Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study 2021 © The Loomex Group 2021
Photo: Pat Hanna
Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
Executive Summary
Figure 1: Aerial View of the Airport by Edward Matthews Photography Background The Township of Georgian Bluffs and Grey County contracted The Loomex Group to conduct a Feasibility Study (Study) for the Wiarton Keppel International Airport (Airport) to determine its potential as a regional asset.
The Wiarton Keppel International Airport is located 2.4 km east of Wiarton and is owned and operated by the Township of Georgian Bluffs. The Airport property contains approximately 815 acres of land and attracts a mix of aircraft traffic throughout the year, including regular flights for recreational purposes, charters, medical evacuations, training aircraft, and corporate aircraft. The type and size of aircraft flying into the Airport varies from small, single-engine planes to helicopters and jet aircraft.
The Airport is the only Certified Airport in Grey and Bruce Counties, ensuring users' safety and providing oversight from Transport Canada, making this guaranteed safety element more desirable for users and businesses. The Airport is operational twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week and can support aircraft flying in inclement weather situations. It can also accommodate commercial and private aircraft that other airports in the area may not receive due to existing infrastructure.
The infrastructure benefits the region with a primary runway of approximately 5,028 feet in length and 150 feet in width, supporting various aircraft operations, including large corporate jets, turboprop aircraft and narrow-body airliners, including the Boeing 737. The runway has a pavement load rating of nine, making it capable of carrying loads of up to 90,720 kg aircraft, supporting the weight of larger jets and military aircraft. The instrument approaches to the runway are the best in the region, allowing aircraft to fly as low as 250 feet above the ground in inclement weather situations.
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Options for the Future
Examining the status of the Airport, there are three main options for moving forward with the Airport: the first is that the Airport remains status quo, the second being solvency, and the third option being the development of a Prosperity Hub. The Loomex Group determined the following conclusions after careful examination of each scenario:
1. Status Quo: The Township of Georgian Bluffs requires support to continue leadership of the Airport to better utilize the site and its lands and appropriate levels of business development and marketing initiatives. If operations remain status quo, it is not sustainable with annual deficits of approximately $300,000.
2. Solvency: The Airport’s current economic impact on the region is $2.4 million through direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts. Closing the Airport would negatively impact the economy. Other considerations have negative and direct impacts on the economy, including the approximate $1.4 million identified for Airport closure, in addition to intangible costs that could increase the closure fee to upwards of over $2.5 million. When combining the total economic loss and closure costs, the financial impact could reach more than $5 million for the Township. Aside from the expense, solvency would result in the loss of the region's only Transport Canada Certified Airport.
3. The Airport as a Regional Asset Introduced as the Prosperity Hub: Grey County Economic Development, Think Canada, potential investors, and The Loomex Group recognize the Airport’s potential. It should remain open, regionalize, and become the economic driver. In summary, the effect of a fully developed Prosperity Hub has the ability to deliver $44.5 million from job creation to the local economy. Based on a 31% development rate in the next ten years, the property tax estimate is $9.6 million generated from the Airport and its lands.
This study examines the Prosperity Hub concept and improves the Airport's viability as a regional asset, offering recommendations and opportunities for investment and business pursuance to move the Airport and region forward with a sound decision-making and planning process.
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Prosperity Hub Concept
The model to be proposed based on the Study results is a Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub (Hub). The Hub would be a regional model of sustainability that would encompass several areas of focus working together to enhance tourism and self-reliance for the Airport and the local area community. The Study identified that the infrastructure to support these areas is lacking in the region.
Under the idea of the commons are the Hub's key areas of focus:
Aviation and Aerospace Aviation Education Aviation Commercial and Industrial Development Non-Aviation Commercial and Industrial Development Tourism
Utilizing the land as a revenue and development resource to meet the larger needs of the region makes the creation of the Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub achievable. The Hub would integrate sustainability, innovation, economy, and employment into the Airport lands’ design concepts and benefit the Grey and Bruce Counties. Ultimately, this design could generate significant profit for the region over ten years.
The Hub model would incorporate key areas that will support the region, known as the “commons” of the Hub. The commons are listed as follows:
Adventure Commons Business Commons Learning Commons Aerospace Commons Wiarton Keppel International Airport
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Wiarton Keppel International Airport – The Airport is the driving force at the centre of the Hub; it hosts the Hub’s economic growth potential through development on the lands. The Airport supports on-site businesses and the development and growth of General Aviation and aviation-related activities. Areas of focus for the Airport include Aviation & Aerospace, Aviation Education, Aviation Commercial & Industrial Development, and Tourism.
Aerospace Commons – These Commons within the Hub will serve and support the Airport. Direct and indirect aviation-related services fall under these Commons and industry-related manufacturing, research, and technology. The Aerospace Commons areas include Aviation & Aerospace, Aviation Education, Aviation Commercial & Industrial Development.
Learning Commons – Having these Commons on-site at the Airport provides an opportunity for collaboration with educational institutions and public and private training schools. There is also potential for partnerships between the Learning Commons and other Commons for research and development. The area of focus for the Learning Commons is Aviation Education.
Business Commons – The Hub’s design for the Business Commons maximizes the employment lands available with commercial and industrial development. The land could support businesses and research, manufacturing, and warehousing. With nearby Bruce Power, the Business Commons can help both the organization and the regional supply chain involved in the processes at Bruce Power and draw in and support similar like- minded businesses. Any business growth could be supported by having an active certified Airport on-site. The Business Commons areas include Aviation Commercial & Industrial Development, Non-Aviation Commercial & Industrial Development.
Adventure Commons – This Commons focuses on travel and tourism-related activities for the Grey-Bruce Region. Activities could include vacation charters and visitor travel. The Airport can support the Adventure Commons as a driver in tourism to support hiking, diving, and the national park with sightseeing tours and more. The area of focus for this Commons is Tourism.
The Hub, under its commons and supported by the areas of focus, would provide a combined network of opportunities and support for new ventures and development across multiple areas. The model would provide the resources to attract and retain complementary business for the pillars while significantly drawing to the larger region.
Economic Recognizing the Airport's economic benefits to the region and delving further into the analysis of the various studies for both airport and non-airport lands, the financial benefit of a shared ownership model and a collaborative approach to development emerged for future growth of the Airport lands.
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There were key areas identified throughout the Study to increase the Airport’s feasibility to be a regional asset. Employment Lands and business development present an opportunity to create a Prosperity Hub concept at the Airport.
The Airport supporting the nuclear supply chain of 60 to 70 companies that were identified in consultation with Bruce Power, the Nuclear Innovation Institute, and the Organization of Canadian Nuclear Industries was an opportunity readily identified. Bruce Power supported the Airport and its growth and sees possibilities in using the Airport in the future. This is one of several driving factors for the inspiration and design of the Airport Lands as a feasible, sustainable, and innovative hub.
Like-minded businesses can establish themselves at the Prosperity Hub within the region, accessing all the necessities and close proximity to the Greater Toronto Area. Grey and Bruce Counties are ideally situated and offer a beautiful landscape catering to both work and play, which would be promoted to attract and retain employees who desire the work-life balance that has become very important in the wake of the pandemic.
The economic impact for the construction of the Prosperity Hub is $1.7 million for every building of 10,000 square metres and approximately $550 thousand for every ten full-time permanent employees per annum for a total of $2.2 million. The table below summarizes the GDP and the economic output.
Table 1: Summary of GDP and Economic Output
Employment Average Bruce Income Simple Multiplier Non- (Census Canada, October 6 Residential Construction .802 2017) (Statistics Canada; Simple Multiplier, 2017) 30 per Building $71,193.00 $ 1,712,903.58 10,000 m2 10 Employees $71,193.00 $ 570,976.86
Table 2: Direct Impact of a Fully Developed Prosperity Hub Estimate
Prosperity Hub Estimated Job Estimated Payroll Fully Developed Creation (Direct Impact) All Commons 963 $ 44,506,506
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Financial The financial forecast of the introduction of the Prosperity Hub is a profitable venture for the Airport Lands.
The Prosperity Hub has been estimated with a phased approach for each of the Commons over a ten-year period with the considerations of minimal financial investment. The financial analysis is structured to estimate the revenues and costs associated with each of the Commons and current operations of the Airport. These estimates are without considerations for the grants that would be sought from the various levels of government for investment into the employment lands (Section 13.0 Funding Opportunities lists the readily available grants for infrastructures such as sewer and water; major building repairs).
The Corporate structure and distribution of revenues and costs are to be determined by forming a working group. To establish the potential of the Airport Lands, there has been no assumption for how these would be distributed or controlled.
A business case needs to be developed to compare the options and the available funding, and the presented financials do not consider: • Funds through grants from various levels of Government • More rapid growth of the General Aviation land requiring additional hangars • A strategy and implementation of fixed-base operation services • Changes to the airport governance model reflected in the airport financials
The majority of the Airport Lands would remain as leased lands; however, the Non-Aviation Industrial and Commercial Lands may be a combination of lot sales and/or leased land depending on investor preference, as either may be more attractive. For example, lending institutions may want the investor to own the property and building while other investors may be able to finance their own build in a lease scenario. For the financial analysis, the scenario of lot sales is used.
To be successful, the Prosperity Hub requires dedicated resources for marketing and a leader that has a diverse multi-disciplined background to implement all phases and to attract investors.
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Table 3: Summary of The Prosperity Hub Financials Inclusive of All Commons
Revenues Costs Net Year 1 $535,202 $850,593 -$315,391 Year 2 $726,646 $1.118 M -$391,262 Year 3 $845,567 $1.138 M -$292,241 Year 4 $1.277 M $1.265 M $11,628 Year 5 $912,924 $1.141 M -$227,835 Year 6 $990,444 $1.129 M -$139,494 Year 7 $1.073 M $1.149 M -$76,268 Year 8 $1.161 M $1.170 M -$9,330 Year 9 $1.255 M $1.200 M $54,549 Year 10 $1.356 M $1.225 M $130,332
Total $10.132 M $11.387M
Table 4: Property Tax of the Prosperity Hub Estimatations
Total
Year 1 $194,293 Year 2 $425,017 Year 3 $662,269 Year 4 $858,960 Year 5 $975,215 Year 6 $1,084,944 Year 7 $1,194,678 Year 8 $1,304,417 Year 9 $1,414,160 Year 10 $1,523,907 Total $9,637,860
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Niagara Escarpment Plan / Niagara Escarpment Commission The main objective for the Airport property should be to remove the Niagara Escarpment Plan (NEP) designation on the lands. While some of the Airport lands fall under the NEP, not all of the lands are encompassed with this designation. The lands that fall under the NEP can be used for development if approved by the Niagara Escarpment Commission (NEC), and there is potential that the NEP could be amended based on the proposal or use of the area.
The NEP has land use policies, designations, and criteria for any development within the NEP area. Any proposed development in the NEP area requires a Development Permit from the NEC, which may apply to development on the Airport lands that fall within the geographic limits of the NEP. Not all Airport lands fall under the NEP limits, and, therefore, not all Airport lands are subject to the NEP policies.
This designation of areas under the NEP aims to minimize impact and prevent further urban growth encroachment on the Escarpment. Any plans or proposals for development must be submitted for evaluation but may be permitted, depending on the conformation, to certain development criteria and development objectives of the NEP.
Recommendations
From the data collection, review and analysis, the Study results include seven recommendations that include:
Recommendations
The Airport remains open and is deemed the Business Airport of the region focused on attracting industry opportunities in aviation and aerospace, general aviation, medevac, education, and charter flight services. (Section 3.12 Aviation and Aerospace and Secton 5.6 Aviation Commercial & Industrial Development)
Airport lands are deemed employment lands to develop the Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub, which incorporates the phased development of its areas of focus: Aviation and Aerospace, Aviation Education, Aviation Commercial & Industrial Development, Non- Aviation Commercial and Industrial Development, and Tourism. (Section 2.5 Grey- Bruce Prosperity Hub Concept)
A working group is formed immediately with the Township of Georgian Bluffs and Grey County to champion the Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub’s ownership, structure, and development. (Section 9.2 Prosperity Hub Governance)
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Recommendations
A Municipal Services Corporation (O.Reg. 599/06, 2018) is formed to govern and operate the Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub, including the Airport comprised of Grey County or Grey and Bruce Counties, or Grey and Bruce Counties and the Township of Georgian Bluffs. (Section 9.2 Prosperity Hub Governan)
A Grey-Bruce Airport Network is developed to raise awareness and promote the regions’ airports. The Airport Network considers joint marketing, procurement, cost- saving, and the sharing of specialty equipment (Section 3.11 Aviation and Aerospace)
Secure a dedicated business development resource with a background in aviation and aerospace to stimulate and expand the Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub’s aerospace components. (Section 9.1 Prosperity Hub Governance: Development Board)
Create a business plan to support the Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub development and to help support securing funding from various levels of government and the private sector. (Section 9.1 Prosperity Hub Governance: Development Board)
Short-Term Action Items The summary of the recommended short-term action items from each section of the report outlines the steps to the roadmap to success.
Section Short Term Action Items
2.5 1. Work in conjunction with the NEC to remove NEC Development Control from Airport Lands.
3.12 1. Generate a marketing strategy to attract GA tenants. 2. Seek PPP for t-hangar investment and development. 3. Issue an RFP to attract small regional carriers. 4. Adopt operational and governance models for the Airport. 5. Develop the Grey-Bruce Airport Network initiative. 6. Develop a strategy and implement fixed-base operation services.
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Section Short Term Action Items
4.2 1. Develop a strategy to attract a flight school and related services such as sightseeing tours and charter services.
5.7 1. Execute the business development strategy. 2. Establish ongoing connections with Bruce Power, Nuclear Innovation Institute, Organization of Canadian Nuclear Industries, and the nuclear supply chain. 3. Implement a marketing strategy to attract commercial and industrial aviation and aerospace companies and facilitate development. 4. Create and implement a strategy to attract commercial air operators.
6.3 1. Seek funding opportunities to develop shovel-ready lots, including servicing. 2. Investigate PPP strategies for development. 3. Implement a marketing strategy to attract non-aviation commercial and industrial development, emphasizing being a component of the Hub and access to Airport services. 4. Review current agriculture lease agreements. 5. Seek new agricultural lease opportunities.
7.1 1. Initiate conversations with Parks Canada. 2. Work with Parks Canada and the tourism industry to develop strategies to facilitate the tourist movement throughout the region. 3. Develop relationships with tourism operators and associations to assist in business attraction for the Hub.
13.1 1. Complete the business plan for the Hub. 2. Meet with various levels of government to seek funding to support the Hub infrastructure development costs. 3. Continue to review and monitor potential government funding programs. 4. Seek opportunities for private sector partnerships
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Study Methodology
The Loomex Group formed and led a multidisciplinary project team specializing in various sectors to ensure the report and recommendations provided were viable and sound options. Alongside The Loomex Group of Companies, other members included KMD Planning, Acorn30 Manufacturing and Ag Marketing Experts, and Molly Conlin Design.
To gain insight into the Airport and to gather information for the Study, The Loomex Group launched a comprehensive review of the Airport that included an analysis of current opportunities and assessment of Airport status, research of industry trends, stakeholder consultations, and explored the potential of the region with assistance from many highly skilled and field-specific companies. The scope of work included: • A review of previous Airport studies and reports • A review of previous community studies and reports • Consultations with stakeholders including MP, MPP, Municipal, Indigenous Communities, Métis Nation of Ontario, businesses, economic development, aviation businesses, business industry, and Bruce Power Executives • Identifying and validating opportunities • A review and assessment of governance and operational models • A review of the other airports in the region • A regional outlook to determine the strengths, key assets, and drivers of the industry • A financial review of Airport operations and infrastructure • An economic review of the Airport’s impact on the surrounding area
The review determined that the Airport requires infrastructure and upgrades, and additional grants, funding, and resources to cover these expenses. The Airport’s potential is underutilized and investing in the land is recommended to bring employment and revenue to the area.
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Table of Contents
Background 1
Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub Concept 4 Planning Opinion 8 Proposed Site Plan 10 Preliminary Airport Master Development Plan 11 Recommendation 13 Short-Term Action Items 13
Aviation & Aerospace 15 Opportunities in Aviation 15 3.1.1 General Aviation 15 3.1.2 Charter Flight Services 16 3.1.3 Scheduled Service 16 3.1.4 Air Cargo 17 3.1.5 Fixed-Base Operator (FBO) 17 Airport Operational Models 18 3.2.1 Municipally Owned and Contracted Management 19 3.2.2 Other Airport Operational Models 20 Airport Governance Control Models 21 3.3.1 Municipal Department/Division 21 3.3.2 Commission/Board of Directors 21 3.3.3 Advisory Board 22 Air Traffic Forecast 23 3.4.1 Current Air Traffic 23 3.4.2 Local and Itinerant Traffic 23 3.4.3 Air Traffic Benchmarking 24 3.4.4 Aircraft Movement Forecasts 25 3.4.5 Growth Model 25 3.4.6 Local Movements Forecast 26 3.4.7 Itinerant Movements Forecast 27 Role of Airports in the Region 29 Joint Purchasing 30 Joint Marketing and Business Development Strategies 30 Operational Staffing Supports 31 Southern Ontario Airport Network (SOAN) 31
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Airport Economic Impact 32 Recommendations 33 Short-Term Action Items 34
Aviation Education 36 Flight Training Activities 36 4.1.1 Global Demand/Supply Outlook for Pilots 37 4.1.2 Pilots’ North American Demand/Supply Outlook 38 Short-Term Action Items 40
Aviation Commercial & Industrial Development 42 Approved Maintenance Organization (AMO) 42 Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) 42 Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) 42 Supporting Regional Supply Chains 42 Aerospace Development Lands 43 5.5.1 Aviation Services 43 5.5.2 Development Site and Phasing 44 Recommendation 45 Short-Term Action Items 45
Non-Aviation Commercial & Industrial Development 47 Light Industrial Park 47 Agriculture 49 Short-Term Action Items 49
Tourism 51 Short-Term Action Items 52
Potential Ownership Models 53 Georgian Bluffs 53 Grey-Bruce Combined Ownership 53 Private Ownership 54 Public/Private Partnership (PPP) 54 Summary 55
Prosperity Hub Governance 56 Development Board 56 Recommendation 58
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Financial 60 Capital Requirements 62 10.1.1 Runway Rehabilitation Year 2023 62 Airport Capital Infrastructure 63
Airport Solvency 67
Regional Economic Portrait 68 Economic Portrait 68 Tourism Portrait 68
Funding Opportunities 69 Short-Term Action Items 69
Recommended Implementation Plan 70
Stakeholder Consultations 71 Community Survey 72
References 73
Appendix
Appendix A: Planning Opinion Report Appendix B: Preliminary Airport Master Plan Detailed Components Appendix C: The Role of Airports in Southern Ontario Appendix D: Air Traffic Growth Models Appendix E: Aviation and Aerospace Industry in Southern Ontario Appendix F: Solvency Appendix G: Economic Outlook of Ontario Appendix H: Airport Economic Impact Appendix I: Funding Sources Appendix J: Financials Appendix K: Stakeholder Consultation & Community Survey
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List of Tables Table 1: Summary of GDP and Economic Output v Table 2: Direct Impact of a Fully Developed Prosperity Hub Estimate v Table 3: Summary of The Prosperity Hub Financials Inclusive of All Commons vii Table 4: Property Tax of the Prosperity Hub Estimatations vii Table 5: Forecast of Airport Movements Growth Rate 2021-2030 26 Table 6: Forecast of the Airport’s Annual Local Movements, 2021-2030 27 Table 7: Forecast of the Airport’s Annual Itinerant Movements 2021-2030 28 Table 8: Summary of the 2020 Direct, Indirect and Induced Economic Impacts 32 Table 9: Municipality Ownership Under Georgian Bluffs 53 Table 10: Municipalities in Grey and Bruce Counties 54 Table 11: Prosperity Hub Commons Assumptions and References for Calculations 61 Table 12: Runway Rehabilitation Cost & Funding 62 Table 13: Airport Rehabilitation Costs 63 Table 14: Prosperity Hub Summary 65 Table 15: Solvency Costs 67 Table 16: Relevant Provincial Policy Statement Policies 78 Table 17: Township Zoning By-Law 87 Table 18: Zone Requirements (Source: Township Zoning By-law) 88 Table 19: Township Zoning By-law Environmental Protection (EP Zones) 88 Table 20: Forecast of Airport Movements Growth Rate 2021-2030 97 Table 21: Forecast of the Airport’s Annual Itinerant Movements 2021-2030 98 Table 22: Airport Private Hangars Lease Term Date and Square Footage 106 Table 23: Hangar Purchase Cost 106 Table 24: Office Space Leaseholder and Term of Lease in Main Terminal 107 Table 25: Solvency Cost Review 111 Table 26: Summary of the 2020 Direct, Indirect and Induced Economic Impacts 117 Table 27: Grant/Funding Opportunities 119 Table 28: Incorporation Costs 125
List of Figures Figure 1: Aerial View of the Airport by Edward Matthews Photography i Figure 2: Airport Entrance Sign 6 Figure 3: Sample Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub Sign 7 Figure 4: Sample Exterior Signage 7 Figure 5: Sample Aerospace Interior Banner 7 Figure 6: Overview of the Property, Source: Township of Georgian Bluffs 8 Figure 7: Proposed Site Plan 10 Figure 8: Preliminary Airport Master Plan, KMD Planning March 2021 11 Figure 9: Current Responsibilities of Airport Owner and Airport Manager 20 Figure 10: Total Aircraft Movements (2018 - 2020, Annual), Local and Itinerant Traffic 23
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Figure 11: Total Aircraft Movements (2017 - 2020, Monthly), Local and Itinerant Traffic 24 Figure 12: Total Aircraft Movements (2017 - 2020, monthly), the Airport & YOS 25 Figure 13: Forecast of Airport Local Movements, 2021-2030 26 Figure 14: Forecast of Airport Itinerant Movements, 2021-2030 27 Figure 15: Geographic Map of the Region Airport Locations 29 Figure 16: CAE Forecast of Pilot Demand by Region 37 Figure 17: 2018-2028 Pilot Population Forecast 37 Figure 18: The Gap between the Annual Pilots Trained in the U.S. and the Airline Industry Actual Need (Airline Pilot Hiring Outlook, 2021) 38 Figure 19: Original Airmen Certificates Issues by Category 39 Figure 20: Canadian General Aviation Market 44 Figure 21: Organizational Structure 57 Figure 22: Overview of the Property, Source: Township of Georgian Bluffs 76 Figure 23: General vicinity of Airport Lands within NEP Plan Map 7 81 Figure 24: Bruce County Interactive Map, March 2021 82 Figure 25: Grey County GIS, March 2021 83 Figure 26: Bruce County Interactive Map, March 2021 84 Figure 27: Bruce County Interactive Map, March 2021 86 Figure 28: Schedule ‘A’ - Map 1 Township of Georgian Bluffs Website, March 2021 87 Figure 29: Existing Conditions Plan 89 Figure 30: Sub Area A - Public Campus 90 Figure 31: Sub Area B - Flight School/FBO 91 Figure 32: Sub Area C - Hotel 91 Figure 33: Area D1 - Aerospace Commercial and Industrial 92 Figure 34: Sub Area D2 - Aerospace Commercial & Industrial 92 Figure 35: Sub Area E - Agro-Food Incubator 93 Figure 36: Map of International and Regional Airports in Southwestern Ontario 94 Figure 37: Ontario Municipal Airports Update (Ministry of Transportation, 2011) 95 Figure 38: Municipal Airports in Southern Ontario as of 2011 95 Figure 39: Aircraft Engine Equipment & Components Manufacturers 99 Figure 40: Aircraft Landing Gear System & Components Manufacturers 100 Figure 41: Aircraft Structural Assembly and Components Manufacturers 100 Figure 42: Avionics, Electronics, and Aircraft Systems Manufacturers 101 Figure 43: Manufacturing Support Businesses in Southern Ontario 101 Figure 44: MRO and Aircraft Modification Businesses in Southern Ontario 102 Figure 45: Original Equipment Manufacturer in Southern Ontario 102 Figure 46: Research and Development Organization in Southern Ontario 103 Figure 47: Space System Equipment and Services Providers in Southern Ontario 103 Figure 48: Technical Services Providers in Southern Ontario 104 Figure 49: Unmanned Aerial Systems Manufacturers in Southern Ontario 104 Figure 50: Ontario Historic Labour Productivity Growth, (Ontario Ministry of Finance) 113 Figure 51: Projected Regional Population Growth from 2019 to 2046 113
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Figure 52: Ontario Historic Exports, (Ontario Ministry of Finance) 114 Figure 53: Distribution of Business Aviation Aircraft Across Canada (CBAA, 2017) 118
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Background
The Township of Georgian Bluffs is in Southwestern Ontario and is part of Grey County. It has a population of 10,479, with 63.5% between 15 to 64 years of age. The County has a population of 93,830, with 61.1% between the ages of 15 to 64 years of age (Statistics Canada, 2016 Census of Population, 2017).
Grey and Bruce Counties are well-known and oft-visited tourist hotspots frequently ranked in Ontario's top three destinations attracting Canadian and international tourists. This area boasts many regional services, including shopping centres, business services, Georgian College, and a hospital. The Bruce Peninsula National Park, the busiest National Park in Canada, is a regional attraction known for its landscape formations, including the Grotto, Flower Pot Island, and Singing Sands.
The Bruce Trail, internationally recognized with Georgian Bay views, runs along the Niagara Escarpment and brings many visitors to the area. This trail continues near the Airport and runs up to Tobermory. The Bruce Caves are also nearby the Airport and are popular with both residents and tourists. Adding to the tourism draw is Sauble Beach, a seven-mile landscape along Lake Huron, which draws thousands of visitors during the summer months.
