Md Modasser Hossain Khan Masters Thesis.Pdf (2.772Mb)
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The Department of International Environment and Development Studies, Noragric, is the international gateway for the Norwegian University of Life Sciences (UMB). Eight departments, associated research institutions and the Norwegian College of Veterinary Medicine in Oslo. Established in 1986, Noragric’s contribution to international development lies in the interface between research, education (Bachelor, Master and PhD programmes) and assignments. The Noragric Master theses are the final theses submitted by students in order to fulfil the requirements under the Noragric Master programme “International Environmental Studies”, “Development Studies” and other Master programmes. The findings in this thesis do not necessarily reflect the views of Noragric. Extracts from this publication may only be reproduced after prior consultation with the author and on condition that the source is indicated. For rights of reproduction or translation contact Noragric. ©Md Modasser Hossain Khan, December 2011 [email protected] Noragric Department of International Environment and Development Studies P.O. Box 5003 N-1432 Ås Norway Tel.: +47 64 96 52 00 Fax: +47 64 96 52 01 Internet: http://www.umb.no/noragric i DECLARATION I, Md Modasser Hossain Khan, declare that this thesis is a result of my research investigations and findings. Sources of information other than my own have been acknowledged and a reference list has been appended. This work has not been previously submitted to any other university for award of any type of academic degree. Signature……………………………….. Date………………………………………… ii DEDICATION I dedicate this thesis to my parents who inspired me throughout the data collection and writing period and encouraged me until the end, to complete the hard work successfully. Without them, this would not have been possible. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First and foremost, I would like to extend my sincere thanks and greatest appreciation to my supervisor, Prof. Ian Bryceson, for his valuable guidance, advice and support. He has been extremely helpful throughout the research period. Without his encouragement and guidance, this thesis could not have materialized. I am also thankful to Ass. Prof. Siri Eriksen, for her thoughtful advice and guidance, which helped me a lot throughout the research period. Special thanks to my study coordinator Ingunn Bohmann for her kind support and help during the whole research period. Special thanks also go to Dr. Ubydul Haque of IMT department, for his guidance and for helping me throughout the image analysis procedure. I would also like to thank Hafizur Rahman, PhD student of IPM department for his support and help during the writing period. The work leading to this study was supported by a research grant from Noragric, and this financial help is greatly acknowledged. Without the financial support, it would not be possible for me to conduct the fieldwork. I would like to thank all the members of Noragric for their cooperation’s. iv ABSTRACT Natural disasters and land-use change are major concerns all over the world, and if these two concerns exist together in a coastal area, then the consequences for people and the environment may be severe. This study investigated the changes in land-use in the past 10 years in Shyamnagar Upazila of the south-west coastal area of Bangladesh. The drivers of land-use change and the occurrence of disasters were explored in relation to their effects on social and ecological systems. Satellite images were analyzed to detect changes in land-cover in the last 13 years. Three areas were selected for on-the-ground data collection. Household surveys were conducted to discover the type, level and effects of disasters. Focus Group Discussions and personal interviews were also conducted to explore the drivers behind changes in land-use. Probability regression analysis was performed to assess the relationship between various disasters with overall income, agricultural production and outward migration. Results from image analysis showed an overall 21 percent increase in shrimp culture ponds in the past 13 years. Agricultural land and forest resources decreased by 48 and 3 percent, respectively, while barren and built up areas increased by 71 percent. Analysis of household data showed that cyclones and tidal floods had significant effects on income, agricultural production and migration. Social, economic and political factors combined with natural causes were found to be the main drivers behind land-use changes. These empirical findings suggest that social and ecological resilience was reduced and vulnerabilities increased in this part of coastal Bangladesh for these reasons between 1999 and 2012. v TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research Questions ............................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Objectives .............................................................................................................................. 2 1.4 Hypotheses of the study ........................................................................................................ 2 1.5 Conceptual Framework ......................................................................................................... 2 2. Review of literature..................................................................................................................... 3 2.1 Land-use and land-cover changes ......................................................................................... 3 2.2 Detection of land-use and land-cover changes using satellite imagery ................................ 3 2.3 Land-use practices in coastal areas of Bangladesh ............................................................... 4 2.4 Disasters in coastal areas of Bangladesh ............................................................................... 5 2.5 Vulnerability and resilience in terms of disasters and land-use changes .............................. 5 3. Methods....................................................................................................................................... 8 3.1 Selection of the study area .................................................................................................... 8 3.2 Description of the study area ................................................................................................. 8 3.3 Satellite Image analysis ......................................................................................................... 9 3.4 Data collection and analysis ................................................................................................ 10 3.5 Limitations .......................................................................................................................... 10 4. Results ....................................................................................................................................... 11 4.1 Land-cover change detection .............................................................................................. 11 4.1.1 Change detection Statistics ........................................................................................... 16 4.2 General characteristics of respondents ................................................................................ 16 4.3 Changes in land-use and their causes .................................................................................. 17 4.4 Factors responsible behind major land-use changes ........................................................... 18 4.5 Disasters in the study area and their effects according to respondents ............................... 19 4.5.1 Salinity level of the study area ..................................................................................... 19 vi 4.5.2 Type and level of disasters on the study area ............................................................... 19 4.5.3 Impacts of disasters on agricultural production, income and migration ....................... 21 4.5.4 Consequential effects of disasters ................................................................................. 23 4.5.5 Diseases outbreak after disasters .................................................................................. 24 4.6 Migration in the study area and their causes ....................................................................... 24 4.7 Changes in tree and fish species .......................................................................................... 25 5. Discussion ................................................................................................................................. 27 5.1 Changes in land-use and land-cover in the study area from 1999 to 2012 ......................... 27 5.2 Effects of land-use changes ................................................................................................. 28 5.3 Drivers behind major land-use changes .............................................................................. 29 5.4 Effects of disasters on the study area .................................................................................. 29 5.5 Causes of migration in the study area ................................................................................