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Exploring the Effect of Aerosols on the Arabian Peninsula's Changing Exploring the Effect of Aerosols on the Arabian Peninsula’s Changing Climate Dr Georgiy Stenchikov EXPLORING THE EFFECT OF AEROSOLS ON THE ARABIAN PENINSULA’S CHANGING CLIMATE Today, the Arabian Peninsula already faces a more daunting array of environmental challenges than most other regions on Earth. Yet as the climate changes, it is now expected to feel these adverse effects even more strongly in the coming decades. Using the latest modelling techniques, combined with ground-based observations, Dr Georgiy Stenchikov at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia aims to make better predictions of how these changes will unfold. His work now provides critical guidance on how governments in the region should prepare for future shifts in climate and air quality. weather events, such as heat waves, sandstorms and flash floods, are now being felt increasingly strongly. As these changes have unfolded, the population of Saudi Arabia alone has exploded from just 4 to 34 million in only half a century. Combined with rapid social and economic development, and urbanisation in the region, these effects are now imposing an unprecedented strain on the region’s water resources, agriculture, air quality, The Arabian Peninsula’s Climate with greenhouse gas emissions, and natural ecosystems. desertification, urbanisation, and The Arabian Peninsula is well known shrinking vegetation cover. This effect A Need for Better Predictions for its harsh natural environments. Not is strongly influenced by an abundance only are large swathes of the region of particulates including sand, dust and To tackle these mounting challenges, covered in inhospitable desert; it is also anthropogenic pollutants suspended in detailed evaluations of changes in the one of the most water-scarce regions on the air – together named ‘aerosols’. Arabian Peninsula’s climate and air Earth, with many communities relying quality have never been more critical. on the desalination of seawater for their Over the past three decades, both Ideally, a robust basis for supporting survival. On top of this, the peninsula’s observations and computer simulations environmental policy in this way climate is highly sensitive to a have shown that the Arabian Peninsula’s would enable regional, national and phenomenon named ‘radiative forcing’. average temperature has increased international policymakers to carry out Radiative forcing describes the change by about 0.5°C per decade exceeding long-term planning and sustainable in Earth’s energy balance (the difference almost twice the trend observed in developments, and to utilise renewable between the sunlight absorbed by the northern hemisphere as a whole. energy more effectively. This would Earth, and the infra-red light radiated This means that effects including require advanced, science-based back into space), which is associated an increasing frequency of extreme decision making from governments as WWW.SCIENTIA.GLOBAL such an event had ever occurred, vast quantities of smoke from urban and forest fires, as well as dust from ground bursts, would have been injected up into the atmosphere, triggering devastating rapid drops in temperature, precipitation, and sunlight. Together known as ‘nuclear winter’, these effects were widely studied through simulations at the time, producing predictions of a brief yet devastating shift in the Earth’s climate. Dr Stenchikov and his colleague Dr Aleksandrov, then at the Computer Center of the USSR Academy of they decide how to mitigate and adapt Forecasting WRF model with chemistry Sciences, conducted the first general to climate change, with judgements and aerosol module (WRF-Chem). The circulation model simulation of climate centred around the outcomes of robust main shortcoming of regional climate perturbations following the hypothetical observations and predictive models. models is that without considering nuclear war based on TTAPS (group how the oceans are influenced by of American Scientists Turco, Toon, Twenty to thirty years ago, there the atmosphere, and vice versa, their Ackerman Polack, and Sagan) scenarios. were significant shortcomings in the individual prediction abilities are techniques used by researchers to limited. Later on, Dr Stenchikov was involved predict these changes, creating critical in research exploring the climate oversights in existing climate predictions To alleviate this issue, Dr Stenchikov effects of volcanic explosions. He for the Arabian Peninsula. ‘Before, we has introduced novel techniques for also studied how particulates spread did not know the optical properties of coupling atmospheric and oceanic through New York and the surrounding aerosols, their microphysical behaviour, simulations together on a regional area following the 