The lush forests and hundreds of inland lakes and rivers are great for hunters and anglers, with direct access to Georgian Bay and are near Griffith Island. There is also a rich heritage with several Indigenous and Métis Communities.
The Bruce Region is home to Bruce Power, a nuclear and medical isotope provider that employs over 7,000 people (3,000 added recently for a new project). It is the world’s second-largest nuclear facility and has redevelopment plans over the next 30 years, attracting suppliers to the Grey-Bruce region. In the past few years, over 60 nuclear suppliers have come to the area bringing a highly skilled workforce. The Nuclear Innovation Institute opening will help Bruce Power’s development to support clean energy and other innovative development ideas.
Other major employment sections include agriculture (a significant economic driver for the counties), manufacturing, and health care. Both counties support businesses through workforce, facilities, infrastructure, and development opportunities.
The Airport is 2.4 km east of the community of Wiarton in the Town of South Bruce Peninsula. It is owned and operated by the Township of Georgian Bluffs, and an interim management contract with a private service provider is in place. Two full-time municipal employees support the operations, with one seasonal employee during the winter months.
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The Airport was built in 1948 by the Canadian Federal Government as an emergency airport located on the Toronto-Winnipeg corridor with two 4,100-foot runways and a radio range station. Runway 05-23 was extended in 1954 to 6,000 feet to accommodate jets and other large aircraft operations but later reduced to 5,000 feet. In 1970, the terminal was built to accommodate passengers and office space.
The Canadian Air Transportation Administration (CATA) was a Transport Canada Division that managed and operated Canadian airports from the 1960s to the 1980s. Any investment in infrastructure, such as runways and terminals, came from a Treasury Board Capital Fund. All revenue from landing fees, terminal charges and ticket tax went to a Consolidated Revenue Fund. Airports were not expected or required to be self-financing or to have a break-even budget. Decisions surrounding Airport capacity were made nationally and did not necessarily reflect an airport's specific role or importance to its region.
In 1992, Transport Canada transferred major Canadian airports to local authorities to operate in a more commercial and cost-efficient manner. A few years later, in 1994, the National Airports Policy was announced, and Nav Canada became the private corporation to operate Canada's Air Navigation System.
In 1995, the Townships of Wiarton, Keppel, and Amabel took over the Airport management for three years, hoping that it would lead to a 10-year arrangement with municipal ownership; that ownership transfer from Transport Canada took place in 1996.
In 1999, Wiarton and Amabel amalgamated into the Town of South Bruce Peninsula, and in 2001, Keppel joined the Township of Georgian Bluffs, thus evenly splitting the Airport ownership between the two municipalities. In 2015, the Township of Georgian Bluffs purchased South Bruce Peninsula's share and became the Airport's sole owner, still retaining sole ownership.
The Airport occupies 815 acres of land and serves diverse traffic, including recreational, charter, medevac, training, and corporate aircraft. Aircraft types and sizes range from small single-engine aircraft and helicopters to turbine and jet aircraft.
The Airport is operational 24 hours per day, seven days per week and can support aircraft operations in both visual flight rules (VFR) and instrument flight rules (IFR) conditions.
The Airport's movement areas consist of two runways, a joining taxiway system, and a public apron. The primary runway, Runway 05-23, is 5,028 feet long by 150 feet wide with an asphalt surface. The secondary runway, Runway 11-29, is 3,456 feet long by 100 feet wide with a gravel surface and is currently closed for use by aircraft traffic.
The Airport is host to Nav Canada’s backup navigation equipment for Central Ontario and is designated as a recovery airport between Toronto and northern Ontario. The Department of National Defence (DND) is a regular Airport user, and the Canadian Coast Guard leases
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space on site. The Coast Guard Operations cover the area on and around Lake Huron from the Wiarton Airport. Medevacs also use the Airport regularly, as the Wiarton Hospital does not have a helipad. In non-critical emergency conditions, helicopters are required to land at the Airport, and fixed-wing medevacs require a runway for landing.
The Airport hosts an onsite human weather operation system (HWOS), which will soon transition to an automated weather operation system (AWOS) and will be the only Airport in the region with automated weather. The Airport boasts a seasonal Canada Customs Airport of Entry designation, which is seasonal to support summer tourism allowing international travellers the ease of flying right into Grey and Bruce Counties.
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Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub Concept
The Hub concept encompasses five key areas of focus, and within each are several identified opportunities for development across multiple areas. The Hub creates a staple focus around the Airport to attract and retain complementary business for the commons while simultaneously triggering a significant draw of business and people to the Grey and Bruce regions' communities.
Employment lands and business development present an opportunity to create a prosperity Hub concept at the Airport. There are approximately 815 acres of prime land surrounding the Airport, and the potential strategic development as employment lands could significantly benefit the region. This report presents the opportunity and collectively refers to these lands as the Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub (Hub) throughout the document.
The Ontario Government defines employment lands as “areas designated in an official plan to clusters of business and economic activities, including, but not limited to, manufacturing, warehousing, offices, and associated retail and ancillary facilities” (Government of Ontario, 2019).
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Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub
Development opportunities are abundant at the Prosperity Hub. With the central landmark being the Wiarton Keppel “It is our International Airport, the Hub is a gateway to the Region. professional The developable land, as employment lands, has the potential to attract development and jobs to the area. planning opinion that the Wiarton Wiarton Keppel International Airport Keppel International As the only Certified Airport in the Grey and Bruce Airport is ideally Counties, Wiarton Keppel International Airport boasts a full- suited to serve Grey service terminal building, a sizable runway with extension and Bruce Counties opportunities, and can accommodate a wide range of and their member aircraft. The Airport can support airport activity growth in the communities. future and is the driving force behind the Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub's economic growth potential. The prospect of realizing an Airport Grey-Bruce Aerospace Commons Master The Aerospace Commons within the Prosperity Hub are Development Plan lands designated to serve and support the Wiarton Keppel is supportive of all International Airport. Airside services and aviation-related concerned planning services, either direct or indirect, would be in the Aerospace documents and Commons as well as industry-related light manufacturing, research, and technology. related economic development Grey-Bruce Adventure Commons policies.” Travel and tourism-related activities are the focus of the - KMD Planning Adventure Commons within the Prosperity Hub. A gateway to the region, up to approximately 11 acres are dedicated to tourism to support vacation charters and visitor travel. The Airport can serve as a driver of tourism activities to attract visitors to the region and highlight local amenities and agricultural-based tourism. Possible uses for these lands include conference facilities, hotels and restaurants, and other related commercial services.
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Grey-Bruce Business Commons The Prosperity Hub's Business Commons design maximizes available employment lands by providing commercial and industrial development land. The Business Commons' land is designated to support small to medium-sized businesses, agri-business, research, light manufacturing and warehousing not directly related to aerospace.
Grey-Bruce Learning Commons The Wiarton Keppel International Airport provides opportunities for collaboration with educational institutions at both the secondary and post-secondary levels and private training schools. Further, there is the potential for educational partnerships on the Prosperity Hub's agricultural lands with potential for agri-food research and development and experimental farms. The Learning Commons sets out to create a space within the Prosperity Hub to invite and explore these partnerships.
Where Opportunity Takes Flight The Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub is a place where people can start and grow businesses. It is a place where people can learn and develop their skills and where visitors can discover the area and support businesses throughout the region. It is a place … “Where Opportunity Takes Flight.”
Sample Wayfinding Figure 2: Airport Entrance Sign
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Figure 3: Sample Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub Sign
Figure 4: Sample Exterior Signage
Figure 5: Sample Aerospace Interior Banner
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Planning Opinion The Loomex Group retained Kevin M. Duguay Community Planning and Consulting Inc. to prepare a Planning Opinion regarding the Wiarton Keppel International Airport's development opportunity.
In this regard, the Project Planning Consultant’s Report (Appendix A) includes the following:
• Land Use Policy review. • Land Use Zoning Regulations review. • Preliminary “Conceptual” Master Development Plan for the Airport; and • Preliminary “Conceptual” development for sub-areas of the proposed Airport Master Development Plan.
The Property
Figure 6: Overview of the Property, Source: Township of Georgian Bluffs The subject lands, being Wiarton Keppel International Airport (Airport), are located at 501262 Grey Road 1. The Airport lands straddle both Bruce County and Grey County, located within both the Town of South Bruce Peninsula and the Township of Georgian Bluffs.
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The majority of the lands are within Grey County, except the small field to the southwest of the runway, which is located within the built-up boundary of the Town of Wiarton (Bruce County). The dividing line between the Counties is illustrated in Figure 6.
The Airport lands are approximately 815 acres in area, some of which are developed and contain the Airport’s runways and related infrastructure, including a terminal building with a restaurant.
Planning Documents Reviewed
The following planning documents were reviewed for purposes of the preparation of this Planning Opinion:
• 2020 Provincial Policy Statement (2020 PPS) • 2017 Niagara Escarpment Plan (2017 NEP) • 2010 Bruce County Official Plan • 2019 Grey County Official Plan • 2004 Town of South Bruce Peninsula Official Plan • Township of Georgian Bluffs Official Plan • Town of South Bruce Peninsula Zoning By-law • Township of Georgian Bluffs Zoning By-law
Additionally, a review of various documents provided by The Loomex Group relating to airport operations, policies and regulations was completed. The Airport Lands' potential development represents opportunities to enhance an existing Federally Regulated Airport in a coordinated manner (upper and lower-tier local governments), that would generate significant and diverse employment and economic opportunities.
The Project Planning Consultant's professional opinion is that the development of the Airport property would be consistent with the policy directives of the 2020 Provincial Policy Statement. The complete Planning Opinion Report forms Appendix A of this report.
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Proposed Site Plan Figure 7: Proposed Site Plan
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Preliminary Airport Master Development Plan
A Preliminary (Conceptual) Airport Development Plan has been prepared. The Plan is comprised of a series of sub-areas, summarized as follows: Figure 8: Preliminary Airport Master Plan, KMD Planning March 2021
Sub Area Title Area ha Sub Area Title Area ha A Public Campus 9.39 F Agricultural 42.36 Flight Future Aviation B 5.58 G 2.53 School/FBO Building C Hotel 4.75 H General Aviation 9.81 Aerospace Non-Aviation D1-D2 Commercial and 48.38 I Commercial and 45.66 Industrial Industrial Future Agro-Food E 1.01 J Commercial and 28.43 Incubator Industrial
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Regard for the following formed part of the preparation of the preliminary (conceptual) plans: • Existing roadway network • Potential new driveway facilities • Inter-connection between sub-areas (driveways, common parking areas) • Niagara Escarpment Lands (environmental) • Area Land Uses
The plan has yet to be evaluated from an environmental, traffic, or civil engineering perspective. It is understood that the implementation of any Airport Master Plan would require a comprehensive analysis, including: • Master servicing – Infrastructure Plan • Master grading – Drainage Plan • Master Storm-water Plan (including low-impact development measures) • Master Landscaping Plan • Site Signage/Way-finding Program • Site-Urban Design Program
The foregoing is typical of employment land (industrial plans of subdivision) development and would allow input from the County, Municipal Conservation Authority, Niagara Escarpment and other stakeholder agencies/departments. Additionally, opportunities for public consultation could be incorporated into the advancement of the Airport development plans/program.
Refer to Appendix B for detailed figures that show the maximum area for development.
Summary
The Preliminary (Conceptual) Airport Master Development Plan illustrates the following development features:
• Proposed new building areas • Proposed new parking areas • Potential new driveway facilities, including internal network • Future development lands • Environmental area
As noted, an area has been identified for environmental purposes, predicated upon current land use designations and regulatory controls. These Lands would require an environmental study/analysis before any development approvals could be considered.
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The various planning documents, provincial, county, and local, all encourage the development of the Airport Lands. The Airport is a Federally Regulated Facility, having a generous land supply available for expansion purposes.
Our professional planning opinion is that the Wiarton Keppel International Airport is ideally suited to serve Grey and Bruce Counties and their member communities.
The prospect of realizing an Airport Master Development Plan is supportive of all concerned planning documents and related economic development policies.
Recommendation From data collection, review and analysis, the planning recommendation is:
• Airport lands are deemed employment lands to develop the Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub, which incorporates the phased development of its areas of focus: Aviation and Aerospace, Aviation Education, Aviation Commercial & Industrial Development, Non-Aviation Commercial and Industrial Development, and Tourism.
Through stakeholder consultations, it was determined that there is a lack of employment lands in the region. The Airport is one of the only areas with potential for employment land development.
The employment lands and business development present an opportunity for a Prosperity Hub at the Airport. Through this study, it was identified that there are key areas for the region to focus on developing and bringing in business opportunities. Using the Airport lands, these key focus areas can co-exist and thrive as an area of innovation and business development.
Short-Term Action Items
• Work in conjunction with the NEC to remove NEC Development Control from Airport lands.
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Aviation & Aerospace
Opportunities in Aviation
3.1.1 General Aviation General Aviation (GA) is often measured by activity in aircraft movements, either a take-off or a landing at the Airport. Movements can be in local traffic, where the aircraft takes off and lands at the same airport, or itinerant, where the aircraft arrives from or departs to a different airport. GA flights are often specific to a region, and runway activity usually does not correlate to significant socio-economic variables. GA is a significant component at the Airport, and there are many opportunities in this sector to attract business to the Airport.
A flight school can be established at the Airport and can fulfill a variety of roles. Operating in multiple capacities, the school could offer additional tourist sightseeing flights marketed within and outside the region to draw visitors to the Hub.
Flights could also be provided to other airports in the region as a sightseeing component, allowing the public to access various places in the Counties, depending on the destination; this would be a good connection for the Grey-Bruce Airport Network (Section 4.6).
Tourism is an enormous opportunity and, as such, is identified as one of the Hub’s focus areas (Section 8.0). However, the connection with aviation is evident with opportunities for flights from the United States markets and domestic vacation travel by working with existing tourism agencies and offering packages such as fly-ins for golf, fishing, scuba diving, and sightseeing.
For the local general aviation community, opportunities exist to build hangars on-site with a great deal of developable land and the ability to offer long-term leases. Another possibility for the Airport and GA community is to host airport events such as fly-in breakfasts, open houses, and education fundraising events for local and itinerant traffic. The restaurant and competitively priced fuel are significant in attracting itinerant GA traffic to the Airport and should continue to be supported and promoted.
Pilots will also fly to various airports for aircraft repairs or cleaning, and opportunities could be pursued together, such as aircraft cleaning while having a meal at the restaurant.
Another avenue to explore is having a part-time Aviation Medical Examiner affiliated with the Airport. With the various medical categories for pilots, most have to complete a medical examination every five years (with many completing an exam annually).
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3.1.2 Charter Flight Services An opportunity exists for the Airport to host leisure charter flights, which are successful at other airports. It involves a 737 Aircraft coming into the Airport and flying to destinations such a New York, Nashville, and St John’s, for an extended long weekend trip. Working with tour operators, the organization and marketing of the destination charters could be supported. Airlines with surplus aircraft can utilize the Airport to operate the return-trip charter flight. The lower approach minima at the Airport could support a reliable air charter operation.
Other charter options are also available, such as chartered flights between airports in the Grey-Bruce region, charter flights to and from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), or other specific charter destinations.
3.1.3 Scheduled Service The Airport is certified and can host regular commercial air service. An Air Service Analysis conducted in 2017 showed a fair volume of passengers during the summer season (mid- May to mid-October – both residents and tourists) that would support a few weekly flights to and from the GTA. Adding to this is a percentage of air traffic required for the Bruce Power Rehabilitation Project. Consultations with business and political partners also demonstrated the need for a reliable air travel service with a schedule to suit the business community.
Considering road quality, travel time and weather conditions from the GTA to Wiarton and the Bruce Power site, it is recommended to work with a small air carrier to launch a commercial air service to Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport.
From a tourism perspective, having a regular service would be advantageous and would also help the Airport qualify for infrastructure funding programs such as Airports Capital Assistance Program (ACAP). The Airports Capital Assistance Program is a federal government initiative designed to help smaller airports with essential, safety-related infrastructure projects or equipment. To be eligible, airports must offer regularly scheduled commercial passenger service, have handled over 1,000 passengers over the last three years or be designated as a “Remote Airport.”
Such a service would generate additional revenue from landing and parking fees, fuel flowage and Airport improvement fees. Car rental services would be required but could also generate revenue for the Airport.
To ensure success of such a service, research should be done to determine what could most support the service. This would include determination of a schedule that would support the business and tourism components, review of price points of the service, engagement with users, and a structured marketing campaign in the Grey-Bruce region, those working at the Bruce Power site, the supply chains supporting the site and tourists
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from the GTA. The Airport fee structure should undergo a review along with aviation services and supporting equipment.
3.1.4 Air Cargo For air cargo to succeed, there must be one or several local businesses looking to ship or receive a volume of products. Some of the key regional sectors that could support such a project are manufacturing, energy, and agriculture.
With the 5,000 ft runway, the Airport can host various regional-sized aircraft, including turboprop and narrow-body jets.
Air cargo would require warehouse construction, including cold storage, depending on the type of products and the aircraft size. It could warrant Fixed-Based Operator’s (FBO) services for fueling and de-icing.
Air cargo could be a valuable revenue generator for the Airport, but it is typically market- driven. The Airport should maintain close contact and communicate with economic development organizations, as they are usually associated with drawing new business projects such as this to the region.
3.1.5 Fixed-Base Operator (FBO) A Fixed-Base Operator (FBO) is an enterprise that operates on-site at an airport. They provide aviation and aeronautical services, such as fueling, hangar use, aircraft parking, and other similar services.
Typically, an FBO will support the general aviation operators at an airport and any support to business and commercial traffic. A FBO's focus typically lies with itinerant traffic, who rely on the services provided when they fly into the airport.
A FBO typically provides the following services to aviation traffic: • Fuel sales • De-icing services • Aircraft storage • Aircraft ramp services (towing, parking, etc.) • Minor aircraft repair • Restroom facilities • Telecommunication services • Waiting areas • Ground transportation arrangements • Food vending • Flight planning and weather information areas
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• Rest lounges for pilots and crew • Aviation supplies (i.e., navigation charts, manuals) • Accommodation or reservation arrangements • Concierge service for passengers and crew
FBO services are usually included in a service agreement and come at no extra cost to the airport owner. The FBO pays a fuel flowage fee to the airport and bears any land lease rates and taxes.
Since the Wiarton Airport attracts many kinds of corporate aircraft, having an on-site FBO would be beneficial to service and entice the business community to fly into Wiarton. With the addition of de-icing services, the Airport may become more popular as a fly-in destination in the winter months.
As the Airport grows over time, there may be a shift from smaller aircraft towards larger and heavier corporate aircraft. With having a FBO on-site, there may be the option for these larger aircraft to hangar their planes at the facility, providing safety and security for the aircraft owner.
The Airport could potentially save on capital costs and investment by having a FBO on-site. There would be no need to purchase fuel trucks, de-icing vehicles, and fluid, build hangars, etc., as these services could all be provided by a FBO.
The Township would benefit from issuing a request for a proposal for a provider of fixed- based operation services for the Airport.
Airport Operational Models Across Canada, there are various governance structures for airports based on their size, role, and facilitated activities. There are several governance options for airport owners to consider, ranging from ending operations, development, and overseeing an airport authority.
For each operational model, there are various governance models as well. Airports can be managed and operated at a Government level and/or by Municipal, Provincial, or Federal Agencies. Owners can also contract a third-party company to manage the operations or for the contracted provider to report to a specific commission or committee.
It takes planning, marketing, and development to ensure the success of airport governance structures. Owners must evaluate and select the best governance and operating model to ensure success based on specific key performance indicators.
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There are various operational and governance models, and airports can fall into one of the categories listed below or have a hybridized model through multiple structures.
It is recommended that the Airport Owner joins a public-private partnership for the benefits seen from this operational model. With this partnership, the Owner oversees the contract for management and operations, however, bears no responsibility for salary, benefits, replacing an airport manager or staff in the case of resignation, illness or vacation, and does not have to provide support for any staffing issues. The Owner will not need an aviation subject matter expert on staff, and the contractor provides backup support and resources to ensure the Airport fulfills all obligations as per the Canadian Aviation Regulations. With a private partnership, the contractor often has a vested interest in ensuring the Airport’s success.The contractor also promotes and explores business development opportunities for the Airport. Often the contracted company has many connections through aviation and aerospace and experience working with companies to promote the Airport and bring in potential clients and customers.
3.2.1 Municipally Owned and Contracted Management With the Municipally Owned and Contracted Management Model, the Airport is municipally owned and operated, and a contracted Airport Manager oversees the day-to-day operations and ensures regulatory compliance. The Wiarton Keppel Airport is currently operating under this model.
The owner retains legal obligations for the Airport, provides the operational staff as required, and is responsible for planning. Daily operations and compliance with Transport Canada and Canadian Aviation Regulations, emergency preparedness, budget forecasts, and safety management become the contracted Airport Manager's responsibilities.
The advantage to a Municipally Owned and Contracted Management Operational Model is that the owner can control and steer any development of the Airport and can ensure that growth contributes to the community's economic health and fits into the overall Master Plans as required.
This approach could be more costly than a Municipally Owned and Operated Model. Often, contracted management has an incentive to develop an airport's growth and operating revenue neutral as quickly as possible with the community's best interest in mind. Under the current agreement, the contracted Airport Manager is responsible for the operations, administration, and maintenance of the Airport, and the Township has final authority over the Airport's financial, human resources, operating and capital budgets.
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Figure 9: Current Responsibilities of Airport Owner and Airport Manager
Owner: Airport Manager:
Final Authority of Operations Operations & Administration
Monitor/Evaluate Contractor Safety & Compliance Marketing & Business Marketing & Development Expenses Promotion
New Service Airport Budget & Development Costs Financial Management
Terminal Building Provisional Use for Airport Operations General Maintenance
3.2.2 Other Airport Operational Models
Municipal Management and Operations With this operational model, the airport is owned, operated, and managed by the municipality, and the staff are municipal employees. The airport owner is responsible for managing the day-to-day operations and staffing needs and ensuring staff training and airport operations comply with regulations.
The advantages of a municipally owned and operated airport include: • Complete control of airport development to ensure continuity between the airport and any municipal initiatives or master plans; • Coordinated efforts with tourism and promotion, economic development, or planning; • Availability of funding strictly for municipalities or government agencies; and • Coordinated marketing efforts with economic development for aviation or non-aviation- related business relocation to the municipality.
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Contracted Management and Operations With a Contracted Management and Operations Model, a private service provider manages and operates the airport through a contractual agreement with the airport owner. The contractor is responsible for overseeing the daily airport operations and eliminates the owner's need to handle the airport administration, operations, maintenance, compliance, and emergencies.
The contracted company provides continuity with position support and typically a support team providing efficiencies with scale and aviation expertise. The benefit of a complete contract agreement is that the contractor has: • A vested interest in removing redundancies; • A vested interest in the airport and its growth; • A team with experience, scale, and support resources in aviation; • A comprehensive understanding of industry best practices and regulations; • Experience with budget planning, municipal governments, and airport grants/funding applications; • Become a partner in aviation with an associated ability to network with pre-existing contacts; and • Remained current on relevant industry news.
Airport Governance Control Models
3.3.1 Municipal Department/Division With the governance falling under a municipal department or division, the department would create airport policy, ensure airport compliance, promote the airport through business development efforts, ensure a comprehensive safety management system, and recommend operating and capital budget items.
This governance model's key positions include an Airport Manager that reports to the CAO or the appointed delegate.
3.3.2 Commission/Board of Directors An Airport Commission is a group of individuals appointed to the Commission and has expertise in planning, managing, developing, and promoting the airport. This model brings a business-style focus to airport governance to identify and manage airport operations with financial stability.
An Airport Commission should have a consistent membership which typically does not include any elected officials. The Commission's appointments could be for an extended- term beyond the length of a municipal election cycle. Commissioners bring crucial skills to
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the Airport's development and use local and industry contacts to promote airport growth.
The Commission is primarily a policy-making body, establishing the policies by which the airport operates. The Commission sets a clear set of strategic priorities to move the airport forward. They are also responsible for the following:
• Providing input on and approving the Airport Master Plan • Reviewing and approving the airport's capital and operating budgets • Recruitment, retention, and dismissal of the airport's President and CEO • Setting the airport's level of service • Keeping abreast of aerospace industry trends, best practices, and opportunities • Primarily a policy-making body, establishing the policies
Key positions within this model include an airport President and CEO reporting to the Commission/Board Chair.
The Airport Board would become a subcommittee of the Board of Directors of the Hub, as detailed in Section 9.0 on Governance.
3.3.3 Advisory Board An Airport Advisory Board comprises members with expertise or backgrounds in the planning, development, management, and operations of an airport. Unlike the commission structure, the Advisory Board has no authority to make decisions and provides recommendations to the owner relating only to airport matters.
The Advisory Board may: • Provide input for strategic, business, and marketing plans • Make recommendations for capital and operating budgets • Provide input on the hiring of key leadership positions • Recommend changes to the airport's level of service • Promote and assist with business development efforts • Keep abreast of aerospace industry trends, best practices, and opportunities
Key Positions within this model include an Airport Manager that reports to the municipality.
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Air Traffic Forecast The existing air traffic figures and future developments that may positively impact aircraft movements at the Airport were analyzed. A series of assumptions incorporated multiple forecasting methods to project aviation traffic over the next ten years.
3.4.1 Current Air Traffic Before the telecorder was installed on-site in September 2017, movements were based on estimates and did not provide a complete and accurate picture of aircraft landing and take- off activities at the Airport. Thus, this section does not include air traffic before 2017.
