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What Accounts for the Variation in Retirement Wealth Among U.S. Households? B View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Dartmouth Digital Commons (Dartmouth College) Dartmouth College Dartmouth Digital Commons Open Dartmouth: Faculty Open Access Articles 9-2001 What Accounts for the Variation in Retirement Wealth Among U.S. Households? B. Douglas Bernheim Stanford University Jonathan Skinner Dartmouth College Steven Weinberg The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.dartmouth.edu/facoa Part of the Finance Commons Recommended Citation Bernheim, B. Douglas; Skinner, Jonathan; and Weinberg, Steven, "What Accounts for the Variation in Retirement Wealth Among U.S. Households?" (2001). Open Dartmouth: Faculty Open Access Articles. 2406. https://digitalcommons.dartmouth.edu/facoa/2406 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by Dartmouth Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Open Dartmouth: Faculty Open Access Articles by an authorized administrator of Dartmouth Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. What Accounts for the Variation in Retirement Wealth Among U.S. Households? By B. DOUGLAS BERNHEIM,JONATHAN SKINNER, AND STEVEN WEINBERG* Even among households with similar socioeconomic characteristics, saving and wealth vary considerably. Life-cycle models attribute this variation to differences in time preference rates, risk tolerance, exposure to uncertainty, relative tastes for work and leisure at advanced ages, and income replacement rates. These factors have testable implications concerning the relation between accumulated wealth and the shape of the consumption profile. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the Consumer Expenditure Survey, we find little support for these implications. The data are instead consistent with “rule of thumb,” “mental accounting,” or hyperbolic discounting theories of wealth accumulation. (JEL D1, D91, E21) Wealth and saving vary considerably, even the observed variation in savings for retirement among households with similar socioeconomic within the context of standard life-cycle models characteristics (Steven Venti and David Wise, with rational, farsighted optimization. House- 1998; Annamaria Lusardi, 1999). The interpre- holds may differ with respect to patience (the tation of this variation is a pivotal issue. If rate of pure time preference), risk tolerance, saving reflects rational, farsighted optimization, exposure to uncertainty, health status, perceived then low saving is simply an expression of life expectancy, relative tastes for goods com- preferences—saying that someone saves “too plementary with leisure at advanced ages, levels little” is comparable to asserting that he or of work-related expenses, lifetime earnings, or she doesn’t listen to enough classical music income replacement rates. In this paper, we test (Edward Lazear, 1994). If, however, house- for the presence of these factors by studying holds are shortsighted, boundedly rational, data on wealth, income, and consumption dynamically inconsistent, impulsive, or prone drawn from the Panel Study of Income Dynam- to regret, then the adequacy of saving is a ics (PSID) and the Consumer Expenditure Sur- well-posed and important empirical issue (B. vey (CEX). Douglas Bernheim, 1995). Explanations for the variation in wealth that Various factors could in principle account for are based on the life-cycle framework fall into three broad categories. Each category has a dis- tinctive and testable empirical implication. Fac- * Bernheim: Department of Economics, Stanford Uni- tors in the first category create systematic versity, Stanford CA 94305, and National Bureau of Eco- correlations between the household’s wealth nomic Research (e-mail: [email protected]); Skinner: Department of Economics, Dartmouth College, and its average consumption growth rate. For Hanover NH 03755, and National Bureau of Economic example, if differences in saving result from Research (e-mail: [email protected]); Wein- differences in patience, those who save more berg: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, should also exhibit higher consumption growth Washington DC 20551 (e-mail: steven.a.weinberg@ rates. Factors in the second category create sys- frb.gov). We are indebted to Richard Blundell, Martin Browning, Karen Dynan, Leora Friedberg, Alan Gustman, tematic correlations between wealth and one- Annamaria Lusardi, Jonathan Parker, Douglas Staiger, time changes in consumption at retirement. For Steven Venti, seminar participants at the NBER, MIT, example, households with higher work-related Northwestern University, SUNY Albany, and the Universi- expenses should accumulate less wealth and ties of California-Berkeley, Chicago, Georgia, Rochester, and Wisconsin, and two anonymous referees for very help- experience larger declines in measured con- ful comments. We gratefully acknowledge financial support sumption at retirement. Likewise, an unex- from the National Institute on Aging. pected early retirement prematurely terminates 832 VOL. 91 NO. 4 BERNHEIM ET AL.: VARIATION IN RETIREMENT WEALTH 833 wealth accumulation, and should depress con- ment is larger for households with relatively sumption by forcing the retiree to revise his or less generous pension and social security bene- her expectations about lifetime resources. Fac- fits. Although our three central results challenge tors in the third category give rise to systematic the validity of standard life-cycle models, they correlations between accumulated wealth and do not rule out a variety of behavioral theories. the level of consumption. Households with We discuss these in more detail below. strong bequest motives, for example, should This paper is related to several previous stud- tend to consume less throughout the life cycle. ies. Daniel Hamermesh (1984) and Randall Our first central finding is that there is essen- Mariger (1987) find that consumption declines tially no relation between accumulated wealth sharply as households move into retirement. and consumption growth rates either prior to Hamermesh also infers that consumption at re- retirement or after retirement. This suggests that tirement is not sustainable; Laurence Kotlikoff a wide range of factors (including differences in et al. (1982) dispute this conclusion. A. Leslie patience, as measured by pure rates of time Robb and John Burbridge (1989) find that, preference) fail to provide even contributory among Canadians, consumption at retirement explanations for the observed variations in ac- falls more sharply for blue-collar workers than cumulated wealth. for white-collar workers. Jerry Hausman and Our second central finding is the existence of Lynn Paquette (1987) link the decline in (non- a correlation between wealth and the decline in medical) consumption at retirement to unex- consumption at retirement. This is superficially pected and involuntary job loss, often resulting consistent with the second category of explana- from health problems. James Banks et al. (1998) tions mentioned previously. However, these hy- track consumption and earnings of synthetic potheses do not survive closer scrutiny. The British cohorts through retirement years and impact of retirement on work-related expenses document a sharp drop in average consumption and leisure substitutes is too small to explain the at age 65. They argue that this finding is difficult decline in consumption, and other expenditures to explain with reference to conventional eco- also fall sharply. Moreover, there is little evi- nomic factors such as a reduction in anticipated dence that the decline in potentially work- labor force participation or work-related expenses. related expenses is larger for households with Eric Engen et al. (1999) maintain that it is possible less wealth. Nor is our second finding the con- to account for the observed variation in wealth sequence of unanticipated events that affect the using a life-cycle model with heterogeneous earn- timing of retirement: the pattern persists even ings chocks and pension coverage. However, their when we remove these effects statistically. model presupposes consumption smoothing at re- Taken together, our first two findings imply that tirement, which is inconsistent with the behavioral a broad range of standard life-cycle consider- patterns documented below. ations are collectively incapable of accounting for the observed variation in wealth, holding I. Theoretical Preliminaries constant income profiles. Differences in income profiles should also In discussing the potential sources of varia- contribute to variation in wealth. For instance, tion in retirement wealth, it is useful to distinguish households with relatively generous pensions between variation in income profiles and all other and social security benefits should accumulate factors. We consider these in reverse order. less wealth to smooth consumption through re- tirement. Yet in practice, we find that house- A. Sources of Variation in Wealth, Fixing holds with lower income replacement rates do Income Profiles not have significantly higher wealth/income ra- tios. One can explain this finding in the context For households with similar earnings his- of life cycle theory if pension coverage is cor- tories, pensions, inheritances, and retirement related with tastes for saving. However, it is ages, those with less wealth at retirement much more difficult to account for the observed consumed more prior to retirement, and will
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