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European Economy ISSN 1725-3209 EUROPEAN ECONOMY Occasional Papers 159 | July 2013 The Second Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece Third Review – July 2013 Economic and Financial Affairs Occasional Papers are written by the Staff of the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, or by experts working in association with them. The “Papers” are intended to increase awareness of the technical work being done by the staff and cover a wide spectrum of subjects. Views expressed do not necessarily reflect the official views of the European Commission. Comments and enquiries should be addressed to: European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Publications B-1049 Brussels Belgium E-mail: mailto:[email protected] Legal notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on its behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained in this publication, or for any errors which, despite careful preparation and checking, may appear. This paper exists in English only and can be downloaded from the website ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications A great deal of additional information is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server (ec.europa.eu ) KC-AH-13-159-EN-N ISBN 978-92-79-31300-4 doi: 10.2765/14357 © European Union, 2013 European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs The Second Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece Third Review – July 2013 EUROPEAN ECONOMY Occasional Papers 159 OUTLINE OF THE REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1. INTRODUCTION 11 2. MACROECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS 12 2.1 Macroeconomic Developments 12 2.2 Financial Market Developments 17 3. PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION 19 3.1. Fiscal Policy performance 19 3.2. Fiscal Policy Outlook 22 3.2.1. The Fiscal outlook for the remainder of 2013 and 2014 22 3.2.2. Fiscal outlook for 2015-16 24 3.3. FISCAL Structural reforms 25 3.3.1. Privatising to boost efficiency in the economy and reduce public debt 25 3.3.2. Tax policy reform 28 3.3.3. Revenue administration reforms 28 3.3.4. Anti-Corruption Strategy 30 3.3.5. Public Financial Management Reform 30 3.3.6. Making the public administration more efficient and effective 32 3.3.7. Modernising the healthcare system 33 3.3.8. Upgrading the education system 35 3.4. Stabilising the financial system 35 3.5. Strengthening labour market institutions and promoting employment 38 3.6. Creating favourable conditions for economic activity 40 3.6.1. Promoting an efficient and competitive business environment 40 3.6.2. Reforming the judicial system to support economic activity 41 3.7. Efficient Network Industries and Services 41 3.7.1. Energy policy 41 3.7.2. Electronic communications 42 3.7.3. Transport 42 3.7.4. The Retail Sector 43 3.7.5. Regulated professions and professional qualifications 43 3.8. Increasing the impact of structural and cohesion funds 43 3.9. Technical Assistance and Monitoring 44 4. Debt sustainability analysis and programme financing 45 4.1. Debt Sustainabilty Analysis 45 4.1.1. Baseline and stress scenarios 45 4.2. Programme Financing 47 i Annex 1: Assessment of compliance with the Memorandum of Understanding on Specific Policy Conditionality 51 Annex 2: Macroeconomic forecast 93 Annex 3: Updated programme documents 99 Letter of Intent 101 Memorandum of Understanding a) Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies 105 b) Memorandum of Understanding on Specific Economic Policy conditionality 133 c) Technical Memorandum of Understanding 205 LIST OF BOXES Box 1. The documents for a comprehensive adjustment strategy 11 Box 2. Monitoring the Pension System 23 Box 3. Recapitalisation of the four core Greek banks 36 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Macroeconomic scenario, main features (2011-2016) 16 Table 2. Fiscal quantitative performance criteria (EUR bn) 20 Table 3. Developments in arrears compared to the 31st December 2012 (in cumulative terms) 21 Table 4. Medium-term fiscal projections 25 Table 5. Expected Privatisation Receipts 26 Table 6. Privatisation Plan 27 Table 7. Disbursements under the Greek adjustment programmes (EUR billion) 47 Table 8. Milestones to be achieved by end-September 2013 48 Table 9. Financing programme: quarterly financing needs and disbursements of official assistance 49 LIST OF GRAPHS Graph 1. Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) 12 Graph 2. Greek Uncertainty index 12 Graph 3. Industrial production, retail turnover and building permits (y-o-y change) 12 Graph 4. Employment: change in net hiring and change in employment 12 Graph 5. Private Consumption and Disposable Income 13 Graph 6. Investment and New Loans Issuance 13 Graph 7. Contribution of GDP components to GDP growth 14 Graph 8. Credit to tourism 14 Graph 9. Public Investment (cumulative, mn EURs) 14 Graph 10. Arrears clearance and disbursement schedule of official funds 14 Graph 11. Nominal compensation per employee and unemployment 15 Graph 12. Monthly HICP developments and annual averages 15 Graph 13. Unit Labour Cost (ULC) 15 Graph 14. Real Effective Exchange Rates (REER) 15 Graph 15. Current Account components (% of GDP) 16 Graph 16. Balances vis-à-vis the rest of the world 16 Graph 17. Athens Stock Exchange Indices 17 Graph 18. Greek 10y Bond Yield spread against Bund 17 Graph 19. Bank deposits 17 Graph 20. Credit to private sector (% change, y-o-y) 17 Graph 21. Non-performing loans ratio 18 Graph 22. State primary payments 2013 20 Graph 23. Government primary balance 2013 20 ii Graph 24. Expenditure arrears 21 Graph 25. Tax refunds vs. Previous years tax refunds clearance 30 Graph 26. Clearance of expenditure arrears against targets (cumulative) 32 Graph 27. Duration of unemployment 39 Graph 28. Greece – General Government Debt (% of GDP) 45 Graph 29. Dynamic profile of stress-test scenarios and overall impact in 2020 (% of GDP) 46 iii iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The report was prepared in the Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs, under the direction of Matthias Mors, director and mission chief, and coordination of Gabriele Giudice, head of unit. Contributors: Matthias Mors, Chris Allen, Stefan Appel, Zeta Astra, Karlis Bauze, Peghe Braila, Laszlo Butt, Pedro Cardoso, Giuseppe Carone, Jakob E. Christensen, Riccardo Ercoli, Olivia Galgau, Luis García Lombardero, Gabriele Giudice, Ignacio Gonzalez-Vazquez, Violeta Iftinchi, Loukas Kaskarelis, Zenon Kontolemis, Dorin-Emil Mantescu, Vasiliki Michou, Guillaume Prèvost, Kaspar Richter, Christoph Ungerer, Carlo Viviani and Ana Xavier. George Gavanas and Christos Zavos provided statistical assistance and were responsible for the layout. The report was prepared in liaison with the ECB. Comments on the report would be gratefully received and should be sent, by mail or e-mail to: Gabriele Giudice, European Commission, Unit ECFIN-G-3, CHAR 10/236, B-1049 Brussels. e-mail: [email protected] The cut-off date for this report was 25 July 2013 v vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report provides an assessment of the progress made by Greece with respect to its Second Economic Adjustment Programme, based on the findings of a two-part joint Commission/ECB/IMF mission to Athens between 4-19 June and 1-7 July 2013. The report examines current macroeconomic, financial and fiscal developments and assesses compliance with programme conditionality. _____________________ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Greece continues to make overall, albeit often slow, progress under the Second Economic Adjustment Programme, with several important actions being delayed. Important progress has been made on public finances and the recapitalisation of the four core banks has been completed. The legal basis for the new semi-autonomous revenue administration has been created, but perseverance in implementing the ongoing reforms will be key to deliver concrete results in the fight against tax evasion. Several important structural reforms have been implemented in the areas of healthcare, the opening of professions, and public financial management. However, far-reaching reforms are still needed in many other areas, including public administration reform, improvements of the business environment, energy and justice. The economy would also greatly benefit from a more determined and effective implementation of the privatisation programme. While declining unit labour costs, supported by the successful labour market reform, are improving cost competitiveness, the on-going product markets reforms need to be accelerated and reinforced to speed up the transmission from cost savings to lower prices. The macroeconomic outlook is broadly unchanged from the previous review. Signals from economic indicators are mixed. On the one hand, headline annual GDP growth remains negative as a result of the high negative carry-over from 2012 and the strong contraction of domestic demand. On the other hand, leading, conjunctural and financial market indicators show improving confidence in the recovery prospects of Greece. By end-June, the European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for Greece has risen to a level close to its long-term average suggesting brightening growth prospects, and deposits returned to the Greek banking system following the second disbursement under the programme in December 2012, albeit this trend has temporarily been interrupted by developments in Cyprus and—more recently—by the heightened political uncertainty preceding the government reshuffle in June. A moderate recovery led by investment and exports is projected for the beginning of 2014, leading to annual GDP growth of 0.6% in 2014, accelerating in 2015 and beyond. After over-performing in regard to the 2012 fiscal target, fiscal developments up to May have been broadly on track. The 2012 primary balance according to the programme definition reached - 1.3% of GDP, slightly better than the target of -1.5% of GDP.1 The overall balance declined by 3.1 percentage points of GDP and reached 6.3% of GDP in 2012.2 The underlying fiscal improvement was even larger when taking into account the fact that it was achieved during a deep recession.
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