3.4.2 Local and Itinerant Traffic Itinerant movements are when an aircraft travels from one airport to another. Local movements are when an aircraft movement remains close to the airport, for example, training flights, equipment tests, etc.
The Airport has experienced a significant increase in Itinerant Air Traffic from 2,989 in 2018 to 3,892 in 2019, representing a growth of 30% in one year.
In 2020, itinerant movements dropped slightly by 360 for a total of 3,532, and local movements exhibited a sharp decreasing trend from 1,377 in 2018 to 269 in 2020, reflecting an 80% decrease in local aircraft landing and take-off activities. Overall, the Airport's total aircraft movements experienced a 9.3% increase (+406 movements) between 2018 and 2019 and decreased by 20% (-971 movements) in 2020.
Figure 10: Total Aircraft Movements (2018 - 2020, Annual), Local and Itinerant Traffic
6,000
4,772 5,000 4,366 3,801 4,000 3,892 3,000 3,532 2,989 2,000 1,377 880 1,000 269
0 2018 2019 2020
Total Movements Itinerant Movements Local Movements
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A closer examination of the Monthly Aircraft Movements Data at the Airport exhibits seasonality. Aircraft movements at the Airport usually peak during the summer months (June, July, and August) and are at the lowest in January. Annually in January for the past three years, aircraft movements at the Airport drop to less than 100. With spring in March, aircraft movements slowly climb until May, where a surge can happen in the summer months.
In each recorded year, the highest monthly record of total movements at the Airport is approximately 750 aircraft movements in the summer months, 70% attributed to itinerant activities. Figure 22 displays a particularly noteworthy mention, where local aircraft movements dropped significantly in 2020, and the itinerant movements remained relatively the same as in previous years.
Figure 11: Total Aircraft Movements (2017 - 2020, Monthly), Local and Itinerant Traffic
Wiarton Keppel International Airport, 2017 -2020 Monthly Aircraft Movements Evolution 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jul Jul Jul Oct Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Jun Jun Jan Jun Jan Jan Mar Mar Feb Mar Feb Feb Nov Dec Nov Dec Aug Sep Nov Dec Aug Sep Nov Dec Aug Sep Sep May May May 2017 2018 2019 2020 (Partial)
Itinerant Movements Local Movements Total Movements
3.4.3 Air Traffic Benchmarking A benchmarking analysis was conducted with aircraft movement data from Owen Sound Billy Bishop Regional Airport (CYOS) to identify any unusual movement fluctuations at Wiarton Keppel International Airport.
CYOS is 42 Kilometres away (direct distance) from the Wiarton Keppel International Airport. Although CYOS has a shorter and narrower runway (3,933 x 75 ft) than the Wiarton (5,033 x 150 ft), the aircraft movements at CYOS usually surpass Wiarton’s because of local training and sightseeing activities at Owen Sound Flight Services.
In 2018, total aircraft movements at CYOS (8,516) were almost double that of Wiarton
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(4,366). However, a significant decrease in air traffic at CYOS can be identified at the end of 2018. In 2019 and 2020, the two airports share a very close movement count.
Overall, the Wiarton Keppel International Airport and CYOS aircraft movement changes have a similar pattern over the last three years.
Figure 12: Total Aircraft Movements (2017 - 2020, monthly), the Airport & YOS
YVV & YOS, 2017 - 2020 Monthly Aircraft Total Movements Evolution 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Jul Jul Jul Oct Oct Apr Oct Apr Oct Apr Jun Jan Jun Jan Jun Jan Mar Mar Feb Mar Feb Feb Nov Dec Nov Dec Aug Sep Nov Dec Aug Sep Nov Dec Aug Sep Sep May May May 2017 2018 2019 2020 (Partial)
Wiarton Keppel International Airport Owen Sound Billy Bishop Regional Airport
3.4.4 Aircraft Movement Forecasts Based on historical data and various expert estimations, it is anticipated that aircraft movements will increase as the Airport recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic and continues to attract more tenants and visitors.
3.4.5 Growth Model As mentioned previously, an Aircraft Movement Telecorder was installed at the Airport in September 2017, and the previous data was unreliable. Five growth models are proposed in the tables below to forecast aircraft movements at the Airport.
Table 2 presents a summary of five growth models. Model 2 is the greatest estimate of growth for itinerant movements but negatively estimates local movements. Growth Model 1 forecasts a large yearly increase in itinerant movements and a significant decrease in local movements. The recommendation is to disregard Models 1 and 2 projections, as they incorporate constraints and limitations of the historic aircraft movement dataset. The forecast estimation results of Growth Models 3, 4, and 5 use the 2019 annual data as a baseline for calculation. Appendix D contains details on each growth model.
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Table 5: Forecast of Airport Movements Growth Rate 2021-2030
Local Itinerant Annual Growth Model Movements Movements Growth
Model 1 (2018 and 2019 Annual) -36.10% 30.20% 9.3% Model 2 (2017 to 2019 Month-to-Month) -14.70% 45.50% 7.1% Model 3 (Population Growth) 1.20% 1.20% 1.20% Model 4 (SOAN Forecast) 1.04% 1.04% 1.04% Model 5 (2.5% Growth) 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
Growth Model 5 – 2.5% Annual Growth Model 5 factors in a 2.5% annual increase to the local and itinerant traffic movements. In the past number of years, the Airport’s itinerant movements exhibited strong growth and are expected to continue in the following years. Despite a decrease in 2020, it is assumed that local movements will bounce back as life, the industry, and the overall economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic.
3.4.6 Local Movements Forecast According to the following forecasts, Growth Model 3, 4 and 5 are labelled as the Average Growth Model, Conservative Growth Model and Optimistic Growth Model, according to each model's respective growth rate presented in the previous section.
The Conservative Model, Average Model, and Optimistic Model estimate that by 2030, local movements at the Airport will grow to 986, 1,003 and 1,155, respectively. This represents an overall growth rate of 12.0%, 14.0% and 31.2%. Figure 13: Forecast of Airport Local Movements, 2021-2030
1,200 1,150 1,155 1,100 1,050 1,000 1,003 986 950 900 850 800 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Optimistic Model (2.5%) Average Model (1.2%) Conservative Model (1.04%)
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3.4.7 Itinerant Movements Forecast As presented in Figure 14 the Conservative, Average, and Optimistic Growth Model forecast Airport’s itinerant movements to reach 4,361, 4,438, and 5,107, respectively, in 2030. The ten-year growth is equivalent to an increase of 12.0%, 14.0% and 31.2%, respectively.
Figure 14: Forecast of Airport Itinerant Movements, 2021-2030
5,300 5,100 5,107 4,900 4,700 4,500 4,438 4,300 4,361 4,100 3,900 3,700 3,500 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Optimistic Model (2.5%) Average Model (1.2%) Conservative Model (1.04%)
Table 6: Forecast of the Airport’s Annual Local Movements, 2021-2030 Optimistic Model Average Model Conservative Years (2.5%) (1.2%) Model (1.04%) 2019 (Historic) 880 880 880 2020 902 891 889 2021 925 901 898 2022 948 912 908 2023 971 923 917 2024 996 934 927 2025 (Forecast) 1,021 945 936 2026 1,046 957 946 2027 1,072 968 956 2028 1,099 980 966 2029 1,126 991 976 2030 1,155 1,003 986
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Table 7: Forecast of the Airport’s Annual Itinerant Movements 2021-2030 Optimistic Model Average Model Conservative Years (2.5%) (1.2%) Model (1.04%) 2019 (Historic) 3,892 3,892 3,892 2020 3,989 3,939 3,932 2021 4,089 3,986 3,973 2022 4,191 4,034 4,015 2023 4,296 4,082 4,056 2024 4,403 4,131 4,099 2025 (Forecast) 4,514 4,181 4,141 2026 4,626 4,231 4,184 2027 4,742 4,282 4,228 2028 4,861 4,,333 4,272 2029 4,982 4,385 4,316 2030 5,107 4,438 4,361
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Role of Airports in the Region The Hub’s Airport (Wiarton Keppel International Airport) would be identified as the business hub for employment lands. Upon review, there are roles for the other airports in the Grey- Bruce region. Creating a Grey-Bruce Airport Network could allow airports in the area to participate in various efficiencies, cost-sharing measures, and joint marketing. Each airport caters to the General Aviation Community and, in some cases, supports tourism, aerospace, local business and provides transportation to and from specific areas within the region. Figure 15 is a geogaphic map of airports in the region.
The Wiarton Keppel International Airport is approximately 42 km by road from the Owen Sound Airport. Owen Sound Council may wish to consider the role the Owen Sound Airport plays in the network of airports in the region. Given the proximity of the Owen Sound Airport and Wiarton Keppel International Airport, consideration should be given to the Owen Sound Airport's future and the potential opportunity to focus on one airport in the area. If Owen Sound Airport is deemed an essential asset to the community, efficiencies such as shared management and staffing structure with Wiarton Keppel International Airport should be explored. Figure 15: Geographic Map of the Region Airport Locations
Creating a Grey-Bruce Airport Network allows airports to work collaboratively to attract businesses and people into the area and share potential benefits across the region. Airports in the region would benefit from joint marketing and strategic positioning.
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Fostering relationships with tourism and hospitality businesses and associations to create destination travel packages could be one area of opportunity. Non-certified airports provide an essential role for visitors to gain access to specific locations throughout the counties.
Joint Purchasing From a purchasing perspective, there are many benefits to ensuring that the region's airports are connected. Through bulk-buying or joint purchasing incentives, each airport could reduce costs for commonly used airport-related maintenance materials and supplies.
In addition to purchasing, the Airport network could work collaboratively on joint proposals to request tender and quotation documents for service to all airports in the region.
Some of the joint purchasing products could include: • Line painting • Crack sealing • Tree cutting • OLS surveys • Fuel deliveries • Specialty equipment
Joint Marketing and Business Development Strategies The airports can attract more businesses and clients into the Grey-Bruce regions through business development and marketing strategies. Through a shared role in regional economic development, the counties and airports can market the Grey-Bruce Airport Network as a system of airports, providing information through best practices while supporting each of the airports in a marketing capacity. Joint business development enhances aviation awareness across North America and can attract aerospace and aviation to the Grey-Bruce region.
An Enablement Team can be created that includes members from economic development, business, and airport operations sectors. The team's objective would be to create a mandate to promote the airports and encourage commerce in the region.
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Operational Staffing Supports As noted above, the Grey-Bruce Airport Network would formalize a platform for airport operators to work effectively and efficiently. Some areas that could benefit from operational staffing supports include, but are not limited to: • Sharing of best practices • Technical assistance • Shared equipment (if required, and when possible) • Joint training • A joint forum as an outlet for colleagues to ask questions and share knowledge • Emergency back-up support
Although the general public perceives that airports compete for the same business, they should work together to move people and supplies in and out of the area. Each airport has a critical role in contributing and creating sustainable jobs. If for no other reason, consideration of the system concept would benefit from looking for efficiencies to save ratepayers money.
Southern Ontario Airport Network (SOAN) The role of SOAN is to support the climbing demand for air travel that will come as the region continues its growth over the next three decades. SOAN ensures that Southern Ontario is the premier location for aviation business and investment.
The SOAN member airports collectively adopted the following priorities:
• Raise awareness and profile of SOAN • Promote business attraction through tourism, trade, and direct foreign investment • Develop a common database that will allow airports to understand the future needs of the growing region and to identify future air service development opportunities
Member airports of SOAN include the following: • Toronto Pearson International Airport • Lake Simcoe Regional Airport • Region of Waterloo International Airport • Oshawa Executive Airport • Kingston/Norman Rogers Airport • Peterborough Airport • Niagara District Airport • Windsor International Airport • Hamilton John C. Munro International • Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport Airport • London International Airport
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Since the inception of SOAN, members have seen significant collaboration amongst the airports. SOAN airports have seen an uptake in business inquiries, resulting in aviation and aerospace businesses relocating to airports located in the network.
As Southern Ontario's population grows, Toronto Pearson will reach passenger activity capacity and available lands for supply chain aerospace business and related infrastructure. The SOAN concept promotes airport options for interested parties, and ensures that potential business does not leave Southern Ontario for other destinations.
Member airports are chosen airports based on their contributions to the aerospace business and connectivity in Southern Ontario. All member airports serve under a regional model and are certified airports to serve their region.
There is a possibility for the Wiarton Keppel International Airport to become a SOAN member with the proposed Regional Model and the Hub.
Airport Economic Impact Total Economic Impact Table 7 provides a detailed overview of the recurrent and non-recurrent economic impacts generated by the Airport and its tenants for each category and type of impact. Together, direct expenditures contributed to an economic impact of $1,633,838 (65.8%) in 2020. The estimated indirect and induced effect of the economic impacts is $522,828 (21.1%) and $326,768 (13.2%), respectively. In total, the Airport’s economic impact on the region is $2,483,433.
Table 8: Summary of the 2020 Direct, Indirect and Induced Economic Impacts
Category Direct Effect Indirect Effect Induced Effect Total
Total Jobs 17 5 4 26 Created (14 FTE & 3 PTE) (4 FTE & 1 PTE) (3 FTE & 1 PTE) (21 FTE & 5 PTE) Gross Payroll $931,985 $298,235 $186,397 $1,416,617 Provincial Government Payroll $56,860 $18,195 $11,372 $86,427 Tax Revenue Federal Government Payroll $150,809 $48,259 $30,162 $229,229 Tax Revenue Total Government $207,669 $66,454 $41,534 $315,656 Revenue
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Category Direct Effect Indirect Effect Induced Effect Total Municipal Taxes $5,154 $1,649 $1,031 $7,834 Corporate $455,030 $145,610 $91,006 $691,646 Expenses Past Capital $34,000 $10,880 $6,800 $51,680 Investments $1,633,838 $522,828 $326,768 $2,483,433 Grand Total 65.8% 21.1% 13.2% 100%
Recommendations From data collection, review and analysis, the Aviation & Aerospace recommendation is:
• The Airport remains open and is deemed the Business Airport of the region focused on attracting industry opportunities in aviation and aerospace, general aviation, medevac, education, and charter flight services.
• A Grey-Bruce Airport Network is developed to raise awareness and promote the regions’ airports. The Airport Network considers joint marketing, procurement, cost-saving, and the sharing of specialty equipment.
The Airport is a key focus in the Prosperity Hub concept. It can facilitate the development of the prosperity hub and can draw in business to the Airport and the Hub as a whole. The infrastructure at the Airport and its certification status can attract clients from the aviation and aerospace industry while still maintaining and supporting general aviation tenants and users and supporting medical evacuation flights regularly. The Airport is the key factor that can drive the Prosperity Hub's economic growth potential.
While the Wiarton Keppel International Airport is the only Certified Airport in Grey and Bruce Regions, there is merit and benefit to retaining other airports. Wiarton Keppel would be identified as the Business Hub, and creating an airport network could be accomplished.
Creating a Grey-Bruce Airport Network could allow airports in the area to participate in various efficiencies, cost-sharing measures, and marketing. All airports cater to general aviation and, in some cases, support tourism, aerospace, and local business and provide transportation to and from specific areas within the region.
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Counties and airports could market the "system of airports," providing information through best practices while supporting each of the airports through joint marketing, joint procurement processes, sharing of specialty equipment, and could endeavour to find ways for cost-saving measures across the network.
Developing an enablement team for the area, the Grey-Bruce Airport Network could attract more businesses and clients into the Grey-Bruce regions through business development and marketing strategies. The enablement team could create a mandate to promote the airports and encourage commerce in the area. It could enhance aviation awareness across North America and attract aerospace and aviation to Grey and Bruce through joint business development.
Short-Term Action Items
• Generate a marketing strategy to attract GA tenants. • Seek PPP for t-hangar investment and development. • Issue an RFP to attract small regional carriers. • Adopt operational and governance models for the Airport. • Develop the Grey-Bruce Airport Network initiative. • Develop a strategy and implement Fixed-Base Operation services.
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Page 35 Feasibility Study: Education
Aviation Education
Flight Training Activities Southern Ontario has a long history in flight training which goes back to the British Commonwealth Air Training Plan (BCATP) in 1939. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, a relatively positive outlook for the commercial airline industry and a relatively high number of expected retirements within this occupation helped drive employment in the medium term and increased demand for flight training to municipal airports in Ontario.
With the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in March 2020 and strict public health measures, flight training activities experienced a significant decline. However, as the economy recovered from the early stage of the pandemic, flight training at municipal (and some regional) airports became busy once again.
In November 2020, the Region of Waterloo International Airport claimed the top spot as Canada's busiest airport, with more than 13,500 departures and landings taking place that month, almost all attributed to the flight school's aircraft movements. Flight schools across Southern Ontario see people with more leisure time to complete their pilot training due to slow economic growth caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Some schools faced long waiting times to take-off, smaller touch-and-go periods in-between commercial flights, and increased turbulence in the wake of larger aircraft.
Despite an unprecedented number of pilots currently being furloughed, industry experts agree a pilot shortage will still come into place in the medium to long-term future when the pandemic comes to an end. The demand for flight training will undoubtedly crowd airports in Southern Ontario with busy aircraft movements in the long term.
As the market is still growing, there is an opportunity to recruit and attract a flight school certified to train international students. A flight school would be an ideal addition and revenue generator for the Airport and would have a strong economic impact on the community with the influx of 20 to 50 pilots every six months. However, a flight school could not support a business model based only on local/regional students.
The flight school may increase airport revenue from fuel sales, landing fees, the building of additional ramps, hangars with a ground lease, and more business for the restaurant. In turn, the community has a host of economic impacts from an increase in travel, accommodations, food/restaurant, leisure, entertainment, and housing for those that choose to remain in the region. These opportunities are based on market statistics and trends presented hereafter.
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Promoting the aviation trades and a host of additional programs should be considered to foster the growing needs for workers in aircraft maintenance and refurbishment, airport operations and management, manufacturing, and repair and overhaul. Offering a Secondary School Cooperative Program to expose potential careers to youth is a great community initiative to keep the population from relocating.
4.1.1 Global Demand/Supply Outlook for Pilots The CAE 1 Airline and Business Jet Figure 16: CAE Forecast of Pilot Demand by Region Pilot Demand Outlook predicts that more than 300,000 new pilots will be needed over the next ten years. All the industry forecasts predict a pilot shortage increase over the coming decades. Boeing Company, in its 2019 Pilot and Technicians Outlook, projects that the world pilot demand will reach 804,000 for the 2019-2038 periods. The Boeing forecast was based on 20 years instead of 10 for the CAE report.
Out of the 300,000 pilots, more than Figure 17: 2018-2028 Pilot Population Forecast 270,000 will be needed by commercial airlines to support pilot replacements and expected passenger growth. The balance will be required by the business aviation industry. Figure 48 provides the breakdown of the number of new pilots needed and total forecasted headcounts over the next ten years for the business jet and airline segments.
* *Including a net 20,000 movement of business jet pilots to airlines.
1 CAE Inc. (formerly Canadian Aviation Electronics) is a Canadian manufacturer of simulation technologies, modelling technologies and training services to airlines, aircraft manufacturers, healthcare specialists, and defence customers.
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The CAE analysis is based on FAA, Eurocontrol, Amstat, IATA, FlightGlobal, and Rolland Vincent Associates data.
Figure 47 shows that pilot replacement will represent less than half of the workforce needs as the soaring demand for air travel is the primary reason for the pilot shortage.
The flight simulation industry is working on advancing the technology to produce better artificial settings of flight and enhanced virtual reality to provide improved hands-on experience to pilots. The objective is to improve the acquisition of knowledge to accelerate the pilot learning curve and reduce simulation hours. The soaring demand for travel, technological improvements, and the new capabilities of Artificial Intelligence (AI) will fuel the flight simulation sector's growth, which is expected to reach $8.03 billion by 2026 2. Based on the same report, it is expected that North America will be the highest revenue- generating region in the future, accounting for 29.3% of the market in 2018.
4.1.2 Pilots’ North American Demand/Supply Outlook To meet the projected demand, a renowned U.S. Flight School (ATP Flight School) estimates that 19,000 pilots will need to be trained each year until 2026 in North America. According to the same analysis, it is estimated that flight schools currently train around 12,000 pilots annually in the United States and 1,200 in Canada. Figure 18 shows the gap between the annual number of pilots trained in the U.S. and the actual need of the airline industry.
Figure 18: The Gap between the Annual Pilots Trained in the U.S. and the Airline Industry Actual Need (Airline Pilot Hiring Outlook, 2021)
2 Reports and Data 2019. Consulted on November 1 2019: https://www.globenewswire.com/news- release/2019/07/11/1881533/0/en/Flight-Simulator-Market-to-Reach-USD-8-03-Billion-By-2026-Reports-And-Data.html
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The projected airline pilot shortage is expected to increase in the coming decades, fueled by the increased demand for air travel, the airline pilot population's ageing, and the overall decline in the number of private and commercial pilots holding active pilot certificates. At the end of 2017, there were an estimated 609,306 active certified pilots in the US. This number has been declining gradually over the past several decades, down from a high of over 827,000 pilots in 1980. Figure 19 shows the declining pattern in the number of issued pilot certificates across all categories since its peak in 1991.
Figure 19: Original Airmen Certificates Issues by Category
Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics, Table 17
A Flight School addition to the Airport requires a structured approach encompassing both Airport and local assets and an incentive to entice a school. A person knowledgeable of flight training activities should be assigned to this task, and a small Business Case prepared with financial and assets/incentives benchmarks to support attraction activities. An airport fee or an incentive strategy should be developed to attract a flight training provider.
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Short-Term Action Items
• Develop a strategy to attract a flight school and related services such as sightseeing tours and charter services.
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Page 41 Feasibility Study: Aviation Commercial & Industrial Development
Aviation Commercial & Industrial Development
Approved Maintenance Organization (AMO) An AMO is recognized by Transport Canada by the issuance of a certificate as an approved maintenance organization. This qualification signifies that the organization is qualified to perform maintenance on an aircraft pursuant to the Canadian Aviation Regulations. The Airport is home to Bayside Aero, an AMO. Increasing the business to the Aviation and Aerospace branch could bring more customers to a local company, such as a paint and refurbishment centre that would be attractive to aircraft owners (due to the lower tax rates and fuel costs).
Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) An MRO is a business that services, repairs, overhauls, and maintains aircraft. This type of organization also provides services such as inspection and testing of aircraft. The aviation industrial and commercial lands would bring like-minded businesses together and would be ideal for developing MRO facilities, such as the repair and overhaul of engines, landing gear, and starter generators. The proximity to carriers/companies in the GTA could be an attractive site for these operations. Expanding MRO activity could be promoted by attending aerospace exhibitions and conferences, participating in industry associations and active recruitment initiatives, or hosting any one of these events within the Business Commons of the Hub. The MRO initiative could support regional aircraft, narrow-body aircraft, business and corporate, and military.
Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) An OEM is a business that manufactures a specific aircraft part or component. The Hub would be an ideal location for OEMs looking to expand their existing operations as large industrial spaces are available. Many OEMs would benefit from the proximity to the GTA, the like-minded business, the employment pool, and the lower costs.
Supporting Regional Supply Chains With Bruce Power nearby, over fifty-five businesses have been brought into the region to support the development and operation of Bruce Power. It is an opportunity for the Airport to support the regional supply chain by transporting any supplies, parts, etc., that are necessary for the operation.
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Aerospace Development Lands The Airport is poised for growth, with the province seeing sustained growth in general aviation activities. The influx of former GTA residents in the Wiarton catchment area supports interest to add more hangars and grow overall airport services. Closure of other airports in the area could result in an increase in business for Wiarton. The Airport should be ready to address these and other opportunities.
One of the first steps toward sustained growth is a structured Hangar Development Area offering various hangar sizes and types. In this sense, the Airport is underserved and lacks a structured path forward and associated marketing efforts.
5.5.1 Aviation Services The D1 and D2 developments noted in the proposed site plan (Section 2.2) will increase aircraft traffic at the Airport, leading to a greater demand for aircraft fuel, hangarage, and maintenance. The proposed Aviation and Aerospace Commons site expansion is expected to make Wiarton Airport more attractive to aviation companies, corporate flight centres, and aviation service groups looking for new sites or expanding activities.
Marketing efforts will have to be conducted to attract new aviation companies to the Airport. These could include developing a unique branding, highlighting the many opportunities and the value proposition of the Airport.
Advertising and marketing should highlight the Airport’s location advantages, such as its uncongested airspace, proximity to Lake Ontario, Huron, and Georgian Bay, and Michigan and Ohio State, and the support from local governments for industrial and commercial developments, and the quality of the lands available for development.
Other potential markets could include companies that offer aerial work, aircraft maintenance and paint shops, and small aircraft manufacturers attracted to Wiarton.
The proposed development phasing is projected over 20 years and encompasses Phase 1 and 2 developments and long-range development planned for Year 20+. To maximize revenue, land that is not ready to be developed could be leased for agricultural use.
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The target customers for the proposed Figure 20: Canadian General Aviation Market Commercial and Corporate Aviation site need direct access to the runway and hangar space for their operations. Error! Reference source not found. shows the number of general aviation aircraft registered in each province. By themselves, Ontario and Quebec represent 50% of the Canadian market.
5.5.2 Development Site and Phasing GA development can be divided into two stages. The first development phase revolves around the construction, on a per demand approach, of a maximum of four stand-alone hangars. It is recommended that these hangars be located in the available space alongside the existing taxiway, as there is road access, reducing the development cost.
