The making of a riskier future: How our decisions are shaping future disaster risk The making of a riskier future: How our decisions are shaping future disaster risk © 2016 Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C., 20433, U.S.A. The text in this publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or nonprofit uses, without special permission, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The GFDRR Secretariat would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this report as a source. Copies may be sent to the GFDRR Secretariat at the above address. No use of this publication may be made for resale or other commercial purpose without prior written consent of the GFDRR Secretariat. All images remain the sole property of the source and may not be used for any purpose without written permission from the source. Notes: Fiscal year (FY) runs from July 1 to June 30; the financial contributions and expenditures reported are reflected up to June 30, 2015; all dollar amounts are in US dollars ($) unless otherwise indicated. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Design: Miki Fernández/ULTRAdesigns, Inc. Cover: Kathmandu cityscape, Nepal. Photo credit: sagarmanis/Thinkstock.com; Inside cover: Bhaktapur, Nepal – May 9, 2015: Woman outside her earthquake-ruined house in Bhaktapur, Nepal, located 30 km east of Kathmandu. The town was once rich with Buddhist and Hindu temples and a popular tourist spot for those visiting Kathmandu. Photo credit: Jules2013/Thinkstock.com Table of Contents Foreword vii Acknowledgments ix Abbreviations x Executive Summary/Overview xiii 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. DISASTER RISK 5 3. DRIVERS OF EVOLVING DISASTER RISK: HAZARD 9 Hydrometeorological hazards 9 Tropical cyclone 10 Extratropical cyclone 12 Flooding 13 Extreme heat 17 Drought 18 Wildfire 19 Geotechnical and geophysical hazards 20 Seismic and volcanic hazard 20 Landslide 20 4. DRIVERS OF EVOLVING DISASTER RISK: EXPOSURE 23 Population growth 24 Increased socioeconomic activity 28 Land-use change 28 Data on evolving exposure 28 5. DRIVERS OF EVOLVING DISASTER RISK: VULNERABILITY 31 Structural vulnerability 31 Social vulnerability 33 iv 6. QUANTIFYING THE EVOLUTION OF DISASTER RISK 37 Simple or complex approach 39 Modeling interrelated and evolving hazards 40 Multiple influences on coastal flood risk 40 Time dependency 41 Uncertainty in risk assessment 42 Hazard uncertainty 42 Use of climate projections in disaster risk assessment 42 Uncertainty in exposure data and projections 44 Producing detailed risk assessments 46 Complexities in modeling evolving exposure 49 Using socioeconomic scenarios to project population 49 Projecting urban expansion 51 Evolving vulnerability: An ongoing challenge 53 7. IDENTIFYING EFFECTIVE POLICIES FOR A RESILIENT FUTURE 59 Mitigate climate change 60 Manage urbanization 60 Limit harmful land-use change and resource consumption 60 Control increases in exposure 60 Reduce vulnerability through urban design 61 Manage risk through construction 62 Building practices 62 Continuing habitability of structures 64 Consider ecosystem-based risk management 65 Improve data for risk modeling 66 Dynamic exposure and vulnerability data 66 High-resolution elevation data 66 Flood protection data 67 Implement robust, flexible adaptation 67 Enhance disaster resilience 68 Plan recovery and reconstruction before the event 69 REFERENCES 70 v 8. CASE STUDIES 81 Case Study A. World Weather Attribution 81 Case Study B. Using Catastrophe Models to Assess Future Risk 86 Case Study C. Sinking Cities: An Integrated Approach to Solutions 90 Case Study D. The Evolving Risk of Earthquakes: Past, Present, and Future 101 Case Study E. Changing Earthquake Vulnerability Linked to Informal Building Expansion 109 Case Study F. An Interrelated Hazards Approach to Anticipating Evolving Risk 114 Case Study G. Evolution of Risk in Eastern Europe and Central Asia 122 Case Study H. Open Data and Dynamic Understandings of Risk 129 Case Study I. Science Influencing Land-Use Policy: A Story from New Zealand 135 vii Foreword Tomorrow’s risk is being built today. We must therefore move away from risk assessments that show risk at a single point in the present and move instead towards risk assessments that can guide decision makers towards a resilient future. atural disasters can have truly global impacts. this goal, we need to strengthen policies and actions that There is evidence that approximately 75,000 years enable us to support larger populations, increased asset Nago, after the Toba volcano erupted in Sumatra, wealth, and more urbanized countries without increased Indonesia, a global volcanic winter may