.3 210.5 304.8 3. Main line (underground) 0.6 1.4 1.5 3.3 9.5 21.4 9.5 21.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.2 47.6 68.8 4. Station 0.5 1.1 0.8 1.8 4.5 10.7 4.5 10.7 4.8 11.4 0.0 0.0 15.1 35.7 50.8 5. Depot 0.4 0.6 1.6 2.3 8.2 11.7 3.4 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.7 19.6 33.3 6. Environmental mitigation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.1 1.1 7. Total of civil 4.3 9.4 10.5 22.2 64.7 138.9 60.0 132.0 4.8 11.7 0.0 0.2 144.4 314.4 458.8 E&M/Rolling Stock Cost 5-2 8. Rolling stock 0.0 0.0 9.5 0.0 64.2 0.0 64.2 0.0 64.2 0.0 35.7 0.0 237.8 0.0 237.8 9. Power supply system 0.0 0.0 10.8 2.8 37.9 9.8 37.9 9.8 21.7 5.6 0.0 0.0 108.3 28.1 136.5 10. Signal. and telecom. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.4 8.8 36.4 8.8 28.3 6.9 101.0 24.5 125.6 11. AFC 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.6 4.2 1.1 4.2 1.1 2.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 12.7 3.3 16.0 12. Maintenance equipment 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.6 1.9 0.8 3.2 1.4 0.0 0.0 6.4 2.8 9.2 13. Total of E&M/RS 0.0 0.0 22.5 3.4 107.6 11.5 144.6 20.6 127.6 16.4 64.0 6.9 466.3 58.7 525.0

14. Total of civil and E&M/RS 4.3 9.4 33.0 25.6 172.4 150.3 204.6 152.6 132.5 28.1 64.0 7.1 610.6 373.2 983.8 15. Consulting fee (4%) 0.2 0.4 1.3 1.0 6.9 6.0 8.2 6.1 5.3 1.1 2.6 0.3 24.4 14.9 39.4 16. Contingency (5%) 0.2 0.5 1.7 1.3 9.0 7.8 10.6 7.9 6.9 1.5 3.3 0.4 31.8 19.4 51.2 17. Taxes 1.1 1.2 8.3 3.4 43.3 19.7 51.4 20.0 33.3 3.7 16.1 0.9 153.3 48.9 202.2 18. Grand total 5.8 22.9 44.3 31.3 231.5 183.9 274.7 186.7 177.9 34.4 85.9 8.6 820.1 467.8 1,287.9

Remarks: 7. Total of civil=2.+3.+4.+5.+6. 16. Contingency (5%)=(14.+15.)*5% 13. Total of E&M/RS=8.+9.+10.+11.+12. 17. Taxes=(14.+15.+16.)*12% (VAT) +(F/C portion of 14.)*12% (import duty) 14. Total of civil and E&M/RS=7.+13. 18. Grand total=1.+14.+15.+16.+17. 15. Consulting fee (4%) ＝14.*4%

Source: Study Team Table 5-2 (continued) Construction Cost (in US$) Unit: Million US$ Year 2028 Total (2017 to 2022, 2028) Item F/C L/C F/C L/C Total Land Cost 1. Land cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4 11.4 Civil Construction Cost 2. Main line (elevated) 0.0 0.0 94.3 210.5 304.8 3. Main line (underground) 0.0 0.0 21.2 47.6 68.8 4. Station 0.0 0.0 15.1 35.7 50.8 5. Depot 0.0 0.0 13.7 19.6 33.3 6. Environmental mitigation 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.1 7. Total of civil 0.0 0.0 144.4 314.4 458.8 E&M/Rolling Stock Cost 5-3 8. Rolling stock 69.4 0.0 307.2 0.0 307.2 9. Power supply system 0.0 0.0 108.3 28.1 136.5 10. Signal. and telecom. 0.0 0.0 101.0 24.5 125.6 11. AFC 0.0 0.0 12.7 3.3 16.0 12. Maintenance equipment 0.0 0.0 6.4 2.8 9.2 13. Total of E&M/RS 69.4 0.0 535.7 58.7 594.4

14. Total of civil and E&M/RS 69.4 0.0 680.0 373.2 1,053.2 15. Consulting fee (4%) 2.8 0.0 27.2 14.9 42.1 16. Contingency (5%) 3.6 0.0 35.4 19.4 54.8 17. Taxes 17.4 0.0 170.7 48.9 219.6 18. Grand total 93.2 0.0 913.3 467.8 1,381.1 Remarks: 7. Total of civil=2.+3.+4.+5.+6. 16. Contingency (5%)=(14.+15.)*5% 13. Total of E&M/RS=8.+9.+10.+11.+12. 17. Taxes=(14.+15.+16.)*12% (VAT) +(F/C portion of 14.)*12% (import duty) 14. Total of civil and E&M/RS=7.+13. 18. Grand total=1.+14.+15.+16.+17. 15. Consulting fee (4%) ＝14.*4%

Source: Study Team Table 5-3 Construction Cost (in Peso) Unit: Million Peso Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 合計(2017 ～2022) Item F/C L/C F/C L/C F/C L/C F/C L/C F/C L/C F/C L/C F/C L/C 計 Land Cost 1. Land cost 0.0 483.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 483.0 483.0 Civil Construction Cost 2. Main line (elevated) 120.0 267.8 280.0 624.8 1,800.2 4,016.3 1,800.2 4,016.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4,000.4 8,925.0 12,925.4 3. Main line (underground) 27.0 60.6 62.9 141.4 404.5 909.1 404.5 909.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 898.8 2,020.2 2,919.1 4. Station 19.3 45.4 32.1 75.6 192.6 453.9 192.6 453.9 205.4 484.1 0.0 0.0 642.0 1,512.8 2,154.9 5. Depot 17.4 24.9 69.7 99.6 348.6 497.9 145.3 207.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 581.0 829.9 1,410.9 6. Environmental mitigation 0.0 1.4 0.0 1.9 0.0 11.7 0.0 11.7 0.0 11.7 0.0 8.4 0.0 46.7 46.7 7. Total of civil 183.7 400.0 444.8 943.3 2,745.9 5,888.8 2,542.5 5,598.4 205.4 495.8 0.0 8.4 6,122.2 13,334.7 19,456.9 E&M/Rolling Stock Cost 5-4 8. Rolling stock 0.0 0.0 403.4 0.0 2,723.1 0.0 2,723.1 0.0 2,723.1 0.0 1,512.8 0.0 10,085.6 0.0 10,085.6 9. Power supply system 0.0 0.0 459.4 119.3 1,607.9 417.6 1,607.9 417.6 918.8 238.7 0.0 0.0 4,594.0 1,193.3 5,787.3 10. Signal. and telecom. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1,542.2 374.8 1,542.2 374.8 1,199.5 291.5 4,283.8 1,041.1 5,324.9 11. AFC 0.0 0.0 91.6 23.8 177.8 46.2 177.8 46.2 91.6 23.8 0.0 0.0 538.8 140.1 678.8 12. Maintenance equipment 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.5 23.3 81.7 35.0 136.2 58.4 0.0 0.0 272.4 116.7 389.1 13. Total of E&M/RS 0.0 0.0 954.4 143.1 4,563.3 487.2 6,132.7 873.7 5,411.9 695.6 2,712.3 291.5 19,774.6 2,491.2 22,265.7