Once the row is fully built out, the second development phase can commence, located southwest of the existing General Aviation hangars. The hangar layout will be roughly the size of existing hangars - 2,000 sq. ft. - found in the General Aviation area. The projected expansion will be comprised of sixteen T-hangars.
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Recommendation From data collection, review and analysis, the Aviation Commercial & Industrial Development recommendation (mirroring Section 3.11) is:
• The Airport remains open and is deemed the Business Airport of the region focused on attracting industry opportunities in aviation and aerospace, general aviation, medevac, education, and charter flight services.
The Airport is a key focus in the Prosperity Hub concept. It can facilitate the development of the prosperity hub and can draw in business to the Airport and the Hub as a whole. The infrastructure at the Airport and its certification status can attract clients from the aviation and aerospace industry while still maintaining and supporting general aviation tenants and users and supporting medical evacuation flights regularly. The Airport is the key factor that can drive the Prosperity Hub's economic growth potential.
Short-Term Action Items
• Execute the business development strategy. • Establish ongoing connections with Bruce Power, Nuclear Innovation Institute, Organization of Canadian Nuclear Industries, and the nuclear supply chain. • Implement a marketing strategy to attract commercial and industrial aviation and aerospace companies and facilitate development. • Create and implement a strategy to attract commercial air operators.
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Page 46 Feasibility Study: Non-Aviation Commercial & Industrial Development
Non-Aviation Commercial & Industrial Development
Light Industrial Park The Light Industrial Park is a long-term project that aims to attract light manufacturing, food processing and logistic distribution companies to the region. The Park would support the limited amount of similar space in the region and attract jobs and investment. The proposed location for this development is on the northeast quadrant of the Airport property facing Route 1.
The Park will provide land and infrastructure for companies looking to expand and be in proximity to the Airport. Market research suggests that the Airport should concentrate on attracting industries active in the agri-food, warehousing/distribution, manufacturing, aerospace and aviation and technology sectors, given their high growth potential and their existing presence in the region. Examples of light industries that could be attracted to the Airport include food production, consumer electronics, composite repairs for aviation, marine and other, marine and small engine manufacturing, repair and refurbishing, and printing, to name a few.
Positioning – Markets and Clientele
The Light Industrial Park marketing should highlight the assets and location advantages of the region, including affordable land and rental rates in the region and the low cost of living compared to major centers.
Promotional activities of the future Light Industrial Park should also underscore the transportation ease provided at the Airport with charter and possibly direct commercial flights to the GTA.
Development Site and Building Requirements
It is recommended that the initial section of the Park be located in the northeast quadrant of the Airport property on a 45-acre parcel, with direct access to Route 1. This parcel can be doubled in size (when required). The property could easily support up to 40 lots but without airside access in this first phase. Future expansion of the Light Industrial Park could offer a few lots with airside access. Site development would need to meet TP312 5th Edition and the obstacle limitation surface requirements. At the front of the site, a gas main is accessible, and well-fed water main is available but limited. There is no sewer system available presently.
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There are two concepts for the non-aviation industrial and commercial lands.
Option One:
Prepare sites for sale and create guidelines on the building and landscaping for developers. The revenue associated with this option would derive from the sale of the site, ongoing recovery fees for services and ongoing industrial/commercial property tax. The benefit would be the upfront recovery of funds.
The ongoing revenue stream and the purchaser control the building's options following a detailed guideline for appearance, size, and landscaping as set by the Corporation. The ongoing building maintenance costs and/or capital replacement items would fall to the building owner rather than the Corporation.
Option Two:
Develop the sites and construct the buildings for lease or sale. Under this option, there are two methods for the construction of the buildings. One approach is to collaborate on a Private Public Partnership (PPP) with a developer, and the second method is to solicit responses to a Request for Proposals (RFP).
The negotiations for a PPP would be about what the developer would keep as their cost and revenue share. For instance, to bring the utilities over to each site, perhaps their share is increased by a certain percentage to recognize a return on investment.
In the case of an RFP, the Corporation would be responsible for all aspects of capital investment. In addition, under a lease, the Corporation would stipulate the ownership of costs associated with maintenance but would be fully responsible for the capital replacement items as the building's age.
Recovery of investment under Option Two would be slow when considering either a lease or sale, as the building ideally must suit the purchaser; otherwise, it would require renovations. The other consideration is a build to suit the needs, which would require a lot of time from start to finish. The investment, time, return on investment and project management needed to proceed with this option is also not ideal.
Ultimately, the Corporation's ability to fund a project as large as the Hub under Option Two is not feasible. Therefore, the recommendation is Option One, to recognize revenue in a short time and benefit from the progression. Before construction can commence, the Airport will have to undertake the necessary steps to research funding grants, develop a business case, prepare the site, identify the necessary funding, and do the actual infrastructure extension (if required). With a President/CEO in place and a dedicated marketing resource, the projection is to begin within a two-year time frame.
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Agriculture Both provincial and federal governments invest millions of dollars in protecting Canada’s food supply chain and strengthening biosecurity. The current market rent for agricultural land and farms currently looking for acreage, confirmed through research (University of Guelph - Ontario Agriculture College, March 2021), is $200 to $250 an acre. The only contingency for a reduction would be poor soil, the lay of the land and the ability to operate larger equipment. Otherwise, a full market value should be sought through a small marketing campaign. Another consideration would be a PPP for cash cropping, which has merit from the market research conducted; area farms are looking to partner with landowners. During the agreement, another marketing campaign can attract a developer of an agro-food building or a food processor who would invest in a building to accommodate crop processing.
The proposed model would see the Airport rent land to a developer interested in building the incubator.
Implementation Strategy Phase 1: Market Rent Lease or a PPP agreement. Phase 2: Attraction and retention of an agro-incubator or food processor investor.
Short-Term Action Items
• Seek funding opportunities to develop shovel-ready lots, including servicing. • Investigate PPP strategies for development. • Implement a marketing strategy to attract non-aviation commercial and industrial development, emphasizing being a component of the Hub and access to Airport services. • Review current agriculture lease agreements. • Seek new agricultural lease opportunities.
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Page 50 Feasibility Study: Tourism
Tourism
The Georgian Bay region is an attractive tourist destination with unique excursions and activities, including scuba diving near Tobermory (famous for shipwrecks), rock climbing in Bruce Peninsula National Park, salmon fishing, hiking, and cycling.
The Wiarton Keppel International Airport Economic Impact and Feasibility Study (Explorer Solutions, 2017) listed many opportunities to expand tourism, some of which include: • Tourism packages • Sight-seeing tours • Day trips to learn about the Indigenous Lands • A Charter Operator that could take people to remote hunt camps, a connection between major city centres like the GTA • Crowd out location for Tobermory peninsula visitors • Business visitors from the Bruce Power initiatives and investment
The Airport could initiate a Park and Shuttle Service (branded as Park and Play) targeted at Bruce Peninsula tourists to help the National Parks and the local community develop practical solutions to ease traffic and respond to the demand. Visitors could leave their vehicles at the Airport for the day in a designated parking area and take a shuttle to either Bruce Peninsula National Park or Fathom Five National Marine Park. The shuttle would transport them back to their vehicle. From a stakeholder consultation with the Bruce Peninsula National Park Superintendent, such an initiative would be in the Parks’ interest and would also contribute to reducing the carbon emissions in the region. However, given the unknown factor regarding the Park’s visitor capacity, the initiative would start as a small pilot project to test the concept and evaluate the response. Although this is an opportunity, it is not a focus of the Adventure Commons at this time.
In reviewing the Resort Hotel Study of South Bruce Peninsula, it concluded that there is market support for a hotel and identified that although a specific location was sited, it could be constructed elsewhere.
The design of the Hub includes the development of a hotel. To minimize costs and recognize the most benefit, developing a PPP relationship with a hotel chain to build infrastructure will reduce travel time for visitors, will allow them to arrive to the destination sooner, and will enable them to stay longer to experience the offerings of Grey and Bruce Counties?
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Short-Term Action Items
• Initiate conversations with Parks Canada. • Work with Parks Canada and the tourism industry to develop strategies to facilitate the tourist movement throughout the region. • Develop relationships with tourism operators and associations to assist in business attraction for the Hub.
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Potential Ownership Models
There are several ownership models to consider for Airport Lands and their development. As referenced in Section 1.0 Background, there have been several changes in the Airport ownership, with the Township of Georgian Bluffs as the current owner.
Although there are many different ways to structure the ownership, below are some suggestions for consideration; ultimately, it can be structured in a method that best suits the community.
Georgian Bluffs The current GDP generated from the Airport is $2.4 million.
When partnering with the whole of Grey County for airport ownership, Georgian Bluffs would expand the resources available for capital, which could be structured in several ways. Table 8: Municipality Ownership Under Georgian BluffsTable 8 outlines each of Grey County’s Municipalities, and the Airport ownership could be equal shares to each municipality, or it could be based on a population base.
Table 9: Municipality Ownership Under Georgian Bluffs Municipality Township of Georgian Bluffs Chatsworth Meaford Southgate West Grey Grey Highlands Owen Sound Hanover Blue Mountain
Alternatively, the Township of Georgian Bluffs could determine the amount of ownership they would maintain, and the remainder would be distributed either by population or by dividing the rest by the number of municipalities.
Grey-Bruce Combined Ownership Expanding the tax base for Airport ownership would follow similar suggestions as above. Ownership can be divided equally to each county and further distributed based on equal portions or household tax base per municipality.
Grey County has 47,560 households according to Statistics Canada 2016 and combining Bruce County with its approximately 41,183 households totals a tax base distribution across 88,743 and growing households.
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Table 10: Municipalities in Grey and Bruce Counties
Municipalities Township of Georgian Bluffs Saugeen Shores Meaford Kincardine West Grey Brockton Owen Sound South Bruce Peninsula Blue Mountain Huron-Kinloss Chatsworth Arran-Elderslie Southgate South Bruce Grey Highlands Northern Bruce Peninsula Hanover
Private Ownership An alternative to municipal ownership is to sell the Airport to a private investor who would have care and control of the lands with no long-term revenues to the municipalities it serves.
The current market value is negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and private ownership may not be in the Township’s best interest.
The Township would no longer have control over operational items such as fees, hours of operation and would not receive any of the benefits that the Aiport currently offers. The private owner also has the right to close the Airport at its discretion.
Public/Private Partnership (PPP) In some instances, a public entity and private industry agreement could be feasible, but with the current airport situation and COVID-19 pandemic, the current market value may be deemed much lower than waiting for the aviation industry to rebound, which is the prediction once individuals receive the COVID-19 vaccine.
The value of a PPP that exists is for the development of the Business Park. There is an incentive for a developer to partner with the municipality, as both have a vested interest in achieving similar financial goals as quickly as possible and share in the capital investment required.
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Summary Although the COVID-19 pandemic dramatically “If the municipality impacted the aviation industry, it is essential to was provided with a examine the Airport facts. business plan for Wiarton as a value- Known facts: added project, they • Itinerant traffic remained relatively the same, and could be on board to the local movements were down significantly. support it. They have been looking for • Working at home is the trend, which means partnerships and employees are transitioning from major centres to promotions and buying houses that provide a work-life balance in economic sought-after cottage countries. development help and • Survey forecasts from Expedia Groups 2021 could see having a Travel Trends Report and 2021 Vrbo Trend partner in that regard.” Report (a study conducted with more than 8,000 –Quote from a respondents from across eight countries) show Municipality during that families have 2021 travel plans booked, and Stakeholder Session what is most interesting is that 63% prefer outdoorsy destinations and are opting for flexcations (remote work and destination play). The thoughts behind the influx of planned vacations/flexcations are that the population has been restricted to a specific area for too long and is looking to travel. • Resorts are starting to accommodate workcations, a break from working at home and collaborating with your coworkers at a destination that creates an office setup for the guests. • The Grey-Bruce Region is a popular destination for tourists, has a strong business foundation with investment and growth plans, and is a highly sought-after community to live, play, and work. • The Township of Georgian Bluffs cannot sustain the Airport capital investments and the status quo independently. • Over 75% of the general population supports the Airport as an economic driver with the right combination of infrastructure, business and tourism. Considering what is known, the Airport has the potential to utilize the lands and invest in a Business Park that will result in jobs, revenues, sustainable communities, and turnkey innovation. This business case should not be overlooked.
It is recommended to pursue equal ownership of the Airport between the Counties of Grey and Bruce with distribution to the municipalities based on population and entering into PPP ownerships to develop the Airport Lands.
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Prosperity Hub Governance
Developing a suitable governance model for the proposed Hub is crucial to ensure its success in meeting the goals, strategic mandates, and financial incentives. The recommendation is for Grey and Bruce Counties to develop a Corporation and jointly manage and operate the Airport Land Development Project.
Development Board A Development Board can be created with a diverse representation from different counties and levels of vested interest and appoint a President/CEO responsible for all areas related to the development. The benefits of forming a development board are that each municipality has a voice, can utilize existing resources, and has more control over the project's progression, resulting in faster reaction time if issues arise.
It is recommended that a Development Board is formed and could be comprised of: • County Wardens • County Council • Municipal Council • Community Members • Aviation and Aerospace Professionals • Business Professionals
Once the Board is in place, the first order of business would be to acquire a President/CEO who has an in-depth understanding of the steps necessary to undertake the large project and has both experience and industry contacts in each of the proposed Business Park Commons.
The President/CEO would be responsible to the Development Board for writing business plans, finding funding sources, Airport governance and operations, project implementation, marketing, infrastructure development, and project management, including budgets.
The President/CEO’s priority tasks would be: • Creating a Business Plan • Securing funds for runway rehabilitation to keep aviation growing and progressing • Site preparation for non-aviation activities • Hiring a dedicated marketing staff member
Figure 21depicts a possible organizational structure with critical areas of responsibility.
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Figure 21: Organizational Structure
The Corporation
Administration
• Funding Research & Applications Development Board • Business Development • Business Attraction & Retention • Project Management President/CEO • Marketing and Promotion • Budgets • Presentations • Business Plans
Aviation & Aerospace Non-Aviation Commercial & General Manager Industrial General Manager
• Airport Management • Business Development • Airport Operations • Business Attraction & Retention • Business Development • Building & Facility Maintenance • Business Attraction & Retention • Budgets • Infrastructure • Infrastructure • Budgets • Capital Requirements • Capital Requirements • Agriculture Leases & Facilities • Building & Facility Maintenance • Education Leases & Facility • Land Development • Tourism Leases & Facility • Facility Development
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Recommendation From data collection, review and analysis, the Governance recommendation is:
• A working group is formed immediately with the Township of Georgian Bluffs and Grey County to champion the Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub’s ownership, structure, and development.
• A Municipal Services Corporation (O.Reg. 599/06, 2018) is formed to govern and operate the Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub, including the Airport, that could be comprised of solely Grey County, or Grey and Bruce Counties, or Grey and Bruce Counties and the Township of Georgian Bluffs.
• Create a business plan to support the Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub development and support funding from various government levels.
• Secure a dedicated business development resource with a background in aviation and aerospace to stimulate and expand the Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub's aerospace components.
A working group should be designed to bring together individuals who possess the relevant knowledge and skills to act individually or collectively to undertake assigned tasks and activities to achieve the project's objectives. This will ensure all issues related to planning, compliance, environment, and development are reviewed and processed efficiently. The working group will have terms of reference outlining the group's specific mandate and the role, and there will be a fixed term for the group members. The number of members and the composition of the group will also need to be determined.
A Municipal Services Corporation (MSC) is a corporation whose shares are owned by a municipality and other public-sector entities. A new governance model associated with Wiarton Keppel International Airport through a MSC could provide the following benefits:
• Professional governance and management • Increased debt financing flexibility • A vehicle for shared-service arrangements with other municipalities • Full cost recovery for water, wastewater and communal tile services, street lighting and stormwater management facilities
A resource with an in-depth understanding and experience in the aviation and aerospace industry and contacts in the industry would allow the Prosperity Hub's aviation components to thrive. This resource would be responsible for the business development and attraction, and retention of the hub's aviation and aerospace business
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A Business Plan would set out the Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub's blueprint for the corporation's work over the next few years. With this plan, the Grey-Bruce Prosperity Hub will progress on its strategic goals and objectives and improve the core services. Under the guidance of the Corporate Leadership Team, Senior Management Team, and staff input across the corporation, the Business Plan would shape the corporation's future actions and ensures that the services delivered remain efficient, effective, sustainable, and relevant.
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Financial
The Prosperity Hub financials are estimated with a phased-in approach for each Common over ten years with the considerations of minimal financial investment. The structure of the financial analysis estimates the revenue and cost associated with each Commons and does not include grants that can be pursued from the government as investments into the employment lands. Section 13.0 Funding Opportunities lists the readily available grants for infrastructure such as sewer and water, Prosperity Hub development, tourism, etc.
The Corporate structure and distribution of revenues and costs are to be determined by forming a working group. For the purposes of establishing the potential of the Airport Lands, there has been no assumption for how these would be distributed or controlled. The assumptions, references, or calculations for each line item are listed for each line item.
A majority of the lands would remain as leased lands; however, the Non-Aviation Industrial and Commercial Lands may be a combination of lot sales and/or leased land depending on investor preference as either may be more attractive. For the financial analysis, the scenario of lot sales has been used.
Development Fees are a method to have a development review process to control the construction of structures, for example at the Peterborough Airport. Ontario’s Building Code Act and the Ontario Building Code do not apply to structures related to the federally regulated undertaking of aeronautics. The development fees that would typically apply through a municipality to construct a commercial facility are not applicable for buildings on Airport Lands. This streamlined approach would be similar to a building permit that sets out certain development and construction process requirements consisting of site-specific geotechnical review, required site plans, building plans, and engineering and specifications. The details for a memorandum of understanding for the cost allocations need additional discussion within the working group and the corporation's formation.
Utility/service fees are implemented to recover the costs of bringing hydro, water and sewer to the sites either leased or sold. The private General Aviation hangars may opt to have a septic system, or utilities hooked up to the site at their own cost.
The financials for the ten-year Airport operations forecasts were determined through the analysis of aviation traffic returning to pre-covid levels based on historical patterns from major impacts to the industry and current status, industry experience of airport operation, as well as the following indicators from the KPMG Aviation Sector Analysis (March 2020) Industry Trends and Requirements (pg. 54-60) report conducted for Transport Canada.
• Between 2000 and 2015, domestic passenger traffic for all Canadian airports grew by 53% (or 2.9% per year). • Since 2000, international traffic for all Canadian airports has more than doubled, with a growth of 108%.
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• Bombardier expects the business aviation segment to endure strong growth as the global economy recovers.
The Prosperity Hub Business Commons (non-aviation commercial and industrial development) financials have a phased-in approach, with the overall development being at a modest 31% completion after ten years. The majority of the Airport Lands would remain as leased lands; however, the Non-Aviation Industrial and Commercial Lands may be a combination of lot sales and/or leased land depending on investor preference as either may be more attractive. For example, lending institutions may want the investor to own the property and building while other investors may finance their own build in a lease scenario. For Business Commons, the scenario of lot sales is used.
For the Prosperity Hub to be successful, it requires dedicated resources for marketing and a leader that has a diverse multi-disciplined background to implement all phases and attract investors.
Table 11: Prosperity Hub Commons Assumptions and References for Calculations
Commons Assumptions
Business • Price $30,000/acre Commons • 29.25 Acres of 112.79 developed over ten years (Non-Aviation • Building Size 20,000 sq.ft. per Acre Finished Value of $2,000,000 Industrial and (sizes range from 10,000 sq.ft to 50,000 sq.ft for light industrial Commercial) buildings; based on $100/sq.ft.) • Total Buildings 26 (4 per year Year 1 through 3, 2 per year Year 4 through 10) • $0.08/sq.ft of land for utility recovery fee; utilities to be brought to site on an as developed basis • Access Roads developed as needed $333 m2; total road requirement 2,792.97 m2 • Builder responsible for site preparation and build Aerospace • Lease $0.33/sq.ft. (average rate) Commons • 15 Acres of 119.5 developed over ten years (Aviation • Building Size 10,000 sq.ft. per Acre Finished Value of $500,000 Commercial (based on $50/sq.ft.) and Industrial) • Total Buildings 15 (3 per year Year 1 through 3, 1 per year Year 4 through 10) • $0.08/sq.ft of land for utility recovery fee; utilities to be brought to site on an as developed basis • Builder responsible for site preparation and builds
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Commons Assumptions
General • 5 Private Hangars (Year 3 – 1; Year 4 – 4) Aviation • Lease $0.33/sq.ft. (average rate) • Hangar Size 3,000 sq.ft./occupying 4,889 sq.ft of land • The area can be developed sooner with more private hangars or a T-Hangar build if interest supported (not included in the ten-year scope, this would be in addition to the financials presented) • Builder responsible for water and sewer (could be septic) Learning • Flight School operations of 5 aircraft Commons • Fuel of 100L of AvGas per day; 5 days per week
Adventure • Attract a Builder/Investor in Year 4 Commons • Builder responsible for site preparation and build • Assumes 11.75 Acres required for a 73,065 sq. ft building meeting Obstacle Limits requirements • $0.08/sq.ft of land for utility recovery fee; utilities to be brought to site on an as developed basis
Capital Requirements
10.1.1 Runway Rehabilitation Year 2023 With the existing runway condition and the anticipated increase in air traffic, rehabilitation of the runway is necessary and is estimated to be a requirement within the next two years. For large capital projects, there is typically an undertaking to obtain funding from different levels of government willing to invest, commonly resulting in 50% coverage of the costs, but can result in upwards of 80% coverage applied from grants. Both scenarios are calculated below.
Table 12: Runway Rehabilitation Cost & Funding
Runway Rehabilitation 50% Funded 80% Funded $4,599,400 $2,599,700 $3,679,520 Net Cost for Airport $2,599,700 $ 919,800
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Airport Capital Infrastructure A recent report of Building Condition Assessment by Pichin dated March 18, 2020, indicated several repairs are required and/or maintenance items for the Airport Buildings and surrounding land for a total of $568,768. The suggestion was to conduct all the recommendations within ten years. The working group needs to determine the capital investments and the priorities based on the report findings. Table 13: Airport Rehabilitation Costs
Budget Items Cost Site Features: Fencing $5,000
Building A Metal Cladding $20,000 Roofing $15,320 Exterior Doors $1,500 Structural Elements - Cleaning/Painting $3,000 Branch Wiring/Conduits/Breaker $10,000 Sealant $3,000 Total Building A Costs $52,820
Building B Metal Cladding $20,000 Membrane, soffits, fascia, eaves, downspouts $99,560 Windows $2,000 Overhead Doors $30,000 Exterior Doors $1,500 Ceiling Finishes $1,000 Wall Finishes $3,000 Interior Finishes - Flooring $3,125 Domestic Water Distribution $5,000 Hot Water Heater $3,000 Radiant Heaters $15,000 Sealant $3,000 Branch Wiring/Conduits/Breaker $10,000 Plumbing $5,000 Total Building B Costs $186,185
Building C Metal Cladding $20,000 Build Up Roof $17,000 Moidified Bitumen $59,000
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Budget Items Cost Sealant $3,000 Exterior Doors $1,500 Observation Deck Membrance Replacement $13,560 Ceiling Finishes $1,000 Wall Finishes $3,000 Interior Finishes - Flooring $3,125 Interior Finishes - Replacement Carpet $8,664 Domestic Water Distribution $5,000 Hot Water Heater $3,000 HVAC Replacement $5,000 HVAC York/Sunline Units $10,000 Exhaust Fan $5,000 Plumbing $5,000 Total Building C Costs $162,849
Building D Soffit and Fascia Repairs $3,000 Windows $2,000 Exterior Doors $1,500 Ceiling Finishes $1,000 Sealant $3,000 Total Building D Costs $10,500
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Table 14: Prosperity Hub Summary
Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10 Total Revenue Airport $310,200 $372,240 $409,464 $450,410 $495,451 $544,997 $599,496 $659,446 $725,390 $797,929 $5,365,024 Operations Agricultural $0 $29,574 $30,018 $30,468 $30,925 $31,389 $31,860 $32,337 $32,823 $33,315 $282,708 Lands Phase 1: Non- Aviation $225,002 $243,383 $261,819 $163,678 $172,952 $182,254 $191,585 $200,946 $210,338 $219,760 $2,071,717 Industrial & Commercial Phase 2: Aviation Industrial & $0 $81,449 $141,654 $195,317 $194,684 $212,632 $230,582 $248,533 $266,487 $284,442 $1,855,778 Commercial (D1) Phase 3: General Aviation $0 $0 $2,613 $10,453 $13,067 $13,328 $13,595 $13,867 $14,144 $14,427 $95,494 Promotion & Fill Existing Lots Phase 4: Hotel $0 $0 $0 $426,225 $5,845 $5,845 $5,845 $5,845 $5,845 $5,845 $461,296 Development Total Revenues $535,202 $726,646 $845,567 $1,277 M $912,924 $990,444 $1.073 M $1.161 M $1.255 M $1.356 M $10.132 M
Costs Corporation $175,000 $283,600 $287,272 $291,017 $294,838 $298,735 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $2,830,462 Cost Airport $575,500 $592,765 $605,243 $628,539 $642,102 $661,365 $679,312 $700,305 $730,395 $755,220 $6,570,746 Operations Phase 1: Non- Aviation $100,093 $100,093 $100,093 $100,093 $58,468 $88,159 $88,159 $88,159 $88,159 $88,159 $899,637 Industrial & Commercial Phase 2: Aviation Industrial & $0 $141,450 $145,200 $145,275 $145,352 $81,680 $81,759 $81,840 $81,923 $82,008 $986,486 Commercial (D1) Phase 4: Hotel $0 $0 $0 $100,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $100,000 Development Total Costs $850,593 $1.118 M $1.138 M $1,265 M $1,141 M $1.129 M $1.149 M $1.170 M $1.200 M $1.225 M $11.387M Net -$315,391 -$391,262 -$292,241 $11,628 -$227,835 -$139,494 -$76,268 -$9,330 $54,549 $130,332 -$1.255 M
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Table 14 Notes: • Phases Outside of the 10 Year Development Plan have not been forecasted but can be phased on demand • Additional Commercial & Industrial Land • Additional General Aviation Hangar • Education facility • Fixed-Base Operator
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Airport Solvency
The solvency of the Airport was examined throughout this study. The Airport is the only Certified Airport in Grey and Bruce Counties, and it would be a significant loss to the region if closed.
