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Climate Proofing: a Risk-Based Approach To Pacific Studies Series CLIMATE PROOFING: A Risk-based Approach to Adaptation PROOFING: A Risk-based CLIMATE CLIMATE PROOFING A Risk-based Approach to Adaptation Cyclone Meena’s 14-meter storm surge inundating a building on the waterfronf of Avarua, Rarotonga, 0630hrs, 6 February 2006. Photo courtesy of Geoff Mackley, www.emergency.co.nz About the Asian Development Bank The Asian Development Bank (ADB)’s work is aimed at improving the welfare of the people of the Asia and Pacific region, particularly for the 1.9 billion who live on less than $2 a day. Despite the success stories, Asia and the Pacific remains home to two thirds of the world’s poor. ADB is a multilateral development finance institution owned by 64 members, 46 from the region and 18 from other parts of the globe. ADB’s vision is a region free of poverty. Its mission is to help its developing member countries reduce poverty and improve their quality of life. ADB’s main instruments in providing help to its developing member countries are policy dialogues, loans, technical assistance, grants, guarantees, and equity investments. ADB’s annual lending volume is typically about $6 billion, with technical assistance provided usually totaling about $180 million a year. ADB’s headquarters is in Manila. It has 26 offices around the world. The organization has more than 2,000 employees from over 50 countries. Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines www.adb.org/Publications Publication Stock No. 030905 Printed in the Philippines Climate main book cover.pmd 1 23/11/2005, 4:09 PM Pacific Studies Series Climate Proofing A Risk-based Approach to Adaptation ClimaxPrelim.pmd 1 22/11/2005, 5:56 PM © 2005 Asian Development Bank All rights reserved. Published 2005. Printed in the Philippines. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Available. Publication Stock No. 030905 Asian Development Bank Developing countries in the Pacific can adapt their capacity for dealing with, and resilience to climate change and climate variability. The views expressed in this book are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. The Asian Development Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. Use of the term “country” does not imply any judgment by the authors or the Asian Development Bank as to the legal or other status of any territorial entity. ii Climate Proofing: A Risk-based Approach to Adaptation ClimaxPrelim.pmd 2 22/11/2005, 5:56 PM Table of Contents Abbreviations x Currency Equivalents xi Glossary xii Foreword xv Acknowledgments xvii Executive Summary xxiii I. Background to the Study 1 II. Introduction to the Study 2 III. Sharing the Findings 4 IV. Why Adapt and What Is Involved? 5 A. Scientific Consensus on Global and Regional Climate Change, and Implications for Pacific Island Countries 5 B. Adaptation 7 V. Climate-related Risks in the Case Study Countries 10 A. Background on the Case Study Countries 10 B. Characterizing Risk 12 VI. The Case Studies 18 A. Introduction 18 B. Case Study Identification and Selection Procedures 19 C. Implementation of the Case Studies 22 D. Case Study One: Climate Proofing a Roadbuilding Infrastructure Project in Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia 26 E. Case Study Two: Climate Proofing the Design of the Breakwater for the Newly Developed Western Basin, Avatiu Harbor, Rarotonga 32 F. Case Study Three: Climate Proofing Avatiu-Ruatonga, a community inland from Avatiu Harbor Cook Islands 39 G. Case Study Four: Climate Proofing Sapwohn, a Coastal Community in Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia 48 H. Case Study Five: Climate Proofing the Infrastructure, Human Health, and Environment Components of the Federated States of Micronesia National Strategic Development Plan 55 I. Case Study Six: Climate Proofing the Cook Islands National Development Strategy 62 Contents iii ClimaxPrelim.pmd 3 22/11/2005, 5:56 PM VII. Key Findings and Recommendations 75 A. Follow-Up to the Case Studies 76 B. Implications for ADB Project Processing and Operations 78 C. The Global Environment Facility as One Mechanism for Financing Adaptation 84 D. Lessons Learned and Demonstrated 87 E. Barriers to Successful Application of the CCAIRR Framework and Methods 89 F. Recommendations 91 VIII. Elaboration of the Approach, Methods, and Tools 95 A. Introduction 95 B. Approach, Methods, and Tools for an Integrated, Risk-Based Approach to Adaptation 95 C. Mainstreaming Adaptation in National Development Planning and Implementation 110 IX. Summary and Conclusions 116 References 119 Apppendices Appendix 1: Federated States of Micronesia—Climate Risk Profile 121 Appendix 2: The Cook Islands—Climate Risk Profile 132 Appendix 3: Guidelines for Policy and Decision Makers and Other Key