14. Total of civil and E&M/RS 183.7 400.0 1,399.2 1,086.4 7,309.1 6,376.0 8,675.2 6,472.0 5,617.3 1,191.4 2,712.3 299.9 25,896.8 15,825.9 41,722.6 15. Consulting fee (4%) 7.3 16.0 56.0 43.5 292.4 255.0 347.0 258.9 224.7 47.7 108.5 12.0 1,035.9 633.0 1,668.9 16. Contingency (5%) 9.6 20.8 72.8 56.5 380.1 331.6 451.1 336.5 292.1 62.0 141.0 15.6 1,346.6 822.9 2,169.6 17. Taxes 46.1 52.4 351.3 142.4 1,834.9 835.5 2,177.8 848.1 1,410.2 156.1 680.9 39.3 6,501.1 2,073.8 8,574.9 18. Grand total 246.7 972.3 1,879.2 1,328.7 9,816.5 7,798.1 11,651.1 7,915.6 7,544.3 1,457.1 3,642.7 366.8 34,780.4 19,838.7 54,619.1 Remarks: 7. Total of civil=2.+3.+4.+5.+6. 16. Contingency (5%)=(14.+15.)*5% 13. Total of E&M/RS=8.+9.+10.+11.+12. 17. Taxes=(14.+15.+16.)*12% (VAT) +(F/C portion of 14.)*12% (import duty) 14. Total of civil and E&M/RS=7.+13. 18. Grand total=1.+14.+15.+16.+17. 15. Consulting fee (4%) ＝14.*4%

Source: Study Team Table 5-3 (continued) Construction Cost (in Peso) Unit: Million Peso Year 2028 Total (2017 to 2022, 2028) Item F/C L/C F/C L/C Total Land Cost 1. Land Cost 0.0 0.0 0.0 483.0 483.0 Civil Construction Cost 2. Main line (elevated) 0.0 0.0 4,000.4 8,925.0 12,925.4 3. Main line (underground) 0.0 0.0 898.8 2,020.2 2,919.1 4. Station 0.0 0.0 642.0 1,512.8 2,154.9 5. Depot 0.0 0.0 581.0 829.9 1,410.9 6. Environmental mitigation 0.0 0.0 0.0 46.7 46.7 7. Total of civil 0.0 0.0 6,122.2 13,334.7 19,456.9 E&M/Rolling Stock Cost 5-5 8. Rolling stock 2,941.6 0.0 13,027.2 0.0 13,027.2 9. Power supply system 0.0 0.0 4,594.0 1,193.3 5,787.3 10. Signal. and telecom. 0.0 0.0 4,283.8 1,041.1 5,324.9 11. AFC 0.0 0.0 538.8 140.1 678.8 12. Maintenance equipment 0.0 0.0 272.4 116.7 389.1 13. Total of E&M/RS 2,941.6 0.0 22,716.2 2,491.2 25,207.4

14. Total of civil and E&M/RS 2,941.6 0.0 28,838.4 15,825.9 44,664.3 15. Consulting fee (4%) 117.7 0.0 1,153.5 633.0 1,786.6 16. Contingency (5%) 153.0 0.0 1,499.6 822.9 2,322.5 17. Taxes 738.5 0.0 7,239.6 2,073.8 9,313.4 18. Grand total 3,950.7 0.0 38,731.2 19,838.7 58,569.8 Remarks: 7. Total of civil=2.+3.+4.+5.+6. 16. Contingency (5%)=(14.+15.)*5% 13. Total of E&M/RS=8.+9.+10.+11.+12. 17. Taxes=(14.+15.+16.)*12% (VAT) +(F/C portion of 14.)*12% (import duty) 14. Total of civil and E&M/RS=7.+13. 18. Grand total=1.+14.+15.+16.+17. 15. Consulting fee (4%) ＝14.*4%

Source: Study Team 5.1.2 Operation and Maintenance Cost The operation and maintenance cost for the proposed project are estimated based on the operation plan described in Section 3.4 8. The principal components of the O&M cost are labour for both operation and maintenance, spare parts and consumables, and power consumption for both rolling stock and other facilities. It is assumed that rental of office will not be necessary as such facilities will be built within the depot. However, an extra security (professional guards) will be needed. The main parameters used to determine the cost are the track length, number of stations, number of trains, train-km/year, number of RSS, etc. Except for electrical power rates, the prices of each item are estimated using the current unit prices of existing similar railway systems.

(1) Labour The workforce needed to operate the EWR is determined based on standard needs for each department in the organization chart. The manpower needed is considering for the operation and maintenance with subcontractors for maintenance. Some of the functions could be subcontracted, as explained in previous section in 3.4.8, but for purposes of the cost calculation we assume all personnel as in-house staff. The effect on cost in the case of subcontracts is minimal and can be neglected.

Manpower for the administration and management is considered to be a constant number, independent of the size of the system (length of tracks, number of stations, number of trains, etc.), but based on similar organizational structures.

The staffing for other technical departments depends on the size of the system, and the ration is based on detailed evaluation of duties, number of shifts, and number of persons needed for each task. For example, the number of drivers is assumed to be 72 drivers for 20 train sets. The breakdown of staffing for the EWR for opening year (2023) is shown in Table 5-4.

The cost of labour for opening year (2023) is estimated based on the average annual wages for different categories of staff. These values are calculated based on a broad average market value of similar jobs in Manila. The different average annual wages are shown in Table 5-5.