The review determined that the direct costs of closing the Airport were more than $1 million, considering the Airport debt, hangar purchases, and paying out of the hangars. The direct costs of other significant parts for closure are unknown as they depend on several conditions. The removal of the fuel farm and environmental clean-up could be up to $130,000 for soil remediation and does not include groundwater remediation costs. The Airport would also require an Environmental Site Assessment and Designated Substances Survey, and the cost of these surveys would depend on the contamination found. These costs do not reflect any indirect costs associated with closure. Other environmental considerations require a separate study to determine the exact costs as the range can be from thousands into the millions.
Table 15: Solvency Costs Description Known Cost GA Hangar Purchases $1,098,000 Airport Debt Repayment $260,000 Total $1,358,000 If the Airport loses certification, becoming re-certified would be a long-term project not easily accomplished. The Airport is certified to both 3rd and 4th editions of TP312, initially published in 1989 and 1993. The Airport would no longer be grandfathered under these regulations and would instead have to meet the newest TP312 – Aerodrome Standards and Recommended Practices, last published in 2015 and updated in 2020. There are many changes with the latest regulations, including lighting, taxiway to runway proximity, and modifications to the Obstacle Limitation Surface requirements. It would likely cost the Airport several million dollars to meet all the current standards to comply with safety requirements, and the majority of this money would go to extensive infrastructure upgrades such as airfield lighting.
Once certification is lost, the length of time for the Airport to regain it is substantial. It is unlikely that any company or airline that wants to start or resume service would wait for the recertification. It is critical to have a Certified Airport in the region that can cater to users' needs, be available for potential development, and advertise its benefits.
The Township of Georgian Bluffs is the sole owner of the Airport. Should the Township Council decide to close the Airport, there are many legal liabilities and considerations. A full study is required to determine all direct and indirect costs associated with solvency. However, a high-level summary can be found in Appendix F.
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Regional Economic Portrait
Economic Portrait In the last few years, Grey County has seen substantial growth in the agriculture and agri- food sector. The local food trend is thriving, from orchards to cheese factories to mushroom plantations, vineyards, and food processing. The County is also strong in the food and accommodation sector, leveraging its sports, tourism, natural assets, and boutique retail. With a large retirement population, healthcare services also play a key role in the County’s economy. The construction sector sustains a steady growth with the influx of former GTA residents and the manufacturing (advanced manufacturing) sector, to a lesser extent, to round up the main economic drivers.
Bruce County also relies on strong tourism, agriculture, and agri-food industry.
Tourism Portrait Grey and Bruce are some of the most visited counties in Ontario. Every year, thousands of visitors are attracted to their natural beauty and the healthy range of activities that can be done in the area. A study conducted for Regional Tourism Organization 7 indicated that most visitors in the region came from Southwestern Ontario, followed by those from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).
Demographically, visitors to Grey and Bruce Counties tended to be male, in the 45-64 age group, with high income. Among visits, the recognized places in the county are Tobermory, the Lake Huron beach towns of Port Elgin, Sauble Beach, Kincardine, Southampton, as well as Wiarton and Walkerton.
Some of the County's most popular attractions include the Bruce Trail, Sauble Beach, Bruce Peninsula National Park, Fathom Five National Marine Park, and Georgian Bay- related activities for leisure fishing, particularly wild salmon, and its scuba diving adventures. For hunters and anglers, the opportunities are endless.
In addition to the natural attractions, both Grey and Bruce Counties feature a prominent heritage, with the presence of the Chippewas of Nawash and Saugeen Tribe First Nation. The Chippewas of Nawash operate the Cape Croker Park, a renowned camping ground surrounded by forest on the edge of the Georgian Bay. On-site activities include camping, learning about traditional art and the community’s history, and opportunities to meet with the Elders.
This summary of the Airport Catchment area and the consultations done with public, private, and specialized stakeholders supports the recommendation of many development scenarios for the Airport.
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Funding Opportunities
A business case would assess the applicable funding opportunities that would be potential options for the Airport development and improvements. Presentation of the Hub business case to both the federal and provincial governments is recommended for added funding that is not accessible through grants.
There are several Government grant opportunities as noted below, with detailed descriptions presented in Appendix I.
• Ontario Community Infrastructure Fund • Ontario Municipal Modernization Program • Southwestern Ontario Development Fund (Community economic development projects) • Rural Economic Development program • Federal Government Funding • National Trade Corridors Fund • New Building Canada Fund – Provincial-Territorial Infrastructure Component – National and Regional Projects (PTIC-NRP) • New Building Canada Fund – Provincial-Territorial Infrastructure Component – Small Communities Fund (PTIC-SCF) • Regional Air Transportation Initiative (RATI)
Short-Term Action Items
• Complete the business plan for the Hub. • Meet with various levels of government to seek funding to support the Hub infrastructure development costs. • Continue to review and monitor potential government funding programs. • Seek opportunities for private sector partnerships
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Recommended Implementation Plan
The timeline can be adjusted accordingly based on the actual implementation date and the review/approval process.
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Stakeholder Consultations
The stakeholder consultation sessions took place between February 9 and March 12, 2020. Working with the Township of Georgian Bluffs and Grey County, The Loomex Group identified key stakeholders to participate in the sessions to explore and gain feedback on the Airport's impact on the region and information from the stakeholders on potential Airport opportunities. The sessions were of virtual format due to the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.
The Loomex Group recognizes the importance of open and transparent engagement between the Airport and key stakeholders, both internal and external. During each session, stakeholders were provided with information about the project and could provide feedback and suggestions. The project team asked probing questions to gain knowledge and perceptions about the Airport, including members' current use and information surrounding various topics, including economic impact and tourism. The list below highlights the participants in the sessions. Note: This list only mentions participants who responded to the invitation and not the invitees' list.
Governments • Hanover Mayor • Georgian Bluffs Councillors • Northern Bruce Peninsula CAO • Georgian Bluffs CAO • Bruce County CAO and Warden • Georgian Bluffs Mayor • Métis Nation of Ontario – Great Lakes • Georgian Bluffs Directors of Métis Council President Operations, Finance, and Planning • Member of Parliament (MP), Bruce- • Grey County CAO and Warden Grey-Owen Sound Constituency • Kincardine Mayor • Member of Provincial Parliament • Kincardine Director of Public Works (MPP), Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound • Owen Sound City Manager Constituency
Economic Development • Bruce County Economic Development • South Bruce Peninsula Economic Development • Grey County Economic Development • Hanover Economic Development Manager
Aviation Business • Saugeen Municipal Airport – Airport Manager • Owen Sound and Kincardine Airport Management Company • Saugeen Shores COPA Group • Chair of Saugeen Municipal Airport Commission
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Business & Industry • • Parks Canada Transcontinental RBW Graphics • • Grey Area Marketing Group Bruce Power • • Chapman's Ice Cream Organization of Canadian Nuclear Industries • Think Canada • Grey-Highlands Chamber of • Bruce Community Futures Commerce • Cobble Beach Resort • RTO7 Appendix L includes a summary of the Stakeholder Session Responses.
Community Survey A community survey was available online through smartphones, tablets, or computers, and 444 submissions were received. The survey was confidential, anonymous, and did not ask participants for personal information. Summarized in Appendix L are general remarks and ideas from survey respondents, based on content themes that provide value-added details from the community.
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References
Airline Pilot Hiring Outlook. (2021, 03). Retrieved from ATP Flight School: https://atpflightschool.com/airlines/pilot-hiring-outlook.html
Airports Council International. (2020, August 31). ACI Advisory Bulletin The Impact of COVID-19 on the Airport Business. Retrieved December 17, 2020, from https://store.aci.aero/: https://store.aci.aero/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/COVID19- 4th-Economic-Impact-Advisory-Bulletin.pdf
Airports Planning Central Region. (1975). Dryden Airport Master Plan.
BDC Canada. (2021). What you need to know about environmental site assessments. Retrieved from BDC: https://www.bdc.ca/en/articles-tools/money-finance/buy-lease- commercial-real-estate/what-you-need-know-about-environmental-site- assessments#:~:text=The%20cost%20of%20a%20Phase,this%20process%2C%E2 %80%9D%20says%20LaBossi%C3%A8re
CAPA Centre for Aviation. (2016, March 22). Airport Privatisation in Canada: Transport Policy Review. Retrieved December 17, 2020, from https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/airport-privatisation-in-canada- transport-policy-review-271346. Retrieved December 17, 2020, from CAPA Centre for Aviation: https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/airport-privatisation-in- canada-transport-policy-review-271346
CBAA. (2017). Economic Impact of Business Aviation Operations and Business Aircraft Manufacturing in Canada.
Census Canada. (October 6 2017). Census Release IV: Income. Census Canada.
Explorer Solutions. (2017). Wiarton Keppel International Airport Economic Impact and Feasibility Study.
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Hirschman, D. (2017, January 19). AOPA: News and Media. Retrieved from AOPA: https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2017/march/flight-training- magazine/how-it-works-lighting
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Ministry of Transporation. (n.d.). Ontario Municipal Airports Update, 2011.
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Ontario Government. (2018, April 30). Retrieved March 19, 2021, from O. Reg. 599/06: MUNICIPAL SERVICES CORPORATIONS: https://www.ontario.ca/laws/regulation/060599
Ontario Government. (2020, 07 14). Technical Standards and Safety Act, 2000, S.O. 2000, c. 16. Retrieved from Ontario.ca: https://www.ontario.ca/laws/statute/00t16
Ontario Ministry of Finance. (n.d.). Ontario's Long-Term Report on the Economy.
Statistics Canada. (2019). Labour Force Survey (LFS) custom tabulation (2018). Retrieved December 17, 2020
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Statistics Canada. (2020, 01 07). Survey of Innovation and Business Strategy. Retrieved from Statistics Canada: https://www23.statcan.gc.ca/imdb/p2SV.pl?Function=getSurvey&Id=1260908
Statistics Canada, 2016 Census of Population. (2017). Georgian Bluffs, TP [Census subdivision], Ontario and Ontario [Province] (table). Ottawa. Released November 29, 2017. Retrieved March 12, 2021, from https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-
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Transport Canada. (2015, July 31). per Transport Canada Aerodrome Standards and Recommended Practices, TP 312, 4th Edition. Retrieved December 17, 2020, from https://tc.canada.ca/en/aviation/publications/aerodromes-standards-recommended- practices-5th-edition-revised-07-2015-tp-312: https://tc.canada.ca/en/aviation/publications/aerodromes-standards-recommended- practices-5th-edition-revised-07-2015-tp-312
Transport Canada. (2020, September 01). Airports Capital Assistance Program: Transport Canada. Retrieved December 17, 2020, from Transport Canada: https://tc.canada.ca/en/programs/airports-capital-assistance-program
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Underground Storage Tanks (USTs). (2021, January). Retrieved from EPA: https://www.epa.gov/ust/frequent-questions-about-underground-storage- tanks#:~:text=The%20cost%20of%20cleanup%20depends,be%20as%20low%20as %20%2410%2C000.
University of Guelph - Ontario Agriculture College. (March 2021). 2020 Farmland Value and Rental Value Survey. Guelph: Professor Brady Deaton Jr.
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Planning Opinion Report The Loomex Group retained Kevin M. Duguay Community Planning and Consulting Inc. to prepare a Planning Opinion regarding the Wiarton Keppel International Airport's development opportunity.
In this regard, the Project Planning Consultant’s Report includes the following:
• Land Use Policy review. • Land Use Zoning Regulations review. • Preliminary “Conceptual” Master Development Plan for the Airport; and • Preliminary “Conceptual” development for sub-areas of the proposed Airport Master Development Plan.
The Property
Figure 22: Overview of the Property, Source: Township of Georgian Bluffs The subject lands, being Wiarton Keppel International Airport (Airport), are located at 501262 Grey Road 1. The Airport Lands straddle both Bruce County and Grey County, located within both the Town of South Bruce Peninsula and the Township of Georgian Bluffs.
Appendix A - 76 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
A majority of the Lands are within Grey County, except the small field to the southwest of the runway, which is located within the built-up boundary of the Town of Wiarton (Bruce County). The dividing line between the Counties is illustrated in Figure 6.
The Airport lands are approximately 815 acres in area, some of which are developed and contain the Airport’s runways and related infrastructure, including a terminal building with a restaurant.
Planning Documents Reviewed
The following planning documents were reviewed for purposes of the preparation of this Planning Opinion:
• 2020 Provincial Policy Statement (2020 PPS) • 2017 Niagara Escarpment Plan (2017 NEP) • 2010 Bruce County Official Plan • 2019 Grey County Official Plan • 2004 Town of South Bruce Peninsula Official Plan • Township of Georgian Bluffs Official Plan • Town of South Bruce Peninsula Zoning By-law • Township of Georgian Bluffs Zoning By-law
Additionally, a review of various documents provided by the Loomex Group relating to Airport Operations, Policies and Regulations was completed to inform the writing of this Report.
Appendix A - 77 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
2020 Provincial Policy Statement (PPS, 2020)
The 2020 PPS sets forth a series of policies that address a range of land use, planning, development, and related topics on a provincial-wide basis.
Concerning the proposed Airport development, the following policies of the 2020 PPS are considered to have direct relevancy:
Table 16: Relevant Provincial Policy Statement Policies
Policy Title – Details
1.1
1.1.4
Appendix A - 78 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
Policy Title – Details
1.1.4.1
1.2
1.3
Appendix A - 79 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
Policy Title – Details
1.6.9
The Airport Lands' potential development represents opportunities to enhance an existing Federally Regulated Airport in a coordinated manner (upper and lower-tier local governments) that would generate significant and diverse employment and economic opportunities.
The Project Planning Consultant's professional opinion is the development of the Airport property would be consistent with the policy directives of the 2020 PPS.
Appendix A - 80 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
2017 Niagara Escarpment Plan (2017 NEP)
The 2017 NEP is a Provincial Plan governing land use planning within the Niagara Escarpment Area, serving to protect geological features while allowing compatible development.
The Plan contains land use policies, designations and development criteria pertaining to General vicinity development within the NEP of Airport Lands area. Development Permits from the Niagara Escarpment Commission are required for any proposed development. This policy may apply for development on those Airport lands within the geographic limits of the 2017 NEP.
The Airport lands are shown on Plan Map 7 of the NEP, illustrating three designations. The lands within Bruce County (Town of South Bruce Peninsula) within the Urban Area designation Figure 23: General vicinity of Airport Lands within (pink colour) due to their proximity NEP Plan Map 7 to the built-up environment of Wiarton. The yellow colour represents the Escarpment Rural Area designation, and the orange colour represents the Escarpment Protection Area. Areas shown in white are not included as part of the NEP. Therefore, not all of the Airport Lands are subject to the policies of the NEP. For the lands that are subject to the policies of the NEP it is recommended that steps are taken to remove the designation from the Airport lands.
Lands within the Urban Area designation recognize the existing built environment encroachment into/of the Escarpment. This designation aims to minimize impact and prevent further encroachment of urban growth on the Escarpment. Proposed uses may be permitted subject to conformity with certain development criteria, the development objectives of the designation and, where applicable, Zoning By-laws that are not in conflict with the NEP. The proposed agricultural use in this area would not conflict with the Plan.
Lands within the Escarpment Protection Area are recognized for their visual prominence and environmental significance. Land use policies of this designation serve to protect and enhance natural and hydrologic features and the Escarpment's open landscape character
Appendix A - 81 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study and lands in its vicinity. Airport development within this designation will require further consultation and may require an amendment to the NEP.
Lands within the Escarpment Rural Area are recognized to provide a buffer to the Escarpment's more ecologically sensitive areas. The list of permitted uses within this designation does not include commercial or industrial type uses. Therefore, further consultation and an amendment to the NEP may be required.
The Official Plans for Bruce and Grey Counties and local Official Plans for the Town of South Bruce Peninsula and Township of Georgian Bluffs all contain policies that directly proposed land use activities and development within the Escarpment to the Province’s NEP. The realization of an Airport Master Plan must consider the development criteria of the NEP, which may require further consultation and, as noted potential amendment/s of the NEP.
County Official Plans
As indicated, the Airport lands straddle both Bruce and Grey Counties. Therefore, both County Official Plans were reviewed.
Bruce County (2010)
Figure 24 identifies the portion of Airport Lands located within Bruce County designated as “Primary Urban Communities” in the Bruce County Official Plan.
This designation delineates the built-up area of Wiarton and permits a wide range of uses, including residential, commercial, industrial, and institutional.
The proposed concept plan for these lands includes agricultural use related to Figure 24: Bruce County Interactive Map, cropping. Within this designation, it does March 2021 not permit new livestock operations, and none are proposed.
Utilizing the lands for agricultural purposes would not hinder any future development or expansion of municipal services within the delineated built-up environment.
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Grey County Official Plan (2019) The majority of the Airport lands are located within Grey County and designated as Rural, Niagara Escarpment Plan, Hazard Land and Provincially Significant Wetland. Figure 25: Grey County GIS, March 2021
Niagara Escarpment Plan Rural Provincially Significant Wetland
Hazard Lands
Hazard Lands and Provincially Significant Wetlands are areas with environmental sensitivity and may include flood-prone areas.
The identification and delineation of Provincially Significant Wetlands and Significant Coastal Wetlands is the responsibility of the Province. No development or site alteration is permitted within Provincially Significant Wetlands and Significant Coastal Wetlands. Development on lands adjacent to these features must demonstrate that there will be no negative impact on their ecological function by completing an Environmental Impact Study. Permits from the local Conservation Authority may also be required.
Development within the areas identified as Hazard Lands may only be permitted under strict circumstances and with written approval from the local conservation authority. Generally, development is directed away from these areas. For example, the Rural land use type permits agriculture and related uses, conservation, forestry and resource-based recreational uses.
The Grey County Official Plan recognizes that the Airport is federally regulated, and therefore, any airport-related development on the Airport lands that is an airport-related use is under Federal jurisdiction and would not require an amendment to the Official Plan.
Airport-related uses include airport-related commercial and industrial (e.g., manufacturing, maintenance repair and overhaul (MRO), aircraft maintenance organizations (AMO), aircraft refurbishment and support activities), research establishments, commercial flight schools including associated temporary accommodation, business offices, and small scale accessory use.
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Additionally, any development in proximity to environmentally sensitive lands would be subject to an environmental study that would recommend appropriate mitigation preservation and compensation measures. It is anticipated that Officials associated with the Niagara Escarpment Staff would play an active role in evaluating, implementing, and monitoring Environment Assessment Report recommendations.
Economic Development
Both Official Plans recognize the importance of economic development in terms of having a diverse economy supported by a wide range of business activities. The Grey County Official Plan states that opportunities to better utilize the airports within Grey County should be explored. The objectives of Bruce County Council, as per the Official Plan, include:
• Encouraging the continued improvement of municipality-owned licensed airports or airstrips in the County. • Encouraging the preparation of airport master plans, which address the appropriate mix of airport and airport-related uses as one method of supporting economic growth in the County. • Encouraging the continued existence and expansion of airports to support economic development.
Lower Tier Official Plans
The Airport lands are located within the lower-tier municipalities of the Town of South Bruce Peninsula (Bruce County) and the Township of Georgian Bluffs (Grey County).
Town of South Bruce Peninsula Official Plan (2004)
The Airport lands located within the Town of South Bruce Peninsula (SBP) are designated as Rural. More specifically, they are identified as Rural in the Wiarton Community Plan, a community-focused plan with its own set of goals, objectives, and Figure 26: Bruce County Interactive Map, March land use planning policies. 2021
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Within the Wiarton Community Plan, the Airport Lands are designated as Rural, which has limited development potential because of difficulty in providing full municipal services in the foreseeable future, or because the lands are suitable for development but are not needed at this time to accommodate the expected urban growth of the Town during the planning period. Either scenario does not preclude the development of the Airport Lands. Moreover, its development could facilitate an opportunity to extend municipal services.
The Plan states that the use of lands designated Rural shall be limited to non-intensive agricultural use, forestry, recreation and open space activities. New, intensive agricultural activities would not be permitted within the Rural designation.
The proposed use of these lands is agriculture, specifically cropping, and not intended to represent intensive agriculture or contain livestock facilities.
The Official Plan recognizes the local and regional importance of the Airport and strives to ensure that the Airport's services continue to be maintained, diversified and enhanced to ensure the long-term success of the facility.
Township of Georgian Bluffs Official Plan
The majority of Airport Lands are located within the Township of Georgian Bluffs and identified on Schedule ‘A’ of the Official Plan as “County of Grey Official Plan” and Niagara Escarpment Plan Area. This means that the primary land use planning policies for the Airport lands are contained within the Grey County Official Plan and Niagara Escarpment Plan and not contained within the local Official Plan.
The Georgian Bluffs Official Plan recognizes the Airport as being a significant community and economic development asset and states that to sustain the economic viability of the Airport, the Township intends to encourage improvements to the Airport facility, as needed to stimulate further economic development in this area.
Like the Bruce County Official Plan, the preparation of an Airport Master Plan is encouraged, which addresses the appropriate mix of airport and non-airport-related uses and how they would support area economic and employment growth.
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Zoning By-laws
Town of South Bruce Peninsula Zoning By-law
The portion of lands within the Town of South Bruce Peninsula is zoned Future Development-a (FD- a).
The Future Development (FD) zone permits the following uses:
• Agricultural uses excepting no new buildings, structures or expansions to existing uses, buildings and structures; • Existing uses at the date of passage of this By-law (September 2009) in accordance with Section 10.3 Figure 27: Bruce County Interactive Map, March 2021 Zone Provisions Un-Serviced Detached Residential Zone (R1A). (By-law 67-2013, Z-07-2013.58); • Home occupations; and • Accessory uses buildings and structures in accordance with Section 6.1
The Future Development-a (FD-a) zone contains further provisions addressing detached dwellings' construction on existing lots of record and the required servicing.
As agricultural use (cropping) is proposed on this portion of the Airport Lands, there is no contravention of the local Zoning By-law.
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Township of Georgian Bluffs Zoning By-law
The zoning of the Airport Lands within the Township of Georgian Bluffs is identified on Schedule A- Map 1 of the Comprehensive Zoning By-law. Map 25 (referenced below). The By-law does not contain any zoning information for that portion of the property falling within the NEP.
The Airport Lands outside of the NEP are zoned Airport (AP) and Environmental Protection (EP).
The Airport (AP) zone permits the following uses:
Figure 28: Schedule ‘A’ - Map 1 Township of Georgian Bluffs Website, March 2021
Table 17: Township Zoning By-Law
Permitted Uses Zone AP Airport ✓ Airport Related ✓ Business Office ✓ Industrial Uses ✓ Parking Lot ✓ Printing Establishments ✓ Research Laboratory ✓ Restaurant ✓ Trade School ✓ Transportation Terminal ✓ Warehouse ✓ Wellness Centre ✓
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Definitions related to permitted uses: Airport Related Use means any use that will require the use of air services or uses that generate demand for aviation-related services directly or indirectly. Airport-related use also encompasses commercial uses accessory to the Airport.
Business or Professional Office means any building or part thereof in which one or more persons are employed in the management, direction or conducting of an agency, business, brokerage, labour or fraternal organization.
Industrial uses are not specifically defined.
Warehouse means a building or part of a building used to store and distribute goods, wares, merchandise, substances, articles, or things and may include facilities for a wholesale or retail commercial outlet but shall not include a transport terminal.
Table 18: Zone Requirements (Source: Township Zoning By-law) Zone Requirements Zone AP Lot Coverage (Maximum) 50% Maximum Height 45 m Required Yards (Minimum) Front Yard 30 m Exterior Side Yard 30 m Rear Yard 30 m Interior Side Yard 30 m
The Environmental Protection (EP) zone permits the following uses: Table 19: Township Zoning By-law Environmental Protection (EP Zones) Zone Requirements Zone EP Conservation ✓ Forestry ✓ Dock ✓ Passive Recreational Uses ✓ Public or Private Park, excluding golf ✓ courses
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Buildings and structures are not permitted in the EP zone unless required for food or erosion control or non-habitable structure accessories to parks, conservation, and picnic areas.
As previously noted, the Airport Lands are under federal regulation. Any development in proximity or on that portion of the EP zoned would require the production and approval of a comprehensive Environmental Assessment.
Existing Conditions Plan
Figure 29: Existing Conditions Plan
• Overall Area - 323 hectares. • One main runway and one secondary runway. • Public campus- terminal buildings within the mid-eastern portion of the property, accessed from Grey Road 1.
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Preliminary Airport Master Plan Detailed Components The figures below show the maximum area for development and do not represent the size of buildings to be developed.
