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Company Name 10 JUN 2016 TATA POWER 1 30 JUN 2016 ACE Pick BUY Target Price:Rs 84 CMP : Rs 72.7 Potential Upside 16% MARKET DATA No. of Shares : 271 Cr Market Cap : Rs 194 bn Free Float : 67% Avg. daily vol (6mth) : 4.6 mn shares Tata Power (TPWR) 52-w High / Low : Rs 77 / Rs 55 Bloomberg : TPWR IB Equity Power Utilities Promoter holding : 33% FII / DII : 24% /24% Turnaround across segments Price performance 120 100 80 60 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Tata Power Co. BSE_SENSEX Financial summary (Standalone) Key drivers Y/E Sales EBIDTA Adj PAT EPS Change P/E RoE EV/EBIDTA DPS Key Drivers (Units) FY16 FY17E FY18E March (Rs Cr) (Rs Cr) (Rs Cr) (Rs) (% Y-o-Y) (x) (%) (x) (Rs) Coal Volume mn tones 81 80 80 FY15 34270 7052 251 0.9 (70.2) 69.5 2.2 8.5 1.3 FY16 36531 8258 1352 5 438.2 12.9 10.5 7.2 1.3 Coal Realization USD/t 45 43 44 FY17E 33549 8240 1591 5.9 17.7 11 11.5 6.9 1.9 FY18E 34791 8600 1840 6.8 15.7 9.5 12.1 6.4 2.2 Regulated Equity Rs bn 71 82 93 Source: Company, Axis Securities CMP as on Jun 29, 2016 Akhand Pratap Singh [email protected] 30 June 2016 ACE Pick Tata Power Investment Rationale Sector: Power Utilities Turnaround across segments in FY16: Turnaround was led by (1) rationalization and falling coal prices ,(2) Indonesian coal mining business sustaining margin at ~USD 8/ton despite ~USD 7/ton drop in realization, (3) lower receivables at Delhi and Mumbai distribution businesses on tariff hike and (4) full PPA vs. 85% earlier leading to a 300 bps improvement in core RoE to 12.6% at 1.1 GW Maithon power plant. Mundra UMPP operations to turnaround: On full recovery of fixed charges on higher plant availability, Mundra UMPP reported a PAT of Rs 9 Cr in Q4FY16 (without tariff hike) vs. loss of Rs 76 Cr YoY and Rs 67 Cr QoQ. For FY16, the total loss was reported at Rs 306 Cr vs. Rs 898 Cr YoY. We factor in a turnaround in operations at Mundra UMPP based on compensatory tariff to be awarded by CERC. Under recoveries of the Mundra UMPP have come down from Rs 0.43/unit in FY15 to Rs 0.3/unit in FY16 and Rs 0.25/unit in Q4FY16. Compensatory tariff likely by Jul’16: Management indicated that compensatory tariff award by CERC (Central Electricity Regulatory Commission), based on the Appellate Tribunal for Electricity (APTEL) order is likely to be in the same range as calculated by CERC earlier i.e. ~Rs 0.25/kWh. The total amount due on the compensatory tariff till March ‘16 is ~Rs 30 bn. Coal mining profitability intact: In a falling international coal price environment, Indonesian coal mining’s profitability was sustained at EBITDA/ton of ~USD 6 despite a USD 1/ton QoQ drop in realization and USD 2/ton QoQ increase in cash costs. Coal mining business benefited from management's cost-cutting efforts. Improvement in working capital; leverage reduced: Regulatory assets (receivables/ accumulated losses) in Mumbai and Delhi distribution have declined in FY16 , which shows cash flow improvement and bodes well for earnings of the company. Working capital was reduced considerably in FY16 to 54 days sales vs.78 days YoY, resulting in increased cash flows. Further, leverage declined to 2.45x in FY16 vs. 2.6x YoY, which will help in expanding renewable portfolio. Source: Company, AXIS Direct Estimates 3 30 June 2016 ACE Pick Tata Power SOTP Sector: Power Utilities Recommend Buy with a target price of Rs 84, implying 16% upside from current level: We believe CMP of Rs 72.7 does not fully factor in significant improvement in cash flows of distribution assets; it reflects worst case assumptions of – (1) no tariff hike for UMPP, (2) coal prices sustaining around USD 45/ton and (3) nil growth. Recommend to BUY with TP of Rs 84/share. SOTP valuation Value (Rs bn) (Rs/shr) Valuation Methodology Mumbai power business 74 28 Standalone power: generation, T&D @ 1.8x equity Other power businesses 90 33 Power links (transmission), Delhi distribution, and IEL (generation JV with Tata Steel) @ 2x core equity ValnBumi stake (net of debt) 21 8 8x FY17E EV/EBITDA - 20%holdco discount for listed stocks Investments 13 5 - NIL value for unlisted TTSL Value of1GW Maithon 6 2 NPV disc @ CoE of 13% (100% cost plus) Value of4GW Mundra UMPP 5 2 NPV @ CoE of 14% Excess Cash 15 6 Cash as of Mar '17 Target price 224 84 Key risks: Decline in coal sales volume and its impact on EBIDTA margin Adverse tariff orders for Mundra UMPP, other cost plus basis businesses and continuous increase in regulatory assets At the end of FY16, the debt of the company stood at Rs 41621 Cr (2.45x leverage). 