DOCSLIB.ORG

Climate Change and the Great Plague Pandemics of History: Causal Link Between Global Climate Fluctuations and Yersinia Pestis Contagion?

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Climate Change and the Great Plague Pandemics of History: Causal Link Between Global Climate Fluctuations and Yersinia Pestis Contagion? University of New Orleans ScholarWorks@UNO University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations Dissertations and Theses 12-15-2007 Climate Change and the Great Plague Pandemics of History: Causal Link between Global Climate Fluctuations and Yersinia Pestis Contagion? Richard Christian Bilich University of New Orleans Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.uno.edu/td Recommended Citation Bilich, Richard Christian, "Climate Change and the Great Plague Pandemics of History: Causal Link between Global Climate Fluctuations and Yersinia Pestis Contagion?" (2007). University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations. 632. https://scholarworks.uno.edu/td/632 This Thesis is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by ScholarWorks@UNO with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Thesis in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights- holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/or on the work itself. This Thesis has been accepted for inclusion in University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UNO. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Climate Change and the Great Plague Pandemics of History: Causal Link between Global Climate Fluctuations and Yersinia Pestis Contagion? A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the University of New Orleans in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of: Master of Arts in History By Richard Christian Bilich B.A. Tulane University, 2005 December, 2007 Table of Contents Abstract.............................................................................................................................. iv Introduction..........................................................................................................................1 The Climatic Anomaly of 535-536 A.D. .............................................................................5 Probable Causes of Climate Event and Incidence of Justinian’s Plague.............................8 The Disappearance of the Plague – The Medieval Warm Period......................................14 The Little Ice Age ..............................................................................................................16 The Evidence .........................................................................................................17 The Causes of the Little Ice Age............................................................................19 Did the Little Ice Age Create Conditions Ideal For the Black Death? ..............................24 The Second Disappearance of the Plague..........................................................................28 Conclusion .........................................................................................................................31 Bibliography ......................................................................................................................34 Vita.....................................................................................................................................37 ii Acknowledgments This thesis is dedicated to my father, Richard Bilich Jr., for instilling a lifelong love of history in me from childhood and for his considerable intellectual insights that have given me perspective my whole life. I would like to acknowledge my children, Alexandria Nicole and Richard Jesse, who have motivated me to become better in all facets of my life. I would also like to thank Lisa M. Bilich for her patience and unselfish shouldering our parental responsibilities through many long years spent on academic endeavors that have culminated in the writing of this thesis. I could not have done it without you. Lastly, I would like to acknowledge my grandmother, the late Betty L. Bilich, for elucidating the fact that history lives forever and as such is truly the study of the present state of mankind. I would like to express my gratitude to those who have helped in the writing of this thesis. I am particularly indebted to Dr. Jeffrey Wilson for initially spurring an interest in the emergent field of environmental history as well as for his advice, support, and direction in completion of this project. Additional thanks are due to Dr. Mary Mitchell and Dr. Gunter Bischof for their time and insight throughout my academic career at the University of New Orleans. iii Abstract The two great bubonic plague outbreaks of history, Justinian’s Plague and the Black Death were responsible for the deaths of over one hundred million individuals across Eurasia and Africa. Both occurrences of the plague coincided with climatic shifts that are well documented by both literary and physical evidence. This thesis explores the possibility that both Justinian’s Plague and the Black Death were precipitated by climatic shifts preceding their respective eras and that these changes also contributed to disappearance of each pandemic. A scientific analysis investigating the climatic changes including the anomalous weather of 535-536 A.D., the Medieval Warm Period, and the Little Ice Age are correlated with literary evidence recording the transmission and dormancy sequence of the plague. Although distinct differences exist between the origins of climate change in the periods preceding each plague, the effects of such changes clearly resulted in conditions ideal for the resulting pandemics. iv Introduction “During these times there was