Sub Area A Public Campus Figure 30: Sub Area A - Public Campus
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Sub Area B: Flight School/FBO
Figure 31: Sub Area B - Flight School/FBO
Sub Area C: Hotel Figure 32: Sub Area C - Hotel
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Sub Area D1-D2: Aerospace Commercial and Industrial
Figure 33: Area D1 - Aerospace Commercial and Industrial
Sub Area D2: Aerospace Commercial and Industrial
Figure 34: Sub Area D2 - Aerospace Commercial & Industrial
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Sub Area E: Agro-Food Incubator
Figure 35: Sub Area E - Agro-Food Incubator
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The Role of Airports in Southern Ontario Airports have long been recognized for their role in connecting destinations and creating jobs. As a fast-growing region in Canada's largest economy, Southern Ontario plays a vital role in building its busiest airport network and developing a strong aviation and aerospace industry.
Air traffic and passenger volume have grown at the same speed as Southern Ontario's economic growth (over time), with the expectation that this growth will advance faster into the future. The Greater Toronto Airports Authority (GTAA), which operates at the Toronto Lester B. Pearson International Airport, estimates that Southern Ontario's aviation growth will add 40 million passengers to Toronto Pearson alone by 2035. When including other Southern Ontario airports, there will be a more significant increase.
As a result of optimistic projections about air traffic and passenger volume, regional airports in Southern Ontario plan to increase capacity and position themselves well in advance for future growth in domestic, commercial flights.
Peterborough, Niagara, and Lake Simcoe airports can start to offer charter or scheduled service.
Billy Bishop Toronto City Figure 36: Map of International and Regional Airports in Airport added US Customs Southwestern Ontario and Border Pre-Clearance services that improve operational efficiency and handle transborder passengers and flights.
As Regional and International Airports continue to expand their national and global connectivity, Regional Airports3 have become key in supporting economically significant air service needs, such as general aviation and aerospace supply chain. The most recent systematic
3 Municipal airports refer to those public airports that serve local / municipal needs and provide a socio-economic contribution, regardless of the ownership structure.
Appendix C - 94 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study inventory assessment for Ontario's municipal airports was conducted in 2011 by the Ontario Ministry of Transportation. The Study identified 84 municipal airports throughout Ontario, with 46 (55%) located in Southern Ontario.
Figure 37: Ontario Municipal Airports Update (Ministry of Transportation, 2011)
Figure 38: Municipal Airports in Southern Ontario as of 2011
* Airport data was collected in 2011 and does not reflect any changes from 2011 – 2020
As of 2011, 22 (48%) municipal airports in Southern Ontario are operated by a Municipality,
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Town, City, or Township. Of this number, nine municipal airports (20%) are Airport Commission, Authority, or Board operated, and 15 (32%) are privately operated.
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Air Traffic Growth Models Growth Model
As mentioned previously, an Aircraft Movement Telecorder was installed at the Airport in September 2017, and the previous data was unreliable. Five growth models are proposed in the tables below to forecast aircraft movements at the Airport.
Table 19: Forecast of Airport Movements Growth Rate 2021-2030presents a summary of five growth models. Growth Model 2 is the greatest estimate of growth for itinerant movements but negatively estimates local movements. Growth Model 1 forecasts a large yearly increase in itinerant movements and a significant decrease in local movements. The recommendation is to disregard Models 1 and 2 projections as they incorporate constraints and limitations of the historic aircraft movement dataset. The forecast estimation results of Growth Model 3, 4, and 5 use the 2019 annual data as a baseline for calculation.
Table 20: Forecast of Airport Movements Growth Rate 2021-2030
Local Itinerant Annual Growth Model Movements Movements Growth
Model 1 (2018 and 2019 Annual) -36.10% 30.20% 9.3% Model 2 (2017 to 2019 Month-to-Month) -14.70% 45.50% 7.1% Model 3 (Population Growth) 1.20% 1.20% 1.20% Model 4 (SOAN Forecast) 1.04% 1.04% 1.04% Model 5 (2.5% Growth) 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
Growth Model 1 – Based on 2018 and 2019 Annual Growth The first growth model uses the two-year annual movements data from 2018 and 2019 to calculate the annual traffic growth. Before the fluctuation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, the Airport’s growth potential exhibits a steady trend of yearly growth with no significant change in the business environment. Also, the two-year dataset is consistent in terms of the collection method.
Growth Model 2 – Based on September 2017 – December 2019 Month-to-month Growth The second growth model factors the seasonality of traffic patterns at the Airport and any monthly fluctuation in aircraft activity. Calculation of the growth rate over twelve months (or the average of month-to-month growth rate whenever three years' data was available) and the average calculated to reflect a yearly rate.
Growth Model 3 – Based on Regional Population Growth Rate
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This model assumes that the Airport's future air traffic shares a similar growth rate with the regional population. As per the 2020 Ontario Population Projection, the Grey-Bruce and Owen Sound Regions are projected to have an annual population growth rate of 1.2% in 2021-2022, then gradually ease to 1.1% in the following two decades. It is reasonable to use 1.2% as the estimated population growth rate on average, and thus the annual growth rate of air traffic in the next ten years.
Growth Model 4 – Based on Southern Ontario GA Forecast Before COVID-19, the Southern Ontario Airport Network (SOAN) expected general aviation in Southern Ontario to increase by 2.4% overall in the next two decades (equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.04% per year). Growth Model 4 assumes that air traffic at the Airport will grow by 1.04% in each of the following ten years.
Growth Model 5 – 2.5% Annual Growth Model 5 factors in a 2.5% annual increase to the local and itinerant traffic movements. In the past number of years, the Airport’s itinerant movements exhibited strong growth and are expected to continue in the following years. Despite a decrease in 2020, it is assumed that local movements will bounce back as life, the industry, and the overall economy recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Table 21: Forecast of the Airport’s Annual Itinerant Movements 2021-2030 Optimistic Model Average Model Conservative Years (2.5%) (1.2%) Model (1.04%) 2019 (Historic) 3,892 3,892 3,892 2020 3,989 3,939 3,932 2021 4,089 3,986 3,973 2022 4,191 4,034 4,015 2023 4,296 4,082 4,056 2024 4,403 4,131 4,099 2025 (Forecast) 4,514 4,181 4,141 2026 4,626 4,231 4,184 2027 4,742 4,282 4,228 2028 4,861 4,,333 4,272 2029 4,982 4,385 4,316 2030 5,107 4,438 4,361
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Aviation and Aerospace Industry in Southern Ontario
Ontario has a strong presence in the aviation and aerospace industry on the global stage. The province is home to over half of the world's Top 25 aerospace companies, and there are made-in-Ontario parts or designs on virtually every passenger aircraft in the world today. The majority of aviation and aerospace businesses are concentrated in the GTA, Kitchener/Waterloo, Hamilton, London, and Ottawa regions. Based on the Provincial Government's business profiling and inventory assessment study through Invest-in-Ontario, the figures below provide illustrations on the distribution of aviation and aerospace industry participants across Southern Ontario.
Southern Ontario is home to six aircraft engine equipment and components manufacturers, with the majority located in GTA and two in Ottawa.
Figure 39: Aircraft Engine Equipment & Components Manufacturers
There are five aircraft landing gear system and component manufacturers identified across Southern Ontario, with four located in Toronto and one situated in Kitchener (Figure 39).
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Figure 40: Aircraft Landing Gear System & Components Manufacturers
117 businesses participate in manufacturing aircraft structural components or assembling aircraft structural parts in Southern Ontario. Of note is the clustering of companies in the GTA. There is also a small cluster in Windsor (Figure 41).
Figure 41: Aircraft Structural Assembly and Components Manufacturers
There are 47 avionics, electronics, and aircraft systems manufacturers across Southern Ontario concentrated in Ottawa and the GTA.
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Figure 42: Avionics, Electronics, and Aircraft Systems Manufacturers
There are 42 businesses in Southern Ontario that provide support services to aircraft and parts manufacturing. Most of the companies are in Windsor, Kitchener/Waterloo, Hamilton, GTA, and Ottawa
Figure 43: Manufacturing Support Businesses in Southern Ontario
Fifty MRO and aircraft modification/conversion businesses are spread throughout Southern Ontario. A small cluster with four companies is located in Peterborough (Figure 43).
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Figure 44: MRO and Aircraft Modification Businesses in Southern Ontario
There are three Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) in Southern Ontario, including Airbus Helicopters Canada in the Niagara Region, Bombardier Aviation in Toronto, and Diamond Aircraft Industries in London.
Figure 45: Original Equipment Manufacturer in Southern Ontario
Southern Ontario has eleven research and development organizations specializing in aviation and aerospace, located in urban centers (Figure 48).
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Figure 46: Research and Development Organization in Southern Ontario
There are 16 businesses manufacturing space systems or providing related services in Southern Ontario, half of which are in the GTA Figure 47: Space System Equipment and Services Providers in Southern Ontario
Southern Ontario has 29 businesses that provide technical services to other players in the aviation and aerospace industry. GTA, Windsor and Ottawa remain as the three commonly seen clusters (Figure 41).
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Figure 48: Technical Services Providers in Southern Ontario
There are 26 businesses across Southern Ontario engaged in the manufacturing of Unmanned Aerials Systems. Three clusters in the GTA, Kitchener/Waterloo and Ottawa, are identified in Figure 48. Figure 49: Unmanned Aerial Systems Manufacturers in Southern Ontario
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Opportunities and Threats
With a multi-tier airport network and a strong presence in the aviation and aerospace sector, it's expected Southern Ontario will grow and succeed in the near decades. However, external shocks such as the COVID-19 Pandemic also impose threats to these growing industries. An Opportunities and Threats Analysis of Southern Ontario was undertaken to support the Wiarton Keppel International Airport's future roles in the broader region, based on secondary research (use of existing data collated, published research and similar documents). A summary of the analysis is outlined below.
Opportunities • Southern Ontario continues to have a projected solid economic growth over the next 20 years. • General Aviation is less affected by the pandemic and is forecasted to grow in the future. • Demands for flight training are recovering from the decline in 2020. When the pandemic is over, commercial pilot training demand will quickly increase. • Constraints and restrictions at Toronto Pearson create opportunities for regional and municipal airports to strengthen their roles in business aviation and corporate aviation. • With three (3) OEMs in the region, the aviation and aerospace value-chain are growing in urban centres and is expanding to some rural areas. • As the economy slowly switches from goods-producing to service-producing, demands and supplies of engineering and technical services are expected to increase in the aviation and aerospace sector.
Threats • Commercial air traffic decreased as a result of the economic downturn. • The COVID-19 pandemic has eased the pilot shortage, which reduces commercial pilot training demands. • There remains intense competition among Regional Airports for scheduled air services. • There remains intense competition among municipal airports for GA activities. • Municipal airports in Southern Ontario continue to face financial challenges. • The aviation and aerospace industry is relatively sensitive to business cycles.
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Solvency Airport Hangars
There are currently eight private hangars built at the Airport on land leased from the Township. The remaining terms of these hangars range from two to seventeen years, except for the land lease agreement with Hangar 1, which does not contain a cancellation clause to terminate the lease agreement mutually. In the case of Hangar 1, the land lease agreement can be cancelled with a ninety (90) day notice in writing of cancellation by either party.
In the absence of a termination clause for the land lease agreements, the Township of Georgian Bluffs would have to pay fair market value to the hangar owners and consider the hangar owners' capital invested in bringing services to their hangars.
Table 22: Airport Private Hangars Lease Term Date and Square Footage Official Hangar Approximate Number Term Start Date End Date Sq Ft. 1 20 Years Jan-13 Jan-33 6,000 3 20 Years Oct-18 Oct-38 3,348 4 20 Years Nov-03 Nov-23 5,848 5 20 Years Jul-05 Jun-25 4,900 6 20 Years Jul-05 Jun-25 2,916 7 20 Years May-18 Apr-38 2,916 8 20 Years Jul-09 Jun-29 3,000 9 20 Years Jun-18 May-38 3,132
Based on the initial estimates, it would cost the Township approximately $25 per square foot to purchase the hangars without utilities (including heat) and approximately $40 per square foot to purchase the hangars with utilities. Table 22: Hangar Purchase Cost outlines the estimated cost to purchase the hangars based on the type.
Table 23: Hangar Purchase Cost Hangar Type Total Leased Area Hangar Purchase Cost Hangars with Utilities 19,748 sf $789,920 Hangars without Utilities 12,312 sf $307,800 Total $1,097,720 Note: the hangar purchase cost provided above is an estimate. The price could change
Appendix F - 106 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study depending on the fair market value determined between the Township and Land Leaseholders at the time of closure.
Office Leases
There are currently nine active office space rental leases in the main terminal building. There is also a restaurant located on the Airport property, but it is currently negotiating a new lease agreement with the Township. Except for the office lease with the Canadian Coast Guard and Nav Canada, all other leases can be terminated with a minimum of sixty (60) days' written notice. Table 23: Office Space Leaseholder and Term of Lease in Main Terminaloutlines the companies leasing office space in the Airport terminal and their lease term.
Table 24: Office Space Leaseholder and Term of Lease in Main Terminal Office Leaseholder Term 113 Travel Agent Next Door 1 Year 117 Coast Guard 5 Year 115 Registered Massage Therapist 1 Year 112 Nav Canada 5 Year 202 Nav Canada Weather Office 5 Year 203 WandaWorks Studio 1 Year Greenhouse Technician and Horticultural 204 1 Year Therapist 204A Register Social Worker 6 Months 205 Bayside Aero 1 Year Airport Hungry Hangar TBD Restaurant
Airport Debt
In the case of closure, the Township of Georgian Bluffs is required to pay the debt taken in 2015 when the Township took over sole ownership of the Airport. As of March 2020, the remaining principal balance is $260,000.
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Environmental Site Assessment & Designated Substances Survey
An Environmental Site Assessment (ESA) is an essential part of due diligence for commercial property real estate transactions. An ESA helps identify potential or existing soil or groundwater contamination from the site's current and historical use, like petroleum, heavy metals, pesticides, or herbicides. Financial institutions typically require an ESA for commercial real estate transactions requiring financing before making a final decision of closure.
A Designated Substances Survey (DSS) is an assessment of a building that helps to determine whether asbestos, lead paint, or mould is present in building products.
The cost of these assessments varies depending on the extent of the ESA (Phase I or II) and the number of samples required for the DSS. An ESA Phase I can cost anywhere from $3K to $5K, and an ESA Phase II can vary from $7K to $60K, depending on the environmental issues (BDC Canada, 2021). These figures are averages for an ESA for real estate transactions.
As a part of this process, there is a potential that the Airport would have to be returned to its natural status, which would involve the deconstruction of buildings, pavement, and infrastructure on the site, which would create additional costs. In this case, the ESA fees would be higher, and a Record of Site Condition would be required at an additional cost.
Fuel Farm
The Airport currently has two underground fuel storage tanks, one each for Avgas and Jet Fuel. The Avgas underground tank can hold approximately 22,500 L of fuel, whereas the Jet fuel tank can hold 37,000 L of fuel.
If the Township decides to close the Airport, it must remove both underground tanks. The process to remove the underground tanks is highly regulated as there are potential risks to health and the environment and the associated liability to property owners. The Technical Standards and Safety Authority (TSSA) for the Province of Ontario regulates transportation, storage, handling, and fuel use to ensure conformance with the Technical Standards and Safety Act, 2000 (Ontario Government, 2020).
Fuel storage tank removals must be completed by a qualified TSSA Registered Fuel Oil Contractor whose personnel are trained and certified as a Petroleum Equipment Mechanic 2 in compliance with the TSSA Act, 2000 and who work in accordance with applicable Regulations, Codes and Standard (Storage Tanks, 2017).
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The clean-up costs depend on various factors, including the extent of soil contamination and provincial cleanup standards. The average cleanup is estimated to cost $130,000. If only a small amount of soil needs to be removed or treated, cleanup costs may be as low as $10,000. However, costs to clean more extensive soil contamination may exceed $130,000. Corrective action for leaks that affect groundwater typically costs from $100,000 to over $1 million, depending on the extent of the contamination. (Underground Storage Tanks (USTs), 2021)
Airport Certification
The Wiarton Keppel International Airport is the only certified airport in Grey and Bruce Counties. It will be a significant loss to the Grey-Bruce Region if the Township of Georgian Bluffs Council decides to close the Airport.
Airport Certification requires an operator to maintain and operate the site according to Transport Canada’s TP 312- Aerodrome Standards and Recommended Practices (Transport Canada Chapter 6 - Airports, 14). Transport Canada staff conduct regular inspections to ensure compliance. Aerodromes in Canada must be certified when: • Located within the built-up area of a city or town. • Used by an air carrier as the main operations base, or for scheduled passenger-carrying service. • The Minister considers certification is in the public interest.
Some of the advantages of a Certified Airport are: • Registered Aerodromes cannot have scheduled CAR 704 commuter or 705 or airline service. • Insurance costs may be more expensive for registered aerodromes. • Some aircraft insurance companies restrict private jet aircraft (particularly if they are registered in the United States) from operating in non-certified aerodromes.
Once an airport loses its certification, it would take a long time to regain status and not be conducive to quick airline start-ups or airline service resumption. With the expansion of Bruce Power and other associated businesses, it is critical to have a certified airport in the region that could cater to users' needs who would require scheduled passenger service. Certified airports with scheduled service are also eligible for Airport Capital Assistance Program (ACAP) funding after three years of successful operations of year-round passenger service.
The Wiarton Keppel International Airport is grandfathered to the 3rd and 4th Editions of TP 312 - Aerodrome Standards and Recommended Practices. If certification is lost, the Wiarton Keppel International Airport may have to meet the current standards of TP 312 - Aerodrome Standards and Recommended Practices, i.e., 5th Edition, to regain certification.
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It may cost the Airport several millions of dollars to meet all the current standards in terms of airport infrastructure, including airfield lighting.
Other Considerations:
Staff Displacement If the Airport closed, the Township of Georgian Bluffs must make decisions regarding the municipal staff employed at the Airport. Currently, there is one permanent full-time, one temporary full-time and one temporary part-time staff employed by the Township at the Airport. The temporary part-time position is employed at the Airport only during the winter months to help with snow clearing operations.
Airport Contract The Township is currently on a month-to-month basis. The Loomex Group is currently supplying an Airport Manager to assist the Township through the current transition. There is no cost required to cancel the contract.
Medevac Operations The Airport manages approximately 30 to 40 medevac flights per year. Medevac flights are flights operated to transport critically ill or injured patients that need immediate or urgent care, and it also includes flights operated to transport organs. In the case of a non- emergency, medevac flights must land at an airport or heliport.
Although most of the medevac flights at the Airport are operated by a rotary-wing aircraft, flights are also operated by fixed-wing aircraft. Most of the organ transportation flights have been operated by fixed-wing aircraft due to their range and speed.
Should the Airport close, the nearest airport for both fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft to land would be the Owen Sound Airport, which is approximately 42 km away from the Airport. This would result in approximately 30 to 60 minutes of transportation times for the patients who would need immediate attention and transfer to specialized health care centres in Waterloo, Hamilton, London, and Toronto. Any delays with medevac flights may interfere with the timely life-saving care of residents.
Nav Canada Office Lease The Nav Canada office lease at the Airport covers two separate offices located within the main terminal building, one on the main level and the other on the second level. The office on the main level houses the communication equipment of Nav Canada and is not staffed. The office on the second level maintains a Contract Weather Office (CWO) and is staffed 24 hours a day. The CWO provides critical weather information to air traffic, including visibility, wind speed, and special weather statements. In 2019, Nav Canada initiated an aeronautical study to determine if an Automated Weather Observation System (AWOS) will
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be an acceptable means of providing aviation weather observations to meet operational requirements at the Airport instead of the current CWO. In 2020, the study recommended that the CWO be closed and that an AWOS with digital aviation weather cameras and a Voice Generator Sub-System be installed. The study highlighted that this would support the aviation weather services requirement by gathering the necessary aviation weather data to produce 24-hour meteorological aviation reports and 12-hour terminal area forecasts without increasing the risk to aviation safety. The exact date of the installation of AWOS and closure of CWO is not yet confirmed.
The office lease with Nav Canada expires on April 30, 2023.
Canadian Coast Guard Office Lease The Canadian Coast maintains office space on the main level of the airport terminal building. The office is not staffed regularly, but it houses very critical communication equipment for the Coast Guard, covering huge water bodies around the region. As part of the lease agreement, the Canadian Coast Guard also maintains the following on the Airport property: • 1 Radiating Beacon Tower • 2 VHF Antennae mounted on 80’ tower • 6 DGPS Antennae mounted on the Airport roof
The office lease with the Canadian Coast Guard expires on June 30, 2021.
Table 25: Solvency Cost Review Description Known Cost GA Hangar Purchases $1,098,000 Airport Debt Repayment $260,000 Total $1,358,000 Environmental Consideration Potential Cost ESA Phase I $10,000 - $25,000 ESA Phase II $10,000 - $65,000 Designated Substances Survey $10,000 - $30,000 Fuel Tank Removal $10,000 - $130,000 (Groundwater Remediation) $100,000 - $1,000,000+ *Ranges vary dependant on the condition of the environmental parameter
**Does not include the cost for site demolition and removal
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Economic Outlook of Ontario
As the most vital province measured by economic output, Ontario contributed 38.6% towards Canada's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2019. Over the next 25 years, Ontario's nominal GDP is expected to grow at an annual rate of 3.9%. Real GDP will grow at a slightly lower rate of 2.0% per year. Despite a global economic slowdown in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, businesses, national leaders, and industry experts continue to hold an optimistic view of Ontario's economic outlook in the decades ahead.
Business Confidence
Companies in Ontario continue to have confidence in the economy's future growth when recovering from the downturn in 2020. A provincial-wide survey conducted by the Ontario Chamber of Commerce revealed that more than 60% of participating businesses felt confident about Ontario's economic outlook in the next decade.
A corresponding 2020 Ontario Economic Report listed the top four most commonly cited drivers of business confidence in Ontario's economy, which include: Skilled and Productive Workforce (30%); Economic Growth Projections (28%); Population Growth Projections (28%); and Technological Innovation (25%).
Labour Productivity
Labour productivity in Ontario has been growing for the past two decades. Productivity is projected to continue as a growing trend with its historical average (1.1% per year) over the long term. As summarized by the Ministry of Finance, investment in Physical Capital, Labour Force Skills, and Technological Progress remain the key drivers of labour productivity.
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Figure 50: Ontario Historic Labour Productivity Growth, (Ontario Ministry of Finance)
Population Growth Projection
Population growth is an important economic indicator as it expands the labour force, resulting in more output. It is expected that the Southern Ontario population will reach 18.9 million by 2046, representing a 36.9% growth over the next 25 years. The population of the GTA is expected to grow by 47% by 2046 (Ontario Ministry of Finance).
Figure 51: Projected Regional Population Growth from 2019 to 2046
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Trade and Technological Innovation
Trade agreements and technological innovations have lowered trade costs, encouraging emerging market economies to integrate into the global economy and making Global Value Chains (GVCs) economically viable. The emergence of GVCs has allowed countries to specialize in service-orientated tasks and increase the tradability of modern services such as telecommunications, information services, and financial intermediation.
In the past decades, exports of services from Ontario to other provinces and the international market have generally grown faster than goods exports as the economy shifts from goods-producing to service-producing industries.
Since 1981, the proportion of services exports has grown significantly, as shown in Error! Reference source not found. based on Ontario Ministry of Finance data. Such a structural shift is expected to continue in the following decades.
Figure 52: Ontario Historic Exports, (Ontario Ministry of Finance)
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Airport Economic Impact This portion of the report focuses on identifying and quantifying the direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts of the Airport’s activities and its tenants. An economic impact assessment helps understand the real economic contribution of the Airport at the regional level. The findings should be used in various discussions and at multiple levels (municipal, regional, provincial, and federal) to demonstrate the Airport's importance as an asset for the Grey-Bruce Region.
Each economic impact is summarized below to provide a common understanding of the terminology in this section:
Direct Economic Impacts Direct Economic Impacts measure the magnitude of the economic impact generated at the Airport from the tenants (including the Airport) and passengers visiting the region (i.e., tourism spending and attraction). This is the effect generated by the operating expenses, the labour force, their remuneration, and other elements contributing to GDP (i.e., gross profits, inventories/stocks, social benefits and taxes) and government revenues.
Indirect Economic Impacts Indirect Economic Impacts refer to the chain reactions that the Airport activities generate in the regional economy - particularly the jobs and activities generated by regional subcontractors and suppliers collaborating with the airport tenants. In other words, companies in the Grey-Bruce region and across Ontario, whose income-generating activities are positively impacted by the vitality of the Airport and its traffic, are included in this category.
Induced Economic Impacts Induced Economic Impacts are the multiplier effects generated by the expenses. Expenditures have direct and indirect effects, and a portion of this revenue is re-injected into the economy in the form of new spending on goods and services (consumer spending). These new expenditures will become, in part, revenue for other economic agents who will use, in turn, a fraction to make new expenses, and so on.
A survey of the Airport and commercial Airport Tenants provided the means to get the most accurate data. An exhaustive list of tenants and users was created with the assistance of the Airport Manager.
In parallel, Explorer Solutions and The Loomex Group prepared a letter of introduction and a supporting questionnaire. Microsoft Forms, an online surveying tool, was utilized to build and house the questionnaire. In early March, a series of phone calls and emails were made to increase participation rates.
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The data collected was consolidated into a comprehensive information matrix. Of the eight businesses targeted to support the Economic Impact Analysis, six participated, representing a 75% participation rate. The Economic Impact Survey asked respondents for the following information to assist with the financial analysis: • Total Annual Revenue • Total Annual Operating Expenses • Number of Full-time Employees • Number of Part-time Employees • Average Wage / Salary of Employees • Average Salary of Owners
The following sections present the aggregated results of the Economic Impact Analysis.