5-6 Table 5-4 Manpower Breakdown of EWR for Opening Year Item Main Parameter Value Ratio Staff Administration Fixed 145 Station 84 Operation Number of stations 12 3 36 AFC Number of stations 12 4 48 Drivers Number of trains 20 3.6 72 Engineering and Maintenance 108 Maintenance Fixed 90 Engineering Fixed 18 Cleaning Staff Number of stations 12 13 156 Security Stations Number of stations 12 17 204 Total Without Cleaning Line length (km) 613 With Cleaning Line length (km) 769 Source: Study Team

Table 5-5 Average Salaries for Different Staffing Categories Average Salary Annual Cost Summary Staff (Php/year) (Mil.Yen/year) (Mil.US$/year) (Mil.Php/year) (Mil.Yen/year) (Mil.US$/year) Administration 145 367,816.00 0.9453 0.0087 53.333 137.067 1.258 Stations 84 222,222.00 0.5711 0.0052 18.667 47.973 0.440 Drivers 72 266,667.00 0.6853 0.0063 19.200 49.344 0.453 Maintenance 90 0.00 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Engineering 18 333,333.00 0.8567 0.0079 6.000 15.420 0.141 Security 204 200,000.00 0..5140 0.0047 40.800 104.856 0.962 Cleaning Staff 156 133,333.00 0.3427 0.0031 20.800 53.456 0.490 Total 769 158.800 408.116 3.745 Source: Study Team

(2) Spare Part (Materials) The cost of spare parts is determined as an average ratio per several parameters, such as train maintenance, track maintenance, train operation, etc. The cost for maintenance’s labours that assumed to be outsource together with spare parts and consumables with maintenance expenses is estimated to be 7.891 million US$ per year in case of 24 trains that consist of 144 cars and to be 10.093 million US$ per year in case of 31 trains that consist of 186 cars. The cost for the car overhaul for every 10 years is estimated to be 0.044 million US$ per car.

5-7 (3) Power Consumption The power consumption is estimated based on the operation plan. The power rate is 9 Php per kWh. This power rate is provided by MERALCO as a reference. The total annual cost for power consumption is estimated for EWR is shown in Table 5-6.

Table 5-6 Total Annual Cost of Power Consumption Year 2023 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2053 Power Consumption 58,266 78,984 82,588 87,041 87,041 88,193 88,193 (MWh/year) Million Php/year 524.394 710.856 743.292 783.369 783.369 793.737 793.737 Million Yen/Year 1,347.693 1,826.900 1,910.260 2,013.258 2,013.258 2,039.904 2,039.904 Million US$/Year 12.365 16.762 17.527 18.472 18.472 18.716 18.716 Source: Study Team

(4) Summary The summary of O&M costs per train numbers and per item is presented in Table 5-7. The O&M cost for the opening year 2023 would be around 24.001 million US$.

Table 5-7 Operation and Maintenance Cost Unit: Million US$ Item / Year 2023 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2053 Manpower 3.745 3.895 3.921 3.946 3.971 4.021 4.072 Administration 1.258 1.258 1.258 1.258 1.258 1.258 1.258 Stations 0.440 0.440 0.440 0.440 0.440 0.440 0.440 Drivers 0.453 0.604 0.629 0.654 0.679 0.729 0.780 Engineering 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141 Security 0.962 0.962 0.962 0.962 0.962 0.962 0.962 Cleaning Staff 0.490 0.490 0.490 0.490 0.490 0.490 0.490 Maintenance (Labor, Spare Parts, etc.) 7.891 7.891 7.891 7.891 10.093 10.093 10.093 Car Overhaul 0.000 1.321 0.000 1.057 1.057 0.000 0.000 Power Consumption 12.365 16.762 17.527 18.472 18.472 18.716 18.716 Total 24.001 29.870 29.339 31.366 33.593 32.831 32.881 Source: Study Team

5-8 5.2 Preliminary Economic and Financial Analyses

5.2.1 Preliminary Economic Analysis (1) Methodology The objective of the preliminary economic analysis is to analyse and evaluate the viability of implementing this project from the viewpoint of national economy. A comparative analysis of costs and benefits both in the case of executing the project ("With project") and not executing the project ("Without project") is carried out. Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR), Benefit and Cost Ratio (B/C Ratio) and Economic Net Present Value (ENPV) are estimated as the evaluation indexes.

(2) Premises The preliminary economic analysis is carried out based on the following premises. - Period of the Analysis: The period of the analysis is set at 36 years including the construction period from 2017 to 2022, and 30 years of operation from 2023 to 2052. - Social Discount Rate (SDR): SDR of 15% is applied from “ICC Project Evaluation Procedures and Guidelines” by The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA). All costs and benefits are discounted back at 15%. The EIRR is evaluated in comparison with the opportunity cost of capital, and SDR is applied as the opportunity cost of capital in the analysis. - Exchange Rate: Exchange rate is assumed to be 1.00 US$ = 42.41 Pesos = 108.99 Yen based on the monthly average of October 2014. - Economic Price: All costs are based on constant prices in 2014. All costs are classified as imported products (foreign currency portion) or domestic products (local currency portion). The economic costs are calculated excluding transferable items such as various taxes, import duties and subsidies etc., from the viewpoint of the national economy. Economic price of imported products are estimated excluding import duties and value added tax (VAT) from market price. Economic price of domestic products are estimated excluding VAT from market price. 11% of insurance cost is excluded from labor cost of O&M cost. - Inflation: Inflation is not considered in the economic analysis. - Residual Value: The residual value in the last year (2052) of the analysis is counted as a negative construction cost. The residual value is calculated based on the life cycle of the facilities as shown in Table 5-8.

Table 5-8 Life Cycle of Facilities Item Duration Civil structure 50 years Building 50 years E&M system 30 years Rolling stock 30 years Source: Study Team

5-9 (3) Results of Economic Analysis 1) Cases of the Analysis In the analysis, costs and benefits are defined from the difference between the cases of "With project" and "Without project". The cases are summarized as follows. - "With project" is the case in which the proposed system is implemented and passenger transportation services are provided through the proposed route. - "Without project" is the case that the proposed project is not implemented and public transportation is served by car, jeepney and bus using existing roads.

2) Project Costs Project costs consist of construction and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. All costs are shown in economic price.

a) Construction Cost The construction cost of proposed system is summarized in Table 5-9. This construction costs include initial construction costs from 2017 to 2022 and additional cost of 2028.