a pestilence, by which the whole human race came near to being annihilated. Now in the case of all other scourges sent from heaven some explanation of a cause might be given by daring men, such as the many theories propounded by those who are clever in these matters, for they love to conjure up causes which are absolutely incomprehensible to man…But for this calamity, it is quite impossible either to express in words or to conceive in thought any explanation, except indeed to refer it to God. - Procopius, History of the Wars, II, xxii “Climate change will have wide-ranging and mostly damaging impacts on human health. There have been periods of uncontrollable waves of disease that radically altered human civilization in the past, such as when Europe’s population was devastated by bubonic plague in the Middle Ages. Now a warming climate, compounded by widespread ecological changes, may be stimulating wide-scale changes in disease patterns” - Dr Paul Epstein of the Centre for Health and Global Environment Modern society is quite familiar with epidemic disease. In this age various forms of media relay constant information deemed essential to public health and warn of deadly outbreaks of HIV, SARS, Avian Influenza, and Ebola. These terrifying diseases force humanity to confront the grim reality that microscopic bacteria and viruses continue to hold sway over the human condition and can alter an entire society in a matter of weeks. Although modern medicine has tended to give humanity a false sense of security, epidemic diseases have in the past and will continue to alter the lives of human beings. Although the diseases mentioned above have certainly taken many lives and affected the human condition in the modern era, their impact pales in comparison to the two greatest pandemics ever experienced by man, Justinian’s Plague and the Black Death. Together these pandemics were responsible for the death of at least one hundred million people, toppled several established civilizations, and terrorized mankind for centuries before vanishing almost as quickly as it had originated. The biological identity of the 1 plague and its transmission vectors were a medical mystery until the 20th century and the causes behind its prolific spread during both pandemics have never been fully explained. The Bubonic or Black plague has been a significant natural selective force on human populations throughout the last two millenia of recorded history. It seems likely that Yersinia pestis, the bacteria responsible for the plague, has been associated with the human condition on some level since the rise of agriculture and the subsequent domestication of animals. In fact, plague expert Charles Gregg believes that plague may have affected Homo erectus as proto- humans began hunting plague-ridden game that made for a tempting and easy meal. Gregg believes the disease did not become epidemic until the rise of agriculture brought about large human settlements which disrupted natural rodent populations where the plague is endemic.1 Reservoirs of the plague are common amongst rodent populations in Asia and Africa, where natural hosts such as the gerbil carry the Yersinia pestis bacillus, yet are immune to it. Occasionally environmental exigencies will necessitate these wild rodents coming into to close proximity to human beings and their livestock.2 Plague outbreaks appear to be related to increased abundance of rodents and other mammals that serve as hosts for the fleas that then transmit the disease to humans.3 A search for the first link in the chain of causation that precipitated the two great bubonic plague pandemics, Justinian’s Plague (542AD-750AD) and the Black Death (1347AD- early 1700’sAD) must begin with isolating occurrences that led to large scale interaction between human communities and foraging rodent populations hosting the Xenopsylla cheopis flea carrying the
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Bibliographic Review on the Historical Memory of Previous
    REVISIONES Bibliographic review on the historical memory of previous pandemics in nursing reviews on COVID-19: a secularly documented reality Revisión bibliográfica sobre la memoria histórica de pandemias anteriores en revisiones de enfermería sobre COVID-19: una realidad secularmente documentada Joaquín León Molina1 M. Fuensanta Hellín Gil1 Eva Abad Corpa2 1 Nurse Hospital Clínico Universitario Virgen de la Arrixaca de Murcia; Advanced Nursing Care Group of the Murcian Institute of Biosanitary Research Arrixaca. Murcia. Spain. 2 Associate nurse, Hospital General Universitario Reina Sofía de Murcia; Contracted Professor PhD linked University of Murcia. Advanced Nursing Care Group of the Murcian Institute of Biosanitary Research Arrixaca. Murcia. Spain. https://doi.org/10.6018/eglobal.456511 Received: 17/11/2020 Accepted: 10/01/2021 ABSTRACT: Introduction: Reviews for COVID-19 should reflect historical antecedents from previous pandemics. Objective: We plan to map the content of recent reviews in the nursing area on COVID-19 to see if it refers to health crises due to epidemics and infectious diseases. Methodology: Descriptive narrative review. The Science Web, PubMed and Lilacs were consulted to identify the reviews; The content of the documents was consulted to detect the presence of descriptors and terms related to pandemics prior to the 21st century of humanity, taking into account the inclusion criteria and objectives of the study. Results: Relevant reviews were found only in 11 documents of the 192 identified. Conclusions: There may be reluctance to use documentation published more than a century ago; However, it would be advisable not to lose the historical memory of pandemic crises that humanity has suffered for millennia Key words: Pandemics; Epidemics; History; Ancient History.
