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Sovereign Debt Sustainability in Greece During the Economic Adjustment Programmes: 2010-2018

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Sovereign Debt Sustainability in Greece During the Economic Adjustment Programmes: 2010-2018 Sovereign debt sustainability in Greece during the economic adjustment programmes: 2010-2018 STUDY A study prepared by CEPS in collaboration with Nation Institute of Economic and Social Research and ECORYS for the European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs. Authors: Cinzia Alcidi, CEPS Angela Capolongo, CEPS Daniel Gros, CEPS Inputs from NIESR: Cyrille Lenoël, Corrado Macchiarelli & Garry Young July 2020 Europe Direct is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union. Freephone number (*): 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (*) The information given is free, as are most calls (though some operators, phone boxes or hotels may charge you). LEGAL NOTICE The information and views set out in this study are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the European Commission. The European Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this study. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on the European Commission’s behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained therein. More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://www.europa.eu). Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2020. PDF ISBN 978-92-76-22278-1 doi: 10.2765/356606 KC-04-20-524-EN-N © European Union, 2020 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. For any use or reproduction of material that is not under the EU copyright, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders. Sovereign debt sustainability in Greece during the economic adjustment programmes 2010-2018 Table of contents Table of contents ............................................................................................... 3 List of figures and tables .................................................................................... 4 Abstract ........................................................................................................... 5 List of acronyms ................................................................................................ 6 1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 7 2 The onset of the crisis and Greece fundamentals……………………………………………………… 10 2.1 The macroeconomic fundamentals ..........................................................11 2.1.1 Low openness ................................................................................12 2.1.2 Low propensity to save ...................................................................13 2.1.3 Debt dynamics and low growth ........................................................14 2.1.4 GDP growth forecast error ...............................................................16 3Review of the official documents and intervention logic of the three adjustment programmes ....................................................................................................18 3.1 The three adjustment programmes .........................................................18 3.1.1 First programme, 2010-2012 ...........................................................18 3.1.2 Second programme, 2012-2015 .......................................................20 3.1.3 Third programme, 2015-2018 ..........................................................21 4 ............................................................................................................................................ Analysis ......................................................................................................................23 4.1 Question 1: Appropriateness of DSA in the programme – methodology and hypothesis ....................................................................................................23 4.1.1 Inside the DSA methodology: A technical comparison .........................25 4.1.2 From stock to flows: from DSA to GFNs ............................................30 4.2 Question 2: Appropriateness of debt restructuring – time, delivery, scope, link to policy conditionality ....................................................................................31 4.2.1 Private sector involvement ..............................................................32 4.2.2 Official sector involvement ..............................................................34 4.3 Question 3: Impact of reform implementation on debt sustainability ...........36 4.3.1 Privatisation: from an ambitious plan to a poor reality ........................37 4.3.2 Pensions as shock absorber .............................................................39 4.4 Question 4: Impact of PSI on economy and financial sector .......................40 4.4.1 The impacts of PSI on the financial sector .........................................40 4.4.2 The impacts of PSI on the real economy ............................................43 4.5 Question 5: Approach to debt sustainability and regained market access .....49 5 ...................................................................................................................................... Assessment ......................................................................................................................52 6 ........................................................................................................................................ Conclusion ......................................................................................................................57 References.......................................................................................................59 Annex 1: Text analysis ......................................................................................63 Annex 2: Methodology ......................................................................................64 The intervention logic .....................................................................................64 Evaluation framework .....................................................................................65 Strengths and limitations ................................................................................66 Annex 3. Outcome of stakeholder consultations ....................................................67 Overview of the scoping interviews ..................................................................67 June 2020 3 Sovereign debt sustainability in Greece during the economic adjustment programmes 2010-2018 Overview of the stakeholder workshop .............................................................70 Annex 4. Scoping interview guideline ..................................................................74 List of figures and tables Figure 1. Euro area, EFSF/ESM and IMF assistance for Greece ................................. 8 Figure 2. Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) excluding interest ............................12 Figure 3. Real GDP, growth rate ....................................................................12 Figure 4. Savings – Gross savings, total economy (LHS) and net savings, private sector (RHS) .............................................................................................................13 Figure 5. Greece external debt position (in million EUR) ........................................14 Figure 6. General government consolidated gross debt (% of GDP) .........................14 Figure 7. Debt dynamics decomposition, % of GDP: Greece (LHS) and Portugal (RHS) ......................................................................................................................15 Figure 8. Sum of debt changes over 2012-2019 (in % of GDP), Greece (LHS) and Portugal (RHS) .................................................................................................16 Figure 9. GDP growth forecast error, three adjustment programmes and reviews .....16 Figure 10. Timeline: 1st adjustment programme (2010-2012) ...............................19 Figure 11. Intervention logic: 1st adjustment programme (2010-2012) ...................20 Figure 12. Timeline: 2nd adjustment programme (2012-2015)...............................21 Figure 13. Intervention logic: 2nd adjustment programme (2012-2015) ..................21 Figure 14. Timeline: 3rd adjustment programme (2015-2018) ...............................22 Figure 15. Intervention logic: 3rd adjustment programme (2015-2018) ..................22 Figure 16. Dynamic evolution of debt-to-GDP ratio from different starting levels ......27 Figure 17. Evolution of weighted average interest rates and maturity ......................34 Figure 18. Germany – Long-term government bond yields: 10-year ........................35 Figure 19. Estimated v realised privatisations revenues (in million EUR) ..................38 Figure 20. Domestic resident deposits (million EUR) ..............................................41 Figure 21. Composition of banks’ funding in billion EUR (LHS), percent (RHS) ..........42 Figure 22. Gross loans (million EUR) ...................................................................42 Figure 23. Non-performing loans as % of total loans .............................................43 Figure 24. GDP per capita: Greece v synthetic control (in thousand EUR) ................46 Figure 25. 10-year government bond yield for Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain...48 Figure 26. Simulation of a reduction in risk premium in Greece equivalent to the risk premium of Portugal .........................................................................................49
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