Table 5-9 Construction Cost of Proposed System (in Economic Price) Unit: million US$ 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total from 2017 to 2022 26.4 64.0 352.4 390.0 175.3 77.6 1,085.7

2028 Total from 2017 to 2028 75.7 1,161.5 Source: Study Team

b) Operation and Maintenance (O&M) Cost The O&M cost of proposed system in economic price is calculated excluding taxes and 11% of insurance cost from estimation in previous section.

3) Project Benefits The quantified benefits of Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) savings and Transport Time Cost (TTC) savings are estimated in the analysis.

a) VOC Savings The VOC savings are calculated by taking the difference in vehicle-km between "With project" and "Without project" from the results of demand forecast. The unit of vehicle operating costs (Table 5-10) in 2014 price are estimated based on the JICA report “Study on Railway Strategy for Clark-Metro Manila for the Greater Capital Region in the Republic of the Philippines (2013)” and considering the inflation rate of 4.4% (2013- 2014) from the central bank of the Republic of the Philippines.

5-10 Table 5-10 Unit of Vehicle Operating Costs (in Economic Price) Unit: US$/km Speed (km/h) Car Jeepney Bus Truck 5 0.67 1.09 2.11 4.39 10 0.41 0.63 1.21 2.44 20 0.27 0.40 0.76 1.47 30 0.23 0.33 0.61 1.06 40 0.20 0.29 0.54 0.87 50 0.19 0.29 0.53 0.78 Source: Study Team b) TTC Savings The TTC savings are calculated by taking the difference in required time between "With project" and "Without project" from the results of demand forecast. The unit time value of passengers (Table 5-11) are estimated based on the above mentioned report and inflation rate.

Table 5-11 Unit Time Value of Passengers Car user Public transport user

2.8 US$/hour 2.0 US$/hour Source: Study Team

In addition to the benefits mentioned above, other indirect benefits such as improvement of regional transport, contributing natural and social environment and promoting regional development are expected. It is difficult to evaluate these benefits quantitatively, these values are not calculate in the analysis. However, these are important factors for the decision of adopting this project.

4) Evaluation Indexes The results of the preliminary economic analysis based on the above conditions are summarized in Table 5- 12, and the economic cash flow is shown in Table 5-14. EIRR is found to be 15.5% and this project is considered economically viable compared with 15% of social discount rate.

Table 5-12 Results of Economic Evaluation Indexes (Social discount rate = 15%) Economic Internal Rate Benefit and Cost Ratio Economic Net Present Value of Return (EIRR) (B/C Ratio) (ENPV) 15.5 % 1.04 28.9 (million US$) Source: Study Team

5-11 5) Sensitivity Analysis The project costs and benefits applied in the analysis include certain variations. Some margin is assumed for these factors and by identifying the variation in results due to the margin, the stability of project feasibility can be obtained as shown in Table 5-13. In the case of decrease in the benefits by 5%, the EIRRs are not satisfy the 15% of social discount rate, and are not economically feasible.

Table 5-13 Results of Sensitivity Analysis Cost -10% -5% 0% +5% +10% Benefit +10% 16.8% 16.7% 16.7% 16.6% 16.6% +5% 16.2% 16.1% 16.1% 16.0% 16.0% 0% 15.6% 15.5% 15.5% 15.4% 15.4% -5% 15.0% 14.9% 14.8% 14.8% 14.7% -10% 14.3% 14.3% 14.2% 14.1% 14.1% Source: Study Team

5-12 Table 5-14 Economic Cashflow Unit: million US$ Project Costs Project Benefits Net Seq. Year VOC TTC Economic No. Construction O&M Total Total saving saving Benefits -6 2017 26.4 0.0 26.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -26.4 -5 2018 64.0 0.0 64.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -64.0 -4 2019 352.4 0.0 352.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -352.4 -3 2020 390.0 0.0 390.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -390.0 -2 2021 175.3 0.0 175.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -175.3 -1 2022 77.6 0.0 77.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 -77.6 1 2023 0.0 21.5 21.5 187.7 34.5 222.2 200.8 2 2024 0.0 22.1 22.1 207.0 41.8 248.9 226.7 3 2025 0.0 22.4 22.4 193.9 34.8 228.7 206.3 4 2026 0.0 23.1 23.1 201.1 37.0 238.1 215.0 5 2027 0.0 23.7 23.7 208.2 39.2 247.5 223.7 6 2028 75.7 24.0 99.7 215.4 41.4 256.8 157.1 7 2029 0.0 25.6 25.6 222.6 43.6 266.2 240.6 8 2030 0.0 26.7 26.7 228.1 49.0 277.1 250.4 9 2031 0.0 26.7 26.7 233.5 51.4 284.8 258.1 10 2032 0.0 26.7 26.7 238.8 53.7 292.5 265.9 11 2033 0.0 26.2 26.2 244.2 56.1 300.3 274.1 12 2034 0.0 26.2 26.2 249.5 58.5 308.0 281.8 13 2035 0.0 26.2 26.2 251.3 56.4 307.7 281.4 14 2036 0.0 26.4 26.4 256.8 57.3 314.1 287.7 15 2037 0.0 26.2 26.2 262.4 58.2 320.6 294.4 16 2038 0.0 27.1 27.1 267.9 59.2 327.1 300.0 17 2039 0.0 27.1 27.1 273.5 60.1 333.5 306.4 18 2040 0.0 28.0 28.0 279.0 61.0 340.0 312.0 19 2041 0.0 28.0 28.0 283.1 61.0 344.1 316.1 20 2042 0.0 30.0 30.0 287.2 61.0 348.2 318.2 21 2043 0.0 30.0 30.0 291.2 61.1 352.3 322.3 22 2044 0.0 30.0 30.0 295.3 61.1 356.4 326.4 23 2045 0.0 30.0 30.0 299.4 61.1 360.5 330.4 24 2046 0.0 29.1 29.1 303.5 61.1 364.6 335.5 25 2047 0.0 29.1 29.1 307.5 61.1 368.7 339.6 26 2048 0.0 29.3 29.3 311.6 61.1 372.8 343.4 27 2049 0.0 29.3 29.3 315.7 61.2 376.8 347.5 28 2050 0.0 29.3 29.3 319.8 61.2 380.9 351.6 29 2051 0.0 29.3 29.3 323.8 61.2 385.0 355.7 30 2052 -197.4 29.4 -168.0 327.9 61.2 389.1 557.1 Source: Study Team

5-13 5.2.2 Preliminary Financial Analysis (1) Methodology The objective of the preliminary financial analysis is to evaluate the financial adequacy of the project, irrespectively implementation scheme or organization. Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) and Financial Net Present Value (FNPV) are estimated as the evaluation indexes.