    [Show full text]
  • The Justinianic Plague's Origins and Consequences
    The Justinianic plague’s origins and consequences Georgiana Bianca Constantin1, Ionuţ Căluian2 1Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, Dunarea de Jos University Galati, Romania 2Valahia University Targoviste, Romania Corresponding author: Georgiana Bianca Constantin Abstract The bubonic plague is an extremely old disease (apparentely from the late Neolitic era). The so-called “Justinianic plague”of the sixth century was the first well-attested outbreak of bubonic plague in the history of the Mediterranean world. It was thought that the Justinianic Plague, along with barbarian invasions, contributed directly to the so-called “Fall of the Roman Empire.” Keywords: plague, pandemics, history Introduction The bubonic plague is an extremely old disease, and scientists have detected the DNA of the pathogen that causes it—the bacterium Yersinia pestis—in the remains of late Neolithic era [1]. The limited details in historical texts have led scholars to question whether the causative agent of Justinianic Plague was truly Yersinia pestis, a debate that was only resolved recently through ancient DNA analysis [2-4]. Three major plague epidemics have been recorded worldwide so far: the “Justinian” plague in the 6th century, the “Black Death” in the 14th century and the recent 20th century pandemic [5]. The plague first hit cities in the southeastern Mediterranean, and moved swiftly through the Levant to the imperial capital of Constantinople. It seems that the plague arrived in Constantinople in 542 CE and the outbreak continued to sweep throughout the Mediterranean world for another 225 years, finally disappearing in 750 CE [1,6]. It is difficult to approximate the overall mortality rate due to the 542 plague, because of the lack of demographical data.
    [Show full text]
  • The Epidemic of Justinian (Ad 542): a Prelude to the Middle Ages 1. Introduction
    Acta Theologica Supplementum 7 2005 THE EPIDEMIC OF JUSTINIAN (AD 542): A PRELUDE TO THE MIDDLE AGES ABSTRACT The epidemic that struck Constantinople and the surrounding countries during the reign of Justinian in the middle of the 6th century, was the first documented pan- demic in history. It marked the beginning of plague as a nosological problem that would afflict the world until the 21st century. The symptoms of the disease, as de- scribed by various contemporary writers (especially the historian and confidant of the emperor, Procopius, and the two church historians, John of Ephesus and Euagrius), are discussed. There is little doubt that the disease was the plague. The most com- mon form in which it manifested was bubonic plague, which is spread by infected fleas and is not directly contagious from patient to patient. There is also evidence of septicaemic plague and possibly even pneumonic plague. The disastrous effects of the plague were described vividly by contemporary writers. A major problem was to find ways to dispose of infected corpses. It is estimated that about one third of the popu- lation died — a figure comparable to the death rate during the Black Death in the Middle Ages. Famine and inflation, the depopulation of the countryside, and a cri- tical manpower shortage in the army were further effects which all contributed to bringing to a premature end Justinian’s attempt to restore the grandeur of the Roman empire, and precipitating the advent of the Middle Ages. 1. INTRODUCTION The epidemic which devastated Constantinople in the 6th century during the reign of Justinian formed part of the first genuine pandemic in history to be documented.
    [Show full text]
  • 1 I Vestigati G Late Holoce E Orth Atla Tic Climate
    S. Gaurin – dissertation prospectus UMass Geosciences IVESTIGATIG LATE HOLOCEE ORTH ATLATIC CLIMATE VARIABILITY THROUGH SPELEOTHEM PALEOPROXY AD HISTORICAL WEATHER DATA FROM BERMUDA INTRODUCTION Recent trends in hurricane frequency and intensity, a continually growing coastal population, and the presence of wide-reaching climatic patterns all underscore the importance of understanding changes in North Atlantic climate. Numerous paleoclimate studies have identified the North Atlantic as a region of importance in regulating global climate through meridional overturning circulation and other processes. The study proposed herein is focused on using stable isotope data from Bermuda speleothem calcium carbonate to help reconstruct dominant low-frequency modes of North Atlantic climate variability through the mid-Holocene (the last several thousand years). This period is replete with climate changes, from the warm hypsithermal peak of ~6000 years ago, followed by the slow overall cooling of the neoglacial, punctuated by rapid change “events” and century-scale periods like the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. Recent warming from the start of the 20 th century to the present has been attributed largely to the build-up of atmospheric greenhouse gases (Mann et al., 1998, 1999) and may herald the beginning of a possibly rapid transition to a new, warmer climate regime. The more we learn about the natural workings of the climate system on time scales of decades to centuries, which are of particular relevance as they are on the scale of a human lifetime, the better prepared we can be for warming-induced changes, some of which may already be afoot, such as the possibility that warmer ocean temperatures are increasing hurricane frequency (Goldenberg et al., 2001; Knight et al., 2006) or intensity (Knutson and Tuleya, 2004).
