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A Residential Electricity Case Study in Ontario

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A Residential Electricity Case Study in Ontario Exploring the Feasibility of Achieving Energy Self-sufficiency — A Residential Electricity Case Study in Ontario by Hang Li A thesis presented to the University of Waterloo in fulfillment of the thesis requirement for the degree of Master of Environmental Studies in Planning Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 2013 © Hang Li 2013 Author’s Declaration I hereby declare that I am the sole author of this thesis. This is a true copy of the thesis, including any required final revisions, as accepted by my examiners. I understand that my thesis may be made electronically available to the public. ii Abstract As energy security and climate issues are emerging as global concerns, it is commonly agreed that a transition from a conventional centralized energy system, which is largely based on combustion of fossil fuel, to a more sustainable decentralized energy system that includes mainly renewable energy sources is necessary and urgent. Due to the highly variable geographical qualities of renewable energy sources, spatial energy planning is becoming essential. This study aims to address the challenges in linking spatial modeling with assessment of regional energy consumption and renewable energy supply potential. A novel approach for exploring the feasibility of achieving energy self-sufficiency through matching energy deficit areas with energy surplus areas is proposed. A method for energy deficit and surplus area matching is developed and implemented in a VBA- based tool that serves as a decision-support tool by exploring possible future deployment of renewable energy in decentralized ways. Achieving Ontario residential electricity self-sufficiency through solar PV energy on an annual basis is explored as a case study. The results show that it is technically feasible for Ontario to be residential electricity self-sufficient through the development of solar PV energy with energy deficit areas within the region getting energy supply from nearby energy surplus areas. The case study implies that regional residential electricity self- sufficiency is achievable and it is useful for planners and policy makers to bear the regional energy deficit-surplus matching idea in mind when making urban and energy plans. iii Acknowledgements Foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Prof. Geoff Lewis for the continuous support of my master study and research, for his patience, motivation, understanding, and immense knowledge. His guidance helped me in all the time of researching and writing of this thesis. I could not have imaged having a better advisor and mentor for my master degree study. Prof. Lewis is also a good friend, whose kindness, sense of humor, and passion for sci-fi movies added considerably to my graduate experience. Besides my advisor, I would like to thank the rest of my thesis committee, Prof. Rob Feick and Prof. Paul Parker for their encouragement, insightful comments and questions. In addition, a big thank you to Prof. Feick for giving me the access to his Spatial Decision Support lab, which has been a great help for conducting my research and writing this thesis. A very special thanks goes to my dear friend Ye Lu for coding my developed algorithm into the Energy Matching tool for this thesis research. His help is tremendous and greatly appreciated! I must also thank my fellow lab mates: April, Ashley and Daniel for providing technical assistance for me on using ArcGIS software. Last but not the least, I would like to thank my family for supporting me spiritually and materially throughout my life. iv Table of Contents Author’s Declaration ........................................................................................................ ii Abstract ............................................................................................................................. iii Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................... iv Table of Contents .............................................................................................................. v List of Figures .................................................................................................................. vii List of Tables .................................................................................................................. viii List of Appendices ............................................................................................................ ix Chapter 1 Introduction ............................................................................................... 1 1.1 Research Background .................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Research Questions and Objectives ............................................................................ 3 1.3 Scope & Approach ....................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Thesis Organization ..................................................................................................... 4 Chapter 2 Literature Review ..................................................................................... 6 2.1 Energy Security ............................................................................................................ 7 2.1.1 What is Energy Security? .......................................................................................... 7 2.1.2 Energy Consumption ................................................................................................. 9 2.1.3 Energy Supply ......................................................................................................... 14 2.1.4 Ontario Energy Security .......................................................................................... 16 2.2 Climate Change .......................................................................................................... 18 2.2.1 GHG Emissions ....................................................................................................... 18 2.2.2 Electricity Generation .............................................................................................. 20 2.2.3 Centralized Electricity System ................................................................................ 22 2.3 Sustainable Electricity System .................................................................................. 24 2.3.1 Decentralized Energy System .................................................................................. 24 2.3.2 Renewable Energy Development ............................................................................ 32 2.4 Energy Deficit-Surplus Matching ............................................................................. 38 2.4.1 Urban Metabolism & Self-sufficient Cities ............................................................. 38 2.4.2 Energy Self-Sufficiency ........................................................................................... 39 2.4.3 City-Hinterland Relationship ................................................................................... 42 v Chapter 3 Methods .................................................................................................... 45 3.1 Research Method........................................................................................................ 45 3.2 A Case Study: Province of Ontario .......................................................................... 50 3.2.1 Divide Ontario Study Region into Areas ................................................................. 52 3.2.2 Data Description ...................................................................................................... 53 3.2.3 Estimate Ontario Electricity Supply & Demand ...................................................... 54 3.2.4 Energy Deficit-Surplus Matching Tool and Its Development ................................. 59 3.2.5 Ontario Residential Electricity Self-Sufficiency Case Study: ................................. 68 3.2.6 Exploratory Scenarios .............................................................................................. 74 3.3 Summary ..................................................................................................................... 79 Chapter 4 Results & Discussion ............................................................................... 80 4.1 Ontario Residential Electricity Self-Sufficiency from PV ...................................... 80 4.2 PV Electricity Suppliers for Major Urban CSDs .................................................... 84 4.2.1 Toronto-Ottawa-Mississauga ................................................................................... 88 4.3 Exploratory Scenarios ............................................................................................... 95 4.3.1 Scenario A: Demand: Supply = 1: 0.5 ..................................................................... 95 4.3.2 Scenario B: Demand: Supply = 1: 10 ...................................................................... 96 4.3.3 Scenario Summary ................................................................................................... 96 4.4 Optional Parameters Function Illustration ........................................................... 101 4.4.1 Distance Cap .......................................................................................................... 101 4.4.2 Basic Electricity Demand
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