Players— Federated States of Micronesia 145 Appendix 4: Guidelines for Policy and Decision Makers and Other Key Players— Cook Islands 161 Appendix 5: Mainstreaming the Economic Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change 176 Within ADB Appendix 6: Land Use Change Model 190 List of Tables V.1. A Risk Register, Based on Hypothetical Examples 13 V.2. Return Period and Likelihood of Occurrence in 1 Year, for Given Extreme Events in Pohnpei and Kosrae, for the Present and Projected Future 14 V.3. Return Period and Likelihood of Occurrence in 1 Year, for Given Extreme Events in Rarotonga, for the Present and Projected Future 15 V.4. Probability Components for Daily Rainfall of at least 250 mm, Rarotonga 15 V.5. Open Water Wave Height (Average of Top 10%) Associated with Tropical Cyclones Recently Affecting Rarotonga 17 VI.1. Factors Considered When Selecting the Implementing Agencies 22 iv Climate Proofing: A Risk-based Approach to Adaptation ClimaxPrelim.pmd 4 22/11/2005, 5:56 PM VI.2. Implications of Possible Changes in Future Climatic Risks for Options for the Location and Design of the Road through the Yela 29 VI.3. Construction Costs for the As Yet Unbuilt 6.6-km Section of RS4 (2004 $) 30 VI.4. Total Construction, Maintenance, and Repair Costs of the As Yet Unbuilt Section of RS4 (2004 $) 30 VI.5. Construction Costs of 3.2-km Built Section of RS4 (2004 $) 31 VI.6. Total Construction, Maintenance, and Repair Costs of 3.2-km Built Section of RS4 (2004 $) 31 VI.7. Relationship Between Wind Speed and Significant Wave Height for Given Return Periods for the Avatiu Harbor Area 36 VI.8. Estimates of Return Periods for Given Wind Speeds 38 VI.9. Estimated Wave Run-up Elevation for Conditions Representative of Cyclone Sally for a Coastal Segment Adjacent to Avatiu Harbor, with Future Sea-level Rise Added (Current Return Period of Approximately 13 Years) 39 VI.10. Projected Costs of Flooding for Avatiu-Ruatonga, as a Consequence of All Heavy Rainfall Events Occurring over the Period Indicated 43 VI.11. Benefit Cost Analysis for Reduction of Flood Damage from Heavy Rainfall, Avatiu-Ruatonga, over Next 50 Years 44 VI.12. Cost and Consequent Change in Damage Costs for Selected Regulatory and Voluntary Measures, for New/Renovated Buildings Only, Over Next 50 Years 45 VI.13. Relationships Between Cyclone Parameters and Coastal Risk Parameters for a Site Representative of a Segment of the Avatiu Coastline 45 VI.14. Projected Costs of Sea Surge Flooding of a Selected Area of Avatiu-Ruatonga (NZ$ million) 47 VI.15. Cost and Consequent Change in Damage Costs for Selected Regulatory and Voluntary Measures, for New/Renovated Buildings Only, Over Next 50 Years 47 VI.16. Cost and Consequent Change in Damage Costs for Hypothetical Scenario, A 5 m-High Sea Wall at the Avatiu Shoreline 48 VI.17. Projected Costs of Sapwohn Flooding as a Consequence of Heavy Rainfall ($ million) 51 VI.18. Cost and Consequent Change in Damage Costs for Selected Regulatory and Voluntary Measures over Next 50 Years 52 VI.19. Incremental Costs and Benefits of Selected Adaptation Measures ($ million) 52 VI.20. Projected Costs of Flooding of Sapwohn Village as a Result of High Sea Levels ($ million) 53 VI.21. Cost and Consequent Reduction in Damage Costs for Selected Regulatory and Voluntary Measures, for New/Renovated Buildings Only, over the Next 50 Years 54 VI.22. Return Periods for Maximum Wind Speed, Pohnpei (Years) 59 Contents v ClimaxPrelim.pmd 5 22/11/2005, 5:56 PM VI.23. Number of Dengue Cases in a Month if an Outbreak is Already Occurring, Based on the Rainfall (mm) and Maximum Temperature (°C) in the Previous Month 65 VI.24. Total and Monthly Maximum Number of Cases of Dengue in Rarotonga (1998–2003) 66 VI.25. Number of ARI Cases in a Month, Based on Rainfall (mm) and Extreme Temperature (°C) in the Previous Month 67 VI.26. Strategic Priority 1: Good Governance and Law and Order 69 VI.27. Strategic Priority 2: Macroeconomic Stability and Economic Development 69 VI.28. Strategic Priority 3: Improved Quality of Education 70 VI.29. Strategic Priority 4: Improved Quality of Health Services 70 VI.30. Strategic Priority 5: Improve the Standard of Infrastructure and the Provision of Utilities, including Transport Services 71 VI.31. Strategic Priority 6: Increase Agricultural Productivity for Self-Sufficiency and Food Security 71 VI.32. Strategic Priority 7: Improve Development and Management of Marine Resources 72 VI.33. Strategic Priority 8: Tourism Development 72 VI.34. Strategic Priority 9: Protection, Conservation, and Sustainable Management of the Environment and Natural Ecosystems 73 VII.1. Tools and Timing for Mainstreaming Adaptation in ADB Procedures 83 VIII.1. Comparison of Hypothetical Present Values of Expected Damages Under Climate Change 106 VIII.2.
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