2001 attacks on or their emission sources,’ says Dr scale, greatly improving the accuracy the World Trade Centre, conducted Georgiy Stenchikov at King Abdullah of their predictions. He used WRF simulations of the hypothetical nuclear University of Science and Technology as an atmospheric component for conflict between India and Pakistan, in Saudi Arabia. ‘The spatial resolution regional models, and the Regional and investigated the feasibility of Solar of our models was very coarse. In many Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) for Radiation Geoengineering to counteract models, aerosols were not included the oceanic component. In addition, global warming. As Dr Stenchikov in the radiative transfer calculations, he implemented NASA’s satellite describes, nuclear winter studies heavily meaning they couldn’t affect solar and observations in the model, which influenced his subsequent research, as terrestrial radiation.’ Over decades monitor dust aerosols over the Arabian well as that of many other world leaders of research, Dr Stenchikov has used Peninsula and the Red Sea from space. in the wider field of aerosol research. cutting-edge simulations, combined By running this regional coupled with ground-based and satellite ocean-atmosphere modelling system, ‘Problems including the effects of observations, to discover how these Dr Stenchikov and his colleagues volcanic eruptions on climate; dust predictions can be improved. have gained critical insights into how storms; the effect of dust on air quality aerosols have influenced the Red Sea and radiation transfer; and transport Diverse Tools for Regional Climate and the Arabian Peninsula’s climate in of the World Trade Centre fire’s plume Modelling and Monitoring the past, and how they can be expected are all physically related to the effects to transform it in the future. causing nuclear winter,’ he says. Dr Stenchikov and his colleagues have a wide array of techniques at their Aerosol Catastrophes Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions disposal for achieving these research goals, based around cutting-edge When Dr Stenchikov first started out In 1991, the eruption of Mount Pinatubo computer simulations of circulations in his career, our perceived threat of in the Philippines exerted the largest in Earth’s atmosphere and oceans. climate change was dwarfed by the volcanic climate impact in the 20th Alongside high-resolution global very feasible prospect of another global century. The globally averaged volcanic atmospheric simulations, they now catastrophe: an international nuclear cooling exceeded 0.5°C and this was use the regional Weather Research conflict between global superpowers. If twice as strong in the Middle East. WWW.SCIENTIA.GLOBAL deposition rates, mineralogy and size distribution of aerosol samples. Combined with simulations, these empirical studies revealed how aerosols become concentrated over the southern Red Sea producing in this place world’s largest radiative forcing– behaviour consistent with observations from satellites. In turn, Dr Stenchikov’s discoveries have clearly revealed the extent to which natural and anthropogenic aerosols impact regional climate, solar panel efficiency, However, even 25 years afterwards, variability and warming trends. air quality and human health. these effects were still not completely understood. Through his research, Dr Calculating Anthropogenic and Informing Future Decisions Stenchikov improved our understanding Natural Pollutants of the physical mechanisms controlling Climate change, combined with a climate responses to volcanic radiative Together, North Africa and the Arabian rise in air pollution, are now severely forcing. To study the volcanic impact Peninsula are the two largest sources threatening the livelihoods of many on the Middle East climate, Dr of dust in the world. Mixtures of mineral millions of people in the Arabian Stenchikov and his team coupled the dust, sea salt, sulphate, black carbon Peninsula – with potential disasters regional atmospheric model, WRF, and organic matter, when suspended in ranging from rising instances of with the regional ocean model, ROMS, air, can profoundly influence air quality, respiratory diseases and lung cancer, and comprehensively accounted radiative heating, and atmospheric to diminishing water resources for the radiative effects of volcanic circulations in the region. The size for agriculture. ‘The Middle East’s aerosols. Critically, his team found that distribution, and chemical composition climate is at the border of liveability,’ atmospheric circulation had a greater of aerosols are crucially important Dr Stenchikov summarises. ‘Global influence on the climate of the Middle to evaluate these effects. However, warming is faster here than the global East than direct regional cooling from
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