Volcanic winter: high dependence on wind, solar and pumped storage may lead to collapse of civil society.

At various points in history, major volcanic eruptions have given rise to ash and sulphur dioxide clouds that have covered much of Earth and which have greatly reduced solar energy reaching the ground.

Examples: Laki volcano in Iceland, in 1783 (1). Mt Tambora, Indonesia, 1815, considered to the cause of the 1816 “year without a summer (2). Krakatoa, Indonesia, 1883 (3).

Each of these caused a great reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the ground, for a year or so. Non-nuclear, non-carbon energy sources rely almost exclusively on the storage and distribution of wind and solar power. After such an event it would be impossible to predict the effect on wind power, and storages of solar power would probably last only a matter of days. The potential exists for collapse of civil society due to an almost complete breakdown of electricity systems following the widespread failure of solar panels to generate electricity.

Prudent planning for such events, which cannot be predicted, must include a substantial proportion of electricity generation by nuclear power.

References:

1. Thordarson T, Self S. Atmospheric and environmental effects of the 1783-1784 Laki eruption: A review and reassessment. J Geophys Res-Atmos 2003; 108: 29. 2. Oppenheimer C. Climatic, environmental and human consequences of the largest known historic eruption: Tambora volcano (Indonesia) 1815. Prog Phys Geogr 2003; 27: 230-259. 3. Gleckler PJ, AchutaRao K, Gregory JM, Santer BD, Taylor KE, Wigley TML. Krakatoa lives: The effect of volcanic eruptions on ocean heat content and thermal expansion. Geophys Res Lett 2006; 33: 5.

Peter Speck, PhD FASM. Associate Professor, College of Science and Engineering, Flinders University. Bedford Park, South Australia.

Secretary, Australasian Virology Society.