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The Arab Spring: on Mass Protests and Political Openings Merve Bilgen

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The Arab Spring: on Mass Protests and Political Openings Merve Bilgen THE ARAB SPRING: ON MASS PROTESTS AND POLITICAL OPENINGS MERVE BİLGEN IŞIK UNIVERSITY 2019 THE ARAB SPRING: ON MASS PROTESTS AND POLITICAL OPENINGS MERVE BİLGEN B.A., Department of International Relations, Işık University, 2014 Submitted to the Graduate School of Social Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in International Relations IŞIK UNIVERSITY 2019 THE ARAB SPRING: ON MASS PROTESTS AND POLITICAL OPENINGS Abstract During the past decade, public resistance increased against authoritarian regimes throughout the world from the Middle East to Europe and the United States. These large-scale protests have shown that popular uprisings can overthrow autocratic leaders. The aim of this thesis is explaining how leaders react when they face a popular uprising (mass protest). In case of a demonstration, do leaders respond with democratic opening or repression? This thesis analyzes the reason why authoritarian leaders of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria reacted differently to similar uprisings and experienced different transitional outcomes on the way to democracy following the Arab uprisings in 2011. More specifically, this thesis analyzes how leaders responded to the uprisings in the Arab countries through the Arab Spring with the goal of contributing to general theories that aim to predict leader behavior (such as embracing a democratic speech vs. using police pressure and the approach of military) in response to mass protests. The thesis argues that leaders’ initial speeches can predict post-movement political environment. When leaders adopt a moderate speech and police violence against protestors is low, then there is more chance for peaceful change through a democratic election. Key words; Arab Spring, political opening, authoritarian regime, popular uprising, democracy ii ARAP BAHARI: HALK AYAKLANMASI VE SİYASİ AÇILIM Özet Geçtiğimiz on yılda, Ortadoğu’dan Avrupa ve Amerika’ya kadar tüm dünya genelinde otoriter liderlere ve rejimlere karşı halk direnişleri artmıştır. Bu geniş çaplı protestolar otoriter liderlerin halk ayaklanmalarıyla devrilebileceğini göstermiştir. Bu tezin amacı da, bir liderin halk ayaklanması (kitlesel protesto) ile karşı karşıya kaldığında bu durumlara nasıl tepki göstereceğini açıklamaktadır. Herhangi bir protesto ve halk ayaklanmasından sonra liderler demokratik açılmaya mı veya kapanmaya mı gider? Bu tez Tunus, Mısır, Libya ve Suriye'deki otoriter liderlerin benzer halk ayaklanmalarına neden farklı tepki gösterdiklerini ve 2011'deki Arap ayaklanmaları sonrasında demokrasiye geçiş açısından farklı sonuçlar yaşamalarının nedenlerini analiz ediyor. Bu dört Arap ülkesinin benzer otoriter rejimlere sahip oldukları görülmesine rağmen Arap Baharı sırasında liderler kitlesel protesto gösterileri karşısında neden farklı tepkiler verdiler? Daha belirgin bir şekilde, bu çalışma liderlerin Arap Baharı sürecinde Arap ülkelerindeki ayaklanmalara nasıl cevap verdiklerini açıklamakta ve kitlesel protestolara cevap olarak lider davranışını (örneğin demokratik ve yatıştırıcı konuşmalar yapmak veya polis baskısı uygulamak ve ordunun protestoculara yaklaşımı gibi) tahmin etmeye yönelik genel teorilere katkıda bulunmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu çalışma, liderlerin ayaklanmaların başlangıcındaki ılımlı söylemlerinin ve protestoculara karşı polis şiddeti kullanıp kullanmama durumunun ve buna ilaveten ordunun protestoculara karşı yaklaşımının Arap Baharı ayaklanmaları sırasında liderlerin demokratik açılıma gitmesine büyük ölçüde etki ettiğini savlamaktadır. Anahtar kelimeler: Arap Baharı, siyasi açılım, otoriter rejim, halk ayaklanması, demokrasi iii Acknowledgements I would like to express the deepest appreciation to my supervisor, Assoc. Prof. Seda Demiralp, who has the attitude and the substance of a competent advisor: she continually and convincingly conveyed a spirit of adventure in regard to research, an excitement with teaching. Without her guidance and support, this dissertation would not have been possible. On my Bachelor’s degree, I also benefited from her knowledge and support. Additionally, I am thankful to Assoc. Prof. Ödül Celep for his contributions to my Bachelor and his participation in my thesis committee with his advice and comments, also I am grateful to Asst. Prof. İbrahim Mazlum, who has in my thesis committee as well. I am also grateful to my beloved family; I am most thankful for you; my mother and my father. You made an effort to raise your four daughters and support me all my life, both financial and especially psychological during the process of my thesis. Thank you to my sisters, especially my older sister Gülşah, and my brother in law for giving me support during this challenging time. Next, I would like to thank my best friend, Berrin, for her continuous support and encouragement in helping me complete my thesis. Love you all, iv List of Contents Abstract ....................................................................................................................... ii Özet ............................................................................................................................. iii Acknowledgements .................................................................................................... iv List of Contents .......................................................................................................... v List of Tables ............................................................................................................ vii Lists of Abbreviations ............................................................................................. viii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................. 1 1.1 Relevance of the study ...................................................................................... 1 1.2 Aim of the study ................................................................................................ 2 1.3 Historical Framework ...................................................................................... 3 1.4 Research Question ............................................................................................ 3 1.5 Methodology ...................................................................................................... 5 1.6 Organization of the study ................................................................................ 8 CHAPTER 2: THE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ......................................... 9 2.1 Definitions ......................................................................................................... 9 2.1.1 Democratization and Liberalization ..................................................................................... 9 2.1.2 Authoritarian Regimes ........................................................................................................ 13 2.1.3 Transitions .......................................................................................................................... 14 CHAPTER 3: BACKGROUND OF THE ARAB SPRING ................................. 23 3.1 States and Uprisings in the Middle East ....................................................... 23 3.1.1 Factors that Paved the way to the Arab Spring ................................................................... 24 3.1.1.1 The Economic Factors ............................................................................................... 24 3.1.1.1.1 Corruption ............................................................................................................... 25 3.1.1.1.2 Unemployment......................................................................................................... 25 3.1.1.1.3 Natural Resource (Oil) ............................................................................................ 26 3.1.1.2 The Social Factors .......................................................................................................... 26 3.1.1.2.1 Education ................................................................................................................ 26 3.1.1.2.2 Young population .................................................................................................... 27 3.1.1.2.3 Freedom of speech and press .................................................................................. 27 3.1.1.2.4 The Social media ..................................................................................................... 28 3.1.1.3 The Political Factors ...................................................................................................... 29 3.1.1.3.1 Regime types ............................................................................................................ 29 3.1.1.3.2 Political freedoms .................................................................................................... 30 3.1.2 Tunisia ................................................................................................................................ 31 3.1.3 Egypt .................................................................................................................................. 32 v 3.1.4 Libya ................................................................................................................................... 33 3.1.4 Syria.................................................................................................................................... 34 CHAPTER 4: ANALYSIS ......................................................................................
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