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ISSN 1725-3209 EUROPEAN ECONOMY Occasional Papers 123 | December 2012 The Second Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece First Review - December 2012 Economic and Financial Affairs Occasional Papers are written by the Staff of the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, or by experts working in association with them. The “Papers” are intended to increase awareness of the technical work being done by the staff and cover a wide spectrum of subjects. Views expressed do not necessarily reflect the official views of the European Commission. Comments and enquiries should be addressed to: European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs Publications B-1049 Brussels Belgium E-mail: mailto:[email protected] Legal notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on its behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained in this publication, or for any errors which, despite careful preparation and checking, may appear. This paper exists in English only and can be downloaded from the website ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications A great deal of additional information is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server (ec.europa.eu ) KC-AH-12-123-EN-N ISBN 978-92-79-22928-2 doi: 10.2765/25398 © European Union, 2012 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs The Second Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece First Review December 2012 EUROPEAN ECONOMY Occasional Papers 123 OUTLINE OF THE REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1. INTRODUCTION 7 2. MACROECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS 9 2.1 Macroeconomic Developments 9 2.2 Financial Market Developments 17 3. PROGRAMME IMPLEMENTATION 20 3.1. Fiscal Policy performance 20 3.1.1 Fiscal performance under the programme 20 3.1.2.Fiscal performance in 2012 21 3.1.3. Fiscal outlook in 2013 and subsequent years 22 3.2. Fiscal strategy 2013-2016 23 3.3. Structural reforms with budgetary relevance 33 3.3.1. Privatising to boost efficiency in the economy and reduce public debt 33 3.3.2. Tax policy reform 36 3.3.3. Revenue administration reforms 37 3.3.4. Public Financial Management Reform 38 3.3.5. Making the public administration more efficient and effective 39 3.3.6. Completing the pension reform to secure sustainability 40 3.3.7. Modernising the healthcare system 42 3.3.8. Upgrading the education system 43 3.4. Stabilising the financial system 43 3.5. Strengthen labour market institutions and promoting employment 44 3.6. Creating favourable conditions for economic activity 46 3.6.1. Promoting an efficient and competitive business environment 46 3.6.2. Reforming the judicial system to support economic activity 47 3.7. Efficient Network Industries and Services 48 3.7.1. Energy policy 48 3.7.2. Electronic communications 49 3.7.3. Transport 49 3.7.4. The Retail Sector 50 3.7.5. Regulated professions and professional qualifications 50 3.8. Increasing the impact of structural and cohesion funds 51 3.9. Technical Assistance and Monitoring 51 4. DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS AND PROGRAMME FINANCING 52 4.1. Debt sustainability analysis 52 4.1.1. Baseline and measures to improve debt sustainability 52 4.1.2. Stress test scenarios 56 4.2. Programme financing 58 i Annex 1: Assessment of compliance with the Memorandum of Understanding on Specific Policy Conditionality (seventh update, November 2012) 61 Annex 2: Macroeconomic forecast 133 Annex 3: Updated programme documents 139 Letter of Intent 141 Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies 143 Memorandum of Understanding on Specific Economic Policy conditionality 189 Technical Memorandum of Understanding 259 List of Tables Table 1. Macroeconomic scenario, main features (2010-2016) 10 Table 2. Fiscal quantitative performance criteria (EUR billion) 22 Table 3. Primary Balance and GG Balance 2013-2016 22 Table 4. Medium-term deficit ceilings 23 Table 5. Rationalization of social benefits 28 Table 6. Fiscal measures in the MTFS 2013-14 29 Table 7. Expected Privatisation Receipts 34 Table 8. Privatisation Plan 35 Table 9. Arrears to suppliers (EUR million) 39 Table 10. Addressing financing needs and reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio 54 Table 11. Disbursements under the Greek adjustment programmes (EUR billion) 58 Table 12. Detailed composition for next disbursement by EFSF following the review 59 Table 13. Milestones for the disbursement of 3 sub-tranches of the 2nd disbursement 59 Table 14. Financing programme: quarterly financing needs and disbursements of official assistance 60 List of Boxes Box 1. The documents for a comprehensive adjustment strategy 7 Box 2. The economic adjustment programme for Greece: some success stories 8 Box 3. Uncertainty shocks and effects on Greek economic activity 12 Box 4. The external adjustment continues at significant pace 14 Box 5. Swimming against the tide - what cyclically adjusted balances tell us about fiscal adjustment in Greece 20 Box 6. Pre- and post-Adjustment Programme Trends in the Public Sector Wage Bill 24 Box 7. The contribution of defence expenditure in fiscal consolidation 26 Box 8. Pre- and post-programme trends: growth rates in social transfers 28 Box 9. How credible is the new MTFS for 2013-16? 