(2) Premises The preliminary financial analysis is carried out based on the following premises. - Period of the Analysis: The period of the analysis is set at 36 years including the construction period from 2017 to 2022, and 30 years of operation from 2023 to 2052. - Exchange Rate: Exchange rate is assumed to be 1.00 US$ = 42.41 Pesos = 108.99 Yen based on the monthly average of October 2014. - Financial Price: All costs are based on constant prices in 2014. The cost for domestic products is the market price including various taxes, and for imported products is the CIF price with import duties, inland transportation cost and other fees. - Inflation: Inflation is not considered in the financial analysis. - Residual Value: The residual value in the last year (2052) of the analysis is counted as a negative construction cost. The residual value is calculated based on the life cycle of the facilities as shown in Table 5-8.

(3) Evaluation Measure The FIRR is evaluated in comparison to the Financial Opportunity Cost of Capital (FOCC). In this analysis, the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) serves as a proxy for the FOCC combined with the financial sources. For estimation of WACC, 90% of total construction cost is covered by Japanese ODA loan (STEP) and remaining 10% would be prepared by Philippine government are assumed. Terms and conditions of STEP (standard, tied) for the Philippines (category; middle income class) are interest rate of 0.10% and payment term of 40 years with grace period of 10 years. 10% of government expenditure is assumed as interest rate with 4.61% of government bonds (25 years). Therefore, WACC is assumed as 0.6% from the above financial form.

(4) Results of Preliminary Financial Analysis a) Construction Costs Table 5-15 shows the construction cost for the financial analysis. This construction cost include initial construction costs from 2017 to 2022 and additional cost of 2028.

5-14 Table 5-15 Construction Cost (in Financial Price) Unit: million US$ 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total from 2017 to 2022 28.7 75.6 415.4 461.4 212.3 94.5 1,287.9

2028 Total from 2017 to 2028 93.2 1,381.1 Source: Study Team b) Revenue Annual revenue is composed of passenger fare revenue and non-fare revenue. Fare revenue is estimated from the number of annual passengers, average travel distance and passenger fare of 0.47 + 0.06 US$/km (20 + 2.5 Pesos/km) from the results of demand forecast. The non-fare revenue consists of relating business revenues such as revenue at the station and rental fees of commercial space and is assumed as 5% of fare revenue. c) Expenditure O&M cost is considered as expenditure in operation period. d) Evaluation Indexes Table 5-16 shows annual demand, revenue and expenditure of representative years. The results of preliminary financial analysis are shown in Table 5-17 and Table 5-19. As a result, the FIRR is found to be 6.2% and is considered financially viable compared with 0.6% of WACC.

Table 5-16 Annual Demand, Revenue and Expenditure Revenue (million US$) Annual demand Expenditure Year (thousand passengers/year) Fare revenue Non-fare revenue (million US$) 2023 79,557 85.1 4.3 24.0 2032 130,238 139.4 7.0 29.9 2042 161,460 169.3 8.5 33.6 2052 166,980 175.1 8.8 32.9 Source: Study Team

Table 5-17 Results of Financial Evaluation Indexes Financial Internal Rate of Return Weighted Average Cost of Capital Financial Net Present Value (FIRR) (WACC) (FNPV) 6.2 % 0.6 % 2,158.6 (million US$) Source: Study Team

5-15 In the financial analysis, some uncertain factors remain in the adopted values (construction cost, O&M cost and revenue). In order to determine the financial stability of the project, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to observe variations in the results by assuming fluctuations in each value in accordance with their respective unreliability. The results of the sensitivity analysis are shown in Table 5-18. The FIRR, in the case of construction and O&M cost increase by 10% or revenue decrease by 10%, still would exceed the WACC (0.6%) and is financially feasible.

Table 5-18 Results of Sensitivity Analysis Construction cost, O&M cost -10% -5% 0% +5% +10% Revenue +10% 8.0% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 6.2% +5% 7.6% 7.1% 6.7% 6.2% 5.9% 0% 7.2% 6.7% 6.2% 5.8% 5.5% -5% 6.7% 6.2% 5.8% 5.4% 5.0% -10% 6.2% 5.8% 5.4% 5.0% 4.6% Source: Study Team

5-16 Table 5-19 Financial Cashflow Unit: million US$ Seq. Construction Annual Year O&M Cost Total Cost Net Revenue No. Cost Revenue -6 2017 28.7 0.0 28.7 -28.7 0.0 -5 2018 75.6 0.0 75.6 -75.6 0.0 -4 2019 415.4 0.0 415.4 -415.4 0.0 -3 2020 461.4 0.0 461.4 -461.4 0.0 -2 2021 212.3 0.0 212.3 -212.3 0.0 -1 2022 94.5 0.0 94.5 -94.5 0.0 1 2023 0.0 24.0 24.0 65.3 89.3 2 2024 0.0 24.8 24.8 71.0 95.8 3 2025 0.0 25.0 25.0 79.3 104.3 4 2026 0.0 25.8 25.8 83.5 109.3 5 2027 0.0 26.5 26.5 87.8 114.4 6 2028 93.2 26.8 120.0 -0.6 119.4 7 2029 0.0 28.6 28.6 95.7 124.4 8 2030 0.0 29.9 29.9 106.8 136.7 9 2031 0.0 29.9 29.9 111.7 141.6 10 2032 0.0 29.9 29.9 116.5 146.4 11 2033 0.0 29.3 29.3 121.9 151.2 12 2034 0.0 29.3 29.3 126.6 155.9 13 2035 0.0 29.3 29.3 132.8 162.1 14 2036 0.0 29.6 29.6 135.5 165.0 15 2037 0.0 29.3 29.3 138.6 167.9 16 2038 0.0 30.3 30.3 140.4 170.7 17 2039 0.0 30.3 30.3 143.3 173.6 18 2040 0.0 31.4 31.4 145.2 176.5 19 2041 0.0 31.4 31.4 145.8 177.2 20 2042 0.0 33.6 33.6 144.2 177.8 21 2043 0.0 33.6 33.6 144.8 178.4 22 2044 0.0 33.6 33.6 145.4 179.0 23 2045 0.0 33.6 33.6 146.0 179.6 24 2046 0.0 32.6 32.6 147.7 180.2 25 2047 0.0 32.6 32.6 148.3 180.8 26 2048 0.0 32.8 32.8 148.6 181.4 27 2049 0.0 32.8 32.8 149.2 182.0 28 2050 0.0 32.8 32.8 149.8 182.7 29 2051 0.0 32.8 32.8 150.4 183.3 30 2052 -229.7 32.9 -196.8 380.7 183.9 Source: Study Team

5-17 5.3 Preliminary Analysis for Applicability of PPP Scheme

5.3.1 Candidates of Implementation Scheme For the implementation of urban transport project, there are fully public project where public funds from the public sector, and a method where the private sector participates through a Public Private Partnership (PPP) approach. In the Metro Manila, LRT Line 1 and 2 were constructed as a public project and operated by the LRTA (attached agency of DOTC), and MRT Line 3 was constructed and operated under a BLT (Build-Lease- Transfer) contract between DOTC and MRTC, a private corporation.