    [Show full text]
  • Pandemics: a Very Short Introduction VERY SHORT INTRODUCTIONS Are for Anyone Wanting a Stimulating and Accessible Way Into a New Subject
    Pandemics: A Very Short Introduction VERY SHORT INTRODUCTIONS are for anyone wanting a stimulating and accessible way into a new subject. They are written by experts, and have been translated into more than 40 different languages. The series began in 1995, and now covers a wide variety of topics in every discipline. The VSI library now contains over 450 volumes—a Very Short Introduction to everything from Indian philosophy to psychology and American history and relativity—and continues to grow in every subject area. Very Short Introductions available now: ACCOUNTING Christopher Nobes ANAESTHESIA Aidan O’Donnell ADOLESCENCE Peter K. Smith ANARCHISM Colin Ward ADVERTISING Winston Fletcher ANCIENT ASSYRIA Karen Radner AFRICAN AMERICAN RELIGION ANCIENT EGYPT Ian Shaw Eddie S. Glaude Jr ANCIENT EGYPTIAN ART AND AFRICAN HISTORY John Parker and ARCHITECTURE Christina Riggs Richard Rathbone ANCIENT GREECE Paul Cartledge AFRICAN RELIGIONS Jacob K. Olupona THE ANCIENT NEAR EAST AGNOSTICISM Robin Le Poidevin Amanda H. Podany AGRICULTURE Paul Brassley and ANCIENT PHILOSOPHY Julia Annas Richard Soffe ANCIENT WARFARE ALEXANDER THE GREAT Harry Sidebottom Hugh Bowden ANGELS David Albert Jones ALGEBRA Peter M. Higgins ANGLICANISM Mark Chapman AMERICAN HISTORY Paul S. Boyer THE ANGLO-SAXON AGE AMERICAN IMMIGRATION John Blair David A. Gerber THE ANIMAL KINGDOM AMERICAN LEGAL HISTORY Peter Holland G. Edward White ANIMAL RIGHTS David DeGrazia AMERICAN POLITICAL HISTORY THE ANTARCTIC Klaus Dodds Donald Critchlow ANTISEMITISM Steven Beller AMERICAN POLITICAL PARTIES ANXIETY Daniel Freeman and AND ELECTIONS L. Sandy Maisel Jason Freeman AMERICAN POLITICS THE APOCRYPHAL GOSPELS Richard M. Valelly Paul Foster THE AMERICAN PRESIDENCY ARCHAEOLOGY Paul Bahn Charles O.
    [Show full text]
  • Global Catastrophic Risks 2016
    Global Challenges Foundation Global Catastrophic Risks 2016 © Global Challenges Foundation/Global Priorities Project 2016 GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS 2016 THE GLOBAL CHALLENGES FOUNDATION works to raise awareness of the The views expressed in this report are those of the authors. Their Global Catastrophic Risks. Primarily focused on climate change, other en- statements are not necessarily endorsed by the affiliated organisations. vironmental degradation and politically motivated violence as well as how these threats are linked to poverty and rapid population growth. Against this Authors: background, the Foundation also works to both identify and stimulate the Owen Cotton-Barratt*† development of good proposals for a management model – a global gover- Sebastian Farquhar* nance – able to decrease – and at best eliminate – these risks. John Halstead* Stefan Schubert* THE GLOBAL PRIORITIES PROJECT helps decision-makers effectively prior- Andrew Snyder-Beattie† itise ways to do good. We achieve his both by advising decision-makers on programme evaluation methodology and by encouraging specific policies. We * = The Global Priorities Project are a collaboration between the Centre for Effective Altruism and the Future † = The Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford of Humanity Institute, part of the University of Oxford. Graphic design: Accomplice/Elinor Hägg Global Challenges Foundation in association with 4 Global Catastrophic Risks 2016 Global Catastrophic Risks 2016 5 Contents Definition: Global Foreword 8 Introduction 10 Catastrophic Risk Executive summary 12 1. An introduction to global catastrophic risks 20 – risk of events or 2. What are the most important global catastrophic risks? 28 Catastrophic climate change 30 processes that would Nuclear war 36 Natural pandemics 42 Exogenous risks 46 lead to the deaths of Emerging risks 52 Other risks and unknown risks 64 Our assessment of the risks 66 approximately a tenth of 3.