30 Box 10. The EU's Fiscal Compact 32 Box 11. Economic Adjustment Programme and Social Equity 41 ii List of Graphs inside Boxes Graph 3.1. Uncertainty Index for Greece 12 Graph 3.2. The impact of uncertainty 13 Graph 4.1. External adjustments 14 Graph 4.2. Competitiveness indicators 15 Graph 5.1. Structural balance 20 Graph 6.1. Nominal Wage Bill Greece vs EA17 (2000=100) 24 Graph 7.1. Defence expenditure in EU countries (% of GDP) 26 Graph 7.2. Defence expenditure in Greece 26 Graph 8.1. Social transfers 28 Graph 11.1. Poverty Indicators 41 List of Graphs Graph 1. Real GDP growth and Economic Sentiment Indicator (outcome and forecast) 9 Graph 2. Real GDP growth and contributions, inflation 10 Graph 3. Trade and current account balance 10 Graph 4. Equipment investment 11 Graph 5. Housing investment 11 Graph 6. Industrial production and capacity utilisation 11 Graph 7. Exports and non-domestic industrial orders 11 Graph 8. Employment and unemployment rate 16 Graph 9. Nominal unit labour cost (2000=100) 16 Graph 10. HICP inflation developments (% change, y-o -y) 16 Graph 11. HICP inflation: main drivers 17 Graph 12. Athens Stock Exchange Indices 17 Graph 13. Greek CDS 17 Graph 14. Bank deposits 18 Graph 15. Credit to private sector (% change, y-o-y) 18 Graph 16. Loan to deposit ratio by bank (in %) 18 Graph 17. Non-performing loans ratio 18 Graph 18. Outstanding stock of T-bills (including commercial paper), EUR million 19 Graph 19. T-bills auctions since July 2010 19 Graph 20. State primary payments - 2012 21 Graph 21. Government primary balance – 2012 21 Graph 22. Fiscal measures in the medium-term fiscal strategy for 2013 29 Graph 23. Fiscal measures in the medium-term fiscal strategy through 2014 29 Graph 24. Debt to GDP ratio 52 Graph 25. Debt to GDP evolution before and after the debt-reducing initiatives agreed by the Eurogroup on 26/27 November 2012 55 Graph 26. Dynamic profile of stress-test scenarios and overall impact in 2020 (% of GDP) 57 iii e-mail: [email protected] iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The report was prepared in the Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs, under the direction of Matthias Mors, director and mission chief, and coordination of Gabriele Giudice, head of unit. Contributors: Matthias Mors, Chris Allen, Olfa Alouini, Stefan Appel, Zeta Astra, Peghe Braila, Laszlo Butt, Pedro Cardoso, Giuseppe Carone, Jakob E. Christensen, Fotini Dionyssopoulou, Riccardo Ercoli, Leila Fernández-Stembridge, Luis García Lombardero, George Gavanas, Gabriele Giudice, Loukas Kaskarelis, Zenon Kontolemis, Peter Lohmus, Guillaume Prèvost, Christoph Ungerer, Rafał Wielądek, Ana Xavier, and Christos Zavos. George Gavanas and Christos Zavos provided statistical assistance and were responsible for the layout. The report was prepared in liaison with the ECB. Comments on the report would be gratefully received and should be sent, by mail or e-mail to: Gabriele Giudice, European Commission, Unit ECFIN-G-3, CHAR 10/236, B-1049 Brussels. e-mail: [email protected] The cut-off date for this report was 13 December 2012 v vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report provides an assessment of the progress made by Greece with respect to its Second Economic Adjustment Programme, based on the findings of a four-part joint Commission/ECB/IMF mission to Athens between 3 July and 17 October 2012. The mission assessed compliance with the terms and conditions of the Second Economic Adjustment Programme agreed in February 2012 and discussed a detailed policy programme up to 2016, so as to bring the programme back on track and to ensure an effective implementation of the programme. _____________________ After the February 2012 agreement on a Second Economic Adjustment Programme and the large- scale debt restructuring operation in March 2012, a period of extreme uncertainty surrounded the implementation of the programme. The heated electoral campaign and the indecisive legislative vote of 7 May led to extreme tensions both in Greece and on international markets. Significant doubts emerged on the capacity and willingness of the country to implement the structural reforms and the fiscal consolidation needed to regain the lost competitiveness and secure the sustainability of public finances. The readiness of Greece to continue with the adjustment programme was openly questioned in creditor countries, where public opinion support started fading, given signs of a lack of commitment by the Greek government, administration and population, while large amounts of financial assistance were being provided to the country.
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