Table 5-20 shows the candidates of implementation scheme for the project. According to the division of roles of public sector and private sector, case A to G are considered as the PPP scheme. Scope of construction is divided by civil structure and E&M/rolling stock referring similar railway projects. For conventional railway, additionally dividing E&M and rolling stock (correspond to PPP case B and E) can be considered. However for proposed system, specifications of E&M and rolling stock are closely linked, and generally there are procured as a one package. Consequently, PPP case B and E for the proposed project means procuring entire E&M/rolling stock as one package and sharing its cost with public and private sectors.

Table 5-20 Candidates of Implementation Scheme Finance, Design and Scheme Construction/Procurement By O&M Organization Civil Structure E&M/Rolling Stock

Public Project Public Public Public

A Public Public Private

B Public Public Private Private

C Public Private Private

PPP D Public Private Private Private

E Private Private Public Private

F Private Public Private

G Private Public Public Private

Private Project Private Private Private Source: Study Team

LRT Line 1 extension and O&M project is planned to implement using PPP scheme with division of roles as mentioned in Table 5-21. Adopted scheme is considered nearly PPP case G in the Table 5-20. Japanese ODA loan is planned to apply to the public portion of the procurement of rolling stock, expansion of existing depot and construction of satellite depot. Public sector will turn over the assets of LRT Line 1 to the private sector, and the private sector will conduct the O&M of entire line including the extension section. The private sector will receive the fare revenue and also be permitted commercial development.

5-18 Table 5-21 Division of Roles of LRT Line 1 Extension and O&M Project [Public Sector] - Land acquisition of required ROW for extension section - Procurement of rolling stock - Expansion of existing depot and construction of satellite depot - Construction of Common station - Procurement of AFC [Private Sector] - Construction of extension section (11.7km) - O&M of entire LRT Line 1 Source: ”Pre-Bid Conference-13 January 2014”, DOTC/LRTA

5.3.2 Premises for Applying PPP Scheme to the Proposed Project The BOT law was enacted in 1990 and amended in 1994. While the BOT law had not been amended since 1994, its Implementing Rules and Regulations (IRR) has been modified several times and the latest version was took effect on 22 October 2012.

The JICA report “The Study on PPP Institutional Building in the Philippines, September 2013” detailed the PPP legal framework in Philippines. From this report, premises for applying PPP scheme to the proposed project are leaded and described below.

(1) Solicited / Unsolicited Project The BOT law and IRR do not allow any direct government guarantee, subsidy or equity for unsolicited projects. In addition, it is explicitly stated that grant of land from government to private sector shall be considered as direct subsidy or equity. This project is an urban transport project with low profitability and in generally, government supports are essential for the railway projects. Consequently, this project is recommended to be a solicited project in case applying PPP scheme.

(2) Government / Private Fund The IRR provides that maximum limit of government fund is 50% of total project cost. However it is not clearly defined including ODA loan, government subsidy, land cost or not. The Viability Gap Funding (VGF) is budgeted in the framework of Strategic Support Fund (SSF) and allowed providing to project cost (excluding land cost). Appropriate level of VGF is stated 30% of project cost.

(3) Formation of Special Purpose Company (SPC) In the IRR, implementing agency of public sector requests contractor of private sector to establish the SPC. Therefore, formation of SPC as the implementation organization is required in case applying PPP scheme to the proposed project.

5-19 5.3.3 Preliminary Financial Analysis to Applying PPP Scheme In this section, premises for applying PPP scheme to the proposed project are summarised. And as the preliminary financial analysis, PPP case 1 (construction cost share of public and private sector is assumed 30:70) and PPP case 2 (construction cost share of public and private sector is assumed 50:50) are set, and results from the viewpoint of private sector (SPC) are shown.

(1) Premises The preliminary financial analysis to applying PPP Scheme is carried out based on the following premises. - Proposed project is assumed to be a solicited project. Required land for the proposed project would be acquired and provided by the government. Land cost is excluded from the construction cost, and not considered in the financial analysis. - Implementation organization is assumed to be SPC. - Period of the Analysis: The period of the analysis is set at 36 years (concession) including the construction period from 2017 to 2022, and 30 years of operation from 2023 to 2052. - Exchange Rate: Exchange rate is assumed to be 1.00 US$ = 42.41 Pesos = 108.99 Yen based on the monthly average of October 2014. - Financial Price: All costs are based on constant prices in 2014. The cost for domestic products is the market price including various taxes, and for imported products is the CIF price with import duties, inland transportation cost and other fees. - Inflation: Inflation is not considered in the financial analysis.

(2) Results of Preliminary Financial Analysis Table 5-22 shows the results of preliminary financial analysis for PPP case 1 and 2.

5-20 Table 5-22 Results of Financial Analysis (PPP case 1 and 2) PPP Case 1 PPP Case 2 Share of construction cost is Share of construction cost is assumed as public:private = 30:70. assumed as public:private = 50:50. Description O&M is assumed to conduct by O&M is assumed to conduct by SPC, and revenue and expenditure SPC, and revenue and expenditure are belong to SPC. are belong to SPC. Share of Construction Cost Public: 30% Public: 50% (excluding land cost) Private: 70% Private: 50%

958.8 (million US$) 684.8 (million US$) Construction Cost for the Financial (70% of total construction cost (50% of total construction cost Analysis (private sector portion) (excluding land cost)) (excluding land cost)) O&M Organization SPC Revenue of SPC Fare revenue and non-fare revenue (same as Section 5.2.2) Expenditure of SPC O&M cost (same as Section 5.2.2) FIRR FIRR ＝8.8% FIRR ＝11.7% Source: Study Team

In the above financial analysis, FIRR of PPP case 1 (public:private = 30:70) is 8.8% and of PPP case 2 (public:private = 50:50) is 11.7%, and the results are still low level. The railway project needs large amount of initial construction cost, on the other hand, private sector requests a high profitability when the project is implemented with the PPP scheme. For the further approach, appropriate division of roles of public and private sectors should be examined. In addition to the management efforts to reduce the cost and increase the revenue, integrating the commercial development around the station and promoting the active participation of private sector is necessary.