Economic Impact Estimations The Economic Impact Study results are segmented into direct, indirect, and induced impacts. Data obtained from the Airport Manager regarding information specific to the Wiarton Keppel International Airport. The Commercial Airport Tenant’s information was obtained from the previously mentioned questionnaire.
The commercial operators considered for calculating the economic impact are situated on the Airport property and include the Airport, Wanda Works, Bayside Aero, Hungry Hangar Restaurant, a local horticulture specialist, an independent Registered Social Worker, a Registered Massage Therapist, and a local travel agent. The results provide a glimpse of the magnitude and impact of the Airport and its tenants' activity along the value chain (as shown in the sections below).
Jobs, Payroll Expenses and Taxes The study revealed that seventeen positions exist at the Airport, with fourteen full-time and three part-time employees. When factoring in the indirect and induced effects, it is estimated that twenty-six jobs result from the Airport’s existence in the community. The Airport and its tenants had a Gross Payroll expense of $931,985 in 2020, which contributed to $207,669 in direct payroll tax revenue to the Provincial and Federal Governments. A combined property tax value of $5,154 was paid to the municipality in 2020.
Corporate Spending Due to confidentiality reasons, total gross corporate revenues/profits were not disclosed, and as a result, paid corporate taxes paid were not calculated. Corporate expenses were partially disclosed to the extent that total operating expenses for three commercial operators (including the Airport) were provided. The partially revealed data showed a corporate spend of $455,030 in the past year.
Past Capital Investment
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A capital investment of $34,000 in 2020 was identified throughout the study. The cost of crack sealing of the Airport surface is $22,000, and the cost of Obstacle Limitation Surfaces (OLS) is $12,000 (with ongoing reviews and tree clearing tasks).
Total Economic Impact Table 25 provides a detailed overview of the recurrent and non-recurrent economic impacts generated by the Airport and its tenants for each category and type of impact. Together, direct expenditures contributed to an economic impact of $1,633,838 (65.8%) in 2020, along with estimated indirect and induced effect of the economic impacts, which are $522,828 (21.1%) and $326,768 (13.2%), respectively. In total, the Airport’s economic impact on the region is $2,483,433.
Table 26: Summary of the 2020 Direct, Indirect and Induced Economic Impacts
Category Direct Effect Indirect Effect Induced Effect Total
Total Jobs 17 5 4 26 Created (14 FTE & 3 PTE) (4 FTE & 1 PTE) (3 FTE & 1 PTE) (21 FTE & 5 PTE) Gross Payroll $931,985 $298,235 $186,397 $1,416,617 Provincial Government Payroll $56,860 $18,195 $11,372 $86,427 Tax Revenue Federal Government Payroll $150,809 $48,259 $30,162 $229,229 Tax Revenue Total Government $207,669 $66,454 $41,534 $315,656 Revenue Municipal Taxes $5,154 $1,649 $1,031 $7,834 Corporate $455,030 $145,610 $91,006 $691,646 Expenses Past Capital $34,000 $10,880 $6,800 $51,680 Investments $1,633,838 $522,828 $326,768 $2,483,433 Grand Total 65.8% 21.1% 13.2% 100%
General Aviation
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Municipal Airports play a crucial role in general aviation. General aviation includes all kinds of unscheduled civil aviation activities, such as leisure visits, medical evacuation, aerial work, corporate flights, and public service. According to a SOAN study, long-term forecasts of general aviation activity are stable, with hours flown by turbine aircraft and rotorcraft expected to increase 2.4% over the next two (2) decades.
Business Aviation Figure 53: Distribution of Business Aviation Aircraft Business (corporate) Aviation Across Canada (CBAA, 2017) remains a key usage of municipal airports in Southern Ontario. Currently, there are an estimated 1,900 business aviation aircraft in operation, including both fixed-wing (76%) and rotor wing aircraft (24%) in Canada, of which one-fourth (504 aircraft) is Ontario based. An Economic Impact Study conducted by the Canadian Business Aviation Association (CBAA) revealed that Ontario's business aviation industry contributes $420 million in direct annual GDP with more than 3,000 jobs created. Business Aircraft Manufacturing also contributes $260 million to GDP every year, creating more than 2,300 jobs in Ontario (CBAA, 2017).
Toronto Pearson International Airport was a popular choice for business aviation due to its robust infrastructure and proximity to Toronto's business district. However, business aviation is expected to be crowded out of Toronto Pearson and will relocate to regional and municipal airports in Southern Ontario due to constraints, congestion, and Toronto Pearson's strategic direction to become a Mega Hub. The estimated number of corporate aviation movements at Toronto Pearson will soon decrease in the coming years from 24,000 movements per year to 12,000 movements. The relocation of business aviation activities to other airports in Southern Ontario provides regional airports with an opportunity to better utilize their runways and hangars by catering to wide-body aircraft.
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Funding Sources
Table 27: Grant/Funding Opportunities
Grant/Fund Name Description
Ontario Capital expenditures on core infrastructure projects (such as roads, Community bridges, water and wastewater, including sanitary and stormwater Infrastructure Fund facilities) that are part of an asset management plan are eligible. • Receive annual allocation notices specifying OCIF funding for the calendar year • May accumulate annual formula-based grants for up to five years to address larger infrastructure projects • Are guaranteed to receive a minimum of $50,000 per year
Ontario Municipal The program helps Ontario's 405 small and rural municipalities find Modernization better, more efficient ways to operate and serve their residents. Program Funding can be used to conduct reviews of service delivery and administrative expenditures to find efficiencies or implement a range of projects, including an online system developed to improve the local process for approving residential and industrial developments or setting up new shared services with neighbouring municipalities.
Southwestern To be eligible, projects need to: Ontario • Be led by municipalities, economic development organizations or Development Fund sector organizations (Community • Focus on economic and business development and job creation economic in the community or region by investing in infrastructure or development implementing strategies to advance regional economic projects) development priorities • Lead to measurable outcomes, including private sector investment, growth and job creation • Invest more than $100,000 • Have private sector support • Be used for activities that are new to the organization
Rural Economic Economic Diversification and Competitiveness Stream Development Strategic Economic Infrastructure Stream program Tourism Economic Development and Recovery Fund • Municipalities and destination marketing organizations (regional
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Grant/Fund Name Description tourism organizations are not eligible) • Indigenous organizations • Ontario tourism industry associations • Not-for-profit organizations (with a clearly defined tourism focus) for-profit tourism organizations
Federal Infrastructure Canada - Investing in Canada Infrastructure Government Program (ICIP) Funding As part of the Investing in Canada plan, Infrastructure Canada will deliver $33 billion through bilateral agreements with provinces and territories under four funding streams: • $20.1 billion for public transit; • $9.2 billion for green infrastructure; • $1.3 billion for community, cultural and recreational infrastructure; and • $2 billion for wide-ranging infrastructure needs in rural and northern communities.
These agreements will provide long-term funding to address ongoing infrastructure needs over the next decade. To address the challenges faced by communities as a result of COVID-19, the ICIP now includes a new COVID-19 resilience stream, offering expanded project eligibility and allowing for accelerated approvals.
Federal Airport Capital Assistance Program (ACAP) Government Airports that can get funding under this program: Funding • Are not owned or operated by the Government of Canada • Meet federal certification requirements • Offer year-round commercial passenger service with a minimum of 1,000 passengers per year *Note: If an airport is termed "remote" under the National Airports Policy, the 1,000 passengers per year minimum does not apply • Serve less than 525,000 passengers per year
National Trade Support the flow of goods and passengers by reducing bottlenecks Corridors Fund and address capacity issues; • Help the transportation system withstand the effects of climate change and makes sure it is able to support new technologies
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Grant/Fund Name Description and innovation; • Address the unique transportation needs in Canada's North to improve safety and facilitate economic and social development • Build on investments made by a variety of public and private sector partners • The Program does not have repayable contributions
New Building The New Building Canada Fund – Provincial-Territorial Canada Fund – Infrastructure Component – National and Regional Projects Provincial- provides funding to support infrastructure projects of national and Territorial regional significance that contribute to economic growth, a clean Infrastructure environment and stronger communities. The PTIC-NRP is an Component – allocation-based program that recognizes and supports the National and important role that provinces, territories, and municipalities play in Regional Projects helping to build Canada's public infrastructure. Projects will allow (PTIC-NRP) people and goods to move more freely, increase the potential for innovation and economic development, and improve the environment and support stronger, safer communities. The PTIC-NRP started in 2014-2015 and is scheduled to end in 2023-2024.
New Building The New Building Canada Fund – Provincial-Territorial Canada Fund – Infrastructure Component – Small Communities Fund represents 10 Provincial- percent of the overall Provincial-Territorial Infrastructure Component Territorial funding envelope. This Sub-Program provides contribution funding Infrastructure for infrastructure projects in small communities with populations of Component – 100,000 or less. The PTIC-SCF supports projects of national, Small regional and local significance that contribute to economic growth, a Communities Fund clean environment and stronger communities. Projects will allow (PTIC-SCF) people and goods to move more freely, increase the potential for innovation and economic development, and help to improve the environment and support stronger, safer communities. The PTIC-SCF started in 2014-2015 and is scheduled to end in 2023-2024. No additional project proposals are being accepted under this program presently.
Regional Air Eligible applicants are: Transportation • Regional and local air carriers Initiative (RATI) • Regional and local airports
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Grant/Fund Name Description • Businesses, cooperatives, business groups, not-for-profit organizations and public institutions that are part of the regional air transportation ecosystem
Eligible activities include: • The design and implementation of solutions for increased regional air transportation connectivity, to complement other federal measures and those that Transport Canada will be implementing. • The development and implementation of enhanced services to support regional connectivity. • The cash flow needs of regional and local airports. • Adaptation and modernization measures to maintain and improve operations.
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Financials 2021 Current Financial Status 2016 2017 % Chg 2018 % Chg 2019 % Chg 2020 % Chg % Chg (Proposed) Revenues Land Leases, Building Rentals, Hangar Leases $29,476.88 $41,543.91 41% $48,536.11 17% $61,422.57 27% $59,931.31 -2% $61,500.00 3% Fuel Sales $105,504.37 $122,852.84 16% $153,064.81 25% $213,429.17 39% $142,481.87 -33% $181,000.00 27% Parking, Landing, Call out fees $2,991.76 $10,551.50 253% $13,085.00 24% $17,484.57 34% $6,550.00 -63% $10,500.00 60% Bank Interest Earned $816.87 $1,799.48 120% $1,796.74 0% $2,875.66 60% $2,379.08 -17% $2,500.00 5% Donations $1,630.31 $620.00 -62% $60.00 -90% $- -100% $- 0% $- 0% Miscellaneous Revenues $608.81 $2,655.54 336% $56,223.29 2017% $15,581.83 -72% $2,528.53 -84% $3,000.00 19% Gain on Sale of Hangar #3 $- $32,087.24 0% $- -100% $- 0% $- 0% $- 0% Reserve $- $- 0% $98,737.00 0% $58,530.60 -41% $- 100% $- 0% Other $- $40,000.00 0% $- -100% $- 0% $- 0% $- 0% Total Revenue $141,029.00 $252,110.51 79% $371,502.95 47% $369,324.40 -1% $213,870.79 -42% $258,500.00 21%
Expenses Salaries & Benefits & Training & Mileage $88,315.30 $263,215.41 198% $247,581.90 -6% $271,696.97 10% $164,395.87 -39% $165,000.00 0% Management Contract $87,191.69 $- -100% $- 0% $- 0% $117,250.00 0% $130,000.00 11% Heat, Hydro, Water, Telephone, Internet $47,191.35 $44,765.66 -5% $34,523.66 -23% $39,377.29 14% $33,156.97 -16% $33,000.00 0% Office, Materials & Supplies $17,560.21 $20,097.19 14% $15,721.58 -22% $22,691.59 44% $14,769.67 -35% $15,000.00 2% Insurance $17,626.68 $18,846.14 7% $19,694.00 4% $20,120.40 2% $22,426.20 11% $25,000.00 11% Bank Service Charges $2,511.27 $3,306.88 32% $4,119.00 25% $5,470.59 33% $4,547.80 -17% $4,000.00 -12% Membership Fees & Subscriptions $696.50 $2,930.47 321% $1,910.33 -35% $3,818.00 100% $3,953.37 4% $5,250.00 33% Professional Fees $2,940.00 $1,580.00 -46% $3,582.14 127% $3,902.86 9% $10,650.10 173% $3,000.00 -72% Fuel Purchases $65,670.19 $92,550.98 41% $122,458.82 32% $194,466.43 59% $124,264.00 -36% $156,750.00 26% Safety Management System $756.14 $18.43 -98% $158.58 760% $- -100% $28.34 0% $- -100% Building & Property Maintenance/Prop Tax $25,277.16 $20,749.07 -18% $12,270.80 -41% $28,077.52 129% $24,878.97 -11% $15,500.00 -38% Runway Maintenance $2,637.51 $28,031.64 963% $5,587.92 -80% $5,028.53 -10% $26,015.98 417% $5,000.00 -81% Equipment Maintenance $17,420.01 $9,345.92 -46% $11,853.24 27% $15,419.74 30% $14,502.76 -6% $18,000.00 24% Special Projects $52,950.00 $26,838.39 -49% $31,500.00 17% $58,530.60 86% $5,802.00 -90% $- -100% Bad Debt Expense $13,384.42 $- -100% $56.27 0% $10,965.60 19387% $- -100% $- 0% Total Expenses* $442,128.43 $532,276.18 20% $511,018.24 -4% $679,566.12 33% $566,642.03 -17% $575,500.00 2% *Does not include debt repayment Capital Expenses $- $173,388.42 0% $162,596.22 -6% $156,821.12 -4% $36,758.94 -77% $200,060.00 444% Amount funded from GB Tax Levy $301,099.43 $453,554.09 51% $302,111.51 -33% $467,062.84 55% $389,530.18 -17% $517,060.00 33% Cumulative Total 2016 and 2017 $754,653.52 $1,056,765.03 $1,523,827.87 $1,913,358.05 $2,430,418.05
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Prosperity Hub Property Tax Estimations
Prosperity Hub Property Tax ($)
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Total Non-Aviation $194,293 $388,587 $582,880 $680,027 $777,173 $874,320 $971,467 $1,068,613 $1,165,760 $1,262,907 $7,966,026 Property* Aviation $0 $36,430 $72,860 $109,290 $121,433 $133,577 $145,720 $157,863 $170,007 $182,150 $1,129,330 Property**
General Aviation $0 $0 $6,529 $26,116 $32,645 $32,645 $32,645 $32,645 $32,645 $32,645 $228,518 Property***
Hotel $0 $0 $0 $43,527 $43,963 $44,402 $44,846 $45,295 $45,748 $46,205 $313,985 Property****
$194,293 $425,017 $662,269 $858,960 $975,215 $1,084,944 $1,194,678 $1,304,417 $1,414,160 $1,523,907 $9,637,860
Basis of Value: Non-Aviation * Based on Avg between Commercial and Industrial By-Law 2020-061, 26 of 20,000 sq.ft Building Valued at $2M Property Finished Value Aviation ** Based on Avg between Commercial and Industrial By-Law 2020-061, 10,000 sq.ft Building Valued at Property $500,000.00 Finished Value General Aviation Based on Commercial New Construction Tax Rate, 3,000 sq.ft hangar $300,000 Property Hotel Property Based on Commercial By-Law 2020-061, 73,065 sq.ft Building Valued at $2,000,000.00 Finished Value, CPI 1%
Appendix J- 124 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
Prosperity Hub: Ten Year Phased Approach The Hub requires dedicated resources with expertise in aviation, aerospace, and business development to meet the initiatives and goals of the airport owner. Below is a high-level overview of the costs associated.
Marketing funds are necessary to attract and promote the Prosperity Hub. The marketing funds are anticipated to be a combination of material costs, campaign costs, and service fees. The Economic Development offices may be an integral part of the promotion of the Prosperity Hub.
A business case needs to be developed to compare the options and the available funding, and the worst-case scenario does not consider: • Funds through grants from various levels of Government • More rapid growth of the General Aviation land requiring additional hangars. • A strategy and implementation of fixed-base operation services
Table 28: Incorporation Costs Corporation Costs ($)
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Total
Incorporation* $40,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $40,000 President/ $90,000 $183,600 $187,272 $191,017 $194,838 $198,735 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $200,000 $1,845,462 CEO** Marketing $45,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $100,000 $945,000 Resource***
Total Cost $175,000 $283,600 $287,272 $291,017 $294,838 $298,735 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $300,000 $2,830,462
Basis of Value: * Town of Midland Business Case: Municipal Development Corp. 2017/10/02, Almost There Inc. **Based on Review of Salaries Across Ontario for Similar Roles ***Resources TBA by Working Group
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Airport Operations
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Total
Revenue $310,200 $372,240 $409,464 $450,410 $495,451 $544,997 $599,496 $659,446 $725,390 $797,929 $5,365,024
Costs $575,500 $592,765 $605,243 $628,539 $642,102 $661,365 $679,312 $700,305 $730,395 $755,220 $6,570,746
Net -$265,300 -$220,525 -$195,779 -$178,129 -$146,651 -$116,368 -$79,815 -$40,859 -$5,005 $42,709 -$1,205,721
Agricultural Lands
Past studies had indicated that it is possible to attract and develop the farmlands for agro-food incubator and experimental farming, which may be explored in other years; however, once the existing lease is complete (2022), the Airport agricultural lands have been identified to achieve greater revenue (Section 6.2 Agriculture).
Agricultural Lands ($)
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Total
Revenue* $0 $29,574 $30,018 $30,468 $30,925 $31,389 $31,860 $32,337 $32,823 $33,315 $282,708 Cost $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net $0 $29,574 $30,018 $30,468 $30,925 $31,389 $31,860 $32,337 $32,823 $33,315 $282,708
*See Section 6.2 Agriculture
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Runway Rehabilitation Year 2023
With the existing runway condition and the anticipated increase in air traffic, the runway rehabilitation is necessary to have completed. For such large capital projects, there is typically an undertaking to obtain funding from different levels of government who are willing to invest, resulting in typically 50% coverage of the costs but can have upwards of 80% applied from grants; both scenarios have been calculated below.
Runway Rehabilitation 50% Funded 80% Funded
$4,599,400 $2,599,700 $3,679,520
Net Cost for Airport $2,599,700 $ 919,800
Phase 1: Site Prep for Non-Aviation Industrial and Commercial Lands
The projections are based on assumptions and estimates inherently open to variations dependent upon business case development. One example could be the lands are a combination of leased land and sold parcels dependent upon a mutually beneficial arrangement or what size of building the investor chooses to design. The revenues have been calculated using the lot sale as the base. The owner of the land would then be responsible to prepare and build on the lands as approved and guided by the Airport.
Development fees are an agreement between the Chief Building Officials and the airport for having oversight of development on federal lands.
Utility recovery fee is an ongoing fee to recover the infrastructure funds to bring services to the sites. There are grants and loans available which have not been identified due to the inability to project the amount that could be received.
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Phase 1: Site Prep for Non-Aviation Industrial and Commercial Lands
Revenue Yr. 1 Yr. 2 Yr. 3 Yr. 4 Yr. 5 Yr. 6 Yr. 7 Yr. 8 Yr. 9 Yr. 10 Total
Lot Sale $135,000 $137,700 $140,454 $71,632 $73,064 $74,525 $76,016 $77,536 $79,087 $80,669 $945,683
Development $74,320 $74,320 $74,320 $37,161 $37,161 $37,161 $37,161 $37,161 $37,161 $37,161 $483,088 Fee Utility $15,682 $31,363 $47,045 $54,886 $62,726 $70,567 $78,408 $86,249 $94,090 $101,930 $1,428,772 Recovery Fee
Total $225,002 $243,383 $261,819 $163,678 $172,952 $182,254 $191,585 $200,946 $210,338 $219,760 $2,071,717 Revenue
Costs
Access Roads $42,018 $42,018 $42,018 $42,018 $42,018 $88,159 $88,159 $88,159 $88,159 $88,159 $650,887
Utilities $58,075 $58,075 $58,075 $58,075 $16,450 $0 $0 $0 $248,750
Total Costs $100,093 $100,093 $100,093 $100,093 $58,468 $88,159 $88,159 $88,159 $88,159 $88,159 $899,637
Net $124,909 $143,290 $161,726 $63,585 $114,484 $94,094 $103,426 $112,787 $122,178 $131,601 $1,172,080
Notes:
Developable Land 456,459.33 m2 (112.79 Acres); 4.5 acres developed in each of first three years for a total of 29.25 or 26%, Lot Sale reduced to 2.25 acres over the next 7, $30,000 per acre and 1 of 20,000 sq.ft. Building Occupant per acre is assumed Development Fee Based on 1858/m2 at $10.00/m2 Qty 4 buildings Years 1 to 3; Years 4 to 10 Qty 2 Buildings Utility Recovery Fee $0.08/sq.ft of land 43,560 sq.ft./acre Access Roads $333/sq.meter based on Access Road 2,972.97 sq.meter YVV Report up to Year 10 Utilities YVV Economic Impact & Feasibility Study
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Phase 2: Site Prep for Aviation Industrial and Commercial Lands (D1)
Development fees are an agreement between the Chief Building Officials and the airport for having oversight of development on federal lands.
Phase 2: Site Prep for Aviation Industrial and Commercial Lands- D1 ($)
Revenue Yr. 2 Yr. 3 Yr. 4 Yr. 5 Yr. 6 Yr. 7 Yr. 8 Yr. 9 Yr. 10 Total
Lease $0 $43,124 $86,249 $129,373 $143,748 $158,123 $172,498 $186,872 $201,247 $215,622 Flight School $0 $0 $2,376 $2,376 $2,376 $2,376 $2,376 $2,376 $2,376 $2,376 Lease Flight School Fuel $0 $0 $4,250 $4,335 $4,422 $4,510 $4,600 $4,692 $4,786 $4,882 Sales Development Fee $0 $27,870 $27,870 $27,870 $9,290 $9,290 $9,290 $9,290 $9,290 $9,290 Utility Recovery $0 $10,454 $20,909 $31,363 $34,848 $38,333 $41,818 $45,302 $48,787 $52,272 Fee
Total Revenue $0 $81,449 $141,654 $195,317 $194,684 $212,632 $230,582 $248,533 $266,487 $284,442
Costs
Access Roads $0 $77,700 $77,700 $77,700 $77,700 $77,700 $77,700 $77,700 $77,700 $77,700
Fuel Cost $0 $0 $3,750 $3,825 $3,902 $3,980 $4,059 $4,140 $4,223 $4,308 Utilities $0 $63,750 $63,750 $63,750 $63,750 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Total Costs $0 $141,450 $145,200 $145,275 $145,352 $81,680 $81,759 $81,840 $81,923 $82,008
Net $0 -$60,001 -$3,546 $50,042 $49,332 $130,952 $148,822 $166,693 $184,563 $202,434
Appendix J - 129 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
Phase 2 Notes: Developable Land is 483,800 m2 (119.5 acres); 0.33/sq.ft lease rate per current market rates; 3 acres developed in each Lease of the first 3 years, and 1 acre years 7 - 10 or 2.5%; 10,000 sq.ft/build owner to prepare site and utility hook ups Flight School Lease 6000 sq.ft. Building/7200 sq.ft lot@ 0.33.sq.ft Flight School Fuel Sales 5 Aircraft at 100L/day, 5 days per week @ 1.7 per litre Development Fee Based on 929/m2 at $10.00/m2 Qty 3 buildings Years 1 to 3; Years 4 to 10 Qty 1 Buildings Total 15 Utility Recovery Fee $0.08/sq.ft of land 43,560 sq.ft./acre Access Roads $333/sq.meter based on Access Road 2,100 sq.meter (210m x 10m); YVV Economic Impact & Feasibility Study
Fuel Cost 5 Aircraft at 100L/day, 5 days per week @ 1.5 per litre Utilities YVV Economic Impact & Feasibility Study
Phase 3: General Aviation Promotion and Fill Existing Lots
The owner of the hangar would be responsible for the site preparation, hangar builds and bringing utilities to the hangar.
Phase 3: General Aviation Promotion and Fill Existing Lots
Revenue Yr. 4 Yr. 5 Yr. 6 Yr. 7 Yr. 8 Yr. 9 Yr. 10 Total
$1,000 $4,000 $5,000 $5,100 $5,202 $5,306 $5,412 $5,520 Based on GA Hangar Builds, Fuel Sales CPI 2% Lease $1,613 $6,453 $8,067 $8,228 $8,393 $8,561 $8,732 $8,906 Based on 4,889 sq.ft/3,000 sq.ft Hangar $0.33/sq.ft; 1 hangar Year 3, 4 hangars Year 4 Total of 5 hangars Total $2,613 $10,453 $13,067 $13,328 $13,595 $13,867 $14,144 $14,427
Net $2,613 $10,453 $13,067 $13,328 $13,595 $13,867 $14,144 $14,427
Appendix J - 130 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
Phase 4: Hotel Development
The hotel concept is the intended guests for corporate visitors and flight school attendees and less focus on tourism being sightseeing tours, travel to lodges etc. whereas the Hotel Study Town of South Bruce Peninsula Market Feasibility Study relied on tourism as the majority of guests and less reliant upon corporate guests due to the location. Additionally, the Study identified the area could use 180 rooms without affecting the feasibility study’s financial forecasts and impacts for the proposed hotel.
Phase 4: Hotel Development
Revenue Yr. 4 Yr. 5 Yr. 6 Yr. 7 Yr. 8 Yr. 9 Yr. 10 Total 47,539.70 m2/11.75 acres, Lot Sale $352,500 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $352,500 Based on $30K/acre Development Fee Based on $10.00/m2; 73,065 sq.ft/6788 m2 $67,880 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $67,880 building Service Fee $0.08/sq.ft based on $5,845 $5,845 $5,845 $5,845 $5,845 $5,845 $5,845 $40,916 73,065 sq.ft.