4 30 June 2016 ACE Pick Tata Power Business Overview Sector: Power Utilities Tata Power (TPWR) is an integrated power company having presence in power generation, distribution, transmission and also holds strategic stake in Indonesian coal mines. Its expanding its footprint overseas by setting up power generation capacities. It also has presence in defence electronic systems (SED) and solar manufacturing (Tata Solar). Investments Generation * TTML (1) 7% Operational: (9053 MW) TTSL (1) 8% Thermal: 7810 MW Panatone 40% Hydro: 693 MW Tata Comm (1) 17% Wind: 620 MW Solar: 60 MW Under Execution: 682 MW Transmission: Mumbai and Powerlinks (51%) stake Tata Power Power Business Distribution: Mumbai, TPDDL (Delhi, 51% stake and Jamshedpur (100% stake) Other Businesses Power Trading: Tata Power Trading SED Tata Power Solar Systems 100% Fuel & Logistics: Tata Projects 48% Indonesian Coal Mines–KPC, Arutmin, BSSR Notes: (1) TTML: Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Ltd, TTSL: Tata Teleservices, Tata Comm: Tata Communications Ltd * Doesn't include recently acquired capacities of Welspun Energy 5 30 June 2016 ACE Pick Tata Power Power Generation Capacity Sector: Power Utilities Long-term PPAs for power plants Capacity % of overall Revenue Model Returns Upside Tata Power Projects Off-take counterparty (MW) capacity Mumbai Operations Fixed return on (Thermal & Hydro), BEST, TPTCL, TPDDL, DVC, TPDDL, Regulated returns 3,425 40% Savings on Norms + PLF incentive regulated equity Maithon, Jojobera (Unit WBSEBL, KSEB 2 and 3), TPDDL Regulated tariff Fixed tariff + PLF Savings on capex + CDM BESCOM, GUVNL, TPC-D, Tata Motors, mechanism 546 6% Wind, Solar driven certificates / RECs as applicable TANGEDCO (renewables) Captive power Merchant sales + saving on PPA Jojobera (Unit 1 and 4) 428 5% PPA driven (14-19%) Tata Steel plant terms + PLF incentive and IEL Merchant and Merchant: Market Merchant: No cap on 246 ~1% Haldia (120MW) Bilateral: PPA with WBSEDCL Bilateral Offtake Bilateral: PPA driven returnsBilateral: Per PPA Gujarat, Maharashtra, Punjab,Rajasthan, Case II (bidding) 4,000 46% Bid driven PLF incentives CGPL Haryana Projects under execution Project Fuel Capacity (MW) Status of Completion Power off-take Expected COD Renewable Projects Wind 200 Under Execution PPA with states FY17 Kalinganagar, Orissa Flue gas 67.5 2 units (2 x 67.5MW) synchronized PPAwith Tata Steel to be executed FY17 Georgia –40% stake Hydro 185 Land acquired; civil workin progress PPA to be executed closer to COD FY17 South Africa Wind 229 Financial closure completed. Construction in progress PPA withEskom for 20 years FY17 Total 682 Source: Company, AXIS Direct Estimates 6 30 June 2016 ACE Pick Tata Power Coastal Gujarat Power Ltd -CGPL (Mundra UMPP) Sector: Power Utilities Improved operational efficiency led to turnaround of operations To meet the coal requirement of Mundra UMPP, Tata Power signed a coal offtake agreement with Kaltim Prima Coal in 2007, which entitled it to purchase 10 mn tones of coal per annum. But in 2011-2012, Indonesian Government came out with a new policy which stipulated benchmarking of Indonesian coal prices to international market rates for exporting the coal. Due to change in policy, imported coal cost for Indian power generation companies increased significantly, which made many projects unviable. Tata Power's Mundra UMPP incurred huge losses as increase in fuel cost due to change in Indonesian coal export policy was not allowed to pass on to consumers. It will be allowed to pass on only if it is considered as a force majeure. Tata Power’s ~29% capital is employed in Mundra UMPP (4,000 MW) which was continuously incurring losses since commencement of operation in FY12. Project has incurred cumulative losses of Rs 6477 Cr (inclusive of impairment), which is equivalent to 41% net- worth of the Tata Power. Over the years, operational efficiency and fall in coal prices has resulted in lower under recoveries for the project. Under recoveries have come down from Rs 0.58/unit in FY14 to Rs 0.3/unit in FY16. In Q4FY16, Mundra UMPP has reported a profit of Rs 9 Cr due to its operational efficiency (even without any tariff hike). Management is expecting compensatory tariff hike by Central Electricity Regulatory commission (CERC) which will act a key driver for the sustained profitable operations of Mundra UMPP. Improved operational performance resulted in turnaround of Mundra UMPP – Operational Performance Mundra UMPP in Q4FY16 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (Rs/kWh) Rs Cr FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY14 FY14 FY14 FY15 FY15 FY15 FY15 FY16 FY16 FY16 FY16 Units sold (Mus) 5000 5136 6312 6078 5265 6741 6418 5795 5494 5996 6394 Revenue 2791 5636 5894 5819 Realization 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.5 EBIDTA 333 755 886 1164 Fuel cost 1.7 2 2 2 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 PAT (1602)* (1492) (898) (306) Fixed cost 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 PAT (Rs Cr) (297) (318) (328) - (273) (243) (76) (134) (74) (67) 9 FY13 PAT is inclusive of Rs 850 Cr impairment Source: Company, AXIS Direct Estimates Source: Company, AXIS Direct Estimates 7 7 30 June 2016 ACE Pick Tata Power Coal Business Sector: Power Utilities Cost cutting efforts mitigating the impact of fall in coal prices In 2007, Tata Power acquired 30% stake in two Indonesian coal mines named Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC) and PT Arutmin at a consideration of USD 1.1 bn.
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