5-21 Chapter 6 Planned Project Schedule

6.1 Project Implementation Schedule

Figure 6-1 shows the implementation schedule of proposed project. Implementation schedule is divided into following 3 main stages.

(1) Preparation Stage After completion of this study, the full blown feasibility study (FS) will be conducted. And the reports such as Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) and Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) will be prepared, which are required for the beginning of project. Reviewing those reports by relevant government authorities such as DOTC and NEDA, the project will be approved and decided to implement. After the selection of consultant, the basic design and tender will be conducted, and land acquisition, resettlement and utility relocation will be proceeded simultaneously.

(2) Construction Stage At the construction stage, construction works and procurement will begin after the preparation works and detail design. Regularly, period for running test and commissioning is required minimum 6 months.

(3) Operation Preparation Stage At the operation preparation stage, recruiting required number of staffs and prepare the organization for the project. And prepare the operation manual, management manual and work regulations etc., education and training for staffs will be conducted.

6-1 Figure 6-1 Implementation Schedule Duration 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (month )

1. Preparation Stage

(1) METI FS (this study) 6

(2) JICA full blow FS 12

(3) Preparation of EIA, RAP 12

(4) Project approval 1

(5) L/A 6

(6) Selection of consultant 6

(7) Basic design, tender, contract 6 (8) Land acquisition, resettlement, relocation 18

2. Construction Stage

(1) Preparation works 6

(2) Detail design 12 (3) Construction works, procurement 48 (4) Running test, commissioning 6

3. Operation Preparation Stage (1) Preparation of organization 9

(2) Education, training 6

4. Beginning of Commercial Operation Source: Study Team

6-2 Chapter 7 Implementing Organization

7.1 Overview of the Partner Country’s Implementation Agency

The Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) is assumed as an implementation agency for the proposed project. DOTC exercises jurisdiction over establishment of basic policy, planning and implementation of the project of the transportation and communication sectors in the Philippines. Figure 7-1 shows the organizational structure of DOTC. The DOTC has three sectional offices, sixteen attached agencies and one project management office as shown in Table 7-1.

Table 7-1 Sectoral Offices, Attached Agencies and Project Management Office of DOTC Abbreviation Full Name Sectoral Office 1-1 LTO The Land Transportation Office 1-2 LTFRB The Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board 1-3 PCG The Philippine Coastal Guard Attached Agency 2-1 OTS Office for Transportation Security Air Transportation 2-2 CAAP Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines 2-3 MIAA Manila International Airport Authority 2-4 CIAC Clark International Airport Corporation 2-5 CAB Civil Aeronautics Board 2-6 MCIAA Mactan – Cebu International Airport Authority 2-7 PADC Philippines Aerospace Development Corporation Road / Railway Transportation 2-8 TRB Toll Regulatory Board 2-9 OTC Office of Transport Cooperatives 2-10 PNR Philippines National Railways 2-11 LRTA Light Rail Transit Authority 2-12 NLRC North Luzon Railways Corporation Maritime Transportation 2-13 PPA Philippines Ports Authority 2-14 MARINA Maritime Industry Authority 2-15 CPA Cebu Ports Authority 2-16 PMMA Philippines Merchant Marine Academy Project Management Office 3-1 MRTC Metro Rail Transit Corporation Source: Study Team

7-1 Management Budget Division Budget Finance & & Finance Management Infrastructure Infrastructure Projects Service Projects Planning Assistant Secretary for Secretary Assistant Undersecretary for Undersecretary Planning Maritime Transp. Planning Div Planning MaritimeTransp. International Cooperation Desk International Cooperation Air Transp.Air Div Planning Rail Transp. Rail Div Planning Road Transp.Road Div Planning Planning Service Planning Evaluation & Evaluation Performance Reporting Reporting Div Documentation Div. Documentation Project& Monitoring Special Concerns Special Assistant Secretary for Secretary Assistant Evaluationt Service Evaluationt Project & Monitoring Assistant Secretary Secretary Assistant Project Management Project UndersecretaryProject for Unified Unified Project ControlDivision Design Div Design Management Office Management Documentation & & Documentation Eng'g Archi & Implementation and Special Concerns Specialand Implementation Project Service Management Public InformationOffice Public GOCCS Action Center Action Treasury Division Treasury Accounting Division Accounting All Planning Concerns Planning All Service Service SECRETARY Comptrollership Operations Monitoring Operations ATTACHED AGENCIES ATTACHED and Special Concerns Special and All Project ImplementationProject All Internal Audit Office Internal (LTO, LTFRB) InformationDiv. Systems ComputerDiv. Systems SECTORAL OFFICES SECTORAL Management Administration Assistant Secretary Assistant Information Service Information Figure 7-1 7-1 Figure DOTC of Structure Organizational Undersecretary for Operations for Undersecretary DOTC CARAGA DOTC All Operational Concerns Operational All Dev't Div. Dev't Gen. ServicesDiv. Gen. Human Human Resource Personnel Division Personnel DOTC CAR DOTC Administrative Service All Legal and and LegalAll Procurement Concerns Procurement DOTC-CO Disposal Div. Disposal Property Utilization Utilization & Property Supply Division Procurment Division Procurment Procurement Property MgtProperty Service Procurement, Supply & Supply Procurement, Assistant SecretaryAssistant Source: “Study on Railway Strategy for Clark-Metro Manila for the Greater Capital Region in the Republic of the Philippines”, JICA 2013 2013 JICA Philippines”, the of Republic in the Region Capital Greater the for Manila Clark-Metro for Strategy Railway on “Study Source: Division Division Franchising Review Staff Review Legal Affairs & & Affairs Legal Undersecretary for Undersecretary Legal Legislative & Issuances & Legislative Documentation Research Division Research Contract Review & & Review Contract Investigation & Adjucation & Adjucation Investigation Legal Sevice Legal forAffairs Legal Assistant Secretary Secretary Assistant ISLES

7-2 7.2 Partner Country’s Project Implementation Organization

As described in Section 3.4.8, study team suggests creating an organization such as Project Management Unit (PMU) that should be in charge of the actual implementation of the project and liaison with consultant, contractors and other concerned stakeholders. PMU should be an interim or final organization under the authority of DOTC for the implementation of this project up to establishment of EWRC. During the planning/design stage of the project implementation, the hardware plan for the railway is an important matter that must be decided based on the foreseeable operation system. Therefore, the entity that will carry out this task is required.