    [Show full text]
  • Dealing with the Reality NORTHERN IRELAND ENVIRONMENT LINK CONFERENCE REPORT Foreword
    Conference Proceedings April 2009 Climate Change: Dealing with the Reality NORTHERN IRELAND ENVIRONMENT LINK CONFERENCE REPORT Foreword Scientific and international political opinion agree that climate change is happening, that it is largely caused by human activities and that the implications are far ranging and very serious. Although there are uncertainties around the speed of change, the severity of that change and the nature and extent of its impacts, we cannot delay action to address the issues. An internationally renowned group of scientists assembled in W5 (Odyssey Complex), Belfast for Climate Change: Dealing with the Reality on 20th January 2009 to discuss the issues; this document is a summary of their thoughts. There are opportunities for Northern Ireland to be in the vanguard of both adaptation and mitigation technologies, bringing strong economic benefits to local companies. There are also opportunities to adopt policies and programmes that address the social and economic consequences of climate change while bringing benefits to Northern Ireland’s citizens. Grasping these opportunities requires strong and mature political leadership and offers Northern Ireland an opportunity to establish itself as a serious international leader. Climate change is just one of the many challenges facing Northern Ireland at this time and therefore cannot be dealt with in isolation. It provides a context within which specific issues — such as the increasing role of local authorities, tackling waste, changes in agriculture and the economic recession — can be better understood and more effectively addressed. Acknowledgements This report was compiled and designed by David McCann, and edited by David McCann and Sue Christie. We would like to thank all of the speakers at the conference both for the time and effort they put into producing their presentations and for writing their subsequent articles.
    [Show full text]
  • Life and Afterlife of the First Plague Pandemic
    1 Life and Afterlife of the First Plague Pandemic Lester K. Little In the summer of 541 AD a deadly infectious disease broke out in the Egyptian port city of Pelusium, located on the eastern edge of the Nile delta. It quickly spread eastward along the coast to Gaza and westward to Alexandria. By the following spring it had found its way to Constantino- ple, capital of the Roman Empire. Syria, Anatolia, Greece, Italy, Gaul, Iberia, and North Africa: none of the lands bordering the Mediterranean escaped it. Here and there, it followed river valleys or overland routes and thus penetrated far into the interior, reaching, for example, as far east as Persia or as far north, after another sea-crossing, as the British Isles.1 The disease remained virulent in these lands for slighty more than two centuries, although it never settled anywhere for long. Instead, it came and went, and as is frequently the case with unwelcome visitors, its appearances were unannounced. Overall, there was not a decade in the course of those two centuries when it was not inflicting death somewhere in the Mediterranean region. In those places where it appeared several times, the intervals between recurrences ranged from about six to twenty years. And then, in the middle of the eighth century, it vanished with as little ceremony as when it first arrived.2 Thus did bubonic plague make its first appearance on the world his- torical scene. Diagnosis of historical illnesses on the basis of descriptions in ancient texts can rarely be made with compelling certainty because all infectious diseases involve fever and the other symptoms tend not to be exclusive to particular diseases.