Total Revenue $426,225 $5,845 $5,845 $5,845 $5,845 $5,845 $5,845 $461,296
Costs Utilities $100,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $100,000 To property line
Total Costs $100,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $100,000
Net $326,225 $5,845 $5,845 $5,845 $5,845 $5,845 $5,845 $361,296
Appendix J - 131 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
Summary of Prosperity Hub Ten Year Revenue and Cost
Yr. 1 Yr. 2 Yr. 3 Yr. 4 Yr. 5 Yr. 6 Yr. 7 Yr. 8 Yr. 9 Yr. 10 Total
Revenue $535,202 $726,646 $845,567 $1,276,553 $912,924 $990,444 $1,072,962 $1,160,975 $1,255,027 $1,355,719 $10,132,018 Cost $850,593 $1,117,908 $1,137,808 $1,264,924 $1,140,759 $1,129,938 $1,149,230 $1,170,305 $1,200,478 $1,225,387 $11,387,331
Net -$315,391 -$391,262 -$292,241 $11,628 -$227,835 -$139,494 -$76,268 -$9,330 $54,549 $130,332 -$1,255,312
Note: • Phases outside of 10 Year Development Plan have not been forecasted but can be phased in on-demand • Additional Commercial & Industrial Land • Additional General Aviation Hangar • Education Facility • Fixed-Base Operator
Appendix J - 132 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
Job Creation Forecast: The Prosperity Hub (Once Operational)
Building & Parking Existing New Building Total Est. # of Pavement Pavement Cost Hectares Building Buildings Cost Building Jobs Est. Payroll (m2) ($215.28/m2) (m2) (m2) (m2) Cost Created A 9.39 4,427 7,500 34,972 $2,684 $20,182,313 $7,528,772 70 $3,150,000 B 5.58 9,600 15,192 $2,147 $20,666,688 $3,270,534 24 $1,080,000 C 4.75 6,788 13,332 $3,221 $21,919,606 $2,870,113 52 $2,064,000
D1 72,000 86,747 $2,147 $155,000,160 $18,674,894 100 $4,500,000 48.38 D2 64,000 65,698 $2,147 $137,777,920 $14,143,465 280 $12,600,000
E 42.36 8,550 1,509 $3,221 $27,609,404 $324,858 20 $900,000 F 1.01 G 2.53 37,800 32,556 $1,611 $61,031,313 $7,008,656 20 $900,000 H 9.81 32,400 27,905 $1,611 $52,312,554 $6,007,388 97 $5,812,506
I 45.66 54,000 46,508 $2,147 $116,250,120 $10,012,242 150 $6,750,000
J 28.43 71,071 12,542 $2,147 $153,000,766 $2,700,042 150 $6,750,000
$765,750,843 $72,540,964 963 $44,506,506 *Not included are the estimated number of Construction Jobs Created
A - Public Campus D1 - Aerospace Comm & Industrial F - Agricultural I – Commercial & Industrial B - Flight School/FBO D2 - Aerospace Comm & Industrial G - Future Aviation Building J - Future Comm & Industrial C - Hotel E - Agro-Food Incubator H - General Aviation
Appendix J - 133 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
Stakeholder Consultation & Community Survey Summary of Stakeholder Session Responses
General Comments • Unsure of feasibility if all parties in the area think their Airport is most important. • The Airport should be regionalized if there is a benefit to the region. • It is imperative to identify time frames to move forward. • Ratepayers have concerns and have heard the same story about the Airport for a long time - the belief that it should be a regional airport, would like to see the Airport work, but there is no interest from tourists to fly into the community. • If the Airport closed, the lands would revert to NEC and rest as general township lands. • There are benefits for all people in the region, not just a few as some people believe. • The Airport plan cannot be open-ended. • Getting the Airport serviced would be beneficial. • If the runway is repaved or redone, should it be widened or lengthened? • Want to identify the synergies between the airports in the region. • If people invest in Wiarton, you might not have to invest in all the others. • It would be great to see government funding for several airports to act as hubs. • Identify opportunities for operational consistency across all the airports in the region and agreements in place for things like staff or equipment. • A commuter service would be beneficial. Believe there are transportation opportunities through supplying materials to local businesses. • A network could be created for the whole region if people could commercially fly into Wiarton from larger airports. • Some cost-sharing around jobs at the Airport or procurement would be beneficial. It would be nice to see collaboration with all airports. • Wiarton is an asset that is not entirely fully utilized as it could be; lots of potential. • In terms of supporting the overall area, a hub would be great, but worried about the location not being centrally located. It makes sense to have a regional airport to deliver core services. See Wiarton as being comparable to Waterloo Airport. • The Airport adds value to the region. • There needs to be a regional plan for funding. • The Airport supports access to customers and brings people into the area. • A regular flight service would help marketing. • A private sector involvement could reduce some of the risks. • The Airport is extremely important, and FlyGTA was great. • The Airport should be marketing better as well as the scheduled service. • Scheduled service to destinations north and south would be beneficial. • Flights coming in from more local regions (domestic tourism) might be the new focus. Need to be able to advertise and market the scheduled flights without cancellations.
Appendix K - 134 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
• Extremely supportive of the Airport, a big proponent of the regional approach, believes that is the way forward. • Customs is great to have at the Airport. It is an incredible asset that needs to be better utilized. • Seaplanes use the Airport when the weather is poor. • We need to educate and make people aware of the international status, landing capacity, port of entry. • Scheduled service would work better for business during weekdays. • The Airport needs to operate as a business. If money is not put in to support it, it will not succeed. Need to identify companies that could survive and thrive on-site. • Believe there is great potential for the Airport. • It would benefit everyone in the region. • A service to Ottawa would be great. There could be a positive impact on tourism throughout the peninsula and the whole area. It will drive economic growth in the area as well. • On board for collaboration opportunities that could help everyone. • Joint purchasing options would be beneficial but only if when required for delivery times (i.e., fuel). • Benefits to collaboration for things such as crack sealing and fuel deliveries Regionalizing Wiarton could assist with that. • It is important for every region to have an airport, and it needs to be looked at in the long term – 10, 20, 30 years out. • It is important that a path forward is determined, and it should involve Grey and Bruce at a regional level. • If a private enterprise contributed could be beneficial, so it's not as much of a tax burden. • Wiarton is a great airport, would like to see marketing connections between Wiarton and other airports. • All airports should participate in group events. • It would be good to have a Hope Airbase out of Wiarton. • Updated infrastructure could be more appealing and welcoming for pilots. • There are too many airports, and they’ll all fail and end up with nothing and regret it down the road. • Concerns that people are holding onto the Airport until there is something they have to pay for. • Needs to be some rationalization of this on a regional basis. • If I were the Mayor of the municipality with this challenge – in an impossible situation to expect the people to support the needs of the Airport.
Appendix K - 135 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
Development • Existing employment lands are built-out; thus, Airport is a good resource. • Develop areas for aviation and non-aviation. • Ministers are supportive and see a need for growth in the area. Create a plan that incorporating ideas and get funding support from the government. • Supporting tourism and bridging traffic concerns could be opportunities, as well as tourism packages. • An aviation and nuclear cluster at the Airport make sense. • If the Airport intends on developing, there would be a need for Indigenous consultations early on.
Governance Structure • Visions of a governance model where someone develops a business plan and handles the daily operations still require budget approvals. • Select a governance model that works well for all involved. • Questions surrounding the runway's capital costs and cost-sharing benefits. Concerns that Bruce County owns only 10% of the land so that tax revenue would go to Grey County and Bruce wouldn't see. There needs to be governance with an independent board of directors that looks at the Airport from a business perspective. • There is an opportunity to become an aeronautical hub from an economic development perspective. A combined Grey-Bruce authority could help provide a transparent operating model, maximize contracts for maintenance, operations, procurement, etc. • See an opportunity for collaboration between municipalities, but don't see a shared manager being successful. • Some governance involving stakeholders could help to govern decisions and expand the Airport.
Tourism • Tourism benefits exist with the Bruce Trail running through both counties. • Look into different ways of using air travel in the future. • There is difficulty managing tourism traffic during peak seasons – perhaps that is an opportunity that exists. • The Airport opens the door to more transportation options - it could also attract tourism from northern Ontario. • The key is to have regularly scheduled flights. The Airport could help people get to the area instead of driving and supplement that with cargo flights. Flights direct from Vancouver to Wiarton could assist with tourism. • Tourism packages would be helpful, but it is important to market the Airport regionally to allow for more funding and stability. • Have a shuttle that did a pickup at the Airport with FlyGTA coming in.
Appendix K - 136 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
• Helicopter service from the Airport to the helipad at Cobble Beach roughly twenty times a year. • See tourism increasing as a regional airport. • Tourism packages with involvement from the Park could be beneficial. • Interested in "greening" the visitor experience cycle and using the Airport could resolve some transportation issues. Should work with Parks Canada if offering a shuttle service. • Flights to Toronto would be beneficial as well as connecting other communities for fishing and hunting trips.
Economic Development • The Airport is an economic driver, and as such, businesses could settle in the region. • The risk of the Airport's absence is severe regarding economic, health and safety, tourism, and ability to bring in jobs. • The Airport is an asset to the region, and there is an excellent opportunity for industrial and commercial development and an industrial park. • There is a need to strengthen the relationships with nearby businesses. • The County would likely play a role in the Airport's future. • There is interest in moving forward with growth opportunities. • Sharing an economic development officer across the airports would be beneficial. • Opportunity for tourism throughout the region, including sightseeing flights. • Supporting a plan that would attract more aerospace to the region. • Identified an opportunity to have Wiarton be an excellent economic hub with business and agriculture, flying in parts for equipment. Over the long term, the Airport is seen as an opportunity. • Working with Bruce Power would be beneficial in many ways. • It might be a good idea to have economic development summits in the area and promote the Airport. Individuals from companies come up and spend weekends and family time in the area; Airport could support that. • There is potential for the Airport with respect to shipping medical isotopes with a short half life direct to the US or Germany. • Building a business area would be great to draw in business, definitely attractive to NII • Innovation park peaks a great deal of interest. • of innovation in the region to get companies to stay past NCR work at Bruce Power • Want to make the area attractive for years to come. • A viable regional airport is an added benefit to that – another attraction piece that could be offered for companies to have that asset in the back pocket. • Already 60+ companies operating in nuclear supply chain in region and keen to expand.
Appendix K - 137 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
Community Survey Summarized Notes:
A community survey was available online through smartphones, tablets, or computers, and 444 submissions were received. The survey was confidential, anonymous, and did not ask participants for personal information. Summarized below are general remarks and ideas from Survey Respondents, based on content themes that provide value-added details from the community.
Keep the Airport
• Selling the Airport would be the worst • Utilize and capitalize the Airport; Don't thing that Georgian Bluffs or Grey Bruce close it! County could do. • Rather than driving 3 - 4 hours away, • I am in favour of keeping the Airport people use small Airports and trains as even though it costs taxpayers money. a measure of travel. • I love the Airport and have taken part in • The Airport is a significant and unique Young Eagles. I would love to see it asset that should be maintained, even if used to its potential. not financially viable in the short term. • Please keep our Airport. It's vital to our • If the Airport closed, it will never be area. possible to get it back in the future. • • Keep up the good work, and please More and more people can now work remotely, increasing the potential for keep pushing to make your Airport commuter traffic between here and the viable. GTA, encouraging future commercial • If the Airport is not viable in the short and residential development and term, we could lose the designation, and increased tourism within the Bruce we would never regain it. It is an asset Peninsula. Reliable ground to the area that should be appreciated transportation links from the airport into and maintained. the surrounding regions would further • Property values are going up at enhance the Airport's viability. alarming rates, and people are moving • With the growth we have seen in the farther out of Toronto. Rural airports will area over the last few years, the Airport become very desirable in the future. will only become more important to the entire region over time. Sell the Airport
• If there is no forthcoming financial • The best use of this land is not an support from Grey and Bruce Counties Airport. and RT07, then the Airport should be • If the county councils choose not to buy sold as has previously been suggested. the Airport, it should be sold as an • If it can't be self-sufficient this year, then Airport or a piece of property to the sell the asset and let the taxpayers off highest bidder. the hook. • Sell the Airport into lots for Homes or sell to private enterprise.
Appendix K - 138 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
• I think the township should get rid of it, a • Please sell and/or decommission the waste of money. Airport asap. • It is an exciting piece of real estate, but • We should NOT be paying for this nothing more than that. Downgrade it to Airport as it is not now or in the a farmer's flying field level with minimal foreseeing future making any money. investment requirements on the part of • Time has already passed this facility by the township. and the sooner we divest out of it the • Sell to private investors. better!! Sell it as an on-going • An Airport in our area is not feasible. International Airport and be finished. Close it and develop the land as best as • Get rid of it. It's a white elephant. If you possible. cannot make it work with scheduled • Time to sell it off in lots. airlines, then you have no chance.
Promote the Airport • Establishing, expanding, and promoting • A marketing study would be very wise. Airport activities must be seen as a long- Students at Georgian College have done term commitment. A successful branding such projects in their credit program. experience takes a minimum of five Budget for marketing is critical to years, so if one considers efforts to success. establish a useable recognition for the • Greater efforts are needed to draw Airport (and what it offers) to be similar, multiple sustainable businesses to the then a five-year minimum must be in Airport to support the ongoing cost and place. Small steps - small victories and operations. continuous growth in activity, users and • For environmental and social reasons, I promotion will help achieve economic would not encourage the promotion of benefits for the Airport and the the Airport. surrounding businesses and • Marketing is the key to this Airport being municipalities. profitable. • Find a good experience promoter to do • The Airport has relied too heavily on the job. People will come! Do this without passive advertising and marketing and a raising resistance taxes. dubious vision of scheduled passenger • The Airport was not being promoted service. A more focused vision of enough on social media, especially clientele and a targeted marketing Facebook. campaign would have implications for a • The Airport needs to be promoted better more modest intermediate capital budget for tourism and future international and a marketing-oriented operating business opportunities. budget and staffing. • Promoting the Airport is an absolute • The unrealized benefit the Wiarton must. The earlier air service was not Airport has over many regional airports is promoted enough, and the schedule was the very close proximity it has to the limited. Town of Wiarton, the waterfront, and the natural beauty of the area. This is
Appendix K - 139 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
• Partnering with local motels, lodges, and overlooked by everyone. Most Airports air service would greatly generate local are located miles away from town, but tourism, as people look forward to short our Airport is within walking distance of getaways from the city. Attracting a town. larger hotel chain would go hand in hand with the Airport. Medical • The Airport is undoubtedly needed for • We were flown in by air ambulance ambulance and rescue operations. It was from Florida. It is the only Airport with a godsend when my husband was ill. a runway long enough to Instead of a 3-hr ambulance ride to accommodate. Otherwise, we would London University's front door, Ornge have gone to Kitchener or Barrie. medevac ambulance did it in 45 minutes. • Showcase and support emergency air We need to keep this facility running. travel. The town would do well to • The Airport is vital for medical promote and educate people about emergencies and refuelling of air the emergency vehicles that use the ambulances. facility. • The rescue and medical transport flights must continue to use the Airport.
Transportation • The Airport can really serve as an • It is a vital transportation link but important transportation hub for tourism increased air traffic disturbing the in the area. It is an underutilized asset. countryside and bird migration is a • Access to rental cars (either typical concern. Budget Car Rental type places or places • Look at the larger picture. Property like Zip Car and Communauto) is values are going up at alarming rates, needed. and people are moving farther out of • I think commuter options (busses and Toronto each day. Rural Airports will taxis on highway six) to vacation become very desirable soon, just like homes/hotels would complement travel they are in Europe. Rather than drive 3 - to the area. This might mean teaming up 4 hours, people use small Airports and with Owen sound transportation to be a trains as a measure of travel. spot to store coach busses for the peninsula.
Appendix K - 140 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
Regional Airport • If the County Councils of Grey and Bruce • We should support only one airport – agree to purchase the Airport from the Wiarton Keppel International Airport. This Township Georgian Bluffs, there may be a should be the only airport for all Grey good chance that they have the resources Bruce. and connections to make the Airport • Regionalize it, have Counties share costs profitable while meeting both counties' and profits, bring in jobs. needs. • Georgian Bluffs on its own can't any longer afford to carry it. • It should be a regional Airport and not • Be owned, maintained by region, not just municipal. Georgian Bluffs. • The two counties should take it over. • Grey and Bruce will never regret moving • The Airport should continue to operate, to establish a regional Airport. In 20 even though Georgian Bluffs taxpayers years, we will all have wished we did this support it, and it operates at a loss. I much like the Whitby Airport. believe the value it brings in emergency • Cost should be shared by the whole services, tourism and commerce are region, not just Georgian Bluffs. worth keeping. It would be preferable for it • The Airport needs to be, at minimum, to be supported by Grey and Bruce revenue neutral. Should not be taking $ Counties. from reserves to maintain it, and Georgian • Owen Sound has an airport that's better Bluffs cannot afford it at the expense of and closer to all of the things mentioned other municipal priorities, e.g., that draw people in and a large city recreational facilities, parks, children's centre. Taxpayers are on the hook when playgrounds, roads etc. the plane does not fill from Wiarton. It is a • If it were owned and run at County or no-brainer to ditch the cost and work with Provincial level, it would have better Owen Sound. chances of being marketed appropriately, • The Airport should be financially attracting revenue-generating businesses, supported by all regional taxpayers- not and possibly make money for the entire just the taxpayers of Georgian Bluffs. region. • Georgian Bluffs should not be solely • The region cannot support two Airports. supporting the financial impact of the They should be merged at the Airport. If it is a regional Airport, then management level and optimize expense. taxes should be spread amongst the • The Airport should be a regional Airport counties! paid for and supported by the region. • Support a Grey-Bruce County-owned • The Airport should be a regional airport Airport, but I do not support the continuing for all of grey Bruce. It would be tragic to operation of the Airport solely by the lose this asset. Township of Georgian Bluffs • One township can not continue to support the Airport
Appendix K - 141 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
Cost Concerns • The Airport needs to be self-sufficient, • I believe the Airport is vital and important. starting with this year's budget. No longer However, it should not be a financial a free pass. burden to one group. • It would be much better to spend tax • It will never be a viable Airport operation, dollars on providing adequate service on only a drain on the taxpayers of Georgian the roads than supporting the Airport's Bluffs\ It is unacceptable that Georgian operation. Bluffs pays all the bills to keep the Airport • A small investment in maintaining regularly open for the region. If the counties do not scheduled flights will help fund airport want to buy the Airport, sell it or the land to upgrades in the future. " the highest bidder. • Tired of our tax dollars going to keep the • If you want a small Airport that is ok. I do Airport open. not support wasteful expansion. If a private • If looking to make the Airport regional, the enterprise wants to pay, that is fine. costs to operate it should come from other • Like any private business, Airport places than the taxes of the residents of operations should be self-sustaining. Georgian Bluffs. • It should not be a burden on the • The area needs lots of infrastructure ratepayers to subsidize the rich people and spending before I would spend any their toys. taxpayers' money on airport improvement. • Let the rich guys have their airport if they • Suggest there be a regional airport want to pay for it. The rest of us are taxed management group. enough. • More investment in Emergency services • If it remains open, it should not be on the for outlying areas within the flight paths shoulders of the Georgian Bluffs taxpayer and environmental protections to • Support growth and expansion but not if it remediate any potential mishaps. costs the majority for the benefits of so • We already experience the negative few. impacts of increased tourists. I do not believe there are enough resources to serve the influx of tourists and locals.
Appendix K - 142 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
Development/Business • This Airport is a very rare gem. The • The Airport needs to have the runway potential for area development (and it is resurfaced soon and other upgrades. If happening at an ever-accelerating rate) completed, it shows investors in the will be enhanced by an Airport facility that aviation community that Council is rivals large cities in Southern Ontario serious about keeping the Airport open (Windsor, London, Kitchener, Toronto. I and viable for future aviation will emphasize again that the operation investments. should be truly regional, with a • Your small investment in maintaining representative Airport Board and funding regularly scheduled flights will be a way on a regional basis. of funding Airport upgrades in the future. • Sell some land or long-term lease for • I would like to see businesses located on manufacturers to be based at an Airport. over 800 acres of land and a hotel with a • Sell land for those that want a fly-in great restaurant or two. residential community like in Florida or • The location is suitable for plane even additional hangars." maintenance or possible freight • Engage COPA Pilots and have them fly companies. children and adults more frequently, open • Many municipalities have attracted a flight school or have flights for interested aviation-related business to their small parties at an affordable rate that wouldn't airports to provide stable revenue. After skyrocket - aviation's biggest problem. that, any tourist traffic is a bonus. • The Airport has a unique position in our • Awareness and partnerships are key. area with the length and size of its Few people knew about the commercial existing runway. It can handle larger air service, and it failed to succeed. aircraft and jet traffic that otherwise could Viable businesses looking for space are not land within 150 km and presents not made aware that WKIA is open for opportunities for aviation-related business. businesses (such as an aircraft paint • Forty years from now, this could be facility or avionics company) to provide viable with aggressive investment, but it services to the industry while employing is not clear who floats it for that long. local tradespeople. And it requires significant capital • Great potential exists to bring tourism and investment even to be possible. capital to the area, much like the Muskoka airport currently does.
Appendix K - 143 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
Scheduled Service • Flights to southern destinations. • With new technologies for air travel, the • Flight opportunities to areas other than Airport could become a vital link for an just the GTA (Thunder Bay, Timmons, inbound trip to the area. Air taxi services etc.). could be offered at competitive rates with • It would be nice to expand service to other modes of travel, e.g., major airports such as Detroit, Lansing, electric/autonomous flight. This may Buffalo, etc. Ground transportation is seem far off, but with the current limited to those Airports and is very costly acceleration in developing these and time-consuming. technologies, the future may be nearer • Engage large airline services like Air than it seems. Canada, WestJet, Sunwing, etc., and gain • I would LOVE to see flights return, military aircraft. especially during the busiest times of the • Make commuter flights simple, affordable, year. Flights between Wiarton and and available. It takes time for people to Toronto during the late afternoons/early learn about the service and use it. You evenings on Fridays & Sundays would cannot flip flop every 18 months when you be great! Also, additional flights on Long see lukewarm results. Be consistent and Weekends and Stat Holidays build a customer base. • Please bring back the fight options to Toronto with more diverse trip times
Appendix K - 144 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
Tourism • Current means of tourism marketing are • Promote Airport as a fly-in destination. needed. The beauty of the region is • Fly-in packages will not work until we have Ontario's best-kept secret. a better hotel or resort. • The area is only 'half a year' for most • Suggest Off-Season Events: Snowmobile tourists; there is a lack of accommodation, Trails, / Safety courses, Outdoor Markets, restaurants, and car rental agencies. Motorcycle Training Courses, Car • Tourism continues to grow in Wiarton and Manufacturer Test Courses / Test Drives, the Bruce Peninsula, and the Airport needs Bicycle Events for Kids, to grow alongside it. • Encouraging tourism with a high carbon • Using the Airport for tourism can be very footprint seems wrong unless you can costly, and only a minimal amount of offset it. If you promote tourism via fly-ins, people can afford it. have you considered the impact of the • A travel package (flight, hotel stay, tourist noise of increased air traffic on the homes attraction) partnership with business in the takeoff and landing path? partnership can draw people to the area. • I have flown twice from Toronto Island to Shuttle service or car rental business (start Wiarton and return with FlyGTA and, with three cars for rental) or even a without a doubt, would use that service courtesy vehicle for general aviation pilots again if it were made available. The (like in the US) might be required. convenience of getting home from • Tourism packages with Toronto (like a downtown Toronto to Wiarton in less than flight from Wiarton and a Jays game or an hour is worth the flight cost. Raptor’s game, or a concert • It would be great to teach classes (all • No merit during COVID. Tourism should be ages) about weather, astronomy, placed on a halt until everyone can go photography and support local tourism. about travels normally. • The Airport should be an active venue for • Change the name- make it more the Willie Festival and provide welcoming. Where is the Airport...in weather/nature observation/educational Kepple, Wiarton or Georgian Bluffs! Love attractions. Georgian Bluffs or Bluewater International • Offer a four-season tour pass so families if our focus is tourism, hiking, fishing, can schedule flights to appreciate their native arts and crafts, horticulture, area each season. gardening and winter sports. • Market to Toronto travel packages to local • Consider a tourist info center at the Airport residents that include flights, hotel and promote a car rental agency on-site. accommodations, and activities based on • Use the Airport to promote Ontario interest (e.g., Blue Jay Tickets, theatre, vacation packages. Spa experience, food, etc.) • We already have too many tourists coming • It would be advantageous to have to the Bruce Peninsula. We don't need destination tours out of the Airport more. We turn many away as it is.
Appendix K - 145 Wiarton Keppel International Airport Feasibility Study
General Comments • The Airport has great potential if managed • Do not see commerce outside of the real by experienced professionals. estate, which will only increase taxes and • People want the Airport to communicate property's more than these small towns with them, rather than hear information can handle. after the fact. • The City of Owen Sound should shut • As an international Airport, we should be down the Billy Bishop Airport and support charging landing/takeoff charges and for the Wiarton Airport. The travel time from hangar usage. Wiarton to Owen Sound is not that far. • If they want this Airport to grow, • Concentrate on bringing industry to the upgrades, airstrips, buildings, etc., are area to create good-paying jobs. needed. • This Airport is just a stopover and a jump to places north of Wiarton.
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