have decimated disaster risk. the global human population to just several thousand. Tomorrow’s risk is being built today. We must therefore Since then, natural hazards have frequently affected move away from risk assessments that show risk at a communities on scales large and small, but civilization as single point in the present—which can quickly become a whole is more likely to survive a catastrophe today than outdated—and move instead towards risk assessments ever before. That is the good news. that can guide decision makers towards a resilient future. The disturbing news is that the impacts of natural Only then will they be able to visualize the potential risk disasters have been growing rapidly due to global that results from their decisions taken today, and see the population growth, urbanization and increased benefit of enacting policies to reduce climate change, socioeconomic activity—with a tenfold increase in losses halt the construction of unsafe buildings, enforce land from disasters since the 1970s. Moreover, these numbers use plans, reduce subsidence, and more. have yet to incorporate the real impact of climate We have more than 75,000 years of experience living change. By the end of the century, coastal areas will see with disasters, but today’s challenges demand that we do more frequent and intense inundation due to sea level things differently. We must continually learn, innovate, rise, and changes in rainfall patterns will trigger more and push boundaries, so that we can build a safer world frequent droughts and floods, putting many lives and for ourselves and the generations to come. livelihoods in jeopardy. In 2015, world leaders made a commitment in Sendai, Japan to reduce the number of people affected, the direct Francis Ghesquiere economic loss, and the damage to critical infrastructure Head, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and basic services from disasters by 2030. To achieve and Recovery FACING PAGE Neena Sasaki, 5, carries some of the family belongings from her home that was destroyed after the devastating earthquake and tsunami on March 15, 2011 in Rikuzentakata, Miyagi province, Japan. Photo credit: Paula Bronstein/Thinkstock.com viii / Making a riskier future: How our decisions are shaping future disaster risk ix Acknowledgments his publication was prepared by a team comprising College London Hazard Centre); Gilles Erkens (Deltares Stuart Fraser, Brenden Jongman, Simone Balog, Research Institute); Alexandra Guerrero (RMS); David TAlanna Simpson, Keiko Saito, and Anne Himmelfarb. Karoly (ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of Melbourne); Christopher Kilburn Valuable review of the publication was provided by (University College London Hazard Centre); Andrew King Rashmin Gunasekera (World Bank), Stéphane Hallegatte (ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, (World Bank), Federica Rangieri (World Bank), and University of Melbourne); Anne Kiremidjian (Stanford Maarten van Aalst (Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate University); David Lallemant (Stanford University); John Centre; International Research Institute for Climate and Lambert (Deltares Research Institute); Catherine Linard Society). (Université Libre de Bruxelles); Hiro Miyazaki (University Case study contributors include Axis Maps LLC; James of Tokyo); Richard Murnane (Global Facility for Disaster Beban (GNS Science); Tom Bucx (Deltares Research Reduction and Recovery [GFDRR]); Geert Jan van Institute); Zach Bullock (Stanford University); Henry Oldenborgh (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute); Burton (Stanford University); Luis Ceferino (Stanford Friederike Otto (Environmental Change Institute, University); Erin Coughlan de Perez (Red Cross/Red University of Oxford); Wendy Saunders (GNS Science); Crescent Climate Centre; Institute for Environmental Roop Singh (Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre); Studies, VU University; International Research Institute Dina Sperling (Climate Central); Robert Soden (GFDRR); for Climate and Society); Kate Crowley (National Institute Annegien Tjissen (GFDRR); Joaquin Toro (GFDRR); John of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd.); Heidi Cullen Twigg (Centre for Urban Sustainability and Resilience, (Climate Central); Rien Dam (WaterLand Experts); University College London); Maarten van Aalst (Red James Daniell (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology); Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre; International Ger de Lange (Deltares Research Institute); Alison Research Institute for Climate and Society); Philip J. Dobbin (RMS); Melanie Duncan (University College