    [Show full text]
  • Catastrophism, Natural Disasters, and Cultural Change John Grattan and Robin Torrence
    Theme: Archaeology and the Environment Symposium 017/1 Grattan & Torrence Symposium: Catastrophism, Natural Disasters, and Cultural Change John Grattan and Robin Torrence The aim of this session is to examine both the short and long-term consequences of extreme natural events on patterns of cultural change. Archaeological theory about the pace and character of cultural change generally focuses on processes which are internally generated and which unfold slowly through time. Since environmental determinism has fallen out of favour, theories about social evolution pay very little attention to external, nonhuman factors nor to random factors. Little or no consideration has been given to the effects of one-off natural disasters. In contrast, a number of theoretical perspectives involving catastrophism, chaos, punctuated evolution, etc. provide a range of alternative views that focus on the effects of random events. One of the goals of the symposium is to assess the value of these theories for explaining the impacts of natural disasters on cultural change. Through extended discussions following short presentations of case studies representing a very broad coverage in spatial, chronological and cultural terms, the participants will consider a range of general questions. How and in what ways do natural hazards affect human societies? Have natural disasters played an important role in human evolution? Do natural disasters have only short-term, limited effects or should they play an important role within general theories about cultural change and
    [Show full text]
  • How to Stop a Supervolcano
    HOW TO STOP A SUPERVOLCANO [VIDEO TRANSCRIPT] In 1816, red snow fell in Maryland. And brown snow. And blue snow.1 Which was kind of weird. Even weirder? It was May. Parts of Pennsylvania were covered in half an inch of ice … in July.2 1816 was known as “The Year Without a Summer.” And the phenomenon wasn’t limited to the U.S. In fact, the reason Americans were shivering in the middle of the year … had to do with something that happened half a world away. The darkened, hazy skies produced by “The Year Without a Summer” led to a series of famous paintings by the likes of J.M.W. Turner, Caspar David Friedrich, and John Crome. Modern audiences often believe that the use of lighting in these works is stylized, not realizing that it was a reflection of the actual conditions at the time. Another artistic legacy of the year without a summer: Mary Shelley and her summer vacation companions at Lake Geneva were forced indoors, where they entertained each other by coming up with horror stories. Shelley’s contribution eventually became Frankenstein. The eruption of the volcano at Mount Tambora in Indonesia had released a massive cloud of ash and sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. As a result, temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere plummeted. Crops failed and livestock died en masse. Between the eruption itself, the ensuing tsunamis, and the resulting starvation, approximately 92,000 people died.3 It is widely regarded as the worst volcanic eruption in recorded history. Here’s the good news: you didn’t have to live through it.
    [Show full text]
  • On the Climate History of Chaco Canyon
    UC San Diego Scripps Institution of Oceanography Technical Report Title On the Climate History of Chaco Canyon Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/1qv786mc Author Berger, Wolfgang H. Publication Date 2009-04-01 eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California ON THE CLIMATE HISTORY OF CHACO CANYON W.H. Berger, Ph.D. Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego Notes on Chaco Canyon history in connection with the presentation “Drought Cycles in Anasazi Land – Sun, Moon, and ocean oscillations,” at the PACLIM Conference in Asilomar, California, in April 2009. On the Involvement of the Sun in Chaco Canyon Climate History Tree-ring research since A.E. Douglass and E. Schulman has brought great benefits to the archaeology of the Southwest. It has become possible to reconstruct the climate narrative in some detail. The appropriate field of study is termed “dendroclimatology,” which is focused on the information contained in the growth of a given set of trees. The term harks back to the intent of the pioneer, the solar astronomer Douglass, who worked early in the 20th century. Since that time the study of tree rings has become a respected branch of Earth Sciences, with well-defined objects and methods (Hughes et al., 1982; Fritts, 1991). Douglass spent great efforts on documenting a role for the sun in climate change. Studies relating climate to solar variation have multiplied since. As yet, a focus on solar activity encounters much skepticism among climate scientists (see, e.g., Hoyt and Schatten, 1997). The expert’s skepticism has several causes.
    [Show full text]
  • Astronomical Troubles for the Astronomical Hypothesis of Ice Ages
    Overviews Astronomical troubles for the astronomical hypothesis of ice ages Michael J. Oard The astronomical theory of ice ages based on the Milankovitch mechanism has become the ruling paradigm of Pleistocene paleoclimatology. It is even used to date sedimentation during the pre-Pleistocene period. However, there is little, if any, physical basis behind it. It does not provide a mechanism for the sudden onset of the ice- age cycle at 2.7 Ma, nor why the 41-kyr tilt cycle predominated between 2.7 and 0.9 Ma, why it shifted to the 100-kyr cycle at 0.9 Ma, how the very weak 100-kyr eccentricity cycle could even affect solar radiation, and why such weak changes in solar radiation could produce such dramatic climate changes as ice ages. The Milankovitch hypothesis was supposedly ‘proved’ by statistical matches with deep-sea cores obtained in the 1950s through to the 1970s. However, cores require very accurate dating, which was beyond the state of the art back then. The fact that the Milankovitch hypothesis is so strongly believed attested more to the reinforcement syndrome. he astronomical theory of the ice ages, also called the the theory, including deep-sea cores, ice cores, pollen cores TMilankovitch theory, has swept the climate community and lake sediment cores. Scientists have become so certain during the past 40 years. It is the new paleoclimate paradigm of the theory that they have ‘tuned’ or modified climatic for multiple ice ages repeating at regular intervals during data sets to the Milankovitch cycles. Needless to say, this the past 2.7 Ma of uniformitarian time.
    [Show full text]