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Tata Power (TATPOW) | 71 Target : | 79 Target Period : 12 Months Potential Upside : 12% All Round Performance …

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Tata Power (TATPOW) | 71 Target : | 79 Target Period : 12 Months Potential Upside : 12% All Round Performance … Result Update May 25, 2016 Rating matrix Rating : Buy Tata Power (TATPOW) | 71 Target : | 79 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : 12% All round performance … • Revenues came in at | 9374 crore up 13.8% YoY, higher that I-Direct What’s changed? estimates of | 9037 crore. On a segmental basis, power segment Target Changed from | 67 to | 79 revenues were higher that estimates at | 7025 crore (estimate of EPS FY17E Changed from | 5.3 to | 4.6 |6624 crore) while coal segment revenues came in line at | 2023 EPS FY18E Changed from | 5.8 to | 5.1 crore vs. estimate of |2000 crore. Rating Changed from Hold to Buy • Performance across subsidiaries was reasonably strong. The likes of Maithon power (strong generation), Mundra (lower fuel costs), Tata Quarterly performance Solar (strong revenue booking and outlook) added to overall Q4FY16 Q4FY15 YoY (%) Q3FY16 QoQ (%) performance. Revenue 9333 8240 13 8952 4 • EBITDA margins came in at 20.4% for Q4FY16 vs. our estimate of EBITDA 1913 1962 (3) 2095 (9) 23% for the quarter. The key miss stemmed due to miss in the power EBITDA (%) 20 24 (331) 23 (291) segment EBIT which came in at 17.3% YoY as compared to 19.4% in PAT 356 (13) 2884 260 37 Q4FY15. The same is reiterated from the fuel costs which have gone up sharply by 73% YoY Key financials • Higher than expected revenues, strong subsidiary performance and | Crore FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E one off regulatory gain led to a PAT of |360 crore higher than our Net Sales 34366.9 37480.2 39642.3 41154.6 estimates of |320 crore in Q4FY16 . EBITDA 6940.5 9031.2 8284.1 8617.2 Sectoral woes impact earnings Net Profit 167.8 832.5 1244.1 1371.2 Being the largest integrated power company in India with an installed Valuation summary capacity of 8,560 MW, Tata Power (TPL) has been impacted by various FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E sectoral woes like higher fuel price, increased regulated assets and huge debt level. The change in Indonesian policy to link the export price of its P/E 116.0 21.8 19.0 13.3 coal with the international index in September 2011 led to an increase of EV / EBITDA 8.0 5.6 6.1 5.7 the generation cost for TPL’s 4000 MW Mundra UMPP to ~| 2.85/Kwhr P/BV 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 (total fixed + variable cost) against a fixed price sale agreement at RoNW (%) 1.3 6.6 6.9 8.9 | 2.26/Kwhr for 25 years with state discoms. This led to an erosion of RoCE (%) 10.4 14.7 12.6 13.1 close to | 3,817 crore of TPL’s networth in the past three years. Furthermore, cost of carrying regulatory assets at its Delhi and Mumbai Stock data operations (~| 7,063 crore) along with a sliding rupee, led to a working Particular Amount capital crunch. This resulted in increased debt of ~| 39,930 crore as on Market Capitalization (| Crore) 19473.3 Q3FY16 (D/E of 2.3x) vs. | 18,500 crore in FY10. Total Debt (FY16) (| Crore) 40274.0 Cash & Investments (FY16) (| Crore) 1210.0 Mundra hearing completed by APTEL; Judgment kept reserved EV (| Crore) 58537.3 As per the Supreme court’s (SC) order, APTEL has completed the hearing 52 week H/L (|) 89.7/55.6 of Mundra tariff and the judgement has been kept reserved. We believe Equity capital (| crore) 270.48 that the judgement would be pronounced anytime soon, post which the Face value | 1.0 related parties are likely to approach the Supreme Court again resulting in Price performance further delay. This delay in Mundra tariff hike will continue to significantly impact the feasibility of the project. Losses at Mundra have already 1M 3M 6M 12M eroded ~| 3,985 crore of TPL’s networth in the past three years. While the Tata Power (14.3) (12.9) (14.9) (28.2) company has reversed impairment losses for the project amounting to | NTPC (11.8) (8.9) (8.0) (12.0) 2,320 crore resulting in a project level PAT of | 2,163 crore, the under CESC (9.7) (16.8) (24.0) (34.6) recovery in the fuel cost still hovers around | 0.35/unit. Thus any further Research Analyst delay in tariff finalisation will negatively impact investor sentiments. Chirag Shah Favourable CERC order might rerate the stock; upgrade to Buy [email protected] Going ahead, we believe the upcoming CERC order w.r.t compensatory tariff can lead to rerating of the stock as Tata power has accumulated losses of over |3000 crore related to that. Improving performances of other subsidiaries augurs well for profitability going ahead coupled with low probability of extraordinary write-offs. We upgrade our SoTP based target price to | 79 and rate the stock as Buy. Key risks would be delay/cancellation of stake sale process in coal SPV. ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Variance analysis Key highlights of results, conference call Q4FY16 Q4FY16E Q4FY15• YoY (%)Mundra’s Q3FY16 fuel QoQ (%) cost Commentsin Q4FY16 stood at | 1.7/Kwh vs. | 1.9/Kwh in each Energy sales net 9,332.6 8,966.7 8,167.1 14.3in Q2FY16-Q3FY16 8,853.1 5.4 Power (this segment includes revenues logistic were higher charges) that estimates at | 7025 crore (estimate • Mundra’s availabilityof |6624 during crore) the while quarter coal segment improved revenues came significantly in line at | 2023 to crore 80% vs. • Fuel cost under recoveryestimate of during|2000 crore the quarter stood at | 0.25/unit vs | Other Income 41.6 70.0 72.5 (42.6)0.52/unit 98.8 at the (57.9) time of filing the compensatory tariff petition. Total Income 9,374.3 9,036.7 8,239.6• 13.8Realisation 8,951.9 (freight 4.7 on board) at coal SPV declined to $41.1/tonne vs. Fuel 1,999.4 2,040.0 2,028.6 (1.4)$43/tonne 2,021.7 in Q4FY15 (1.1) and $42.1/tonne in Q3FY16 Power purchase cost 2,476.2 2,100.0 1,429.5• 73.2The 2,128.0cash cost 16.4at the Power coal purchase SPV cost de increasedclined dueto $28.3/tonneto higher volumes invs. TPTC $26.3/tonne by 73% YoY YoY and $33.06.tonne QoQ Employee expense 328.3 451.8 428.0• (23.3)Consolidated 406.6 debt (19.3) was at | 40120 in FY16 vs. | 40,842 crore YoY and Total expenses 7,353.4 6,992.0 6,266.8 17.3. There 6,847.4 is a repayment 7.4 commitment worth ~| 25,00 over the next EBITDA 1,912.6 2,044.7 1,961.7 (2.5)year. 2,094.7 Debt at Mundra (8.7) EBIDTA UMPP was below and expecatations Coal SPV as stands power purchase at | 10800costs impacted crore EBIT and | 6000 crore, respectivelymargins EBITDA Margin (%) 20.5 22.8 24.0 -352.591• Tata Power’s 23.7 -316.7504 30% stake sale in Arutmin mine (Indonesia) for ~$510 Depreciation 592.3 620.0 553.7 7.0million 618.3 and 5% (4.2) stake in KPC mine for $250 million is taking longer Interest 858.1 880.0 902.0 (4.9)than expected 855.8 0.3due to the legal tussle with lenders. The company, Other Income -27.0 40.0 86.6 (131.1)however, 44.8 believes (160.2) it will seal the deal in FY17E. The proceeds (| 5000 PBT 592.8 584.7 493.5 20.1crore) 193.6 will be (475.6)used to reduce its debt level • For the whole year, Maithon power plant exhibited revneies and Extraordinary expenses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0profitability 0.0 of |2312 0.0 crore and | 189 crore. Tata power solar reported Extraordinary Income 157.5 0.0 (99.1) 259.0strong FY16 0.0 given - its revenues grew from |1489 crore in FY16 from Total Tax 136.7 204.6 285.3 (52.1)|873 crore 208.5 in FY15. (34.4) APAT 355.8 320.1 (12.8) 2,884.3 260.4 36.6 The PAT were ahead of estimates on account better topline growth and one off gain owing to regulatory assets Performance of subsidiaries in Q4FY16 Key Metrics Power 7,025.0 6,624.0 5,996.5 17.2 6,450.0 8.9 Growth was driven by improved sales across TPTCL and Tata Solar segment Exhibit 1: Strong performance across all subsidiaries of Tata Power in Q4FY16 during the quarter Revenues EBITDA PAT Coal 2,023.0 2,000.0 1,873.1 8.0 1,922.2 5.2 Coal volumes came in at 21.4 million tonne up 2.5% YoY YoY Growth YoY Growth YoY Growth Other 952.6 520.0 388.6 145.1 619.0 53.9 | crore Q4FY16 Q4FY15 /(Decline) Q4FY16 Q4FY15 / (Decline) Q4FY16 Q4FY15 / (Decline) Source:Tata power Company, Solar ICICIdirect.com Research 429 287 49.5 35 7 NA 4.0 (24.0) 116.7 NDPL 1663 1445 15.1 290 239 21.3 118.0 60.0 96.7 ChangePower Links in estimates 58 59 (1.7) 58 59 (1.7) 29 27 7.4 Tata Power TradingFY17E 1471 1038 FY18E 41.7 16 14 14.3 6 7 (15.7) (|Maithon Crore) Old New % Change589 Old 587 New 0.3 % Change 224 215 4.2Comments 74 57 29.8 RevenueIEL 38,659 39,642 2.5 132 39,725.0 127 41,154.6 3.9 3.6 Estimates 77 kept 59 unchanged 30.5 22.0 29 (24.1) EBITDACGPL 9,015 8,284 (8.1) 1572 9,364.0 1601 8,617.2 (1.8) (8.0) 386 394.0 (2.0) 9 (76) NA EBITDATotal Margin (%) 23 21 (182.3) 5914 23 5144 21 15.0 (239.4) 1086 987 10.0 262 80 (227.4) Source:PAT Company, ICICIdirect.com 1,424 Research 1,244 (12.6) 1,571.0 1,371.2 (12.7) EPS (|) 5.3 4.6 (13.2) 5.8 4.6 (20.7) Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Assumptions Assumptions Current Earlier Comments FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E Mundra Generation (Crore) 2,498.2 2,534.4 2,629.4 2,692.8 2,702.1 2,692.8 Generation growth driven by better PLF, going ahead Coal SPV sales (MT) 82.0 90.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 Coal realisation($/tonne) 55.0 58.0 64.0 65.0 64.0 65.0 International coal prices likely to decline in FY16E but to revive in FY17E Cash cost($/tonne) 37.0 35.0 36.0 37.0 37.0 37.0 Coal processing cost to decline due to less overburden and a better strip ratio.
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