Generally, in an urban railway system, a local government authority independently carries out facility planning based on the urban transport policies, the operation structure and the standards of provided services. In order to implement this, the EWRC must be established prior to the planning/design stage of the proposed route in this study, or the main planning/design body is set up and a system is put into place for possible discussion by members who can fulfil the primary role of the EWRC in the future. Therefore, it is firmly suggested in order to develop the EWRC and the preparatory organization (PMU) should be established as soon as possible.

On the other hand, in case the establishment of the EWRC is infeasible in the near time prior to the commencement of implementation, that DOTC creates a PMU management office under its supervision. The PMU management office entity shall be in charge of implementing this project during the construction stage and could be in the long term vision the core entity for the EWRC in the future. The PMU management office can be created from the members of the sectorial and attached agencies that belong to the DOTC such as LRTA, MRT3, PNR, NLRC, and etc. These members shall work as independently from their agencies that they transferred from. This is important to eliminate any possible legal conflict or overlapping authorities may happen between the agencies. Furthermore, study team does not recommend that LRTA, MRT3, PNR, or NLRC be in charge of this implementation, individually. This is because the aforementioned agencies do not have a sufficient experience in railway transit system project with rubber tires and to eliminate any possible legal conflict or overlapping authority may happen in the future as well.

Currently, there is no a specific supervisory and regulatory agency in the Republic of Philippines to set the necessary regulations, standards and guidelines for design, leasing rights, safety, security and serviceability, etc. and supervise the work of all existing and future railway operators as well. Basically, the hierarchy structure of railway system should be in any country consists of three organizational levels that could be created and applied for current and future planned to implement new railway transit system projects in Philippines, to wit: First Level: Supervisory and regulatory agency or authority Second Level: Implementation including the Operation and Maintenance (O&M) Third Level: Maintenance Provider

7-3 It is necessary to establish a supervisory and regulatory agency/authority that is in charge of setting the necessary standards, roles, regulation and guidelines, and controlling the entire railway sector. Furthermore, considering the necessity to enhance the liability and the professionalism of the railway operators and maintenance providers, such an agency is required so that the government of Philippines through this agency can, for example, carry out a transparent and liable investigation for any railway accident may happen the any operator by superior agency like the supervisory and regulatory authority instead of the current situation where each operator carries out its internal investigation for the accident that is responsible of it. For the further approach, organizational structure for the railway sector in the Philippines should be examined.

7-4 Chapter 8 Technical Advantages of Japanese Company

8.1 Global Competitiveness and Recognition of Japanese Industries in the Target Project (by Facilities, Products and Services)

In this study, the AGT system is recommended as the most suitable system for the proposed route. Among the medium capacity transportation systems, it is assumed that BRT, monorail, elevated LRT and conventional railway are competitors to AGT. However as stated in the Section “3.3.3 System Selection” the AGT was considered to be able to perform better with a competitive edge. Especially from a technical aspect, the flexibility of AGT’s route alignment (minimum curve radius, maximum gradient) is higher than the elevated LRT, monorail and conventional railway allows site acquisitions to be kept at a minimum. It also contributes to the improvement of convenience by consolidating a town by closely placing commercial facilities near the station. In addition, even though there is a need to build an underground tunnel at the proposed route, the connection from elevated section to underground section can be shortened and construction cost becomes comparatively lower, which prevents the fragmentation of the urban district as much as possible.

The competitors in the AGT system industry are Bombardier Inc. and Siemens (). Japanese company has a strong position in its price competitiveness in international biddings. In the Asian region, Siemens have had won one bidding each in and South Korea but in recent years, it has brought its focus to . Bombardier Inc. have a delivery record in ’s Bukit Panjang line, but applying are from the Westinghouse era. Also Bombardier Inc. have a delivery record in Singapore’s Changi airport but for a renewal tender, not counting the disadvantageous conditions behind it, Japanese company took it up and later on accepted an expansion work tender with them too. In addition, during the Macao LRT international bidding for a new construction tender, Bombardier Inc., Siemens and Japanese company competed and Japanese company emerged as the winning bidder for surpassing the other two companies in quality and price aspects. For that, Japanese company developed train cars that showed speed enhancement by changing the shape of the train car’s head and carriage so that the trains can not only serve the urban district but also expand its services to the suburbs.

From the above, we can see that the AGT systems provides Japanese industries the competitive edge in the international scene and it shows sufficient potential in winning tenders.

8-1 8.2 Description and Price of the Main Equipment Proposed to be Procured from Japan

The equipment that will be procured from Japan for this project (to install the AGT system) is shown in Table 8-1 below. We estimate that the train cars and E&M (power supply, signal and telecommunications, AFC, rail yard installations) would take up more than 50% of the total construction costs.

Table 8-1 Proposed Procurement of Equipment from Japan Equipment Amount (million Yen) Procurement ratio (%) Train cars 33,480 30.5 Power supply installations 11,810 10.8 Signal and telecommunication installations 11,010 10.0 AFC 1,390 1.3 Rail yard installations 700 0.6 Total 58,390 53.2 Total construction costs 109,630 100.0 *The train cars costs already includes additional investments. The total construction costs already includes site acquisition costs. Source: Study Team

8.3 Necessary Steps in Promoting Japanese Companies’ Efforts in International Biddings

The following measures are the necessary steps to help promote our country’s industries’ efforts in international biddings. ・Besides conducting PR campaigns based on sales and marketing observations, we will utilize training and key figure sessions set up by METI and JICA and have related personnel from DOTC to understand the AGT system more. ・The STEP yen loans will aid us in our international bidding efforts while meeting the challenges of competing with overseas bidders. ・Our Japanese industries guarantee the sustainability of proposed maintenance services and operations that focuses on quality and technological competence. ・Create partnerships with local industries that are familiar with the surroundings.

8-2