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Between Foreign Involvement and Civil War: the Geopolitical Scenario of Libya. What Role for Italy and the EU?

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Between Foreign Involvement and Civil War: the Geopolitical Scenario of Libya. What Role for Italy and the EU? Dipartimento di Scienze Politiche Cattedra Geopolitical Scenario and Political Risk Between Foreign Involvement and Civil War: The Geopolitical Scenario of Libya. What Role for Italy and the EU? Prof. Giuseppe Scognamiglio Prof. Lucio Caracciolo RELATORE CORRELATORE La Torre Diego - Matr. 637132 CANDIDATO Anno Accademico 2019/2020 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 3 1. HISTORICAL OVERVIEW: ORIGINS AND FLAWS OF LIBYAN NATION- BUILDING PROCESS ................................................................................................................... 6 1.1. Origins of Libya: A History of Regions and Colonialism .............................................. 6 1.2 The Italian Colonial Era: “The Fourth Shore” ................................................................ 10 1.2.1 The Fascist “Riconquista” ............................................................................................... 14 1.3 The United Kingdom of Libya: an accidental state ........................................................ 16 1.4 Qadhafi’s Libya: Institutionalized Statelessness .............................................................. 20 2. LIBYA’S FRAGMENTATION: FROM REVOLUTION TO CIVIL WAR ................. 26 2.1 The February 17 Revolution .............................................................................................. 26 2.2 The Failed Democratic Transition and the Civil War .................................................... 28 2.3 Actors and Interests at Stake .............................................................................................. 31 2.3.1 Haftar, the LAAF & the House of Representatives .................................................... 33 2.3.2 The GNA, al-Sarraj and the anti-LNA militias ............................................................ 36 2.3.4 The Gulf States ................................................................................................................. 39 2.3.5 Egypt ................................................................................................................................... 43 2.3.6 Turkey ................................................................................................................................. 44 2.3.7 Russia .................................................................................................................................. 46 3. UNITED NATIONS MEDIATION IN LIBYA ................................................................ 48 3.1 Early Mediation Attempts................................................................................................... 49 3.2 United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) ................................................... 52 3.3 The National Political Dialogue ......................................................................................... 55 3.4 The Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) ............................................................................ 58 3.5 The Action Plan for Libya .................................................................................................. 63 3.6 The Berlin International Conference on Libya ................................................................ 65 4. CARVING OUT A ROLE FOR ITALY AND THE EU ................................................. 68 4.1 EU’s Inconsistent Foreign Policy in Libya ....................................................................... 68 4.1.1 EU’s Operation EUNAVFOR MED Irini ................................................................... 73 4.2 Italian-Libyan Relations ...................................................................................................... 75 4.3 The French Anomaly ........................................................................................................... 79 4.4 Management of Migration Flows: Security vs Human Rights ....................................... 83 4.4.1 The Italian-Libyan Memorandum of Understanding on Migration .......................... 86 4.5 Carving Out a Role for Italy and the EU ......................................................................... 89 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................ 92 BIBLIOGRAPHY .......................................................................................................................... 95 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................... 103 INTRODUCTION Nine years after the fall of Qadhafi’s regime in 2011, Libya’s geopolitical scenario is still characterized by political, military and social instability. Not only is the process of democratic transition failed but there has also been an escalation in the intensity and cruelness of the hostilities, after Marshal Khalifa Haftar, head of the Libyan National Army, launched his campaign to conquer the country in 2019. Although the Turkish intervention has altered the military balance of power, leading to the liberation of Tripoli and to the withdrawal of LNA forces from Western Tripolitania, the risk of armed conflict is still concrete. The recent announcement of a ceasefire between the Government of National Accord and the House of Representatives is threatened by the military stalemate around Sirte and al-Jufrah, the persistent oil blockade and the fragmentation in the unreformed security sector. Finally, Libya is experiencing mounting social unrest caused by the worsening of the living standards due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic crisis and the increasing claims of corruption towards both governmental institutions. The present thesis aims at analysing the current geopolitical scenario of Libya, focussing on the flaws behind its institution and nation-building process which have caused the revolts of the Arab Spring to result into a protracted civil war, observing how the interference of foreign regional and international actors was instrumental in extending the conflict. The first part provides an historical overview on the origins of Libya, with a focus on regionalism and colonialism, two distinctive features which have influenced Libyan history from its early days to the present. The first chapter will then retrace the main steps of Libyan nation building process, underlining the role of the Sanusi family, the impact of the Italian invasion and the rise of Qadhafi’s regime. Chapter 2 describes the unfolding of the Libyan revolution from the eruption of the first uprisings in 2011 and the consequent NATO military intervention, to the failed democratic transition and the outbreak of the first Libyan civil war in 2014. To follow, an account of the main actors and interests at stake will be provided, concurrently to the description of the recent political and military events in which they were involved. As the civil war has rapidly transformed into an international crisis, it is increasingly relevant to understand the networks of alliances and the geopolitical objectives of each participant in the conflict. This analysis will move from a microscopic to a macroscopic dimension and will be divided as follows: first the local coalitions, including tribes, municipalities, Islamist and secular armed militias, and terrorist groups; subsequently, the regional actors which have financed or supported competing local actors during the last decade; finally, the international powers mostly involved in the conflict, namely Russia and Turkey. Chapter 3 presents the process of international mediation conducted by the United Nations since 2011, both within the Security Council and through the institution of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya. The analysis will follow the chronological unfolding of the different mediation efforts together with the examination of the work of each mediator, their mandate, their mediation strategies and the political context in which they operated. The final Chapter of the research addresses the response of Italy and the EU to the Libyan crisis, describing the institutional setting of the European Union and the contrasting views of the different Member States which have influenced the decision-making during the 2011 revolution and beyond. Particular attention will be given to the latest EU military mission in the Mediterranean, Operation IRINI. To follow, Chapter 4 will provide an account of the recent Italian-Libyan relations and of the Italian geopolitical interests in the country, proceeding then to analyse the unique and diverging foreign policy of France and underlining how this prevented the EU from operating consistently as a single actor. Then, the Chapter illustrates the response of the EU Member States to the migratory crisis and the policies adopted, taking into account their consequences in terms of respect of human rights and compliance with international law. Finally, it attempts to define a future role for Italy and the EU by analysing some of their future policy options in the region. 1. HISTORICAL OVERVIEW: ORIGINS AND FLAWS OF LIBYAN NATION-BUILDING PROCESS Any analysis of the present geopolitical situation in Libya requires having deep regard for its past, as the history of Libya has been deeply characterized by regionalism, colonialism, geographical and societal frictions, and external interventions, elements which have endured through the centuries
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